OUT FOR THIS BEFORE YOU SAY STOCK MARKET CRASH!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: well ladies and gentlemen I appreciate you clicking on this video it's been a few days since I've had some time in the evening but patreon members I hope that you have really been enjoying the fact that I at least have time throughout the day to give a few updates of what to really look for and get out those daily expected minutes so I do appreciate you being a part of patreon if this information you do see it as helpful and it does really really impact the way that you are successful if it is helpful to you you can check out patreon down in the description for times like this times like this where I am a little more busy towards the afternoon towards the evening and therefore I usually put out content on patreon pretty regularly when that does take place so I hope you guys are looking at what we talked about over on patreon because we talked about something right over here now we first off want to start by going into volatility we're gonna get you those daily expected news and patreon members we will have the rest of those daily expected news for all the stocks on the right side of your screen posted in just a little bit after this video but I think we need to go over volatility we need to see this okay so something that we did discuss on patreon was we need to see if any kind of divergence if any kind of lower high does pop up here for the two-hour chart especially if we lean towards that you know I think we talked about it in here if we see this able to go negative but this is kind of in that middle spot I don't want to sit there and be like oh yeah this is this is just a negative move that's gonna reject by that center I know this is still curling up into positive territory and we discussed how that would cause us to have to react for a moment but over on the spy we discussed hey we looked at something very simply and just went every single time that we are seeing some kind of divergence when the daily scale is by that center line we need to watch for if some kind of trap forms and that would be where we look for higher lows where we look for divergences on those two-hour charts now we can pull that back over to volatility right now and say okay well if the two-hour chart is able to cross down over here is this a lower high well yes it would be right it would be a lower high and that would tell us that the daily scale can then curl to the downside we'll watch for any reaction later but for now that would mean that the daily scale is highly probable to cross down it is a little bit further from the center line so we'll still look for any kind of reaction but we do notice that if the two-hour was to curl down tomorrow right it was to curl down right in here hey that could easily be a lower high that starts to put you in what put you in a negative trend which usually means what for the market hey we might even get some kind of squeeze now this is important to know that that is something to react to as of right now volatility is heading to the upside and you have no confirmation that any downside is coming so I just wanted to make that clear that this is pointed up in positive territory on that MACD this could easily just pop off with an earnings or something like that so we have to make sure that there are confirmations for this and then a plan for if that goes wrong the 30-minute chart here very very nice for now a little bit of kind of like chop going on the way up are we going to set that trap into Friday are we going to make some kind of divergence tomorrow are we going to be able to curl this to the downside start the day up and then actually fade that move and end Friday kind of at a dip but that would be interesting to see if over the weekend we see some kind of 30-minute divergence form that actually says hey that two-hour charts getting more and more likely to cross down if we don't see a 30-minute divergence if we don't see a 30 minute lower high well then we have to consider that this bad boy can just keep going to the upside so this is how we read into volatility but I think we can pull it over to the SPY and get you guys some daily expected news remember this about the daily scale we are still positive we are still positive here guys we are still in positive territory we have not lost extra critical levels or if you really want to talk about it really really critical levels down here we haven't done that we haven't seen a huge amount of volatility come in we're overall just testing that 19 to 20 level a few times so as of this moment the daily scale is still in positive territory so as we look at the fact that we have not the SPY is the only index that has not hit the annual expected move that salmon looking line there that's 796 10 you probably see me saying hey the SPY still could go right that I'm still leaning towards the SPY going to 800 by the end of the year I'm still holding to that even with the confirmations we've seen lately I haven't seen anything to make me flip that script just yet well all that has to happen here is the daily scale turns to the upside and where are you pointing directly to well you're pointing directly to that annual expected move right test the high go make a new one why can't that be the annual expect move maybe this is going to be our shot to there and then we set up reversal signals kind of going into that 2027 time frame that would be very very interesting and then we'll have to talk about the weekly chart maybe over the weekend so I appreciate you being here if you want to subscribe and join us for our weekend update I will hopefully have the time to put out two updates this weekend one on Saturday for the macro side one on Sunday to kind of prep you with those weekly expected news and daily expected news for the week ahead as we go into the shorter time frames though this is something that we mentioned over and over and over again over on patreon and that's the fact that even if we take out this low we have seen multiple multiple multiple times just in the last two years more times than not actually that even when you take out the critical level you still want to want to heavily watch for any kind of trap signal so as we are testing these levels we want to watch for any kind of divergence any kind of divergence like this is what we drew up or any kind of higher low like this right we kind of look for something like this over here we get the head and shoulders going that would be the higher low but as of right now the divergence scenario is looking like it is formed here not confirmed so daily expect to move 771 29 to the upside 756 63 to the downside why am i mentioning a higher low on the two hour why am i mentioning a divergence well because when you see those things especially when they are forming on the downside about to say hey we can head to the upside again the market most of the time heads up and when you see those signals especially when the daily chart that we just showed you is right by that center line you've got to be watching out because this market might want to go straight up to 800 by the end of the year now what do we see here we do see that it is formed we see that we have a formation of divergence on your macd this is exactly what we're looking for on patreon as well we see that on the rsi right here so we have the forms of divergence on both indicators at the same time we have a lower high potential right these things are not confirmed yet they would be something to react to we see that a lower high from the vix which adds credibility to this if all these things were to confirm at the same time and then we can go look over at the queues and see what's happening over there so as of right now we have a two hour potential double bottom taking place here with those confirmations this would more so be a double bottom if this were to cross up it would be very close to going into a positive trend which means test the high go make a new one get a nice strong move to take back the five day moving average maybe get some kind of retest that then is able to continue and guess where you're pointing again you're pointing directly to that annual expected move that is overall the bull case but remember that the bear case is still alive and well we're going to go over the 30 minute chart in a moment the bear case right now is hey we're curled down in negative territory if this is not able to confirm or confirms and fails well then right now you're just pointing directly down right if this is really going to be awful then there should be no forms of divergence there should be no forms of low of higher lows we should just see a big move to the downside that then gives a bounce that then continues right and continuation for the bears becomes very probable as of right now we need to pay attention to both i want to be aware that right now i need to protect my capital but if i confirm over here then i might have a nice little trade setup and it can be as simple as that so let's go into the 30 minute chart and see hey how likely is it that we curl that two hour up well we see that the 30 minute chart the last time that we did get somewhat of a bounce you notice that there was a 30 minute divergence the last time we got a two hour move to the upside just like we discussed going into the week hey look for a divergence right here to confirm that then leads to an upside move for the two hour to get some kind of bounce before a roll well that informed a divergence on the macd it formed a divergence on the rsi at the same time and that led to this bounce so what if we see the same thing in the near price action but as we are at those lower levels for this macd we might have a little bit of time to spend down here but i would be looking for those two things as well from the 30 minute chart do i see a high or low in any form for the 30 minute chart that'll tell me a lot about the two hour and then the two hour will tell me a lot about the daily do i see a form of divergence on the 30 minute chart formed in the next couple of sessions well that would tell me a lot about the 30 minute being able to confirm that tell me a lot about the two hour and if the two hour confirms that tells me a lot about the daily it's almost like looking back to the full technical analysis course that's over on patreon in the shop you actually get it for only a hundred dollars if you join patreon you can get it for a hundred bucks it uh it overall talks about a golden setup now the golden setup is kind of more for sometimes more volatile times like bear but you can utilize it during times like this if you see it form it is a high probable scenario to play out so we will look for any time that we get a cross-up that is closer to the center line we will look for any kind of squeeze that leads to a higher low we will look for any kind of divergence and that will tell us a lot about this market as we go into the queues we want to see if this is forming both ways right is this forming on the queues and the spy walvix has the potential for that lower high is that formed all of those are formed so is it formed on the queues and you see as of right now you do have that divergence very significant on the rsi pretty darn significant on the macd getting you a little closer to that center line right getting you just a little bit closer so we see that we're going to new lows but the macd has not reached those new lows yet this could go away tomorrow right the bears could clamp down and this could flush all the way down to that weekly expect move we can get a bounce and then continuation starts to become more and more probable but as this is formed we want to pay attention if this turns around and curls to the upside because if that curls to the upside uh-oh well maybe we need to look at the daily chart so the daily chart is right by the center line if this stopped and turn around that two hour confirms and you see a continuation day the next day if this stopped short and this turned to the upside well wouldn't that be right by the center line wouldn't that confirm directly into positive territory that is by this is by no me and we've gotten out of worse conditions before and we were able to navigate that as well right but this is not even in those complex conditions if the daily is able to curl up here it's going positive which means test the high go make a new one yeah we pay attention for rolling of course we do we see the structure but as of right now you're in a positive trend with no reversal signals no reversal signals on the daily chart which tells us that a confirmation over here a lot of the time will lead to a tesla high if not a new one where we can go and make those divergences outside of the annual expected move that we talked about months ago when we tagged it over here and said there's probably going to be a pullback here and then we're going to see the keys be able to break through it right that's what we overall discussed so you know i don't want to confuse you with this in any way what i just want to say here plainly is if the daily scale turns up if the daily scale confirms on this macd you're in positive territory and that means the probabilities to test the high and go make a new one are very much so there so the two hour chart's important because if this two hour confirms momentum is telling us that the daily can start to turn around as well so let's look at the 30 minute chart and give you daily expected news here for the queues 7 17 30 to the upside 691 64 to the downside if we just flush down into here well we're gonna have to see if those two hour divergences are still intact if we can form anything down here but as of this moment we have nothing really going for you right we have nothing going for you on the macd not like the last time the last time you had this thin little divergence here but a decently significant one on the rsi we don't have this over here right now so we do have time to spend over here but what does it tell me as a trader i might have to practice some patience if i like two hour trades because i might be waiting for some kind of 30 minute higher low i might be waiting for some kind of 30 minute divergence before i make that decision right all of these things are good to understand and it's all taking place where well just above the monthly expected move so this is absolutely fantastic what this means is why do we look for divergence why do we look for a higher low we need to get closer to the center line in my opinion but i will be looking out for any scenario and posting it to patreon if i see it it might just be a screenshot or something if i don't have time but if i do have the availability to talk about these things while they are happening during the day i will put a video update out on patreon iwm is something that we talked about as well iwm we said this thing needs to get going fast and we do not want it to fail and guess what it got going fast right right when it right when it starts to go it's very nice when it plays out right after you talk about it it's very very nice because it's it's nothing against what you're thinking the scenarios you were thinking of and all we were saying was if this crosses to the upside you have a 30 minute divergence which suggests that the two hour can confirm to the upside as well and there is a sneaky sneaky tiny divergence on the mac dnr side so if these things get going it means the two hours going to try to go positive could that roll right away and be risky of course it can but as of right now the 30 minute is in a positive trend with no reversal signal all this has to do is go make that new high and the two hour keeps stretching so keep these in mind 279.92 to the upside 273.42 to the downside understanding that if the 30 minute confirms to the upside test the high go make a new one and you have that daily expected boob for tomorrow let's just talk about the daily scale just for a brief moment you don't really have those forms of divergence is not confident in those personally they're not really you know fully there if you kind of pull up this mac d you kind of see it's just violated slightly and then if you pull up the rsi you definitely see that's violated for sure so you don't have daily divergence here suggesting oh it's definitely probable to see this but it is saying hey we can get a reaction that fails but this could also be an attempt where it tries to take back that 296.32 level if you're able to take back that 296 level and then see some kind of you know i would say it carved out higher low for the daily i would really like to see that the market doesn't always do that for you but that would be a very very good thing if instead we see this get a solid move up to these type various towards 85 285 and then that starts to roll we will have to consider uh that this is a bearish role in some fashion and we are going to see more volatility take place so guys the main topic here is hey the bears are in technically they are in some kind of control as of right now but that control can easily be lost by one confirmation one confirmation on each chart would be the two hour chart for the spy with that divergence confirming to the upside then that starts to dwindle the queues the the divergence here on the two hour chart if that confirms to the upside that starts to dwindle and volatility if that confirms to the downside with a lower high well then all of the bearish case here starts to dwindle pretty quickly and i wanted to make you aware of it not saying these things have to play out as of right now the bearish conditions are there for you they can keep squeezing volatility to the upside but as we do have vix up by 14.1 percent in one day that tells us that we have an 85 probability to see what to see an up day in the next two trading sessions and if that update leads to volatility crossing down the queues curling up with that divergence on the two hour and the spy curling up with that divergence on the two hour well then maybe these daily charts are about to curl to the upside and maybe the spy is about to go up to 800 just like we said at the beginning of 2026 just like we're saying now by the end of 2026 i do see this market going to 800 until the market shows me something that proves that completely wrong thank you guys so much for joining me today i really do appreciate it i'm sorry for not being able to have time uh to uh post some stuff over to youtube but i should have my schedule opened up a little bit for the weekend to put some stuff out and i should be more open next week so i appreciate you being subscribed i appreciate you commenting liking doing all that stuff and i just hope to be helpful always thank you guys have a good one peace out