DO WE GET A BOUNCE BEFORE A STOCK MARKET CRASH? SPY QQQ. IWM.

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: As you can see, volatility is still confirmed with the divergences suggesting that a weekly correction is on the horizon or if not here. And we're going to pay attention to failures of these signals. But for now, we need to consider those bigger timeframes a little bit. So we're going to go over those very briefly in case you missed this weekend's update. But welcome, welcome, welcome, and welcome to today's video. Because today we're going to get you those updated daily expected moves. We've got to update them on the charts here. But guys, today is going to be important because we still have an 85% probability called out from volatility that we can see an update tomorrow. What's that going to entail? Well, let's get into the charts and find out. I do believe it is important to go over all of these confirmations. So let's talk about volatility first and talk about the macro side of things. Just for a moment, we're going to try to make this as brief as possible, just getting through a little bit of volatility to start off here. We have the divergence here. Remember that we looked at futures to say we can trust this divergence. And this is a problem because if you look at volatility on the weekly scale, a divergence does say that we have the opportunity to go into a positive trend, which says we can see a curl up from the weekly chart. Now, I am still leaning towards some kind of corrective move that then is able to go down to deeper prices or deeper readings, I guess, for volatility. But I don't know if that's going to happen, so I just know that while this signal is confirmed, it is going to be a little bit risky. So if it's going to be a little bit risky, I want to take that into consideration once again, showing off that daily. If you want this to fail, then you need the daily chart to turn down. So you pretty much need the SPY to squeeze. This is happening while at the same time we notice some flagging once again in a positive trend for the dollar on the daily chart. We already called out multiple times back down here how the dollar was bottoming on the weekly chart, how we were most likely going to go through a period of time where the dollar bottoms and heads in the upward direction while the stock market moves in that direction at the same time. But eventually we will see some sort of flag on the daily or weekly that when that confirms, we can see some major disruption in the market, a.k.a. some type of correction. Why would we be paying attention to a correction? Because IWM had triple divergence and quadruple divergence here on the RSI. Once again, still paying attention if we can fail, but we are at that annual expected move, suggesting that a weekly correction from here would make a lot of sense. The Q's actually said the same thing. We said it here. We said it right here. We said watch out because this is going to be some heavy resistance, and we're very likely to correct on the weekly from this. And we have officially, as of last week, last Thursday, to be exactly first signal confirming last Wednesday, we have confirmed some signals across the board, especially on volatility on Thursday, that suggest a weekly correction is not only possible, but in fact probable with all the information we take in. That brings us over to the SPY that has not gotten to its annual expected move, and I do think that we will get there. I think that if we do get some type of weekly correction by the end of the year, we can be all the way up towards 796.10 or 800 is what I have overall said. For right now, we do see a lower high confirmed right by the center line. This means that this is your opportunity to go negative, saying that a weekly correction is not only possible, but it is now probable until these signals fail. A complete failure of these signals would be the confirmation of the daily chart in the upward direction. So we're going to go over the shorter time frames now and talk about the two-hour chart to see if we have anything shaping up that can suggest that there is a bear trap taking place at this moment, or is volatility going to get it right? Is the dollar going to get it right? Is the SPY with confirmation down on the lower high going to get it right? Are the annual expected moves for the Q's and IWM going to get it right? You notice that when I say it all in a row, there is a lot of reasons to head in the downward direction, but we still always have this nice little guy on our shoulder because we know the market likes to trick and trap us. So even if we are 99% bearish, we always have that 1% guy on our back telling us, hey, just pay attention if you're wrong. So let's get into the shorter time frames and see if this thing can turn back around. So quick, guys, here is the full technical analysis course. This is 80% off down in the description for the summer sale, and a lot of people were asking about it, so I thought we would just show off some of the curriculum here. A lot of the beginning is setting up those charts, getting through the important indicators that we utilize, and then talking about support, resistance, and gaps. We do go into divergences, volatility, a lot of questions with volatility. We do talk about volatility. We even give you a strategy for when volatility is pretty high, and we discuss weekly ranges and how to get them. That's right, we do teach you a method to make your own weekly expected moves. I'm glad that someone in the chat was shouting out that they use this method. It is a very simple method where you don't necessarily need any kind of calculation. So if you want to make your own weekly expected moves, you can get the course down in the description on the full technical analysis course and get a pretty accurate run one, and then in the future we are going to release a video, maybe not in the course specifically, of how to get the exact calculation in a spreadsheet for you. Now, we do go over mental aspects, we go over risk management, but overall, guys, there is just so much to go over, and you see that you can really knock this out rather quickly. This is all information that you will utilize, and it will completely change how you're able to analyze stocks and find opportunities with the market. Who knows, it might even be a turning point where things start to turn around, which is something that gets emailed to me all the time when discussing these courses. So I really do appreciate everyone out there who has benefited from this, and I would love to see if it benefits you as well. So you can check that out with the link in the description. Now, let's get into the shorter timeframes. So let's start off by reading off the daily expected moves of 747. Look at that, 747, pretty much 747.54 today. Tomorrow, we're looking at 747.76 going into Tuesday. So same area there, we do see 736.42 to the downside as well. As of right now, who is in control? We see that the 2-hour chart is curling into negative territory. Remember last time, last time that we were catching this bottom right in here, it was due to the 30-minute divergences. So if we form 30-minute divergences in these type of areas, or even at the weekly expected move, we will look for a bounce. But we will consider what the 2-hour chart looks like. The 2-hour chart at this moment looks like, hey, if we would curl up right now, you still have a shot to test this high, test the weekly expected move, but maybe even go make a new one and see some structure to turn that daily chart back around. So this is really what I'd be paying attention to. I would say, hey, the first signal to pay attention to if the daily chart is going to start to reject, stop saying that we're getting some type of weekly correction, but instead say, hey, we're going to keep going up for the time being. We will need to consider the 2-hour chart. We will need to say, if the 2-hour cross is up right here, I will need to be patient for a moment and make sure that I am seeing a roll and not some kind of new high because that could extend the overall trend. But don't get it twisted right now. You are going negative in negative territory. So we'll look at that 736.42 to the downside. As of right now, we see that we did not get the 85% probability for an update in the market. We are paying attention to any time we see 30-minute divergences. But as of right now, at the end of the day, you were able to confirm to the downside on your MACD, on your RSI, on all of this. Sorry, I was outside doing some yard work and my allergies are getting to me. The 30-minute can turn down. If this confirmation is just going to lead to more selling, then your downside move is what you'd watch for. That means early on tomorrow, this is the highest probable thing as of this moment. So we will consider this when viewing volatility in a moment to see if that looks like it wants to curl to the upside. But as of right now, this seems to be the most probable. If we see a 30-minute that's able to turn to the upside, there is a shot that that's going to be a surprise. So we will consider that as of this moment. But don't get it twisted. We are currently in negative territory for the two-hour. We are currently in negative territory for the 30-minute. So unless this divergence right here is able to confirm and say the two-hour is likely to turn up, if we start off going down, then it is very likely that we will continue to go down into Thursday or Friday of this week. Now we're getting into the queues, starting off on the 30-minute, right? Doing it front to back, front to back to front, you know, kind of just mixing it up a little bit here. We have 705.75 to the upside, 686.37 to the downside. Not testing the direct monthly expected move, but we can see how we need to still watch for those divergences. If the queues are able to come down to that daily expected move, but we see a divergence confirm afterwards, then we will be looking for some kind of two-hour bounce from this level, and we will be looking at that two-hour chart. So paying attention to this area, very critical for tomorrow. We have not seen a confirmation with the MACD, but we have seen it with price. We have seen it with the RSI. So you have two ticks there waiting on the lagging indicator at this moment. If we're able to create divergences or anything like that, yes, it can lead into a two-hour move, but the queues are suggesting that that two-hour move most likely would fail. That's right, just like right over here when we made 30-minute divergence and we bounced, we ended up rolling the two-hour into negative territory after a blip, but that caused this to go all the way down to the monthly expected move, which was shouted out. So as of this moment, if we want to sit in the monthly expected moves for the end of the month, we would be looking for a 30-minute divergence down by that center line. If we do not see a 30-minute shape up, but instead we get a wave of selling to come down to the weekly expected move, we most likely will be looking for a bounce that leads into another move to the downside, if not some kind of double bottom around here for some kind of bigger dead cat, like two-hour bounce at this moment. So we went over the 30-minute look out for divergences is my honest take here, and then look for some kind of counter move off of the weekly or monthly expected move for the queues. That looks highly probable if the two-hour is able to curl up. Even right now, though, like say tomorrow, it still would be, and even the weekly expected move is leaning towards a lower high once again. So when you consider these things, it's very difficult for the bulls to build back. What do the bulls need to do to build back? They need to see a big move. You need to squeeze out of these conditions. We've seen the bulls do it plenty of times in 2026, but that is the hard truth here. You need to set up a reversal signal, see that two-hour curl up, squeeze to the upside to break through any kind of resistance, and I think that resistance level would be about 725.56. So considering that, this is something that I would look at for the queues at this moment. The two-hour chart is in a negative trend. The 30-minute chart is in a negative trend, and I'm not seeing a lot of things out there that suggest we are going to turn around unless some kind of Google earnings or something like that is able to throw a wrench in the market. IWM, very, very important chart to keep an eye on on the two-hour here, 295.33. This one's shifting down. By the way, implied volatility has picked up a little bit. We still have that 85% probability for an up day going into the next trading session. So are we done flagging? Are we going to see a squeeze tomorrow, or are we going to get that wrong? Are we going to see one of those 15% moments? That does happen every once in a while. So we do notice here that we are trying to shape up. We're trying so hard to hold this two-hour, but it looks like we're getting slippery and starting to tip over. So as of right now, bears are in control. As of right now, you're pointing directly to the lower expected move of 289.29. That's going to be very, very important. We don't necessarily see divergence or anything like that, but if this would curl up, we would still treat it like some kind of higher low. Do we see anything here that suggests that IWM is going to turn around on the 30-minute? No, I do not anymore. Throughout the day, maybe in the morning, you heard me talk about maybe something forming down here. But because of the early rejection, because of the kind of failure of this upward move here, you notice that we wiped out any form of divergence. We wiped out any form of divergence here as well. So IWM, just like the Qs, just like the SPY, is leaning towards continuation of selling. But we need to look at volatility and see, with that 85% probability for an update for the SPY, what is volatility shaping up? Here we go. Volatility actually confirming on the 30-minute to the upside. So we're going to talk about a few things here. This does mean that we can go test into this wick or possibly even go make a new high. So we will consider that. I do believe paying attention to divergence right here is probably not the best thing to do because it's pretty far across. So we would be looking for probably two more pushes of volatility if this is going to continue to do what it's doing right now. So as of this moment, the 30-minute is saying tomorrow we are at risk of selling off further and seeing some volatility, and we could extend that into a Thursday or Friday. But the two-hour chart is not necessarily by the center line yet. So if we want to reject right here, right now, keep kind of doing this flagginess down, come down on the two-hour even a little bit further, see that get a little bit closer to the center line, and then curl up into positive territory, you notice here that volatility is in an extremely positive trend. At the beginning of the video, we showed you the weekly chart. Looks like it wants to curl up. Why? Because the daily chart's confirming divergence. Well, if the daily chart's confirming divergence here, and we see a two-hour positive trend, then that's very risky for the market. What do we see here? The two-hour is in a positive trend. So we do notice here that this is going to be a time to really make sure to keep your capital safe, to make sure you are taking risk management into consideration, or be looking at, you know, any kind of downside type of moves for the moment. Until we see something change here, we have to discuss downside. So if you'd like to join us for the live video in the morning, we will be live tomorrow morning right at the open if you are interested right here on YouTube. So we have some bad confirmations. We have the SPY that has confirmed the lower high down on the daily. We have all these things. But even the shorter timeframes are not shaping up anything that suggests, hey, we're going to turn around right here, right now. We always can. We always can see this two-hour turn up. We know how to react if it does. But for now, every single indice is in a negative trend on the two-hour, is in a negative trend on the 30-minute. And it looks like even if we got a two-hour bounce, the Qs and IWM still kind of leaning towards rejection there. So any way we put it here, any way we mock it up, it is looking like the market really still wants to head in the downward direction, and weekly correction is on the table. Thank you guys so much for watching this video. Really do appreciate it. Make sure to join for the live video in the morning. If you have questions about the full technical analysis course, if you have questions about the sale, if you have questions about anything in there or the Patreon down there in the description, just let us know during the live show because I'm sure someone else has that question as well. And I would love to answer your question live. Thank you guys so much and have a great rest of your night. Peace out.