85% PROBABILITY FOR THE NEXT MOVE... SPY QQQ

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: After making not only one divergence, but a triple divergence outside of the monthly expected move, going down to tag that weekly expected move, we noticed some kind of upside move here was coming as the monthly expected move did tell us that we were getting into the low probability area for the short positions to start to work out. But instead, we are highly probable to see a bounce back into that 68% zone that was described to us, but it seems that volatility with the bounce today is doing something yet again, another time this is happening, we have another 85% day, or a couple of sessions coming Friday and Monday. So we really want to consider that with what we're seeing here, as this market attempts to go to the upside, and we see extreme implied volatility going into the next session. A lot of people are going to point to the SpaceX IPO and things like that for it. But 748.46 to the upside for the SPY, we see 727.06. The clear thing here is just this, if the two hour is able to now as it has crossed with those divergences, we're going to point out in a moment, if this two hour is able to cross back to the downside at any point in negative territory, we will be considering a test of the low and going to make a new one. You are in a negative trend for the two hour chart, if you want to go back into a positive trend, then you need to squeeze. So if we're paying attention to any kind of role here, if we start to play with a little bit higher prices, then we can actually start to say we are going for another little run here. And the daily chart may be able to curl up in positive territory. So make sure you are subscribed because we will do a macro video over the weekend that you can we can kind of look at these weekly and daily charts just to go over that one more time. And then usually on Sunday, we do put out the updated weekly expected moves as they worked so well. Now, they are encouraging you right now to subscribe to get these levels every single week as they have hard data behind them. And you tag them about 75% of the time, this is calculated using the options data. So this has hard data behind it. And these are some of the best, if not the best support and resistance that any trader can have. And this will actually elevate your trading. So as we get into those things, make sure you're subscribed also because we have those live videos coming out Monday through Wednesday every single week. Every single Monday through Wednesday throughout the summer, we will be doing live video where you can come and ask questions, whether that's about the course or anything like that. That is up to you. Welcome, welcome, welcome to join us. Okay. So the key thing here is if we are going to keep heading to the upside, then this 30 minute needs to go into a very significant positive trend. And we do have an 85% day. So let's talk about that 85% day real quick. Volatility was able to break down. We had one false last curl up before rejecting to the downside. This is very important because this is stating that a two hour pullback is probable here now with all those potential divergences actually playing out. But remember that the two hour chart, you Patreon members who saw our update video, if you want to join Patreon, that link's down there too. It's only like seven bucks. And I give videos once or twice a week during market hours. And we post some pictures and stuff like that of things going on when I do have time. But the key thing we were talking about here was the fact that you violated on the MACD. So even though you have this RSI divergence, and it does say this can completely break down and we could make a serious bottom here, we got to see how the market proves itself. Because as of right now, volatility with the positioning of the MACD is still leaning towards some kind of higher low for the two hour chart. We need that to be wiped out if you want some kind of significant bottom, meaning you want that daily chart to curl up for the SPY. So that told us that we really, really volatility itself, the dollar being able to bottom a while back. This told us to really watch out for any kind of two hour roll. That two hour roll can take place anywhere up in these areas to kind of get this shape going for the head and shoulders. But we would consider, hey, is this actually negative when it is crossing down? That is what we will be watching over the next few sessions. And volatility is suggesting that that can be the most probable until we see it proven wrong. So the 30 minute chart here, if you're going to see some kind of positive trend, what we would look for with that 85% probability for what? Well, the VIX was down by over 12% today. So since it's down by over 10%, you have an 85% probability to see a down day for the SPY in the next two trading sessions. That would be Friday and Monday. And next week we are going into VIXPiration on Wednesday and OPEX on a Thursday. As Friday, we do not have the regular trading session. So that means that if we want to head to the upside, we need this 30 minute to go. You need this to go. That is a possibility. It always is with these markets. But if you end up making any kind of divergence or you even scale up to these levels and you see some kind of 30 minute divergence that takes place maybe next week, then we really want to watch out for any kind of signal. We're going to utilize those updated weekly expected moves. So make sure you are subscribed. This is the same for the queues, right? The queues are extremely negative on this two hour chart. So you need to go or you are at risk of seeing some kind of roll. And the truth is maybe we even get all the way up here to test those sellers. And if you sell off from there, we need to look at the positioning of this MACD to see if that is still negative. If that is still negative, we will still consider some kind of downturn. If you're able to go positive, though, you bulls out there who think this might be a bottom, if you're able to squeeze high enough to go positive on this MACD, we'll start to pay attention to the other direction. But as we are in a negative trend, we heavily would watch for lower highs to give us that nice left head and right shoulder. We'll be watching that very, very carefully over the next few sessions, which means the 30 minute chart and your daily expected moves. Hey, look at that 733 away to the upside, 718 to the downside, 85% chance for a down day means that we need to pay attention to that, especially because it is directly to the SPY. But that means the Qs can follow it, the 30 minute here is going positive, that is a good sign for the bulls. This suggests that, especially if we're able to push higher, even just slightly higher, a retest of the five day can lead to more upside as of right now, as we go into that positive trend. So rejection here, you would be still close to the center line, that would be the risky thing for tomorrow. As you have major implied volatility, you have a huge implied volatility. If this is able to reject here, we'll look for any kind of sneaky high or low, but I don't think you want to see rejection right now. I think you want to see some upside. So I'm leaning towards Monday being some kind of pullback day for the most part. And then we could run into some volatility after Tuesday as we get into VIXPiration and OpEx. But we'll see how the market proves itself as of right now, you would say if the two hour is crossed up, then we are very likely to go up to the daily expected move or create 30 minute pullbacks that can then get you to that daily expected move, maybe even next week of about 730. So we will watch that level very carefully. For IWM here, we do have the daily expected moves and look at this. You have your daily expected move for tomorrow. I know this is crazy as we are outside of the weekly expected move and this is risky. We are suggesting that if this two hour curls up, it's closer to going positive. It's showing somewhat signs of some divergence there, but I won't mention them because they don't seem significant enough to be mentioned for the two hour chart. But what we would consider at this time is if this is crossed up and it never crosses back down, then we can head up to that daily expected move, which would say that you are probable. It is within the probabilities. It is a 68% zone, so it's 68% included in there is your annual expected move. This is where we saw some major risk for markets last time and we were correct to do that with the queues, right? We went up and tagged that line. So if IWM is able to get there, if we are able to squeeze up to that level and hold price, we would actually look for two more two hour or one more two hour push. As of right now, the 30 minute is well positive. So nothing here states that we are going to plummet to the ground. That's always a possibility. But is it a high probability as of right now extension or some kind of 30 minute pullback leading to more upside, maybe even down to that daily expected move would be the most probable at this point. But this market is teetering in a risky spot here. So just watch out for any kind of tricks and traps out there. But as of right now, I think extension building some kind of two hour trap would be the best thing, even if you want to turn to the downside for a lot of these indices. I thank you guys so much for watching this video. We do have the course sale that is down there. You can get it for about 80% off over the weekend. The weekend's a great time to focus in and try to learn this stuff. We go in depth in explaining these ranges so you have a good understanding of them, right? Why can I trust them? You know, what is the actual inner workings of that that I can trust it? And we also do that with the indicators as well. So we do a lot in that course and it will change your entire outlook on how these markets move over time, especially if you're someone who keeps, you know, right when you buy something, it goes directly the wrong day, wrong way on you. This is something that can really help you out. So look at that course down there in the description. But other than that, guys, I thank you so much for watching and I hope that you guys are having a great day today. I know that I am spending some time with the girls, so I hope that you spend some time with family this weekend and don't dedicate too much of it to learning about stocks with that course. Thank you guys so much. Have a great day. Peace out.