is this the start of a STOCK MARKETCRASH? ... THIS MAY SURPRISE YOU!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: friday we actually saw the markets get an absolute bloodbath in fact if you consider our moves the markets aka traders out there the options market was taken completely off the guard and if you were watching markets then you just saw a sub five percent moment that is now pointing directly to the monthly expected move now we do have some big percentages out there we have some big percentage potential moves coming out for monday and tuesday based on this move using volatility we will talk about that at the beginning of this video so you know what we're talking about but you have a 95 chance to see something in the next two trading sessions so we will be very aware of that because that can help us in making potential decisions or keep us from making some kind of mistake like being collected into some kind of hype of a stock market crash while today we are going to go over the bigger time frames we're going to be talking about the macro signals which can which can really help us then considering an actual stock market crash and when i say crash i mean a big one um do we have those signals we're going to talk about that as of today and for tomorrow though if you would like to subscribe we will give you those updated weekly expected moves you can get the monthly expected moves during this video as we go through the spy the queues we're going to go through iwm and volatility as well but make sure you are subscribed for tomorrow so we can talk about this two-hour chart because we have to consider did we go too deep here or can the two hours still be a trick and trap we will be watching that going into tomorrow's video so we'll be considering that going into tomorrow but for now let's get some macro update going and let's talk about that high percentage 95 probability going into monday and tuesday and we can blatantly see that the spy doesn't necessarily have some good signals here we'll go over those in a moment because first we need to talk about what's going on with volatility now volatility you remember in thursday's video and multiple videos over the last week we have been pointing out that this level of 1504 creating reversal signals by there and curling up the daily chart with a divergence on the macd not on the rsi at the same time does put you at risk of some scary things and we'll continue to talk about those but we pointed out that this was a little bit can not confusing but a little bit wonky here but we cleared that up by just stating hey if the two hour curls up is it riskier than the last time it curled up if the two hour curls up is it closer or further away than the center line it is closer so we knew about risk pretty much right away from the gate right out of the gate on friday and that is very very important because this was able to give you a big daily confirmation now that daily confirmation does have a form of macd divergence so we do have a good probability to turn up weekly charts we will see if this is able to fail we'll monitor it with you all throughout next week and the couple weeks going forward if we continue to sell off but volatility here was up by you can't see it on the right side of your screen but volatility if i hover right here you can see it at the top there volatility was up by 39.7 percent if volatility is up by 10 percent over 10 percent then in the next two trading sessions you usually have an 85 percent probability to see a down or see an update for the spy in the next two trading sessions but considering we were up by 39.7 percent i believe it is above 20 percent you actually have a 90 percent 90 to 95 percent probability to see an update in the next two trading sessions now i say that and a lot of people see a big down day and think you're going to get a massive move to the upside but we will consider that in tomorrow's video right we've talked about these things before that that update does not have to be some kind of massive move in some way so we will talk about that further but for now let's talk about the macro scale a little bit here for vix and get into the nitty-gritty of it what does this signal mean this means you had a divergence here on the macd not on the rsi so it's like hey maybe i don't put a lot of weight behind it but at the same time it's on the macd so i have to consider that it is a risky signal and as you see these things confirm reacting is the best bet right reacting in some way especially if i am caught off guard and this goes against my trade why is it very important well it's very important because a daily divergence likes to turn up weekly charts and look where that weekly chart is sitting it is right by positive territory this means that we are at risk of doing what we talked about last weekend where you could scale all the way up to this trend line towards that 45 i think we said 44 to 40 level and we will consider that in the next few uh weeks or so if we continue to sell off here we'll look for divergences we'll look for lower highs anything like that that suggests that this is a particular trap because as we get back over to the spy on the weekly chart we see here that the weekly chart was able to do what it wasn't able to get to the annual expected move yet let's keep that in the back of our mind let's also talk about price action and say hey did we beat out this high do we have those strong buyers so the most likely thing for price action is to make a higher low but let's really consider our indicators as well maybe we could create the full argument here of is paying attention to a weekly pullback a weekly correction a weekly higher low the best thing for me going forward well the at least on the macro scale well we would have to look at this macd and we see that the macd does have a slightly downward tilt here so if the weekly crosses down you have a slight form of divergence but we do not see that on the rsi at the same time we see a blatant violation which means that a lot of the time we will need to remake that in some fashion so paying attention to something like this looks like to be the most probable thing to watch for that means we would look for some kind of pullback and we do still have a lot of room to that center line you notice we could pull back for five six weeks here and still be able to curl up into positive territory that way we can get to the annual expected move what levels would we really be watching well you'd be kind of looking at those fair value gaps in these areas right here so i think a test of 700 would be pretty much fantastic you'd pretty much be testing into all of the previous highs you'd be testing into those good buyers so we really will be watching that area kind of towards 700 and all the way down towards 683 for the weekly to get some signals here is the weekly likely to cross down that's the next topic we need to go over here the daily chart is very important because you do see a form of rejection divergence on your macd blatantly right there you see the divergence on your rsi at the same time now we see these but the question we have to always ask is if we hang out by the monthly expected move and we're able to curl up into positive territory what does that mean that means that we could still test the high and go make a new one if we want to curl up before we're able to go negative so even if we're able to cut out these levels we would still need to see that lower high to really get that structure to head down because if you're able to curl up into positive territory we can actually show you a moment where this happened where the daily scale here you would say hey yeah if i take out this level that's not a good thing we can start to see structure to break down we could just break down but because we have divergence we have potential for a weekly pullback here but if this curls up at any point i need to be watching because that means we might test this high or go make a new one we actually saw this i'm going to show it on the two hour chart just because i think this is really good for you to see we saw this phenomenon when we did have divergences here we had divergences here on the two hour chart for your macd and rsi we saw a big drop that was able to barely violate this level down here but we curled up into positive tear notice we curled up all the way down by that center line we curled up into positive territory and what happened we not only tested the high we went and made a new one so that's very very important for us to see here because it keeps us honest it keeps us saying if the daily curls up in positive territory then i won't be saying that this market is crashing down at least for the moment i would need to see a lower high rejection or i would need to see us go make a new high and set up another divergence point that's potentially closer to that center line wanted to point all this out for the spy because i do believe it is very important and the cues are very very similar so we see here that the daily divergence is there we see that on your macd and rsi and i actually like the cues divergence more for a few reasons why would i like the cues divergence more if you want to say it in the comments maybe you can say something before i even point it out but one of those reasons is because i actually see the macd curl up here i'm not the biggest fan of rejection divergence so i do look out for divergences on uh that actually curl up and show me that histogram go green for a moment and show that there is weakness in that green i really like that and then i look for that confirmation that confirmation actually took place on friday but make sure to stick around tomorrow make sure you subscribe for tomorrow because we will go into these shorter time frames tomorrow this is where it's important because over the whole summer we will have free live videos we have monday tuesday wednesday every single week all the way to my birthday which is at the end of august so we will be going through this market with you in real time and talking about these things you can come and ask questions because i think this is the best time for us to put out that course sale we haven't done a sale really all of 2026 so i want to put that out for the summer it is the ability to learn about how to utilize these monthly expected moves what they are learn about them individually but also learn some skills on the macd on the rsi on price action we go over a ton of things that can be very very useful for any strategy and then i also give you a strategy for when volatility is above 20 and guess what volatility is above 20 right now so maybe we can utilize that strategy we'll talk about that more during the live show if you want to check out that link down there in the description for the course the sale will be up on there if you want to give it a click we do see that daily divergence but a lot of room to that center line just like the spy now why would i still like this divergence more maybe you already put it in the comments because the queues went directly up to that annual expected move and that's exactly where we started to sell off from so hats off thank you to our annual expected moves we like to see it that's fantastic we have a form of divergence here we know that if the daily curls up in positive territory we still have the potential to see something a little bullish so we will be watching this monthly expected move of 696.59 very very closely considering we have divergence that means you are at risk of seeing the weekly cross down and the spy may have had that divergence but the keys blatantly wipe this out which means you have a lot of room to that center line it means we are very likely to see another weekly move to the upside for this market and when you consider the bullishness in here in here in here you have a lot of room here to catch yourself even if we go all the way by that center line and sell off for like five to six weeks you can still curl up into positive territory and maybe set up an actual reversal signal by the annual expected move something we look for a lot of the time is not just do we tag an expected move but do we actually see reversal signals around it right here you may see a daily reversal but this is a level for all of 2026 so seeing a macro scale weekly divergence up here would be more of the risk of seeing a crash and i wanted to point this out because i know people are going to utilize friday people on youtube they are going to utilize friday sell to say that the market is absolutely going to crash this is where i wanted to take a pause and just say you have not seen a weekly divergence you have not seen a weekly lower high there is no indication that this would be a stock market crash if this would be a stock market crash if the only signal that points to that is volatility in the dollar those two areas they say a stock market crash is coming but a lot of the time the market builds up and builds up and keeps those signals for a long time before we actually see the major crash take place so i wanted to point that out that we are very likely to continue for this as we have not seen that divergence as we have not seen that weekly lower high so i wanted to point that out so very very cool here from the queues to show us all of this because it really clears things up this is just like we talked about with that kind of 30 minute at the beginning of this week hey we can see that little 30 minute move higher before we start to drop a little bit right things like that same thing can be said here the weekly scale is violating divergence on both the macd and rsi at the same time saying that the most probable thing here is if we do get the weekly pullback if that daily doesn't buy us a little bit more time before some kind of weekly pullback but instead that happens right now then that weekly pullback can take you down for a bit of time but it is very likely to carve out a higher low even if you do experience a drop of say 12 to 15 so we will be watching this very carefully and we will have live videos you can join us every single morning right at the open we will be live for two to three hours every single um monday tuesday and wednesday all the way up into the end of august let's go over to iwm for a moment because iwm gave us the best signals here now let's see if iwm says the same right iwm within the range three points away from its annual expected move within the uh means of risk right as you get closer and closer this move you start to think more about how much room you have to the downside for all of 2026 because that's what these levels are this is your 68 percent zone for 2026 and we want to consider the fact that you're at the upward one because of last time it happened last time you tagged to the downside very quickly in 2025 and you went all the way to the upside move by the end of the year so this is a very very important line to have on your charts and i'm glad that if you're new here you found the channel when you did because now you can learn about these things and we're going to put these out on youtube completely for free every single year for the spy for the queues for iwm because this is something that can really really help you with investing as far as finding a point of a buy to the downside but it can also help you in your investing and knowing hey we're already at the annual expected move so risk is more elevated to see a downside move now when we consider what's going on with iwm we have just taken out this high so price action even would say we're going to dip into here or down into here and we're going to carve out a higher low do the indicators agree with that weekly chart here are able to violate on the macd so the macd does agree with that if you curl up even if you get all the way down by this center line towards the end of july if you curl up that would suggest that you can still go make a new high for iwm and we would consider divergences or lower highs up towards these type of areas towards that 295.67 does the rsi agree with all of this you see that we wiped out this point for the rsi so does the rsi agree with this yes the rsi does agree that we can go for another push higher but we will start watching for divergences we will start watching for lower highs at that point the truth be told we could see something crazy from this market and that's why we don't want to fully consider stock market crash before those crash signals are really there so i wanted to clear that up in this video but iwm gave you a clear thing here right a clear thing for this week was iwm on the daily scale how likely are we to curl down on the weekly well now iwm is the biggest signal here because it's very different from the spy in the queues if you notice the spy in the queues have daily divergence but they are kind of up here and they're kind of flat they're not necessarily the most significant they're not given what that means is they're not getting you closer to going into a negative trend where you start to see more and more negative price action right instead we actually see iwm is the one that is more significant here so iwm is saying there is more risk of seeing a weekly pullback a weekly correction if you will uh based on these signals here being significant and based on the fact that sorry about that i actually actually have accidentally put a dot here and it's gonna bug me for the whole video uh but actually the rsi is a big thing here because not only do you have triple divergence but this is an important concept you have triple divergence but notice how it got so much more significant right here so we will consider that for iwm but what is something on the daily chart that we still have to know we still have to know that even if we break this low and we curl up we are still going to be in positive territory so if we curl up into positive territory at any point we still would suggest paying attention to test and high potentially going to make a new one but if we're able to fail and carve out some kind of lower high then you start to see some good structure at this point this is a very important level i'm just going to mark it off actually because this is a very important level uh for iwm if you take out this level you're not only taking out one form of resistance but you're also taking out the fact that we used to support and support twice that means that this level right here of 270 is very very important if you take out that level and then you carve out that right shoulder that could have been or what you would consider is just a lower high then you can continue in that downward direction obviously down in these type of areas we will be watching for any kind of daily divergence at that point because daily divergence would be a nice hint that this market is going to turn back in the upward direction and maybe the weekly pullback is finished so for now this is the best information i think you can pay attention to for the iwm and we will go back over and remind you about volatility volatility is suggesting there is a potential 95 probability on monday and tuesday to see an update for the sby a lot of people think oh because he said update that means we're going to skyrocket to the upside it can happen but we're going to talk about that in tomorrow's video we're going to consider the shorter time frames and see if the market has given us enough hints to say yeah this is a trap or should we actually be worried about something on volatility closing on the daily scale at the high of day while the market closed kind of at the low of day it seems like a risky spot as of right now and maybe that two hour chart dropped a little bit too deep so we will talk about that in tomorrow's update video so i hope you do subscribe and i hope that this information was overall very very helpful to you and i hope that you have a great weekend like i'm glad that you came in i'm glad you got a macro update i hope you come tomorrow and you get those updated weekly moves those daily moves and we see what the signals look like for the week ahead but joining us for tomorrow and things like that the most important thing i think is that you go spend some time with friends and family you treat yourself to a nice meal you show kindness to someone that you maybe normally wouldn't show kindness to regularly i think that's the most important thing for our world right now is that we really put our priorities straight and we make sure that yes we have to work we have to provide for our families but at the same time we have to provide them with love as well so thank you guys so much for watching today and i hope you were able to take something helpful away from this and i look forward to seeing you during our live shows but also in the update video tomorrow thank you guys have a great rest of your day. Peace out.