but is it a STOCK MARKET CRASH? - SPY QQQ

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Over the weekend we were discussing how the macro scale the daily chart is still in positive territory and if we simply look back the times where we do curl up into positive territory we can see that a new high usually does come from that so we want to consider that in the near price action with the daily chart but in order to see if that daily chart is going to be able to curl up we need to look at the shorter ones so today we're going to give you those updated weekly and daily expected moves we're going to talk about what could be probable for these sessions ahead but we're also going to talk about that 85% chance that 85% probability being called out by the VIX that there is some high potential for a down day on Monday we're going to look through the charts and see what seems to be the most probable based on momentum so let's get into it okay today guys we will be putting out patreon members the weekly expected move list a little bit later on today just so you're aware of that we will have live video Monday through Wednesday this week at the open usually that will be about two hours that seems what my wife is very comfortable with it seems that is the best case for us so let's talk about some stuff here and then we can watch it together you know tomorrow and Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday right as we get into VIXpiration that's right this week we have VIXpiration and OPEX so let's get you those weekly expected moves we see weekly expected move here in purple always going to be in purple just like the monthly is in yellow the weekly will always be in purple here at 756 14 to the upside 727 36 to the downside we very simply see here that if the daily would cross up oh we'd probably be going outside of that that range so unless we get a surprise that seems a little bit less likely but as we look at the two-hour chart we can obviously point point out some things here we can obviously point out that we are in negative territory so if we're able to curl to the downside maybe we do want to watch for that 733 79 daily expected move on Monday maybe we want to watch upside because right now it's not curled down so 749 71 to the upside but we just want to acknowledge here that if this were to cross then I shouldn't be placing big money all the way up here right that doesn't make any sense if this is crossing down and this is a potential roll over here that can be a big oopsie going into the end of the month and I don't really want to be a part of that oopsie so I have a simple rule of if the two-hour chart crosses down I have nothing bullish to really be targeting if it curls to the downside and some kind of maybe I'm like hey this is the two-hour roll I want to see it make a new low I'm going to take this play down just be aware that you could be taking a trade that's going outside of the monthly it can happen I'm not saying that by any means this is actually the setup for it to potentially happen like when you most of the time do see it you'll get some kind of bounce from it and fail it but I just say you know make sure we're taking profit and things like that right that's overall what I think about in these times but are we talking about that two-hour roll just a little bit early because this is pretty positive here that's a pretty good positive move you see how you could pull back for like half a day so as if we go through a pullback on Monday considering that 85% probability from volatility to get a down day for the SPY on Monday if we curl down this 30-minute chart I really wouldn't expect something like this to happen without some kind of surprise there's got to be some kind of big surprise there to send you to a second standard deviation for the day because the very much so more probable thing here is you just curl down to that daily expected move and then you just turn right back up and you head to the upside that seems to be the most probable thing here we'll see if that ends up taking place because this is a risky spot for that two-hour chart because all that has to happen here is you break through that daily you can bounce at any point at that time as if this starts to go negative then we start to lean in the negative direction that's pretty much how it goes but it seems more probable to just do some kind of 30-minute pullback or not pull back at all if this is just going to see some upward price action then we would look for that's 749.71 so it seems that a 30-minute pullback would make sense here does it seem absolutely necessary no uh so we'll see if we're able to get that down day maybe we'll go look at volatility in a moment we see here the daily expectedness we'll do those first for the queues we have 734 to the upside 70868 to the downside we once again see that 30-minute MACD and we see it and we're like hmm that's that's that's pretty up there you notice when we get up there what do we normally have to make in order to reverse back down well these are divergences right and so if this is the first point then it's very likely that we at least see this into this and then we'll see if something bad happens over here but if we're able to build all the way up to these levels we might be crossing up daily charts so we'll see what happens with that but once again the queues a lot of room to that downside so if we get that down day on monday it seems the most probable thing would be some kind of 30-minute pullback if the two hour though is able to cross if that ends up being more than a pullback maybe we get a little bit of a surprise because we have such good structure here we also talked about the fact that head and shoulders a lot of the time because everyone can see it it's a very simple pattern to see because that happens it is violated a lot of the times we saw a violation over here that's why we're always ready to react if this turns around so if the two hour chart is able to go extremely positive right if we're able to go like this this week we go up and this goes positive then we should start looking for pullbacks to keep going up as of right now though if we're able to set up a reversal signal anywhere at these lower levels that would be a problem for the queues on the two hour chart so your weekly expected moves here 746 79 to the upside 695 89 to the downside you are stuck in kind of a box if you see this you're stuck in a box between what well we came up and tagged the annual expected move we dropped down to a monthly expected move and now you are in this box right here you're in this kind of area between a monthly expected move and an annual expected move and we're probably could even just see some bouncing around for a bit between these levels so this could this market could get really interesting and we'll see what takes place let's go over iwm because iwm is super interesting here um iwm making a move to the annual expected move making a new high fantastic stuff um but this is something that's a little bit risky when you consider where the daily is at because what you would need to see here from iwm for this not to just be a trap in the making what you would need to see here is a big squeeze i believe you would need to see more than this you need to see like something like down in here happen to really get rid of this so the high likelihood is you know if we end up popping off then we would be able to continue and i'm not taking that off the table anything's possible here but uh the more likely thing is you go up you make some kind of reversal signal right here right now like a two-hour divergence or something and then the daily just does this little cross up and drop and you just hold every divergence point if you're able to do that that would really say like hey here comes the weekly pullback so we have to consider the two-hour chart though and we have to consider our daily expected moves the two-hour chart was able to go positive right now it's not crazy positive or anything like that right if this just crossed down hey it would take like a couple hours four hours maybe to go negative 296.78 to the upside 289.12 to the downside if this is able to curl down you weirdly enough it is one of those ones that's like it's a risky curl down so i don't want to mess around with it and have money risk but it doesn't necessarily say like this is a very obvious thing because this is actually an opportunity here so if the two-hour is able to curl down we would still consider pullback first i don't think that this would be the two-hour role that we were looking for in the shape for iwm but i would consider like that if this really wants to turn down with this type of look right now and we actually don't get a little bit of a squeeze higher with like just a pullback uh that would that would probably be because of something a lot of people didn't see coming aka maybe even a black swan at that point we'll say gray swan it wouldn't have to be like horrible horrible but it would have to be a little bit bad it would have to be pretty bad to you know be able to have this amount of implied volatility this amount of space to the center line for the 30 minute chart above the five day moving average and we go like this on monday with that high percentage down day and then by the end of the day you're just scooping up and turning to the upside and heading to a weekly expected move that you can get over on patreon uh so i think that the very likely thing here is paying attention to 30 minute charts early on um throughout the week and seeing if monday we just get a simple 30 minute pullback there could be a little opportunity in there to target the weekly expected move it should be pretty interesting um let's go over to volatility and wrap this up we see volatility here now this is interesting because it's in no way confirmed it's closing at the low of the day you do have form things like divergence that could form you have to say the phrasing of like could form because this is dropping off pretty significantly pretty fast so if this is dropping off significantly fast and i see divergences like this but the macd is turned straight down that rsi was kind of pointed straight down uh it's more just like hey a divergence can be created here but i'm not like sitting there going home waiting for a trade for this i'm just going if it does i can react uh very very simply i don't want to be baited into thinking like oh there's a massive move from volatility comes until i see this two-hour chart curl up in the near price action we talked about this type of thing happening but we're starting to play with levels where that would be too deep right if we go too deep here then it's very likely to get a two-hour reaction probably around that expiration then we actually roll deeper and then we could see some kind of divergence by 1504 if that's the case if we even want to see more volatility that would be potential for the next trap the other thing that if we see big volatility enter in right away then this two-hour chart curls to the upside so you immediately know early on in the week if volatility holds here and curls to the upside i'm cautious for a bit of time i'm doing my analysis seeing if the two hours are rolling and things like that so that's what it seems like to me uh we do have the two hour here that could create some interesting things so we'll really be watching this carefully let's look at that 30 minute one more time yeah yeah i would just keep an eye on this very early on in the week but we'll talk about it monday morning during the live show so guys it looks like from our analysis today piling it all up with that 85 probability day with how volatility is looking coming down looking like it needs some kind of relief bounce we would say that we agree with volatility going into tomorrow that this can be a down day for the market but a lot of people think with this volatility right now that that down day has to be something absolutely terrible the truth is it can be but the more probable thing here is to just come down to your daily expected move on the 30 minute chart and curl to the upside get to that center line and then curl back to the upside that would be the most probable thing going into the next session so we will consider that during our live show thank you guys so much for watching today i really do appreciate it thank you guys for liking subscribing um the course is down there in the description for the 80 off summer sale if you'd like to grab it but other than that guys you know you can come to the live show ask questions about the course ask questions about you know these ranges ask questions about divergence you can do all that by coming to the live show monday through wednesday and i'd love to see you there all right guys have a great day hang out with family treat yourself a little bit today and peace out