95% Probability we bounce. STOCK MARKET LIVE!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: welcome welcome and we are going to get started in a moment but uh for today i just wanted to announce early on if you're not watching this live we are live at the open every monday tuesday and wednesday we're going to do that all summer long completely for free here on youtube we would love for you to subscribe we would love for you to join the channel and join the live stream to ask questions and talk about some potential stock market moves i'd love to have you here for it thank you so much for watching the live video and we'll get started in just a moment and i see we've already gotten a few likes on the stream guys thank you guys for liking the video so more people can see these especially people who have a hard time or struggle understanding how markets like to move over time and want to utilize weekly and monthly expected moves and some indicators down there so thank you guys so much for hitting that like button appreciate you guys we'll get started here shortly I love you too, Eden. I hope Eden's how you say it, but Jonna's here this morning. Good morning, Jonna. Look at your little crown you got there. You guys got crowns in there because you're first and second or what? That's pretty cool. I just want to say good morning to you guys while I sit on some Gatorade this morning. I feel dehydrated. I feel pretty dehydrated, so I'm taking in some Gatorade, getting it going. We bought some coffee we don't normally buy, and I am not a fan, so I'm drinking a Gatorade this one. Eden, what you got? You got it. All right. Okay, so for today, as we get started here, just briefly wanted to go over some important things we were talking about the last live stream, right? I still think paying attention to some data coming out, I believe it is going to be on this Wednesday. So next Wednesday, not this Wednesday, sorry. Next Wednesday, June 17th, really watching how the market looks around the FOMC, around the Fed press conference. You guys know that's not only because we have those things coming out, but also because that date happens to line up with some important things as far as the option market goes. As far as the options market goes, you do have this kind of day off here, so you do have OPEX on the 18th, but we do have that dreaded VIXPiration, so important to look how volatility kind of ends this week. I think looking how volatility ends this week will be important because that's when we could be at risk of a bigger bounce, right? If volatility is still at elevated levels, we have to consider if it would recover, but if volatility is still at elevated levels, we would consider VIXPiration a time where we reprice those options, okay? So I just wanted to keep that on our radar. We'll close that out and bring this back over because for today, we actually will get existing homes, or I'm sorry, that's tomorrow. Tomorrow we will get existing home sales, but the important thing here I think also is going to be the core inflation, right? The CPI day is going to be pretty important, so we will be watching Wednesday very carefully. Coming into this session over the weekend, we were discussing a lot about the macro side, how this could be a moment, how the weekly expected moves didn't necessarily say, hey, if this two-hour curls up, yeah, you're a straight shot, right? You're high probability to go make that new high. Notice we have to talk differently about it because we were able to go too deep. When you do go too deep in here, now when you do curl up, you can see that your weekly expected move can act like a form of resistance, so that's something we have to consider, but the other thing we were talking about over the weekend was the 95% probability going into Monday and Tuesday. That's right. Remember, we stated you saw a 1% day in the market. You saw one of the most unique days. Probably you're going to see all year long. I'm sure you'll get a couple more because there's over 300 days, and if the percentage is 1% or 2% from this move, then you're likely to see a few more of these throughout the year, just so you're aware of those percentages, but the 95% probability, we are getting a bounce as of right now, and if you go look at volatility, that is currently down by 10%, so if it's down by more than 10%, those probabilities will flip, so we'll see if that takes place, but we are seeing some interesting things when you pay attention to the 30-minute here. The most likely thing for the 30-minute is to continue this move. We discussed that over the weekend for volatility, so if that means this is likely to continue, we don't see a lower high or anything like that just yet, it would mean that this is a risky, risky thing this morning. This morning, we could be at risk of testing into some good sellers where we do reject from. We'll see if we can hang out here for a little bit today. That would be very, very nice, and maybe start to come down so that this gets up by the center line, but remember, continuation is the most probable for the 30-minute chart, and the two-hour curling up, we have not seen any signals that suggest that that's going to happen right now, and you're just going to full recover. If we start to see 30-minute higher lows, there is a chance that this is going to try to recover, so we'll see if that takes place, but for now, we need to see if we're still going to continue to the downside because that seems more probable. Now, there's another thing that I want to point to, right? The monthly expected moves are now within your weekly expected moves. Remember, this acts like a magnet, so do these levels. All of the levels that you see marked on the charts have options data calculation behind them, so they can all act like magnets, so we'll really be watching that because 75% of the time, you will tag one of these sides, and that kind of stays true for the SPY on the monthly expected moves. So if 75% of the time we tag this yellow line, and we just saw a move that got us to here, and all we need to see to get there is kind of something like this, that's really what I want to watch for first. I will watch for the lower percentage thing, but as of right now, I think the best thing to do, or the best thing always to do, is pay attention to the most probable thing first. Something interesting about this is these levels really act like magnets if they are stacked on top of each other. That's where I wanted to show you guys IWMs, monthly and weekly expected move, here on YouTube. This is information that we put out over on Patreon, the weekly expected moves, the monthly expected moves for all the stocks on the right side of your screen over here, but we do notice that 274 is starting to become very, very important for your weekly and monthly expected move. So if the 2R is able to curl up here for IWM, it's close to the centerline, yeah, we can violate these levels and come back, set up kind of a reversal signal of some sort, but for now, we would suggest the 30 minute is pretty darn deep here, very deep in fact, and therefore, any kind of move to the upside, you have to be a little bit hesitant to think that this is just going to be a full recovery. We'll see if those signals shape up, or right now, you can see how if we just tagged up into here, we hang out here for a bit of time, and then we grab that liquidity, we can start the next move down as this starts to get towards that centerline. If we're able to crash below that centerline again, crack below it, cross down on that MACD, then we will start to say what, test the low, go make a new one. We have not seen that confirmation yet. So maybe we're a little ahead of ourselves with talking about it. But I wanted to really show how the monthly and the weekly are so close to each other that that can be a serious magnet. And if that serious magnets there, and I get some kind of confirmation to the downside, that might be exactly where IWM is heading. When I look at the core inflation rate year over year, we do see a slight increase there. The core inflation rate month over month, we actually see a slight decrease. These are all the forecasts for it. Inflation rate, you know, just month over month, looks like that is also trying to come down. And then we have the inflation rate year over year is still on that uptick according to the forecast. So we will be watching that very carefully. But I wanted to point out a critical level that I will be watching. And there are some individual stocks as well, I believe like AMD, really, really close to that centerline, you see how even if AMD went all the way up to these areas, you just be tapping into those strong sellers, even if you get a full two hour move to go test them, the more likely thing here is rejection by the centerline is a continuation move, you can kind of see the structure that potentially is going to build here, if we do get some kind of two hour move, and that is this line in the sand right here. And you notice we were able to break that line in the sand. So where's the right shoulder that could have been well, the right shoulder that could have been could be right up in these areas. So these are all things that I want to consider. This is just one stock, I would look through a bunch of them, but pretty much many, if not most, if not all, I think JP Morgan gold, like a few others, maybe, but most of these like over like 90% of them, I would say with confidence, because I just put up these levels, like 90% of them, they include the monthly lower expected move, which means lower expected move for the monthly chart is or for the monthly, monthly moves is within the 68% zone for this week. So it is highly probable to see a lot of stocks out there this week tag their monthly expected move, but we have to see how the market proves itself. So we will go back over to the SPY, look at the two hour chart, lower high is on the lower high is on the table because you are pretty decently negative here. But if you're able to curl up, we will watch for higher lows. More so we would need to break through and see something unexpected, maybe use this as support to head higher and really say this market's coming back. Instead, we really have to watch the 30 minute first, see if we get a higher low, see if you get some kind of divergence down at these levels. Whereas I think continuation is the main thing to pay attention to this morning. All right, let me get to the chat guys. Any of you on gold, gold, as of right now, I wanted to take a look actually, because I think we saw a breakdown. Yeah, so we saw a breakdown. So what I originally thought from gold was we were going to see a sell off and gold was going to see an uptick. That's kind of what I was thinking, just because of a few factors here, we see that we created divergences on the two hour chart, we see that we were able to figure it out over here, maybe for a higher low, we even confirm that kind of weak confirmations, by the way, just so you're aware. But that is something that could confirm a lot of things going on. But as this starts to fail, you start to say, Oh, is this really going to break down over time? So it looks like gold wants to break down further. Most likely, you want to look at this from the macro scale at this point and just say, okay, the weekly is really curled down here. If that's ever able to figure it stuff out, then we would suggest looking for that to test in these highs, maybe even go make a new one. But as we are failing in the current price act, we kind of failed all the daily reversal signals in here. We will start to look if this starts to collapse, and then starts to come back and then create some kind of lower high, I think that would be the best thing for gold as of right now. Because actually, we can show it to you. Let's just show it off. This is the best part about these videos, because you know, we're going to do it all summer long for free, we're going to see how people like it. And we might keep it on there, but close it down for a membership for some members and then do a free live show every week as well. So there still will be some free live video. But at the same time, gold here, I wanted to show you this from this perspective, because this is pretty much what you would get as a member. No, I don't really utilize like, if you go to the spy or something like that, I don't necessarily like the daily expected moves on these, it kind of makes me think about taking day trades or something. And that's just not what I'm very, very good at. And I can admit that to myself. And that's perfectly fine. It's how I like to do it. For this, though, you really notice that a reaction up to that weekly move just brings you right back into the sellers, you don't have reversal signals anymore, you wiped them out on the RSI, which usually means, hey, we're going to have to go recreate those. So we'll see if gold is able to make a two hour divergence down here by the monthly expected move. But a two hour bounce, or even right now, you would just say some kind of 30 minute bounce that fails seems to be the most probable. So is it going to be a 30 minute bounce that fails? Or is it going to be a two hour and a 30 minute bounce that's able to fail because you have a long way to the center line here, you could go up all day for gold here and still end up failing this move. So continuation looks the most probable for gold as well. You can see here by showing off the spy, I don't have daily moves on there. That's just how I like to clear it up for myself. But I do look at the daily expected moves over here on the SPY. And you see that weekly scale. Remember, even if we go through something awful, all we need to do is do that. And we're right back to the races. And we're pointing directly to almost 800. So, you know, not getting too bearish before the market kind of proves that it's going bearish is probably a good idea with this environment. Volatility now down by four almost 14%. We'll see if that's able to hold. Let's get you guys the second standard deviation really quickly. The second standard deviation for our daily expected move. This is the 95% line. [00:14:10] Speaker 2: some 4631. [00:14:19] Speaker 1: And you're already almost there. This would mean that if you see a back to back 1% move, that would be crazy. It is the opportunity to see it, right? We see those big drops that get a big reaction that then fail. But for now, this hasn't curled up, we would kind of like to kind of spend some time up here, and then start to come to the downside. That's how that's how I see it as of right now. If you just sell off from right here, right, let's just say you end the day at the daily expected move, like let's just say we end the day over here, then you wouldn't technically have your 95% probability for an update yet. And Tuesday, you would be at risk of seeing some kind of 30 minute bounce that actually ends up failing. So we'll see if that's going to take place. And we'll analyze that further in tonight's YouTube update. So hopefully you're subscribed, hopefully you're enjoying some of those videos, just really trying to be 100% honest with how I see markets not try to let any bias or anything like that come in, but show that being adaptable, you know, when the two hour swing here didn't work out, right, it doesn't hurt us, because we're not swinging, we're not swinging, we're not swinging, we're not curled up, we're not higher low in or anything like that on the 30 minute, no reason to take it as of right now. But as that starts to change, we have to start to change notice originally, we're going to come down into this area, if we can figure it out in that area, we can curl up, that would be a good thing you test that I go make a new one, you break through that area, we have to start to say, yeah, this is still kind of on the table because you're within range. But it starts to more so lean towards or open the door to that monthly expected move. Yeah, the course, it's really just a few hours, I think we have that sale going right now, I'm going to do the sale for the whole summer, I just don't want to talk about it too much, because I think the live video, if you have questions about it, ask questions, but also, you can learn a lot from these first, I really like people to come in, ask questions about it first before purchasing anything, you should do that. The other part is you can learn a lot just from the YouTube. So I think that you can learn a ton. I think there was a person who said they watched about 100 videos, it took them about 100 videos to really get an understanding of what we're talking about here, whereas the course will just cut and dry be like, this is why I think of the MACD like this, this is why I think of the RSI like this, this is how to spot and how to see divergence, what's a confirmation, we talk about ranges, all kinds of stuff can be learned in there. Man, that's what's up, Iden, I appreciate you, man. Thank you for shouting it out. Yeah, I appreciate it. If it keeps growing, and we keep being helpful, that's the whole goal. If ever we stop being helpful, if ever we start to be one of those guys that lets complete bias leak into that kind of thing. I really don't want to be that type of channel, to be totally honest with you. I would probably shut it all down. So that's up to you guys to call me out. If you guys see me on a day being biased or anything like that, you think I have any kind of bias, you know, let me know. I would love for that, because I want to do what this channel is meant to do and be as helpful as possible. I did see that Jonna wants to see and we got to check it for Jonna. And I do like looking at Intel. I don't mind it. This is extended across. Is this two hour divergence here? Jonna's pretty good at spotting. Nope. Nope. So yeah, you still have too much room to that center line for me to consider this turning around just yet. A very good one to keep your eye on though. A very good one to keep your eye on. Why? Actually, let's ask the chat. Shut it down. Oh, that's true laws. That's true. I ain't looking at those five minute charts. Every once in a while, we'll pull up five minute charts. We'll have fun with it, you know, especially during like a Fed day or something like that. That'd be fun. This is, why is this really good? I'm going to, I'm going to put a little box around it. Why do I think that this could be a good opportunity, at least better opportunity than making a decision here or even here with the lower high. I understand maybe a little swing right here if you made a weekly expected move or something like that for a target. Two hour, it did go negative, but it's kind of in that weird spot that kind of a spy did where it's like, can it, can it make that move all the way up? But once you see the second rejection, you notice as you're negative, you're going to go up negative here. Yeah. As you rotate down, you fail higher lows and things like that. You start to head to the downside. Well, we're going to have to potentially remake those signals. So you would like, I think you would like to see further than you would like to see a two hour reaction that gives you that higher low or a two hour reaction over here that kind of gives you that divergence. I do not have a monthly expected move for Intel, but I do like that it's by the centerline on the daily. I like that it's by the centerline on the daily. So if I just, if I just kind of look at this from the daily perspective, and I have like a monthly move, let's say, where'd the month begin? Just want to make sure. Okay, big drop. So let's say I have monthly moves. We'll say like this, right? And this is coming down like this. Well, look, look, if I set this type of thing up, right on the two hour chart, we can start to point that upward direction, maybe towards the end of the month. And then next month, I'll have that updated monthly expected move. And that would be just a great little target. Then you would just say, okay, I'm out. So you can just look at daily confirmation as well and utilize the monthly expected moves. Very, very nice. Do I think we get to 750 today? Well, the way that I put it here is, do we get to 750 today? And did I put the... What did I just do? Where's my second standard? Did I delete it? I'm sorry, guys. Did I delete the second standard deviation? My bad. Let's see if that's even on the table. If it's on the table for the 95% zone, you have an argument. If it's not, then it becomes very low probability. Yeah, if that bull flag can hold up a little, sometimes you'll see a little break of the bull flag get you faked out. But I think looking at that two hour chart and seeing waiting, at least for me personally, I like to wait for the higher low, just because you're so negative on that MACD. Wait for the higher low, wait for divergence. If you get divergence, you say thank you for my patience, because usually divergences can be a solid, solid gain, if you can monitor it correctly. The second standard deviation, real quick, let me let me do that again, because I think I totally... 746.31. So once this says 746.31, what does that mean? This is actually great, because it's how you can understand ranges and how to treat them is a very good example of that is the 95% zone. Okay, so if I'm saying 95% probability to land in here, all right, that means that in order for us to get to say 750, considering it's pretty far outside of even the second standard deviation, that would be like a 1% move. It can happen. But it is a 1% move. And when you are in a negative trend on the 30 minute, it's kind of a risky one to be like, yeah, we're just randomly going to on this 30 minute during a sell off, I'm going to call out the exact time that we're going to bounce and hit a 1% move. Right? It's just a little bit like when you think of it that way. That's why I like these expected moves, because they give you kind of hard percentages. When you think about them critically, right? This is why I suggest, you know, turn off the AI and think for yourself, right? You got to learn to think. You can just simply go, hey, is 750 a good call for me to take right now for today? It may be based on certain information I'm seeing. But I can't I don't. I've never gone into a trade expecting or wanting a 1% move to happen. Right? Normally, what I'm trying to do is stick to that over 60% type of play. So when I have divergence down by a monthly expected move on, say, the 30 minute chart, say we do something like this. And I see that bounce. I go, okay, here's going to be our first big two hour move. Our two hour move can take us all the way up to that 750 and end up failing. And then we reset it. And then we'd see more of a reversal signal like this later on bigger timeframes. So I would rather target 750 after I see 30 minute divergence in this vicinity. And even there, I might be reaching up a little bit too high at that point. But for today, since I'm guessing you're asking about today, 750 today is 1%. To even tag it, I believe is like 1%. It's kind of like saying, hey, I'm going to see this again, I'm going to see another one of these back to back, and I'm going to call out the exact time it's going to happen. The information you have here from the options data calculation is overall suggesting that 750 is low probability, while volatility is suggesting a fade today. And then we maybe even see a bounce on Tuesday would be more probable. We'll see. Because volatility on the 30 minute here, you can see is really close to what really close to the center line. All you have to see here is the 30 minute curl up. And guess what, you can test these levels up in here, and you can break through them and potentially go make a new high. So a lot of the things going on right now, a lot of what's shaping up even in the futures for volatility, at that five day, I believe, yep, 30 minute curls up, even if this is going negative and starts to go, hey, we could make a lower high, right, we could come up into here and end up failing. It still would take you up most of the day for volatility, meaning you're still likely to see some kind of fade. Now we'll see if we fade, I just want to see that update. I just want to see this, right? I don't care if it happens today. I don't care if it happens tomorrow. But I want to see a test of this five day, I want us to linger, linger, linger, linger up to that middle, and then cross down, linger, linger, linger, linger, linger, cross down, that would be best case, because that then gives you a lot of room to say like, yeah, test the low, go make a new one, what's a simple target for the 30 minutes to get to the monthly expected move tomorrow. So or that would be like, hey, if we extend this out, right, so the other scenario here for some kind of bounce would be we fade this move, right, and then we bounce, and then we come down to the monthly expected move by late Tuesday, or you would say, or I'm sorry, not by late Tuesday, probably by like Wednesday morning. So this means you actually come down, down, down, end, end of day, then you start to bounce, and then you start to kind of fail that move, come into there by like Wednesday. So that's how that's how you would kind of look into the 95% probability for a bounce. But man, the volatility of volatility is scaling up. We'll have to see. I don't think it's open right now. We'll see. We do get housing data [00:26:12] Speaker 2: tomorrow. Let's look at housing. Let's look at HDX. And then I'll get back to the chat. If I can read right now. Daily. Oof. Yeah, that's 666. Still a heavy level. Yeah, you fail here. [00:26:41] Speaker 1: Yeah, you fail here. I don't even know if I like divergence here, because you don't have a lot of time in this bounce. You don't have a lot of room. This would have to be a quick move for a diversion. So it has to be like, boop, boop. Yeah, I don't know how you'd really read into that very, very well. I think the two-hour chart is more your friend, right? Are we going to break above 666? Well, just before you get to 666, or when you tag it, you see that resistance come in, you do what? You get tight, right? We're getting tight again. Not likely a big move is coming for HDX. Hey, look at this. The indicators know that a big move is coming. Or I'm sorry, the price action here getting tight is kind of suggesting, hey, a big move is going to come soon for the housing market. Okay, cool. What do we have tomorrow? Well, 30 minutes after the open, we're going to get existing home sales. We will get a piece of housing data. So this is you kind of seeing before a piece of data happens, that HDX, the housing sector here, is preparing kind of for that move by getting tight. So what do we want to see here for bullishness? Well, you want to see a good piece of data that gives you a solid confirmation, a very solid confirmation where your MACD is curling up, your RSI is curling up, everything's happening, hopefully at the same time. But the MACD curling up will be the lingering, the lagging one. So if the MACD then can curl up down here, what do we think is happening? Well, we're in positive territory. We just consolidated with a two-hour pullback in the form of consolidation. A pullback with time is what we've overall called it. And price action is tight going into data. So if you get a confirmation to the upside, test the high, go make a new one is on the table, meaning you can break above 666.31. One, we'll watch out for little traps like a divergence play up in here if we get some kind of trap or something like that. But you would like to see a nice little extension there. I'm going to put you guys on the spy. Looks like I forgot to charge my mouse. I'm going to put you guys on the spy and I'll read chat. Just my hand movements might be a little wonky for a bit as I plug this in. Okay, let's get it plugged in. I just need probably like five to ten minutes of this plugged in and we'll be good for the entire stream. It's a great mouse. [00:29:00] Speaker 2: All right, let's get back to the chat, guys. Now he's biased against the second standard deviation. [00:29:10] Speaker 1: Our house is too expensive? Yes. It'll be good. You guys want to go do this kind of with the queues? The queues are in the same boat. So all you have to do is you kind of look at every time frame, right? You can say, oh, we went over the weekly this weekend. That's suggesting a weekly correction, a weekly pullback daily. This is kind of suggesting here from these charts. We have divergence, so we can see a weekly downtrend or a daily downtrend. That means we can get a weekly retracement, weekly pullback from this. But analyzing this, we would go, okay, there's a lot of room to the center line. So two things are open for the queues, for the spy, for IWF. Two things are going to be open, especially for the queues, though. And that is, is this just a daily pullback that then curls up? Because if this curls up, even if we take out this low, we explain that over the weekend. Even if we take out this low and we curl up into positive territory, it still would suggest testing the high, going to make a new one. If you start to see lower highs and things like that, right, we fail the move, you come down too deep, like down directly to the center, you fail that move at some point, you're going to be closer to the center line. It'll be a better hint that the weekly pullback's coming. But for now, two doors are open. Those doors would be, queues are saying, we can get a weekly pullback, some kind of correction. That's a weekly pullback. But the queues are also saying, we're very far away from that center line. So if we curl up before we go negative, then watch out because we can actually see another squeeze. That's how you would look at this. And now you know the state of the market a little bit, right? You kind of go, okay, I know the macro side, I know we're vulnerable for a weekly pullback soon. But the daily can extend this if it wants to, because it has a lot of room to the center line, but it does have that reversal signal. So if we go negative, then I can start to pay attention to negative trades. If I like two hour trades, then if we go negative, I can start to pay attention to negative two hour trades, right? So if we look at this two hour, we look at that MACD, we see it's starting. It's kind of in that middle ground still, where if you got a big reaction to the upside, you could recover, right? You technically could recover from that. But considering we have not seen anything from our hints on the 30 minute chart to suggest that we're recovering, then that would be a little too soon. If I wanted to see the market completely recover, say we're going to close outside of the weekly expected move, then I would like to see that weekly move tagged. I would like to see still resistance from it. I would like to pile up with a 30 minute higher low and get that nice Harry Potter. That is how we could extend to go fill a gap. That's how we could test the high, right? Because the two hour technically hasn't fully taken that off the table, right? If we turn around right now and the two hour curls up, you're four hours away from going positive. So the best thing here, though, is to watch the 30 minute early on and just say we're in a downtrend. So downward moves. We're below the five day now. So unless we're taking that back pretty definitively, some kind of lightning bolt to the upside to take this back, then it's going to be difficult for this market to head in the upper direction while it's negative. While it's negative, you look for those negative trends. While it's positive, you kind of look for those positive trends. The dead cat bounce. So a dead cat bounce can be kind of like bottom fissures. Are you trying to say, do you not understand? Alan, is it just the term dead cat bounce? Dude, Chris, I remember you, bro. That's what's up. Hey, thank you. Thank you, Hulk smash. I appreciate it. Do we call you Hulk smash or call you dude? Yeah, it's that dude. I used to be like that dudes here. Yeah, Alan, let me know, brother. I want to answer your question. How old am I? Grandpa, I am. I know I have to think about it because I'm one of those dudes that's like, I don't celebrate my birthday. I'm turning 34 this year. But first, you're going to need a cat in a bag. Oh, Laz is feeling silly today, dude. Please explain what a dead cat bounce is. So a dead cat bounce is kind of like, I would describe it like this. A dead cat bounce is where you see a reaction to the downside. You get some bottom fissures. But at the same time, most likely the options market or the market makers, more so you would say, are running out of liquidity. And so what I think dead cat bounces are, one, I think they're traps to get you to believe a bottom's in. Two, I think that trap takes place because of potential liquidity issues during each and every day, each and every week. So it could be potential, you know, grabbing of liquidity from certain areas. But the main reason I think it happens is because of bottom fissures. They utilize people getting those options. So if too many people are right about a move, right, or think they're right, right, if too many people go short and it's kind of off balance, they'll kind of rebalance that. They overall, they would say, and I think that's why you have the 95% reason for a bounce. So I guess for me, how I look at dead cat bounces is just, hey, when can someone get really bearish and the market maker can take them off guard by going and grabbing more liquidity to head lower later? I believe that the reason that we do see those bounces is because we have a lot of bottom fissures. The market most of the time goes up. So when people see a big reaction to the downside, they can make big decisions for the opposite move. But mostly I see it as a liquidity grab. Wifey's doing good, Sebastian. Thanks for coming back, brother. I appreciate you. We're going to bring this back for the summer. Wifey's doing good. Abuela, she said that because of my live show to do you guys the justice of keeping my full attention here. Abuela actually had them over this morning so that I could do my live show with no anxiety. Sometimes when I hear the girls scream in the background, my immediate reaction is go help. So now they are hanging out over at Abuela's house this morning to just take that anxiety away. Very, very nice. Fibonacci, you could consider that. Fibonacci is pretty up in the air. As far as my analysis, I will state this before talking about Fibonacci that I haven't studied that for long, long periods of time. I have utilized or studied it before. You could potentially pull up the two-hour chart. You could pull up Fibs. You could take from the high to the low and say, hey, we're getting some kind of bounce. And the way that I would say Fibonacci is beneficial to anyone is just by giving you like if you're it's just like the weekly and monthly expected moves. If you're looking for areas to pay attention, then that's going to be critical. I mean, if you even look at this, you can kind of see how we're getting reactions off of these levels. So you could say, okay, I don't know where this market could bounce, but I know it's bouncing. Okay, well, maybe it bounces to these type of areas. The other thing is, and I'd have to relearn how to make it, but there is this golden pocket, right? So if you get a two-hour reaction, this would be a very good level for liquidity, according to your Fibonaccis. Then you could say, okay, so this area right here is potentially a good level for us to retest to grab liquidity. Okay, that's the golden pocket. But how can I trust it? Well, if it's saying we're going to potentially reject from that and continue trend, well, then the weekly expected move would potentially agree with that. If price action gets into consideration, you would say, hey, that is within this gap right here, which means that's those core sellers, right? You have core sellers pretty much throughout this entire move, actually. But right in here, that does make sense. So that Fibonacci would make sense to pay attention to. But I do want to put the disclaimer of, you don't see me pull up Fibonacci's constantly because it doesn't necessarily benefit me personally, right? It doesn't benefit my analysis exactly. The weekly and monthly expected moves for my type of analysis does work a lot better for looking for the next move, if that makes sense. If you utilize Fibonacci's and you study it longer than me, I'm not saying that they are bad. I want to be very clear about that because sometimes I say stuff like I don't use something. Like I said, I got rid of volume profile. People are like, you hate volume profile. I was like, and I was like, no, I think it's useful. That's why I used it for a bit of time. But just since I used weekly and monthly moves, it becomes less of a, less of a reason, right? My three to five reasons to take a trade, right? It becomes less of a reason to me. I put other things above that. I put weekly moves above that. I put divergence above that. I put trend above that personally. That's fine, Colin. Yeah, perfectly fine. So I calculate them using the options data, fresh data every single Friday. We calculate those weekly expected moves. Well, I calculate them over the weekend at some point on Friday. All right, whenever I get away from, get a moment away from the girls, which is usually Saturday morning, they're 68% zones. So 68% of the time you'll land in there. 68% of the time you'll land in that zone. 32% of the time you'll land outside of them in one direction. Some people say 16, 16. I think that's fine. I just say 32, so I kind of am convinced like, hey, don't mess around with those percentages. But that's pretty much it. Now, there's ways to utilize them. We talk about those constantly. So you just kind of got to keep an ear out for when we're talking about it, talking about it like a price, like a target for a trade or like a target to look for a trade, right? If we see a two, if I saw, so let's ask chat. Let's see if people, if we do this, and we bounce, and we do this, and we bounce, and you see this on your MACD, let's draw it up. Now, let's see what people think. I'm sure you could say exactly what I would be saying. All right, and we get confirmation right here. And let's say it happens on the RSI as well. Let's say we go a little bit deeper here, we go up, we bounce back down, and we curl up. And you see this, right? You see divergence, you see divergence, and you see the downward direction outside of the monthly move. What will I be saying? You know, people, some people here, since 8,000 subscribers, I appreciate you. Thank you so much for supporting and hanging out here, thinking this information is helpful so that more people can see it. That's fantastic. But what would we kind of think is going to happen here, right? Would we see a big daily drop if I see this signal? Or would we be paying attention to something else? [00:40:06] Speaker 2: Right, two-hour divergence, two-hour divergence outside of the monthly move. Nope. Good job, Iden. [00:40:18] Speaker 1: Pay attention to the dollar. The dollar is important right now. If you're not watching the dollar, this is one of the best times if you are someone who is trying to get better, and you're like me years ago, who's looking at charts for 12 hours a day, just trying to get better, trying to see what's best for you. That's perfectly fine. Don't overdo it. Don't put a million things in your arsenal. You just need to figure out what really makes sense to you and gives you the best edge. That's the best. But someone just said reversal time. So we're going to utilize our skills in this made-up scenario right now, just to discuss what we look for around monthly moves for our boy Colin, okay? How we utilize these monthly moves is also for reversals. If I see all of this on the MACD, on the RSI, with confirmation below the monthly move, the next likely move is a daily move to the upside. And depending on where this MACD is on the daily is how I look at what could potentially happen with those signals, right? But what I would expect with that two-hour divergence at the monthly is some kind of daily move to the upside. That means maybe a daily lower high comes in. We would also pay attention to failure of the trade, right, at the end of the month. That would be important. But the daily move to the upside would be very probable, and then you would look for a potential lower high if you are negative. If you're positive, though, you have to start to say, what? Hey, yeah, we broke the low, but we're still positive. So test the high. Go make a new one. It's on the table, right? So that's how you can utilize it. You can use them as like great areas to look for your edge, great areas to look for your three to five reasons, right? They're great areas to look for continuation, right? If you're looking for a potential setup or something this week, well, if you do this and you doodle around, you doodle around, you get up to here midway through the week, and then you start to roll in this two-hour, maybe it even goes positive for a moment, and then it rolls, you would say, hey, that is test the logo, make a new one. Where can we point to? Oh, I can utilize both. I can say, hey, I can pay attention to this for a trade setup. I can see if the five reasons come up. If the five reasons come up, I can take something, and I can target the monthly expected move. If I wanted to, because I know that these levels are pretty critical, well, if we get there very quickly and I don't see reversal signals on a 30-minute, well, then I can look for this to maybe take a lot of profit and leave some runners. Maybe we get a little 30-minute bounce, and then we go all the way down to the weekly expected move, and then I make more money off of the runners, right? I can make that whole plan just because I have weekly and monthly expected moves up. If I did not have weekly and monthly expected moves, I'd be kind of walking in more blind, which is, I believe, how most people are looking at markets. Most people go in blind. And I think this, if you really are someone who truly struggles with understanding how the market moves, then you really are blind if you don't have weekly expected moves. Weekly expected moves can literally take someone who is completely unaware of how markets move and have them learn how they move in like a month. And that's why we have the core sale up. But you're welcome to just stay here. You don't have to go get it. You're welcome to just stay here and keep asking questions. That's what I want. You could get 100% certainty. And that's important. I'm glad you joked about it, Colin, because that means you have a good mindset already. You know, you say you don't know much about these, but immediately your mindset towards probabilities about the market is correct. There is always a probability that you are wrong. Always. 99%. And I like to say, and people said this, we said this like a lot during our, you know, two years of straight live shows almost every single day. We would say the market is never 100%. There is all, there should always be a 1% guy on your shoulder going, yeah, this is weird. Right. We kind of do this guy. We used to drop this guy. Right. If we get to look at the annual move, the annual move, right? We get there. Everyone goes, we're going to sky through. I don't know about that. I think we're going to pull back. Oh, we pulled back too far. Oh, maybe we're going to set up that lower high. If we set up that lower high, then this guy over here is going to go, well, we rejected off of here. We went negative. We kind of went too deep in these, uh, in these people right here. We kind of went below there. So maybe we're going to reject from this weekly expected move, right? That's all we do. You just, you're just kind of that guy always. That's you. IWM getting that bounce. Very, very nice. IWM still is more so within the realm of saying like, Hey, we can head to the upside. I know that's crazy. It does have the door open for downside, very obviously, but you can still see here that it's like up terrible confirmation of this terrible confirmation of this, by the way, we went over that in the YouTube video on IWM. So it fails, right? Fails and comes down. And then you would say, what? Well, if we curl up two hours, curl up. All right. Let's say we go one more bar right here. You're probably going to cross up that MACD, which means what? Test the high, go make a new one. And guess what? You might see that reversal signal for IWM where towards the annual expected move, which is what we were looking for. I would invite that. I would love to see that. I would love to see that because that's what I'm really looking for. I'm really looking for IWM to get there. The problem is you have opened the door to more downside on the 30 minute chart. So how likely is it to see this type of bar right now? That's kind of how you look at it. You go, well, I have zero hints, zero, right? If we just doodle in here, no, we need to see positivity. If we just doodle, doodle, doodle, and we go like this, and then we reject, and you see that cross down by the end of the day, test the logo, make a new one. The 30 minutes too negative to suggest that IWM is building back right now. I think more people discussing dead cat bounce here for a shorter time frame dead cat bounce, that would be, that is kind of probably the better way to think about it, but also having that 1% or maybe use 10% right now going, well, maybe I'll pay attention in case this market's been pretty resilient. So let me pay attention. If there is a 30 minute high, I want to make sure to have that 1% to 10% guy to tell me, hey, maybe we need to adapt. Maybe we need to flip here. Because if I don't have that guy, then I hold on to losing trades. If I don't have that guy, I take shorts at a lower monthly expected move, right at a big drop, right when we're likely to see a dead cat bounce. I take shorts, right when I see a 95% probability for volatility to drop off and the spy to bounce. All right. It can keep you from, that's the best part too, Colin, is it can keep you from making, not only it can help you make better decisions, but it can keep you from making bad ones, which is kind of the same, which is kind of the same saying just said in a different fashion, right? A good decision is a good decision if it saves you money or makes you money, right? So plan if it goes wrong. Can we still see the names on the right? Shrink them up just a tiny bit. I don't know, man. See, we discussed the IPO. A lot of IPOs, like I said, they go up, they crash down. They come to the middle and they find their ground. They find their place. It just depends because if the middle is, that means like between this, you have kind of a big range and you would say maybe we're attracted to the middle of the average of that range. You would hope because if you start to doodle down here, then you're at the risk of seeing one of those, well, you know, people will accumulate, I'm sure they will accumulate space eggs, but you're in risk of being like stuck down there for a long period of time. And some IPOs, you know, bad ones, they'll go like this and then they'll drop off. They'll go, ah, we're going to get to that center and then they'll fail and they'll hang out down here, right? You would like to see that center hit. Now, that being said, I haven't looked at the IPO like at all. I haven't looked at it at all. I would be cautious with anything connected to Elon Musk, market makers, big money, Tesla. I've talked about how it moves. Tesla is a heavy retail stock. I assume that they will do exactly what they do with Tesla over at SpaceX over time, which means it will be a heavy options stock, it'll be heavily priced options stock, and it will get major big moves. Even when stocks are kind of slow, it will get big moves because it'll want to rip options money away from retail. Retail really likes Tesla. So I would assume that over time, that SpaceX will be in that boat just because it's collected to Elon and people and retail really likes to trade Tesla. Trend lines, it depends on what I'm looking at. So trend lines for, say, weekly, daily charts, yes. Trend lines for shorter time frames, two hour, 30 minute. I won't bring them up very often. Trend lines, the best trend lines are for like the dollar. Dollar, the 10-year yield, things like that, I think are better for like trend lines. Right? I think this is a lot better to pay attention to the dollar, the 10-year yield, bigger things, maybe even like US oil, like certain commodities. But the dollar is a great thing to utilize trend lines. But overall, I think weekly and daily charts, you can utilize trend lines. For the most part, two hour, 30 minute, those trend lines, they just get broken so often. So as timeframes get smaller, right? As we go from weekly down to daily, down to two hour, down to 30 minute, down to five minute, you see more and more of those instances take place because you have more days, right? There's more days than there are weeks. Pretty simple statement. So am I likely to see more crazy things on the weekly bars every single, like every other week? Or am I more likely to see crazy things on the daily more often? And you would kind of say, oh, well, you know, the amount that you see would grow, right? So you end up with kind of this triangle here, right? You end up with this triangle. And you would kind of say, okay, so on the weekly, I might see this amount of instances. That's the correct percentage. But since there's more daily bars happening, I'm likely to see those crazier, like more crazy instances, just from a numbers perspective on the daily, daily versus the like 30 minute, two hour, or even five minute. 10 second chart. I'll pull it up. 10 second chart. On the dollar? No, no. No, I ain't doing this. That's gonna, that's gonna make me age. Even more. That's just, that's just like, I can't, people that do that. I think that's more for like quant for like, what is it? The algorithm guys. The algorithm boys might be using those seconds. Wondering what to do. Expecting a sell off, which will cause a price drop, but I'm a novice. And that's all right. You're accumulating is most likely never a bad thing. Tesla is just in a weird spot. Tesla is leaning towards a weekly pullback to be a hundred. You can see the daily lower high. That's kind of what we're worried of. You would kind of put it like this. Hey, if this daily can reverse to the upside, we can extend. If it doesn't though, the signals above it are going to take over fully. And you're going to see this weekly confirmed down. Now, if you're just accumulating, right? Like $500 a month or whatever a month or something like that. Or something like that. Then you would go, okay, well, if I see the weekly pull down to here and then cross up while it's still by that center line, then I might be pretty happy and be like, all right, I'm ready to invest more money. But yeah, that weekly curls down, I would expect some pain to at least $325. That was the center point we found. But if you really think about this, if we want to go through a crash, then bam, bam, bam. You're looking back towards these areas. Now, that's not what I'm leaning towards. I'm leaning towards the weekly to pull down and then confirm up with a higher low or pull down and get to that $325 and go to the upside. I still believe weekly correction, weekly pullback is the most probable for the market. So I will consider that with Tesla. Yeah, you can always utilize monthly news with those as well, though. That's over on Patreon. We will be, once the live show goes to kind of Patreon or just members, we might do a YouTube thing. I don't know what we're doing yet. For now, we're just doing live video all summer. But when that happens, we'll just have the monthly and weekly levels up for every single chart that we really look at that we have. Hey, thanks. Thanks, Zeon. No, no, no, no, no, Zeon. No, thank you. I hope you have a great rest of your day, too, man. Google showing poor relative strength. RSI below 30. So this is rolling. It does have the opportunity to bounce. That's the crazy part because you have good buyers. This could bounce. So let's look at the two-hour chart. So if the 30-minute can carve this out here, then you would say this is going to stretch to that center line at the least. So if the 30-minute can confirm right here, you could potentially target a weekly expected move. But either way, if this wants to reject right now, you can start to watch for divergence, right? But I think either way, you really look at this and you say some kind of continuation either now or if that 30-minute can confirm, it might be later, is very, very likely for Google based on this MACD. It means that lower price in the next like 30 days makes sense until we see this really go like, I would say it had to go to that weekly move and really carve out that higher low on the two-hour or squeeze and then get that higher low over here. Notice this. Notice this, right? Left head, get that right shoulder. You'd really be wanting a squeeze to be convinced that this goes higher in a squeeze. I'm not even saying that that's necessarily a good setup. The 30-minute could be viewed as a good setup. But if you're going to do something like that, you just got to be really careful in these stages. If you have like a weekly move right here, you have to be careful because this will still be negative. But it would be a form of like rejection higher low. It would be a form of 30-minute higher low, which means that two-hour can extend. But failure at any point seems to be more probable. It looks like you're trying to fail like right now. That RSI is getting really close to crossing that signal line. It would be nice to kind of go like, uh, get a big move like this and then fail that move and kind of set up a 30-minute divergence over here. That would be sick. We'll see what takes place with this. This will be interesting. Let's do it. Let's look at the monthly move for you. AMC. We don't have anything for AMC. Remember, that one's kind of blacked out for this month. We'll just put it as blank. Yeah. So you see the 30-minute? If the 30-minute can curl up here, then where could you go to? You could extend. You could really extend. But if the two-hour crosses down, where are you more likely to go to, right? As you just got into a negative trend, you get a bounce, you reverse down. Where are you very likely to go? See, well, look, Google's kind of one of those ones. This is definitely within range, just a couple of points, within 1%. So 348, 346 can act like magnets. And you're pointing your trend and you're pointing directly pretty much to it. So you would say like 346 is more so an area I think the market gets to. Not bad timing on Google to watch for these things. Look at that. Not bad timing. Look at the daily came down. The daily confirms back. If I do my homework right here, the daily confirms back up. Test the high. Go make a new one. So not bad. Definitely not bad to pay attention to. Just needs a little bit more patience for now. We look at Google in like two days. Look at Google in like two days. MSTR, if you guys are here for the live shows with MSTR, you guys know my feelings. I will not put any money ever into MSTR unless I see it as like a fun YOLO trade or something like that. Just because that stock is run by a person who is known, well, at least did do, I can't remember what his site, but it's Michael Saylor, right? He was fraudulent in the last business that he was fraudulent in the last business that he really ran. Someone probably knows it in the chat. I can't think of it off the top of my head. [00:58:36] Speaker 2: Micron? No. That might be it. I don't know. [00:58:44] Speaker 1: I can't remember. But if that is something that happened to me when I was very young, I put all of my money into, because I didn't know how to do things. I put all of my money back when I was like 22 into a company. All the numbers look good. All the fundamentals look good. I was more so into fundamentals then. And I was like, it looks great. Every earnings looks great. Everything looks great. Boom. I lose 100% of my money in like a matter of days because the company was fraudulent. So I am very hesitant to mess with companies that are run by someone who previously ran a fraud. Yeah, it was part of the dot-com bubble, I think. Ragseater in the 2000s. I still short MSTR 500. That might not, I mean, you can also utilize Bitcoin for MSTR. You can look at Bitcoin. We can analyze Bitcoin, by the way, because Bitcoin looks interesting. Daily scale here. What do we want to see for Bitcoin to really, like, what's very probable for Bitcoin? Very probable for Bitcoin is like, do this and then come to the downside and get to here. Right? We see no turnaround signals yet. Right? We see no higher low. Right? We see no rejection divergence even, like we did over here. But the higher low over here was fantastic. Then what happens to the upside? Well, you start to see little divergences on your MACD, not on the R side at the same time. But they are warning flags. The four-hour higher low, or lower high, sorry. But what we look for here is kind of, do we actually see a reversal signal? Right? Do we see something similar to this into this? Do we see divergence here? Do we see us build back and then get a higher low? Right? That's what we would be looking for. Because on the weekly scale, you're doing something simple here. This is a great thing to point out. And I'm so glad that 157 are you here right now to see it. The weekly scale for Bitcoin. If you go back to when we were analyzing, we said, if you fail any kind of move up in here for like a retest, you fail at any point, you're starting to point where? You're starting to point directly towards this line. We pointed out, I believe, even at the time we were pointing out these divergences in here that could pop to the upside. But if that confirms back down, people are going to go, oh, this is going to 10,000. They're going to, they literally are going to start to say that. They're going to say, we're going to go all the way down into here. Um, the more likely thing is we set up a weekly divergence and then Bitcoin starts to boom. Right? If, if you want to see if Bitcoin is a good opportunity, that's all you need to see. [01:01:39] Speaker 2: Bing! [01:01:39] Speaker 1: That can take a long time to form, longer than you think. That can take a whole month to form. So if I want to know, hey, is this weekly? Is this, is this going to turn up? Well, if I see daily divergence or a daily higher low, then I would start to think about making a decision about Bitcoin. I would look for confirmations, maybe from the weekly to be sure. If I get confirmations through the daily and I have divergence, if I have enough of an edge there, if I have three to five reasons, in this case, macro scale, I would consider the trend line a reason, right? Hey, we created a reversal signal, but where did we create the reversal signal? We created it off of a major trend line. So if I create it off of a major trend line, I can put more weight behind it. It can be utilized as a reason. No, it wasn't Micron. It's whatever his, uh, not, not his company. I believe the company, I can't even find the company that I invested in back then. It was like, uh, it wasn't the highest market cap, anything like that, but they literally went to zero. Like they literally got taken off exchange, deleted, everything wiped out. When I was like, I think I was like 21, 22. I'm pretty sure. Maybe I was even younger. I might've been even younger. I don't know. I just remember talking to my dad about it and him being like, well, it's a lesson to you. People lie. I don't, I don't think it was, Micron's not the right one. It's whatever company that Michael, here, I can look it up. Uh, cause we didn't, we used to talk about it. Uh, Michael, what is it? Uh, fraud in trouble. [01:03:36] Speaker 2: Let's see what it's there. Oh, look at this. Did they ever say, oh, overstated the companies. Well, that's not right. Now, this thing, AI is so dumb sometimes. [01:04:12] Speaker 1: But it also says him and two of the other executives, um, were overstating. So two of the other executives and Michael Saylor were committing fraud in 2000. I just can't think of the company name. [01:04:28] Speaker 2: I don't know why it won't pop up. But this, yeah, it sucks. [01:04:36] Speaker ?: Okay. [01:04:42] Speaker 2: Has this been wiped out of memory? Someone's gotta, gotta, gotta have it. [01:04:56] Speaker 1: It's just sipping a massive amount of Goulet. I don't think you're wrong in considering a drop is going to happen. I mean, this signal alone from IWM, the tagging of the cues of the annual expected move. But this signal alone lets you know, like, hey, a weekly is, is going to pull back. And that's the key thing. It's, it's, if even if you know a big drop or you, or you know that a big drop is probable, it's what do you put, what, how do you describe a big drop? Do you describe it as that's a big drop, that's going to be a bear trap? Do you describe, you know, from what you're seeing right now, right? The information you have is present. You have to let the future prove itself and then see if what you analyzed before is starting to add up with what's happening now. So if IWM pulls back on the weekly, everything's pointing to pullback. Everything's pointing to correction into an upward move. That correction can be 10%, 15%, right? Once we start to dabble with lows, that's when the market becomes risky, right? But right now, everything I see says, hey, if we do see a drop here, a bigger drop, like you're suggesting, then it would most likely be a considered in the future, people will look back and be like, man, that was a nice weekly pullback. Was it micro strategy? [01:06:21] Speaker 2: I felt like it had a different name. I feel like it had a different name. Maybe not. [01:06:36] Speaker 1: Maybe you're right. Because that's the information I saw, but I was pretty sure it had a different name. [01:06:44] Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just do this. Let's just do this. Maybe it was micro strategy. I was like dead set that it was a different name. But yeah, that's the important thing. [01:07:19] Speaker 1: It's fine to be like, hey, a big drop's coming, but does that big drop have weekly diversions behind it? Does that big drop have no weekly diversions, right? This big drop right here had weekly diversions behind it. So something really bad can happen, right? But this one here has nothing behind it. So if this has nothing behind it, as far as weakness and momentum, then we would assume that we could come down into those good buyers, maybe towards 723, which happens to be directly lined up with the high. And if we curl to the upside, this curls up into positive territory. It's just a pullback. We see no divergence, no lower high. So it's different than over here. But I'm guessing that if I go look at a few key people that you guys told me to go look at back when we were doing live video, I'm assuming if I go over there, they're going to be talking about Armageddon. And that's perfectly fine, I guess. If that's, that is, that is entertainment, by the way. If someone is not telling you the other side to this, if someone's not telling you this, pretty much, then you are definitely getting a bias outlook, like 100% you are getting a bias outlook. And I'm going to guess that whoever you're watching has done this plenty of times before. Plenty of times. And you've been like, ah, they moved the goalposts, they moved the goalposts, right? Let's just get that update over with right now. And let's get a, let's get an 85% probability for a down day tomorrow. That'd be sick. [01:08:57] Speaker 2: It is a different name, isn't it, Justin? It's like, it's not Apollo or something like that. It's not. I can't get it. What's my rule? [01:09:18] Speaker 1: It depends on what you mean for look back. So the important thing with divergence is looking near term enough that nothing's violated. Mainly, it's about violations, keeping trend, and things like that. So if I would look at the weekly scale, and I would say, I don't know, let's just say this, I'm saying this is divergence, right? You would have to say, something bad already happened, we got a negative move, we figured it out, and this is probably a whole new set. It's kind of like a common sense thing, in my opinion, looking at charts over time. It's like, okay, we have weekly divergence here. Why do I not count it as a divergence all the way across? Well, because we've seen a lot of price action since then. And therefore, most of the time you will see it, and that's the other thing, most of the time you will see it in the near price action. For a big major top, you will, very, very high probability to see it in the near price action. So the fact that we don't see it in the near price action here at all, and we have information of the annual expected move, we can do this, and then we would have more of a reason. Then we would really start to more so be like, all right, so you'll hear me at times say, you know, a little bit of openness. If it is a little bit extended, I'll say this can be an extended divergence, right? But I maybe will follow that up with seeing it in the near price action makes it a lot easier, makes it a lot better. It makes it a lot clearer. We actually did that over here. We did that with the 30-minute right here. Hey, we wiped out the 30-minute divergence that could have been created here, so we might create another one right here. And then we went to the other side, we said, okay, this is our warning flag to watch out for. Ooh, we start to fall. We did that like last week. Near price action really matters. Does that make sense? I want to make sure that makes sense. Byron, if you're like, if at all you're looking at a divergence and you kind of look at it and you're like, eh, something about this is fishy. There was a violation here. Eh, something about this is fishy. It went negative with the divergences, but then figured it out and turned back up and really screamed to the upside. Yeah, like having that just good, I don't even know what to call it, outlook, I guess. Like, common sense is very good. Like, am I going to use a divergence that's extended across on a two-hour chart for like three weeks? Or if I see a negative move, am I going to consider the next move a divergence point? Or would I more likely be looking for lower high? That's kind of... If it's already been... Yeah, okay, you're saying it almost better. If it's already been worked down the price, it kind of resets. Yeah, that's one scenario. Then you have the squeeze through type of ones where it doesn't go negative, but you see a squeeze. That's more the violation of divergence. It's kind of like here. All right, we actually stated this is extended across, but I think because it's extended across, as long as we're not violating and we roll, but notice as we extend it, extend, we violate, that's kind of both happening at the same time. It figured its stuff out and it extended. So we assumed a second push higher would go to the upside. We are wrong in this scenario, right? Because we were able to drop through, there's no 30-minute higher low, nothing in here, no two-hour confirmation to risk money. So thank you for that, right? Saving money is just as good as making money in the market. But since this went too low, we would have to consider both now. Another thing that can help you with this is price action. But you have to make sure that price action and your indicators are kind of lining up. That 1%, dog. What do I think about the Qs? I just think the Qs are doing exactly what the SPY is doing. I think we could see either a 30-minute reaction that fails seems to be the most probable. I want to hang out here almost all day. And I want people to hang out here all day and get bullish. See how they're getting, they're still bearish. So they hang out here all day. This starts to trickle down into here, right? I'd really like to see this trickle kind of down. This is the PCC. This is the put-call ratio. I want people to get kind of bullish. That's a good dead cat bounce thing as well. A dead cat, like a bigger time frame dead cat bounce will bounce. On the 2-hour, get people bullish, and then rip it away from them really fast. That's like bear market behavior. But you can see bear market behavior pretty much any time you're over the level of 20. Yeah, daily expected moves are always in red, just so you have them. Grandpa, they will always be the red. You can look at the right side right here and just look for the highlighted red, not the one that's moving, right? Not the one with the timer underneath. You would look at 7.4193. You would look at 7.3317. It looks like the five-minute chart here is trying to utilize this kind of pile up to get an extended move, which means, hey, what if we, and then we start to crack down? We'll have to find out. But I think we could hang out here. I think we could hang out below the second standard deviation, just hang out there almost all day. We almost happened to get a cat. We just saw a cute cat, and we're suckers. We like animals. But we did not. We did not. We did not. I just have my pit bull and my husky. Google, we've done a few times. I still believe Google on the two-hour chart is about, I mean, 30 minutes gets a higher low here. You can extend the two-hour, but the two-hour is negative. So until I see a higher low or a divergence for the two-hour chart for Google, we pulled up the monthly move and suggested like, hey, even if you get this, if the two-hour fails at any point, you're very likely to go lower down to that monthly expected move. But if I see two-hour divergence at the monthly expected move, that would suggest opportunity. That would suggest that the daily is close to the center line and that if we curl up, so if I see, if I do my two-hour homework right here, utilize my monthly expected move and stuff like that, and this daily says, hey, I have a high probability to turn up according to the two-hour. I can maybe even be early with a couple contracts, and then when that 30 or that daily crosses up, then I can maybe add a couple more. And then I would say, okay, where am I targeting? I'm targeting this month or next month's monthly expected move. Or maybe I just say, hey, I'm going to do a two-hour and target next week. We tag it. We pull back. We curl up. We go again. We target. Go up. It depends on how you like to trade. You know, what's best for you. We try to say that all the time, right? I try to say a lot like, hey, don't follow what I'm doing because we probably think about money differently. That's why we shouted out the book, The Psychology of Money. The Psychology of Money. [01:16:51] Speaker 2: Fantastic book. It explains it to a T. [01:16:58] Speaker 1: Yeah, VIX, we can take a minute. So VIX here dropping off makes sense, right? 95%. We get a drop off. But what happens next, right? What is likely to happen next based on what I'm seeing now, right? If I get more information that changes it, then I have to change. But right now, the 30 minutes in a positive trend, right? Even if this dropped down further and the positive trend didn't work out and say we go down further and we do this, say we go down further and we do this. What is that? It's a higher low for the two hour. It's the two hour getting by the center line. So it's very, very likely that if you do see, it is very likely to see a lower price this week than what we've seen for the SPY. Now, if the two hour builds, we might say, okay, well, it's lower for us. It's still higher probability for us to see a lower price next week, right? If we can extend it, then we kind of have to move the timeline a little bit. Got to stop those goalposts. Yeah, I think and the best part, and I'm going to say this, this is my favorite part about that book, is the topic of enough, right? Everyone thinks about money differently, how you're raised, money conditions, how you're raised, your job right now might make you think of money differently. Having a family makes you look at money differently. I know that firsthand experience on that. I'm less likely to go spend my money in certain places now. How you think about money does matter. If I walked along the street and I picked up $100, one of you might go spend that $100 immediately and say, hey, a free $100, I'm going to go buy stuff. One person might put it in a savings account. One person might put it into a stock they really like. There's all kinds of different decisions if I find $100 on the side of a road, right? So if I see an opportunity, right, which is kind of what that $100 represents, someone could take that opportunity and use it in a million different ways. Someone could go and piss it all away at a casino. Someone could go and piss it all away in a casino called the stock market if they really wanted to, right? They could do an option for the GME squeeze for one week and expect to be right. Tons of different decisions. That's a great book. That's one. The other point, though, is when is enough? I think really before you get trading, what is enough for you? Enough means like when do I have enough money and I can, to me, when do I have enough money to where I can spend more time with family? When do I have enough money that it starts to become a bad ROI on my life itself, right? If I'm sitting, staring at charts and my daughter is begging me to come out and play with her and I have enough, but I keep going, right? Does that make it my life at home better or worse? I think that's the better, the best thing. I do know people where enough is not enough for them. Enough is not enough for them. Their enough is way higher than my enough. And that means what? I have to watch them ignore their kids. I have to watch them ignore all kinds of things. I have to watch them get stressed out about work more often and take that home with them. You have to consider all those things. It will help you as far as not over-trading, too. [01:20:27] Speaker 2: It's a great book. Well, yeah, that's kind of the bad part. [01:20:34] Speaker 1: I'm probably going to start taking some negative trades, not negative profit. I'm saying, like, I might start to take some negative trend trades. So if we get a move potentially to the weekly or we see a 30-minute roll, I might take something a little quick, like a little two-week thing. Yeah, see, like, laws, we might be in a different scenario just because my kids aren't at school right now. But I guarantee you, once these kids are actually, like, in school or something like that, and I don't have those things happening in the background that sometimes make me a little anxious, yeah, we're going to be more having maybe even more of these live shows. That would be great. Hey, thank you, Chart Tears. I appreciate you showing up, and thanks for saying thank you, and thanks for joining us this morning. All right? Have a great day, all right? Yeah, but it is about finding a sweet spot. You don't want to be taking work home with you or anything like that. I know it's the stock market, so you can always take it home with you. It's a very unique balance. And I'm not saying someone's enough is, like, if you're 25 and you're trading and you're getting good at it and you're making a bunch of money and you don't have a family or anything like that, your enough might not be the same as mine. And I think that's great. But it's a great book, guys. It really is. You know, they bring up examples as if you're thinking of investing. It's a great book, too, because they talk a lot about Warren Buffett and the being able to hold through turmoil kind of deal. You like it, Muick? I'm glad. I'm glad. Let's go look at some individuals. Let's just look at, like, Apple. I think Apple on the daily was the one that didn't have divergence. So this one could get a daily reaction to the upside at some point. That one's not going to be fun for a bit. Tesla was pretty fun. I still think a two-hour divergence here would be very nice. I think two-hour high or low, two-hour divergence, right? Something to say we can take back the five-day. Hey, guess what? Bam! Cross through here. Cross through here just for a moment. Come back. Test that five-day. Boom. Right there. There's your lightning bolt. But it does have a daily low or high signal. So I do think that Tesla is at risk of still seeing continued downside until we see, like, two hours show us enough to really talk differently. This was the interesting one. Okay. Amazon was the interesting one because it does show some potential divergences. Now let's pull this up on the charts with all this info. The reason this is so interesting is because it's happening at the monthly expected move. But this saw a major drop-off and even broke the monthly expected move last week. So this could be considered unexpected. But the daily is by that center line. So if I see, like, two-hour divergence, which you kind of have on the RSI, it's just still far away from the center line. That's why it's interesting. You could see, like, triple divergence or something like that. But I'm sure people will make decisions here to say, like, hey, this can go to that. This right now can go to here. So I think Amazon's very, very interesting because it's at its monthly move and you see this kind of tight, tight divergence. [01:24:02] Speaker 2: I thought that one was cool. [01:24:05] Speaker 1: NVIDIA, it looks like, for now, NVIDIA would just, NVIDIA would suggest continuation. Ooh, wait, there's some sneaky stuff happening here. You have a flat. You have two flats. Not something I usually risk money behind, flats. So that is where we get into the topic of the significance of divergence. We talk about that in the course that's on sale for the summer. We do talk about the significance of divergence. So if anything in these videos, anything in these live shows is confusing, yes, ask questions. But also sometimes the course is really good at clearing that up. And you won't have to pay, you know, $1,000 or $2,000 per course like my idiot self did with people who you probably shouldn't trust. I don't even think, I think a lot of those people I was trying to learn from. I think a lot of times the courses went like, hey, there's a bunch of info, like tons, like days worth. But the actual helpful information was just like a couple hours of content. So I tried really hard to, in the course, I haven't changed it too much lately, because I'm really someone who thinks like, these are the things that work. So why would I just try to be smart and act like I, you know, talk about certain things that I don't really utilize. Two hour curls up here, we got to look at 30 minute, I think first. Yeah, 30 minutes still kind of weak here. So the most probable for NVIDIA very simply is 30 minute reacts up, 30 minute rejects. I would rather wait with how the market is, with where volatility is. I still would rather wait probably for the 30 minute higher low, 30 minute divergence. And if you see this, 30 minute divergence here, then you have a very simple, like, this is like a dead cat bounce play. I do take those in high volatility. If I see a 30 minute divergence, like in here, I can potentially target the weekly expected move and know that I'm selling everything immediately because the two hour would be negative even more so at that point. We'd probably be wiping out any kind of two hour divergence or anything. So not bad. The key thing for NVIDIA is the daily chart looks pretty nice here. Pretty much a violation for the RSI and MACD. So if we can figure our stuff out here, your daily can turn around testing off of the 50. What's the other interesting one? I think AMD was fun because of the divergence up ahead. But see how far it is from the center line. So do you think triple divergence is off the table? You can't, you can't really take diverge, like a triple divergence off the table yet. Once you start to do this, even if you're positive, you can look for lower highs. But you just don't want to be like, oh yeah, we're going to crash down if this is curling up in positive territory. It's a pretty simple concept of like, hey, if I curl up in positive territory, I can't really be bearish on the stock for a while. So because of my life and stuff like that, I try to keep the Patreon just as seven bucks. The truth is, I noticed that, especially with two kids, one two years old with a broken leg, one four months old now, having those two things has really taken back my time. Especially when my wife was pregnant, because it was a difficult pregnancy. She overall, I'll tell, I'll just say it very simply, I only charge seven bucks for Patreon, because I can't spend my own personal time answering questions constantly. I used to say email me and I used to answer back, you guys know that. But ever since the second kid, you notice I haven't said that as much. Time has become pretty limited. Thankfully, baby girl grew up enough that I can do this. Mama bear is taking a few hits for me to be with you guys. So let's shout out mama bear. All right. She's a fantastic human being inside and out. She is just a great person. She wants me to be able to hang out with you guys in the morning. And I think that's fantastic. So as far as reaching me goes, you can always shoot me an email. But the best way to reach me is going to be these live shows. You can always shoot me an email, but you can't expect a return on that. Justin, me and Justin used to go back and forth a lot more frequently. Through emails, he would send me things that he's seeing. And we would just more so, more so it's about talking about markets. So as of right now, time very limited. That's why I'm very excited for these girls to grow up a little bit. But at the same time, I don't want to miss that part. You know what I mean? I don't want to miss where they're growing up and I'll never be able to see my daughter as a baby again and things like that. So, yes, I do try to put out as much info as possible, as much of my perspective. And the live show is going to be your best bet in getting any kind of questions answered. Justin's like, you hate me. Yeah. And thankfully, like the thing is, my four-month-old isn't the worst sleeper. It's just my two-year-old is so loud. Like, you know, she's not, I can't call her a bad sleeper if my two-year-old, you know, is eating breakfast and, you know, screams out, I want to watch Cars randomly or something like that. I'm like, okay, I can't really, or I want to watch Bluey, like really loud. And then wakes the baby up. I'm like, I can't really do much about that. Maybe we probably organized our household improperly. But we kind of did organize the house on what's best for me, which is kind of a turning into a blessing and a curse. But it is what's best for me. And she's not a bad sleeper. But my daughter loves to be very loud because I'm a pretty loud person. What are we up to? Well, we were answering a question real quick, but we were kind of looking at AMD, seeing what would be very probable here. Continuation for AMD looks the most probable from the 30-minute perspective with the information we have right now. Two-hour chart trying to go negative. So for whatever reason, we see the two-hour chart cross up. You could see something crazy, right? We could extend this. But we also know what. We see structure to watch out for. And we see a weekly expected move that says full recovery here. Very low probability. Left head. Oh, right shoulder that could have been. We'll find out. But this is something I would have on your radar if you start to see upside for AMD. We pretty much were just talking like, hey, there is potential. To build something in here for a little bounce up to 514. But the 30-minute is so negative that it would probably take a lot of time to see that bounce. Right? You get something like that. You'd have a left head, right shoulder. It's just being prepared. All you have is a negative 30-minute crossing up. It's nothing to hang your hat on. But it means you could get a little retracement probably of this move. I like Bluey. Dude, I do not mind that show. For a kid's show, I don't mind Bluey at all. Not even going to lie. Course is great, man. Hey, thank you, though. Straight to the point. It actually works. Helps red map of where it's likely heading. So thanks for that. Hey, Byron. Thank you so much for taking the course. Really appreciate that, brother. The main thing I appreciate is it helped you. And I'm glad that it was straight to the point for you. That's kind of the point I was making earlier. I try not to put dry info. That's just to make you think that I'm smart. I'm not that smart. I just figured out a few things. And I would love to share those things with you very plainly. I don't know, Blue Collar, but I know this, man. That show is a good one. Now, that show is a good one. But then my daughter expects me to because I'm kind of she calls me bandit sometimes because that's the dad's name or whatever. But yeah, she she sometimes expects me to to play. And I'm like, I'm working. And it's so sad. It's so sad sometimes. Yeah, we can look at commodities and stuff. If you have tickers or something like that you want to look at, we can look at it. I don't mind. Exactly. OK, M-U-I-C, Muick. That's actually something that we kind of teased about a month ago. I'm thinking if I want to put it on Patreon or just put it on YouTube. So I'm still going back and forth. I haven't fully decided yet. But right now I'm rolling out the live. It took me months just to, like, talk to my wife over and over, get to a point where baby's good to do live. So we're going to tackle that. I made sure just to put the course sale up. We're going to not touch on that too much unless people have questions on it, because it'll be up for the entire summer. I would rather you learn from YouTube for a little bit first. But if you're excited, you just want the cut and dry info. You don't want to read between any lines. That's the best way to do it. And then also I will be looking into the spreadsheet for expected moves. But I want to clean mine up first to to make it. I kind of tried to make the video for it, to be honest. And I just looked at my spreadsheet. I sat down to do it and I was like, I am way too unorganized in this spreadsheet. So I'm going to separate it out. [01:34:00] Speaker 2: Oh, coffee. Oh, yes. Is this a coffee? Oh, yeah. Okay, well, let's do it backwards. Let's see. [01:34:18] Speaker 1: You see like this, someone who was asking about like extended divergence, like see how this is like too extended. It feels too extended, but the significance of where it dropped from kind of mattered here. But you still were probably like daily lower high. Okay, now we're going to plummet. Broke through the low, test in the 200 on the weekly. So the weekly 200, very negative. You would say from an investment standpoint, potentially good. The weekly is just a negative, right? You kind of look back and you go, when was coffee a good opportunity? After a squeeze to the upside, we doodle around, we fall down to that 200. Look how, yes, we have daily divergence here. It gets a weekly bounce, but then the weekly comes down one more time. And this is not too far extended. You see that it's just one move. It's just on the weekly scale and you actually get these divergences. So when you get those divergences, that's more of when you say, okay, there's a great opportunity. So as of right now, do you see that? Do you see a higher low? Do you see divergence? No, but it's not a bad time to look at it and mark it off. Put a little indicator there saying like, or put a little alert or something just so you check it like once a week. And then if you start to see like, oh, we did get a move up that failed, but then we created a potential divergence. That could be an opportunity. Hey, we did this, but we created a higher low. Okay, that's an opportunity. We're going to start to see more of something like this. Coffee most likely will continue to go to the upside, like very long term. [01:35:54] Speaker 2: There's just too much info. [01:35:55] Speaker 1: You don't know how to actually apply them. Really? Yeah. So these are simple and you can add to it, right? I'm not saying that things that you guys use are bad. I try to really say that a lot. I just put out what works for me. And if you have something that adds to it, that makes you better, fan-freaking-tastic, right? Fantastic. Yeah. So I'd be more so looking for something like this. You're kind of seeing this, uh, uh, uh, maybe you get like this to happen and then you fail that and you come down. That would really say it. Investing-wise though, I mean, investing-wise, you're like, hey, that's the 200. It's a great price. You kind of look at it like this and you're like, hey, someone bought it here. That's a 43% discount, right? You can look at it that way if you're planning on just holding for your entire life. Uh, but for the most part here, weekly divergence is something you'll really be watching for weekly at higher low. Because it seems like the daily is just kind of flopping. Yeah. Daily's kind of flopping. Let's look back here and see if this gave you hints. You see this? So see, this is where that weekly curled up. So like, this is where it says like, hey, this first curl up you see like right now, like present time, could be one of these scenarios where you see a divergence on the daily actually form that's very clear. That would be best to play this. And then you kind of see a move to the upside, right? And then that move to the upside gets a what? It's a lower high, then gets another lower high in negative territory. And then you come down and do what? You make divergences again. Notice it's triple divergence. So be expecting traps, tricks and traps. But you got daily divergence here. That means the best time that previous it was, in my opinion, to invest in coffee here. [01:37:58] Speaker 2: Right here. [01:37:59] Speaker 1: What's that bar at? What's the closing price of that bar? $149.30. $149.30 was the confirmation that it was high probability to turn up the weekly. And considering the weekly has potential double bottom, has potential divergences. Notice we did still curl down and we tested the low, but then we made a divergence with that point. That divergence right there tells you, oh, we're likely to see what? Well, technically it's saying we're likely to see a monthly move to the upside. And what was the monthly? The monthly was by the center line. So you had the daily, the weekly, both give you signals at the same time confirming to say that the monthly is going to see a big move. And as that is a nice little pullback here for the monthly by the center line, you would expect what? Test the high, go make a, nope, sorry, hiccup. Go make a new one. So if you see weekly divergence in here and that curls up, where is it? It's positive. It's positive with no divergence on the MACD, no divergence on the RSI, bam, no divergence on the RSI. So yeah, you'd always watch out for the lower high scenarios, right? If this does this and fails, yeah, you're watching it, but this could suggest what a weekly divergence would lead into a monthly move to the upside where we would test the high or go make a new one. So coffee, very good thing to watch right now. I'm glad you brought it up. I think it's a fantastic one when considering the bigger timeframes, considering investments. [01:39:34] Speaker 2: Very, very nice. Thank you for bringing it up. [01:39:41] Speaker 1: All right, good. 30 minute. We're still spending time here. This is what I want. I still want us to spend kind of all day here. I don't, I mean, for me personally, I would like to see us draw down more. I would like volatility to increase. I like volatility when it's increased. I love markets when they're volatile. But if we would do like this, that's when it kind of gets violated. We would really just want to kind of spend all day right in this area and then kind of roll tomorrow. Does that make sense, Tyler? Was that good? So you would say the quadruple divergence on copper HG is significant for a drawdown. I do like to look at copper. What, you like this one, HG? So we'll do daily again. So you see the day, yeah. So the daily divergences here are serious. This means you're vulnerable to a weekly pullback right now. Now you can fail that, right? The daily has to confirm up in positive territory to even be considered a failure. But the weekly here. Ooh. Yeah, see, that's divergence there. That is technically divergence there. You could probably extend this one across. I wouldn't say extend it across for this based on just how this looks with the price action or like with the bars. Just immediately, I'm like, I do like that we see it in the near price action. Let's put it that way. I like that we see this in the near price action. It's not in those overbought areas. But if the weekly would cross down here, technically, that would say you're at risk of doing something like, oh, break that low, cross to the upside, see another one to the downside. Maybe you solve it by then with like monthly pullback or something. But yes, I think you are correct to pay attention to at least the divergences in the near term for the weekly. What is it? This just tells you from the investment perspective, if I'm looking at copper and I'm an investor, maybe I do take some off the table. Well, I'm sure people hold this most of the time. But you could say I could just be someone who's being pretty dynamic. I'm moving back and forth is kind of what that means. But this would kind of say maybe I just have my investment and then I have part of that investment. I trade back and forth. Some people do 50-50, 50%, 50%. If I see major reversal signals, I'll take off 50%. And then if I see a weekly pullback or I see a monthly pullback, then I can apply that 50% later. I don't think monthly. These are big time frames, by the way. Yeah, monthly should say extension here. Even if you go through all of that turmoil, and just because I analyze this way, I never think I'm leaning that way. Do your homework. Make sure to pay attention if you're wrong. You know, you've looked at this more than I have probably. But if this was an opportunity, look at the last opportunity. I mean, it was down here on the monthly scale. It was simply down here. Bam. All right. So if I do this, and then I go like that, if I do this and get by that center line, and I curl up, and I see weekly divergence right here, curl to the upside, test the high, go make a new one. Then on this second push, I want to be a little more hesitant about, you know, monthly divergence and things like that. And that's more the investment perspective. So your weekly is saying that a monthly pullback is possible here, and I want to be clear to you and say, it's very likely a pullback. The way that that's not a pullback is if you really start to like break critical levels. Right? You bust below this, you're starting to really get some steam to the downside, right? You go negative, then you start to look for those lower highs. Do that. You break this, it's pretty much set in stone that you're going to test the lows. But hey, just because it's not set in stone, right? Markets are never 100%. But yes, I do think the weekly divergences are there. If that was your main question, I would even argue that there is a daily topping signal right here. We have to see if it is going to play out. Right? It might be a scenario of if that daily curls up. It might be, I'm not wrong. I'm just wrong right now. [01:44:01] Speaker 2: Yeah, have a great day, Justin. So we'll play over here. Okay. 30 minutes. I'm sorry. All right, guys, I haven't taken a break yet. [01:44:55] Speaker 1: Let me, uh, let me go use the restroom and then I'll be right back. All right. Give me two seconds. Well, I might need more than two seconds. You got to give me a little more than two seconds. Give me two minutes. [01:45:04] Speaker 2: Be right back. [01:45:09] Speaker ?: All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. [01:49:09] Speaker 2: We're back, Turkish. [01:49:13] Speaker 1: Watch the short squeeze. Hey, I'd be, uh, cool with that too. Pretty much like when you're not at risk of anything, then you're cool with anything. You know what I mean? We did talk about how the two hour is still, uh, positive. So just be aware that lower prices will still be. So that squeeze you're talking about lower prices for the SPY will be high probability until you completely see like this level taken out. So unless we see a squeeze through, um, that comes back probably for a retest, but until you see it squeezed through, it's probably going to be, uh, it still is more probable to see lower prices. [01:49:55] Speaker 2: I always got to be careful when I say the word probably. [01:50:01] Speaker 1: Well, I thought I found my, uh, old business stats book. I thought about giving you guys tests for fun, like old questions we used to get and stuff. [01:50:09] Speaker 2: Oh, you bought six eighties. No, no, no. Once you get to the seven 25 or no, no, no, no, no. That might not be right. [01:50:33] Speaker 1: Now once you get to, okay, six eighties, you test 700, you look what it looks like. You see what it looks like. The value goes up. You kind of sell it to people who think the crash continues. Should we get to six 80? Yes. Six 80 would put you into the next pool though. You might get a little bit low. We'll see. It's still very early on in this, right? We have to see if this thing's going to tumble. The daily is not negative yet. 30 minute rejection would be probably the best help in understanding which way this market wants to go. Right. We get to the five, you reject, but whoever said seven 50 this morning, we talked about that low, low probability. But like I said, Hey, some people can get anything right. Seven 50 would be 1% move. If you catch that, Hey, you're the 1% who got it right. That's dope. [01:51:30] Speaker 2: So it's start getting smoked. [01:51:33] Speaker 1: What I would suggest is I'm, I'm, I'm guessing Justin black that maybe you saw, maybe you made a decision at the end of the day on Friday. [01:51:43] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:51:45] Speaker 1: Did you, if we made that decision at the end of the day on Friday or like right away in the morning this morning, um, just understanding those simple percentages based on volatilities, big moves, a positive 40% move does mean some high percentages for a bounce. Uh, the other thing is closing way outside of the weekly expected move, uh, getting that to continue most likely would be necessary for like black Swan. We can hope. Yeah. Well, we always can hope we got Jesus. All right. Oh, um, for today, we will be stopping in about 20 minutes, 20 minutes for today. I think tomorrow and Wednesday, we should be good to go the full, uh, to 11 or even 1130. But Abuela only has a limited amount of time this morning. And then the girls come in and my daughter will probably scream at me. You guys probably hear in the mic soon in the next, if they, if they can get here in 20 minutes. [01:53:02] Speaker 2: Do the charts in my perspective agree with the gold move? We can look at like a different outlook here. [01:53:05] Speaker 1: We can look at futures. Weekly. Yes. Uh, the charts here would immediately agree with, at least from just viewing the weekly chart. Oh, wait, you said 3,500, 3,500. I don't think the charts agree with that. I think the charts do agree with, we should see higher prices for gold. I don't necessarily, I do think the wonkiness in these, uh, MACDs makes it difficult for the shorter time frame. That's why I immediately, remember we went over GLD and it was so wonky on the daily. Um, we went over that pretty thoroughly. If you want to go back about what, 15, 20 minutes. But as far as, uh, the futures here go, you just kind of say, Hey, the weekly is by that centerline. All that has to happen here is you see like a solid couple of bars that take you above that nine on the weekly, that red line coming across. And this would say, swing me, right? It would say swing. And it would say, yeah, test the high, go make a new one. It means there's a potential trade in here for the weekly scale. And then we have, for GLD, you can utilize GLD monthly and weekly expected moves, even for futures here. What you would do is you would say, okay, this went like that. And then you would come over and be like, all right, so the price is going up and up for, for gold futures. Oh, sorry. This is a monthly. Where's the weekly? God, I'm burping a ton. LinkedIn by a centerline. And you could say, okay, uh, if I see gold get to here very quickly, I can make a decision. All right. If it takes a few weeks and it starts to leak into July and we get a new updated monthly expected move, maybe we get up to here and then we get a new monthly move. Then you could say, okay, my target might be that monthly upward move. And then that, that would technically be target there. So gold, I do not see the, uh, move to 3,500 yet. Uh, we would need to, uh, we would need to, over here, we would probably need to go more negative, right? Get to like 4,000 slowly, but get this to go negative. And then you would see some kind of reaction, maybe to test five again, and then start to rotate down. And over here, the door would start to more open to 3,500 or deeper. But, uh, for now you're looking like weekly swing trade to the upside is the most probable. And I don't think that, but I don't think the daily charts giving you a lot of hints. So it'd more just be like, I'm going to swing based on the weekly chart, which can kind of lag you behind certain moves. You may be sitting there going, hey, maybe I'll wait for a daily higher low. Maybe I'll wait for a daily divergence, but the divergence is there. They look really, really wonky. [01:56:20] Speaker 2: Is that 4? Isn't this looking like a lower high on the 2 hour for SPY? [01:56:30] Speaker 1: Chris? Um, 4 daughters, you're outnumbered. Me and my wife already had the talk. We're like, we don't want to be outnumbered. This is great. Thanks. Hey, Cenk, thank you so much for saying that. I appreciate that. I appreciate that. [01:56:44] Speaker 2: I haven't heard of that, uh, trading tournament, by the way. Yeah, gold. [01:57:00] Speaker 1: And it's at the monthly move, too. Like, come on. This is, this is like, if, if the daily was giving you better hints here, like, if, if the daily does set up better hints, we'll maybe talk about it further. Uh, but you just wiped it out. So, technically, the daily chart is saying, hey, we just wiped out reversal signals. Right? You see that plainly on your MACD. You can see it from your RSI on this, this point right here. Wiped it out. Some people might say extended. Um, I think it's too, I think you want to see it in the near price, actually, right? We talked about that. I would really like this to maybe come down like this. Maybe even go to that weekly move, get a big reaction. And then go like that again, right? Come back in by the end of the month. Come back in. On the daily timeframe, try to come back in. And then see one confirmation down. It kind of just loops you right back up. And then you head up to a monthly expected move. Maybe it's like two months out, but the weekly would cross with that. So I would like to see a divergence down here like this would be nice. And since the weeklies buy that centerline, that's why I'm saying I would really like to see a daily divergence, like a clear one is very, very wonky on that MACD there. Too wonky to be like, oh yeah, I'm confident, you know? We could see opposite. We could always see this, right? We tag monthly move. We see a big move up. Comes back for a daily pullback. Then we go, kind of go like, eh, eh, eh. You more likely would see that here, though. Yeah, more likely if you're going to squeeze, you're going to squeeze with some bad news or something, some kind of reaction for gold. And this would be a better shape, in my opinion. So still looking for a daily higher low, daily divergence. But paying attention to those things is the right time. [01:58:48] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:58:55] Speaker 2: Okay, that's why they were rushing home. [01:59:09] Speaker 1: Oh. Uh-huh. Oh yeah, we got to take Lily to the doctor. That's right. So we, apparently that's why we were rushing home all of a sudden. So we have a baby doctor appointment. So I have to watch my two-year-old, like, starting right now. Maybe you could hear her a little bit in the background. But I will have to be hopping off right now, you guys. But you got, hopefully from this whole video here, hopefully for this whole video here, you guys have gotten a good perspective of how we can really utilize these weekly moves during this time where we just saw a bigger drop than expected. I really do appreciate it. And Latino, thank you so much for subscribing. I appreciate that as well. Sorry to hop off all of a sudden. They just, I was wondering why they were rushing home. But thank you guys so much. Have a great rest of your day, okay? Right? Trade like water and you'll be just fine. [02:00:00] Speaker 2: Peace out, homies.