About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of bull trap signals confirm. STOCK MARKET LIVE! from Money Making Market, published July 8, 2026. The transcript contains 15,349 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"Thank you. Good morning, folks. We're pretty much getting started right here at the open. Looks like today's going to be pretty simple as this volatility signal did confirm and as the queues do not confirm a signal in here, we'll still have to wait for the morning to see if that's fully going to be"
[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Thank you.
[00:00:30] Speaker 1: Good morning, folks.
[00:00:51] Speaker 2: We're pretty much getting started right here at the open. Looks like today's going to be pretty simple as this volatility signal did confirm and as the queues do not confirm a signal in here, we'll still have to wait for the morning to see if that's fully going to be wiped out or are we going to be able to bounce back. So we will be considering some things in here. But as of right now, the bull trap signals, I think I accidentally put bear trap for a second there, but the bull trap signals have overall confirmed. We see that the daily chart over here is something to watch if that is able to curl up. But we already discussed this about a week ago. We started mentioning that if we see the daily scale for the VIX futures curl up, it will be closer to going into positive territory. It will be kind of putting in a higher low over here. So we'll be considering that in today's price action. But we notice here that the 30 minute is going to be well positive. So it's going to be hard for the market to just shake this off. You are right in those buyers for volatility and we notice that the SPY is already down at the daily expected move. Do we see a second standard deviation? Well, we'll give you the second standard deviation for the SPY right now because you were nice enough to join the live stream and you were nice enough to like this live stream. 738.92. 738.92. So right about in this area here, that would be breaking the low. We would like to see this low broken. We would like to see a retrace kind of move and head down into the weekly expected move. So we'll see if that's able to take place over the next few sessions. So for now, we very simply can be looking at a two hour pullback. That's right. Right now we want to consider that it still can be pullback. The Q's have not wiped out any kind of signal in here as of right now. I would say that the market probably needs to figure this out a little bit quickly here. And this signal needs to confirm or else we are completely leaning towards the bear side. So as of right now, we're looking for this. The Q's are going to be the most important signal in my book. This is the 30 minute being able to confirm over here above this nine coming down across. Can we get a green bar like this? If we do, we can extend up to the daily expected move. From that area, we are looking if we are going to roll and fail the divergences, fail the divergences, right? Or are the divergences going to get it right? And we are going to see this get back into a positive trend. And we're going to start to trend up into the end of July or at least into VIXPiration. So this is going to be the critical signal of the day. Right here and there is going to be the Q's on the 30 minute chart early on this morning.
[00:03:51] Speaker 1: How are you guys doing this morning? Good morning. Thanks for coming in and saying good morning in the chat. Good vibes. Get the coffee going. I think I'm going to steal. I think my, I made a coffee for my wife.
[00:04:05] Speaker 2: I don't think she drank it actually. I think she left with the girls when she drank like a little bit. I'm going to steal it. I'm going to be a little coffee goblin.
[00:04:13] Speaker 3: Hehehehe.
[00:04:21] Speaker 2: Ah, it's like I have a whole new coffee. It's great. Yeah, I think this is the main signal to watch here, right? As of right now, we have confirmed that volatility is on the uptrend. We definitely see that. We definitely see this from the 30 minute here for volatility. So the SPY is really like, hey, I'm at that daily expected move. So if we consider the daily expected moves, we would say, hey, for the rest of the day, this is kind of a take profit. I think I saw someone saying, hey, I might already take profit. I'm like, oh, okay. Well, that makes sense because you're at a take profit level. If you're low to expiration, definitely a take profit kind of level because all that has to happen here is the two hour charts able to curl up at any point, right? I don't really like rejections as my higher lows for the two hour charts. So I really pay attention to the actual flow of the MACD here. Make sure that we are going, even if we do something like this, if we're able to curl back up, we will look for failure over here because of structure, right? But at the same time, if we see no failure, then we just ride that thing all the way up to that weekly expected move. So looking for the two hours to confirm to the upside. And that's why I think the cues are such a good signal to watch because the cues are hanging by a thread. If they break through these levels, you pretty much shoot down to that weekly expected move. I mean, you can kind of see what's going on in here. We don't really like to see that. So if this wants to go wrong, we need to confirm this 30 minute up like now, like this morning. I am still kind of leaning towards it going wrong. I don't know why. I really am still leaning towards like a little daily move like this. But at the same time, I definitely can see, I can definitely see how this thing wants to try to roll. Or like we get some kind of two hour move like this, like we just two hour barely bounce,
[00:06:22] Speaker 1: kind of like, uh, let me just roll that over here.
[00:06:32] Speaker 2: Man, cause I guess technically if we were marking up what we marked up last time, creating it right outside of it.
[00:06:42] Speaker 1: So 30 minute signals, the one to watch. That's for sure. Second standard deviations.
[00:06:54] Speaker 2: Uh, if you're still here, uh, is, uh, is the 95% zone. So if you go down to like the spy, if you go down to this daily expected move and pretty much it's like, there's no sign of turning back around in the morning. Well, then you can just extend that. You can just extend down to the second standard deviation, which is about three. What was it? Three or seven 38, like 90 or something like that. And then from that level, it's just a great level to have if you're like, especially if you're low to expiration, because then, you know, like, Hey, 95% of the time you're going to bounce from here or you're going to close above this. So let me take some profit. Yeah. That's what it's good for. Yeah. Second standard deviations. Like if you catch those plays one, the money value is going to be insane. And two, uh, taking profit becomes like just a hip fire, easy decision. Yeah. Anytime there's a dotted line on my screen and you see the price get there. Yeah. It's probably at a decision-making opportunity. And by probably, I mean 99% sure that's going to be a profit taking or a, you know, take my foot off the gas opportunity. The thing that's worrisome here is yes, the cues do have this signal and it is still intact and we're creating a little 15 or something like that right here. It's probably a triple at this point. We'll see. I guess we're not loading again, but if you create another divergence, but well, this technically won't be a divergence point because of the closure of the bar.
[00:08:33] Speaker 1: Hello?
[00:08:37] Speaker 2: It's like, you never look at 15 minutes. Watch. I'm going to click to a 30. It's going to load. Yeah. And I tried to show if there's triple divergence. So you could kind of see it here. This is why I was looking. You can kind of see this where it crossed through and then came back. Still holding the original divergence point. That's why I suggested like, hey, on the 15, you're probably stacking up right towards that center line. So we'll see what can be unleashed here. If the unleashing is bam and we end up at the other second standard deviation or we kind of trail up to here and you see that extend through tomorrow and then we like pull back and then we get here by Friday, by Friday close. That would be the easiest and simplest way to head up right here. And then if you're really short timeframes while you have the divergence play from here to this high, you could say, okay, profit, curls down, re-entry, weekly expected move, maybe a daily expected move Friday, right? Maybe you have a daily move that's like, if you do this into this, you have a daily move on Friday that's like here and you kind of do this, bam, by the end of the day, you just go, okay, take profit in that area. Pretty simple. The worrisome thing is you don't get this. If you don't get this, then none of that happens. If you get this and it rolls down, that's where it's kind of more worrisome to do stuff to get break down to that monthly expected move. We got to find out. IWM, if you want to see that real quickly. This needs to figure it out in the morning as well.
[00:10:16] Speaker 1: This needs to figure it out right away, pretty much.
[00:10:28] Speaker 3: Oh, one sec, guys. Okay, there we go.
[00:10:39] Speaker 2: So this right here is why it needs to be figured out right away. Now, I'm kind of leaning towards IWM just rolling here. I really am. This is finally going negative. We rejected for the lower high over here. I don't really like rejection lower highs. I'd rather look at that like from a 30-minute roll perspective. 30-minute roll perspective. You're like, okay, this was the early closure. This was my confirmation. Here's my little counter move. Hey, it's right into the bulk of those sellers. And we roll to the downside. Pretty simple here. What you needed to happen for IWM is something like this right here. You needed to cross through and be able to break through those sellers. You needed to cross up this MACD right over here. If you would have done that, we would be talking differently about it. But this move causes us to start to look downward even more. Why? Because, and I'm sure that's the question, why? Well, one, if the 30-minute curls up, we'll still consider like, you know, potential divergences and stuff like that. But I still want to take it with a grain of salt because it's not really the best reasons, right? We have a just straight downward move as of right now. We'll see if that changes in the next 20 minutes. But as of right now, you are completely wiping out any kind of divergence point here, which just tells me, hey, the two-hour confirmed a reversal signal and rejected on the lower high, which tells me, oh, the daily confirmed its reversal signal. And there's triple and quadruple divergence. It tells me that IWM wants a weekly pullback. IWM wants a weekly pullback. And if we're going to follow IWM, then it's very likely that the VIX, I'm talking about for the SPY right now, if the SPY is going to follow IWM, then it's very likely that the VIX just sits here today. Sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, and then curls up going into tomorrow. And as of right now, if you look at VIX individually, you would have to say that that seems to be the most probable thing. I have not seen a lower high. I have seen a move above the five-day, and the 30-minute is extremely positive. So if we come down into here and we curl to the upside, that means more volatility. That means more selling. So, VIX will need to get crushed here. VIX needs to get crushed, which means the Qs need to confirm the signal. And yes, I know that it relates directly to the SPY, but the Qs, if they're able to confirm this, then the SPY will be able to climb to the upside. Take a look at SMH. Let's go look at SMH. I am down like a clown from... Wait a second. Where is SMH? There it is. SMH. We just had these put on, guys. Let me make sure the levels are correct, because it is a new one. Give me some time here. 640, 33, 544, 25. You guys, I'm going to show this off, because these are the levels that you get over on Patreon for the individual stocks. You notice that without these lines, we really would just be kind of blindly looking at this, but these lines can tell us a lot. They can tell us that the SMH, or the semiconductors here, are down at or towards the monthly expected move. Considering they are down towards the monthly expected move, we would say that a tag of that level is very, very probable. Now, if we pay attention to what would happen next, as far as structure goes, we see this left over here, we see the previous low. That obviously is a very important level, these two levels being very important, and we see that we are able to make a high, make a lower high, and go negative. If we are going to set up any kind of reversal signal over here, maybe it looks something like a 30-minute divergence, because that would allow us to break this low. If we are able to break said low and curl to the downside for some kind of counter move, we would look for a roll on the right side of your screen here with the left head and right shoulder. So we will be considering any kind of two-hour divergence down at these levels, but we will be considering that we maybe shouldn't expect that move to be absolutely fantastic. Now, let's look at the daily chart to see if that's disagreeing. As of right now, it is not disagreeing. This does not look pretty for SMH. We have mentioned this plenty of times that you have strict triple divergence here, triple divergence across for your MACD and RSI at the same time. This means that SMH is leaning towards some kind of weekly correction, weekly pullback. Now, if we break that low and we get some kind of counter move for a moment, and then we are able to roll, we need enough time to actually go negative here first. So I would like to go negative into options expiration or VIX-piration. I would really like to go negative into like VIX-piration, which actually happens to be right here, the 22nd, the Wednesday, the 22nd. If we're able to do something like that and get some kind of counter trend move, that would be fantastic. We come down for most of the month. We come down, we come down, then we start to curl around that VIX-piration. Then we set up the lower high later on. So that's what I would see as far as if we are heading down. If we are going to head to the upside, then we need to figure it out right here. And really likely, you would not like to break this low. You would like to remain in this area, set up reversal signals, and then curl up the daily before we drop into negative territory. So that means that very likely you have today, you have tomorrow, and you have the next day. You have a week here. I would say two to five sessions before you really see. You need to turn up fast. You need to turn up late this week, early next week, in my opinion. And I don't think you want to break this low. It just opens doors. This is very nice, though. So if we're able to see some kind of build back, let's see the two-hour chart. See how it's negative? That's just a problem. Do we have the 30-minute saying, like, hey, we could bounce, though? We do. We have the 30-minute with divergences here, just like the Qs. We have the 30-minute with divergences here, close to the monthly expected move. That means that since this is confirming, and I notice my little lines aren't popping up here.
[00:16:57] Speaker 1: Hold on.
[00:17:01] Speaker 3: I want to turn off a couple of them.
[00:17:10] Speaker 2: Okay, now you notice that the divergences on the MACDNR side at the same time. It's by the monthly expected move. So right away, we have a pretty interesting setup here. We have an interesting setup that says we could get a two-hour move. And, well, the weekly expected move suggests 640, 33 is still on the table. So if the two hour is able to curl up and get to this level, that would be a great thing. And actually, this would be better to do right now than later. This would give you the encouragement to make the higher low. If you drop too far, though, and you come down into here first, like we were discussing, then you're able to bounce. That would add up to more downside, right? So more downside would be something to consider. Now, this would be on the two-hour chart compared to just a moment ago doing it on the daily chart. But as of right now, you have 30-minute divergence. So does that two-hour climb up to the weekly expected move? Does it climb up to here and fall short? That's going to be the question. Does it rotate down into negative territory to suggest we're going to at least go tag these type of levels? Or is it able to squeeze out of these conditions? So that's where SMH is at as of right now. But it is confirming a 30-minute. That's a trade. That is a trade signal. If you like divergence plays, that is a trade signal.
[00:18:32] Speaker 1: Well, I dig it, but let me see here. How do you feel about the QQQs right now?
[00:18:52] Speaker 2: I'm feeling very... I mean, that's what these moments are for, right? Very back and forth. Because this signal is very, very good for the QQs to have right at this exact moment. If the QQs would have wiped this signal out this morning, we would almost have no argument, right? If the QQs would have looked like IWM and came down much deeper here, and if IWM can figure it out, it can figure it out. Let's see if it's able to hold it, right? It's coming back. It is creating that divergence on the RSI right now. So, like, but if you would drop and you would get a closing bar that wipes out the divergence, we really would not have much to talk about. We would have to see just a move out of nowhere with zero signals, which just means maybe there's not, because I use technicals for confirmations, maybe there's just not a trade setup with it anymore. The Qs here have a trade setup, and that trade is very simple. The 30-minute crosses up, the 30-minute takes out this high, the two-hour starts to climb all the way up to the weekly expected move. I don't know, Rufus. I try to stay away from that stuff as much as possible, and, like, not even in an effective trade way, more like a piece of life. It's kind of like we explained. Like, I actually watched a very—I like psychology. Everyone, I hope a lot of you guys probably know that by now. I got told I should be a psychologist, which is pretty cool. I guess I think that's cool that someone can point that out. But I really like that type of stuff. And some of the stuff that I was looking at the other day, just for fun, was, like, the Truman Show stuff. And I just thought it was super interesting because it's in relation to, like, markets and stuff like that. You know, people talk to me all the time about market manipulation and things like that, and I'm just like—I'm just like, it's hard to explain it. Like, when people are like, hey, why is this stock market move happening? Why is the SPY crashing by 3%? And I'm like, well, if you wait for the explanation of why a move happened, then how do you know you're not being fed a lie? You know, that's kind of what I think about it. So I just treat every move like it's just money moving. Money's going up. Money is going down. I don't really try to put reasons behind things because then I might start to look for reasons for certain things happening in the future and think I know the future. Whereas if I think I know the future, but a two-hour chart doesn't confirm to the upside, then obviously I'm getting the future wrong. That's overall what I like there. I'm in everything, I guess.
[00:22:02] Speaker 1: So I like the cues like this.
[00:22:04] Speaker 2: I do. At least you have—like, that's the thing. So what do I think of the cues, really? I like the fact that we at least have something to react to, right? This is much better than seeing no signals here whatsoever. This is much better, right? If we were just sitting here and the cues were down here, well, it would be a lot different. If we were closing the first 30-minute bar, you know, down at these levels, yeah, we'd be talking mostly about downside, downside, but at the same time, we have to be like, okay, but what if we just make reversal signals right here by that monthly expected move? So when you don't have anything to go off of, it's more like you're just sitting there being patient, waiting to have something to go off of, which is, for my ADHD brain, sometimes very boring. Yeah. I don't know why, but I read that. J-Lo, I randomly looked up, and I saw where you said, well, hello there. And I thought of that, like, hello there.
[00:23:14] Speaker 3: J-Lo.
[00:23:16] Speaker 1: I love that grandpa's just the grandpa of our stream. He's all of our grandpa, you know?
[00:23:29] Speaker 2: But it kind of, is it kind of like cold-blooded that, I think my wife, Gretchen Wieners, my daughter, yesterday, I think we were like eating a snack or something, and she like pulled it up, and she was like, oh, here you go. And she gave me some, and then she took some, and then my daughter was like, hey, can I have some of that? And my wife's like, none for Gretchen Wieners. I feel like that, I'm sorry, that's just a moment from yesterday that cracked me up.
[00:24:05] Speaker 1: My daughter is getting married. Oh, congratulations. That's what's up.
[00:24:09] Speaker 2: That's awesome. That's awesome. Now, you know, we like psychology here, so how much they spend on the wedding, you know,
[00:24:17] Speaker 1: how, we can, we can tell a lot from that. Now, I'm just like. Think like, I used to do a study on people at bars.
[00:24:35] Speaker 2: It's the, it's the draw a house study. So you have someone draw a house, and then you can like, pull apart a lot about them from what they drew on the house and stuff like that. So like, it's very, very cool. So like, someone will draw a house with a window and a door, and they'll draw themselves, say, inside the house. And then you, it's pretty cool. And then, and then you'll, so then you just ask them questions. You say like, oh, so, well, I noticed here that you didn't draw a doorknob. So why didn't you draw a doorknob? And then they'll answer the question or something like that. They'll be like, I don't really know. And then you'll go, okay. And then you go, okay. But also, I noticed that you drew, is that yourself in the house? And they're like, yeah, I drew myself in the house. And oh, and you're looking out the window and stuff like that. Like, you just kind of see what, why they drew certain things. And then you would start to break it down and be like, well, I believe that you're probably kind of like a, like a introverted person a little bit, because what you like to do is it seems you like to watch other people through your windows and things like that, and maybe see who's knocking on your door, but you don't actually want to let them in. So you probably don't let people in easily. You have to trust them before you and really get to know them before you're friends with them. And then you'll see people's minds just like, you'll see people be like, whoa, pretty cool.
[00:26:05] Speaker 1: I used to know exactly how to do it too. Like there's like 10 things you look for. We just had her wedding at Red Rocks. Hey, that's so awesome. Heck yeah. What up, Jagger? How are you doing?
[00:26:24] Speaker 2: Well, tell her what's up. I don't, I don't know what that study, what that's called, what exercise that's called, Steve, but I bet you she knows it. It's, I think it's called, it's just like the draw that draw house exercise or something like that.
[00:26:37] Speaker 1: I don't know. It's very simple sounding. What happened? I'm thinking about retiring from Trey.
[00:26:46] Speaker 2: I'm slowing down mentally. Oh yeah. Spread it. Or just, uh, yeah. And, uh, you know, that could just mean spreading out the timeframes, like genuinely, genuinely spreading out the timeframes, being like, oh, okay, this is risky right now. Let me wait. Spreading out the timeframes, looking for the weekly opportunities is always good. Like if you really want to spread stuff, you really want to be safe, make good money. And just like, if you can coast, right, you've hit a lot of your goals for where you're at in life. You can literally just look for weekly curl ups. You can use your daily skills over here, over here. I don't think your daily skills really helped you much down here because I don't believe we ever got like a daily pullback from this level. Um, this wasn't, uh, no, this was an annual expected move. This was monthly expected move. Yeah. This was, uh, right here, I believe, or right down here. There was a monthly expected move. So if you, if you have monthly expected move, you have a good idea. Oh, the weeklies by the center line. We're at the monthly expected move. Maybe if I see a two hour higher low, I'm going to take a chance on this. Bam to the upside. You were a part of the whole run. You can really spread things out that way. And then you could open yourself up to like, shoot, like three to six month options. Like imagine the cues curl up on the weekly scale like this and go, okay, we're curling up right here. And you go, well, that's, and you like did your homework in here. So you're at a good level. Maybe you're at like five, we'll say 595, like right in the good buyers. And then you see that curl up and you go, okay, well, my ultimate target is going to be the annual expected move because it's a three to six month play. And then you go, okay, we're climbing, climbing. If you're really risky, you could probably do two months. And then you go, okay, we're climbing, climbing. I don't see anything worrisome all the way to here. You literally don't see anything worrisome all the way to here. And now you start to see, oh, we extended that a little bit. We got there. You saw nothing to worry about in here on the daily scale. Nothing, literally nothing. And then this moment right here, this moment right here might be a good enough reason. And then you could just try to hold those runners for the rest. But yeah, opening up the timeframes, big fan, big fan, big fan of opening up the timeframes. So make it match your, uh, your life there.
[00:29:07] Speaker 1: Right, grandpa, make it match the lifestyle. House tree per, yeah, you're right, you're right. House tree person test. That's right. Then like, you'll, you'll like house tree person, and they'll randomly draw like, they'll draw their dog or something like that.
[00:29:33] Speaker 2: Or it's like the sizing of things. So they drew, maybe they drew their house really, really big. But their door is very, very small. So it's like, yeah, I do make a lot of friends, but it takes me time to accept them. But once we're friends, I have a lot of them. You know, there's little stuff like that, too. Hey, the windows, the windows really big. You like people to see inside your home and things like that, like your life. You let people see at least. 1948 by psychologist John Buck. The core idea behind it and projective tests in general is that when you are asked to draw something ambiguous without specific instruction, you will unconsciously project your inner thoughts, conflicts, and personality traits onto the paper. It is true. I've done it to people at bars. It was a lot of fun. I had a month where I just like did it. Every single time I went out, I was just, I'd have like three beers and be like, all right, come here, draw this picture. I used to, I'm glad I'm not like drinking anymore, man. Let's go look at a couple of interesting ones. What's Apple up to at that monthly expected move? Did it get there? Yeah, it got there. Oh, wow. That thing is insane. This is nuts. I don't think this daily is done. I don't think so. I think you wiped out the sellers with great buyers. I think here is just like continuation all day. Now, 30 minute doesn't have to continue. You know, when you see these parabolic type moves because of real news, which this one actually was kind of like news push this this time. There's no, notice there's no real signal. The two hour chart here would be probably the best opportunity, right? You come down into here, anywhere in here, anywhere down into here. You come down into here, curl back to the upside, and then it takes you a couple of weeks. But by like OPEX or VIXPiration, you're up towards those 320s or something like that. That would be best case. Then you kind of know the risky thing. You're like, hey, if I start to see lower highs on the two hour or the dailies able to cross, then that's a little risky, right? If the daily drops down through here, you're a little bit more worried. You're not necessarily looking for that upside, but right now it'd just be like two hour pullbacks into here. That'd be nice. Tesla, I really don't want that daily scale to turn down. I really don't. I still want that two hour to be able to confirm up. Let's hope this is like some form of consolidation for a breakout. You keep dropping here. You're really putting yourself at risk. I don't think I did the Amazon moves. Yeah, we talked about TLT very likely to get down to these type of levels, breaking the low. So now you can see counter moves. That being said, do you need to like, do you need to set up reversal signals for those counter moves? Is this a daily move over here? Probably not. So overall, you could just make a two hour move to the upside and fail. You could just reject into here. And you'd pretty much say you have structure. You could get a daily move over there too. So I would watch for this. Anything down like this, below this yellow line, you can get a counter trend daily move over here for like a big right shoulder. It could be a rejection right shoulder. But that being said, two hour divergence below. We look for that every time. Anytime you're below those yellow lines, you look for any kind of reversal signal. You don't have them at all right now. I would not say you have strong reversal signals here at all. You have a strong momentum to the downside. Even with like, you know, I know people might look at this. I just, I don't trust that for a second. I still don't trust this divergence. Because like, absolute best case, this thing just squeezes through with not very good signals. And very likely it will like, two hour pullback. And then this will be a much easier, safer decision later. Because the real risk here is, you just get some kind of random two hour bounce. And then you just roll that. And we'll look for those reversal signals. But very interesting.
[00:34:06] Speaker 1: See, I don't think I updated for NVIDIA either. Let's go back over to these.
[00:34:15] Speaker 3: You're funny to use.
[00:34:19] Speaker 2: I'm just weird. I'm weird. I used to be the type of dude that like, you couldn't make feel awkward. So I just, I would talk to everyone. I still talk to everyone. We can check natural gas. You like the features here? Well, that means we'll blow it up to a daily first. Actually, let's go daily first. Actually, weekly first. Okay, we're looking for weekly rejection. Yeah. So right now, you're currently downtrend, downtrend, downtrend. Very good weekly divergence right there. Very crazy. Very high up. Potentially not even, barely not even divergence. But either way, breakthrough. You broke this. And you broke this. So if you're, while you're in negative territory, you always want to watch for like, hey, does it continue to roll? I think the opportunity would more so be like, if you make a divergence here, or if you see a squeeze out of these conditions and then come back later, that'd be better. That'll take a lot of time though. So the daily chart, if this is just able to get a solid breakout here, breakthrough. I mean, you see, it's pretty, hold on.
[00:35:31] Speaker 3: I think it's pretty obvious. And I go like there.
[00:35:50] Speaker 1: You can cleanly break through and hold this.
[00:35:53] Speaker 2: So you need to kind of like see a closure like this. And then you would like to extend because if you do this and then you immediately try to retest here, you're very likely to break it. But if you can do this and extend, that would be good. So the next trade is really just swing trade on the daily. Compile up, compile up, compile up, move sideways, sideways, sideways. This is a pullback with time to get out of those conditions. We don't really have reversal signals or anything. So this can still climb. But you would always just be aware that if you can't break through this line, then you're, you're, if you don't curl this up, then there's no opportunity for upside. So curl this up, extend, then come retest it later would be best case. Oof, yeah, still though, the divergences and stuff that can happen over here, just be aware of that. Just be aware of the weekly chart. It's still in negative territory. It did break some serious levels there. I'm not saying it has to be like over for natural gas. But if you really look back at some great opportunities, they are, you know, based on those higher lows and divergence type plays. And you notice here, it's like higher low. Oh, okay, cool. Boom, positive. Oh, okay, RSI divergence. Flat rejection divergence right here. Okay, we're going to pull back. We get this, uh, uh, uh, head and shoulders right here. Left head, right shoulder. We pull down into here. What happens? We curl up while we're still in that awkward area by the center line. So still potential opportunity. Oh, we confirm here. Nice. We ride that up to here. Oh, what do we see? Divergence. Divergence. We get the heck out. Let me see it confirm down. You confirm here. Now, the difference is where were we last time? Where are we now? We can't do the same thing because we're much deeper. Instead, the last time we were at towards these levels was right about here. And we waited for a higher low. Now, some people might have taken the weekly divergence like investing wise. They might have taken the divergence down here and then rebuy over here.
[00:38:07] Speaker 1: First buy, second buy, sell, one buy.
[00:38:16] Speaker 2: So, very likely you would want monthly expecting moves, weekly expecting moves for this sell over here. But right now, you're kind of like, I need to see this. I need to see this. Just like you did right here. Oh, hello, birdie. There's a birdie outside. Hello, birdie. I like my new office. I got to sit here and see some birds. See some birds. I like them birds. Some good birds.
[00:38:46] Speaker 1: Cues are the important one. We'll keep an eye here. Oh, well.
[00:39:03] Speaker 2: There's so many tickers, man. Toll brothers. Ooh. Ooh. I hate that. I hate this for you right now. I'm not going to lie. I don't like that sell. Daily looks okay, though. Daily can save you. Daily can save you. And you just crossed through. So, okay. Never mind. I'm wrong. I was wrong for a moment there. My bad. I talked very negatively about it. And I just think this is a lot of selling coming in pretty fast. So, I got to consider that. Because, yes, this does look pretty good. Right. We had a divergence. Bam. It went positive for a moment. So, it's kind of a grain of salt. A grain of salt when you're going to take it with a grain of salt. But you do still have it if you have the balls to take it. And then, get off.
[00:40:02] Speaker 3: What the heck? Okay.
[00:40:07] Speaker 2: So, daily scale here can still be decent. I would make one very good distinction here and say we probably don't want to lose everything that got this move to happen. I probably would say that if you start to dabble with these type of levels, that's just going to be too far. I would rather not even get closed here. I'd rather be sitting right about here. I really would like to just sit here now. Because if you look at the 2R chart, it's going to be so negative. Like, look at this. That's not good. So, you want it to stop as soon as possible. So, as of right now, you're just seeing negativity, which means rolling is on the table. You just broke through. You broke through the critical level on the 2-hour. You broke through the 5-day. That's going to come down. And then, eventually, you're going to get a reaction up that's going to try to take it back and probably roll. Because you're going extremely negative. So, until I see that this can carve out a pure and simple higher low. Which, in this case, I am leaning towards divergence. And then, you would look for it to come probably down into that area there. But, that's just because the daily chart looks good. If it starts to curl on the weekly, this looks awful. That was why I spoke negatively about it initially. I will tell you the awful thing. This weekly chart curls down. It looks really bad. You would need that to be violated very quickly. So, you're looking for the daily to be able to curl up before it drops too far down. Oh, you're short on it? Then, you're happy. I wish I had a weekly move for you, bud. But, yeah. If you're short on it, then you're pretty happy right now. I would think, like, let's look at 30 minutes then. I would say that this, you know, this is probably, like, if you were short up in these type of areas, the rejection, that would be very nice. That'd be pretty, that'd be pretty ballsy. But, but pretty nice, because the buyers here were so good that taking a short over here is kind of wild. Um, but if you're at a good price, this is just a solid move overall. This, this type of move right here would be like, hey, I'm going to start thinking about how many runners I want to keep, but I'm taking some profit. But that's me.
[00:42:31] Speaker 3: That's me. That's me.
[00:42:41] Speaker 1: Hey, guys, give me one second. I'll be right back. Two seconds here. All right. Sorry about that, guys. We are back.
[00:43:36] Speaker 2: Man, it feels like we're chilling in the chat today. I'm cool with it, man. Done with day trading. Too much panic. That's right, Grandpa. Me and you. It's just me and you, too. Me and you, brother. We're the same. It's too much stress. Now, some people, you know, if I couldn't, if I had, like, even less time, I think it would actually help me. Like, right? Just, like, take a trade, maybe, like, in the evening, sell it in the morning, or take a trade in the morning, sell it at the end of the day. It'd just be like, you know, do it that kind of way. But, um, or take one trade in the morning for, like, a couple hours.
[00:44:16] Speaker 1: Like, that would make sense for mine. But it's just, I think it's the, it's the having too much time.
[00:44:27] Speaker 2: Even if you have a little time, it still can be too much, I guess. I don't like to sit and stare at stuff. That's why you'll notice with, like, Patreon posts, like the Patreon posts we put out yesterday. It's, it's kind of like, they're usually at, like, okay, hey, I'm looking at things, you know, after lunch. Like, when things start moving again. There's kind of usually a little lunch lull.
[00:44:53] Speaker 1: So I focus on the morning, and then I focus on the last, like, couple hours.
[00:45:02] Speaker 2: Which is great, because if we ever have a speaker on, like, Monday through Wednesday, I can always ask the wifey if we can hop on the live show for a bit. Let's go check out VIX here. Yeah, VIX curls up. This is, this is rough. Now, you want this to create a reversal signal fast. Yeah, you want this to fail. Because that's, yeah, that daily curls up. You want this to extend, probably. If you want that sell-off, you want that 30-minute to confirm up right away. You want more selling today.
[00:45:43] Speaker 1: And then you're still not out of the woods, because you literally could do this. So we'll see.
[00:45:51] Speaker 2: Lots of chop this week. Seems like getting, well, yeah, you're going to, so, like, this is what we tried to say to people. Like, one, you're still within the consolidation. You're still within, like, pretty much, you're still within the consolidation. You saw, like, a little tap outside of it. And you see here that you're getting tight. So when you get tight like this, I might even move that up like this, actually. When you get kind of tight like this, it does kind of matter. Because if we pull this over to where I have Bollinger Bands, you're going to kind of, like, notice, maybe even on the daily. Yeah, the daily's starting to kind of come in here. If we did a couple more, this might even come in even more. I really thought the two hour would be spread out, or it would be a little more spread out than this, but. I guess this was your expansion right here, and then you notice we're tight again. All right, this time we weren't getting very tight, but down here we did. Down here we got relatively tight. And then if you pull that over, you're like, oh, okay, there's your expansion. It's, like, double. And then now you're tighter than you were back there. So you're pretty tight here. That tells us that, hey, we're just sitting in this area. We're looking for, hey, does the two hour curl down? Yes, it did. Okay, it needs to do this. If it goes like this, that's a lot worse, right? We want this. Did it? Friday? Monday. Tuesday. Right? Boom. Friday? Monday. Tuesday. Wednesday. Thursday. Friday. Monday. Tuesday. Right? We want to climb. Bam. Bam. Bam. Bam. Set up reversal signal. Bam. Everyone thinks we're safe. End of July. Crash. Just kidding. Correction. And then the other way is what?
[00:47:59] Speaker 1: The other way is, oh, the summer's done. We're going to correct. I still think that test of like $6.95 looks so nice.
[00:48:13] Speaker 2: But you would always look for continuation first. Most of the time markets go up. You're consolidating after making a daily high in some fashion. So you would overall be like, okay, I am still looking for the upward move first here. And the other thing is, you're two hours in positive territory. So you'd always be like, okay, I'm looking for it to curl up. Maybe after Albex. Well, I think we go up into Vixpiration, Jagger. Here, I'll show you. I think because of the wonkiness of the expirations this month, I think we go up. And I think we, whatever move we decide, pretty much I think you decide by the end of this week. I think you're breaking out somewhere on Monday, if not sooner. But if we pull up the options calendar real quick, we can see here for July that the volatility products don't expire until after options expiration. So that tells us a lot. That tells us that the really volatile moment will probably be after OpEx in some fashion. So it could be a couple days before Vixpiration, right? That Monday, Tuesday. It could be literally on the day or it could be a couple days. So this entire week, you're really looking for some kind of topping signal. Now, when I say topping signal, people are like, oh, it's the stock market crash guy again. No, I'm saying if that topping signal set suggests just a two-hour pullback is coming for Vixpiration, then a two-hour pullback is the most probable. If we have two-hour divergence and daily divergence at the same time, and then you see those things confirm right before Vixpiration, then we're going to probably see some kind of macro top for the time being. Right? That's how I would see it. Just because you're heading into that end of summer, into that August, that softening August, September, that real softening in October in the market, that would be a good available time. If you think about it, this would be a great timing if you kind of went up into end of July, right? Like, say, August, early August, you start to pull down. Then you pull back down into October. It starts, everyone's bleeding, bleeding. Oh, it's terrible. November, you get into the holiday season. That's all it takes, which I guess it would be an upward move first. It would be, like, somewhere up here first, and then you'd come down, and then you head to the upside. And you just go into end of the year, pretty much. You go directly into that yearly expected move. And then we look for the correction, right? We look for another correction later on. We'll look for that probably in March of 2027. We'll look for another daily pullback or weekly pullback. But we have to see how this market shapes up. We haven't even seen a breakout of these levels just yet, so we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. But I do think the Qs on the 30-minute is a very critical signal to hold today. I don't know why I don't have the stream up. There you guys are. Jay, yeah, I do think that the VIX is the only one pulling me by the hairs a little bit. I will put it that way. The VIX is the only thing that's really making me look and go, hmm. Because if I'm suggesting we have time to go up for a couple of weeks, does this have the opportunity to go down for a couple of weeks? Just, I don't think so. So that's the only thing that's perplexing right now. And I probably, you know, I can sit here and try to figure it out, but then I might accidentally have some sort of bias if I sit here and stare at it for too long. I can think a move is going to happen, and it's not. I think in this case with the VIX is a very serious case of just like, hey, you know the risk here. We're at an annual expected move. IWM is confirming reversal signals for a correction here. Just take it as a moment of risk, and we need to squeeze out of these conditions. You need the market to prove itself further, and especially I think you need the VIX to prove itself further. As of right now, the VIX is in a very positive 30-minute trend. So this is not like, hey, we're just shrugging this off. This will be impressive to shrug off that positive move that we just saw. But we ought to be thankful for the 30-minute divergence on the SPY and the VIX. I think sooner than later, but can't you see? Like, we've had a lot of good on the—we've had a lot of positivity during the summer still. Like, overall, yeah, I know we've moved sideways, but we've held levels too. That's a positive thing, right? To hold a level is very, very good. We've held above 700, really. I know we tagged into it over here for the Qs, but I'm talking more about the SPY. The SPY has held 700, what, since April. That's a very, very good thing. The SPY overall has been consolidating at the 750 mark, pretty much. That's pretty good, right? That's really good for a little extent—a 50-point little extension here, like, to get to the annual move makes sense. I think 100%, a 25-point move to get to the monthly expected move easily makes sense. And what we would consider, though, is if we get one more upward move here, you know, how close are we getting to that annual move for the SPY? That's going to be the consideration. Do I think IWM touches 91? Well, you already tagged daily move, 94. 91, I mean, you'd just be like, hey, can the five-minute roll at some point? You have a little five-minute divergences in here. You're probably going to get a five-minute bounce soon. So, really, what you're looking for here is a bounce into, like, into a resistance. Hey, guess what? 295 can still be a resistance now. You just gapped below it. You go right into the bulk of those sellers. You tap into here on the five-minute. You roll. That's where you'd look for a break of the daily move. Then you could potentially hit 291. But we want to watch for any kind of five-minute even divergences here because I think you're very likely to try to attempt some kind of 30-minute move. But I do think that 30-minute move, as we just broke the lows like we were talking about, as you just broke that, I think this 30-minute move is a risky one. You're pretty negative and just pointing straight down. I'm not looking for a bullish trade here. But that's how I would look at the five-minute. I'd be like, we already tagged daily move. If I get a bounce from there and a roll, that's probably the next opportunity in some way if I'm a shorter time frame trader. So as far as it goes, though, I try not to say what I try to say a probable thing. And as far as it goes, Marcus, just so you're aware, you know, this can, it can work out. That's why I discussed how it can work out. But overall, that is a outside of the 68% zone. So usually I would always say, usually I would always, that's funny. Usually I would just be like, hey, I'm going to follow the percentages here. And I'm going to say, hey, you know, that is a lower probable thing, even though we talked about how you could get there. But no, the Q's divergence did not get violated. That's why we're still watching it like a hawk. That's why it's still both ways. But the bear signals confirmed. The bull trap signals for VIX were already confirmed. But then that explosive move just really makes you go, yeah, this is, this is, this is what makes you go like, yeah, obviously this is, this is confirmed. Nice, nice divergence there. Turns up. Two hour, two hours positive now, but the 30 minutes so positive. You do this, you don't make that. You don't do that. Right, we make a quick divergence fall. A quick divergence in fall would make sense, because a quick divergence in fall would mean we come down like this, and then we curl up.
[00:56:49] Speaker 1: Then your 30 minutes is going to be real negative here.
[00:56:52] Speaker 2: That's going to be hard to stomach for a bit. But this has not been violated. That's why we're watching it kind of this morning. I can stay on today. Yeah, Marcus, I hope that's helpful in some fashion. I really do. I really want to speak about these things like I'm willing. You know, when I try to answer a question like that, you know, hey, how likely do you think 291? I try to put myself in your shoes a little bit. I try to put myself in the shoes of like, hey, if I'm looking at taking a trade in some fashion. So I hope that that type of language is helpful. Hit the divergence for good. I don't think we see it too close to midterms. What's going on with Tesla? Well, I think Tesla is the rough one right now. But the 30-minute curls up, you're fine. I think the 30-minute curls up, you're okay. Two-hour needs to obviously curl up, though. You're looking for the two-hour high or low. And you have great... I mean, this isn't bad. If you can hold here, you just need to actually confirm this. This is a rejection, that's not good. But you did cross through all of this, so that's great. Left head, right shoulder, you start to head to the upside. Daily chart curls up. Hey, if this comes down, I just know that that's immediately risky. But if the two-hour can confirm, this can finally go positive and we can start to climb. So if you're in the boat of like, hey, we're going to crash down immediately, we're going down for July, Tesla would have to argue that with the daily confirmation to the downside, which means this can't turn up.
[00:58:24] Speaker 1: So when you're looking at two-hour high or low, you know, like keeping it pretty simple there, two-hour high or low.
[00:58:39] Speaker 3: It's...
[00:58:54] Speaker 1: My wife hasn't decided yet, she might do a show on like, whatnot or eBay or something
[00:59:01] Speaker 2: to try to sell some biters or something like that. So if you guys want, there's a link down in the description to join whatnot to get some free money. Be careful with it. I always try to just use free money on platforms like that. Those things can draw you in.
[00:59:20] Speaker 1: Might as well just get her some merch for her table or whatever. So I'm joining a bunch of giveaways. I think you get like at least 10 bucks for free.
[00:59:36] Speaker 2: Let's see. Key is still holding, still holding. We're just going to hold all morning, aren't we? And then we're going to do something either right before or right after... Is it right before lunch? Well, you look at the 30s. So 9.30, we could see something. Look at the 30s. So here in three minutes, we'll see if we're getting any kind of move. If you don't really get a move now, then you'd probably look for 10.30. If you don't see it at 10.30, then you'll probably wait until... What is that? Is the FOMC minutes around 1? Is that today? Yeah, 1. So you're looking for the 1, 1.30 mark. But you're getting a bunch of data on oil right now and gas. At 9.30, so in three minutes. I know we're probably different time zones. FOMC at 1. So if you don't see anything by 10.30, then very likely that it's just going to move with FOMC minutes. Will the SPI move up today? And if we get this confirmation for the Qs, then you can say that with your chest a little bit harder. But if you don't see this upward move here for the Qs on the 30 minute, then there's pretty much no shot. If you wipe this out on the Qs, then yeah, you can get a bounce. But that bounce is probably going to be for a roll. Just depends if we wipe it out or not. If we go down to daily expected move for the Qs and close down there a few times, then you're probably wiping it out. That's all it'll take. Like the VIX itself is bullish or the VIX makes the market look bullish. VIX is in a serious positive trend, my dude. That's why I'm like, you want the quick divergence. You want a quick failure here. Because right now, this is not saying that the selling is stopping. That's why I'm like going back and forth between the Qs signal and the VIX on the 30 minute. Because that kind of like, they're kind of contradicting. Right, the VIX is like, we're going to see more selling. The Qs are like, hold up, we have a divergence, you know. So who's going to be right? Put your vote in the chat. Who do you think will be right? VIX or the Qs? V or Q? V or Q? Who do you think? Who do you think gets this one right? Which way? Because based on which one you think is going to get it right, there's a lot of what tells us what you think about the next move. A V or a Q. Who gets the signal right? You think Qs? You want VIX? You want V? You want V? I think you have to consider VIX with how IWM looks right now. Unless we just see that quick rotation type play for one more move for the spot in the Qs. But I'm just saying, I think, I don't have a lot of faith in this signal, but it's still here, the Qs one. I kind of like, I like when volatility just plainly goes into a positive trend. So I'm leaning towards the VIX because of those daily signals, and I can't figure out how the timing would add up to, hey, we can buy three weeks here. I think that's the big deal there, the daily, the macro scale. But if this 30-minute confirms, I'm not going to be buying volatility or anything. I might just dabble with the Qs, trying to hit 736, and then if that fails, hey, I'll get out.
[01:03:29] Speaker 1: Yeah, I hope so, stuff. I hope we get that 85% chance.
[01:03:36] Speaker 2: Like 80, 85, yeah, it's 85. 85% probabilities for up days and down days, they're fun. If you have this 30-minute divergence still intact, and VIX, for whatever reasons, up 10%, then you would say, hey, you have a 30-minute divergence. If that confirms tomorrow, hey, you have an 85% probability for an up day, so you'd have another reason. Typed Q in autocorrected A. I was like, A? A, A. I think VIX probably is up, though, by 10% today, because this is just a positive trend. I don't think the selling's over. It's just, what do the Qs do here? Because this big move from volatility mainly was with the SPY. The Qs didn't see, like, a dramatic drop-off by any means. They just sat here. So we'll see. It does suggest, though, the selling's not done.
[01:04:35] Speaker 1: But we need that to completely be wiped out. No, still waiting.
[01:04:44] Speaker 2: I just said, if this 30-minute signal confirms, then I'll be targeting 736.45. But you might see me say, or say, in a YouTube video or on Patreon or something, that I'm starting to take profit above here. If we do this, if we do this, take, take that into tomorrow. By tomorrow, if we're crossing through this level, I'll probably take a lot off the table. I just don't trust the move much.
[01:05:15] Speaker 1: And that's fine. And that's perfectly fine.
[01:05:19] Speaker 2: Because as long as I catch a little something in here, that'll be a good utility of time. And then if we can cross through all of this, this here is what I'm scared of. Right? That's what I'm scared of for the Qs. Because it got more significant. So if you see here, we didn't even get there. That's kind of my issue. Is we weren't even able to get there. You stopped short. So that's why I just want to be like, okay, I'll take something like here. But I want to see, for me to play up here, I want to see us get through all that, come back. I don't mind. I don't mind taking my profit here and letting everyone think that they're a genius up here. That's perfectly fine with me. I want to see that happen. So 30-minute confirmation here. I have a trade set up. Am I eager to buy volatility right now? Yes. I kind of am. Am I eager to buy volatility right now? Yes. But it's just, I can't buy volatility if I see the signal. If I see the signal confirmed, I literally cannot buy volatility. It's just, it's not going to work out.
[01:06:36] Speaker 1: Down 2% to 3% SPY today? Like, are you talking SPY? 2% to 3%? Kevin?
[01:07:00] Speaker 2: So if SPY, 2% to 3%, that would be complete, that would be a 1% move. That would be a less than 1% move. Pretty sure.
[01:07:10] Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be way less than 1% move. Anything's possible, but it's just, how probable is it?
[01:07:29] Speaker 2: What do I see using my skills behind it? What am I expecting to happen after it? With a, you know, level-headed expectation. Notice that my expectation is not even, really even this, right? That's why I mentioned I'm going to be looking at this. Right? This is my only expectation for this. I don't care if we even roll over there. That's perfectly fine with me. I don't care if we fail that signal at that point. I just want us to see us touch that high. My management will be pretty simple. It'll be, if we roll in here, pretty much on a 15 or a 30 minute before we make that new high. Right? That's a take profit.
[01:08:10] Speaker 1: That's a get out. But I'm not in it yet.
[01:08:17] Speaker 2: Not in it yet. I can't be in it. You know, I can't be in it until I see something fail here, until I see it confirm here. Because now we're seeing that VIX, very probable to make a second move. Remember we just said that? And people in the chat have been saying it. Hey, look at that VIX positive trend. Yeah, you need this to fail. You need this to fail. Because if this doesn't create a divergence, if this doesn't, like, fail right now, get a lower high later. If this instead curls up for the moment, that could squeeze through. Now, we want, you know, if you're wanting to find the bullish trade, which for some reason I think I'm attracted to the bullish play. I think looking at SMH did that to me a little bit. But if we can do this, you're going to close the day up by 10%. Right? You're going to close the day up by 10%. Then, if you confirm divergence over here, oh, then the two hour is likely to cross down. And if that gets crushed, crushed, then you would remake signals over here. Now, my problem with that is, if that happens, let me look at this.
[01:09:29] Speaker 1: I do have a problem with that. Actually, I don't have the biggest problem with that.
[01:09:37] Speaker 2: Get crushed, then turn up. Get crushed, then turn up. Make a divergence down there. That would be, ooh, that would be solid. You'd have to worry about two hour higher lows, though. Damn. Two hour higher lows. Just a positive MACD. Dang, there's so much difference here. It's crazy.
[01:10:03] Speaker 1: It's just so different from the Qs over to the VIX and the SPY. Yeah.
[01:10:17] Speaker 2: That's the overall plan, though. You know, it's not, like, super complex. It's just like, yeah, there are reasons right in front of you with this signal for the Qs. And then you just execute. And if it goes wrong, you know, plays go wrong. That's why you have your plan, to get out.
[01:10:35] Speaker 3: And I'll look at PCC as well. Yeah, we're climbing up.
[01:10:52] Speaker 1: Remember, SPY can do this. Where's second standard D, what did I say for SPY? I might mark that off. Seven, pretty much 7.39.
[01:11:16] Speaker 3: I'm just going to put 7.39.
[01:11:21] Speaker 2: Right there. So, pretty much what volatility is saying can happen, like, this is what we're talking about when we're saying volatility needs to set up reversal signals, is you can come down into here. And then you would look for the roll right here, obviously. Left head, right shoulder. Right, we're looking for that potential roll over here. But because this is positive, this could just be the first real dip to then curl back to the upside and break out. And this is what I'm talking about playing, but for the Qs. All right, so while this is happening, I don't want the Qs to come down into here. I want the Qs to just sit right where it's at, maybe come a little deeper, and then curl to the upside. And I don't think you have much time to go deeper. I don't think you can go much deeper here. If you do this, and you close down in here, you're going to be too deep. That's how I see it. Now, I could be wrong. You could not. You could wick up and things like that. So make sure the closure of the bar is the important part. I just don't want the Qs to drop off much with the very highly probable next drop-off. You're already seeing it for SPY.
[01:12:30] Speaker 1: But yeah, this is your 95% line right here, second standard deviation. Five minutes, still not confirmed. Damn. It's not looking good. We're at the 10%, but you got to watch the... It's got to close that way. VIX has to close that way stuff. But yeah, it's good to be aware of it. Target's taken off. Ooh, baby. I just kind of try not to look at it very often.
[01:13:09] Speaker 2: Oh, yeah. I haven't reapplied stuff here, though.
[01:13:15] Speaker 1: Some, but definitely low, low, low.
[01:13:24] Speaker 3: Eh, no, let's just do daily. Daily.
[01:13:32] Speaker 1: I really, really would like this to weekly pullback now, though. Maybe even do this, then weekly pullback. If we weekly pullback now, I still would like it for trying to cross through.
[01:13:52] Speaker 2: That's when I would reapply. The next weekly dip is pretty much where I reapply. That was just solid. Not the perfect sell, but very, very good. There's just so much wiggle room on that one. So much wiggle room. That was not an option, guys. That was not an option. Don't think I'm like rich as heck now. That is not an option from one box to the other. That was simply just a buy at good signals, buy at good signals. Oh, we failed them once, but don't sell anything. Buy again.
[01:14:24] Speaker 1: That's all it was. That was more the, we talked about it on Patreon.
[01:14:33] Speaker 2: We kind of called it the slight, the like midterm investment. Not really using the four hour unless I'm on futures, Kevin.
[01:14:43] Speaker 1: Financials down, like JP? Oof. Oof. That's a bad signal, man.
[01:14:55] Speaker 2: That's lower high signal. That's not good. Oh, okay. It's just, it's saying daily pullback though. But you see what I mean? This is kind of like the spy, right? I mean, not necessarily with this move, but like, hey, show me that you can take out the critical levels one, two, three on the spy. We'll go over it in a second, but then curl down and retest them and then curl to the upside. One, two, three, one, two, three, spy. One, two, three, right? That's what I want. I want you to cross through on the two hour chart. It's just a shorter time frame. Okay. But we got, we got to be watching this though. I'm clicking around too much. You guys, I've got about 17 minutes left, just so you are aware. Stick with us for about 17 minutes. We're going to watch this cue signal. Patreon members, if something does happen here and I have time, we might talk about it this week. So if you want to join Patreon, the link's down in the description as well. There's a couple of links down there if you want to get some free money too. Or at least one. Just one. Yeah. It's like sign up for Patreon for $7 and then do the whatnot thing and you'll get 10 bucks. Hey Chris, welcome, welcome. Be careful on those apps though, guys.
[01:16:23] Speaker 1: I just, I, you know, it'll teach you risk management. Spotify. I don't use Spotify.
[01:16:34] Speaker 2: It's not my favorite. My wife does. I pay for her membership or whatever. She likes Spotify. I'm a YouTube premium guy. I don't really like the YouTube music app too much. I just like to use YouTube.
[01:16:51] Speaker 1: Close the cue puts. I like it, man. I get you doing what's best for you. Saying, hey, I'm not going to, I'm not going to try to go down to that 700.
[01:17:05] Speaker 2: Yeah. They seem like 2% on JP Morgan's pretty wild. 2% is pretty wild. Oh, Shopify. I don't mind Shopify for certain businesses. I actually, when I was more of like a, uh, doing social media, like on the other apps, I think Shopify is pretty solid. Like if you're like an influencer starting to, trying to start your own thing. Uh, the problem I think right now is just people try to sell stuff too fast. Um, I don't think you should be trying to sell stuff too fast. Like that's why I think people are having a hard time becoming an influence. They want to make money really fast. When it's really like, be yourself, have fun with it. And if it works out, you'll make money. I like to use 30 minute. Well, I would say, so regular trading hours are right here. So regular trading hours. Oh, you can't see it, but you can see it at the top there. 30 minutes. See the hover 30 minute. Two hour daily. Weekly. If I'm on futures, like say SPX 500 futures here, then I immediately kind of delete out the 30 minutes. So the 30 minutes not, not really there. And I focus on two hour, four hour and daily charts. So you see how like you can, you can read into the same thing here. We don't want the daily to be crossing down here. You want the four hours to confirm back up, right? You want the four hour to confirm back up. You're still a bull. And how does the four hour confirm up? Well, the two hours got to confirm up. And how does the two hour confirm up here? Well, it's suggesting it's still close enough to the center line. It's still close enough to the center line. But does it really give me confidence? I would have more confidence in a better setup. And I think that better setup is kind of shown to you right here. But it's shown more so. More so in the queues itself. Like when you look at it from the futures, it doesn't really look great. And that's what adds into what? That adds even more credibility to like, hey, I might want to take some off when we cross through that eye.
[01:19:13] Speaker 1: And this isn't even confirmed yet. That adds because all that happens there is like Trump says that this is going to happen.
[01:19:37] Speaker 2: Then the next day, he actually did the opposite last night. It doesn't have everyone expects it to happen. Then it doesn't happen. Right. So even with news, you want to be this guy. Trump said Trump said, hey, markets are going to really sell off tomorrow. Why? Trump said he's going to bomb Iran tonight. Look, the market's selling off now. We'll do the queues. Hey, look, the market's selling off now because Trump's going to do that stuff tonight. Trump's definitely going to do that stuff tonight.
[01:20:12] Speaker 1: Hmm. And then I see this. Like, come, stay in here, stay in here. And then I see that. Trump's going to, Trump's going to, Trump's going to. All right, I'm going to follow this.
[01:20:35] Speaker 2: And that's not hating on you. That's just me explaining how my mentality is towards like, not even news. That's not even news. That's potential news. That's him telling you that something is going to happen. How many times has a politician told you something's going to happen? How many times has it actually happened? At least in the time frame, too, that they suggest, too. That matters, too. They can tell you something's going to happen. But if they tell you, hey, this is going to happen next week,
[01:21:08] Speaker 1: and then it doesn't happen for three months, you're kind of like. We can look at Shopify. I don't remember Shopify's ticker, though.
[01:21:27] Speaker 2: Oh, well, that was stupid. I need shop. 30-minute, pretty extended. Two-hour can keep this going. It's just that's a waterfall of selling. So you immediately are like, hey, look for daily pullback potential. Two-hour, that's just flooding. So you want this to stop right where it's at. I think you've got to stop here. I don't think you want to see a two-hour that looks like this. You don't want to see that. You want to see, oh, it's terrible. And then we sit here. I mean, curl to the upside. I think you want to sit and curl to the upside. Sit and curl to the upside. That's just to keep the bullish trend going. That means we could have a lot of time in this area. But this is still a good area. It's just unfortunate because you wiped this out. So now you have to be aware of, hey, we took out the low. We curl up here, here, and over here. So there is definitely a pathway to get some kind of daily move to the downside. And the waterfall of selling here, it's not necessarily a good thing. So I would say two-hour pullback is what I'm immediately looking at. But because of the waterfall of selling that you're seeing right now, very likely you could be looking at a 30-minute roll into a daily pullback very soon. See, this is what you don't want. So you don't want this right now. I don't think you want this right this second. Thank you so much. I'm sorry I can't read your name, but thank you so much for subscribing. Appreciate you being here. And I looked at Chris Barber's name again, and I'm like, kind of need a barber over here.
[01:23:13] Speaker 1: I need a haircut. Oh, it's down in the description. Yeah, it's down in the description if you want to get it.
[01:23:26] Speaker 2: It's on the summer sale or whatever. But if you feel like you need more time, like I don't want you to just jump into things. But if you feel like that's what would really cause you some clarity, that's kind of what it's for. It un-muddies the waters of just like, hey, here's the blatant information. And you will have a different outlook on how markets move. It will change how you see charts like immediately, especially with like understanding the MACD and divergences and why it's important, understanding the ranges and things like that, why it's important. And then risk management is always a good thing. So there's a bunch of good stuff in there. If you want to see the curriculum, there is a video from... It's my pop-up over here. Let me see.
[01:24:09] Speaker 1: There's a video we just did. It's this thumbnail.
[01:24:18] Speaker 2: I believe it's June 29th. If you find this thumbnail right here, I believe this is the one that you can go look at the end of the video and see the entire curriculum. So if you want to see what you're going to learn in the full technical analysis course before you buy it, I would highly encourage you to go find this video on my channel from June 29th. Just go to my channel, click on videos, and then go to the one that has this thumbnail. This is the thumbnail for that video. And at the end of it, you can see the entire curriculum. And it's about... It would probably take like... If you took it straight up, it would probably take like, what, four hours, maybe six. But everything in there is genuinely like stuff that's helped me. And I try not to put things that can muddy those waters. I pretty much try to just tell you guys what I focus on in the best way possible. That's kind of why I'm like... I think I've gotten better at communicating it. That's why you've heard me say over the last few times, like, Hey, I'm thinking about remaking it in some way. Updating it with better language, probably. But for right now, it's done so much good that you would get that for free as well. So even if you take it right now and I re-update the whole thing and update every single video and make a new one because I'm better at explaining it now to people, you would still get that for free. I appreciate you, Chris. I'm sorry. You just have barber in your name. And I literally was at the mall with my daughter and I almost jumped into a quick barber shop there just because it's a mess. It's a mess. Me and my wife, we like to connect over little things like that. Sometimes I think we're old school like that. She likes to cut my hair. She likes to use her hands. Like, obviously, she's a painter. So sometimes she cuts my hair and because I ain't paying 50 bucks for a haircut. The place I used to go to, my barber shop, they started charging 50 bucks, like 40 plus $10 tip. I'm like, ugh. I'm still stingy sometimes with that stuff because I'm a pretty simple dude. Yeah, I almost hopped into there because the last time my wife cut my hair, I think one side she cut shorter than the other. One side has a fade, one doesn't. I think it grew out, though, so it looks fun. After a couple of days, I was like, but even she was like, that was the worst haircut I've ever given.
[01:26:51] Speaker 1: Daily NDX. We can look at this. Maybe not. Maybe not. Oh, gosh.
[01:27:07] Speaker 2: Well, yeah, the dailies crossed down. You've had multiple rejections here. The big deal is, like, do we react right now? That's kind of the thing. It's just, do we see this two-hour curl up right now? That's it. So, yes, these signals look bad. How do they go wrong is what I'm going after. That's all. Because you have in front of you the same thing on the keyers. You have the divergence. So this tells us a lot. This just tells us, hey, we have something to watch for if there's a trap here. If we're going to have, oh, the bull trap signals, all of them are confirmed, but we're not seeing the flood of selling that those traps should entail, then we have to consider, well, there is a reversal signal on the NDX, on the QQQs. There is a reversal signal here. So if it's going to go wrong, then I have to pay attention to this signal. This is how it would go wrong if we didn't have this signal. We would just be talking about some kind of dead cat bounce for, you know, if we didn't have this signal and we wiped it out, we'd be looking at bounces to get to that weekly expected move. But notice we can't do that. I haven't said that once, right? I haven't said that this is the most probable thing. That's never been said because we are holding this signal right here. That's it. Yeah. So that's how it looks like the NDX is pretty much mirroring. It's mirroring very well, which makes sense. Big moves are happening. I think the biggest move is here, just about to come. And then I think you're going to see, I think you're going to see some massive moves towards, I think our August streams are going to be a lot of fun. Let's put it that way. I think our weekly expected moves starting in August, like I'm glad we're going to switch over to the membership one so we can just utilize the weekly expected moves on all those charts and do like full updates at the beginning of like Tuesday's video. Just do full updates looking for opportunities, bro. It's going to I think I think August will be start to open up for a fun time to trade. I don't think right now is the most fun time to trade. I think this signal right here in front of us could be interesting, right? I think this signal makes the potential for some fun trades like now, but we have to confirm it. We have to see a good green on the histogram for the MACD. We have to see us cross through the signal line, you know, there for the RSI. People liked when we added that. That's why we do that. It gives you something to watch for. And then also we cross through and we take back the five date like I'm liking it. Do I trust it? I told you how much I trust it. I trust it to about here. And then I maybe trust my runners to here, but I don't trust it if it rolls, right? That's when I get out. And we haven't even confirmed yet. Not on Patreon. It's going to be on here for it's just to keep it easy. I did. I like to overanalyze before I make some kind of change. Because I've done this before, especially with the YouTube channel with the with even trading strategies and stuff like that. It's like, you know, you take on something and you change things too quick. Like too quick can be a problem. Oh, yeah. Thank you so much for joining today. Oh, yeah. Thanks for seven. I think that more so here, you're just like, okay. I think YouTube is what I analyzed and Patreon is what I analyzed. And I figured out that I think switching platforms back to my marketing, you know, my marketing 10 years or whatever. It's just I know that people on social apps and stuff like that and channels don't really benefit those things either. So if you're over here on your phone and you're on YouTube and I say, hey, go click on this link that takes you to XYZ or takes you off of YouTube and on to, say, like a TikTok or something like that. Well, then YouTube here is not going to like that. They're not going to push that through a lot of the time. And users, as far as users go, users don't like to switch platforms either. The reason you're on YouTube is because you like YouTube for finding this information. So instead, if you delete all this out and you're already on YouTube and I can just have you on YouTube and we're all comfortable with it, we're all comfortable with the chat, we're all comfortable with the scenery here, then it just makes more sense. It's just much more convenient for everyone that way. But at first, I was going to make it on Patreon. But after researching pretty thoroughly as far as like what would be best for you guys and myself, I think the YouTube way is the way to go. Hi, Micah. So the thing is, if we get trolls, that's why I'll probably make it, you know, it won't be like $2 or something. But you got to, if you're doing a live stream for like $5 or something like that, you can still get trolls. We have been very blessed, though. We have been very blessed not to have, we have a lot of people with some good mentality coming in who are new, who have been trading for a while. I like it on the PW for the course. Hold up. Type it again, Steve. Ask it again real quick. I did. I did live in Atlanta. I didn't watch that. I don't have a password. Oh, yeah. I can, I can resend you it. Hold up. Hold up. Hold up. Uh, let me see if I can fix that right now. Damn, you, that was, that was a long time ago. That's crazy. That's awesome. Thanks for joining way back when. Nah. Um, my life was crazy when I decided to start this. Um, let's see here.
[01:33:20] Speaker 1: Users, what's your name real quick? I can probably find you.
[01:33:25] Speaker 3: Steve Flansburg. Let's see if I can find you.
[01:33:38] Speaker 1: Okay. Nice. Yeah, I see it. Two years. Okay. Let me copy this email.
[01:33:45] Speaker 2: You don't want to change the email. Correct?
[01:33:47] Speaker 1: Do you still have access to your global.net email? Never watched the course and I blew up my account.
[01:33:58] Speaker 2: I'm sorry for laughing at that. I'm so sorry for laughing. That was very rude of me. Um, I am sorry about that. Um, I can't guarantee that the course will help you out, but hopefully it helps you in making those better decisions. All right. And you can come back to the live shows, chat with me anytime. Okay. Email's still good. Okay. I'm going to send you an email.
[01:34:19] Speaker 1: I'm going to change your password. I'm going to, I'm going to send you an email. Give me one moment, guys.
[01:34:37] Speaker 2: We got to get, I don't want you not to be able to access it. That's all. That sucks. So I get you on that.
[01:34:44] Speaker 1: I'll be sending you an email from my personal email.
[01:34:57] Speaker 3: I think you can change the password.
[01:35:27] Speaker 1: and just make, try to sign in one time. Okay. So that's what's up, Steve. Oh man. Oh man.
[01:35:43] Speaker 2: Bro, way back when, way back. That was before live video. No. Yeah. Yeah. But that was before live video. I think I only went live like once or twice to test it back then. Because I was back in my hometown with family when I actually did the live show consistently. Started to.
[01:36:06] Speaker 1: That was when I was still working, I think, too. Until YouTube made more sense to stop. Yeah. Big advocate of utilizing your time. You were pregnant.
[01:36:32] Speaker 2: Well, I've had another one since then. I've had two of those. I've had two of those in that time. Both girls, both beautiful. And I love that my youngest daughter, when she smiles real big, she's bald. She's still bald. When she smiles real big, she looks like Squirtle. And I think it's hilarious. I want to just, I just want to, I want to, I want to Tobias Funke her and like paint her blue for Halloween. Hey, Steve, make sure you're able to get into that. Because I got to hop off here like now. So I want to make sure that you can, you can sign in. Or at least make sure you got the email.
[01:37:15] Speaker 1: And that's from me. Should be from Lucas.
[01:37:21] Speaker 2: Yeah. If you ever have trouble, like lose a password or something like that, guys, just try to try to get in contact with me. Okay. Found it. I tried to make a simple password for you, but in case you don't want to change it, I think you can change it, though, if you really want.
[01:37:43] Speaker 3: Sorry.
[01:37:45] Speaker 2: Got it, Breski. Okay, cool. Sweet. Yeah. Give it a look. Come back to the live shows next week and tell me what you think. Okay, Steve? Tell me what you think. Give it a, give it a view over the weekend in your free time, if possible. You don't have to take it all in one sitting. I actually encourage kind of like you take a break and analyze and stuff. But I do have to hop off, guys. So I hope that everything is going well for you, and I hope you guys have a great rest of your day. Oh, hello.
[01:38:14] Speaker 1: Oh, you got your cards?
[01:38:16] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[01:38:21] Speaker 1: Oh, you did?
[01:38:23] Speaker 2: Okay, cool. All right, guys. I'll have to hop off there, but I appreciate you guys joining me for today, and I hope you have a great rest of your day. There's some links down in the description. There's links to just get some free stuff. There are just one link for some free stuff. There's links for the Patreon, and then there's links for the course down in the description that is stirring the 80% off sale. But other than that, guys, I just hope you were able to get something helpful from this video. I hope you're paying attention to the Q signal, and we'll be watching this very, very carefully. Patreon members, have those notifications on just in case we need to update you by the end of the day. All right, guys. Have a good one. Peace out.