STOCK MARKET LIVE IS BACK! BIG TRAP AHEAD!

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Thank you. [00:00:30] Speaker 1: Good morning, Dallas. It is back. I'm just getting by making sure some stuff's together for you guys before we get started. All right. But thanks for being the first one in Dallas. It's nice to see you. And live videos back. I know, right? It's been a while. But it's actually been a while since we've had it consistently. That's the thing, right? Laws. But it's nice to see you, Laws. I missed you, buddy. All right, guys. Give me one second here. Say good mornings in the chat. Make sure to get a sip of your coffee and we'll get started in just a little bit. All right. I can draw up for you guys kind of what we talked about last night with the current signals that we do have so people are aware of what could potentially be taking place. But we will be back in just a moment here. I'm just setting some stuff up. What up, Chris? What up, guys? We'll be right back. [00:01:24] Speaker 2: Focus on the road. Focus on the road, Corey. Be right back. [00:01:54] Speaker ?: Focus on the road, Corey. Be right back. [00:02:24] Speaker 1: All right. All right, guys. We're going to get started here. There are a few things that I kind of was looking at this morning to keep myself aware. And I think we could bring it to your guys' attention. Some of that being for the month ahead, I do like to, especially in that first week and the first few days, I like to look at the expirations. I like to look at Vickspiration and just make sure I have those dates in mind. But also, you know, I just want to let you know we were sick, but I'm feeling 10 times better. So thank you guys for the well wishes. A lot of you guys are always so kind. And thank you to my Patreon members because I accidentally sent out the monthly expected moves, but they were daily expected moves. And like four of you were kind of like, hey, hey, these are really small monthly moves. If they were that small, I'd be freaking out. I probably wouldn't be posting them because I don't know. I'd be like, something's wrong with the market. I did get the correct monthly expected moves for all the stocks that we do cover on this channel. And at times, we really want this to be how the live show will be in the future for Patreon members. So I do have to dedicate a lot of time to this pretty busy life over here. But we will be showing this off for a complete time for free here on YouTube. And maybe we'll keep it free by the end of the month. We'll see how it goes. But for the time being, I really don't like the distractions out there. So we may be putting out another tier on Patreon so we can really focus on the learning part and trading ideas. I think that'd be fantastic. But that means that during this live show, at any point, if you would like to ask for any of the stocks on the right side of your screen, I will flip over. I know my charts happen to be on AMC over here. I was just looking at that move yesterday, and I can't make monthly moves for that. But we do have monthly moves for these stocks. Okay. And I do have them up on my other charts that I normally use on Patreon, but we will be putting out a monthly update. If you ever have questions about a stock and you're like, hey, man, you know, I want to join Patreon, I'm just not willing to just yet or something like that. Or if a Patreon member wants to look over at a monthly expected move to get more information, right, because it does give you more information. Just let me know, guys. Okay, it's going to be very, very chill. All right. Inflation is transitory. Don't, don't even wait, why would you say inflation is transitory? That is so 2022. Come on, man. Okay, so let's bring this to your guys' attention real quick. You guys know that hopefully you want, wait, wait, wait, we got to do something first. Who actually, don't forget, we have PDT rule leaving Thursday, retail volmageddon on Friday. Really? Monthly moves are transitory. Monthly moves are transitory. Okay. Oh, that's fucking funny. Okay. Now, Google is interested. We're going to go through a lot of those today. I think whoever shows up to the live show, I think you deserve, like, you're showing up to the live show, you're spending a lot of your time here, you get to hear me ramble and say random nonsense because I have ADHD sometimes. So make sure to keep me on, on topic. Okay, chat, try to keep me on topic. For the most part, if you guys want to look at some wild stock, I'm going to really try to get away from that. That was a lot of distractions. From the previous live shows when we did live shows every single day, a lot of distractions and stuff. So if you really, really, really, if you can mention it in the chat, right, you can mention it in the chat. But if it's some penny stock or something like that, and or I don't see the message, and you really want to see it, just put it in a donation or something so that I go look at it. I'm going to try to stay away from those kinds of things because they are a distraction. This channel is about learning. And I understand that people want to learn how to analyze maybe smaller stocks and things like that. But I just wanted to point that out. Okay, let me get into the topics for the morning that I was looking at for myself, right? I wanted to look at these. So I wanted to show you guys this. This is a great little tool here. This is from options education.org. It's a very, very good link. If you want the link real quick, it's right here. If you want to even pause screenshot, something like that, just screenshot your phone, screenshot something and type this in later. This is just a great little tool. It just keeps you from confusing yourself. And it's pretty great. Now you can see here that we have some off days this month. So that Friday, we actually have options expiration on a Thursday. I think that's very important to point out. And we also right before that will have on Wednesday, you see here we have the monthly volatility products expiration day and the monthly AM settlement index. But overall, this is what we care about. This is expiration. I don't know if you can see it on the screen. Let me double check here. Yeah, you can see it on the screen. This is a very good tool just to keep you in line with like some important things to do with options expiration, because whether you like it or not, markets do move based on actually the options market can really manipulate markets. And I believe that's a big reason that right now, especially in current times being the last like 20 years, you can really see those traps from the DXY, where the dollar really bottoms and it's like, hey, who the heck is going into cash and it bottoms for a long period of time to where it's bottomed for, you know, six months a lot of the time. And then we see a top in the market. I do think that the options market is a big player in that. And you know that we're potentially getting to rougher spots when they start to open up more and more and more options to keep things afloat. If that's how I see markets, you can disagree with me, that's perfectly fine. But you cannot disagree with the fact that in the 90s, the options market was almost, you know, it is kind of just very, very small, if not even there, for the most part. Now, the options market is huge, it is massive, the percentage of increase of the options market of zero DTE alone is insane. And that is a tool that is used to hold markets up. So paying attention to these dates, the reason I'm saying that, paying attention to options expiration, but also paying attention to expiration, something that a lot of people do not talk about, is a very, very good thing. So paying attention to the 17th and the 18th of this month will be important. Now to double down on the importance of that date, of those dates, I wanted to pull this across. So I wanted to pull up the data just so you are aware very early on before we get into some technicals before the market opens in three minutes. We will have, do I need, I need to, wait, did I say PM, did I say PMI last night? It's Jolt's job openings and that is coming out at 9am. I don't know what I was saying last night in my video. I'm sorry about that. I must have messed up in my, I must have had the old calendar up or something like that. I need to hit that refresh button plenty of times, you know. But the big thing I wanted to point out here was Friday. Friday, you do have non-farm payrolls and unemployment. The thing about this is you can't see it on the screen. So I'm going to zoom out for just a moment and see if I can get you guys to see it. So on Friday, right here, this 4.4% notice that the forecast is increasing for unemployment. That does open the door. People do not celebrate unemployment, right? Unemployment means less money to be spent in the economy, right? If you are unemployed on one end, potentially more tax dollars do go to unemployment. But at the same time, you have less people that are able to pay out of their actual job if they are unemployed to keep the economy growing. So it means, hey, if I lose my job, it's kind of hard for me to buy a new computer. It's kind of hard for me to buy this. It's kind of hard for me to buy that. So I just wanted to point that out. We do have a potential increase coming for the U.S. unemployment rate. That can be wrong, right? It can be wrong. But we just talked about those dates of the, what was it? It was the 17th and 18th, right? So 17th, you will get this retail sales month over month. But at the end of the day on the 17th, going into options expiration, while you are in VIXpiration, you have a recipe for some high volatility. That's how I will phrase it right now, because we need to see how the market proves itself. And please let me know if the stream ever starts to act funky. It was acting funky a couple of times. This right here, Fed interest rate decision, FOMC economic projections, and a Fed press conference. There you go. So you have an excuse for a move for sure here that can actually move markets. So just pay attention to that. This is overlapping with VIXpiration. And if you think that's an accident, nothing's an accident in my book. Nothing's coincidence in my book. There's a reason for everything. It's just, do you have enough information to see the reason for something happening, right? The way that I explain this, my type of thinking around this, if you're interested in my type of thinking at all, is a roulette wheel. I really like roulette. It's one of my favorite things. I love probabilities. I have not gambled in a very long time. I think about a year ago, me and my wife, you know, we take a hundred bucks and we go and we sit and we play for a little bit a year ago. But that's the last time I really gambled anything, except for the fun account. You guys know what I'm talking about. The way that I explain this, though, is if you had enough information about a roulette wheel, if you could see every single groove, if you could see in your eye the speed of the ball and the bounces it was going to take, you could tell exactly where it's going. It's just, we don't have enough information. So we call it random. We call it coincidence. That's what I believe can be explained by markets as well, is you might not have enough information to see it, but you can see the recipe for something stirring around there. So paying attention to how the market looks around the 17th and 18th of this month will be very, very important. Okay. Let's pull this over here, pull it back and then get into the technicals for today. I think the technicals are very important here. Overall, the video today or yesterday, I guess for today, we suggested this two-hour pullback is probable. First question to the chat here is, did you, and be honest, and if you, and you can say no, and you can say no. S-I-V, yeah, that's cool. You can always, you can always say no. It's not going to hurt my feelings if you didn't. But I want to ask you guys, did you watch the YouTube video or, because this was a big problem with live video as well. People would come to the live video. They would have no indication in their subscribers. They would have no indication of what we talked about last night. Very important to watch last night. So we're all at the same base level. And then we can continue to analyze as the market proves itself. We don't want to be backtracking or anything like that. So please tell me in the chat right now with just a simple yes or no, if you were able to view last night's video. And once again, no hard feelings. I understand life is busy, but do understand that it is important for this live video that we all start at a good base level. At least if you are taking my analysis into consideration, then you would want to watch those videos so we don't have to go backtrack in any way. And thank you so much. And if you please someone who did not watch the live video or who did not watch yesterday's video, you can say no in the chat. It will not hurt my feelings or anything like that. But thank you so much to everyone saying yes, that's fantastic. You can say no, I was at my kid's birthday and I'm going to feel bad for even saying it right. But we will recap a little bit every single day. So if you're able to, if you miss a video or something like that, we will always go over what I believe to be the most probable, the most important information. DG, that's, yeah, that's perfect. Exactly. That's perfectly fine. I just want to give you the respect of saying that it is important to watch that, even to get just the, even if you skip to the end and kind of look at the most probable, genuinely. Just understand where we're at. As long as you get the information, usually that I display in the thumbnail, you'll have enough, right, to get by. But I will go over what is the most probable here. We see right away that we are seeing some downward price action. We actually noticed yesterday that volatility was able to base out. Notice that the two hour is still by that center line. So is another two hour divergence here, right? We're still open to this, but because the 30 minute is curled up in positive tears, we're trying to curl down as of right now, but it is trying to take back that five day. You're kind of getting some wonkiness in here. Just be aware that this move was positive enough for the 30 minute to go positive. So if that's able to curl up, we're kind of looking for that higher low. And that's what I believe can happen here. But I am still very open to some kind of divergence around this area. And we could maybe do the higher low later while the SPY makes a divergence or a lower high. The reason we are looking at this is not only because the 30 minute showed us the divergence and made the higher low, but because it shows on the SPY, it shows on the Qs. And IWM over the weekend, that's why we are mentioning that the SPY and the Qs could kind of catch up. IWM had that divergence as well just a little bit earlier. So IWM trying to lead that two hour pullback. IWM, maybe it's finished. We'll have to see. As of right now, we are trying to confirm that said divergence. You can see this between the two highs. Usually you want to connect that between the actual closures of the bars in some way. That's the actual measurement there. And you see that that was actually able to form on the RSI and form in the near price action for the MACD as well at the same time. When they are at the same time, when you have more reasons, just like we said with the roulette board, if I have more information, that is good information. You need to know the difference between good and bad information. Good information and kind of futile or worthless information. But if you have enough good information, which I do believe that this is good information at this point, to say it to you guys, this is something that you'd want to be watching for today. This does say that you have a good probability here to see a two-hour pullback if this is able to confirm in the morning. That was the discussion from last night. So thank you so much, DG Hohner, for saying that you were busy and you weren't able to watch the video. We will still make sure to update you on the important parts. And I think the important parts here is you saw this for the spy, you see it on the Qs very blatantly here. You see it on the Qs, you see the same thing. And we noticed that IWM already showed it. So we already had it for IWM before, I believe, the weekend began. You saw this confirm on Friday. You got a nice little what? A nice little two-hour pullback. So IWM looks like it's potentially ready to go, right? Hey, are we done here? You know, that's kind of the statement being made from IWM, decisions possibly to be made. We have a daily expected move, but you know that my contention, my thinking here, my conclusion is, you know, the Qs or IWM are going to tag this line. That's what I think is the most probable. Because you tag weekly and monthly expected moves about 75% of the time, annual expected moves potentially can be in that same percentage. I have only used annual expected moves for, what is it, three, three going on for, I think, years. So, and they have tagged them, I think, every single year. So we do notice that this is here. It can act like a magnet. You have your weekly expected move there as well. All you have to do is curl up like this. And then guess what? You might go straight into a Friday unemployment trap, right? We'll see if that's able to take place. In a little bit, maybe a little bit, we'll go over the macro side if someone needs it, okay? Oh, DGH owner. DGH owner. My bad. So that's how I'm seeing things at this point. I think the market's behaving exactly how it should. But IWM, we went over this over the weekend. We went over this yesterday. IWM and the spy in the queues with that positive price action does lead us to believe that getting to these annual expected moves does make sense before we can see something ugly. Now, that something ugly, if you heard my argument over the weekend, was that you can see the weekly chart has overall crossed through. So we'll just go over a little bit of macro here and maybe we'll double down on it if someone asks a question. But we do see that the weekly chart is positive, right? And it did wipe out that divergence point. And as of right now, it's wiping out these divergence points on the RSI. That means a weekly pullback can happen. And then we could curl to the upside. This is a positive trend. So a pullback can be coming. So we want to watch out for what on the daily scale to give us hints. We want to watch out for daily divergence. You see here, IWM blatantly, blatantly showing you daily divergence. And you even see if we blow this up down here on your RSI, you see blatant triple divergence. Can we get to a higher point? Yeah, as long as you're not violating this point. You know, a lot of people like to draw a little trend line here. I don't do that all the time, necessarily. I'm more so someone who's just like, hey, I just don't want it to cross through. You know, this line right here. I really don't want it to cross through this level. Once it does, it starts to open the door for more continuation. So what do the bulls need here? You need more squeeze. And that's how it goes. And this market does like to squeeze. So we'll see if that's able to take place. But our argument here is we are very close to some kind of top that will create a fake stock market crash, aka people will call it stock market crash. You may even see my thumbnail call out stock market crash. Usually I like to put quotations. But this needs to be considered now because of the dollar bottoming signals on not only the daily scale, but the daily scale gave us a hint and said, hey, the weekly is about to go into positive territory. And that's why we are really paying attention to these things. Let's go back over to the SPY, look at the market. And I'm going to peek over at chat to see if anyone has a question. If there is any stock that you would like to look at that is a part of our list, you can kind of see a part of that list or most of that list on the right side of your screen. I'll kind of scroll through the past the indices so you can see most of the list here. Oh, and I will hopefully be bringing the camera so you guys can see my ugly mug very, very soon. But I'm still, you know, lack of sleep last night, of course, I was sick yesterday, felt better to make a YouTube video. So I'm thankful for that feel very, very good today. So thank you guys for your well wishes again. But last night, we got a random thunderstorm that wasn't supposed to be it. We got a random thunderstorm and it was shaking the house. So I woke up a few times. So I'm not running on the best sleep. But I wanted to make sure to be here for you guys. Do they ever change during the year? No, they do not. They are exact. They are calculated. And I will look at Microsoft for you in a moment, Sebastian. But they are calculated exactly like monthlies, exactly like weeklies, exactly like dailies. They do not change. Like I said, I am planning on putting out potentially on Patreon or maybe even on YouTube. We'll see how we feel about it. How to create these ranges, pretty much how you create a table. So I create tables. I use spreadsheets to do monthly expected moves and things like that. So you've seen them plenty of times with if you're a Patreon member, you see them all the time. But these tables, I really wanted to put a video out so that you could potentially make a range for any stock. My worry with that has always been that people are going to try to use these for penny stocks and things like that. In my opinion, I have created them for people for penny stocks, like friends who are interested and things like that, family who's interested in a stock. They don't behave exactly the same in those said penny stocks because they are higher risk. So just be aware of that. They can work for a certain stock, but usually you want a decent amount of volume in those stocks. So the most trustworthy weekly, monthly, daily expected moves will be for the SPY, the SPX, the QQQs, those indices. Those are going to be very, very nice. And potentially the MAG-7, those will be very nice as well. But they do work for these stocks in yellow on the right side of your screen here. They definitely work for those. So just be aware that you just want a decent amount of volume behind them. Okay, let's go over into, hey, Sebastian, do you want to use the good, do you want to use my charts? Do you want to use my charts? Oh, and thank you so much for subscribing, Prince. I appreciate you, buddy. Thank you so much for subscribing, bud. Shout out to Prince out there. Monthly moves our calendar months while options expiration is mid-month. It is counterintuitive, but you have to include the entire month. You have to include the entire month. Options expiration, you can create a range for that. Who said that? Victor? Victor, you can create a range for options expiration. You can create a range for any expiration that you do have. So if it has an expiration, you could create it right now. You could technically create a range from right now to that expiration with the information you have and create a range. It's just I haven't tested that. The way that I've tested this is I do things over the weekend. I do things at the end of the month. I do things at the end of the year. Do the stocks usually hit both high and low for the week? No, the percentage of the weekly expected moves from my analysis and double downing and using analysis from you guys know I shout out him all the time. I really, really think that he is helpful to you guys as well. And he does more day trades if you're interested in that. Figuring out money. Michael Silva, great guy, great information, fantastic information. And he also has done a lot of backtesting to figure out some of these things. I believe me and him have differed on percentages and our moves differ from time to time. But he is a very credible source for information. And his is about 75%. I think when I do my calculation since I've used weekly expected moves, I did it for a full year. I think it came out to about 72%. What that means is for my analysis, for my anecdotal data, if you will, about 72% of the time for me, we have tagged weekly and monthly expected moves. Now, that says we have tagged one side, okay? So the 75% doesn't mean, hey, we're 75% likely to do this. Once we tag it, we have 75%, you know, we're going to pull down to here. That is not what I'm saying here. What I'm saying is when you start out the week in the middle, you have kind of a 75% probability to get to these lines. One side. Does that make sense? Hey, thanks, D. I'm a, yeah, DG. I like him a lot. He's fantastic. I haven't watched much lately. He's one of the only financial people that I ever will shout out on this channel. And I know you guys have told me to look at a lot of people. And I've told you that some people I think are credible. Like, and I just base that off of the information I'm getting and then comparing it to my viewpoint to see if it makes sense. Having the skill set is a very important thing. Because then you can compare and actually know what people are saying. So that's important. Someone can, someone can show you a big win and tell you they're great and then not have good information at all. Maybe they just got lucky or something like that. But very, very good channel. Yeah, 75% chance will, or probability that you will tag one of those sides each and every single week. That is one side, not both. I really haven't done, I kind of want to do that though. I wonder what the percentage is to tag both. It's probably very low. I would assume it's very low. We have seen it. You do see it from time to time. I will say this. Usually when you see it, it's around big Fed announcements. We actually have seen it on live shows and stuff like that. Usually it's around big Fed announcements. So you have a big Fed announcement this month. Now we need to go over Microsoft, but I wanted to ask Sebastian if you wanted to look at the big charts. What was the name of the channel? Figuring out money. Very good channel. I highly suggest you go follow it if you are trying to learn or you're just looking for good information to continue to monitor how this market can move. I want to see if Sebastian. Sebastian, I'm going to do it with the monthly moves considered because that's a pretty solid move for Microsoft. Okay, so I need to actually go to the other charts. Sorry, guys. Remember, I haven't done that. I haven't done live video in a minute here. I used to be very, I think, efficient at it. So let's go here. Right now we're on Amazon. You can see Amazon trying to put in the lower high with rejection. But here we have Microsoft. Microsoft climbing up to, and we have, this is something interesting about this week. The SPY not having a solidly, I would not say has a huge range. But a lot of these stocks for the week do. I mean, I think AVGO was a big surprise. AVGO has a huge weekly expected move. Now, you would say, oh, it's a big surprise. But earnings, right? So now I'm not surprised. I was looking at that just on the table. Now I'm not surprised. So for something like Microsoft, one thing to consider here is I actually do want to pop over to the weekly chart. First, I want to see that we're in negative territory. So if we curl down on the weekly chart, does that, what does that mean? And what does it look like for now? Well, you haven't taken out this low. That opens the door for price action to say, hey, there could be a trap down here. They could be retest down of the low and things like that. If I start to see some fishy things in here, I need to watch if this weekly curls down because that does open the door to testing the low and going to make a new one, right? Making a new low means, hey, making a lower high to come down and potentially make a lower low. I'm sure people might even draw something like this up, some kind of big head and shoulders. But for now, you would just keep this on your mind and say, if I see daily divergence, I need to just be aware that something can be shaken up here. You do see a form of daily divergence. That's kind of why I'm bringing it up. But this is a very good move as of right now. So you do have a very thin, very insignificant, but still there. It is there. So we call it significant in some fashion. But a lot of the time, we pay attention to when the divergence is like more significant. So as of right now, you just have like kind of like very flattish. That means I should still be open to maybe one more push to make it more significant, more of a steep angle. If it's at a steeper angle, usually I treat it a little more seriously, okay? First of all, that's the daily chart. You do have it. You have it on the MACD at the same time right now. But as of right now, that's a very good move. And so I'm assuming that the two-hour chart was able to pull back in here and able to curl up and able to go positive. And as we can see, we see this price action here, price action here, price action here. But the important part is right here. We noticed that we were able to go positive. We pulled back to that center line. We cross up into positive territory. Boom. Guess what? You come into, what is this, the end of the month? Maybe you see another couple of days and then you say, hey, hey, this is confirming. So next week's weekly expected move would be a good profit target for $70.05. We weren't able to fully get there just yet. But look at this. The two-hour chart was able to go very positive that if it would get a two-hour pullback, would we more likely set up a higher low? And I'll ask you guys questions a lot in my chat. So if you could answer them, I would really appreciate it. If you curl down here, the big question I'm going to ask you is, are we right now, with the information we have about Microsoft, Sebastian, if you're still here, if the two-hour curls down, are you at risk of seeing, at least from the information you have, we know markets can, it can happen, but is this high probability? That's how we like to say it. And you guys can answer, please answer these questions in the chat. It makes me feel better. It makes me feel like we're participating. But if this would curl down, where is it, and would we be highly probable to do this? No. And if you want to, what would be the higher probable thing? Right? I see some answers in there. [00:31:56] Speaker 2: I think that's fantastic. What would be the higher probable thing? I would think gap fill at the weekly move. [00:32:05] Speaker 1: I like this. I like this. Close to the center line. Close to the center line could be the next opportunity for what? Higher low, right? We just broke through after good consolidation where we got nice and tight. If you want to see tightness, just add Bollinger Bands, right? You see how tight we got right here? And then we expand, right? This is a very, very common thing that you should know about markets. How do they move? What's the very basic way to understand how charts move, how stocks move, how price moves? It goes from, hey, I'm moving really fast to, hey, I'm piling up, getting really tight. Hey, I'm moving really fast, right? It kind of goes from A to B, A to B, A to B a lot of the time. So this is something that you can utilize. I don't use it for too much more, except for when I used to have fun watching. I would watch that guy for like two minutes every once in a while, just because I like his voice. I don't trade like him at all, but his voice is so funny. What does he say? He says the structure. Oh, look at the structure right in here. I have no idea if he's good or bad. I just think the voice is so funny to me. I don't know why. Some of the information about Bollinger Bands, though, he does give very good information, I'd say, about Bollinger Bands. The reason I use Bollinger Bands, I used to use them just for a simple way to tell my brain, hey, you are in a period of expansion. Hey, you are in a period of consolidation. Hey, you're getting tight. A big move might be coming, right? Very simple. I have looked at cyclical cycles. I just don't think they've benefited. So if you notice about a lot of people bring things up, I used to use volume profile, used to use all these things. And I noticed that a lot of it becomes clouded. If I can simplify and make a strategy that is very simple, but utilizes good information, that's better to me personally. But I totally understand you using things. And you can always bring an indicator up. And I will talk about it because I know about pretty much every indicator. It's just this is what I found works for me. And this is how I monitor how markets really move. And then I have my strategies. And I think any because we think of money so differently, each individual person, a lot of this, these videos are to just tell you how markets move. So you don't get trapped in something huge and lose a bunch of money. That's, that's pretty much my, my, my consensus here. That's pretty much what I try to do. Because people broadly look at money so differently, like you could be zero DTE. I like, you know, sometimes two week if it's volatile, four to eight week plays. So we're different. But monitoring and being able to understand how the market moves over time is good. So let's talk about how this could move right now. What is the two hour highly likely to curl down? Well, the 30 minute does not really show any form of divergence. But you are kind of getting a little bit of a rug pull here. Have we wiped out all these buyers? No. Have we gotten to weekly move? Technically no for Microsoft. So is it possible that we come down to here, we doodle around for a while, we curl up into positive territory, and then we see a potential divergence? Or is it possible that we come down here, we doodle around, we squeeze through, and we set up that divergence up towards the monthly expected move? I think those two scenarios seem very, very probable based on the information we have. And then I can flip the script, right? If this never curls up, but instead starts to go deeper, and I see the 30 minute curl up, but it's now negative, then I need to pay attention to potential higher lows or divergences at that point. If the two hour is able to cross, you start to look for the 30 minute to give you the higher low or the divergence hint. Hey, thanks for stopping by, DG. Have a great day, all right? Oh, 100% ZA. And I've looked at it, I actually, like, I think it was like six, it was a long time ago, probably like during Christmas time, I was having some fun. And I looked at a guy who, just because it's so interesting on Twitter, I got, you know, my brain works like that. I get sucked into things, maybe it's the ADHD. But that's kind of a blessing too, because that's what made me learn technical analysis, like so heavily. But he did moon cycles. Do you know what I'm talking about, ZA? Some moon cycles and stuff like that. I thought that was very funny. Hey, thank you for that, Remy. Thank you. My wife, you know, had a rough night's sleep as well last night. But of course, the little three month old monster, she slept, she wakes up smiling, stretching, you know, she likes to let out all her toots in the morning. I shouldn't even tell you guys that. But thank you. Thank you for shouting out family, because it is important when looking at things that have to do with money, to understand that your priorities need to be straight here. Your priorities should be friends and family and doing good in the world. And my, I mean, not even my opinion, actually, God's opinion. So we need to be doing good in the world and keeping your priorities straight is good. So I hope that you aren't trying to trade to get rich. If you are trying to trade to get rich, I hope that it is to benefit your family or your friends in some way. I watched him too for that crazy idea. Matthew, it is wild how interesting it was, because it kind of added up. I don't know if ZA knows about it, but X went from trend lines to everything's a cup. Yeah, I don't. I try not to shout out cup and handle. I'll talk about a lot of head and shoulders, but even head and shoulders and stuff like that. I think people get wrong a lot of the time. Microsoft here for Sebastian out there. It really looks like we have a lot of room to that monthly. We haven't gotten to the weekly. I think the 30 minute chart, you kind of would be a little bit early to say the two hours just going to cross down. I think it is more likely that you kind of see the two hour create a higher, the 30 minute create a higher low to give you that hint over here. The two hours going to kind of fail here. Or cross down for a bigger pullback, maybe down to the monthly, maybe to test these buyers, right? See some kind of higher low. And then we get the two hour to kind of curl up into positive territory. But as of right now, 30 minute, so positive that all you'd look for is retest of the five, retest the buyers, doodle around, doodle around, get close to that center line, curl up. Whereas the target, potentially the weekly expected move of 470.05, that is the decision making area if you're into little 30 minute swing trades. 30 minute swing trades for me personally, once again, my personal life and everything like that's too fast for me. This took a lot of time to notice for myself. So I hope you are noticing how you and I are different, how you are unique in how you view money and you're able to actually do strategies that will benefit over time. A lot like a lot of my trading would be, or I would say it this way, because trading, I kind of do different things sometimes. So I would say it this way. A lot of my analysis will be to view how the two hour is going to move to view how the daily chart is going to move. You entered meta swings. Very indeed. I don't even, okay. I know this is, I know I'm going to sound dumb. And I'm fine with that because I am dumb. Very inspiring. Okay, cool. So I had to look up endearing. I hear that. I've heard that word plenty of times before. And I, I, I've been, I've been trying to look up words more. Does anyone else do that lately? I've been trying to look up words more to make sure. Sebastian here. So I think that's the best information for you. It's too early to suggest that that two hour is going to curl down and get to that center line. In my opinion, the 30 minute hasn't given you any kind of hint and the two hours still has some room before it crosses down here. You could still pull back for a full all day potentially. And, uh, still curl that 30 minute up. [00:40:21] Speaker 2: Very nice. Yeah, I do. [00:40:29] Speaker 1: Uh, meta. Let's go check on meta for a moment. Let's do it without the things for a second. So 30 minute big dip to the downside. Um, do I think that you're wrong in saying, Hey, I'm going to, I'm going to potentially take calls here. I would say that price action says a little bit risky. I'm not, I'm not going to, uh, butt heads with you though, because if this ends up being a higher low in some fashion, you're right by the center line. This is a better decision to go here. Right. Then to go here. Right. Immediately. We can learn from this. This is a great thing. I'm glad you shouted out a meta so we could look at this. We went directly into those sellers. Those sellers did clamp down on you. Okay. They did clamp down on you. But if the two hour is able to curl up here, you still have room to go test into this five day. You still have room to blow past that and potentially do what test the high and go make a new one. But because of the selling in here was so strong, you really would pay attention to this level, which brings us to our 30 minute chart. If we look at the 30 minute chart with that, uh, in, in mind, we see here that, you know, this can work out for you. I think anything can work out for anyone with, with the correct thinking. And I think that this potentially can be a good decision, um, in the future, right? Even doing it right now. But me personally, I like to see that higher low. I like to see that divergence created, uh, before I really do anything in this scenario. Why? Because you are significantly negative in some fashion. Kind of to put it in perspective, even this move into negative territory right here, you still created a divergence point or higher low, but in this case, a divergence point to kind of tell you like, Hey, we're going to start to build back here. The two hour is going to curl up. Right? So I'm not saying that what you're saying, what you're talking about or your play or anything like that is bad. I'm never, I'm not going to say that because anyone can get any trade that ends up working out. The market does what the market wants to do, but I'm just talking from my perspective here, a higher low on the 30 minute or that 30 minute divergence down in here, which you can create a 30 minute divergence by testing this wick and getting a little double bottom, just kind of like we did over here. It's a little bit lower, but it's a little different. That's more when I would make a decision, but I totally understand you potentially had three to five reasons to take a trade. So if you have three to five reasons, you think you have an edge, I'm not going to disagree with you. I do want to say that the decision making is better. That is a better decision. In my opinion, I'll shout you out for that. It is a better decision to not get sucked in by all the bullishness. Just say, Hey, I missed out on the 30 minute divergence right here. Darn it, right? But the two hour just put in this potential higher low. So that means, uh oh, the daily might be crossing up the problem here with the daily chart that I will discuss with you right now, just so you are aware of it, uh, since you did put your money where your mouth is, I think that's fantastic. Um, but you did test into those sellers, right? So if this is able to fail in negative territory, it would say you are going to break this level. And I'd say you'd be paying attention to these gaps at this point, but if you pay attention to those gaps, you'd really like that first one, cause that's where you get potential for some kind of wonky daily divergence or something. Uh, if you start to dip too low, you're starting to open the door to a longer period of time where you can suck this down all the way down into earnings. Uh, as of right now though, solid positive move. So let's go over price action with this to give you kind of the full analysis here. As of right now, this was due to the technical analysis, the, the, uh, indicators, right? So something else that can be said here is we took this out into earnings. That's important as well. We set up a two hour lower high. You can see that from the daily chart here. Dan, we get a wake up call kind of with earnings. Uh, but overall you still have taken out that high and you're holding, holding, holding. So if that two hour is able to curl up here, maybe this daily is actually able to go positive and you can start to test that high, go reach up to like 736, start to test higher levels. The overall statement I'm trying to make here is that price action is suggesting you are still in, uh, some kind of ABC at this point. So there is a way. And the reason I just brought up the daily crossing down on the MACD is for risk purposes, right? You should always be considering the risk. Um, uh, a good way to that. I, at least what pops in my brain right now, cause I was reading scripture was, um, count the cost, right? What's the risk count the cost kind of deal, right? What's the risk and things like that? Um, well, the risk is that the daily chart curls down here and we make a new low. Can you handle that? Can your mental handle that? Think about that before the position size is placed. That's, that's what I would say. Okay, good. Yeah. I appreciate that, man. I appreciate you saying thank you as well. Uh, I'm going to start saying this too. Say thank you in the chat. We should always be saying thank you. It's fantastic. Okay. It looks like that 30 minute. Now let's talk about the violation of this really briefly. I'm going to try to ignore chat. I'm trying to be better at ignoring chat when I think there's an important point to be made. Um, so I will not be looking at chat for the next like minute. If you want to hold off for just a moment here. And then I, I always try to read through too, as well. Like I just read that laws likes, uh, asterisk cycles. And I'm about to have them send me an email of like an explanation of them for fun. Um, always learning guys, always learning, always learning. We are, we are learners all the way up into our last day. That's how I see it. The divergence here does suggest that a two, that we could break this low, right? That we could come down, create some kind of lower high, get down to that weekly expected move for a full two hour pullback. We'll see. I think paying attention to the good buyers, the gap fill, or even the middle of the gap is very important for that two hour pullback. But what if that is violated? What is considered a violation with the technicals here from my standard? Um, what I like to do is if I think, uh, if I have a signal here, that says the two hour is going to curl down, I think about it very simply. If we don't break this low, or even if we do break this low, let's say we break that low. Let's say we come down into here and this is right here, right? If that curls up into positive territory, that's positive territory. I immediately say, test the high, go make a new one. To explain this, that would be the violation of the trade. The MACD being able to curl up into positive territory at any point, even taking out the low. This is technical analysis, not price action. Price action can disagree, but then price action can get it right, right? This could curl up into positive territory and fail and the trade's back on. Why? Because now you have the lower high. All right. So I totally understand, but you would have to say for this time period, that trade might be risky if you're shorting. I already explained last night. Hopefully you watched the full video to see how I just said briefly, um, the hesitance towards shorting until I see personally me, right? We're different. You may have the balls or the risk management to do it. But, uh, personally, I like to wait during very bullish times. I like to wait until I see, say, obvious two hour signals behind an obvious daily signal that says a macro pullback is coming. Once I go into that macro pullback environment, I can start to look at those potential short trades. I just wanted to mention that. So the violation of this trade would be if the 30 minute curls up here, if the 30 minute curls up right now, that would be a violation of the trade. Once that happens, if it is in, or at least close, very close to where it becomes risky, at least to your trade, you would have to consider taking that position, potentially off downsizing it in some way, waiting for a lower high, looking for the next divergence point or something like that. Um, and don't get caught in the story of, you know, shorting every single 30 minute divergence, right? This is why we utilize two hour charts very thoroughly. I wanted to show this off so you could see it, uh, because I believe it happened on the two hour chart just recently. I'm going to show you an example of exactly what I'm talking about. Why the risk, the risk of saying, Hey, we can, uh, curling up into positive territory doesn't matter because we even broke the low. You actually saw this right here. You notice that we were able to curl up. We pointed out to everyone, the divergence. We saw a drop. We were suggesting if you take out that low, you can create the lower high. And we also were suggesting, cause that was more so towards price action analysis that if the two hour curls up, we said the same thing here that we're going to say right now, if the two hour curls up in positive territory, it suggests we can test this high or go make a new one. So notice that we curled up into positive territory. If I still have a position that is short here and that curls up into positive territory and I don't react, this is something that can happen to you. Um, you can get caught up and then your mental is going to be shot. You're going to be chasing and things like that. Um, so the best thing to do is start to treat managing trades. This is what I'm going to say here. Start to treat managing trades as another win. Even a small loss is better than a full loss, right? Even if it affects your money in some way to where you lose, Hey, let's say you lose 70%. You saved 30%. Someone else out there did not save 30%. Someone else out there held onto it and lost a hundred percent. So starting to think that way of it's a continuous game where sometimes I'm going to get smacked, but I'm not going to let them smack me to where they put me on the ground is a very good way to start to think about managing risk. Joel 225. Is that what it is? I want to go grab it. I guess I can look it up. [00:50:33] Speaker 2: Is that what it is? Is it Joel? I will repay you for the years. [00:50:41] Speaker 1: The locusts have eaten the great locusts and the young locusts, the other locusts and the locusts swore my great army that I sent among you. Ah, yes. A restoration. I was more so talking about counting the costs, right? From, from Jesus. But so very key here. Same thing can be said, right? So here's the thing. Let's talk about it now with the two-hour chart we have now. We did violate this, but I understand that some people might still believe there's multiple point divergence. As of right now, you guys have heard me shout out multiple point divergence. This is very extended across. There's a lot of time in between here. So I just want to say from my personal opinion on this, I think this is too extended across to call it multiple point divergence. I could be wrong. Perfectly fine. I've been wrong all the time. I'm, you know, not smart. You know, that's how I like to say it. But if I were to say, hey, the two hour is crossing down right here. Okay. It's below the nine coming up. That's a reason. Hey, we just saw two moves outside of monthly moves. So coming to tag the bottom one for a pullback makes sense. Hey, I still have these divergences on the MACD intact. I have just violated one point on the RSI, but I have other points intact. I understand that. So we're going to talk about this. If this crosses down and I say we're going to tumble, right? I say we're going to tumble, you know, which is pretty much every single video of that guy you guys, you guys had me analyze, which I shouted out at first. I was like, I think he's good at macro, but I watched a couple more throughout last year and I just, I completely stopped. I was like, this is not good. And I let you guys know that I viewed it as not good. This for now, you would say what? If this crosses down and I think it's going to go like this, then that means this has to go negative. If this curls up into positive territory, does that hurt my position? Right? A simple curl up in positive, like if, if this is supposed to go down, but I see it curl up right here is, was that my plan? Was that part of my plan? Or is that going against my plan? Because the basic way to think about risk management or at least managing a trade, you know, cutting something before it goes wrong. I believe in the course, I call it like how to not get screwed. The second one is, is my trade going wrong? Is something here going against my trade? A curl up from the two hour in positive territory if I decide to short from this level. And I know some people might be shorting for six months out from now. I'm not saying, I'm saying if I'm maybe like saying, hey, this is going to happen in the next year, but it's going to happen in the next four weeks, then a curl up here would violate my trade, it would really start to say, hey, something bad to your trade is happening. The opposite of what you think is going to happen is starting to happen. So you need to adapt, you need to change. This is why I like to say the phrase, I'm, I'm just, you know, thankful that the phrase of trade like water came up when I really first started this channel. I never really said that. But when, when someone was asking me about, you know, managing trades and stuff like that, I was like, you got to trade like water. When someone was asking me about earnings, you got to trade like water. When someone's asking me about a piece of data, you have to be willing to adapt. You have to be willing to be wrong. You cannot come in trying to even learn about markets and expect to be great at it right away. Expect to never take a loss. I take plenty of losses. I usually try to shout out when I take those losses so that you can understand that those losses do happen. But that would be a violation of this trade if you think there's extended divergence across, if you think there's multiple point divergence. I do not think that that is an extended divergence. I don't think that that's a multiple point divergence at this time. That's my opinion. That's my personal opinion for what's happening right now. And I just wanted to point that out. I wanted to go through and give violation of it because I know that a lot of people out there are really talking bearishly. And I don't think they have, at least at this point, I don't think they are incorrect to be pointing that out. I do not think they're incorrect. I just think the timing might be a little off. And that's what you would say to yourself. Hey, I think the market's going to crash from here. Oh, wait, it curled up into positive territory. Okay, I'm wrong. It's probably a little bit later. Okay, we extended up. Oh, we went into Vixpiration and we curled down. Oh, that two-hour divergence is really close to the center line. Okay, that's better. Right? Or maybe you're even more reserved. Sometimes I'm more reserved. Right? Sometimes I like to see this. Oh, we crashed down. I didn't take the position here. But where do I? I look for that curl up and I look for it to cross back down in negative territory. And over here is the much less risky trade. Here might be more money. But you don't know in the future that you're going to execute properly. You don't know that this move is going to happen. So sometimes it does benefit you to wait for the lower high. Even with a divergence. Even if you see divergence. Even if we see this. Even if you see this. For some people, how they view money and their mental and what's going on in their life. Sometimes the better thing to do is say, Oh, I'm going to wait for that lower high. Right over here. All right? Some good stuff, guys. I'm really, as you can see, I'm talking a ton. Because I miss you guys, man. I do. I miss this. I genuinely do. It's been so, such a wild last couple of years becoming a dad and stuff like that. And now becoming a double dad, I guess. You know, having two girls. It's been a lot. It's been a lot on my wife. So I really appreciate you guys. And I know that live video does help a lot of people. It allows you to ask questions and things like that. And so I was very hesitant and upset to take it away. But it had to happen for, you know, the personal reasons. So I do appreciate you guys coming to the live show today. And I hope you do have a fantastic day ahead of you. Luke 14. Yeah, I was reading. I finished up again. Luke and John and just got into Acts again. It's funny how you read it. This is my second time going through. It's funny how you read it. And, you know, as you read the second time, things are different. Things are totally different. Like, dude, if you go and watch The Passion, and then you become a dad or a mom, you know, shout out the ladies out there. And then you watch The Passion. There's that scene of Mary, like, seeing Jesus fall. And she flashes back to when he fell as a child. And that just, it hits so much differently. So, yeah, I don't know. That was random. But genuinely, it's very beautiful how you can learn more and more and more from the same source. It's amazing. I have 12 MES short for June. [00:58:07] Speaker 2: Which date of June? End of June? [00:58:12] Speaker 1: I love that you guys are posting that stuff. That's fantastic. Love it. Stop losses are for quitters. Stop losses have hurt me so many times. Stop losses are something that I believe. And I'm not saying don't use stop losses, just for me personally, right? We view money differently. We do things differently. The stop losses scam in my head that I've noticed is back when I was using stop losses a lot, it would frustrate me a lot. Because situations like this, right? Situations like this, you know, and where we go and retest and then you get one of those wicks. Whether you like it or not, someone out there, market makers, whoever, they see your stop losses, right? We can understand they see your stop losses. They know where everyone has their stop losses, at least most people. So, I personally, and I'm not saying you should do what I do. I'm just saying what I do. I like to actively manage. I like to use, I like to do two-hour trades. I like to do daily trades, like daily as in daily trend moves, not day trade. So, you know, usually I think, usually I think it's two weeks to eight weeks. It's weird because I just haven't traded. I'm looking to trade again, by the way. But, because I've been off of it for so long because of all these things going on at home. I just think that for certain people, and I will consider myself certain people, stop losses aren't the best thing. I'm not saying they are bad. I'm in no way saying they are, like, bad. But for me, personally, I trust more in myself to actively manage a trade based on my skills. And I'm sharing that with you guys. So, if it ends up working for you, I really am so thankful that it ends up working for you. I am so thankful that it does. I'm thankful for your due diligence. [01:00:10] Speaker 2: Thank you. Oh, you have been, Bernie. [01:00:16] Speaker 1: That's what's up. Father, two daughters. Are their boyfriends. I got to handpick my son-in-law's. Hey! Maybe I'll do that. That's a good idea. I like that, Bernie. Bernie, I miss you, brother. [01:00:28] Speaker 2: I hope you're having a great time, man. Yes, exactly. [01:00:37] Speaker 1: Well, so, DJG, I know we say they. I just hold it up for the best. Hey, the thing is, J-Law, I will say this. I have a buddy who, he's not good at managing trades. He's not good at stop losses. He's not good at viewing the market to, because he works, right? But he likes to trade. So, what he ends up doing is he's very good at position size. So, he kind of took into consideration what I've said about, like, 3 to 5 reasons, to where he has, like, 3 to 10 reasons to take a trade. And then he'll just make a position size based on the 3 to 10 reasons, and he'll just let it ride. And, weirdly enough, I think he's weirdly successful. Now, I don't know if you should try that, guys. That is not something that I would shout from the rooftops, but I do have a buddy who does that. And I'm, at least from how he talks, I think he's relatively successful. I mean, which I guess relatively successful would be a 51%, at least a 51% win ratio. Now, a lot of grandkids. I'm excited to be a grandpa. I'm so excited. [01:01:54] Speaker 2: We'll see if we get there. That'd be amazing. [01:01:58] Speaker 1: Keep a mental stop. Yeah. You can also, like, you can also say, like, hey, my stop loss is, is, I don't know, let's just do a random thing. Okay, let's say I'm shorting. Hey, my stop loss is here. Okay, and I'm going to look at the 30-minute. Ah, this probably isn't the best practice, and this isn't the best example. But you could say, ah, okay, once this squeeze is violated, then I will manage the trade. It's just at that point, right? You could say, okay, I'm going to mark, this is what I'm talking about. You mark this off, right? And you say, hey, once that, and that's a thick line. You say, once that line on the RSI is violated, I'm out, right? Once it's proven to be violated, that means you have to wait for the actual reading to complete. You have to wait for the 30-minute to complete, aka this, like, 847 to go to zero and actually see it proven. He literally, yes, yeah, we're, yeah, we're not, I'm, I'm, I don't want to tell people what to do, really, with their, like, money and stuff. But, like, I see people online just shipping 30 grand behind, like, a zero DTE and being, like, that's my savings. So, I'm, like, oh, scary, dude. [01:03:25] Speaker 2: DJ, gee, did he make a comment? [01:03:30] Speaker 1: Wait, it's going to be, it feels as though they are deliberately pushing the market towards this open. Yeah, oh, sorry, that's what I was getting to. They is, in my book, when I say they, just so you're aware, I'm glad you guys are here, but, to hear it, but when I say they, I'm usually saying they as in the top 10% who own 90, what, is it 92 or 93% of stocks right now? They are who matter. When I say they, I talk about politicians, like, right, presidents and things like that. They are who matter, all right? Trump probably wants the market to go up until he's out. And so, what do you think would happen when he controls a lot of the buttons, whether you like it or not, he can do some funky stuff. Or, maybe it's the Fed, they, or it's market makers, they, right? It is still a small group, though. Oh, Moo? I don't think I've looked at MU in a long time. What did you say? Nice reversal on MU here. Do you have a range for it, Laz? Have you figured out how to calculate ranges? Let's look at the daily here. [01:04:37] Speaker 2: Let's see how big of a move you got. Do you have earnings? No. You are in the unknown. [01:04:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, you're in the unknown, huh? Daily divergence, okay, don't do that. Daily divergence violated on MACD. That highly suggests, if we start to see two-hour things, you have flatness, but no divergence, right? No divergence created, really. That's too extended across, in my opinion, there. A lot of room to the center line, so that means this could potentially get a daily pullback soon. But I would say a two-hour move like this gets you up like this, and then you get, like, that daily pullback to come down into, like, 800, 700, right in between there. But that being said, we say that because we're looking for opportunities. What is this? This is positive. It's squeezing, dude. This thing's squeezing. I'm very hesitant to short anything that's squeezing like this. Ever. Ever. But very, very cool. That means the next opportunity is potentially a two-hour pullback if you get it. The next opportunity, if you see, like, the daily start to pullback, I think would be a daily pullback into the gaps. I don't think cutting this low would be necessarily a good thing. If you start to do that, then you start to go, oh, that's a little deep. I'll maybe take it, but I'm going to watch if that rolls over here. How's the weekly doing for this? Dang! Nothing climbing. Oh, that's, like, vertical. At least you got this for a moment, but that's pretty vertical. I do call it the waterfall effect when you see something like this. I talked about that kind of with, like, AMD with this move. It's very, very, very nice in here for price action. Like, perfect. Like, perfect. Curls up into positive territory on a weekly. You think you can't trade based on the weekly? Safest way to do the market, guys, is to take options out of consideration. Save up, like, 20 grand. Just play with, like, 10. Like, that's really a way to be successful. The slow way is the fast way. If you're not good at risk management, that's a very good thing. Because even if you mess up and say this didn't play out and you have AMD at $250 or something like that, and you just bought it with $10,000 instead of doing options, well, at least you own AMD, right? It can come back, you know, those kind of things. You can just hold on to it. There are many other different decisions by taking out the risk of options. Because time's against you, right? We've talked about that in the previous live shows, like, years ago, a year ago. Yeah, where you kind of, like, yeah, time matters for an investment, but time is literally against you. Whereas time is kind of with you from the investment perspective, as long as you're not, you know, buying something fraudulent like I did when I was, like, 20 years old. My first ever investment. And that's before I knew the phrase, too good to be true. You know, look at RR. I'll look at it for you, buddy. You've been very kind, and you have been very patient in the chat. So thank you so much, Jonathan. I've seen this RR from maybe a few people, but. Weekly curls up. Still negative in some way. Rejection lower high. Your daily probably told you that. Yeah, daily too close to the center line to be safe. Kind of flaggy, too. I know, I spread it out to make it look better, didn't I? My bad. Try not to do that. Daily looks decent. Doesn't look terrible. No, it doesn't look bad. You're further up on this mag. You get a little bit of room. It's very tiny, though. So you notice the last time we failed, you're still in that uncomfortable area. So if the daily crosses down, a little bit of risk there. Let's look at two-hour. Okay, two-hour trend, though. Looks pretty good. You're just getting a simple ABC corrective move here. Bam. That's like your, you know, I'm sure you're, I don't do Elliott Wave, just so you know. I'm not smart enough for that stuff. And every Elliott Wave I see is completely different. And there's like eight different waves going on. And they're like, this one could happen. This one could happen. I like my moves better. But this seems like something like this could take place. Bam. Maybe you go into the gap. Who knows? 30-minute. Can you get a hint here? A good hint right now would just be like, hey, 30-minute divergence. Really, really quick. I know it went positive briefly, but bam. Okay, cool. And then you just hold. You have your management, you know, the managing of the trade. It looks like a two-hour move could be setting up soon. By soon, I mean probably in the next, probably you'll see if this is able to set up in the next two trading sessions. That's on meta. We actually went over meta, but this time we'll do meta a little bit differently. Was that good? I mean, overall, Jonathan, do you think you get what I'm saying? Daily looks a little risky. Still in that risky spot. Still below the last time that we actually failed to move. So got to consider that. The weekly, still negative in some way. I don't think you can get too much from the weekly. As far as weekly goes, though, let's look at investment-wise. I mean, 12. If you bought at 12, that's unfortunate. But, you know, you're climbing. Like, the overall trend here. [01:10:28] Speaker 2: Hmm? Hmm? Hmm? [01:10:32] Speaker 1: Yeah, you're still potentially creating higher low on the weekly. So, I don't think it's a bad decision. I think, like, safer because it's only three bucks. Probably not a ton of volume. Oh, I don't have volume on these. Do I not have volume over here? I have volume over here. I'm going to add it real quick, actually. How much volume are you seeing on, like, a weekly basis? Let's see. Where did we confirm? Right here. Where's that weekly? What's the volume here? 98.86 million. Not too bad. That's not bad. Yeah, I'd say, like, investing-wise. I'd say investing-wise, three bucks. Not bad. Yeah, I'd say investing-wise, not bad. Available to, I don't think you go down to 30 cents again. But anything can happen. So, what you do is you say, I think investing-wise looks pretty good. Options-wise, very interesting. Interesting meaning there's some risk there, which makes it more interesting. But the two-hour, I think that's fine, you know, as long as you're doing your good practices. If the weekly crosses down, though, I would say you'd really be waiting to see divergence, waiting to see a higher low before you would, like, add to the investment. We call this the Harry Potter. We like Harry Potters around here. Let me go look. So, volume was Dece. And then we're going to, oh, yeah, we'll stay over here, because I'll take a peek at meta for a moment. Yeah, we already talked about meta a little bit. How the two-hour is down. Actually, down to the weekly expected move. I'll double-check. I did update these for you guys. And this is the benefit to what we're going to do with live videos for Patreon. We will do random live videos for YouTube. But Patreon, this will really help us to keep it focused on learning, keep it focused on trading ideas, not veer me off, because I'm sorry, I have extreme ADHD. It drives my wife nuts. So, I get distracted very easily. And then I go on tangents for, like, an hour. 605.47, 605.47. So, you are at the weekly expected move. We did talk about this. This is nice to get an even better perspective. Do you see how it changes? Do you see how it changes? Do you see how it changes? Do you see how it changes? Who asked about meta earlier? [01:13:08] Speaker 2: Larry Tata. Who asked about meta earlier? Take from MES. 18 June. I think there's not a lot of time. What's the number? What's the target? Do you have a target AGL? [01:13:36] Speaker 1: That's true, Laws. Yeah, usually you see a move, then news, or you'll see reversal signals, and then the news is an excuse. [01:13:48] Speaker 2: Yeah, someone usually knows before you do. [01:13:51] Speaker 1: But for this right here, the weekly expected move, doesn't that, it just changed 7, 4, 3, 4. I'm just going to look at SPX. [01:14:03] Speaker 2: I'm being stupid right now, but I'll use futures, actually. Okay, so you have 7, 4, 3, 4. Okay. Okay, and I'm going to double check the, okay. [01:14:22] Speaker 1: 7, 4, 3, 4. You are, the position is outside of your monthly expected move for the SPX. So immediately, you have to be a little bit like, uh, I need this move to happen. So it might just be a simple matter of managing the trade to what you're comfortable with. I do like to buy extra time. I do like to buy extra time if I'm expecting a decent size move like that. That is a pretty decent size move for what we've been seeing. It is pretty decent. You would need almost another moment kind of like this one, right? So looking at four-hour charts for the futures here, can you get that moment? Yeah. Do I think it makes sense to potentially do that? Do I think that's like an unintelligent, totally stupid, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah? No, not at all. I'm just saying probably actively managing that and saying, hey, the four hours cross down. If that crosses up at any point, I have to manage risk. But I think you're hoping that it gets down to there and then crosses up. You can utilize the two-hour chart right now. I mean, I'm just going to do this. Can you utilize two hours? Yeah, you can utilize two hours. I knew it would look pretty similar. This right here, if the two-hour crosses up, that's kind of how I like to manage trades is I say, hey, if that two-hour MACD crosses up, something's going wrong. Something's going wrong. I'd rather take any kind of loss percentage-wise than 100% loss, right? And then all you do is you say, hey, if that reconfirms very quickly, then maybe I was just off with the timing a little bit. But as of right now, just so you're aware, I'll put it on here. I'll put it in yellow so you're not confused. It's 7, 4, 7, 5, 9, 8. And you said 7, 4, 3, 4, correct? So that is below the monthly expected move. And you only have a couple, two and a half weeks to get there. So the fact that you have low amount of time and you're expecting a bigger move than the 68% zone, it's just a little bit risky. And I'm just being honest with you about that. All right, because all that has to happen here is like you do this and maybe you're smart and you hit a weekly move and you take profit and things like that. But you're very likely to get a potential bounce. And a lot of people can be scared by this bounce. A lot of people won't manage this bounce. But it is good to potentially manage because that's the second leg that can actually get down to a potential number like 74, 30. You can see the A, B, C that can come. But immediately, all of this is off the table, right? If this curls up right now, right? Or if you come down to here and it curls up right here, if it curls up right here, even if it curls up right here, if you're close to that center line. I don't think you'll be close to the center line at that point, but I just want to make the point. If you're close to the center line, you curl up. So in here and here and here for this example, while you're by that center line, you have to understand that that is something that is just actively the market proving that something's wrong, right? That's something that is risky to your trade is starting to confirm in front of you. Is that helpful to you? And thank you for being patient as well in the chat. I appreciate that. I appreciate it because I saw you ask a couple of times. [01:17:51] Speaker 2: It's just I was in the middle of saying stuff. Meta 720 next week. [01:18:02] Speaker 1: All we have to do is see if that's probable. No. No. Can it happen? Yeah. I like to say that because it can. What do I think is more probable here? Well, as of right now, you'd say as long as we can get through these sellers, I'd be very, very open and cautious here, especially because your 30-minute chart is so negative. That you would really like to see squeeze into higher low, get through a lot of the bulk of those sellers. And then the other option here, though, is divergence. So, you have to be open to that as well. If that happens, the target, if the two-hour ever curls up, let's just praise it this way because it's simpler. If the two-hour curls up, positive territory, technically a higher low. You just got a move that kind of took you out of where you were stagnant, a little bit of risk behind it because those sellers in the 30-minute is negative. But if the two-hour curls up, it says, hey, we're going to test. It's kind of a bulky high. You'd say, we're going to test kind of in here, but you have to understand the sellers are there. So, you could only test there with that 30-minute. But if the two-hour can cross up and no 30-minute two-hour failure here, then you would say, test the high, go make a new one. That would be two very probable things there. Now, you have more information because I'm showing it off. I'm showing off these. So, hopefully, you guys join the live videos all week long because we want to show off weekly expected news. I want to show you guys how they work. If this curls up and it happens very quickly, you can get to $7.59. But I just want whoever is, if it's your buddy, if it's someone out there, $7.20 is way up here. And that takes you into the lower percentage area for the entire month, let alone the week. So, you would technically, if you only have a week, where's a week from now? Two, what are we at? So, nine, so like right here, you would have to like do this. Nope, that's not angled enough. You'd have to go like straight up to $7.20. Now, that being said, trading is different. We don't know if he's like, I'm going to hold until $7.20 is hit. But because it is so far out, this is very important if you're not familiar with options. And if you're not familiar with options and you're successful just trading a small account, keep trading the small account. Don't touch options for a long time. You can use them to mitigate risk in a large account and things like that. But you can use them for, say, hedging and things like that as well. There's plenty of ways to do it. But I don't know if he's planning this, but this is something that I've done in the past. But usually, I'll target the monthly expected move. And I'll just say, I want this move right here. Because if that move happens, this becomes more valuable. But it has to happen relatively quickly. Because if it kind of does this and does this and does this and does this and does this, and I'm still holding on to these contracts. They could actually lose value because I reached up way too high and I didn't buy enough time. Yeah, if I, and scalpers, man, respect. I do it from time to time. The six, like, you can, especially if we're reaching up to 720, that's low probability. The pricing of the options, this calculation is very cool. Because once you actually understand, and I give, I try to make you understand ranges for what they should be understood for. But when it comes to money values of options and things like that, if you reach outside of a monthly expected move, and for whatever reason, the move happens just barely slower than you think, but you still have time to expiration, you can still lose money on it. These could be worth, I don't know how much they're worth. I actually could look it up. Let's look it up. [01:21:59] Speaker 2: Give me one moment. What's the date? So you said a week from now. I'm going to put a week from now. But it's Tuesday, so I'll give them to, what's the last day of the week this week? Five. So the 12. Yeah, you're paying, like, you're paying, okay. The cheapest I see is, like, 80 cents. [01:22:44] Speaker 1: So to put that in perspective of what I'm saying is, even if I have that contract all the way out to here, that could lose money because this took too much time. Because I'm reaching out in the area where the pricing of the options is already going to be low probability. Like, and they're going to especially, like, so if you see a quick move, you can make money doing that. But you have to hope someone's willing to buy it. Meta's a big stock. Probably someone will buy it. But if it just, if you hold it, if you see this and you're like, and you don't have that profit taking in your mind, or you have that low expiration, like, say, the 12th, right? This might be valuable right there. But if this just pulls back, it's done, right? This can go way below, this 720 can go way below 80 cents. [01:23:42] Speaker 2: Oh, Baba, dude, how's Baba been doing? [01:23:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, we used to, we used to talk about Baba a long time ago on this weekly chart down here. Right? Well, it wasn't 2022. It was actually, it's closer to our lines here, I think. I think it was, yeah, it was here. February 2025. Yeah, that sounds right. February 2025. Right here. We were like, hey, watch, this is setting up to curl up into positive territory. Boom, we marked that high. We said, uh-oh. Oh, curls up again, makes the new high. Baba right now. Oh, that daily chart, dude. You looking at daily chart? Because weekly curls up here, it's within, it's within striking distance. You see in the past, we got some drag in this area, but the daily chart here is very important. Look at that. You're trying to kind of say, the indicator is trying to be like, hey, can we go positive with this? Can we not take out this low? Can we go positive with this? Can we actually say, hey, we're going positive? You're one or two days of positivity and you're in positive territory? That's pretty close. So actually, I think Baba, you know, barring some kind of failure, right? Risk management, managing the trade. The daily can curl up here. I think you're set to go try to make that upward trend. And then this could be actually the bigger move. And if you're going to see reversal before you see good things, you're going to start to see tapering off and things like that. For like pullbacks potentially or failure on the weekly. [01:25:21] Speaker 2: This was nice to you. [01:25:23] Speaker 1: This right here. Very brief. You see this? This tiny little thing in here, kind of in here. See all that? You're paying attention. But you notice the RSI didn't have it on that point. But it created it in the near price action. That's very nice. That is very nice. And then what do you utilize? Oh, we went well positive, right? But then you go up. What do you do? You look at the two-hour chart. You see what? You see divergence. Divergence that led to a potential rejection lower high. So the two-hour gave you the hint right here. So two-hour even gave you something down in here as well. All of these points to potentially get up to these levels. Boom. Goal achieved. Hopefully you have weekly expected, monthly expected move. Two-hour pullback. Another two-hour trade. Boom. Hopefully you have weekly, monthly expected move. You see divergence there. You go, uh-oh. All right. Trades are done. Chilling. And then you go, okay, what's this going to do? Oh, we went negative. We curled up. Oh, now we're in that negative trend. Two-hour curls down. All right. We're in negative territory. Go make a new low. Hey, potential to make money here as well. And then if you were like, yeah, I got some room to a monthly expected move. I'm going to hold on to runners. Bam. Those runners printed. So, I really like the behavior in there. For right now, the two-hour chart is still in some way negative. But that's a pretty solid move there. Pretty solid. We could just do that, which I think you probably want to take out this right here. You want to just get above that, I think, and then get a successful higher low. I think right there. I think right there is pretty good. So, 130. If you can make a higher low, that confirms around 135 to 137. Looks pretty nice. And then I would just quickly go calculate an expected move. I should just open it up and like, you know, I should just let you guys over the weekend submit to me something and then I can maybe calculate moves. But I don't know if I have enough time for that. That's why I want to put out that video so you can learn how to make it because Baba's a great stock to make expected moves for. Another two-hour divergence right here. Bam. Bam. Bam. I know the drawing's bad, but it goes negative. Kind of stalls here, then fully goes negative. Very nice. Baba looks cute. I still think a two-hour higher low would make me more comfortable, but I understand investing-wise. I think not the worst in the world. You're still in the bulk of these buyers over here. [01:28:07] Speaker 2: I don't think that's relevant. Okay. This was just so nice. [01:28:14] Speaker 1: I like this. So, yeah, if daily's able to curl up, that's why I'm looking for those two-hour hints. And that's a pretty solid move right there. So, daily's able to curl up. It does say, you know, you always want to have that management in case it goes wrong. You take out this high. You go like this. Hopefully, you have an expected move because from there, you would say pull back to potentially go higher. It is a daily chart, though. Daily momentum is pretty strong. So, you don't have to pull back a lot of the time on the daily. You're seeing that with the SPY. You don't have to pull back. But the market right now is in a state where it's like, because it hasn't, you can see something bad. So, if you start to see Baba just like pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, like completely be like, I'm not getting a pullback. You always want to be aware of that retrace potential. One thing that says, I got it shows an eight spread for SPY. Are those the right numbers? Eight spread. Let me look. You're talking about the expected range, like the actual expected move, I think, is what you mean by spread. Why I have, oh, monthly? Are you talking eight points for the SPY for the monthly? Or are you talking about to get there? What are you talking about? Because I see, on the monthly means I got, it shows eight spread. So, eight up and eight down. Are those the right numbers? Right now, I have much larger than that. [01:29:40] Speaker 2: I have 25 points. Eight. Eight would be, where's the last day of the month? 756, 65. So, 764. That'd be like, there. [01:30:07] Speaker 1: I was like, that's really small. I'm, I, um, if you, if you got that from me, I updated the Patreon because I accidentally posted daily expected moves from the previous day. Maybe that's what you're getting. Yeah, you might have the daily expect. Just make sure I updated the Patreon to get you guys the correct moves. I uploaded the wrong screenshot from, like, a week ago. And give me one moment, guys. Let me put you on a 30-minute chart to see if this violates at some point. And then we'll go look for any violation early from, like, volatility and stuff like that. Or the queues or IWM or something. [01:30:51] Speaker 2: Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys, okay? Give me one moment here, guys. [01:31:23] Speaker ?: Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Give me one moment here, guys. Give me one moment here. Bye. [01:32:40] Speaker 2: Sorry, mic muted. [01:32:55] Speaker 1: I just wanted to put a Gatorade in the fridge, my office fridge for the wifey really quickly. Wifey's doing some cool stuff. If you didn't know, my wife used to work three jobs in New York just to get by. She is a very, very talented artist. So she started. She loves nerdy. We love nerdy stuff. So we love like Pokemon and things like that. So she started drawing her own binders for people and stuff. It's really, really cool. She's been doing fantastic. So I had to give her a shout out. Let's go look for violation. The problem for me is the gap ups, gap down. So you are in a time, DJG, where and we talked about this. I think even 2025, we were talking about this. You're in a time where a lot of gaps do take place. Like, I think the I think last year we saw an insane amount of gaps, and I don't expect that to discontinue. I actually think we're going to go into times where you see more and more gaps. And then I think things can get pretty rough, and we're going to see some big gaps on one side. The good part is, a lot of the time, if there's like a sell off, like a correction, you'll see some gaps. But a lot of the time, they want you to see it as a retail person who watches markets. They want you to see it. They want you to get scared of the big red bar. So I just wanted to point that out. It's not always they want to rip it from you and lose your shirt. Sometimes they want you to see the blood. I think that is like a mental thing. But there's no there's no verification validity to that. But gaps are a rough business. And a lot of the time, if I see, hey, I don't know. Like, I don't have a confirmation. Like if we would have got a big gap down like this. It's just understanding that you have good information, right? You have good information that keeps you from doing something silly like saying, hey, we went down like this. We gap down to here. OK, well, then the better position is here if the market's going to give it to me. Right. Little things like that helped me a lot. But I yeah, gaps are a rough business. I just hate people that say like the very obvious thing about gaps. Like like the phrases that people use. What are the phrases? I have to like look them up. What are the three common gap phrases like gap and go something like that? OK, gap and crap, gap and fill, gap and fade, gap and go. Yeah, that pretty much means anything can happen. Just so you're aware that pretty much covers every single base. It doesn't give you a more probability. It doesn't give you any kind of information to say those phrases. Yeah, I just and yes, I used AI to find those. But yeah, I don't think that helps you. I could be wrong. Someone else could have better analysis on that. But for me, when someone says those phrases, I immediately take all I just turn it and turn everything off back in the day. Back when I was actually like learning, I figured out over time that that tells you nothing. [01:36:25] Speaker 2: Three 80 percent call. Should I sell? [01:36:42] Speaker 1: That's up to you, J lol. Because right now you haven't tagged a daily expected move. This is able to curl up. [01:36:50] Speaker 2: Actually, what are you? What are you in? It's crazy. Okay, thank you. [01:36:59] Speaker 1: Thank you, Christina. Christina, I appreciate you going back and looking. That was my mistake. I do apologize for that. But thankfully, I love that you guys are here. I love the YouTube community and the Patreon community because you guys are going to keep me in check. Like, I made a mistake literally in my video last night. I was looking at data. I was looking at data, I think, from like a week ago or something like that. I don't know. Or the wrong Tuesday. Or I was looking at Monday. And I think I said like services PMI comes out today and it's actually retail sales. Wait, no. I might have said it wrong again. Let me go. I'm like nervous. I'm going to get it wrong right now. Sorry. Yeah. So we have job openings. ISM services PMI come out on Wednesday. And then we have unemployment and non-farm payrolls on Friday. So yeah, jolts was at 9:00 a.m. for me, central time. That's why I like to say like 30 minutes after the open. Okay, let's check volatility, see if anything's violated there for a hint. We do see some funkiness here. So let's try to clear this up because a lot of people will be like, hey, is there divergence here and things like that. I do like my divergence to at least to get kind of in those overbought oversold territories. I know that this is just a reading, but I do like to look at this and still use technicals on it because it's worked. How you would read this is the highest bar, right? But where's the closure of the bar? It's right here. Highest bar. Highest closure of a bar. Right here. Right. Is there divergence kind of between those points? You would say yes. You would say yes. And actually, you can notice here that this is still higher than that. This is higher than that. So your three points are there, there and there. This has an argument for what? Triple divergence. We have argument for triple divergence for the RSI here. Very, very blatant. Lower, lower, lower. Higher, higher, higher. Right. Very nice. That means that the two hour is at risk of curling down. What were we open to? We're open to two hour divergence. Does the two hour divergence have to form at 15.04? No. If the two hour crosses down here, then that we are at risk of seeing potentially even a squeeze. If we see a squeeze, it's exactly what this market would probably want. Then you could extend up to that move. It adds more credibility for the 30 minute being able to continue. If you see this, you will wipe out those divergences. Right. You'll plainly wipe out those divergences and potentially need to reset up those signals. I wouldn't be surprised if this market wants to build a trap all the way up into VIXPiration. I'm going to discuss that at the beginning of this video with data, because on VIXPiration at the end of the day, you will get the Fed press conference. You will get the Fed interest rate decision. [01:40:12] Speaker 2: What? What? [01:40:14] Speaker 1: What? What? No, you can't. [01:40:17] Speaker ?: You can't thank me for that. [01:40:19] Speaker 1: What daily expected? There ain't no daily expected move. Did I did I not put up the right daily moves or something? Yeah, somebody, we didn't get there. We didn't get there, dude. You can't thank me for the for the data executives and we didn't get there. Now, if this is able to extend, which volatility does have a signal suggesting this can extend. Yeah, you can get to 762.83 by the end of the day with a high probability. Would that be enough? Would that be enough to squeeze through? I think potentially, unless you like do it quickly and fade, and then you spend the rest of the day kind of selling off, you get kind of that thing that we were that someone asked at the beginning, hey, is it very probable to tag both sides? Daily expected move, it's going to happen more often, right? The smaller the expected, the smaller the expiration for the expected move, the more likely to see crazy things. I got to change my shirt. This is a good sign. I was sick yesterday. I'm getting hot in my sweatshirt, so I'm going to change real quick. [01:41:48] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt, so I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:15] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:18] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:24] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:26] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:29] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:38] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:39] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:42:41] Speaker 1: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:16] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:18] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:19] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:21] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:23] Speaker 1: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:38] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:39] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:43] Speaker 2: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:45] Speaker 1: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:54] Speaker ?: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. [01:43:58] Speaker 1: I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I'm going to change my shirt. I got you blue collar. There's always another setup. [01:45:12] Speaker 2: Keep that mental good. You did something good. Be happy about it. We haven't talked about Tesla. [01:45:31] Speaker 1: Grandpa in 2013. Did you become a grandpa in 2013? Congratulations whenever you became a grandpa. Sounds awesome. You've been saying pullback every day. Pullback. You've been saying pullback every day. Pullback. Let's see here. Tesla. Let's go do it on the good charts. Let's do it on these. Tesla, there is some risk here. But as you look at the two hour chart, the risk is that your potential to make a daily lower high and you're getting kind of confirmation of that. Uh, in some way it does. It is all taking place in positive territory. So it doesn't have to be done. Uh, for Tesla. Tesla moves very quickly though. A lot of the time. The last time we talked about Tesla was down in here. And we, uh, actually acknowledged that we were looking for us to take back. I think it was right here. Actually, we were looking for Tesla to take back for 15. We go up to that area. We pull back. We take back for 15. That's fantastic. Um, we see here that the two hour chart is positive. So do I think that this is a pullback that leads to an opportunity? Technically? Yes. This is actually something that I really, really like here. FOMO can be dangerous. Yeah. Missed opportunities. Doesn't mean you missed a good opportunity. Even if it looks good. Right. Right. Even a good opportunity can turn into a bad one. It's just, it's just, you know, you got to take the hand you're dealt and say, Hey, was I doing something good? You were doing something great, man. Taking your kids to school. That's fantastic. Shout out to you and shout out to the kids. I hope life's going well. We right here, two hour curls up. What do you do? Potential to test the high. Go make a new one. This is a scenario where Tesla can potentially tag both expected measurements. So whoever was mentioning that at the beginning of this live stream, if the two hour curls up here, you can see, uh, Tesla tag four 58 70 by the end of the week. So that's if the two hours able to curl up. So let's go into, we already notified you about the daily chart, being able to curl down, suggesting a potential for a lower high. The 30 minute here is negative. Okay. So Tesla does weird things. Uh, Tesla does this kind of all the time. I just want to make sure that's not often earnings or something. The 30 minute here, you notice went negative. Bam goes positive right now. You do see forms of divergence, uh, not on the MACD, but just on the RSI. So you would say, Hey, I didn't have a lot of hints. Maybe I didn't have the most edge for this trade, but there was a weak trade set up here. But man, did it play out. That's fantastic. Uh, 30 minute gave you forms of divergence here, right here. And right here, kind of flat on that MACD though. Yeah. Pretty damn flat on that MACD. So I totally understand, but hopefully you had some weekly moves or something like that. The bad thing here, the rough part about this is you have good sellers in here. Um, and then you do have a negative MACD. So you have forms of like those little five minutes that say, Hey, I can get like a little bounce here, but you don't have that higher low. You don't have that divergence to really give you like, Hey, yeah, the probabilities are starting to shift to yeah. That two hour move is very likely to happen. Okay. So the 30, the two hours saying, Hey, if I cross up, I can go all the way up to four 58, 70 without failure. You know, you got to have that management of risk. Got to have the managing of the trade in case you get screwed, have that plan. But as of right now, the 30 minute is pretty deep here. So I think you have a little bit of time for that 30 minutes to give you a hint, but this is Tesla, right? That's why I wanted to mention this. This is Tesla, right? And you had a divergence right here, technically of a very flat divergence right here. So can this turn around right now and just go there? Yeah. Uh, what's the safer way in my opinion? Hey, we take out this level, right? We do something like this. And then you say, okay, I can ride that up to potentially the weekly expected. So two hour confirms here. It would suggest a new high is very probable for Tesla in this move. So a high above 444. [01:49:47] Speaker 2: Does that make sense? Yeah. [01:49:55] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:49:55] Speaker 2: That's what's up. J. Lo. [01:49:57] Speaker ?: What's up? [01:49:58] Speaker 2: Hey, that's great. J. Lo. I'm glad to be back for the live show. I'm glad to be back, man. hey that's great j-law i'm glad to be back for the live show i'm glad to be back man grandpa how's that grandpa how was that oh shoot i think grandpa was asking about meta right or i'm sorry asking about tesla right [01:50:32] Speaker 1: i'm good you laughing it's been a while hope the girls are good man yeah we're starting to finally be able to you know baby girl she's just over what she's over it's over three months now [01:50:42] Speaker 2: wait she's over she's over i'm like doing math wrong she is no she's over three months now right am i dumb uh february [01:51:01] Speaker 1: oh she's four months now oh she's four months i don't even know uh she's doing fantastic she's more we got her into a kind of a rhythm and so i'm hoping to like i said i tried to try my best by summer to bring back the live show that we did for so long we did for like what a year and a half years and uh people really enjoy it so and and i hope that it is the most helpful thing i really think live video is so helpful because you get to ask in real time some certain things and we get to look at stuff together [01:51:37] Speaker 2: hey thanks chris denira i appreciate you thanks for saying that man means a lot [01:51:44] Speaker 1: i hope i hope i'm getting slowly slowly better at articulating like expressing my views on markets i really do thanks blue collar appreciate you buddy great yes okay grandpa okay okay all right grandpa i know i feel i feel like i feel like it's like some way i'm like all right grandpa all right grandpa well [01:52:12] Speaker 2: that's dude i'm mad i'm tired of this grandpa that's the that's the meme is that from holes or something you're welcome grandpa i hope you have a great day and i i hope you're uh i hope your grandkids are [01:52:33] Speaker 1: blessed all right you already are you have grandkids you already are you know being the parent part's the hard part [01:52:41] Speaker 2: but you obviously we're a parent at some point so kudos to you vix is gonna lag behind on this uh vix suggests we should go higher [01:53:02] Speaker 1: that's the uh probability starting to shape up for volatility that's why we were talking about that 76283 they are i'm spoiled oh that's fantastic man warms my heart [01:53:15] Speaker 2: dude love it [01:53:24] Speaker 1: yeah it feels like feels like every day the kids are always like can we go grandma can we go grandpa it's like can we go to where there's a little bit like pretty much no rules can we go there my two-year-old iwm's high iwm already did the two-hour pullback which is pretty crazy and kind of pulled back in here to give decent structure not bad it's not over yet old gap there tag and daily move though very nice 30 minute curls up kind of in a weird spot for the macd just that in between zone that's kind of a weird spot hey kudos to you kudos to you if you took iwm uh there wasn't much on it though you probably got to be doing the day trades i hope iwm reaches up here reverses and then the spy like follows it later that would be nice but i'm still i'm gonna be patient here i think that this is still very probable not shorting i know that's me personally you guys gotta do what you gotta do i still think that whether it happens here curls up whether it goes up curls down here curls up i think that this still the second curl up will be the easier opportunity at least for where we're at right now i kind of missed out in here because man things have been going haywire back then i was gonna i was actually trying to do live video for may um things just things go haywire man with two kids you live in the same house hey so they're always they're always with no rules huh feels like spiral hit 766 and iwm 295 for now i kind of agree with you well obviously we agree because you said iwm 295 i still think that that has to happen first i still think that this needs to happen first before we see that disruption and that's how i know when people come in here they're not watching the context of the video right always i'll pull back entry you still might get it you still might get it uh it just might be it might be very brief i don't know how you trade it might just be brief because the entry you might get is like uh we just barely tap above here right and then you come down like this you can kind of see a little bit of something here that could extend you up to that move or even the weekly we could get past that 297 as well whoever said 295 atticus attacusa yeah that 295 technically you could get to 297 but um yeah i don't know if this would take place pretty volatile for that to happen we'll see it's iwm it can't happen i just uh yeah execute man that two hour curls up though right to that move [01:56:35] Speaker 2: and that's why i trade options still haven't hit daily but new high here [01:56:47] Speaker 1: ah see the green do you see why the the entire beginning of the video well not the entire but a big portion of the beginning of the video was talking about this kind of moment now this can still play out right we're still holding what look at this still holding this you got to squeeze through still very much so holding that so this can be the trick and trap that being said which direction is the probability pointing if this confirms in 14 minutes and just is green right here it's still saying this is more probable until you see a change so as of this bar in 14 minutes if we stay the same the probabilities here will change and the technically the reversal signal will be violated at that time oh dang he live what up super hornet how you doing buddy thinking of some fridays zero dt for the day ah it sounds fun oh it sounds fun maybe i'll do it with you maybe i'll do it with maybe i'll do a friday one no yeah no yeah maybe we'll see i try really hard to think of my plan and not let you guys get me excited live video got me excited all the time they're like do this and then they'd point out something great you guys do point out some great things uh some great stocks to pay attention to some good reversals and it would make me go like yeah i'll do that hey things have been uh getting better i'll say that i'll say it that way i mean obviously things are good man super blessed super like i have you think about it i have a beautiful life i have two beautiful girls um you know we get to take them to the zoo and stuff like that we have a very we have a nice home i have a beautiful office now um that my kids can come and actually sit on the couch and even watch shows like she was sick yesterday and i could still film a youtube video if she's watching on the couch and stuff just sometimes you guys might hear some stitch or or lilo and stitch or some cars in the background because i got to keep her distracted so i can film but um but man like you know you go through you go through times where life's a little bit uh difficult it's just a little harder but it doesn't mean it's not good you know bro you still shorting dude what dude people come in here and say things and i'm just like what like what do you do you look at the thumbnail and think that's the context of the video anyway i'm glad for the i'm glad for the people who you know don't have the uh attention span of shorts and tick tock i am thankful for that no uh i know and i'll just you know i don't want to talk like that towards people that's not right um no i have not shorted this market at all i have not shorted one time i didn't short through this even at all i didn't short through this the last trade i had was literally from here to here maybe just below the gap and then life started to get crazy and i said i want to wait for the obvious maybe two hour obvious pullback or day and then we went flat and i was busy with personal things darn just like i said to our buddy who said hey i was taking my kids to uh to i was taking my kids to school ah i missed my entry i want to remind you that's a good thing you think i'm upset that i spent time helping my wife in here but no i've said countless times i ain't shortened this thing until i see major macro signals that potentially confirm and then i'll look for potential you know negative trends no i will not be shorting this market i appreciate you joining the live show to clear that up just so you just so we clear it up you know if you if you look at thumbnails and stuff hey sometimes the thumbnails yeah sometimes what i think is going to happen is what's very probable to happen but when i say that the very probable thing can happen that doesn't mean it's a hundred percent nothing in the market is a hundred percent that's why we always give both sides and our both sides was if the 30 minute curls up especially before making a new low right here which it is trying to curl up right now then you keep doing the bullish things you go to 76283 as of right now with no violation here what is likely to happen chat let's just shut up super hornet oh man um what's likely to happen chat based on what we see is this a violation of the trade if you were going to short which i've said multiple times be cautious shorting a bull bull bull thing happened in front of you this is very bullish stuff hey you still owe me money for that password i heard a guy with an american what it means breakout right so here's the thing i think i think breakout's a fine term now you want this to happen if you're a bull right so whoever came in said we're shorting everything all the time one i just have to tell you you are incorrect um we we literally have not said that once i've actually advocated to not do that a lot of the time um the the other thing is if you're a bull you want this to get taken out this right here get that taken out bam all right squeeze get that squeeze up to that weekly expected move then you have to reset 30 minute divergence right you have weakness and momentum you fail we get you know data today and stuff like that we got jolts okay cool oh positivity positivity we come up here we hold that divergence point be cautious if we can hold up in these areas squeeze through then we can reset and maybe set that trap a little bit higher then we get that two hour to pull back is the two hour am i thinking that we're going to crash down someone who watched the full context of yesterday's video have i been saying that the two hour charts suggest we're going to cross down and uh and crash or have we been pointing out that iwm is very likely to get to where first and set up for two hour reverse signals which one [02:03:18] Speaker 2: go ahead don't don't let me tell you let people who actually watch the context of the video tell you [02:03:28] Speaker 1: because if you come into my chat and you tell me this is what this is this is my analysis also you said i said two hour pullback that's two hour pullback but it's not about being right like that's the thing too it's just like it's managing your money that's all it is reversal signal up by the annual expected move is where we think the trap is the true trap like the bigger trap i think is up by that annual expected move definitely been saying going up first thank you for that i appreciate that reach up for the move and look for reversals after divergence yes we can get a two hour pullback any time before then do we have to get the hey chat do we have to get a pullback could could i be wrong and we could squeeze through that line are we going to short everything just because we get to a line no if we squeeze further and this resets we look for a pullback on the two hour chart we look for us to potentially go higher there's still a trade set up in the positive direction right it's just right now you are at a time where if you set up those reversal signals by next week you have some risk but if we can squeeze through right now you can reset that and either way you're probably going to get a two hour swing trade so really the next good trade in my opinion not being a day trader is two hour pulls back bam next good trade or you can draw it up in multiple ways you can go like this you can go like this now once we get there you're going to start to hear me talk different but we could do it here we could do it here we could do it here we could do it here we could do it here and then i'll start to talk more risky right there's no reversal signal here and i've said that multiple times and i've cleared up people who say potentially that there's multiple point that is not my opinion right the argument here would be that there's multiple point divergences and it's way too extended across in my opinion so my opinion is the next opportunity for me based on my how i do things right because i'm not a zero dt guy i'm not a weak guy some most of the time i'm not a two-week guy anymore i'm a four-week guy all right cool i like to see a two-hour move and it might take only a week but i'm still going to buy four weeks out in case it takes a longer period of time and i'm going to target these lines here i am not looking for anything down here for a trade yet for a profit taking trade yet that's just not in my that's not in my playbook right now we are way too positive on the macd we violated divergence as we extended across the way more likely scenario here is bam and we could do that anywhere in here but i am not going to chase a high hoping we get up to the weekly expected move and that's my personal choice you guys can trade however you would like to trade that's this is not what this is about this is to help you understand how markets move over time and potential good decision making a good decision i believe for myself is to wait and i said that after i got out down here do you think you think i'm bummed that i missed out on all this no because i was helping my family the entire time i was helping my wife she was going nuts it's helping my daughter who broke her leg it's like come on dude it's this ain't this ain't about winning money and being greedy and stuff this is about priorities and trading allows you that's why i'm so thankful for these things that's why i'm so thankful uh to be here with you guys and stuff because i get to at the drop of a hat if something goes wrong i get to get off here and go help it's great [02:07:25] Speaker 2: look at the qqq and smh we can look at grumpy grumpy is that a dog dang that's a fluffy dog you got there [02:07:35] Speaker 1: and that looks like that dog that dog goes to the hair salon that's a that's a that dog smells good and i know it what's my favorite stocks and recommendations uh really liked target but i don't i don't know actually we did talk about target let's uh let's do target and then we'll go over to the actually let's do cues for grumpy real quick the cute dog got me then we can talk about target uh target was my last investment uh play and i that we let everyone know about anyway uh the cues the analysis here on the cues is very similar to the spy and a very clear thing here is you have a lot of room to that center line for the macd a lot of positivity with a new high so to say that this is going to happen all of a sudden i don't i don't see that right now if you start to see that and then you get a lower high i might agree that we could see more but for now for right now you would say we are at a risky point for 2026 being at that 7 48 35 that's your annual expected move but remember the spy has a lot of room to its expected move so the cues can blow that out for a little bit of time so the spy can get there those are a few key points to to see there a lot of room to the center line means this could just be a pullback and the thing that tells us even more so that this is highly potential to be a pullback is because this extended across so much and violated the last divergence point here so that tells us that we have to be very open to divergences being created in the near price action this doesn't have to stop now right we do the same thing over here right it can be here it can be up here they can make triple divergence you got to be on your toes so for the cues my assessment here with the 30 minute divergence going into today is that we have a reversal signal that suggests that the two hour pullback is very probable we have started to violate that i believe for the spy we'll see if that confirms in about two minutes if that confirms in two minutes the probabilities for the time being with the information we have flips and so it would flip for the cues as well in my opinion that means that we can reach up to the daily expected move if you reach up to this daily expected move and you can hold the divergence in the near term intact for the 30 minute chart these divergence points right here bam bam bam you don't violate this one across like that then you still have that divergence there and the market is still at risk of seeing just a two hour pullback not a crash a two hour pullback that two hour pullback could just be sideways that two hour pullback could be a little bit of a retracement like two percent three percent i don't know one percent but i don't know the future but the 30 minute chart here is still saying hey we're at risk okay but when that curls up for the spy it means pay attention to bullishness and that will be the attempt from the bulls if the bulls can get that to squeeze through then wipe all this out wipe this out wipe this out just like we did right here that told that's why our analysis over the weekend suggested that we go make this high is because of this point right here if that is able to take place then we would curl up and squeeze through violating those points meaning we would have to reset and the momentum is no longer weak but you actually have strong momentum again okay that's a very long way to say if the 30 minute curls up to here and fails you still have the reversal signals for a two hour pullback and then we go higher um the other the bullish way to say this is if we squeeze through though then we reset and the 30 minute can continue and we might get that two hour pullback later oh shoot let me uh wifey's home hold on let me uh let me go help her out [02:11:33] Speaker 2: remind me of these points okay i'll be right back [02:11:56] Speaker 1: oh my gosh it's um they just came in it was like baghdad uh my wife did ask me to uh help her out guys uh she asked me to help her out uh normally so these live shows i want to talk about timing and then i do have to take off i always take off if the wifey needs me all right that's just how my that's my priorities so um right now queues have it intact spy has it intact um remember that yes this can be violated as it is uh not okay so you need another positive bar here so technically this has not given the management of the trade fully yet uh so if this confirms back down you still have the reversal signal oh gosh i was running out there these girls that came in is scary um so timing for these streams guys i'm gonna most likely it will be monday tuesday wednesday i will be on the live stream will be up right at the open or before just before the open but we will start to talk about charts usually right after the open or just before so a little bit of 15 minute gap there um if i'm ever doing something or going to be 10 15 minutes late i will put the live stream up and i will try to tell you guys that in some message on the screen there lives are back for at least monday tuesday wednesday is what i can do okay and that will go from the open and then i'm going to try for my timing that is 8 30 to 11. so i'm going to try my best to do 8 30 to 11 but just note like today sometimes i will have to get off 30 minutes early sometimes some things might be happening or i might have extra time and i could do a little extra 30 minutes or so all right so some so expect that like 10 30 and i know timing might be different so pretty much you get like two and a half hours two and a half hours on average say two to three hours in the morning is what i can do so that's what i've tried to do okay kids take care lucas thanks brother still have some t-shirt ideas oh yeah that's right with the trade like water t-shirts heck yeah yeah try to try to email me whenever you got it that's that's very cool thank you for that yeah thank you guys so much for joining i know it's kind of our first time back and i'm sorry if you're joining towards the end of the stream hopefully this was able to help some people in directing how this market wants to move but remember we are not suggesting some kind of super crash right this second we actually think that the queues in iwm need to reach up to those annual expected moves first but a two-hour pullback looks still probable as the next opportunity to potentially get a position so thank you guys so much i really do appreciate it and mustafa i have i appreciate you uh coming in and saying something at the end first time seeing me live appreciate it man i will see you guys tomorrow at the open and hopefully tomorrow i will be able to stay on fully two uh two and a half hours but for today we got to go help the family so i hope you guys put those priorities towards family as well thank you guys have a great rest of your day good luck trading and if i see any information that seems like it needs to be posted patreon members have those notifications on thank you guys peace out