bear trap? STOCK MARKET LIVE!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: good morning and welcome to today's live show we'll get started in just a bit but if you are clicking on this and you are not watching live that's perfectly fine there's some good info in today's video we know there will be but at the same time you can join us during our live shows we do live shows monday through wednesday so monday tuesday wednesday from the open for two to three hours just so you know the schedule if you would like to subscribe guys i'm going to use the restroom real quick and then i will get things started [00:00:56] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. [00:02:56] Speaker 1: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. That means we can figure this out before actually collapsing. So something very critical here, if you want this market to like heavy bottom, and when I say heavy bottom, I mean this signal can turn down daily charts. This daily thing could actually cause a daily reaction to the upside, okay, we are still positive, so we have to watch for those things, but as we go back over to volatility, we can see the 30 minutes suggesting, hey, lower high still needs to get to negative territory, but we do see some good signals here suggesting we are a little bit closer to that center line. So the 2-hour is at risk of a little bit, so the 2-hour is at risk of crossing to the downside. So the 2-hour is at risk of crossing to the downside, but because of the distance here, that could just be a 2-hour kind of dead cap bounce like we were talking about yesterday for the market, and then volatility turns back up. But if we're able to see a squeeze here, we would like to see that squeeze take us all the way down to at least that 1683. That would be a good point to watch here, because if you're able to break down for that extended period of time, then any kind of reaction might lean towards what? Lean towards lower high as you try to go negative. So I wanted to point that out. You still do have to pay attention to tricks and traps out there. You are at a lot of monthly expected moves, all right? So the 30-minute here is going to be very important. If you are looking at this and going, hey, I want to take this based off of the divergence on the RSI, management of the trade could be on the 15-minute. If the 15-minute crosses down in negative territory, then it's kind of hard for your trade to keep going up potentially to that weekly expected move. The same thing could be said about the Qs. See that that is negative. The same thing could be said about IWM. That is not negative right now. That is pushing to the upside. And the same thing could be said when we were talking about something like Amazon, right? Amazon trying to confirm to the downside right now. That will warrant a potential reaction if that confirms in about 11 minutes. And the thing about that is if it's down to grab this, you just say, I want to be safe for a period of time. And then if that curls back up, right, we curl back up with maybe another point of divergence on the 15 after testing the lows. Then you just say, I'm going to be risk-averse, and I'm going to put that risk back on. So that's how I'm looking at it for now for things like Amazon. If this crosses down, it's not a bullish sign. It's not saying that the 30-minute is going up. It's saying that that's highly potential to go down. So that's how I like to manage that because we do have some solid divergences all across Amazon, and we mentioned it in the last night's video. No, we mentioned it over on Patreon. I just wanted to go through the management here for Amazon specifically, but that can be utilized right now for the SPY, for the QQQs. What this means is if the 15-minute cross is down here for the SPY, technically, it does mean test the low and potentially go make a new one, right? So if we're going to go make a new low, and I'm saying the market's got some kind of bear trap here, well, if this crosses to the downside, then that bear trap either isn't fully complete yet, right? It's going to find another point, or the bear trap's not there, and you can wipe out through the floor. So making sure that you know that this curling down in negative territory does mean a negative move is possible and actually probable at that point when you see confirmation, those are some critical things going into today's session. I believe it was, and the volatility as well, right? Any time that we see this start to go wrong, then we know that a test of the lows is something we should really expect. Yeah, I think that's pretty much like what we're looking for today in a nutshell, to be totally honest with you. Like, that seems like it. Now, yesterday we had a crazy day, though, man, going directly up to the, what was it, daily expected upside move. We hit daily, we break through daily downside move. We break through the second standard deviation to get down to what? We go to the weekly expected move, and then we rebound and landed back in the 68% zone. That's pretty impressive, to be honest. Let's keep this on the 15-minute, just so we're monitoring any kind of management of anything here. And I will have Amazon up over here, just to kind of click back and forth to it. Because this is the one that I shouted out, because we're below that monthly expected move. You can see it right here. So we'll have to see if that proves itself in the next eight minutes or so. Morning, time for coffee. I don't know, I haven't been, I haven't, I think it's the coffee we got. We got, like, a new coffee. And I just, I'm not a fan, so I haven't been drinking coffee the last few days. What if I didn't know? Good morning, good morning, Fritz. How you doing, brother? Bring on volatility. Gar! What are you, pirate? Yeah, just dress up in a pirate suit. Start a live show, dress up in a pirate suit. Lose every trade and go, gar! Gar! Pay-er! Yeah, Amazon's still hovering at that 0.61. I want to, Fritz. I wish, that's the only thing. I don't, I get contacted constantly about, like, stocks that want to sponsor or, like, you know, it has something to do with, like, they want your membership money. I never put out any kind of sponsorship, though. I just, I don't like forking out and being like, hey, these are great memberships when I, obviously, I don't have their membership. If it was a membership I trust, I might do it. But at the same time, I would rather do things like coffee, like energy drink or, like, even even good water, like, you know, like, something cool. 10 points for the dodgeball club. Dude, I remember dodgeball. We, like, watched that movie and immediately all of us kids started running around playing dodgeball in our backyards, dude. That movie, dodgeball, has so many, uh, probably has so much to do with all the brain damage that we have as kids now. We can't dodge a wrench, dodge a ball. Oh, gosh. So we'll see if this is able to confess. Yeah, it's unconfirming on the MACD. I'm just following that MACD. If I see red there, we know that it's red here. If I see red there, that's a management for the trade. Same could be said with the SPY on the 15-minute, right? If we see red here on the MACD, start to prove on the histogram that we would say, yeah, you are definitely at risk of daily move, obviously, but, uh, deeper prices being a retest of the lows. [00:11:23] Speaker 2: My name's Luke. [00:11:25] Speaker 1: Grubby Doodle, I saw you yesterday. I love the picture of the doodle. Hair looks fantastic. Absolutely fantastic. That's a blowout right there, right? Uh, we can go look at gold. I don't mind looking at GLD for a bit. Uh, kind of in a weird spot. So we were talking about risk here of trying to say, like, oh, some kind of big recovery is coming. That was the overall talk with gold. And we overall were like, hey, the, the risk is you fail the reversal signals, right? We failed them. We attempted even the higher low signal as well. Failed that as well. You're pointing straight down. This means continuation for more selling, right? We might talk about bounces and things like that, but note that that means you're bouncing in like a serious negative, kind of a serious negative trend. So unless you have great information on like 30-minute charts to suggest this is like somehow going to bounce on the two hour, like we're suggesting with the Amazon, with SPY right now, gold actually never confirmed any kind of divergence and didn't even have it on the relative strength. So if it doesn't have it on the relative strength, it doesn't really even have it on the MACD that's confirmed, then you're always at risk of just seeing more of what you're getting right now. If you would have confirmed this and then we could climb for a moment, then you can get some kind of two hour move, but that two hour move would still be negative. So this is what I, I'm just explaining this further, just so people understand how negative move, negative trends continue. It's just, it's exactly the same as a positive trend. I won't talk differently about bullishness than bearishness when you are in a negative trend. We're saying the exact same things. When's the next opportunity? Well, the next opportunity is easier to the upside is usually what we're saying with markets. But for gold, you might say the next opportunity is easier to the downside. Now, if this is able to randomly figure stuff out, we've talked about this with gold before. If this is able to extend too high to where this starts to push into positive territory, even just a little bit, then you'll start to pay attention to what? He'll start to really open the door for higher lows. But if you're rotating down in negative territory, you always want to be cautious because you don't know if that next move is going to seriously go negative. So until you see two-hour divergence, until you see a two-hour higher low, it's very unlikely for the daily chart to start curling up. And the other part about this is we looked at the daily chart yesterday and we were like, this thing is starting to just teeter over, right? We tried to really figure stuff out in here with that higher low. Notice you're close to the center line. This is your attempt to go positive. We fail it. So what happens when you fail it and you're never able to confirm back up on this MACD? Well, you keep failing, right? You keep going negative and you can see a random bounce at some point, but this is so negative. There's no divergence here on your MACD or RSI. It's way too extended across to suggest anything here. You have too many trend moves to suggest that. So even if you get some kind of random, because we don't have two-hour signals, random daily push where you're able to get up to that center line, if you fail that at any point, you'll just continue down. So this was a long, drawn-out way to say the 30-minute had a reverse signal. It failed. So now 30-minute is saying continuation. The two-hour is just straight-up negative. So even if that bounces, it still would say the lower prices is the more probable thing until we see it go positive territory for sure, right? There's too much risk. It's kind of like catching a falling knife, right? You always think you're the guy that can call exactly when the bottom's going to be in and the two-hour is going to turn up and blast off to the upside and there's going to be a big trap exposed. Unless you have exact reasons that are provable and consistent to do things like that, which I'm saying because I think almost no one has that unless you have info from like the big guys, the top 10%, which if you do, tell the chat, tell us your info, you know, phone a friend for us, but it would just be kind of guessing. I don't like guessing because guessing is kind of like gambling, right? So what we would rather see here is like even a daily move like this, you go, wow, I missed out. And then it pulls back and you're sitting there sad and you see a little like daily pullback or something like that and it curls up in positive territory and you're not ready for that Harry Potter, right? That seems to be the better case to pay attention to for gold right now. The other one would be, hey, do we kind of do this like light flagging type thing and we just fail? And then over here we set up a divergence. Hey, that might be a good time. Let's look at the weekly though, since we are looking at those daily charts. And I don't think you are wrong to be looking at gold right now based on what I see on the weekly chart. You have a weekly chart really close to the center line, but you see no hints. You see nothing from the daily, from the two hour, and the 30 minute just failed. So if all that stuff is failing, right as this is in negative territory, what do we look for? If we're saying this weekly is going to turn up, we did this a lot yesterday. If we're saying the weekly is going to turn up, we look for reversal signals while we're by the center line. We don't have them. So if we don't have them, then this right now is not probable to turn to the upside at this point, right? We would need to wait a few days. We would need to wait maybe even two weeks to get that daily to create the divergence of that. Okay. So I really wanted to go through gold pretty heavily because I saw the failure of it yesterday and I saw how close we are to the center line here. And then I'm reminding myself of it this morning and I'm going, well, if you don't have reversal signals while something's by the center line, then just because something's by the center line doesn't mean it's an opportunity, right? You need more reasons than that. If you're saying being by the center line is a reason, that's one. I like to have three to five, right? At least three. But most of the time these days, you know, with markets, how they've been very trick and trappy and things like that. I really like four or five. I really like to be like, yeah, we need a few reasons here to believe that this is worth risking money behind right now. If my reason is just, hey, the weeklies by the center line, you know, maybe investing wise, if you're like, I'm going to hold forever kind of thing for GLD or gold, something gold, you would just say, okay, well, it's cheaper now. All right. Investing wise, you might just be like, hey, it peaked up here. That's a 25% discount. I'm pretty comfortable with that. You know, because if you do that over time, you notice that that kind of works. If you just kind of like say, oh, this is curling up. Okay. Invest every single time it comes down. I just invest every single time it comes down. I invest. And then guess what? You have money in here. You have money in here and you have money in here. And now it goes like this. And that's just the end of the trade. So all of your money at some point will grow by what? 53%. And then if you're watching things very carefully on the daily chart, you can see that the daily lower high came in and then you can mitigate your risk in this asset. Yeah. Okay. I like what Law said there, just because I'm reading the first comment. It's like buying the 200 MA on SPY. Exactly. It's like pulling this guy up, putting that on there and saying, okay, that's where I buy every time. It's more, these type of things are more just to get a decent price, to know you're getting a decent price. Hey, we got overextended to the upside. We're coming back down into a median. Maybe that median for you is the 200. And you go, that's kind of a middle price between where we bottomed, where we topped. Okay. This is a good price. It's still in a positive, you know, you don't even do that, right? We're saying you just buy off of the 200. It can work long term for an investing strategy, you know, because markets do go up a lot of the time, but if you're trying to actually dig into it, if you're trying to be more dynamic with trading, then you would need more skills than to say, you know, or if you, if you're not holding this very long term, then you would be waiting. All right. That was just, that was great. I think that's good to really look at. Let's go back over to this 15 minute real quick for the SPY. Just make sure we have no, see, look at that. It doesn't confirm down. No reason to manage anything yet. You see, Amazon might be giving you that reason though. [00:19:57] Speaker 2: So Amazon gives reason to manage. There you go. [00:20:09] Speaker 1: You can see here from Amazon, this curl down pretty much means what? Well, we're negative. So what do we do? We test the low. We potentially even go make a new one. I don't know if that new one's going to stop here with a divergence point yet. I don't know if it's going to blast through the floor. I don't know if it's going to turn around right away, right? Just testing the lows. But I know that this being negative opens the door to this thing happening. And if that goes against me in any way, then I react. If it turns back around, hey, I might even get a cheaper price over here. That's all there is to it. AVGO, we can do AVGO. We haven't looked at that really this week. Let's do this on the other charts. Let's show you guys on the charts with all the data up. So AVGO here, I think the important charts are, okay, 30-minute divergence, extended, but there. This is kind of wonky here. So you might make something in the near price, like really near price action based on this little moment. That's a big maybe, though, because you're pretty tight here with this MACD at the moment. So pretty simple here. 30-minute curls down. Test the logo. Make a new one. If you don't make a very quick divergence, then you are at risk of wiping that out. The two-hour chart as of right now is negative. But you are below the monthly expected move. So that means that it is very heavily probable that you will see a trap forming here. And we do see trap signals, right? We do see that 30-minute divergence. And it hasn't completely failed. Maybe it's failing on the 15-minute, though, for a trade. But it hasn't completely failed here, right? So the two-hour chart, you still have signals currently intact that suggests that a move to the upside does make sense. And because we have a monthly expected move, we can have more of a reason, right? You are outside of the low probable zone, less than halfway into the month. You can get some kind of two-hour reaction to the upside that then potentially even fails. And maybe you do come down to these type of areas, right? But then you'll notice that would take you into what? Maybe like VIX-piration? And then you could curl to the upside. So from here, though, you're just seeing, hey, do I get a two-hour move? Do I get a two-hour move? Or is this going to fail? It's actually pretty dang simple here. Now, the daily chart here is what's scary for something like AVGO. The daily chart here is suggesting that we have some significant divergence, some closer to the center line. You notice it's closer to the center line? That makes it important. It's starting to try to go negative, right? So if it's trying to go negative here, then we can see that we're going into a negative trend. That means this two-hour, the daily, they need to figure it out or else this weekly crosses down. And what's the big problem with this weekly chart for AVGO? The weekly chart for AVGO has divergence as well. You can see that from your MACD, from your RSI. We are a little bit close to the center line, which means, yes, we can make triple divergence. We obviously can. And I do think we pay attention to that for something like AVGO. For a semiconductor or anything, I would say that, but at the same time, if this crosses down, it does suggest there is a signal that it says I don't want to be in this for upside if the weekly crosses down at that moment, right? Just because this right now has divergence would suggest that this is possible. Right? So we see right here, very important, left head, right shoulder. This door will be opened if you see this weekly MACD crossing down. The RSI is already saying like, hey, it's open. The price action right now is saying is open, but we have to see how the weekly bar closes in two and a half days. So judging by the actual market, though, like the stock market, this is still a heavy probability where we just kind of weekly pull back and then you curl to the upside one more time. We would pay attention to both at this moment. It's very nice, though. Day traded. Yeah, we looked at SMH yesterday, but we can look at it today as well. SMH on the 30-minute showing the same divergences, right? You see that? So we went over this yesterday showing those potential divergences. If you reject here, you look for those divergences to form. We form it on the MACD. We form it on the RSI at the same time. So what this is doing is allowing you to get closer to the center line so you can go positive, right? You can go into a positive trend. And so that means that we're very likely to do what? Curl up the two-hour chart. If we look at the positioning here, it's in that spot where it's like, yes, it is definitely positive. Like, it can get there. Just like a day and a half of buying will get you positive. So what we want to watch for is still, do we make the lower high because we are negative? Do we make the lower high because we took out critical levels, right? We took out critical levels. Do we see the two-hour climb up, retest into this area here, those bulk of those sellers from Friday, just like we did right here? Do we do it again? And do they step up? Because if this curls up and it curls down really close to the center line, then it's a sure thing that you're pretty much going to test the low, go make a new one. Right? You're very close to negative territory at that point. And that, weirdly enough, is the same thing for the SPY. But the SPY is at more risk of that because, look, it's deeper, deeper in negative territory. So AVGO is like, hey, yeah, still pay attention. I can squeeze. I can go very positive here. While the SPY is starting to still say, like, yeah, it's a probability. But the way higher probability for SPY is just to do this. With the signals we're currently seeing, with being at the monthly move, with a tag of the weekly, doing something like this makes total sense. And that's why we're following the 30-minute chart very heavily. [00:26:12] Speaker 2: Good morning, Grandpa. Hope the kiddos are doing good. That's a scurvy dog. I don't know. [00:26:20] Speaker 1: I don't, uh, I feel like, like, movies now are a little, eh. Everything seems too easy to read. Me and my wife said that last night, movies-wise, because we were talking about movies earlier. Movies-wise, I feel like we can pretty much guess what's going to happen in 15 minutes almost every time. AVGO was good, Grandpa. Thank you. I appreciate you giving me some thanks there. Just let me know that the question was answered thoroughly. It's a, it's a, it's, it's an interesting look. I mean, even second standard deviation for the monthly would probably put you not breaking these lows, right? I think second standard deviation for this, I have add SMH on here, 300, 380, like right here. Yeah, that'd be too deep. I think that'd be way too deep. I don't think, I mean, you can test this, literally test that wick, that tiny wick down there, and the buyers be there, because look at the blast off. But you would rather not wipe all of this out. So I don't, I don't think AVGO goes down to second standard deviation. I think, I mean, it's obviously a possibility with being in negative trends, with being, breaking the monthly expected move, but 300, to tag that, that would mean AVGO is pretty much like, yeah, we're going to do something like this. And based on what we're seeing across the board, I don't think that that's, I mean, just Apple alone kind of makes you second guess that. Yes, it has a weekly divergence, but it's wiped it out on the RSI. And two, it's currently just in a daily pullback. So you notice that this could go down to its second standard deviation, and still just be a good positive move. So we'll find out. We don't have any two hour divergence, but Apple would be a good one to keep on your radar, I think. Because if Apple makes a two hour divergence in some fashion like this, and we see that towards like OPEX or something, and you see that confirmed, that means the daily can start to kind of reverse back up. We'll watch for that. I still would really like to see the weekly pullback personally, but Apple does cause you, Apple's a big stock, right? So Apple does cause you to kind of just be like, hmm, I'll be open to one more daily push. We'll be open to it. That's another one. AMD, I think it was Google. Was it Google? Yeah, Google daily. See how the dailies piled up right here? Two hour, kind of get that little rejection there. So is this like doing the 30 minute things it needs to do, pretty much? And weirdly enough, this is crazy too. You see this little tiny divergence in here, and you see it right here as well, between these points. See how it's pointed up? But then the price action here pointed down. So this is like kind of your signal of like, is the two hour going to reject? And you're getting confirmation trying to go positive. Google, with confirmation of this, would attempt to actually go positive. So Google may attempt to get to that weekly expected move, actually. Maybe even by Friday. We'll see. Yeah, these type of things, while the two hours in this weird kind of like half spot. It's pretty low. Actually, now in a second, I look at it again compared to old times. It's pretty low. Yeah, so we're probably sitting down here for a bit. Now, the tricky thing would be this. The tricky thing would be, we obviously, we all see this shape, right? We all see this, right? All right, we all see it. The tricky thing would be, what if we do this, and we confirm down, everyone thinks it's a bloodbath. And then we just do that. And the two hour is able to make divergence across. That is something that's popped in my head a few times. I wanted to share it, see what you guys think about it. Like, hey, everyone sees this head and shoulders. So what if we give them the head and shoulders, but then create a reversal signal and rip it away from them? I try to think sometimes, in my critical thing, when I'm just staring at charts, I try to think, like, what's a scenario if I was in, like, a market maker sheet? If I was trying to trick people, like, what would be the scenario? Like, what would I really do? I think that's what I would do. Genuinely think that's what I would do. I would be like, let's let the head and shoulders confirm and then violate it. And then completely reject and completely wipe out that... [00:31:02] Speaker 2: That type of look. Do we know what ticker SpaceX got? I don't. [00:31:12] Speaker 1: I haven't even looked at the chart. I try to think sometimes. Yeah. Yeah. Sometimes I try to use my brain. We can look at, what is that, Rocket Lab or something? The Rocket Lab. See, this one at least has something to go off of. It's very weak. But at least it's something. And you notice, you never really came back to here. And we're kind of piling up. So you can keep going down, obviously. Right? But if at all we ever see that breakout kind of come above this level, start to come back, retest. You could probably get there. I really want to look at the daily chart here because this is probably by the center line. Yeah. Okay. So this is actually not bad. I actually really like the fact that you're bringing this up. I like this one. The dailies by the center line. You have forms of two-hour divergence. I do not think they are strong. I do not think they are strong. But you're tapping into good buyers. All of this in here is pretty much good buyers. So a daily move to the upside. Daily comes back. A daily move to the upside again. And then we go reset signals or something. That would be very, very cool. Based on the state of the market, always watching for lower highs right now. You are at risk of weekly pullbacks. But you do have this tiny divergence right here and this tiny one right here. That's pretty small. I would say that that... I would say I wouldn't be like, oh, this is a reason and this is a reason for this one. I think these two together can be used as like one reason. And then you'd really want to see like monthly move. I think the daily being by the center line is something to pay attention to for sure. I think the fact that you're tapping into good buyers is a pretty good reason. But all that has to happen here for this to fail or like fake out is you see that two-hour move. And then it just fails and you keep going to the downside. Like, right, you kind of do this and then you go negative. You really would like to see like squeeze through, which means 30 minutes. And it just wiped out that divergence point. Not this one. Holding all of them on the MACD, but you notice you lost on the RSI. So 30 minutes still says continued downside. Which is crazy with how the MACD looks, by the way. So you're still looking for a proper... I think this one with the failures going on, with this failure here, I think you're kind of sitting going, let's let this first part of the squeeze happen. Let it back off, grab liquidity, and then go for a big one. So this way, this way too, if that two-hour move does happen and it rolls, you don't get trapped. But instead, you just wait a solid period of time. Look for that 30 minute to really go positive. Go positive. Come back to that center line. Then I can make a decision. And then we probably go for like two more pushes, so... [00:34:14] Speaker 2: It could just be a two push. So there might be a trade over here. [00:34:20] Speaker 1: If it sets up a cleaner divergence, bring it up. Bring it up again if this like... If we kind of do this today, doodle, doodle, doodle, doodle, doodle, and then we see us do that, and then we come back, like kind of do this, where you're tapering off but getting more flat. That would be better for like an earlier entry to play that two-hour move. But it's just the two-hour is so deep here that if it ever rolls, that's going to be a problem. So pretty much you have signals that if they would form on the 30-minute in the near price action, this move can, I think, be a good, decent play. But understanding that it's very negative is important as far as like position size, as far as reacting to the trade. You would say, hey, let me create that weekly range for next week. And let me say, okay, the 30-minute made those signals. Now the 30-minute or the two-hour is going to be able to get here, and I just take it all off the table. You can mentally prepare for your decision-making like well in advance just because you know this is a little bit risky of an aversion. And if it's wrong, you just go to that weekly move, you see a 30-minute pullback, and that two-hour continues. Okay, cool. That two-hour will pull back eventually and be a good opportunity. It will pull back eventually and be a good opportunity, just like we were shown with gold, right? I would feel safer about this, risking more money when this goes positive and I see some kind of pullback in positive territory. I need it to pretty much confirm, like, hey, we're going to stop the negativity. We're going to actually go positive. I think, yeah, I think that's the best thing for that one. SPY climbing as of right now. We'll see if Amazon is able to do a comeback. If that's just a test of the low, remember what we said about the 15-minute, we mitigate risk. And then we hope that that makes that tiny little divergence. We kind of hope that holds on the RSI as well. You would like to turn around right now. So if this can reconfirm, then the trade is back on, and you can see a two-hour move to the upside. Yeah, so even the 30-minute violating right now, but it's on a positive bar. So 15 minutes is still important to watch for Amazon. This confirming. Let's do the Q since the signal is cleaner there. You can actually see it on MACD and RSI at the same time. The two-hour move to the upside is pretty much becoming probable now. Whatever happened to Wolf, I did see a few reactions from Wolf. I wasn't really watching this, which is unfortunate because I was watching it for so long. I only caught a couple of good trades from way back in the day. But didn't this get like... There's a split and everything, right? So as far as Wolf looks, it's kind of looking like that gold talk we just had. You can kind of see... This is really cool, though. This right here, bam. Left head, right shoulder plays out, gets to that center line. Then we might have that opportunity, actually. As we have not seen divergence, we can pay attention to continuation. If we go too deep, then we start to look for lower high. So as of right now, though, two-hour chart is really, really getting down there. So no hints from the two-hour chart yet, but good timing just to keep on your radar, right? It's like, oh, I can keep gold. I can keep Apple. I can keep Google. [00:37:58] Speaker 2: I can keep Wolf on my radar. It's not a bad thing. Yeah, two-hour needs time there, though, for me. Wolfie boy, we were doing the short sale theory I was making, but I haven't looked at that in so long. It's like, well, if they killed 95, 93% of my value every night, [00:38:26] Speaker 1: I woke up to 20, up, down 20 grand. Yeah, see, that's no fun. Those ones are always at risk of that. Like, those stocks that are pretty small, that are still trying to function, they'll, you know, sell plenty of, they'll up the shares. Up the shares or down the shares, and it, you know, if you're on the wrong end of the hat, [00:38:48] Speaker 2: oof, rough. [00:38:53] Speaker 1: Because I'm pretty sure when we were looking at it, it had to be worth way less than that. I'm pretty sure my trade was from, like, $10 to $13 back in the day. Or, like, seven, or I think it was a big one. I think it was, like, $7 to $13. IWM looks strong-ish. That's good, because it has the reversal signal, right? And IWM is more, more closer to positive territory than, I think, the Qs. And the SPY. Yeah, definitely the SPY. IWM is the closest to positive territory. So, does IWM do this? Do we squeeze through for a bit of time? Do we reset signals? Right? Because IWM, we're still looking at this, going, when's this going to get tested? I think this will get tagged this year. Like, very, very likely that that can get tagged. If this can curl up and hold positivity, we can go tag that. I don't think you'll be watching for divergence down here. Like, I don't think you'd count that, because you did see a negative move, like, pretty good negative move. Instead, I think that would be a reset. And you'd look for it up here. But as of right now, you know, for this week, you are getting to the weekly expected move again. But you're confirming the two-hour first. So, why don't we give you, [00:40:09] Speaker 2: let's go to IWM on the other charts. Because you have pretty big weekly expected moves. We'll give you guys this level. [00:40:25] Speaker 1: just to show off kind of like what the member streams will be like in August. But we're doing it all summer long here, guys. So, IWM 294.39. So, that would mean 294.39 is really what I'm watching here. If the two-hour can confirm up and not fail on the 30-minute, not fail on the two-hour, you notice we still have room here. We're still like, oh, can we fail? Of course you can. You're getting to weekly move and starting to see resistance come in again. If the two-hour is confirming up, though, we can maybe swing all the way up to, say, 294.39 this week. And then I would suspect that we're hitting, like, some kind of 30-minute pullback to get updated weekly expected moves. If you do go like this and you just confirm down, just be aware that that will be close to the center line. So, there will be some risk. It would be like, hey, we go up here. If the two-hour crosses down, it's risky. But if we can just go up to here and get a 30-minute pullback and keep going, that would be best case. Now, that gets you really close to what, though? 294.39 gets you really close to 295.67, which is where we're kind of watching right in this area. We're going to watch for any signals around this. It is a big macro level. It is the annual expected move. So, we can see rips through that, right? Kind of treat it like, on the daily expected move, a five-minute looks like crazy down here. Well, on an annual expected move, even a two-hour chart will start to look crazy. Even a 30-minute chart might start to look crazy. But overall, you'd be like, all right, we're looking for a daily move that maybe fails. Sets up the next divergence point. If you squeeze through, then we start to use this support and we're going to continue this game. And guess what? That's what probably will take place eventually, right? I suggested a weekly pullback could happen before, right? I would love a weekly pullback before all of this, the spy being the topic here. because if we can squeeze through, that's to get the spy up to its move. We think that the real macro trap, if you're new here, if you're not subscribed, if you're just joining the live show, and you haven't watched a lot of videos on the macro side, we believe, or at least I, do think that we will see the spy hit 796.10 at some point in 2026. Whether that's a daily squeeze right now, I think that we still get the weekly pullback first. I think that we do this and we weekly pullback. I think we get some kind of test into these sellers and it fails. I think we get a test of the sellers, it fails, we come down deeper and we see some kind of divergence over here later. That's my personal opinion. I think we're going to see more volatility than what we're seeing now, but just because it's what I think doesn't mean, you know, the I think statements that I always say, those are more just, they have nothing behind them, right? And I think might have a little bit might have a few reasons, right? But until I see it proven that I can't really make a decision about it. But for now, I'm just looking at it and I'm going, hey, 30 minute divergence, two hour move to the upside, good volatility still, like kind of up by 20. Okay, cool. We do this and we curl down. Perfect. That means that volatility, my assessment is volatility will fail this signal. That's my assessment right now. I think that we fail this signal. If we do not curl back up though, do you think I'm going to be like, oh yeah, we're crashing down? No, I'll be like, hey, we failed this, we completed the signal. We actually did what we were supposed to. And then you actually go negative. So I don't think that'll take place personally. I think we're going to set up a two hour lower high for the SPY. But I'm just saying the I think thing because it's like, I will change that immediately if I see something else proven. Because if I don't change it immediately, then I'm behind. I'm immediately way behind. I'm immediately thinking with bias. [00:44:45] Speaker 2: Well, I think they had some kind of some kind of something happened with the shares for sure. Because it was only seven bucks or something when we were looking at it. Google. What about the small ones? [00:45:10] Speaker 1: SoFi, I think, had something in here. 30 minute for SoFi looked pretty cool. Just barely, actually just a double bottom potential here. Diversion's not really there. But you are closer to the center line. So still important. So two hour move to the upside is actually very plausible probable here now with the signals you got here. You're closer to the center line for the 30 minute. 30 minute goes that positive move. And guess what? We're still watching for lower highs. Because this might be an opportunity. What if we squeeze through? But you just have to know that lower high is probable here. So then you just go, okay, weekly expected move maybe this week or next week. We make a two hour move to it. If I see reversal signals there, then I'd be cautious. Yeah, daily fails here. [00:46:05] Speaker 2: Yeah, you're going to, we're going to need to do some, some tightness. We're going to need to get tight again. Okay. So you could be in this game for a while. [00:46:24] Speaker 1: If we can break above that, break through these highs, break through this, break it, come back, go again, that would be a little safer. So actually you would kind of say this, if the two hour can get up to this and pull back in some way, kind of give you what people would say, what cup and handle. We haven't said cup and handle a lot because you'll see cup and handle everywhere. It's more just like, do I see a positive move? Do I see this go positive? Does it go well positive? Even if it stops short, is that positive at this point? And do we successfully higher low? If we successfully higher low on the two hour, then the daily can actually go positive. And that would be a good thing for SoFi. Yeah, weekly scale. You might have a weekly pullback already. Oh, weekly really dropped off. Okay, so you're negative here for the weekly. I like this point that I marked off. Weekly curls up. We kind of come into this area. We see if we can figure it out. Weekly stops short, rolls into negative territory. Then that's probably bad. You're probably at least seeing this. And then we'll look for like weekly divergences. So, [00:47:42] Speaker 2: that's kind of the full breakdown there. SoFi, please go up. I think you have [00:48:05] Speaker 1: a good 30 minutes. I think you have good signals for it. And the thing about good signals, the reason you appreciate good signals is because if they're good, they usually give very obvious failures. so even if the play goes wrong, if it looks good, if it looks clean, then the rejection usually is pretty clean. So, hey guys, give me two seconds here. I'm going to go get some water. I'm like about to, like my tongue keeps getting stuck. [00:48:33] Speaker 2: I need to go get some water. Be right back. Okay. [00:48:47] Speaker ?: I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go get some water. I'm going to go [00:49:43] Speaker 1: I did end up talking to that. Well, if you heard yesterday towards the end of the stream, you might have heard like some a couple of squeals. You might think that was all my daughter. But one of those one of those happened to be my wife. She she like pot like some popped in her back shoulder. Her was it her right or left left shoulder. And now she's looking like Frankenstein. She can't turn that neck or anything. She was carrying our two year old that's a broken leg. So she has to carry her and holding baby at the same time and pop something. So if you go to yesterday's stream and you hear a squeal, a couple of squeals, one of those might be my daughter, but one of those might be my wife. So she's got crazy. She's in a lot of pain now. I always feel bad because I'm supposed to I usually try to help her every single time grab her out of the car, but I didn't see her text message yesterday. So if she does end up coming a little bit early today, we will have to hop off. I do have to help her grab baby girl now. Don't worry, that's probably an hour off from now. I know, she needs to get, well, my buddy's a chiropractor, so I'm going to give him, if the pain doesn't subside or she can't even like stretch it in the next couple of days, then she'll probably go get some needling treatment from the chiropractor to get those muscles to relax around there. Yeah, IWM is just, it's pretty much the same as the SPY, same as the Q, well, I guess the SPY is different because it's not on the MACD at the same time, but IWM has some good divergences here, some great ones that does suggest the two hour can curl up and now you're curling up. So, you confirm this yesterday on this bar right here towards 285 and now you're up towards 287.80. So, as you do that, you're saying, okay, we confirm right here, we can push through. This is why we gave the second standard deviation. So, if you're looking at IWM, the target for this, I don't like taking these personally. I don't like taking things, I like to utilize the 68% zones as profit targets. But there are a lot of reasons for IWM to go up towards that 295, if you remember the annual expected move. But if you want a critical level for this week, if you see this confirm and not reject off of the weekly, if you're willing to take something that would be seen as low probability, but high probability based on what you're seeing down here, then the signals say that this is high probability. But the weekly expected moves say, hey, you only get here like 5% of the time. Like 5% of the time you'll see a close out there. So doing that, you would just say, hey, this is something I need to consider maybe with position size. Right? Because position size, okay, okay, okay, it doesn't get there, we roll, you just go, okay, good, I'm glad that position size, I'll manage it. But also position size, if you can squeeze through, I'm sure people are still, no, they're going bullish today. I thought they would still hover up here. That might climb. Feed some kind of squeeze would be nice. Sorry, IWM. So as of right now, this, based on your charts, this, confirming in an hour and 10 minutes, this bar and what you saw underneath it towards that 285 level suggests you can squeeze up to the second standard deviation. But that is what the weekly expected moves would contradict and say that is very low probability. So your signals are saying, yes, it's high, it's a good probable thing to watch for, it's a good target for you, while at the same time, the weekly expected moves are like, that is the low probability area. AVGO does have bear trap signals, doesn't it, on the 30 minute? Didn't we look at that this morning? Yeah, it's just failing them. Ah, hasn't completely failed them, definitely did on the 15. So you're watching the 15, the 15 saying, hey, I can just keep going down. So, but if that's able to curl up, then it would say, hey, I'm going to try to go into that positive trend. So pretty wild, but yes, you do have potential reversal signals outside of [00:54:12] Speaker 2: a monthly expected move for AVGO. See, it's trying, it's trying its best, man. It's trying to go positive, but that weekly expected move is right there. I'm going to burp a little bit. Oops. So, like I said, it's pretty clear, actually. [00:54:49] Speaker 1: I think it's pretty clear for Amazon. I think it's pretty clear for AVGO that we're trying to form or reconfirm trap signals, bear trap signals for a two-hour move to the upside. That's how you would overall say it. And the reason that I like that they're clean at least is because that 15-minute is reacting very well. You can mitigate risk for a moment, you know, and [00:55:11] Speaker 2: then look if that curls back up. Well, we can always go up and see a trap on Friday. [00:55:23] Speaker 1: We can always go up into OpEx next week, reprice into VIXPiration, start to see volatility kind of subside and then pick back up. I'm not leaning towards that. I'm leaning towards a two-hour move to the upside that's overall like a trap by Friday. I think a trap Friday up towards 750 to 755 would be very, very nice. I'm not the best hubby ever. I still do things that annoy my wife. I don't think that I'm by any means perfect. Yesterday, she told me I was really, really helpful, though. That's always nice. Yeah, we just showed the ABGO. Just go back five minutes, Rufius, okay? Five minutes real quick and then join us back, okay? VIXPiration is next Wednesday. Thoughts on AMC? I don't mind what it's doing right here. I do not mind this at all. The two-hour curls up, two-hour continues the move. It's just more times than not, AMC is going to fail this signal. Because it's AMC, right? Because it's AMC, it's more likely to fail this signal. Now, that's not to say it can't be profitable. It's not to say some kind of massive moment can't happen for AMC. What I'm saying here is if the two-hour cross is up and I make a decision, I say, I'm going to go long, and it just depends on your goal for the trade. If you're just looking for a trade that takes you above this high, maybe goes up towards 240, 250, hey, that's plausible. I think that's definitely something to watch for. But if you're thinking this is going to squeeze through, then you have to watch it with a very careful lens and say, hey, in both of these, I would say a careful lens, if the two-hour is rotating down, then that is failing. Right? So it's the same thing. So same type of thing. The 30-minute looks like it's in a pretty good trend. The two-hour is crossing up. Okay, then if everything goes well here, then you shouldn't see anything bad. If I start to see something bad, though, then I react. As far as the daily goes, though, daily is positive. You have daily divergence. That means, once again, AMC does have a signal that suggests a weekly pullback or even weekly divergence considering it's negative is on the table with a confirmation of more downside. Confirmation of downside would be it would start with the divergence here. So if the daily confirms down, it's saying that something like this can happen, right? Something really bad. Now, if it stops, though, and curls back up and gives you another higher low, uh-oh, maybe that's the moment. We'll have to see. But as of right now, you just have a two-hour swing and you have to think of your goal for the trade and then have your, hey, what if this goes wrong? Which is what we should do with every trade, right? Every trade should always have a, hey, how would this trade start going wrong? Hey, we, you know, just like yesterday, a lot of people saying, hey, I was moving stops down while I was making money. That's fantastic. That's great. We caught the rejection, right? I didn't take the play because I was three hours of sleep. And weirdly enough, I have like seven hours of sleep. I feel more tired today than yesterday. So, yeah, I would just look at AMC with a lens of like, you know, accumulation. If you think that a big moment will ever happen, it's much easier to hold stocks than to call the exact moment that this will pop off. Now, am I, am I saying it's impossible? No, I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying the weekly here does not have any reversal signals to say like, hey, the weekly chart is going to take over in a big positive weekly trend. So the thing I'm thinking happens here is AMC fails. I think AMC fails this move. And then I think you're at risk of seeing some potential downside. If if I wanted to buy AMC, I think it would be off. And, you know, this is just what I would do. We're different people, right? We're different people. But this is what I'm thinking about for AMC. I'm like, hey, if this fails, and I see a daily higher low, I could I think there's a decision I could make there. If this fails, and the daily really plummets, and we see a weekly pullback that sets up a weekly divergence, I think I could make a decision with that. Right? So those two scenarios are what me personally, I would look at. But if you want to say, hey, a two hour swing is good enough for me, and I'm going to attempt, then we're different people. And that's perfectly fine. I'm not going to hate on you for being like, hey, there's a two hour swing [01:00:04] Speaker 2: trade in front of me, you know? I don't know you like we do. [01:00:15] Speaker 1: Yeah, my wife, she's one of the hardest working people I know. She is insane. She is the most active, caring mom, and that's huge. Yeah, Joseph, I hope that was pretty good for AMC. Now, Joseph, I can't make, the other thing is, I don't think you're wrong to be looking at things like this in these times, because, you know, getting up to 800 is going to take a lot, and IWM is going to have to probably hold higher to do that. So I'm not saying this is like improper, but I can't make expected moves for this anymore. They change, the options data change to where I can't, I don't have the expirations to make it. I actually, next week, next week I will, next week I will have a weekly expected move for AMC. Joseph, next week on Monday, if you're not a patron, are you a patron member? Because if you're not, Joseph, just let me know and ask about AMC on like Monday during the live show next week, and we will show off the weekly expected moves so you guys can get them, okay? [01:01:32] Speaker 2: You want to buy AMC, all of it? [01:01:35] Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, that'd be sick. You know how cool it'd be? I'm not, I'm new here. Okay, come back next Monday, and I will have this. So as of right now, see these purple lines, the yellow lines? They are expected moves that I calculate using the options data. A good example of this is how they react is kind of like the queues and what we're doing right now with the yellow line. So if you look at this, we went up to an annual expected move. We came down to a monthly expected move, and we're kind of holding there. This is proper behavior for expected moves. I can't make those for AMC because they changed the options expirations. They deleted a lot of them. But next week, I will have will have an options expiration for them, so I can create these purple lines. If you notice for the SPY, this was pretty critical, right? These can help you a lot in decision making because they have real data behind them. They are the best support and resistance you will ever see, and I can't make those for AMC this week, but I can next week. So join the live show next Monday, and right away, right in the morning, just come in and say, hey, man, can we get the weekly expected moves for AMC, or just say, hey, take a look at AMC, and I will remember because I've said it. I try to repeat myself plenty of times so my brain remembers it because I forget things all the time. I will put those up for next week. This is very good, though. AMC in a very good 30-minute trend. AMC, nothing here screams failure yet. So you're just cooking. The point where you get a little, eh, like, oh, do we come up to here and then we start to roll? Do we make a divergence? Do we roll before we get there and make a lower high? Those are the risky things, but as of right now, two hours in a positive trend, this is the best AMC's looked in a long time, but I can't update these levels. Yeah, I can't update them properly, but I can for next week. [01:03:36] Speaker 2: For, like, OPEXs and stuff like that, I can. Oh, wait, let's go over here. 30-minute. [01:03:47] Speaker 1: Amazon not able to come back as of right now. Just keeping my eye on this. Need to watch the 15. I do not want that to violate it. There's a wasp. [01:03:58] Speaker ?: What the? [01:03:59] Speaker 1: There's a wasp in between, like, in the screen of my window in my office. Oh, I do not like wasps. Is the white line the 9 EMA? The white line here is going to be a 200, and it will adjust based on the time frame. [01:04:20] Speaker 2: So the white line is a 200 SMA. I'm going to have to burn the office. [01:04:31] Speaker 1: Dude, I hate it. I hate having to look at a wasp while I'm talking to you guys. It gives me the tinglys, [01:04:37] Speaker 2: you know what I'm saying? I don't like it. Big AMC volume candle. That'd be sick, man. [01:04:57] Speaker 1: Like, that's the thing. Like, so if AMC goes, that's dope. Like, that's awesome. That'd be so cool to just see. Yeah, see how daily lower high is starting to become more probable for AMC? [01:05:13] Speaker 2: I'm sorry, AMC. [01:05:14] Speaker 1: Amazon. So even if we get a big daily reaction, now we'd have to watch for lower high. So we'll see. We're outside a monthly move, though, with reversal signals. Let's look at 15 over here. 15 right on the center line. So if the 15 crosses down, the door is open to test the lows. Now he's flying around. I don't like it. The door is open to test all of this. You see these buyers in here. You test, like, maybe all of this. Or you would go make a new low. And so if this crosses down, market's risky again. So what you're looking for now, during the end of a trap potentially forming, like building for a two-hour move, is you're looking for that 15 minute to give you a higher low, 15 minute to give you that last little divergence point, or just never cross down, right? Because we're holding current signals. That's why the queues are a little better to keep an eye on, because their signals look better. Queues and IWM have the better looking signals. [01:06:18] Speaker 2: AMC did? I'll keep it up over here. How much you got behind it? 1.9 mil? Eh, that's probably, you know, what do these have? Yeah, those are lighter. 4.2. That's because of the cell. 3.5. [01:06:46] Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. It's, oh! It's a curl up in positive territory. It's going. We'll see. I'm just watching for divergence, anything like that, but I'll stick to my guns here. [01:07:01] Speaker 2: Wow. Wow. solid bar. Solid bar. [01:07:07] Speaker 1: Solid bar because that's allowing the 30-minute to just climb. The bigger the 30-minute move here, the better. Right? Because if we would stop all of a sudden and just do this, ah, that wouldn't be good. I want, I want this to squeeze. So that's like, yeah, positive moves, man. Positive moves for at least three pushes. Yeah, I want that to be strong for, I pretty much want that 30-minute trend to stay all day today. I don't want this to see [01:07:39] Speaker 2: any 30-minute roll today. I want that to squeeze. Now, that's just me [01:07:47] Speaker 1: looking at it and appreciating it, right? I don't, I actually do not hold AMC anymore. Can't even remember when I got out of this thing. [01:07:59] Speaker 2: I held it for a lot of 2025, but [01:08:01] Speaker 1: no, I never risk a lot behind this because it's, it fails like 90% of the time. If you're looking for the big squeeze, that is, it fails like 99%. That's why I like holding, like, I think [01:08:20] Speaker 2: like options are too risky with AMC. [01:08:28] Speaker 1: 3-hour move, 30-minute, I think this is the violated one, no? Flat? Yeah, you have a flat for NVIDIA. That's enough. You have it on your MACD, bam. So this would also agree with this. So we're just seeing if this move can play out. $2 stocks are scary, exactly. That's why it's like, I always follow my dad's friend's rules at that point, which is just like, pretty much you don't buy more than like 2K. pretty much something below five bucks. Like, if you're, you know, if I'm going to buy it and hold it, then I'm not, I'm probably not putting more than like 2K behind it, unless I'm really researched it for a long time. AMC, I think there's too much risk involved to be like, yeah, let me do 20, 40 grand. Like, that's just, that's, that's too much. [01:09:20] Speaker 2: But that's where we're different, right? That's just me. For the first time in four years, it looks not, like I'm saying, I can [01:09:31] Speaker 1: appreciate it. And I can tell you what I think. I can tell you what maybe a plan for me to actually get into it is. But right now, it's not that plan for me. Right now, it's that plan for probably someone else who, you know, is willing to take that risk. I saw the weekly. I really like the weekly. If we can hold up for this week, if we don't confirm daily divergence, then I'll be looking at it. If we confirm daily divergence, then I'll be looking at it. I'll be looking if it's a pullback or if we're going to get a weekly correction. Because that's a pretty good move. I think you went up from like, what, 80 cents or something? 85? To like, 2 something? [01:10:14] Speaker 2: It's not bad. Yeah, but in order for [01:10:27] Speaker 1: AMC to still be considered like good, you would say that two-hour move cannot fail. 93? Nah, close enough. Where'd you buy Heeltoe? 93? [01:10:41] Speaker 2: Hey, that'd be sick. Probably pretty lucky at that point, but sick. We like it. Oh, gosh. I'm going to wipe my nose real quick. [01:11:13] Speaker 1: If we do get the schedule down with live video to where we're pretty comfortable with it at the house, then we'll try to flip on the face cam so you guys can see my ugly mug every once in a while. The other thing is, if we start to see crazy things now that we've opened up live video for the summer and we'll switch to a potential membership towards the end of August, that switch will take place. Since we're doing that, something that I want to leave available is when it does switch to a membership, it'll be like, hey, if I'm available and something crazy is happening on a Friday and we need to look at it together, I'll try to hop on live video. I'm going to try to do that for the summer as well. So if you turn notifications on, guys, for YouTube, in case I go live on a random Friday for seeing something crazy, if I'm available, I will try to hop on if my wife can spare some time too. It will have to be separate from Patreon just to keep it easy to keep you on YouTube, pretty much. I've looked into it for a long time of how to do it properly to be the best experience, honestly, for you guys. Because for me, I don't mind clicking on Patreon and going over there and doing it, but I think from my research, because I actually used to be in marketing, I know how annoying it is and how hard it is for people to switch platforms, I would like to keep it on YouTube. So Patreon, everything you get on Patreon will stay the same. And then towards the end of August, we'll add the membership here. Because, and also, a lot of people on Patreon, they can't come to a live show in the morning. I noticed that as well. A lot of people on Patreon say like, hey, I can't come to the live show. So that's why I want to keep that there for those people. I know, you guys got to see the office, it's kind of like a game room office. So my wife, we have a, she's her and her sister are kind of collectors, so she has some collectibles. You guys can see my, some, I bought my first Pokemon cards because she's getting into the Pokemon scene with her art. I'll just show you guys, I wonder if I have a picture. I wonder if I can show you guys a picture of her, one of her work. Let me see if I can get a picture real quick. Because it's really nice. There it is. Oh, I do. Okay. Who do you guys want to see? Totodile. What is this? Espeon, maybe? Mudkip. She drew Lucario. And then some legendary Pokemon, I don't know. [01:13:47] Speaker 2: I think I downloaded them, actually. Let me see. I don't know what Pokemon this is. I have no idea. I don't know who that is. But it's pretty good. [01:14:08] Speaker 1: All hand-painted stuff, and I'm like, dang, that's impressive. But I'm impressed easily with art because I suck at drawing. [01:14:16] Speaker 2: My favorite of hers is the Totodile. My favorite of hers is the Totodile. I like the Totodile a lot. I think that's really cute. [01:14:32] Speaker 1: Yeah, we're still on, man. Yeah, so she started that, and she has, if you guys want to follow her, if you guys want to give her a follow, I think she made her name, babe, on YouTube. If you guys want to go give her a follow, she would get really excited if she got, like, you know, three followers all of a sudden. I think she has, like, nine. I did her, I set up her SEO yesterday. So pretty much when she puts the girls down for an app, she paints because she already has, like, with 10 subscribers, she already has, like, I think she has five commissions. So she's doing, she's really doing well. So she would love for you guys to go find her, PokeBinder, babe, on YouTube, TikTok, all that good stuff. But I don't do TikTok and that stuff. [01:15:25] Speaker 2: Warren Buffett czar. So, yeah, if some of you guys go over there, that would be cool. [01:15:32] Speaker 1: Just to make her day. She'd be like, I gained five subscribers. I'm like, yeah, that's so cool. I'm not even going to tell her. I just want her to be excited. You know, I don't want her to think. I want her to, I want her to know that she's doing a great job, you know? Oh, that's perfectly fine, Justin. That's perfectly fine. I just wanted to kind of make her morning, maybe. And maybe when she gets back and I hop off, I'll just be like, hey, check at this. Oh, I was looking at your page. She would get really excited. I think she just, you know, me personally, I'm like, you do really good work. Like people will find you. And so we set her up and people started to slightly find her. She had her first video hit like a thousand views on YouTube or something. And she's like a thousand and I'm like, yeah, I think she just does shorts or something. Hey, thank you though. Thank you. Macra. Wait, Mark. Oh, sorry. Macra. Marco, Marco Moses saying big puts. [01:16:37] Speaker 2: Let's see. Yeah, I mean. [01:16:40] Speaker 1: I'm not going to trick us out by looking at five minute charts. I just want to see if you have any hint that these things can curl up. I think 15 minutes are still your friend here. Is volatility on the 15 minutes still? Yeah. So you can follow volatility. You can follow spy here and just be like, hey, if the 15 minute curls down, where's the targets? [01:16:59] Speaker 2: Well, one's here. The other one's here. And then you just know that if you're if you're [01:17:09] Speaker 1: trying to do it now, you have to know this if you're like, OK, we're at a monthly expected move that should just convince you about it should make you take a double look at your position size behind anything here. You know that you're near the monthly move, which means what? The monthly move means the same thing. It means when we talk about upside, right? The same way we talked about it. What was it here? We're going to talk about the same thing here, right? You climb up to those levels. Monthly expect move. Pullback. Oh, we go down to those levels. Monthly expected move. Bounce. Now, if you're saying I'm going to take a trade because I think this is a volatile moment and we're not going to see a bounce. Well, then just note that you're doing that at the monthly expected move with reversal signals. So you would need these to fail to be correct. And I'm not saying that's like impossible. Never. You know, I'm not saying that I'm just keeping you aware of everything that probably needs to be known about taking bearish trades near the monthly expected move. But if you're quicker than me, if you're just like a two-day option guy, if you're same day or something, you see a 15-minute cross down, it's like, okay, daily move, maybe weekly move, daily move, take 90% profit, leave one, two runners. Okay, boom, we get to weekly. [01:18:23] Speaker 2: Okay, we're done. All right. Depending on the strategy, there's [01:18:32] Speaker 1: tens of thousands of ways to look at it. This verse sums up your process. Oh, I love it. Okay, cool. A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 27, 12. Love it. There's a lot of those financial reasoning from like biblical financing. I think those are really, really cool. Like little things, like the simplest of things, like, you know, those who are trusted, what is it? Those who are trusted with little can be trusted with much. So if you can't be trusted with little, then you can't be trusted with much, right? So if you're sitting there and you're like, I only have a $10,000 account. Well, if you respect that $10,000 account, then you're more likely to respect a $100,000 account [01:19:23] Speaker 2: later, right? Yeah, I'm excited. I'm on my second kind of read [01:19:35] Speaker 1: through of the Bible. It's been, you know, different stuff pops out to you every time you read it. So it's very cool. [01:19:46] Speaker 2: Parable of the talent. Yeah, the talents. That's it. I'm very bad at pointing out where it is, but I do [01:19:57] Speaker 1: know, like, I do remember a lot of the, I just can't point out where. I'd have to, like, look everything up. I hope I get to a point one day where I could be like, you know, my favorite verses, like the lilies. I love the, the, [01:20:12] Speaker 2: the lilies verses are so good. look at the lilies. I'll get there, he'll tell. I'll probably be at Philippians by the end of this week. [01:20:34] Speaker 1: Yeah, five from his master and doubled it. And then the one buried it, right? So one man given two and doubled it and one man who buried it. Yeah. And if it taken away and give it [01:20:43] Speaker 2: to the man with 10. like the talents one man. [01:20:55] Speaker 1: Yeah, that's changed my life more than anything. And I encourage anyone out there who's even, even getting the slightest inclination of like, Hey, I've never read the Bible before. Start, you know, start with that New Testament, man. That's what I did. Just, just, you know, reach out because you never know that little feeling in the back of your head. That might be him telling you, Hey, come reach out to me, man. I'm right here. [01:21:18] Speaker 2: Be great guys. Cause that's, that's [01:21:25] Speaker 1: how I view it. I just randomly one day was like, I don't know why I keep getting this feeling. And then I actually acted upon it and now my life has changed forever. And it's, and I feel, it, it just [01:21:37] Speaker 2: feels different, you know? So I wish that for all of you guys. I don't wish that I pray it for all of you guys. the synoptic gospels. So I didn't, I didn't start there. I do. Um, I just did the, what? ESV. Oh, it's a, yeah. [01:22:04] Speaker 1: And the other thing is like, I see it's intimidating. It is right. It can be. But the, the other thing is reading through the old Testament and things like that, you get a main focus and there's even a portion where someone asks God like what he wants and he gets frustrated and he says, I just want to be understood and loved. So look, man, you pull that, you pull that book open and you just right before it, you just say, I'm just, I'm just trying to understand you. You know, I just, I just want to understand you better. Just give yourself that humility of being like, I don't understand you and I want to understand you. show me, show me yourself, you know, teach me about you. I want to understand what you are. And then once you understand that, once he gives you that understanding, um, you know, you'll have a whole different outlook on who God is, how good, like the word good, how good he really is. So I, I wish that for all you guys. Okay. I really do. I'll, I'll keep praying on it for you guys every day and I'll keep showing up to these live shows. He has to help you guys with this stuff, but, um, helping with that matters. A million, billion, infinitely, eternally more. Heck yeah. I'm, I'm glad to see there's some people out there shouting it out. And if you're hesitant, that's okay. It's all right. But if you feel that inclination at all, I encourage you to just go take that leap and, and he'll hold you through all of it and may his will be done. Q's IWM. See, IWM, the reason that I'm a little bit like, do we confirm that? Do we fail this signal? It's just look at this move from IWM and then we start to get rotation. I don't know about that. Take it literally. Yeah. So I grew up, uh, Catholic. So my whole outlook on everything has changed completely. [01:24:04] Speaker 2: Not just not trying to bash anyone out there. That's just how I grew up. Okay. Ah. Catholic too. I just had some rough things happen to me there. [01:24:30] Speaker 1: and then, yeah, even if Catholic, whoever, whatever, you know, it doesn't matter. Just open it up. [01:24:38] Speaker 2: Read it yourself. Alone. Alone. Yeah, I think, oh, the [01:24:53] Speaker 1: other thing is someone saying like, hey, yeah, I'm not enlightened or anything, uh, yet something that I noticed was I learned a lot more, like by learn. I mean, I understood a lot more about the Bible when I stopped trying myself to, does this make sense? Like I stopped trying so hard to understand it myself. Like use my technical analysis skills, use my analyzing skills to, to learn it. Um, I more so found that when I was just relaxed, understanding that it's, it is complex for me right now. So not relying on my own strength is a good thing. And maybe I just read it to see what I can, you know, see what I can learn from it. like, see what I can understand afterwards without trying so hard. And then I think that [01:25:49] Speaker 2: spot was pretty good for me. Awesome. Well, I'm glad to see [01:26:02] Speaker 1: it. I'm just glad, man. I'm glad that we can chat about it. I think that's really cool that you guys even chat about it, saying Catholic, whatever. Uh, it's still good to talk about it and still the same message goes to everyone, right? Everyone should just be reading it. Or everyone deserves the peace. Actually, you don't deserve it. Actually, no one deserves the peace, but that's where you [01:26:24] Speaker 2: understand how good he is. Love it, boys. Love it, boys. [01:26:32] Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen. All right. We got 953 here. Is there any of the stocks? Oh, God, the wasp is back. Oh, I shouldn't say that. Sorry, God. The wasp is back. It freaked me out for a sec. Is there anything on the right side? [01:26:48] Speaker 2: Anything that we wanted to go over? Am I embarrassed to reach [01:26:57] Speaker 1: 730 target? That's why we're watching the 15 minutes. So you do have 30-minute confirmations here. So let me try to explain this, like, since you asked. We'll explain it maybe in a different way. Just like everything we're seeing here from especially the queues in IWM are suggesting we could do this. At least that. Okay? So when does this become negated? Well, the first place you would look for, if this move isn't going to happen, then we curl right here. If we curl right here, then we can get to here or here, and we open the door to a flush. So this would move. This would pretty much go like this. Okay, if this fails, right, we see this in any way, this would move and start to look like this, maybe a higher low. This would start to look like this, maybe divergence. But considering that this move would potentially open the door to more downside during this phase, I wouldn't want to be bullish right away. I would want to make sure that this is proving to turn back around and then see this point over here or if the higher low scenario takes place over here. If we wipe this out and we go like this, you know what happens to this right here? Do we move it down? No, this gets deleted. So if we do that, it gets deleted because you're very likely to just continue. And we really, you would like to do that portion, this like long portion that we drew this line, like long down and said that that's deleted. We would like to do that on the 30 minute chart, not the 15. So, but that's the outlook for the spy. Current signals suggest that if you can hold here, then you go to the upside. If you start to roll, you're in danger. Danger! [01:28:52] Speaker 2: But if you roll here, you're still watching for the trick and trap. [01:29:00] Speaker 1: Sun, oh, sunrun. I did see sunrun somewhere in the chat a couple times. What's, I don't think I've looked at sunrun. Eh, we gotta see 30. You have something. It's weak though. See how far it is from the center line? That's why I say it's weak. It's not very significant on the MACD. RSI, maybe near price action starting to, but look, you still have the same distance away for the MACD. Two hour very negative. Oh, we see some shape here, right? I don't know if that full squeeze would take place. That's probably pretty bullish, actually, if you would just make a two hour move like that. Instead, you'd kind of look for kind of a move to probably retest into, I'd probably mark off this, this low taken out, but we can mark this off. Let's just have something. We gotta, we gotta at least get something to tell us like, hey, we can't be in no man's land about this, but so you would say more likely than not. If this even wants to figure stuff out, it would curl to the upside and then potentially fail around that 13. God, this wasp is just, and that's just because continuation here for the two hours seems to be most probable. And then marking off that zone is really good, actually, here because if you can squeeze through, then you would watch that area for a retest of like this five day coming across. I don't know why I drew it like that. So either way, I think marking off that can give you some guidance, but as of right now, you're cooked. As of right now, the 30 minute just doesn't give you much. It has some divergences, but they're not very significant, so I can't trust them fully, and I don't have monthly moves or anything to add anything to them to convince me to risk money. I think that the easier play for run here is you're going to continue, yeah, you're going to continue to the downside here, here, right? You're going to see more downside moves, and then you watch out as that daily is by the center line. Watch out for divergence. Watch out for higher lows because the daily is technically by the center line. So I'm not saying this can't form as an opportunity, but right now you have to acknowledge like, hey, you're kind of water falling down right now, and the two hour has no sign that you are, no signal, that you are just going to get a daily move to the upside. You have no hint here. So probably, like I said, this is another one. If you kind of write this down, this is something we could potentially look at in a few trading sessions. So if you want to write this down and bring it up on, say, Monday, just like we kind of said with AMC with the weekly moves, if you want to bring this up on Monday, that would be probably best case because that might be enough time to at least see one two hour move. If we can actually get a two hour move out of this, like a two hour bounce, we can talk about it a lot differently. We can look at it and see where that two hour bounce is getting to. AMC here still, remember that's my thoughts, but still the struggling to break through and hold above that two confidently. I know we were talking about AMC today, but I don't mind that run look. I really don't. Ooh, okay. See, now you're starting to get those. Now this is a little much. So you're starting to go, oh, is that going to cross down? You got this going on. You got this going on. Look at volatility. Volatility saying, hey, we're going to climb here. So we don't have confirmation from MACD just yet, but maybe Amazon was a good leading indicator that we could roll. NVIDIA looks like a big roll just took place. Yeah, NVIDIA trying to roll this as well. Let's see the other [01:32:56] Speaker 2: one, Google. [01:32:59] Speaker 1: Google's positive there. Five-minute divergence [01:33:01] Speaker 2: suggesting the roll can come. AVGO rejecting. Yeah, AVGO already rejected. So this should be like, [01:33:14] Speaker 1: I'm just sitting, sitting, sitting, waiting for like a little bloop. You need that. You need this to curl up. This curls up. You're fine. You still have everything intact. But I already failed technically the reversal there on the 15. But these are all just for, 15s are for management of trades right now. We're looking at this. And if this is failing, then you have to say like, uh-oh, we've opened the door to what? We've opened the door to this. Right? We just opened that door. You want to close that door? Turn up. You want to see the early signs of that closing? Okay. Turn up on the 15-minute. Cross this MACD up. And then you're pretty set for a couple of [01:33:59] Speaker 2: pushes. [01:34:04] Speaker 1: We'll see what takes place there. Let's go back and leave this on Amazon still. So Amazon's still coming to the downside. We can look at this. Amazon needs to figure it out like now. [01:34:17] Speaker 2: Yeah, Amazon needs to figure it out like now. [01:34:20] Speaker 1: Which I'm assuming the five minutes is starting [01:34:22] Speaker 2: to pile up. Yeah, so. [01:34:27] Speaker 1: Failed on the 30 minutes so far. Holding the point. Right? Holding the point. So as of right now, it's trying to fail. And it's giving you signals that suggest, hey, mitigate risk for the time being. But if we reverse around, we still have reversal signals well intact. I'm going to leave that on Google or Amazon. Google or Amazon. Google or Amazon. Google or Amazon. I might leave it on ABGO actually. Just pay attention to that percentage. Aha! No confirmation yet from the MACD. Technically, you could say like five-minute pullback. Fifteen-minute didn't cross. I don't know about that for pullback. But you do have like divergences here. I totally understand someone being like, hey, this can confirm down. But remember, the five minutes is more likely to fail than like a 30-minute. So if this can figure it out and reject, we'll see. But if the 15-minute starts to cross down on the MACD, then you're pretty set. Like, hey, daily expected move is going to get tagged. And then you would say this door is open and this door is open. We already went through all that. We are failing on like two indications here. Price, the actual bars, and the RSI. But I like to follow that MACD. If you really want to be like, this is failing, then the lagging indicator should go off. [01:35:59] Speaker 2: You got 10.90 to 16? That's a good trade. [01:36:03] Speaker 1: That's what I'm talking about. That's really nice. Sound like J-Lo. Oh, wait, J-Lo's here. Put up J-Lo. [01:36:10] Speaker 2: What's your favorite kisses for me, man? [01:36:17] Speaker 1: Hey, that's awesome, Jonathan. I'm glad to see that reaction, brother. Hey, thank you for coming to the live show. Appreciate you, brother. Yeah, so live shows, just so you know, Jonathan, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday from the open for about two to three hours. [01:36:37] Speaker 2: Wait, is that Shakira? That's Shakira. Yeah. What's a J-Lo song? [01:36:44] Speaker 1: If the put a ring on it, that's it. Something like that, right? [01:37:03] Speaker 2: You're on the zero. Woo! Marco's doing business today. [01:37:10] Speaker 1: Yeah, AMC looks like a push is coming. Actually, yeah, let's leave it on AMC. We'll go back to AVGO, but I don't want to miss that if this starts to take place. I really want to look at short, short time frames. Pretty much it's this, though. Two hours should just, as long as this stays positive the whole time, whenever this turns down, as long as there's like BC divergence or lower high, the two hours, the one that's like, hey, that would be failure. Like complete failure is the two hour chart rolling down. So we'll see. [01:37:45] Speaker 2: I don't even know, man. Yeah. Amazon closed the gap. Yeah, I'm seeing if that failure is just the last trap to like test the lows. There we go missing. Oh, no. Well, hey, well, get out there. Go find her. Huh. Missing. Dang. So that's crazy. [01:38:18] Speaker 1: It's always scary. It's always scary when a little especially like I obviously all of them, but I, you know, maybe it's because I have girls that I'm thinking like, man, I would be I'd be losing it. Yeah, it's pretty. Yeah. A lot of like what what to consider with confirmations is just like, well, what if it doesn't confirm? You know, that's always the question I get. And it's like, well, then it continues. Like, right. We continue to sell if these things confirm or reject, then you continue to sell. But as of right now, being at the monthly move, we have more to talk about. If we were doing this, if we were doing the exact same thing, if we were doing the exact same thing, but a little higher up, then we would say, oh, monthly move needs to get tagged. So we put more emphasis on it if we were at a higher price. But since we're at the monthly move, we have to constantly talk about, oh, this can do this. This can do this or this can do this. Right? We have to give all of them. If we were just a little higher up, we'd just be like, oh, okay, monthly expected moves is all we're really talking about right now. [01:39:31] Speaker 2: Nice management YouTube. [01:39:34] Speaker 1: Yeah, we're pretty much all looking at if we have to manage anything. Amazon was the managed one early on. I thought I saw that [01:39:44] Speaker 2: jump for a sec. Have a great one, J-Lo. I don't want to give [01:39:51] Speaker 1: the market my profits back, so have a good one. Appreciate your work. Hey, awesome, Laws. Oh, nice management YouTube. Yeah, Laws, that's great, man. Thanks for joining us today, all right? Go enjoy your day. Work's done, right? So go enjoy your day. [01:40:07] Speaker 2: Don't want to overdo it. Don't overdo it and get cocky or something. Start putting a soccer ball under my desk and I just like do little taps. Rubric? R, B, R, K. [01:40:34] Speaker 1: I don't know if I've looked at this. 73. Daily in pullback mode. Really, the first real pullback here. So I get it. You just went kind of parabolic for like three days. Okay, we do our regular practice here. It can just be a pullback. But it's just, you have the euphoric moment. That's why whenever you see something like this, you go, oh, well, just watch out in case this is like a waterfall type moment. But all right, so this is good. All right, if you're going to continue to daily pullback, well, it's kind of hard to continue to daily pullback if the two hour crosses up. Now, you are negative in some sort. So you're kind of in the same boat as the market here where it's like, yes, this can happen because you're not crazy far away from the center line. but the more likely thing is like, hey, can we see that lower high? So you're kind of paying attention to both. It's kind of like, hey, if I see the swing trade set up and I take a play, maybe we confirm at 75 on the dot and I say, okay, 75 and I'm going to ride that up to test this high or even go make a new one. Okay, if we see that ride and we get to that high, we'll be like, all right, take some off, gets up a little higher, take the rest off, two hour pullback, we're on our way. Right? Now the other portion of that though is based on where you're at with that MACD, the other thing that can happen here is you just go like this and then you stop short and you roll down to see reversal signals later for the daily. So with this, you would kind of consider both. You would say, okay, I need to watch for any kind of 30 minute signal here. So if you see just like boom, boom, boom, and then you rotate down, then that would be the two hour kind of giving you that roll. So I like paying attention to both of those. So that means monitoring it very carefully is probably a good thing, right? If the two hour crosses up and I go in and then the 30 minute shows a divergence and I see that confirm, I can just say, okay, I'm out. Okay, that confirmed with a higher low. Okay, I'm back in. Right? Two hour swing, two hour swing. But I just want to be out during this phase because if this would for whatever reason 30 minute collapse, that would be a pretty big issue if I'm really bullish on it. But I think you're looking at it at a decent time. 30 minutes going positive. You had the divergence on the MACD, not on the RSI. But you want this to stretch. I want this to stretch, come back, tap, go again, over here, $75 looks like a decision making area later maybe. The divergence not being on the RSI kind of a big deal. And I'll say it's a big deal because I don't look at this chart very often either. So, if I don't look at the chart very often, then it's a big deal for me to tell you the whole spiel. Okay, that rhymed. We take it. [01:43:39] Speaker 2: 15 rolling now, huh? [01:43:46] Speaker 1: Yeah, like these are big ranges too. I'm big ranges and you're getting late confirmations. That's pretty wild. It's like you're getting ranges like you have volatility at 25. Seriously, you're getting ranges like we're in volatile times but you're sitting at like 21. Like I think volatility volatility is kind of low here for what we're doing. For the late confirmations we're getting, volatility is pretty low. [01:44:18] Speaker 2: School time? Fritz, all right, good luck with your studies. Cool. Rebreaking. Oh, okay, all right. Founder. Very good. Very good. Very good. [01:44:33] Speaker 1: That'd be scary. My parents lost me all the time. Nowadays, kids get lost, you know, but you know, back then my parents used to say, go outside. The parents were like, go outside, get out of the house. And we'd just go outside, we'd go to the creek, we'd be gone for six hours and then we'd come back and be like, covered in water and stuff, frog juice on our hands. And then we'd be like, hey, ready for dinner? We don't do that anymore, huh? Yeah, it's come back when you see the sun setting. [01:45:07] Speaker 2: Oh, sorry. I'll be right back, guys, like literally 30 seconds. I'm just grabbing something. All right. Oh, [01:45:47] Speaker 1: and if you guys are, if anyone's new or anything like that, you can always check out if any of this is confusing. If you watch for a while, you're still a little confused on how to read into a lot of these things. You really need it in black and white and that's perfectly fine. Most people do gain a way better understanding and then they come back and they're like, hey, it's more of like, hey, just taking, using both of our skills for an opinion, but you can get that full technical analysis course. The summer sale is up right now. I believe you can snag it for what normally I leave it between four to five and right now it's only, it's going to be for the whole summer since we're doing live shows and stuff like that. I want people to be able to ask about it. The full summer sale, full technical analysis course is down there in the description. It's only, I think it's like $199. I think, yeah, it's something like $199 right now. But just wanted to mention that to you guys. Obviously, if you're new, I do always encourage you stick around for a bit, watch a bunch of YouTube videos, make sure you can trust what's going on, understand what's going on on a basic, basic level, but that will speed up the process for you. That way you can jump into these live shows and start to really follow along with us. Hiding from our sisters? Oh. Okay, okay. That's cool. I used to hide from my older brother. He's six years older than me, but I used to hide from him because he used to chase me, chase me around acting like Schmeagle. [01:47:17] Speaker 2: Parents left me at the store. Oh, man. [01:47:21] Speaker 1: My dad, my dad, okay, I'm going to tell you guys something funny. My dad told us yesterday because we're, you know, a four-month-old, a two-year-old, and we were talking about how tough it is. My brother's going to, you know, congratulations to my brother will be a due for us soon. He will be having a boy in the next couple of days, maybe even today. We'll see if she gets induced, but yeah, so awesome. Shout out to him. Shout out to, his name's going to be John. Lil' John is what I call him. Lil' John. Yeah, yeah. [01:47:54] Speaker 2: Very, very cool. But I'll tell you what my dad [01:48:05] Speaker 1: was saying yesterday. He said that when he was alone with like, with us sometime, because he had four kids, so don't, don't think it's like, just like mine. Mine's easy compared to probably what he went through. He built a contraption when we could sit up where we could sit up, be strapped in, and he had a bottle of milk that would be next to us so we could turn and get a sip of milk whenever we wanted. And he would plop us down, turn on some Blue's Clues or something from way back then. I don't know what, I'd actually, I have no idea what was on way back when I was a baby. I have no idea. probably like Mr. Rogers or something. Pretty sure I remember watching like Barney and Mr. Rogers. He would turn on that, that way he could like get stuff done. [01:48:53] Speaker 2: I just thought that was so funny. Oh, they do. They have so much fun together, man. She, she already has two cousins. She loves them. [01:49:08] Speaker 1: It doesn't have to, but if the five minute goes negative, this is kind of your day trading practice is so you see the five minute divergence. Okay. That's kind of giving you a little hint here. It fails all the time. That's why I'm not mentioning it very often. This means the five minute now needs to show us some kind of, some kind of signal to turn back up. Right. And the five minute fails all the time. That's why I don't show it very often. But this means that if you can really plummet below these levels, then you can use that as resistance and then potentially get to that weekly expected move for the retest. But considering our daily expected move is there and we're at it if this is some kind of just fake out, like, right, the higher low. Remember, 15 minutes told us we need to watch for higher low because we're at the monthly move. We have to watch for higher low. We have to watch for divergence. And we have to just be hesitant while this phase is happening because the door is open for a big drop with that confirmation. So this tells us right now we would be looking for, hey, do we do this? Do we make some kind of higher low, right? Do we do this? We squeeze and then you see a five minute higher low to actually turn around or do we see this kind of rotate up, fail, rotate up, fail, right? Do we create divergence right here? It's just this MACD is not in a point where you'd really say divergence is really on the table yet. So doing our homework in here is going to be pretty critical. If you don't, if you want to skip through all that homework and just, you know, look at a 15 minute and say, hey, if that 15 minute confirms back up, we're likely going that way. Hey, if this 15 minute comes down here and turns back up, we're likely going that way. But if the 15 minute drops too far, then there is technically no trap trade to be had. [01:50:54] Speaker 2: Right? Did it, did it try again [01:51:03] Speaker 1: and fail? I don't know if, or I'm sorry, Amazon. I don't think AMZ tried it again. Ah, yes, yes, yes. Oh, okay, okay, okay. So maybe you're thinking, okay, I played the, maybe you were like, okay, extended over here, divergence. Let me try that. Failed. Oh, let me try it again. Failed. This is regular practice when getting tight. You can see a lot of failures. The important thing is this, right? The important thing is, am I, am I trying too often with this, losing a bunch of money every time I'm managing every trade, losing 20%, 20%, 20%, right? That's a big deal because that might mean, you know, we're, we're taking too many attempts with this. The other thing would just be this 15 minute is starting to wipe out those divergences. So this is starting to say, hey, we might need to remake those on the 15 minute. But our important thing is the 30 minute. So have we violated on the 30? You have not violated on the 30. You have violated on the 30 over here. If I, if I have the correct point, that is. Yeah, you have violated on the 30 over here. So this can be some kind of wonky. It's not as clear now because you wiped out a point, right? So it immediately becomes less clear right now of getting some kind of turnaround. Instead, you probably have like what, multiple point can happen, right? Multiple point divergences, meaning like you could start to draw and be like, okay, well, as long as we're holding this point, right? As long as we're not violating these points, then it's pretty okay. Maybe this was just a little fluke and we come down to here and we go to the upside. Okay, we're still holding that multiple point divergence right here. We had this, it failed, so now we have multiple point. I'm not a big fan of multiple point, but I think due to the monthly expected move being there, it's worth paying attention to. This happened with Tesla when we were doing the big move over here, [01:53:04] Speaker 2: I think. I think this happened with Tesla, didn't it? Am I incorrect on that? No, I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure it was Tesla. [01:53:18] Speaker 1: No, was it here? I can't remember. We talked about the flat divergence, double bottom, into the pullback. Yeah, so this one had a pullback before actually getting its big moves, so maybe that's not proper actually. I don't think it was Amazon then. I thought it was more similar to this than it actually was. But the 30-minute here, this means that right now it's in the process of failure for the 30-minute. It has failed the signal for the RSI. So whenever a failure happens, I always treat it very seriously. You treat it like it can just go because the weekly expected move is down there. And maybe we want to more so create those weekly expected moves like this and go into Friday. We'll see if that's able to take place because now you're at risk of doing this. You're definitely at risk of wiping this stuff out and then you would want to remake those signals. So if we just go a little bit lower than here, like I'd say if we start to hit like 237, then you're probably deep enough to violate some more RSI stuff. If you violate those, then there's kind of no argument for multiple point. So right now your main argument is probably multiple point divergence and that's just not something I'm a big fan of. But the management for the trade came in and now you're benefiting from the management of the trade. So if you were able to manage a trade here, then you kind of pat yourself on the back and say, hey, the market did not do what I thought it was going to do. The market failed the signal and I followed my rules and therefore I was able to not lose 100% or 50% or 80%, but I only lost maybe 20, 25%. And then you can keep looking at it, but as the 15 minute violates these things in the near price action and especially on the MACD, we might have a reset taking place. So it's pretty much if the multiple point divergence is going to hold here, then the 30 minute needs to go. Like now, like today. If it's going to keep doing what it's doing now, then we would say it's going to reset. It's going to reset and you'll probably make something like this down here and then we'll look for divergence later on. The important thing is the next real bearish, because now we're in negative trends, very obviously in negative trends. The next bearish trade is probably some kind of bounce still, at least from my two hour perspective, right? If you're doing shorter timeframes, we're just different. That's fine. [01:55:46] Speaker 2: You understand you're in a negative trend. I just kind of trade alert for IWM for July 17th. I don't know. I don't know what they think of it. [01:56:01] Speaker 1: You chase your ducks? Oh, oh, oh. Out of the pool. Okay, Byron, good. Okay. It is, once you start to see things like this, this is the most complicated it can get. So, this is the most complicated it can get. So, if I explain to a hetero saucer, if I explain to you, how I overall look at like taking a trade or something like that, it's more so like, hey, I like to use shorter timeframes for two hour moves. So, I want to see if NVIDIA, if NVIDIA is going to get a two hour move like this. When volatility is high, I can do things like this and know that this is negative and know that I'm just playing some kind of two hour move. I want to see 50 or 100% maybe profit on that. I can target a weekly expected move of 217.37. All right. If I really want to, if the money looks good before then, I know that NVIDIA is at risk of a two hour roll. So, if NVIDIA is at risk of a two hour roll, but I still think a two hour bounce can come, I can still do something with that because of the high volatility. The way I look at this is 30 minutes. So, technically, the entry point for this would be, if you're utilizing the 30 minute divergence here, it would be right here. And technically, you would say, 206.44, I'm in, I'm looking to take profit maybe at 217. As long as the 15 minute doesn't roll before we see the 30 minute go positive. All right. So, notice that the 15 minute was able to roll. All right. And it's close to that center line. So, that's very important because that tells me right now, I might be going wrong. Right now, this door is open. A test of the lows is open. So, you're getting what? A test of those lows. All right. So, right here, you would say, I manage the trade. So, I'm out at 204. Right. So, that $3, you might have that little loss in there. But then, if this is able to carve out a higher low or carve out a divergence, then I can make that decision again if I see it fit, then I can say, okay, it was just one more trick or trap before we actually bought them out here. The bad thing about using NVIDIA for this example is it's nowhere near its monthly expected move at this point. You have a lot of space to go down. So, if you have a lot of space to go down, these little curlovers should matter to you and say, I don't want to risk money for upside if we're curling down pointing to where? Pointing to that yellow line. So, I need this to prove that it doesn't want to go down to that yellow line. Right now, it's saying it does. Right? Right now, technically, this is saying this is more probable than this. But if this would confirm up, it's really close to the center line. If this would confirm up, you not only have divergence, but you have higher low. If this would confirm up, you have the potential to squeeze. So, the actual, that's going through the confirmations and the confirmations for a management. and then if this 15-minute curls up, if I just see a green bar on that histogram, just like here, just like here, notice I'm hovering my mouse for a reason, by the way, right there. You see that green tick down here? Once it goes green, it's crossed. If that bar is positive above this nine, then I say, okay, I can attempt. We failed. We curl back up in the 15-minute, just the same way with that little green line, green bar on the histogram. We do that, I can be back in. I can just go right back to my plan originally. And then, the second time, if this is able to do that, then it becomes way more probable to see some kind of 15-minute positive trend begin, which means 15-minute positive trend, you'll get probably two moves, and those two moves will lead to a two-hour squeeze to potentially 217 for this week. That's a danger area. So that immediately is a, for me, the one, two, three decisions we talked about yesterday around these expected moves for like profit-taking purposes, this would be, yeah, I'm probably taking it [02:00:02] Speaker 2: all off the table. Does that sum it up for you, hetero? Does that kind of [02:00:14] Speaker 1: give you a better outlook? Yeah, so using the 30-minute for a two-hour move, the overall goal here is see that two-hour curl up, see that two-hour climb [02:00:25] Speaker 2: up to there. Yes, thank you. Okay, good, good, good, good. Awesome. [02:00:36] Speaker 1: Because that's like, that's the best I can put it. Look, we go, look at that daily expected move. Very nice. But, daily expected move, but look at this. Do I want to be bullish right now? Or do I think risk is a little high? Now, your risk tolerance could be higher than mine. Maybe you want to be like, hey, yeah, this is curled down, but I want to hold on to it because it's hitting the daily expected move and we could bounce from there, so I'm going to watch it for just a little bit longer. Right? Your risk tolerance could be higher than mine. I like to actively react most of the time. But there are times, like with, say, even Amazon. The way Amazon looks, there are times where it's getting a little wonky, but I'll still hold on to it sometimes. But Amazon was an easy management. Always on my chart. Hey, that's awesome. I'm glad to see that bogey. That's great. I'm glad you're showing up to the shows, getting that info. That's awesome. Daily moves and monthly moves and weekly moves all coming into play for the SPY yesterday. That's so crazy. And then we land in the 68% zone. If you did this, if you just said, I'll take a little bit off that daily or the weekly expected move and we landed back in that zone, congratulations. That took some balls. [02:01:56] Speaker 2: If you did that, that takes some balls. Yeah, exactly. [02:02:06] Speaker 1: The same thing should be true on the shorter time frames as the big ones. And Mama Bear just got here, guys, so give me a moment. [02:02:14] Speaker ?: Thank you. [02:02:44] Speaker 2: So I'm going to talk to them and I'm going to say that you're here [02:03:12] Speaker 1: so I have to go bye-bye to them so that we can build a tower. Okay? [02:03:17] Speaker ?: Yeah. [02:03:18] Speaker 1: You want to say thank you? [02:03:21] Speaker ?: Yeah. [02:03:21] Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you, guys. Have a great rest of your day. I will have to hop off to help a baby girl. She wants to build a tower so I'm going to go build a tower. But thank you guys for joining. I hope that a lot of the information today was helpful and I hope that you guys are able to navigate what's going on here with everything that we talked about. seeing as most of the things that we brought up, I see as definitely the most probable based on these weekly and daily and even monthly expected moves. Thank you, guys. Have a great day. Peace out. Do you want to say peace out? [02:03:49] Speaker 2: Peace out. [02:03:50] Speaker 1: Good job. I don't know if I can hear that, but... [02:03:54] Speaker 2: Oh, don't push that. Don't push that. See you, guys. Have a good one. [02:04:07] Speaker ?: I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it. I don't know if I can hear it.