About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of 15% UP DAY! STOCK MARKET LIVE! from Money Making Market, published June 16, 2026. The transcript contains 18,091 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"good morning everyone out there if you're watching this live make sure to like and subscribe but also if you're not watching this live make sure to tune in Monday through Wednesday we will be here every single morning it looks like about a couple of hours or two and a half hours is what me and my..."
[00:00:00] Speaker 1: good morning everyone out there if you're watching this live make sure to like and subscribe but also if you're not watching this live make sure to tune in Monday through Wednesday we will be here every single morning it looks like about a couple of hours or two and a half hours is what me and my wife can really handle with this so thank you guys so much for joining today we'll get started in just a bit I do have to make a phone call in a moment about five minutes or so got to make a quick phone call so I will be making that call so we might have a little bit of silence in the first couple minutes or so morning guys
[00:00:55] Speaker 2: good morning senior buenos dias yeah so we'll get started in a bit I just don't
[00:01:04] Speaker 1: want to get into it when I have to make that it's gonna be like a 10-minute phone call so I'll just let you guys have these real quick if you guys need daily weekly moves and things like that I just have to make that call for just a moment here but I'll say hey I'll say good morning for a couple of minutes before I got to do that everyone have a good weekend everyone's got to come in here and tell me what they did for the weekend I know that we were looking at the fact that volatility had that 85% probability for a down day huh oh we'll do a little talk on that as well this is the fourth yeah this one would be the fourth volatility reading I believe which would mean if it gets it wrong this time oh it got 75% of the last ones we've seen update today it definitely looks like it it looks like it and this is where we were talking about the weak signals here for volatility as well this is why if you did watch who watched the macro update but I just don't want to get into it before because I have to make a phone call in two minutes but if you watch the macro update I did this on purpose over the weekend two drunk on Saturday then having to look over to children and say oh man I stopped drinking when I had kids I used to be a big drinker I would drink I get drunk like three to five times a week I'm not even gonna lie I completely stopped when I had kids I mean I think I went a couple more times and then I just went bad this ain't for me bears are trapped yeah we were talking a lot about the bear trap happening down here we'll talk about volatility getting this one wrong and why it makes some sense but the important part over the weekend was I was watching the macro video like if you think the macro video is an accident when the weekly videos coming out on Sunday the macro video usually talks about something that's very very important what was the thing in the macro video I know I was having to talk like this because I didn't I didn't want any chance of me waking up baby girl even though they're in a completely different room but anyway we were talking a lot about just this point right here right if the daily MACD curls up then should I still be saying stock market crash at that moment the answer that is no all right the answer that was simply no so we were talking about that two hour rotates early it's gonna be rough if we come up to these areas we can still make a lower high and that drop can be significant but we'll talk about that in a moment all right guys I got to do this phone call but this was very important this is why I put macro videos out there because this is the risky thing right now and the way that this is really nice that we talked about over the weekend is this is positive and if you go to our Sunday video you hear us say the whole time yeah we're talking about the 85% probability for a down day right but it's also like okay but what's that down day gonna be it's gonna be a pullback to go higher so it's unfortunate because I would have loved to see this opportunity again early in the morning that would have been nice all right guys we'll talk about that in just a brief moment coming outside the daily expected move when I get back I will give you the second standard deviation daily expected move to the upside here I don't think this thing will fade it might fade a little bit today but I don't think it's like toasted by any means like I don't think this is a trap just yet if we're gonna trap people we're gonna trap them into expiration so we'll pay attention at that purple line all right guys we'll get you that info in just a moment on a call sorry guys I will say I can probably be done with the call and it depends 10 minutes we'll say 10 minutes all right be right back guys keep it chatting in there and make sure to if we see anybody new you guys be nice to them all right yeah D Baron that's pretty much it and we'll discuss it pretty much at the open
[00:05:13] Speaker 2: we'll discuss it so be right back guys
[00:05:26] Speaker ?: you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you
[00:12:54] Speaker 2: okay
[00:12:55] Speaker ?: okay
[00:12:55] Speaker 1: we can get started here um defer I guess the first thing I want to do is just get you guys second standard deviation let's go ahead and do that oops wrong button let's go ahead and get you guys this just in case we'll get it for the SPY if I can uh find it properly smh is in the uh patreon by the way smh weekly expected moves okay seven fifty seven sixty seven
[00:13:29] Speaker 2: mmm that might be asking a lot
[00:13:35] Speaker 1: but either way we understood this this weekend as one thing right we understood this wasn't crossed down that was mentioned hey we can just continue right that's kind of the 15% that's why today you're getting that 15% update you're getting something different that happens a lot of the time when you form these type of signals you'll start to see a violation so throughout the turmoil volatility can go up and down 10% and get it right a lot of the time there was I think one instance over here I think there was two this might be three or something like that at least this was probably three and it got it right every single time then we get this instance of four but now we have bottoming signals so this would be one two three okay that's 75% that's pretty close to 85% so you're starting to get to the realm where failing one of these makes some sense uh so I just wanted to point that out and we knew that this was not a bearish tilt from the 30 minute chart what was our bearish signal for the week if the two hour was able to cross down even if the two hour cross is down early on in the week which would have been very nice if the two hour would have crossed down early on in the week can curl down into expiration and then we can see some kind of bottoming signal to give us the the hint that the daily charts going to curl up so do we see that hint just yet and then we can see some kind of bottoming signal to give us the hint that the daily chart is going to curl up so do we see that hint just yet we can see some kind of bottoming signal to give us the hint that the daily chart is going to curl up so do we see that hint just yet you don't have a two hour divergence you don't have a two hour higher low just yet but if this is able to remain positive for this week aka do something like this then you'll go positive and it starts to become more probable as you get to these areas to make higher lows though we would be tapping into the very risky area so I think it depends on how fast we hit there and then do we see major resistance come in right away because you have no you do not have any signal that suggests that like volatility is going to just scream to the upside in fact gapping below the 1683 makes me kind of think we want to go all the way down to 1504 before we see a two hour reaction for a pullback so this means that volatility is very likely to need to make divergences down by what down by 1504 so if I'm immediately thinking this is really deep this is going to need some divergences or a higher low watch for a higher low it's just when you're squeezing like this you're very likely to more so make divergence I should be open to hey when that two hour is going to pull back I'll see a divergence like this I may because it's so far from the center line I might need to see a triple divergence like this before we get a two hour pullback but now the market looks a lot different right just because of this little move right here the market starts to look a lot a lot different I think if we go over to futures and pull up the two hour chart here you are well positive I mean look at this so as of right now if this started to say pull back it would pull back into these areas maybe right here and just continue to the upside the risky thing here would be that the four hour chart still curls down right here in this middle ground because if the four hour chart curls down in this middle ground like right now then that would be risky but if we get the second two hour move this can keep going up and up and up and up and it starts to become less and less probable to see some kind of downturn aka the market's doing something here that says uh this daily can cross up soon it's in a very bullish tilt all of a sudden and uh we need to consider if there's trap signals this week for sure around vixpiration and around thursday i mean you got to think about vixpiration yeah we get retail sales before the open but on vixpiration we will get the fed interest rate decision later in the afternoon fed economic uh projections but also the fed press conference um 30 minutes later so later in the afternoon you will get that this week on vixpiration so it will be an interesting week ahead we'll have to consider what's going on but the two hour chart in the futures is really suggesting hey even if we wanted to pull back on like the two hour scale we can figure this out so by bringing this to my own attention i can look at this two hour and say hey if this goes positive by any means yes i will say if this crosses down we're at risk right i'm not going to be going bullish there but i will pay attention if some kind of higher low pops up that would be very very critical for these charts so the 30 minute is your display of this the 30 minute by the center line would be potentially the next opportunity we'll see if we're able to just squeeze up to here and watch out for any lower highs watch out for any kind of divergence in the near price action while that two hour is close to the center line if we can build up to tuesday ish area you know late tuesday afternoon with a 30 minute divergence okay but as of right now this is really changing the status of the market moving this fast if you if you really wanted to see like a reversal signal here it would have been kind of nice to go a little bit higher then you pull down then you curl back to the upside you get to that weekly and then you start to create divergence over here this would be a lot better i think so considering we are going up really fast if we're able to hold these levels then get some kind of pullback to then go higher this would be your last bet but you have to see if this two hour during that time is able to go positive because then you might have to pay attention to both it would still be in the risky spot saying hey maybe i'm not exactly bullish here and if i think it's good it's some kind of crash if i see another signal if i see five reasons maybe to take some kind of lower high here then okay i have to live with that decision and have that one percent guy on my shoulder that says but the two hour went positive so if you see any kind of two hour higher low start to shape up you gotta flip the script really fast because that means the daily scale can curl up here and if the daily scale curls up this week even after a little pullback or something like that if we ever curl up you're gonna point directly to this monthly expected move so we'll be watching that very carefully i still think there is potential for a trick and trap here i want to review the dollar and you see how the dollar is starting to push down to these levels if we are going to see major volatility come in that we most likely need to see the dollar actually growing if the dollar is going down while the market is going up that's very very normal so if the daily is able to cross down here then we are in a daily pullback mode you still have some room to the center line notice no divergence like when we called the last bottom no divergence there no divergence here like we called this bottom for the dollar that was when we were talking about the top for the overall market but notice we did see those trap signals before so we did see the dollar do what it normally does it's does that time area where it kind of goes up and then finally the market starts to react to it as it elevates even higher so dollar usually does bottom before the market does top that is very very good to know and knowing that hey the daily scale has an opportunity to turn down here but it's positive means i need to watch for what i need to watch for this daily trap just in case remember that the sby did not have it on the macd at the same time so if we come up to these type of areas we just want to watch for any kind of two hour divergence in the near term so if this hasn't crossed up yet it still has some time for that as you can see so it's very likely according to your weekly expected moves at least that we hang out in this area for a bit if it's unexpected right if this move is unexpected which it is for the day right now if we come up to these areas we can still see resistance there but it would make sense to end outside of our weekly expected move this week going over the queues you have weekly ranges here as well you see that the queues are actually on the two hour chart trying to do what trying to go positive as of right now so if you roll right now you would be at risk of seeing some kind of downside the problem is the 30 minute chart is so positive here that we have no inclination that that two hour chart is going to roll at this moment volatility is just breaking down so i don't see an argument for the big role just yet and i actually see an argument for daily charts curling to the upside because we're in such positive trends that's always something we want to watch for do we ever get daily confirmation because that will change a lot on how we look at this market iwm able to go to these type of levels is exactly what we wanted to see just a little bit sooner would have been nice right when that that confirmation over in these areas would have been very nice but we do make some good things here right divergence into a higher low curls into positive territory where did we say you can target if all this happens you can start to target 295.67 very very nice there the two hour chart was able to curl up the two hour chart was able to extend it here nothing about this was um against the norm what i would say about iwm now is they might have to remake reversal signals this is a very bullish move all of a sudden rotation can start to take place we'll look for any kind of two hour divergence outside of this annual expected move that will be very very critical for iwm daily expected moves are posted there if you want to pause the video and get those for a moment while we go look at things like this the two hour chart here for apple is still suggesting it needs higher low it needs divergence you still have very strong sellers but remember apple on the daily scale is saying i am potentially an opportunity so be aware of that tesla with the lower high says hey i'm i'm probably not an opportunity but if i curl up then i am right so if this curls to the upside then we would consider that we can test this high maybe even go make a new one over here pay attention to your weekly expected moves patreon members and remember that uh in the little description underneath the moves i couldn't add it to the um to the table the table screenshot we normally send out so if you want weekly expected moves for smas just look in the description there and if you want to join patreon to get the smh miz we'll we'll see if we'll get them out this week but during the live show that is but if you want them right now just go on over to patreon if you would like to join just to try it out daily scale turns up here that'd be a good thing for tesla the two hour chart is still negative so if we're able to reject here then you would be at risk of testing the logo and to make a new one we'll look for two hour divergence as the daily scale is really close to the center line notice we did get a daily a two hour divergence on the uh rsi down there for this move so we'll see if this is able to build back but you probably need to see more positivity the 30 minute chart is overall positive so we do not see any inclination of a role just yet amazon this is one we were talking about ended up being very complex but also 30 minute divergence right in here with the rejection ended it this is below the monthly expected move so with the two hour curls up here you still have a lot of room right you really want to be taking back like 256 50 to really say like yes this is bullish right we would like to see something like this nice little harry potter if we fail in negative territory if we fail before we get there well then we can see some kind of two hour roll where we actually end up testing the lows if we form a two hour divergence outside of a monthly expected move i will be very excited at the end of the month to take that because the daily scale would be very simple daily we would be looking for a potential lower high or a new high because of the positioning of the macd leaning a little bit more towards lower high but if i see any kind of two hour divergence if i see any kind of two hour higher low well then i can say okay i'm targeting maybe next month's monthly expected move i can take that over here and target that monthly expected move if i see some kind of divergence then i can do the same thing just might have a little bit nicer of a you know position bam right there target the monthly expected move so we'll see what takes place here a lot of stocks look like this where it's like hey if i form a good two hour higher low or two hour divergence then while everyone's thinking crash like we were suggesting can happen here not necessarily crash but a correction on the weekly can happen if the dailies turn up here then that has been violated at least for the moment let's look at nvidia or something and just go hey nvidia as well this is really suggesting daily pull back to the center line uh this is a very wide rejection if you will you know normally you like it to kind of really tap into there but we did technically get a two hour lower high we'll see what takes place with this but if the daily curls up test these levels right in here is what i would say maybe you can go make a new one we see that the two hour chart is still negative so if we see a roll while that's negative we should expect a test of the lows or making a new one but the 30 minute chart is trying to stay well positive here so we don't see any signs of those rules right now either i just wanted to point that out big move from amd with a 7.81 move we can see how bullish how positive this 30 minute is so do you think this is stopping most likely it is not most likely we will just see the next opportunity as a 30 minute pullback some kind of 30 minute pullback to maybe even take care of this gap and then be off to the races to the upside i wanted to check on yeah because if you pull back from here your weekly expected move is here so you don't have a lot of room i hate that thing and then it pulls down and then you go up to that weekly move that would be a very very simple thing to do for amd um the two hour chart would then be able to extend and go positive and we would start to look for what we would start to look for this right we squeeze through we set up those 30 minute divergences you roll come down these areas and then you cross through with something like this going on so we'll see if that's able to take place i'm sure people will say cup and handle in some fashion uh amc we do have weekly moves for amc we will have a daily expected new on thursday for amc remember we can't create them for amc um because of the weirdness the the expirations got kind of closed up for amc so just be aware of that you have extended across divergence with the two hour chart you have 30 minute divergence potentially going to form in the near price action we'll see if that takes place you do have it on the rsi not on the macd at the same time so uh if we're able to get like one more curl up that'd be nice for a little hint kind of curl up like this and then just rotate down that would be very normal for amc as of right now though the two hour chart is curled up so there's always the chance but once you start to confirm the two hour down especially with divergences you want to consider that those divergences are there and i would need to really see a successful two hour higher low to say that any of that's going to be violated because the signal right here even though it's extended across even with a lot of room to that center line where you would watch for the higher low you have to consider that there's divergence and that the daily scale can cross to the downside here if the daily scale crossed down the downside you do have extended across divergence and potential divergence on the rsi in the near price action on the daily scale this still would say daily pullback that can get a higher low that would be the first thing to watch for if it starts to go negative you do have those divergences behind it so it's kind of like hey you know are we just going to get a two hour pullback are we going to just it's kind of like this are we going to keep squeezing now are we going to get a two hour pullback then squeeze or is that two hour divergence going to cause this to daily pullback and then the daily gives a higher low when we squeeze or is the daily going to go down too far that's kind of all it is for amc we'll mark it today since we can look at it
[00:30:07] Speaker 2: gold with the nice move djt nice move all righty first 30 minutes of the session not bad though all right let me pull up chat
[00:30:28] Speaker 1: oh that's great man that third one is garbage i don't know what the third one is that's awesome grandpa i hope you enjoyed it i hope it gave you a little bit of a different outlook on a few things that you probably utilize every single day
[00:30:54] Speaker 2: good morning colin we gotta say good morning colin out there so yeah dollar dropping off means this
[00:31:00] Speaker 1: can be a real move and a daily pullback for the dollar kind of makes sense
[00:31:07] Speaker 2: and the dollar pulls back people going out of cash into assets well into different assets
[00:31:17] Speaker 1: calls or puts today uh the overall discussion here was overall we are going to get some kind of two-hour squeeze from all these reversal signals so the play was up for sure yeah the play was up now you're in this area where you're by the weekly expected move so you're already like thinking about making decisions this is a very fast move i'm sure the money values of everything that you got out there if you're able to you know understand or dictate this well maybe even on an individual stock you'd have to consider decision making today in my opinion already i think already you would because you're you're still at risk of seeing like a 30 minute retracement so you can literally do all this you can hang out here all day and then tomorrow you can just pull back like this back down into like a 7 43. so i'm not eager to get bullish here i'd be eager to more so get bullish here because we were already bullish down here right if you're if you're getting bullish now you're very late
[00:32:22] Speaker 2: very late
[00:32:29] Speaker 1: and then watch we're gonna we're gonna squeeze like this right when i say you're late but according to your weekly expected move with almost the second standard deviation as well you're in pretty much the realm of what decision making opportunities just zoom out to get a better look at
[00:32:44] Speaker 2: what have i didn't how you doing
[00:33:00] Speaker 1: credit box in the highs and lows well i'd see if you and if you notice that's utilized a lot less so if you can really see on youtube grandpa this is why the live video is so good you can kind of tell which ones i utilize more often um like a potential i guess you could say like a box you could draw up is like maybe in here you'd say like okay maybe right in here right but the box is just to give you a guideline so a lot of the some of the things we talk about are kind of like guidelines but the ultimate decision making tools are like indicators price action you know what does it look like from the weekly standpoint because if you test in here you're just tagging the weekly expect to move if you reject off then you could you could have argument for this right you could have argument for this coming all the way down but understanding that this happened very quickly and therefore looking at the futures to see that two hour go really positive if you do this you could still end up just keep curling up to the upside so um this is more so as a guideline but it's not something that's utilized heavily if you notice i don't you if you don't see me pull it up all the time then you know that is something that i think is important and you can utilize but at the same time the main things i'm utilizing are going to be the indicators are going to be stuff like price action are going to be stuff like multiple time frame analysis are stuff like what are stuff like the weekly expected moves if that makes some sense
[00:34:36] Speaker 2: oh yeah that's right martial law what uh dude i miss you guys well look i'll look at one for you you want to look at a was a iq
[00:34:49] Speaker 1: okay yeah this is i mean you have the trade you have the 30 minute trade right in here same thing as the spy pretty much yeah a divergence right but this showed on the mac dnr side same time so a little different but then you get the like higher low but it actually creates the double bottom this is actually the same thing it's saying hey okay we're gonna we're gonna try to take this back we're gonna get a two hour move to the upside okay two hour move to the upside comes if you fail that move while you're negative there's a lot of problems so looking at the 30 minute and going hmm that's you know it's got some room here if we can carve out that higher low we can continue but if we start to fail too hard we don't get that new new higher low and instead we go too deep get a lower high then the two hour can start to rotate down you'd still say test logo make a new one but as of right now that's an extremely good move so uh it could be very very nice especially if this daily can cross up i still would like to see a two hour higher low at some point even if we hang out up here hang out up here hang out up here all week long then we pull back into end of month then we actually curl to the upside i think that would be a better easier decision if i didn't trust the 30 minute divergences down here uh for stuff like aiq um we don't necessarily have a range for a good ai specific company i mean all these companies utilize ai in some fashion but we don't necessarily have a specific one that we can utilize to be like oh that hit its weekly move so i gotta look at aiq with a with a heavy uh skeptical guy lens right this guy you don't really have your weekly range for this and you can't really really derive information from anywhere else at least i don't think we probably need to add we definitely need to add something like that so yeah overall this is good for this stock this is very good right the way that you really get trapped in here is if you just go that little bit higher and you create a 30 minute divergence right here or 30 minute lower high right over here so it's considering this is a big gap up and if it is able to hold it does not fade completely in the morning here then it's very likely that we just continue to see positivity for the rest of the week going into vixpiration or expiry or opx once you see that you start to look for pullbacks right after opx
[00:37:15] Speaker 2: at least that's that's how i think about it that's a great move so we'll see if it holds
[00:37:30] Speaker 1: loving the weekly vix setup i mean vix on the weekly did this car this was able to cross right no it wasn't able to cross okay i like this too this is why i'm saying like you have to be prepared for like just one more daily divergence right it's like this is vixpiration so what happens as we get into expiration well just before or it could be literally in that like 10 days usually so a couple days before a couple days after you start to look for some kind of dramatic repricing anywhere in that window so it could be like two days before the day of two days after like 10 sessions worth you can start to see this happen so this is not surprising that it's happening around vixpiration but we would really like to see this daily dip down and then if the daily crosses back up oh this was just a big trick and trap but if we go too deep here we violate divergence we we don't do anything we don't make higher low okay you just see this start to break down you gotta know that this market's going back to bullish so the daily scale should be able to tell us plenty about the um about volatility which will give us some good direction for the market because kind of right now you're you're you're back to hey the bulls are taking over for a moment um the bears are probably very surprised by this and chasing you know trying to flip the script and chase hopefully they're not shorty well i guess we can check a little bit kind of in the middle so still some people trying to say short to short squeeze if you will uh it's behaving a lot like a bear market short squeeze but this could potentially because we are still in positive territory for a lot of these it could be considered a bottom very soon so we'll see if that takes place i'll shout out to a few people who did take the course over the weekend uh i did suggest because there were some questions and that's perfectly fine to ask questions i did suggest coming to the live show for those questions so we'll see if those people pop up today if they have any questions about it
[00:39:48] Speaker 2: let me know that was mainly about stuff in there so we will talk about it here on the live show that's the benefit to showing up to the live show
[00:40:05] Speaker 1: yeah we can check on tesla again real quick uh tesla once again divergence right divergence leads to what a two hour move the two hour has what divergence on the rsi not on the macd at the same time so what does that mean for me if the two hour rolls i can still say test the lows or even go make a new one for that divergence but the 30 minute is so positive that the best thing to pay attention to right now for nvidia is continuation even if a pullback happens continuation is the best thing to watch for uh i don't think i updated my other charts yeah we'll do that for tomorrow i will update my other charts i'm just going to look here 435.03 so your weekly expected move is all the way up here so if we do this and then we pull back and then you see that confirmation where do you think we're going i'm just asking i'm genuinely asking answer the question please if we would see a little bit more upside or even just start to pull back now and then you see a successful higher low on the 30 minute chart where do you think we're going with a heavy probability christian question we're going to the right yes well i mean you're going up and to the right right all right if i do this and then i pull back and i see no reversal signals here then the most probable thing is just continue at what level do we always watch for while we watch the weekly expected move so you would say okay well even if i was late if i can see a pullback here and catch that well then i can target something like weekly expected move and i already have my plan hey i'm going to take full profit hey i'm going to hold on to one runner and sell three hey i'm going to blah blah blah blah blah hey i'm going to risk it all right and just hold on to it because it's going to a second standard deviation not a decision i really make often at all but a simple 30 minute pullback can be a great setup for tesla here now the key thing though is is that 30 minute pullback in positive territory or does it break down too far if we break down too far we go negative you start to look for divergences you start to look for rolls off of the five day and then if we make that 30 minute divergence down here with a two hour cross that would be like best case scenario for taking a position as far as the daily scale goes for tesla remember this it tried to do the lower high it's saying we're going down how does that get violated if the daily curls up that's why i really watch for like two hour higher lows uh two hour divergence that would be very nice to tell you that hint we don't see that hint just yet i did see microsoft in the chat there so microsoft negative at this point we see some structure that we're fearful of probably and we see that we just broke the low so there is the indicator suggesting hey we can build this all the way back we're not that far off from the center line right if the daily curls up it's saying yeah we could do this but what's the very obvious structure here price action disagrees price action says you took out the low even if you curl up you are negative so you want to pay attention to lower highs so if this is able to curl up we want to really watch out for this shape i'd really be watching out for this shape with those divergences that you saw at these highs up towards that 460 marked off there the two hour chart though is negative okay so are we going to get that daily reaction now microsoft could be an opportunity here i like the ones that really look like they could shape up divergence if this came up all week and then drop back down and then people got really scared of the next spike but you see a turnaround with the divergence confirmation on the macd it kind of looks like this and then you see that kind of confirmed through that signal line right here that crosses to the upside that would be a good signal to suggest that daily move can come when that daily move comes i could just say hey my because of the status of this i know that the indicator is saying hey we can go all the way back up to here but at the same time price action disagrees so i really heavily want to watch this level very carefully and just kind of keep that there and then i want to go okay if i get a daily move up to that level then that could be uh that could be an area of risk all right and you'll probably see i'm going to say it now you'll probably see a monthly move or a weekly move right at that level that will really likely happen you will see a weekly expected move or a monthly expected move start to pop up in this area this month or next month but as of right now you do not have this set up so we still have to wait kind of be patient so are you at the actual bottom we'll have to see the 30 minute chart is trying to go positive here so this isn't a bad thing by any means it's not bad but you would like to take back that five day and i should put this in white so you're not confused by the way that's not a daily expected move um you would like to take this back and then you would like to set up the higher low to keep going if this starts to roll now you would be at risk of being like all right we're just going to keep rolling looks good i mean overall it's not bad it looks like a better like right when you look at these things too you just kind of go like you know is this an opportunity right is this an opportunity well at least you're buying some 31 off right even if you're just investing and you're like i just want to buy at discounts you're like all right at least i'm getting something maybe when it's cheaper right at least i'm buying it not at the actual like high here 14 off from that high right there so there are you know ways to look at this from the investing perspective over time if you're just like a holder forever and you go hey microsoft had a 30 dip it recently had in the near term you know trend or whatever it's like okay that's a that's a 14 to 15 dip all right this looks pretty good i'm just gonna i like that price all right you can say i like that price and then you look at the weekly scale and you go oh that weekly though that weekly though is a little bit negative so if i choose to buy in here i understand what i'm doing but i understand also that a weekly divergence would be very very nice for an investment opportunity really like those weekly divergences that looks like what i see as of right now though 30 minutes just trying to go positive a little bit different for microsoft a little bit more susceptible to see a two-hour divergence for microsoft compared to the other ones we've looked at
[00:46:50] Speaker 2: may god bless man
[00:46:54] Speaker 1: if you're patient enough to wait one to two years oh people do that you know you can stack over time like a lot of people say the like uh what do they say they say like oh at the beginning of every month beginning of every month put in 500 and i'm like okay but if you learn some of these skills then you can say well at the beginning of the month look at the stock market and see if it is bottoming in some way if it has a at least a cheaper price in some way or is it at a high and then i could say well let me wait let me wait till halfway through the month where we could get some kind of pullback then when i see it start to reverse around i can just say okay now that you know immediately the decision making can be better even if you exclude a lot of that and just say at the beginning of the month i'm going to see if we're in a pullback okay if we're in a pullback then i can say in here is a better buy than any of this in here right even in the now right beginning of the month beginning of the month you'd be like okay well i'm buying all the way at the tops well why would that be a bad thing well that would be a rough thing because i'm hitting the annual expected move do i want to buy stocks even if i monthly buy at this level or did i maybe want a daily pullback and the daily pulls back like this and i just choose to buy it down here at least that's a little bit better price if i'm just adding over time so there's there's a million different ways to do this game you know all right so far 30 minute move is able to hold first yeah we can look at meta and abgo let's do meta first meta once again uh some divergence here on the magd not on the rsi led to a two hour reaction now this is a very negative two hour reaction but it's very straight up uh so when it's very straight up it doesn't kind of like kind of go like straight up linger over straight up again like this a little bit more sideways we'll see if that still takes place but as of right now it's just up if you continue to just do this or you grow really fast or even your negative right but the way that your negative is just straight up then you always want to watch for the higher lows at that point so you have to visually have a good eye for like hey how fast did this move come if it came really really fast um like say straight up then there's a lot of buyers underneath it where saying oh yeah this type of move right here is just going to completely fail can be a risky boat really want to watch the 30 minute chart there the 30 minute will if this is some kind of squeeze into a trap it will give you the lower high it will it will give you a divergence it will give you a lower high like a heavy heavy majority of the time that's all i see there really i mean the daily scale here yeah if you curl up you got a shot i believe this weekly would be better to look at here and say hey that could be a weekly higher low if i get a weekly higher low just carve it out of its own grit that's fine if that curls up then meta might be a great opportunity and then you look at meta and you go is it i mean a great opportunity means a discount right when i buy something for for a christmas present maybe even throughout the year i'm looking for a sort of a discount well that's 25.5 off if you saw something you really wanted if you really want meta and maybe you're a collector of meta of some sort if you want to put it that way then you would say okay well at least it's 25.5 cheaper right now okay i'm gonna buy a thousand bucks worth or i'm gonna buy two shares right maybe you just do that every single month who knows but overall this weekly if that curls to the upside that would say positivity is coming kind of crazy right kind of crazy to see that for meta but that positivity doesn't have to be like full-fledged reversal it can be but if we just build up to here we reject from 736 again we reject into negative territory again things can go wrong but it does tell you that investing wise this is at least better decision making than say maybe taking a divergence at the top right uh divergence at the top here you can kind of see this daily double top there divergence across kind of extended so did was able to go negative so you could be like hey i'm gonna take it with a grain of salt but uh pretty significant and pretty near enough on that rsi just to be like hey worrisome avgo on the weekly scale you can see this this is not a celebratory signal so you have a contradiction here or at least a big difference between like something like meta and something like avgo uh avgo uh avgo you know amd nvidia smh in general is just like really leading the way for this push and i'm seeing what i'm starting to see a weekly divergence here right i see that weekly divergence i see it plainly right there i see it playing right there is there room to the center line yes could we curl up again and violate all this yes could we curl up again and make a triple divergence yes so could we do this and then just curl to the upside that's more so what the spy says is going to happen here by the way we're just taking that into consideration with avgo but if this were to cross i have to treat it seriously because this signal technically says we're going to take out this low the signal says we're going to take this out then we're going to come back then we're going to give you the lower high to really say this divergence mattered that's what this signal can really say so if we start to see this confirmed this should be looked with a big lens of risk if we look at the daily scale how would be how would that not confirm right how would the weekly not be able to confirm down curl the daily chart up if the daily chart curls up here yes there's a big wave of sellers yes we're negative in some way so you always watch for lower high but we're still close to that center line so if we're still close to the center line we can see this build back so it means what i don't necessarily want to be bearish if that daily curls up but if i see that daily curl up and then i see it curl back down then i can really start to get bearish very nice uh let's look at two hour scale two hour scale here still negative so a really really good do you see the difference between this and meta so meta doing this is a lot different than avgo kind of just doing this because the avgo is doing this and then just fails comes down then we look for the divergence point around that dividend and then bam to the upside all right we'll see if all that takes place this can be a great hint in the future so thanks for bringing it up 30 minute chart as of right now is in the weird you see how much more weird avgo is so this immediately should start to be like okay this is not as strong this is not as strong of a positive trend this is not the bulls taking full control this is very much so still a battle and the bears still have from what we can see in front of us the bears would still have somewhat control of this
[00:54:03] Speaker 2: right thanks y'all smiles i appreciate that micron we go like a micron i don't mind
[00:54:13] Speaker 1: this one see it this one's a lot different as well right so we see a big difference between these 30 minutes right that the the avgo 30 minute is right here the mu or micron 30 minute is way up here so if you are able to say pull back maybe even take care of that gap retest the five day and that curls up that's a bullish trend that means you want to go higher so then we want to look at the two-hour chart and we go oh that didn't have divergence that was just kind of by the center line that never had divergence on the macd or rsi probably looking for continuation but we did get a negative move so there's a few things to derive here if i curl down now risky if i can climb climb climb take out that high then anything that will two hour pullback will be just that two hour pullback now if we are going to see some good things from something like micron then something you will see here is the first move should be pretty big and the second move should be pretty big so if we get this to be pretty big then you will actually stretch this macd out it's very unlikely to make a divergence point with what's happened as of right now very unlikely to make a divergence point you would more likely need to see that now in the near price action to say this is reversing to the downside all right and then you look at the daily and you go hey that doesn't have any divergence or anything like that so can we continue to see a daily pullback yes but can we curl to the upside and just see a move positive in some sort yes you just because you don't have divergence on mac drsi so if this thing curls up there's just like like really heavy heavy probability that you're going to see a new high um you do have forms of reversal though on the daily scale you have a divergence right here in the near price this is kind of what i'm saying about the two hour i'd like to see something like this but i'm saying also hey let's let's continue to cry i would rather us not curl that daily up now let it get a little deeper and then come over here and create that point that's what i that's what i would like but stocks don't do what i like they do what they want you know they do they do whatever they're going to do so to our role here would be more correcting most likely if we can extend though that's where you'd start to look for those pullbacks i'm saying right now would be more the risky thing
[00:56:47] Speaker 2: keep it on the 30 minutes so we keep an eye on how positive this thing goes look at some stuff real quick i gotta take a look at something real quick maybe two minutes
[00:57:26] Speaker 1: i'm going to try but i keep being late and my wife's back still hurts so um i keep being late to picking up baby girl for her so
[00:57:47] Speaker 2: i want to make sure not to do that today all right what you guys thinking i'm here as well all right i'm back we're good
[00:58:08] Speaker 1: uh pnc i mean i can look at cg and pnc as long as they're decent yeah they're decent uh i could tell just from price usually two hours very so this is this is kind of like the uh the meta thing right this is why meta you're you're probably more likely to see higher lows let's do this backwards weekly scale potential divergence here on the weekly scale for the rsi this means that this would be somewhere where that talk we just had right am i getting a discount am i investing well i have a signal that suggests that 37 off could be a good thing maybe i just want to do that while it's down there because i'm investing and even if it went down to 160 or whatever i would maybe hold it you know i don't know the mentality behind this this stock that you do have but there are simple decisions of like i've done my research on the stock but i i see the weekly down here i don't want to buy these weekly highs so whenever i see a weekly opportunity to make a low i just maybe i even just wait for confirmation but that can leave you out so looking at the daily scale may help you oh okay i see a daily divergence that's flat here on the rsi if that curls up i'll just take it and then i'm just planning on holding this now if i'm not planning on holding this but maybe i'm planning on a short-term trade using just shares maybe i'm thinking options then right away you have to say that you know if you're just doing the shares then okay you're looking for a good reaction here and if maybe it creates a a divergence in the near price action you can hold through that because you're not losing big percentages right maybe you're you can wait for that and you can say hey if that you know goes too deep then i'm going to look for a reaction to get out and then buy at a different time right there's ways to to kind of move differently with options you really want to be sure because you're risking money and time will be against you so with options you would look at this and go there's a verse on the rsi but i see nothing on the macd that really says hey this weekly is going to turn around and i can take like a six month option or a three month option or in my case i like two month options but i'm not doing stuff like this a lot of the time it's a little bit tighter for me like two hour chart stuff so i'll do a daily move if i see a two hour divergence or two hour higher low so we went all the way down into can we get a daily move to the upside that's technically the trade that i would i'm looking at here do i see anything well considering that we were kind of slow but now we're kind of seeing this little scale up a little quickly here you're kind of seeing this point straight up for your macd you see how that's really curling up it's not looking like rounded by any means it can get there uh we would like to see this squeeze through further if you rotate down now you would say risk of going lower but if i make the two hour divergence then i have a reason for the daily to bounce considering that if i took this that the daily is negative then i would want to create a weekly expected move and i would simply want to target a weekly or a monthly expected move probably a weekly expected move and then just be like all right i'm done if we successfully get a two hour pullback that leads to a higher low i can go again right so how this would look is right if we make the this is if we make the divergence then we would come down like this we'd curl to the upside you'd kind of see two moves like this and then you would go okay i'm at that weekly move i'm done or maybe it would just be one straight shot two hour move we'll see but that was overall for the daily if we are seeing what we're seeing now continue and we scale up like this then that's where you're vertical to where those buyers are pretty strong and you look for a two hour pullback and then you say okay that's my opportunity so there's two ways to look at this if you want an opportunity a little bit sooner then you're probably in a risky spot you're kind of in a guess because all that has to happen is sells off and then divergence the better way to do this is wait for this one over here if you see too much upside you wait for that one over there and then the other way to look at this is if i have a divergence i look at it over here so the two key areas for a trade look to be something like this at least from how i like to do things now you can utilize that information however you'd like i know that we probably trade completely differently because we're two different humans it makes sense but those are the two opportunities that i would look for um in this stock my thoughts for today were we failed the 85 percent down day as of right now which means you're getting the 50 15 update which happens for a reason usually when you see that especially within just four instances without having to drop significantly lower to create those uh those scenarios for an upside move while the daily is still positive for the spy my inclination here is the bulls did enough work where we can curl up the daily chart soon as long as they can keep doing what they're doing for all week long and vixpiration and opex don't interrupt things i don't if energy goes up it's bad for the spy um it depends on the energy i think that's going up because i believe i mean you can probably look very quickly here i'll look because you can't necessarily and this is why i wanted to pull this up um you can't necessarily say if energy goes up it's necessarily bad for the spy the key thing is if energy goes up is there a a negative correlation to other stocks that are within the spy because the spy itself itself itself at least you know someone might understand better maybe i need to research more here but uh this is why i pulled it up the spy has energy stocks in it you know from the from what just simply asking google real quick it says about 3.5 percent of the spy has energy stocks so it would be do those energy stocks come with a negative correlation to a heavier percentage that is held by the spy right so if there's 3.5 of that of energy in the spy but there's 10 of the tech sector or something like that and then you see that the tech sector starts to sell off while energy grows then yes the spy can come come come down um because of that the spy can come down because energy is going up but that negative correlation most likely needs to take place but yes the spy has energy stocks within it so you can't necessarily say just because energy is going up that the spy will go down because technically if energy goes up the spy will see some positivity it's what's happening everywhere else does that make sense exactly it's light so what but the question is if energy goes up the spy goes down no energy if energy goes up the spy should technically go up it's if the other sectors while energy are going up uh start to go down then it starts to change right so we would say hey if i see energy going up but i see a major reversal signal on on qqq then we got a difference in opinion here all right then we might have a difference you could look at the just probably the the the heat map for a few days and things like that now what was the other one i wanted to look at the other one we'll see if i can look at it pnc needs uh needs a decent price decent amount of volume here it's a financial services it should be good uh the daily move here is very important the daily move here is very important because always at this stage you're going uh oh gosh that's going to be risky first of all let's look at this move and let's look at this move and let's see if we could have caught them right everyone's bearish here we know everyone's bearish here you took out every critical level in here lower high is very bad right could we see anything in here to give us that opportunity let's see all right so we look at this and we go okay i simply see what i see no divergence up into these points so i can negate a lot of this but this is most likely the first point i want to watch okay we come down and we make kind of a flat we make a lower low but it's flat on the closures that's kind of leaning towards double bottom the confirmation of that being right here at 202 40. most likely you got a 30 minute roll here that might have scared you out but hey if you waited for potentially the higher low and positive territory two opportunities right hold here with my guts or wait for the easier signal being the higher low and positive territory off to the races what happens to the upside this is very simple two hour move here uh i'm sorry yeah two hour right so two hour higher low here we should get a daily move to the upside monthly expected move gets tagged simple take profit we get two two hour moves sideways pull back into another one we set up a divergence the opposite direction we set up a divergence the opposite direction what starts to happen is we start to break down once we break down we see what we see the daily uh get close to the center line simple daily swing trade we'd say oh well if i get in here i can always see if the two hour fails and gives me a two hour pullback for a better opportunity so if i got in here and the two hour rolls i can say i'm out boom i'm right back in and then we scale to the upside so notice that two hour divergence on the downside led to a daily move to the upside a two hour divergence on the upside led to a daily move to the downside very simple here very good behavior here no real failures no big tricks and traps from what i've seen um pretty simple right just simple movement based on momentum so what can we derive from this do we see a divergence no do i see a lower high no so what's the most likely thing here the best opportunity for this is to pull back for you and then see a curl to the upside pull back get to the center line next opportunity is right there it can literally be that simple if we consider the daily scale with this now what else do we want to consider we want to consider hey what's this daily trend looking like well we just wiped out any point of divergence we just wiped out any point of divergence we just made a new move okay so this is very likely to go for what well we go up up up and away we pull back two hour pullback then we get a daily pullback then we can keep going so continuation here on a lot of scales and disappointment get those teeth clean but yeah two hour pullback looks like the next opportunity i want to hang if the bulls are going to take control once again this channel guys we're fine with bulls taking control we're fine with flipping the script right we trade like water so we were expecting maybe a flip of the script right that's why the macro video over the weekend was really heavily discussing and said we need to talk about this we need to talk about the daily scale and if that thing curls up because this can be a trap there's gonna be a bigger trap than even i expected right we've called it out as a bear trap all last week all last week we were saying a bear trap was building by them thank you to our monthly expected move but we were also considering that if this move would roll that'd be bad even if we get up here and roll that would be bad but if we can hang out up here and then see a successful higher low we can just keep going so we'll consider that most likely you'll you'll hang out by weekly expected move most likely you're going to be you're going to be up in these areas by uh wednesday i would say by at least i would say at least wednesday morning
[01:10:42] Speaker 2: if not wednesday afternoon towards the actual announcements
[01:10:50] Speaker 1: there's a lot of the time now people will see this and yes we can still see like up and down up and down like this but wednesday you'll probably be up in this area
[01:11:03] Speaker 2: we'll see what takes place though
[01:11:10] Speaker 1: but my my thoughts here are the 30 minute trends positive so talk positively about the stock market pullback should lead to buyer demand on the 30 minute when it becomes risky two hour curls down in negative territory and you see we're trying to tap into positive so if you're bullish though you want this to just extend you don't want this to go up to here and cross down you don't want it to even go to here and cross down you want it to extend if you're bullish you want to see this into a pullback into more upside then we start to talk about the daily again right if we see that all of this this is very very likely to see by the way so if we can see that that would be pretty cool that would take you directly in the end of month but as of right now i think just your your best practice here is just watch the 30 minute
[01:12:08] Speaker 2: that's how i see it
[01:12:11] Speaker 1: because you look at volatility you're like that thing's just falling like a brick the two hours getting so negative that even this looks like uh if we start to break through here we do that then people go from this right then then we're in the market that does this which is crazy because that's what bear markets do but it would say big trap by that annual move come down right break that previous low go too far up make a higher low go again trap again so you kind of have like trap trap into trap which weirdly enough that's starting to look like uh uh that one pattern oh gosh i can't remember it right now what's that topping pattern not ahead and shoulders it's like more elliott waivers use it and stuff but that would kind of look like that what am i trying to think of i'm sure someone in the chat will say it eventually yeah that's very very possible for the spy which means that the vix would see a shape like this right now right it would say trap with the double bottom trap with this divergence right here into a trap with the low
[01:13:37] Speaker 2: which would make a new all-time high for the spy we'll see if this shapes up because as of right now
[01:13:44] Speaker 1: that doesn't have to shape up i mean what if we go back into a bullish market again you see this do this and this and then no divergence shows up well then you get down to 12 12 and that's where the big traps happen by the end of the decade well considering the fact that this year you could see 8 000 uh you could literally see 8 000 lunar which i lunar did you change your name i feel like i've seen that uh i feel like i used to see that a profile pic five three five top is that what it is columbus hey columbus welcome back i miss seeing my our suit and tie always classy columbus out there yeah it's uh it's just it's a matter of like the bulls did something this week which means you know probably you know trump did something this week
[01:14:41] Speaker 2: oh gotcha gotcha what up sea bass thank you for the welcome back i appreciate that
[01:14:50] Speaker 1: because uh it's been a minute and i'm enjoying myself you guys i'm having a lot of fun with these live videos shout out to the wifey she we will be having to hop off in 30 minutes to help her out normally i'm going to try still to stick to like that that two hour two and a half hour three hour if i can uh but for now this is what we can do today we missed them krishna i'm glad i'm glad to see you guys back though i missed you guys too it's just it puts a different uh emphasis on the market for me when we do these live videos like you know looking at stocks analyzing uh to me gets sometimes dry because i've done it for so long but uh when you guys are here you bring up different stocks that i don't normally look at you make it more entertaining so thank you guys for being here yeah the the low volume weeks can lead to potential squeezes it just depends but yeah a lot of squeezes do happen on these shorter weeks it's just the low low volume can uh they can they can do whatever they want with stocks that's the scary part all right guys i'm gonna take a quick restroom break and i'll be right back
[01:16:30] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
[01:20:01] Speaker 2: We're back. What happened? We're back. What happened?
[01:20:06] Speaker 1: So I was heading towards a weekly high. Will it then turn down or continue to go up? I'm going to get my headphones on. I hate hearing my own voice too much. So what we would consider here, right? What you're considering is you're saying is the two hour, right? I mean, I'm assuming. Yeah. We'll look at SoFi. We'll give SoFi for sure. Because we have SoFi numbers to correlate. So we have numbers to help you out with that, Ben. So give me one moment here. When we're saying, hey, is this two hour going to reject here? This is the risky spot. If you just remember last week during a lot of YouTube videos, we kept saying like, this is a risky spot. This is a risky spot to go to, especially if you go there pretty fast. Now, notice we're getting there pretty fast. That's fine, right? Now we have to look for do we see something risky, right? We know a risky event is happening Wednesday, right? Overall, for the entire week, if I look at the economic calendar tomorrow, you'll get building permits and housing starts. Is that really is building permits and housing starts going to completely negate what Trump said? Is that really going to be the thing? Or is it probably better for me to watch like retail sales on Wednesday morning, maybe even the Fed interest rate decision in the Fed press conference, you would have to say that Wednesday is the risky day for up or downside because of the move that we've seen. So the way to look at this with technicals is say, hey, if this cross is down, even if it gets up to here, let's say we just we kind of like keep climbs a little bit slower now and we go up into Wednesday. Well, it really depends on the positioning of the MACD on that day. It will really depend on that. So if this two hour cross is down, then you are correct to believe what? Test of the low or make a new low would be very probable. But as we have that event and as we just got some of that going on and the 30 minute is so positive, we would like to see a hint before we just say, oh, we're going to go down here after being here. We're going to go down here. Right. Because we've seen that a little bit lately, at least on the daily scale. So and I think the weekly scale. So what we'd have to consider here is by, say, Wednesday, do we see a shape that looks risky? Do we see a 30 minute divergence like this? And then with that, where's the positioning of the MACD? The truth be told, if I see a divergence up here, I probably would consider shorting if the two hour for volatility was closer to the centerline. Notice that volatility is going further and further away from the centerline. This is what's giving a huge edge to the bullishness is you don't necessarily see the two hour reversing around for volatility at all. You don't even see 30 minute reversal signals for volatility at all. This is huge for the bullish move. This means like we would have to form those signals most likely by Wednesday and do them pretty quick. So all we have to do here to see if that two hour is going to roll is do I see this? Do I see this shape by Wednesday? And do I have still my plan for if it goes wrong, noticing that the two hour based on where it goes? Because if we climb up, up, up and away, like let's just say it goes dry. Let's say we go sideways into that event into Wednesday, Wednesday right here. So let's mark it off just so we can see kind of like Wednesday at, let's say, 1230, even though the Fed press conference will be an hour after that. A Fed press conference will be an hour after this. So if we climb like just just slowly up to that area, let's say weekly expected move, we just kind of sit, sit, sit, or we get that little 30 minute to do this. I want to watch out and see is this here by that date? Or is it here by that date? Do we see this kind of pop off? If you see that pop off and you're way up here, then you're really not paying attention to a test of the lows anymore, not until you see a two hour lower high, you're way more likely to do what pull back to curl up again, then we'll see if we get a trap at the end of the month. Right for the daily like triple divergence pretty much. So it really depends on this first two hour move in the positioning of the MACD around it. But until I see this 30 minutes show me weakness, I can't say that two hours going to confirm down until I see this happen, right? Or and I'd really like that to be more like this, probably. Or I see something like this. Right, something like that. I have to see weakness in some way to believe that two hours turning down. I see no weakness right now. That's where you're at. That means as of right now, if the 30 minute pulled back, we would say that is an opportunity. And the two hour will very likely will not cross down. It most likely will hold up or see a higher price from this price right now by Wednesday, based on the 30 minute momentum. Now, it's a Fed week. Do you know what a Fed week is to a lot of people? A lot of people who watch stocks all the time, who invest, who trade, who do anything. A lot of people treat it like a lot of traders with earnings and they sit on their hands. A lot of people gambling. It is somewhat of a gamble. If we wanted to make it less of a gamble, we could go over and use some of our tools like the Fed watch. We can look at probabilities and we can see that for 6-17, if you're confused at what I'm looking at, I'm looking at this right here. For 6-17, we have a 98% probability for 375.
[01:26:24] Speaker 2: Sorry, I had a thought pop into my head. I had to think on it for a sec. I had a thought pop into my head.
[01:26:46] Speaker ?: I had to think on it for a sec.
[01:26:54] Speaker 2: That's okay. I was like, for some reason, those numbers were weird to me. Wyckoff. Who's that? Wyckoff. Yeah. That's kind of, yeah.
[01:27:16] Speaker 1: Okay, good. Wyckoff. That's kind of what we drew up earlier. Wyckoff. Thank you, Tom.
[01:27:23] Speaker 2: Thank you. It looked a little bit like Wyckoff, didn't it, the way I drew it?
[01:27:32] Speaker 1: Well, we're really going to look what stocks look like towards that. And do we get a surprise? Well, as of right now, it's saying it's pretty much going to stay 350, 375. Like 90-something percent chance for that.
[01:27:53] Speaker 2: And as we look back, I just had to clarify.
[01:28:07] Speaker 1: I don't know why. My brain just must be non-functional. FedRey kept the fund rate unchanged at 3.5 to 375. Target range for a third consecutive meeting in April. We kept that for May, we'll see here. And then May 31st is all staying the same. So we'll see if we see a change here at all. But as of right now, you have a 96% chance that that is not changing. Now, we'll market celebrate that, you know, whatever. Do we get news with that? Is it a trap? We'll look at signals with it. But as of right now, as of right now, I will tell you what is most probable. Do you guys want me to just tell you straight up like, hey, this looks to be the most probable based on what I see? This could completely be wrong. That's why I always ask, like, do you want to hear my direct opinion based on the signals here? What seems to be the most probable from looking at it for hours and hours over the weekend? I will look at RGTI. Okay. What's shaping up here, as of right now, we're still going to watch for everything we just talked about. But based on volatility, this two-hour drop is very significant. So unless we turn that around like today, like going into tomorrow, this is very likely to continue down and then get a reaction. We're very likely to see this first. We're very likely to see this. So what does that mean for the SPY? That means that we're very likely based on the signals here, as we go more negative for the two-hour on volatility, you're very likely to see something like this, right? Where we're likely not to curl down the two-hour chart, then we can see some kind of reversal that then takes place up a little bit higher. That would be heavily probable. Or the other thing that's heavily probable is you don't do that. You squeeze through, you squeeze through, and you continue this party for a long extended period of time and get the SPY up to $7.96. That's kind of the two doors that are very open with the signals we have. That would mean volatility, instead of doing this, is going to fail right here. It's just going to go down. It's going to try to do it and fail, or it's just not even going to curl up, and you'll see a little 30-minute roll. That seems to be very probable now. That's why the macro video was heavily, heavily tuned towards what? The daily chart being able to curl up for the SPY. So that means on the daily, what would be very probable here, and what would shape up if you're going to see a trap up in these type areas towards that 760 area, is you can do this and then roll. What that would do is get you an actual divergence by that center line. Like a real divergence by that center line, because we didn't get a curl up over here, you would actually see triple divergence on your RSI. So what negates this from happening? Well, if the daily never curls down, but continues to scale up, then we just extended this party for a few pushes, right? If we extend too high, then you start to go for that 800 by sometime in 2026. So that's how much this point right here matters. That's how much this two-hour first move matters. It really matters how positive we go on this two-hour chart.
[01:31:51] Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the truth of it.
[01:31:53] Speaker 1: The bears got slapped very unexpectedly, according to the market, right? Very unexpected. We know that from our daily expected moves. The bears got smacked. We kind of warned the bears they're going to get smacked at some point, at least for something like this, this is happening pretty quickly, which is what we overall said, hey, the bulls need to do. But if we run into this trap area, we can't break through this at all. That's a problem. If you guys need to watch that portion, Sean and Sue, because I see you guys saying yes, yes, yes, a little bit late. Make sure you hit the live button if you catch up to this point. I'll try to try to do a lull for like one minute or so so you guys can catch up. But that seems to be, right? You can't look at volatility on the daily chart right now and tell me that looks great. That looks like we're not going to squeeze to the upside. This looks like a daily pullback. No, it's right by the center line, right?
[01:32:58] Speaker 2: That's a drop.
[01:33:00] Speaker 1: I know what you're saying. You can't say the two hour is going so negative that this is definitely going to be a big bull trap. You can't say it yet. You just can't. And the reason you really can't say it is because the 30 minute is overall saying this ain't a bull trap yet. Right. So if even the 30 minute on volatility is not saying it in the 30 minutes, not even near saying it on the SBY, then I'm kind of silly to sit here and go, oh, the two hours going to cross down. All right. That would be random occurrence. That would be something that is not in your wheelhouse. That would be just a spur of the moment trap. Momentum doesn't give you the hints. If you're playing momentum and momentum doesn't give you the hints, then you don't technically you don't have a trade, right? If you're utilizing momentum and it doesn't give you a hint and a move happens. Oh, well, you know, are my five reasons there. That's what you care at the end of the day. So, yeah, this this area matters a ton. Like what's taking place right now matters a ton because you were able to go high enough that you're you've opened the door to a lot. It wasn't like into drop into divergence right here. Divergence in the scary area, right? No, it's it's like, hey, this is a great move to the upside. If we can continue that greatness for just a bit of time, even into Wednesday, and then we can just pull back and be off to the races. Or if this was unexpected here, then we could just get a 30. This two hour doesn't have to stop, right? Even on Wednesday. If you get good reaction from the Fed, you can squeeze to second standard deviation for the weekly by Thursday. IWM, IWM looks great, like IWM even more so. You're going, hmm, this is interesting because this this is this already worked out these divergences over here. So this is probably a new move. IWM itself is saying the same thing as volatility. It's saying, oh, we can do something like this. Right. The daily, the daily, we can make triple divergence with the daily. We'll look for a divergence point up here. Right. Because we're at that annual expected move. But if I squeeze through, if I squeeze through those divergences, if I squeeze through those divergences, then I have to assume that daily pullbacks will be bought by buyer demand. And we'll continue this party for a bit of time. Right. If the daily goes like this and then pulls back, what do you think that is? It's an opportunity. That's exactly how we talked about the beginning of the year. Exactly how we talked about the beginning of the year. Well, when everyone was saying the crash is here, the crash is here, we were going the weekly is positive. It has no divergence, no lower high. So if this crosses up, we're way more likely to go make a new all time high. Guess what? We curl up. And what happens? Well, we make a new all time high. That's everything we were saying down at these charts. Now, that was pretty sporadic, pretty crazy. But back then, we remember that the, I think it was, was it the Q's? Was it IWM was our friend then? Yeah, we weren't, for some, I can't remember back in the past. I'll have to go look at old videos or something. We weren't really looking at this from a serious bearish lens. We did think that a roll right here would be very risky. I do remember that. But overall, it's like the weekly scale. If you're positive and you continue the positivity, then you're going to continue the positivity. If you're positive, you get a positive confirmation. The most probable thing is to see more positivity. The market is bullish, like, all the time. I'd rather see a pullback going into the event. I would rather see the 30-minute kind of waste time, waste time, waste time. And then I would like to see that pull down in some fashion. And then I would like to see one more upward move. The question is, if we get that pullback now going into Wednesday, do we get that to climb for the rest of the day, set some kind of end-of-the-day trap, and then we curl back to the upside on Wednesday, then we go into the event like this, then you see a confirmation down, no violation, no random curl up over here, nothing, just divergence. Okay, then. Your two-hour, where's that at at that point? Right? Is that here, or is it here? Because if it's right there, you're right by the center line. So we'll really, we'll be here Wednesday, by the way. So we'll be live Wednesday morning. I might, actually, since Wednesday is a pretty important day, I'm going to, I'm going to see no guarantees, and honestly, it probably won't happen. But just have those notifications on. Make sure you're subscribed, okay? Because if I can hop on Wednesday afternoon, that's the benefit to opening up live video. I'm going to try to do this, especially when we have the membership going after August. For members, I really want to have, if I can hop on for events like Fed Days and things like that, I really want to hop on.
[01:38:26] Speaker 2: So that's, that's my overall sentiment there. Let me check on something real quick, real quick, guys. Like, I'm going to try to do one minute, because we only got, like, five minutes left. Just give me one minute.
[01:38:45] Speaker ?: Okay. Okay.
[01:38:56] Speaker 2: Sorry, I might have to call my niece in just a little bit. Grading live and things like that.
[01:39:18] Speaker 1: Like, I take trades while I'm live. I usually discuss a trade if I'm going to take it. A lot of last week, I spent a lot of time on Amazon, but that one started to fail. We talked a lot about failures during that, because the 15-minute, you guys remember, we were using, I think, the 15-minute for a, hey, get out. If these 30-minute divergences right here are going to fail, there were 30-minute divergences here. If they're going to fail, then the 15-minute will rotate. Okay, rotates, I'm out. So I don't lose big percentage. So we did discuss that. I try to more so discuss why I'm doing certain things. But the reason I won't necessarily say, like, actively be like, this is the trade. Here's how I'm taking it. And try to map it out exactly to a T is because I don't think that everyone thinks the same about money. And I don't think that I know that everyone thinks differently about money. The way that I display this is the $100 on the ground thing. There's a million different things you could do if you picked up $100 off the ground. Some people might just go spend it. Some people might put it in savings. Some people might give it to their kids. Some people might take their wife out. That's usually what I would do. Some people put it in the stock market. Some people invest it. There's a million different decisions. So I think it's better for me to explain how I do things, but not say for you to do those things. Because if by saying you should do those things, that's me assuming that you see charts, you see money, your emotions, your reactions to things are exactly like mine. And I don't think that's the case one-to-one almost at all. So I think it's better for me to show you these type of things so that you can kind of understand them for yourself so that you can make any strategy work based on how you see money with this information.
[01:41:07] Speaker 2: Does that make sense?
[01:41:12] Speaker 1: So if you're looking for someone to follow just to like, for them to tell you, hey, this is what I'm doing. You should do it. Go ahead. Then I would be charging way more than $7 a month for my Patreon. It would probably be hundreds of dollars per month for my Patreon. I would not do that. I am not in any way a financial advisor. I have traded for multiple people in the past. You know, people have invested in me. But once I started to do, once YouTube started to become a little bit bigger, I can negate a lot of risk in that type of fashion by just, you know, doing YouTube. I can say, hey, I met the goals.
[01:41:54] Speaker 2: All right, done. Right. I respect people's money a lot.
[01:42:06] Speaker 1: I really do. Because I probably respect other people's money more than mine, right? I used way less risky things when I was doing that.
[01:42:20] Speaker 2: Oh, that's a 15. I was like, why does this look weird? We've got four minutes left if you guys have any more questions like that. It's not me.
[01:42:40] Speaker 1: No. YouTube's nice. It's just, I like YouTube mainly because it just gets me fired up a little bit more about stocks. The payout's not dramatic. I will say that. I think I could literally tell you.
[01:42:56] Speaker 2: Let's look at... I think it's what?
[01:43:04] Speaker 1: I'll get 400 bucks, I think, from YouTube this month. Which is great. That's great. That pays my car bill. It's great. You know? I have the time to do it. Well, barely. You know, the live video kind of makes it more of a thing. But, yeah. It's, uh...
[01:43:28] Speaker 2: I knew I messed something up.
[01:43:38] Speaker 1: But, yeah. That's overall, like, why I like it. But I like to stick to that. I like to stick to, hey, and if you don't like that, that's perfectly fine. You're more than welcome to go somewhere else. But you're also welcome to stay and try to learn from this channel. I think it's great. If you want to kind of figure out how you see money, that's probably where you will be more successful. Because all that person has to do is not go live the next day and you're, like, in no man's land if you have no skills. Or if you don't understand weekly ranges.
[01:44:12] Speaker 2: Okay. A couple of minutes, guys. Oh, yeah. SoFi. SoFi. Let's look at SoFi. Oh, that's not bad. Good. I actually outperform my averages when trading other people's money.
[01:44:28] Speaker 1: I think it's because I'm less risky with it. I think it's because I'm more like I will only take the really good opportunities with five reasons. Let's go like this. SoFi. I did say I would look at SoFi. Let's go look at SoFi. SoFi. Similar scenarios taking place, right? You have argument for triple bottom. Immediately, you have argument for triple bottom. And you kind of see that all these lows are pretty darn similar. So you have the opportunity for triple bottom. A little bit tricky with this one right here. A little bit tricky on the 30-minute. But if you're able to take it, you know, the two-hour bounce. If you looked across the board and you see a lot of two-hour bounce. Now, we discussed this. That you could still be in this type of formation. Where you can see that upside move. And you want to break out. You would really like to break out. See a retest. You would like to. Oh. Then we break through. Get a retest. Off to the races. If you kind of reject from there, though. There's always the risk of going down to these type of levels. And getting tight in here. But looking at the two-hour. You would just go. I need that to go positive. If that can go positive. Then I'm looking for what? Positive move. Nice squeeze. Yeah, maybe I missed it because that 30-minute was a little wonky. Okay, if I missed it. Two-hour pullback, right? Boom. Boom. There's the opportunity. Right? That's how I would personally. Me. That's how I would look at it. The daily scale, though. Let's turn it up. Maybe someone who likes to trade off of daily scale is going. This is a daily high or low. I'm investing. Right? An investor may see this and go. Hey, this is a great time. Because the weekly is going to curl to the upside. I know it's negative. But hey. This is a great discount. What kind of discount is this? Oh, this is a discount of... And thank you so much for subscribing, Chuck. This is a discount of 47%. Oh, I kind of like that. And then you could say, okay, the weekly goes up like this. Oh, I see daily divergence over here. And then you could say, okay, I'm out. Right? And that can still be a pretty decent percentage, too. Right? Let's say monthly expected moves up here. 27% maybe over a couple of months. A few months. A few months. So you'd really be considering the fact that the daily is confirming here. And you would say, ah, price action is getting a little bit tight. Can it get tighter? Yeah. But I'm getting a confirmation now. Do I take three-month options or something like that? Two-month options at least? You know, you can consider all those things with this. The, uh, I believe the weekly expected move is rather large for SoFi. Ah, not really. Okay, so this will change things, right? Now, I haven't updated the other charts, guys. My apologies. I will get those updated for tomorrow. But I will show you this level right here. 1785. 1785 is going to be a critical level. Right? So, if I run in to 1785, maybe even today, maybe tomorrow, and then I reject in this two hours by the center line, well, I would have to say the two-hour crossing down by the center line says that that daily signal can be completely violated. That is a contradiction to the positivity that you want to see. So, if I see a two-hour turn down here, even with the daily curled up, I might say, hey, I'm going to wait for that to make a two-hour higher low. Hey, I'm going to wait for a two-hour to make a clear divergence or something like that. So, this is your weekly expected move.
[01:48:01] Speaker 2: 1785.
[01:48:07] Speaker 1: So, it just depends on how you get there. Do you spike to there and sell off? Or do you kind of drive, run, get there slowly to where this can kind of leak, leak, leak, and go positive to where you're like, all right, high or low? All right, squeeze through, you know? Or am I just going to take it based off of the daily confirmation? There's a million different ways to do it. It's just, what's your next reaction? If I take it based on the daily and I say, I'm buying it now, well, if the two-hour rotates like this, I see a confirmation down, then I don't want to hold on to that because you're at risk of doing this. So, I want to make sure to negate that loss. So, that's one way to look at it. There's a few ways to look at this. The 30-minute chart for now is very positive. So, you would expect to hit that 1785. You would. You'd expect to hit it. You go up, you pull down, you go up again, and then you watch out up in these areas. Or you just climb there now. We'll see. But you are very likely to hit 1785 for SoFi this week. Is that going to happen right now? 30 minutes overbought? We'll see. If it can keep squeezing. But if you get a 30-minute pullback now that it successfully makes the higher low, then you would just say, okay, 1785 is the target.
[01:49:28] Speaker 2: Nice.
[01:49:35] Speaker 1: I kind of want this. You want, bulls want it too. Dip down. And then the next move is what's important. You know, do we see this? And then we get to that event. And then it squeezes through. Do we see this? And then it gets to that event and falls off. And what's the two-hour look like at that point? That's all we have to do this week. And we'll do it all. We'll do it for these sessions, right? We'll do it throughout these sessions here. So today, tomorrow, and the next day,
[01:50:06] Speaker 2: we will do all of it here. Yeah, Ben. And these are all,
[01:50:15] Speaker 1: you know, speculative. So just keep in mind, audio is audio fine, guys. Just keep in mind that it doesn't have to be exactly like this. We can get lower highs and things like that. I just like divergences plays.
[01:50:34] Speaker 2: Go look at Tesla real quick. They're not, I haven't gotten a text yet.
[01:50:39] Speaker 1: 400. Where's the weekly for Tesla? Is that out of the question for a 30-minute pullback or is that too deep? 377 would be way too deep for a 30-minute pullback, but so I think you would just consider the five-day here. Look at 398. Yeah, so 400. Then you just curl to the upside. If we start to go negative, if you start to break below this, that's where it starts to go, oh, okay, we're going to go do this. Remember that Tesla does not have the divergence on the MACD. So if you do see that 30-minute lower high scenario, we'll look over here for like a two-hour random higher low or a two-hour divergence. I would love a divergence there. You go down to, what's the low? 377.83 for the lower expected move. You go down to that type of area, 375.377. Bam. You do that. That would be a great hint of where Tesla wants to go next. All right, guys, I'm going to hop off now, but I appreciate you guys showing up to the live show. Hopefully, I'll have a little bit more time. I think I will tomorrow, but I thank you guys for joining me today. I think we got to a lot of good topics. The course, if anything confused you, if you just want things cut and dry, if you think you got to hang on it, but you want a full grasp of it, take that course that's in the description. It will tell you a lot of my thinking behind a lot of the things that I say, a lot of the thinking and knowledge that needs to be understood behind the ranges, behind your MACD, behind your RSI to actually understand why you can trust these things. Okay, so there's a lot of good info in there. There's a strategy for high volatility. If you just wanted to know, you know, one of my strategies, it does correlate to some of these strategies that we talk about almost in every single video. So check that out. It's down in the description. It is currently for the summer sale, 80% off if you want to snag it. But thank you guys for joining today. Patreon members, be looking out for the weekly update. That link's down there as well. I don't want to shout out too many of those things though and annoy you guys. I think you guys need to focus on just having a great day. Have a great day. Even if something goes wrong, life is still good, right? It's okay and things will happen and we can learn from those mistakes and that's perfectly fine. So thank you guys so much for watching today and have a great one. All right? Peace out, guys.
[01:53:00] Speaker 2: Yeah, see you tomorrow, Fritz.
[01:53:02] Speaker 1: See you tomorrow, Grandpa, Chris. Make me giddy. Yeah, we'll see you tomorrow, buddy. See you, Ben. Thanks for commenting in here, all right? And not Navin was here. Good luck to all. Patience is key. I like it. I like it. All right, God bless you guys. I'm hopping off. Peace out.