SPY BOUNCE MONDAY OR TUESDAY... but do we see continued selling?

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: in yesterday's update video we went over the macro scale we went over the fact that there were those daily divergences and the cues were at that risky spot being at the annual expected move with iwm tapping very close to it with a more significant divergence as well if any of this seems like a lot to just throw at you right in the first like 20 seconds of the video guys go view that video from yesterday it will be good because a lot of the stuff we talked about a week ago ended up starting to come to fruition this week so very very nice we're going to give you continue to give you those weekly updates with some macro side every single saturday i will make sure to put a link up at the end of this video that you guys can click on so if you want to watch the whole thing you can watch it before or after i just think it's important to get that macro side on so that you understand this weekly chart isn't necessarily leaning towards a massive stock market crash just yet but potentially just a correction that looks a little bit volatile and if you remember just a week ago we were talking about the we're gonna have a fake crash scenario and that door has been open but is it going to fully be open and that's what we're going to go over in this video as we get you guys those updated weekly expected moves and daily expected moves and we start to consider hey this two hours starting to go negative here are we completely wiping out any form of getting to a new high well we're going to consider some things with these two hour and 30 minute charts and get into those shorter time frames so that we can get a good outlook on what's very probable for the week ahead and let's get into it first we need to talk about volatility with the two hour creating the uh-oh lower low wait a second macd higher low really close to the center line glad we pointed this out on thursday but we were watching for what last weekend we talked about a potential volatility the vix here making some kind of two hour divergence now this did make a positive move so i don't know if you call it divergence but we cleared it up on thursday by saying if it curls up by that if it curls up right now is it closer to the center line and could that be a reaction that can go positive and end up curling up the daily chart and man were we good to point that out because now volatility is up by what you can't really see it over there but this says 39.7 if you kind of look up here for a moment you'll see 39 plus 39.7 so the percentages kind of go like this if volatility is up by 10 then you are likely to see the market be dropping right but the next two trading sessions you would have an 85 probability to see some kind of bounce that could be a small bounce it could be a recovery we'll have to see what takes place and utilize our daily and weekly expected moves to really see if a full recovery is possible here and look at the negative trends but considering that we were up by 39.7 percent for volatility that actually means we have a 95 probability to see an update for the spy in the next two trading sessions so the main thing about volatility here and we'll probably go over this again at the end is this is potential to turn up the weekly chart if you want to look at that macro video and the two hours in a dramatically positive trend as of right now tagging that 21 51 directly by the end of the day just another anecdotal level that i've been playing with for the last year or so let's go to the spy and really talk about this and first get you guys those weekly and daily moves we notice the monthly move is down here if you don't have that yet you can get the monthly moves in yellow we give them out for free at the end of every single month or the beginning of a new month we give out weekly expected moves every single weekend every single sunday i try to give out these weekly expected moves so i would love for you to subscribe and see how this information is super helpful to you because this is calculated with the options data the funny thing for me is we have spread out for the week ahead we have spread out with a little bit of more implied involved volatility which makes sense because volatility goes up implied volatility goes up as well but something that didn't increase much is your daily expected move and this is where we will consider potentially that update but i do notice that a lot of the um a lot of the futures and stuff like that did end up going a little bit lower down to potentially the weekly expected move for the future so we will consider that 751 47 to the upside for your weekly move 723 63 to the downside so the only thing here that could really save the bulls is some kind of massive random squeeze and i do not see any signal that suggests that a squeeze is being hinted here so as of right now if i see nothing that really tells me and i'll show you that on the 30 minute chart if i see nothing that tells me that this is going to turn around with any kind of probability then that would be considered low probability at this point we can curl up the two hour chart and maybe get to that weekly expected move but that would be a heavy resistance level where we would likely go down and actually see the physical sby during regular trading hours tag the weekly expected move so if the two hour curls up i still really want to consider where my weekly move is consider that that would be a potential lower high for the two hour chart and uh when looking at the weekly expected move continuation if you're just going to keep dropping dropping dropping for that two hour move well we could end up down towards 7 23 63 let's consider that 95 probability for an update real quick here though and see how we could get down to that lower weekly expected move or at least the monthly one well we notice here that it would be pretty simple the most simple way that this market can do something here uh to really set up a potential three 30 minute swing to get some kind of downside is we're very far away from the five day we notice that the 30 minute is pretty darn deep here you notice that we're at levels where you are very likely to do what create potential divergences create divergences create divergences create divergences down at these type of levels so if we're saying a two hour is going to curl up we do not see a higher low to give you that hint we do not see some kind of divergence to give you that hint just yet but you notice how good that would look by the monthly expected move this would be fantastic and that's why i want you to join us for the live show monday tuesday wednesday all summer long all the way through the end of august we will be doing completely free live videos on monday tuesday wednesday from the open and we're going to stay live for two to three hours so i hope you join especially if you are new and you have any kind of question i'd love to answer your questions this means that this macd if we do see some kind of dry kind of update considering we have a weird low amount of implied volatility even if we start out down first if we get some kind of update we would look for a failure of the 30 minute potentially closer to the center line that is how we can potentially get down to the monthly or even the weekly expected move for the week ahead so considering the fact that we have no hints that the spy could turn around here it's kind of important to understand that the 30 minute is very likely to continue where would it continue well most likely the five day would need to catch up in some fashion and then we would see some kind of roll to head to the downside that seems to be the most probable based on the information we have here for the spy but let's keep going let's see how the qc let's see how we see things with the qs let's see how the iwm proves itself right now and see what we can derive from that with our expected moves and then we'll go over volatility on those shorter time frames as of right now the two hour is dropping and going negative so you are at risk of breaking the low if we are going to go through that weekly pullback that we talked about that weekly correction that we talked about well then we still have the opportunity to get some kind of two hour reaction to set up the left head and right shoulder so we will be watching for that very carefully the big thing here compared to just at the beginning of the week we are paying attention to if this could come down to these type of levels and curl back up into positive territory we have wiped out that area so we have to consider that this got a big reaction to the downside volatility confirmed a very very sell-off type signal and therefore we are very likely to see a lower high and go down to weekly the lower weekly the lower monthly expected move as of right now okay is very very important to watch here we see that the cues did go negative in some fashion now the cues still positive right if it curled up right away we could go to the upside but that is outside of your monthly expected move or i'm sorry your weekly expected move and you're so close to tapping it that you'd like to see that in the regular trading hours so if this curls up your weekly expected move is not saying a full recovery right this second is high probability it can happen we'll monitor this that's why we're doing the live show because we saw some volatility coming and i wanted to be live uh with you guys for this summer uh the two-hour chart being curled down here is perfectly fine we still would like to potentially see a lower high from volatility to suggest more downside is coming but does the 30 minutes suggest some kind of turnaround is coming considering our weekly expected move is 7 29 34 we'd maybe look for lower high around there 6 80 88 though can we get there the 30 minute chart is well negative here just like the spy this is well negative this means that maybe buying some kind of short at the end of the day would be more of a bet on some kind of black swan it would be very very low probability still it can work this is the recipe for it but the more likely thing here is you get kind of a dry day you head up to 7 12 68 then you get up there even if we end up down here first we kind of dry run all the way up to these levels and then we would rotate down as that five day comes across as we test it we could then rotate down to a monthly or even weekly expected move at that point when we do start to see divergences or higher lows for the 30 minute that is more when we would consider that the two hour can make some kind of move to the upside and we will take into consideration once those things form where the two hour macd is at so as of right now the most probable thing here is continuation for the 30 minute until we see some signs some some signals that this wants to some hints that give us the probability the two hour can turn around uh this is very very likely to continue for the queues make sure to go over that macro video because the daily and weekly chart very important here for the queues iwm the most important for those macro signals we almost got to that move we see the fake out that did happen we saw that boom to the downside and we cut out this low that should be like hey i need to mitigate risk immediately kind of deal but we were able to go negative in some fashion is this level negative enough to create divergences you would have to say yes at this point that means until i see a higher low until i see some kind of divergence i can't really talk about the two hour chart turning around so as of right now a dry run up to a daily expected move a 284 08 where we are able to reject would be very probable for monday maybe that drags out into tuesday we'll have to see but overall the next opportunity for a swing to the downside if we continue would be some kind of curl up that gets you up by that center line and then curls down into negative territory continuation being the most probable here for the 30 minute chart we noticed that the two hour actually was able to set up some divergence here you would potentially say some kind of double top you could potentially say but it was kind of wonky here for the macd but you do see that you see that downward direction you see that downward direction that means you had weakness and momentum for the daily chart to cross and i will show this once again because iwm actually had the more significant triple divergence that became significant even more so in the near price action very very important as we look at the two hour chart if that would curl up right now you have the opportunity to potentially go test the high go make a new one but because of the dramatic selling we have no hints from the 30 minute chart meaning that that would be low probability instead you are more likely to set up some kind of reversal signal that then gives you some kind of two hour lower high and if you really want to consider it this is the critical level to take out to really see even more downside here more of a weekly pullback would be if we do something like this we see the 270 47 level taken out as that has proven to be a very very in the gap in there as well very important level over time so i think the 30 minute is what we will mainly focus on during those live shows at the beginning of the week we will see if we get any kind of signal for a two hour bounce as iwm the queues and the spy are all very close to their monthly expected move let's go over volatility to really finish this up because volatility on the two hour chart does not look like it wants to stop so selling selling selling is on the table do not expect some kind of bounce just because of a percentage but instead maybe expect some kind of bounce because we're at critical levels and the volatility index might need to back off at some point we have to consider liquidity and things like that as well but we do know this even if this wants to pop off if the two hour chart pulls back here it's still in a positive trend if we pull back right away still in a positive trend so if the two hour chart is able to pull back here this does not mean that the the bottom is in we would have to consider future signals for that we would need the market to prove that that is a bottom with a lower high with a divergence um that would be in the opposite direction for volatility even the 30 minute here you can see that that is skying up there it is really skying up there getting to that 21 51 above 20 at this point but that would say if this curls down there's a ton of room to the center line to just curl up one more time so again we do not see anything from volatility that suggests that even in the short term that the selling will completely stop we know that we have a 95 probability to see an update in the next two trading sessions but it looks like that update is very likely to be just some kind of small bounce to maybe grab liquidity at this point for more selling to come so that the spy can get down to its monthly expected move so that the queues can potentially get down to the monthly expected move so the most probable thing for this week is maybe we continue the selling but at some point we will see some kind of bounce that then confirms back to the downside which will tell you that more selling is on the table thank you guys so much for watching this video i really do appreciate it i know i had to get through it just a tad bit quickly but i do thank you for watching these videos and i look forward to seeing you tomorrow at the live show thank you and have a great rest of your day peace out