😲STOCK MARKET CRASH SIGNALS ARE HERE!... but they leave room for bear traps...

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: oh we actually saw the most probable thing to happen right the most probable thing to happen here did take place but man did it happen quicker than expected man did it happen without setting any kind of 30 minute weakness and that's unfortunate because that means you experienced a one percent moment a daily actual crash did happen now was it black thursday was it a black monday was it a black tuesday like people are suggesting no it was not you were not down by say 10 or 20 like a lot of those days right a lot of those averaged out to about a 13 down day we did not see that but you did on the daily scale experience a crash moment it's unfortunate that we weren't able to squeeze through this level that way people could be kind of tricked and trapped to some kind of upside move but when we fall short uh-oh the most probable thing was to roll down to the weekly expected move just faster than expected in my opinion but this is where we have to get into some things because for today's video we need to see what does this actually mean we need to look at the macro side of things look at the daily scale look at the weekly scale maybe go look at things like the dollar because we need to see is this a recipe for that 50 crash that all these people have been shouting out for three four even five years we need to see if those things are going to take place and we're going to look for those signals right now first thing is on the macro scale were we aware that we had the trap behavior and that we even had the trap behavior in a stance from the dollar that suggested that there could be a major crash on the horizon and we need to watch out for those reversal signals on the daily and weekly scale for the spy well yes we did we noticed way back here if we go back in time that we were talking about how the dollar was bottoming and we mentioned how normally the dollar bottoms before the market tops and then it starts to rise and rise to the upside which is trap like behavior but when it pulls back into positive territory usually when you see that next confirmation you start to really see a top for the market that being said we don't necessarily see the best segment we're going to go over those in a second but do we have the recipe for a major major crash like people are suggesting at least from the dollar's perspective and we would have to say yes you do have the recipe here for the dollar to start to squeeze to the upside people fly into cash and get out of stocks that being said we're always aware that sometimes the market does some funky things and if the market's able to turn up in any way and we see the dollar rise with that we just know a bigger trap is being set we just know that more trap behavior is going on here and we need to pay attention to signals actual signals from the spy that tell us that there can be a major crash in line with this now on the daily scale we say hey going into next week you know going into the next month or so is this very risky and you would have to say yes right you see that even on thursday we were like hey yeah this this is kind of funky that we're not seeing the dollar pop off but on friday you really saw that follow through so on the dry day kind of that sideways day on friday you actually saw the dollar break through so this does give more credibility to another drop in some way this does give credibility to people flying into cash on friday and out of stocks we'll see what the market has in store for us if we need to react to anything but all we know that was that this is in a positive trend with no reversal signals so it's very likely to pile up and be able to curl up and then test the high and go make a new one so the dollar is still looking like here not a full confirmation on the macd but it is looking like here that it does want to extend in some fashion and if it is going to extend we would assume at this point with the dramatic drop that that means that we can hit lower levels in the spy and the qqqs and whatever you want to say because that means people could fly into cash for a moment and then actually get out of assets we'll watch for divergences and things like that to see if there's any tricks in here but for now that's what the chart is overall suggesting then we go over to the weekly scale for the vix now i want you to remember a key thing about the weekly scale for the vix yes it is in positive territory yes it is skyrocketing to the upside but remember that we were well negative and we have not gone to the major trap level of 1212 and you notice that every time we don't go to 12 12 right when we do big volatility when we don't little volatility i mean it's still pretty large right these are still dramatic uh kind of moves right in some fashion right we just experienced this one but you notice when we actually get to that 12 12 level first we actually see the big booms in volatility right this one here led into a big boom in volatility but this time we're only coming down into this level so we have to consider that positioning of the macd still and just be aware that this is turned up in positive territory crash moment is on the table major crash moment is on the table but we always talk about both sides we always talk about what it looked like before and what our analysis was before was uh oh we're pretty negative here so even if we do see a big pop like this we should be aware if that rotates down with a lower high we need to be aware of that because the major trap level is 12 12 and we're actually heading into the end of the year which usually produces the best months so this will be an interesting time it's like are we going to crash during two of the best months of the year that'll be very interesting on the seasonality side of things because yes i'm saying that we should be aware of at least some little piece of you should be aware if the weekly scale turns down but we're seeing no inclination of that as of right now you are seeing the daily scale just go more and more positive this means that even if the daily bounce we can go through a daily pullback this means continuation is highly highly likely even on the macro scale for the vic so there's gonna have to be some wild stuff i mean usually how this stuff is saved at the end of the day is some kind of crazy v-shape moment the last time that we live we're able to catch one of those crazy v-shape moments the chat was all yelling at me and stuff like this and i go i see trap behavior i think we're going to v-shape and then at the end of the day we v-shaped by like three percent in 30 minutes you know that being said we'll see if we can catch it this time around if it even takes place but we'll watch the dollar for that the big deal here is we're going to take the vix for what the vix is saying the vix is in a positive trend the vix is far away from the center line on that macd down here the vix on the rsi isn't really showing any divergences so this means we should be aware that we don't have the setup for that weekly chart to roll down yet we would need to see a crushing of the vix right to do something like this or some kind of probably scale up even higher and then make some kind of divergence which would be a great thing this would be a great thing for this is what i said in the last video was i would love for volatility to remain above 20 for at least a little extended period of time because the trades are fantastic if you are good at catching traps and you're good at utilizing weekly expected moves speaking of weekly expected moves if you go click the link down in the description to join patreon you can get 50 off the video in the shop just by using that code that you get that the pin message in the feed you can literally get the ability to make your own weekly daily monthly expected moves i put a video out teaching you exactly how to do it exactly how to set up a spreadsheet doing it and i'd love for you to get that information especially for stocks that i'm not personally covering over on patreon ones that we don't cover if you want to wake we make weekly expected moves for those you can go over to patreon right now the link is in the description and if you join you can get that video for half price just wanted to shout that out there but let's go over to the spy very simply here one we are still within the monthly expected news but we know that this was a very one percent moment and we closed outside of the weekly so is it possible that we could close outside of the monthly this month well we experienced something that we assume was not expected right especially considering those daily expected moves it looks like an unexpected one percent moment so we should say hey would we be surprised if we close the month outside of the monthly expected move no now the other thing that we need to understand here is but if we create reversal signals at the weekly expected move we need to consider that this could have been priced in anyway we need to consider that if we set up reversal signals here and those reversal signals set up and confirm and then we don't see any kind of weird rolling we just see that thing trying to go into a positive trend we should be aware that a counter move can still come from the weekly expected move even though vix is saying continuation seems very probable i just wanted to put that out there for the daily scale but you are dramatically negative now you notice when we were talking about hey you could possibly go up here we could do this we could try to do this anytime the daily scale turns up into positive territory we have to be aware that that can go positive and that can test the high and go make a new one we didn't do that we rejected multiple times off to the point where now you are so negative that if this curls up yeah i might not want to be bearish for the moment but i need to consider i need to consider the fact that this is deep in negative territory and we may even continue even with the daily move to the upside if we break down to this monthly expected move we set up reversal signals and we bounce aren't we kind of looking like we want to do something funky over here right i think that is the real crash setup and we'll have to see if those confirmations take place but i just wanted to mention that for the daily scale you are negative you don't have reversal signals i think a v shape is really the way that this market can come back and those are very difficult to see coming but we can analyze the dollar and see if they give us some hints in the future but i want you to utilize that monthly expected move now we notice here for the spy that we're still very far from that centerline so can we crash well do we have signals for a crash well we have the dollar that overall bottomed before the market topped we saw the dollar pull back on the weekly scale then confirmed to the upside that is all a recipe for hey the crash can take place if i see any crash signals we don't have the best crash signals if we zoom out to this you can kind of see how these added up to a triple divergence and you see just how significant those divergences got on the rsi we don't see the same thing here we see a flat very flat divergence on the macd and a single slightly significant divergence on the rsi so is there are there signals here that suggest we can go through an absolutely bad moment yes but what we want to consider is we still have room to the center line so if we have room to the center line and at any point i see a set up a reversal signal in here any point i see a daily reversal signal over here you know especially by that 695 694 level right in these bulk of buyers from the earlier stages in the year then i want to be aware that this can easily just curl up into positive territory it's a very simple rule if i'm bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish we're heading down but the weekly scale turns up into positive territory i have to flip the script so do you have signals that suggest you can see a big crash here yes but do you also see anything that says you should still be paying attention that the weekly scale has room to turn to the upside again and this could just be a retracement this could just be a bigger pullback in the grand scheme of things yes so you want to follow the shorter time frames very very carefully so make sure you are subscribed so that you can join us tomorrow where we're going to get into the shorter time frames we're going to get you updated weekly and daily expected moves but overall that's how i'm seeing the spy let's go check on the cues now just by looking at the cues you can see we're already at that monthly expected move now remember that thing i always like to say hey when the cues get to that that monthly or weekly expected move and the spy is not quite there just yet we kind of expect that the cues are going to get some kind of bounce right maybe some kind of bounce and then the the spy will be able to oh catch up to that and the cues will break through that move so just be aware that a lot of the time when one indice gets to a monthly expected move or weekly expected move many many many many big portions of the time you will see the other one play catch up so the cues easily could end outside of the monthly expected move and we broke through a critical level here we are extremely negative and negative territory we are more negative than the last time so if we really want to suggest this market can turn around for anyone that's still really leaning towards the bull side you would very much so need to see some kind of divergence in this area you would very much so need to see a v shape leading into some kind of higher low to really suggest that this market can turn all the way up and go up up up and away into the end of the year i'm leaving it on the table in some kind of percentage just because we haven't seen the spy get to that annual expected move and i think that's very interesting but the daily scale here is definitely negative and leans towards continuation just like the spy just like the vix and just like the dollar is even suggesting everything is suggesting continuation but we're still going to do our job because as we look at the weekly scale we see that there is some room to the center line so if if the market if the queues specifically are able to come down into these levels and set up a reversal signal kind of before the end of november then we need to be watching out because we do see some pretty bad signals here for the queues compared to the spy but as this does have room if that curls up at any point i need to flip the script i think the queues look way more risky than the spy at this point with these weekly signals we have two highs coming in we see the attachment there and we see a dramatic way more significant divergence here this is probably why people are suggesting or this actually gives credibility to people suggesting that the ai bubble could be slightly bursting here in some way right i think this is a big argument for that from the tech sector as a whole is we have that weakness that is obviously showing in the semiconductors now they failed to curl up those reversal signals they completely failed it at this point and we see significant much more significant than the spy for the queues here much more significant divergences that suggest that we actually can break this low but i just want to suggest we pay attention to this specific area right in here this weirdly enough where that red line is that's not a red line that's marked off we're going to update those daily expected news make sure to join us tomorrow but 627 that's 627 50 pretty much in these highs we want to be very clear that if we set up reversal signals in this area before this is able to really go negative remember we went negative over here curled to the upside we went positive within two weeks and we're up up up and away so what if we do the same thing right over here so that's all i'm leaving on the table i'm leaving that on the table because the spy has not reached that 800 level but as of right now we should be looking for setups for continuation to the downside this is where things get dramatically more interesting to me okay to me this gets very interesting when it comes to iwm iwm here did show all those divergences it even curled up one more time by the center line and set another divergence point that curled down and we crossed to the downside breaking a low never even making a right shoulder that could have been so much weakness and momentum that you just directly turn down that weekly chart and it screamed to the downside so what we want to look at for iwm that's interesting here is do we really see the best reversal signal we have all these flat divergences on the rsi yes we have just the the blip divergence you can barely see that green bar we just have a tiny little blip that's saying yeah there's a little divergence here so what we're noticing is iwm is the one that is right by the center line so iwm is one that i want to keep a careful eye on because if the weekly chart for iwm is able to curl up here technically it does say hey we're going to test this big block in here and if we're able to successfully get through there without going into some weakness well we have the opportunity to make a new high because we are in positive territory test the high and go make a new one would still be on the table if the weekly chart crossed up now i don't want you to get it twisted the daily chart is looking like it's curling down into negative territory but this is a few steps ahead of the spy and the qqqs you notice that the iwm already rotated completely down into negative territory you notice it went very deep into negative territory it didn't make the best reversal signals in here there is no divergence on the rsi at that stage but what if it creates it right now right we're saying on the spy and the q's yes they have the recipe for some kind of vomit of the market here we have already started that vomit but if they make a daily divergence or a daily higher low then we need to consider that the script can be flipped into the end of the year iwm would have to have the same argument but it is a few steps ahead it has gone through a daily bounce that daily bounce has failed if that daily bounce fails and creates a double bottom or divergence down here then i need to consider flipping the script on iwm and i need to consider that if this crosses to the downside or even rejects right now we have some probabilities pointing towards the weekly chart can curl up into positive territory and i think that is something that we really need to have on our radar that is something that i personally have on my radar iwm is one that i am going to watch very closely and you will most likely hear some videos about patreon members over the next week or two because if this thing sets up good reversal signals on the shorter time frames down in this area that suggests that daily can curl up who's to say we don't run into a golden setup and we catch a major squeeze so i'm not saying this has to take place as of right now we know that everything is leaning towards what continuation but what i'm talking about here is if that continuation doesn't lead to a very dramatic low wiping out divergence it can lead into a divergence or even double bottom right now it can lead into a divergence that suggests hey a trap has formed everyone's getting bearish and iwm is actually about to go bullish so the main takeaway here is is this bad yes it is you do have reversal signals pretty much across the board but those reversal signals aren't the strongest except for the cues i would suggest that the cues have very strong reversal signals but what we need to consider here is if these signals are not the absolute best and we still have strong buyers down towards that 694 695 level then if the market wanted to set up a reversal signal anywhere in this area before the weekly chart is able to go negative and then that weekly chart curls up we actually should be paying attention to upside maybe into the end of the year or at least maybe if this takes all the way into 2027 we just want to be aware of those things but for the time being we understand that the market is overall in the negative area we overall understand that this is definitely in favor of the bears and so we should be looking for continuation type plays and we will talk about some of those type of setups those type of scenarios in tomorrow's video when we get you updated weekly and daily expected moves i thank you so much for watching this video i thank you for being a part of this community for liking the videos and all that good stuff you guys are amazing and i really do appreciate you watching these videos and i just hope that this in some way on the macro scale was able to give us a clear indication of hey how do we pay attention it can this be really bad yes but can we also still do our job and know that the market does tricks and traps and if we see those tricks and traps can we not have a bias and make sure to just understand that if we see those things we may need to flip the script that's the overall sentiment that i like to have when looking at the market pretty much at all times and then i just let the confirmations do it with three to five reasons to take a trade and always having a plan for if that trade goes wrong and that is trading like water so thank you guys so much for joining today have a great rest of your weekend and tune in tomorrow if you want to get some updated weekly and daily expected news peace out guys