Everyone screaming "STOCK MARKET CRASH"... but they're ignoring this signal

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Right, guys, I don't want to beat around the bush. I think there are some very critical things to talk about going into tomorrow. And one of those things is going to start with this right here. These are the daily expected moves that I put out on Patreon. And as you can see, we have some huge moves going into tomorrow. So something big is coming. And not only that, we do still have the earnings going on. So we need to take a look at some of this stuff because we really noticed the semiconductors have large, large moves in store for us. The Qs have almost 36 or 37% implied volatility. And the SPY has around 25% implied volatility. So I think it is important for us to just get into it. The first thing that I need to point out to you guys is the extreme amount of implied volatility going for the SPY, the Qs, even IWM and DIA showing something interesting, but still having some implied volatility there. Why is this overall taking place? Why could we see, you know, almost a 2% move tomorrow? Well, it's probably because of this guy right here, AMD. And I'm going to show you those daily expected moves here. That is something we put out for Patreon members. Whenever we can make a daily expected move for it of the list of stocks, we're going to put that out there for you. What we see here, AMD has 530.30 to the upside for this earnings and 537.50 to the downside. This is almost, I mean, it is earnings, but this is still, I believe, almost what? If we really look at this and pull it from the close from today, you're looking at about a 10% move up or down going into this. Earnings. You can see here from this little red icon here on the earnings that is taking place right now. And as of right now, it's in that upward direction with some green here. We're seeing that it is proving to be some good numbers. And this can really be important when we look at something because AMD does not have the best reversal signals in the world right now. But earnings can do anything. Earnings can literally pop this up to a second standard deviation. And considering that's almost 10%, well, that could be almost a 20% move, right? We could see something like this from AMD if they truly get some good news. That would take you to the second standard deviation being the 95% zone. Now, why is this important? Well, not because AMD doesn't necessarily have the best reversal signals. Earnings can do what it wants to do. But when we consider something like SMH, this is something that could take place here. So I just wanted to bring this to your attention. If AMD does flop here, then this is nothing to worry about. But I do think that bringing this to your attention for SMH is a critical thing right now. Now, this is some structure that was overall able to hold. And this would create that good left, you know, beating this high, that left head and right shoulder in order to potentially go to the upside here, while everyone is still talking about stock market crash. So I wanted to bring that up. And I wanted to show you the divergences that actually held here, even with a slightly positive move, I am going to consider it this time, even though it's not my favorite thing in the world. But we noticed that we did not give up this point. Maybe we're able to give that up tomorrow. But I want to show you something that I am heavily paying attention to, because that's why I put these videos out, we were able to hold that divergence point. So this is forming a potential triple divergence. And this can lead to a daily move to the upside, we can watch for lower highs and things like that, we will do that in the future. But it's important to understand that a daily move could be coming. And we noticed that this actually held not only on the MACD, but also on the RSI at the same time, we never violated this point. So paying attention to tomorrow, paying attention to these two hour charts for semiconductors is very critical. And I felt we needed to talk about it, because we have huge ranges going into tomorrow in the election stuff is going to be, you know, finishing up over the next couple of days. The next important thing to talk about is go look down in the description, because we have put out the weekly expected move video, you will now be able to, after watching that video in about 30 minutes, after 30 minutes of your time, you will be able to calculate your own weekly, monthly, any kind of expected move that you want for any ticker that you want. So something that I don't cover over on Patreon, if you've wanted to make moves for that before, you will be able to do that. And I do this by showing you how to set up a spreadsheet. So not only am I teaching you, hey, here's how you do the calculation, but I'm setting it up in a spreadsheet for you with the correct functions, so that you can pull that list down, and you can create as many expected moves as you want. That link is now down in the description. I know people have asked for that for a couple of years now. And I think that I was able to put it in a way that is proper, I really think that people can make some mistakes while doing this. So I made sure to go thoroughly through it and really walk you through how to make those expected moves with the most accuracy as possible. Go check it out down there. And Patreon members, remember to look at the post that is pinned to the feed, because that is where you can get your 50% off discount for anything in the shop. Thank you guys. And let's get into the SPY. We do remember one thing about the SPY. First of all, hey, daily expected moves, 765.32. I mean, if we really look at this, coming from here to here, you're looking at about 1.5%. If you want to fill that gap, you'll reach up towards that 2% level. So very, very big range going into tomorrow. You normally only see these type of ranges when you have volatility kind of well above 20. So we are above 20 in some way. We did get our 85% update. It was a 0.3% update today. And we talked about some reversal signals that were taking place, but no reaction just yet. The downside move here, 743.38 to the downside. So very simply, if AMD or the market just wants to vomit here, hey, we'll just head right down to that 74 or 743.38. If we are going to go up to these levels, right, we need to see what happens in this area. Do we exceed through? Do we make that new high? Because this is the bullish scenario. The bullish scenario is you are able to cross through these levels, maybe even going into next week, and then you are able to pull back considering the fact that you would have great structure to head higher with that reverse head and shoulders. The market doesn't have to do this, right? We've seen plenty of times where it just squeezes completely through, but this beating out this high would really be a huge checkmark for the bulls and complete damage for the bears. Because if you get a squeeze moment here, even if you want to go higher, you are looking for two-hour pullbacks to be bought up by buyer demand. Now what is the bear case here for the two-hour chart? Well, you are well negative. So right away, if earnings wasn't involved in anything like that, if we weren't seeing these dramatic expected moves, if we weren't seeing that, especially with the reversal signal for SMH, if that confirms, we'd mainly be saying, and I still will say, that because the charts are shaping up like this, the bear case is still the more probable thing to watch for, which would be, hey, do we get some kind of two-hour reaction up to this level and then fail to the downside in order to get a bearish roll, right? We are still negative. So if we go up to that center line and confirm back down into negative territory, just like we did here, we failed to beat out that high. So therefore we rolled. This is the scenario that we pointed out for the bears last week. We rolled to the downside and you saw some dramatic things happen. So that is very critical. The thing here is, are we going to fail this move right away? Let's talk about the 30-minute chart. The 30-minute chart here was able to confirm what you would say is like a higher low of its own. It's not the best look in the world, right? It's very, very dry here. All that has to happen tomorrow morning is you get one red bar like this. It crosses to the downside and boom, you are pointing directly down to that daily expected move. And guess what? Your weekly move is there too. So who's to say you can't just go there because you tag the weekly expected move 75% of the time. So considering this, that would mean that we would need for the bulls here to see that big move to the upside, go into that positive trend. That way we can see some kind of 30-minute pullback to keep going if this thing wants to actually turn bullish. Instead, if you come up to these areas and you just set up a little divergence, or you come up to these areas, you fail down to here and see a little lower high, that can really give you a hint that the bear case, the two-hour rule is taking place. There's a lot to go through here because we are at a level above 20 on VIX. We have to consider a lot of these scenarios and you have to be very reactive and protect your capital quickly. That is the big difference between traders who stay in the game for a long time versus traders who YOLO everything into every trade. Managing your trade will make you way more successful over time. Mitigating those losses will really be helpful, so make sure to have a plan for if it goes wrong. Have some risk management practices in place during these times before we see which way this market really wants to go. Because if we consider the SPY here, it is in negative territory, right? We are in negative territory, but if we go back a bit of time, we can actually see moments here where we did have those reversal signals. We got closer to the center line. We dropped down. We made that new low, but then the market was still, even from these exact levels on the MACD, able to curl up into positive territory. And yes, we were kind of dry into the end of the year, but you still made a new high. You still ruined the bears by turning to the upside here. So we are by no means going to discard the fact that this market most of the time goes up. And therefore, I think it is a very, very critical moment to be watching the next two-hour move and making your judgments and having risk management practices in place. The cues, we can have the same argument from the daily scale. I mean, look over here. We had a dramatic drop. We completely crushed these levels, right? We crushed off of the annual expected move. We went and we went down dramatically, but that did not stop it in this case. That did not stop it in this case. We noticed that we were able to curl up. And even though we had room to the center line, we still were able to go positive. It means if I see a daily MACD crossover here, I don't want to have a bearish hat on until I see some bearish things start to confirm again. This is going to be very critical at this moment as we go into tomorrow, as we're keeping a close eye on the two-hour chart. The two-hour chart has no reversal signals here, right? It has no reversal signals, but you have a dramatically big daily expected move. You have 701.82 to the upside. You have 668.74 to the downside. This is almost 36, I think, percent. So 36% implied volatility, and that gives us a 2.4% pretty much expected move going into tomorrow. So something big is coming. And if that second standard deviation happens, if something crazy truly does happen, you can head all the way up to the weekly expected move tomorrow. So what are the critical levels? What's the bearish scenario? What's the bullish scenario? It's very similar to the SPY here. The more probable thing is the bearish one, right? You come up into these areas, you do a little like 30-minute divergence, and that fails. Or you come up into these areas, you see a big spike, and then the 30-minute fails, you make that lower high. You curl down the two-hour chart, and you're heading to the weekly expected move by Friday. So we will have to consider the bear case here. But I think that in this time, we need to also look at the bull case, because I think barely anyone is. And I know the chart doesn't look good, but there is a reason that we bring up this guy. While everyone is like, the chart looks awful, the chart looks awful, the chart looks awful, it's 100% going down. On this channel, we always leave this 1% skeptical guy that says, earnings is happening. Let me be prepared in case something that I don't think will happen, but can happen, does happen. And so what do we want to consider for the bull side on the two-hour chart? We want to say, hey, what if we end up taking out this level in the next week or two? What if we stop here, we turn back around, we crush through that level, and then we create the structure to actually head higher. And we make a move outside of even the monthly expected move, right? We'll consider that at that time. But right now, I just want to put some of these things, some of these ideas for you to trade like water, to be able to analyze both cases and not get sucked into one narrative. Because I'm seeing a lot, a lot, a lot of that on Twitter. If there is going to be some kind of bearish role here, here, right now, a two-hour bounce. Why do we say that? Because as we look at the 30-minute chart, we did confirm a blatant divergence here. We have not seen a good reaction from that divergence. Maybe on the 15-minute, it has failed at this point. But the 30-minute has not fully failed. So this divergence is still intact. We have not made a new low. We have not rolled the 30-minute MACD. So we see that on the MACD. We see that on the RSI at the same time. This means that for tomorrow, I need to be prepared. Because something that this means is the weakness and momentum can lead to a two-hour bounce. And I need to be prepared to assess that two-hour bounce. Can it take out this high? That changes things. Does it set up and get weak around this area? Well, that means that we could continue. So these are the things about the cues I really want to bring to your attention. Now, as of tomorrow, if you just get a 30-minute confirmation to the downside, it doesn't whip right back up, right? No reaction necessary. If the 30-minute goes to the downside, we can easily head to that 668.74. We know that. But as of right now, we have confirmed a 30-minute divergence, which suggests we should be watching for some kind of two-hour bounce at this moment until we see this 30-minute divergence go away. In this case, I think it is important for us to pull up Bollinger Bands for IWM. IWM has gone through somewhat of a tightness in here that then went into that expansion mode, right? This is how the market overall moves. Usually you get tight and then you kind of go into an expansive time for a bit of time until it gets tight again. We are tight right now. We are pointing down on the 30-minute in negative territory. That means as of right now, you would say, hey, this is going to cross down. But what if it curls up and breaks through the resistance that we do have here? What if that trend line is kind of broken here? Well, then we need to consider if that pushes through, makes a new high. Because of the tightness here, we can see an explosive move, and that would lead us into more continuation. So I want to bring to your attention 285.14, your daily expense. Look at this range, too. This range is huge for IWM. 274.44. I really want to measure these out just so you guys can visually see. That's a 2% move potentially in one day in either direction, right? So we want to consider that. But if the 30-minute does curl up here, well, the two hours just pulling back, this is not in a negative trend. The IWM is in a different state. The IWM has done things on the daily chart that the other indices have not. They have done this. On the daily chart, we have taken out the previous high. That is important as far as price action goes because now we can see how we can set up some kind of left head and right shoulder. Who's to say that that right shoulder is not just on the two-hour chart and you're going to see an explosive move to go try, right? I do believe IWM has the opportunity now. If it's able to see that positivity come in, I think it will try to go up and try to beat out that 296. If it fails before then, we're looking for that daily roll. If it doesn't fail before then, uh-oh, we cross through that. It looks like higher lows for IWM. This is going to be a very critical time and that's why I said we needed to talk about it. As we go into the two-hour chart, I just want to mention here that watch for any kind of divergence here, right? If the two-hour chart, I'm still going to go with the bear cases as well. Even if the two-hour crosses up, we heavily need to see a squeeze here for the bulls for IWM or else you are at risk of making a divergence and rolling that daily chart to the downside. There's a lot. There's so much to go over in these charts right now. And I'm trying my best to overall just bring it to your attention. Bring up all the scenarios that I'm thinking in my head that I'm realizing by looking at the charts. Bringing it to your attention so you can effectively trade like water, so you can effectively manage your capital, capital, capital with respect. Even though we do see that reversal signal, that divergence here on the RSI, we do not see it on the MACD. We have a lot of space to that center line. So this means that the VIX is very much so capable of just making a two-hour higher low or even beating out this area but curling up into positive territory, going to make those new highs. So I'm not discounting the fact that the bears are in control here, but I just want people to be aware and myself to be aware that the market does what the market wants to do. And I need to be prepared even if the low probability thing does happen because the market most of the time does go up. Now, this is something very, very good to watch for, though. Does the VIX curl down? Do we just curl up into positive territory and keep seeing volatility go? That can easily happen, but there is a divergence here. So that means that volatility could see and has probabilities now for the door has been opened with those confirmations that the daily chart could curl to the downside. This, as well, is still in positive territory. So we need to watch for a second reaction. But as we do see that divergence shown here on the daily RSI, as well, we need to consider if the VIX gets crushed here down to that 1504. If it gets crushed down to that 1504, we would look for a bounce and a reaction to the downside. Again, you can easily see the little head and shoulders to the downside we could create with this. So is volatility really pointing towards, hey, the bulls have trapped the bears here dramatically? No, but we do have some trap signals that are worth paying attention to. The main takeaway here is we are still in that earnings time. We are wrapping up some election stuff, and funky stuff does happen. I mean, go look at oil, right? We're going to look at that over the weekend. We're going to look at a lot of the macro side over the weekend, as I will actually have time this weekend with the kiddos. You probably saw those bottles in the back of my thumbnail. You probably see those bottles right now, actually. But baby girl's got to eat. So I think it is very, very proper for me to bring these things up today. Not just because the more probable thing is we fail here and go down. Not just because the more probable thing here is we get a two-hour bounce and it fails. But what if the lower percentage thing does happen? I want to bring that to your attention because for years now, I have brought up this guy. And for years now, this guy has helped out this channel. But for even more years now, this guy has helped me personally. So I want to speak about these things to you because it's something that I am blatantly paying attention to. And that's what I talk about on this channel. Things that have helped me. Things that I'm paying attention to. And we post a lot of those things over to Patreon, including that weekly expected move video. If you have a stock that I don't pay attention to all the time. If you have a stock that I do not make a weekly, daily, or monthly range for. And you want to make that range, you can do that by simply going down in the description, going and joining Patreon if you want 50% off. But it is there for you if you don't want to join Patreon as well. So consider that if you really want some weekly expected moves for some stocks that you're paying attention to that I'm not. But other than that, I just hope that this video was blatantly helpful to you. I do believe that the information put out in this video is very, very helpful. And I hope that it was able to put your mind at ease so you feel in control going into tomorrow. Because being in control of your capital is the entire game. Thank you so much. Have a wonderful rest of your night. Peace out.