Are we setting up a bottom this week? STOCK MARKET CRASH PAUSE INCOMING?

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Oh guys, that daily chart still has not confirmed to the upside, and we noticed that on the two-hour chart, that big, big, big, highly probable scenario of going up to that weekly expected move and rolling on the two-hour chart did end up taking place. Now, that did end up taking place, but we need to talk about some critical things, and you might be noticing that we got rid of a white line over here, and it was exchanged for a purple one. So we've got to get you those weekly expected moves. We need to talk about them, but first, let's get into volatility. Volatility here on the two-hour chart, climbing, climbing, climbing. We noticed the double bottom that we announced over on YouTube on Thursday, I believe. I can't remember the date, really, but we were looking for a two-hour bounce that then would fail, and the reason for that is the positioning of the MACD, but is this failing at this moment, right? Even if we come up to these levels, we'll look for reversal signals, but we don't want to be like really, really bullish when this is curled up, and now it's getting closer and closer to the center line, because all that has to happen is it squeezes through, and you're getting that selling to continue, so a surprise is something that would be necessary for that to happen, but if we just look here, is that really off the table? Well, we notice that the 30-minute chart is leaning towards continuation, right? We see the MACD, it's positive. We see we're going down into these type of areas, which is great, but overall, if the 30-minute charges curls to the upside, yeah, we'll look for divergences, right? We'll look for divergences that fail. We'll look for this to potentially create lower highs in the future that fail, or we'll look for a lower high over in this area for this kind of shape, right? We'll look for any reason that the two-hour can roll, because that's the highest probable thing here, but does this suggest that that is going to just be, hey, Monday, we're going to pop to the upside if we're going to squeeze, squeeze, squeeze, squeeze, squeeze? Well, as of right now, you do not see any inclination, any kind of hint of that happening. It can happen, but we don't see any kind of hint. So we would just say the 30-minute chart is leaning towards a little bit of continuation, even though we know that the two-hour chart is likely to make a lower high. We don't see an argument for that just yet, which tells us something about the SPY. It tells us that really early on in the week, we should be looking at more downside in some fashion. So we'll be looking for some more downside in some fashion early on in the week, but we will consider both sides here, because this level right here is at a critical, critical, critical level, which is that 769.22 level. The bottom side being 739.52, and we'll talk about that as well. Why is this level so critical? Well, because it's the level that we said if the bulls can squeeze through, we start to look for those higher lows that lead up to buyer demand, and we can head into the monthly expected move by the end of the month. The problem here is we rolled short of that, okay? We rolled short of that, but that still holds true. So if we take out the level of 769.22, then that is a big checkmark for the bulls. I just wanted you to be aware that's a big checkmark for the bulls for the time being, right? We know the daily chart is rather negative. We know that a daily roll is highly probable. We don't want to be convinced, like, yeah, this market has to come back. We want the market to prove it wants to come back over time with confirmations over and over again, with higher lows over and over again. That being said, we talked about how volatility was like, hey, the 30 minutes still in a positive trend, it can easily just keep going to the upside, which is going to cause the SPY to potentially go to the downside. We actually noticed that if you go look at futures or anything like that, we did see a slight downward move after the close. So just be aware that we could end up actually opening up at lower levels, maybe even down towards our daily expected move. But the big deal here is we were able to go positive in some fashion, which opens the door to two things, right? The two hour roll is close to the center line. We would treat that like, what? I could contest the low and go make a new one. That being said, considering we were able to go positive, we'll look for divergences. I'm not saying shorting here is a bad thing by any means because continuation is highly probable. But what we noticed from our lower weekly expected move is it's not suggesting that down here is highly probable. It's actually suggesting that that would be a surprise if we were able to do that. So the weekly expected move setting at 739.52 tells us that even if the SPY comes all the way down to this level, considering you tag one side 75% of the time each and every week, if we still just confirm to the upside, is that what? Is that a higher low? Yes, it is. The MACD would come into that negative territory and then be able to curl to the upside, getting closer to positive territory. This would be the higher low scenario. This would be the higher low hint on the two-hour chart that suggests a big daily move is coming. A big daily move can look like this and we'll look for some kind of role, right? We have to see the market continue to prove itself with two-hour higher lows, even if we take out that 769.22 level. So I just wanted to put this out there because this is very, very important. The weekly expected moves are suggesting you can head to the downside. VIX is suggesting that you can head to the downside. The SPY is curled down right by the center line, suggesting we can head to the downside early on next week. But if we run into that weekly expected move and we start to see some two-hour confirmations to the upside, that is a higher low. That does suggest the daily move to the upside can come. Now, we look at the 30-minute. We're not surprised by this. We're seeing that the 30-minute is not looking that strong. We're seeing some kind of just like, you know, pretty much terrible buying at this point going directly into those sellers. And so rejection here can easily take place. Rejection here is easily, easily able to take place. And so if the 30-minute chart doesn't have any kind of hints for me, yeah, it's kind of close to the center line. So still test the high and go make another one is on the table. But is that a really good opportunity? For me, that would not be. It's too negative for me. And I really like to play two-hour swings, not 30-minute ones. But if the 30-minute confirms here, you see it squeeze through for a moment, come back. Uh-oh, where's my target? The weekly expected move, right? We see the structure right away. The other thing that I would say is if the 30-minute actually creates some kind of role in here, that's where we would more so look towards that weekly expected move. I think the big deal here for next week will be, do we see hints? This is our period of patience. If you remember us recalling or talking about this area, well, where were the next trades? Well, a lot of it added up to we need to see some sort of patience, a patience period before we're able to make a decision. The setup is going to have to set itself up first is kind of how I would put it. So even if the market is able to go up to that 759.41, a roll to the downside would potentially be in what? Into negative territory. And therefore, that can be a moment where we actually see a big drop and then we would look for reversal signals down by that weekly expected move. If we can see a 30-minute divergence or a 30-minute higher low pretty much at any point, then we will be paying attention. We will be posting that over to Patreon. But if we see that by the weekly expected move, I believe that would actually be best case scenario as far as taking a position, maybe an extended out position or even a position that is cheaper because I guarantee you that if people see the market go down to here and create divergence, they're not going to be paying attention to it. They're going to be saying crash, crash, crash. And if I see that confirm, well, then the two hour is very likely to confirm. If the two hour confirms right over here, right? If the two hour is able to confirm, well, then that would be a what? That would be a higher low. If that higher low is confirming, that's a hint that the daily chart can confirm to the upside. And if the daily chart confirms to the upside, you are looking for at least a big move up to that 769.22 type level. And if that move does come to fruition, well, then we would still be putting on the table the intention for the trade. The intention for the trade here is to catch a daily bounce, not to catch some kind of daily major squeeze to the upside. In order to do that, we would have to see this market continue to put in higher lows over time. That means being very fluid, being very transparent with myself and knowing, hey, the intention behind this is not to catch some kind of mega squeeze to the upside. The intention behind this is to catch some kind of daily bounce because that daily bounce is highly probable to roll based on the positioning of the MACD. The daily chart here for the Qs, you can see this as well. Very negative. No confirmation at this point. All that has to happen for the Qs, right? The Qs are a pretty darn good example here because we never did this. We see the left. We see the head. Where's the right shoulder? Well, if we are going to cross this up and we just go up to that level and we roll, well, that's still going to be a negative territory, right? That's going to be bad. But also, we want to consider if we make a divergence or anything like that, that's still a daily move to the upside. And I really like to play those. So as I go into the two-hour chart, we notice that we are able to curl down by the center line without taking out the critical level, pointing out that the weekly expected move would take out that level. So if we do this, we're looking for higher lows, right? We're looking for higher lows. We're looking for higher lows. But if we don't do that early on in the week, and VIX isn't really, you know, suggesting that that is highly probable to just squeeze to the upside, the SPY is not suggesting some kind of just big squeeze to the upside. It's highly, highly probable. So we want to say that the Qs, the Qs here being by that center line, we would still say have some risk of doing what? Testing the low and going to make a new one. And look at that monthly expected move right there. Even if you came down to here very quickly, you can make a divergence point. So I really want to pay attention to that. But we were able to go positive in some fashion. We noticed the downside weekly expected move of 655.53. Considering that this is not below this level, it would say that going below that level is less probable than stopping at that level and trying to turn around. So what we would look for is if this roll continues to the downside, can we dink off of that weekly expected move and curl up? That would set up the higher low. That would be the hint for the daily move to the upside. Fantastic stuff here. As we go into the 30-minute chart, you're noticing that the 30-minute chart is negative, right? It is negative and it is not confirmed to the upside. We do not see any kind of 30-minute hint and we would lean towards what with these sellers? Well, as of right now, we would lean towards continuation. That being said, if a squeeze comes, I'm looking for that shape, right? I'm looking for this kind of shape in here. That's what I'd be looking for at least to go to that weekly expected move. That being said, if we reject off, we go more negative here, it adds up to more and more times where we should just be watching for divergences, playing downside continuation until we see divergences or a higher low. So what is the area where I want to heavily watch for reversal signals? Well, it would be pretty much anywhere below this, I think would be a great opportunity. Anything below this area. If we roll to the downside first, people are going to get nice and bearish. If we start to see bounces and then we come up to these areas, people are going to clamp down on those and get more bearish. But as we head into the weekly expected move, people will hit that maximum amount of bearishness. They will start to say stock market crash. Twitter will be blown up. Everyone will say the world is burning. And then you sit there and you use your skills. And if you have three to five reasons starting off with the divergence at the weekly expected move, well, then you might be on the right side of a cheaper trade because while everyone's looking at puts, while everyone's trying to short, you're going, hey, maybe I want to look at a long because a daily move is very likely to come if we see a 30 minute divergence or a 30 minute higher low in this area. So very, very cool there from the queues. I want to go over into IWM. Remember that IWM in a different state, even from the daily chart, if the daily chart is able to curl to the downside, you have successfully fully rolled at that point. So one big daily confirmation like this creates a lot of risk. It makes the chart look pretty bad. That being said, get your weekly expected moves over on Patreon. That's where we post IWM and all the other stocks on the right side of the screen over here. We just added a few like SpaceX, MU, Intel. We added those. We took some cheeky ones out. I think those are great, great names that I've paid attention to before or are interesting to pay attention to now considering SpaceX. So if you want some levels for those, that's great. If you want to make your own ranges, join Patreon because you'll get 50% off the shop and you can learn how to make your own ranges. I literally put together a whole video where I show you how to set up a spreadsheet so you can always calculate a weekly, daily, monthly expected move. And then also in that shop, we have a full technical analysis course. If you understand ranges, maybe even know how to make ranges, but you need to understand having skills behind them is what really unlocks you as a trader. Well, then go check out that course and join Patreon first so you get 50% off. If you do that, you can only get it for a hundred bucks. That's crazy. So daily chart, though, if that confirms to the downside, that is suggesting test the logo, make a new one. That makes it look awful. But if we look at the two hour chart right now, there's something we need to consider. Yes, we pointed out the fact that there was a 30 minute double top signal in here. Yes, we pointed out the fact that a roll was highly probable. That being said, this was able to go more positive than the other indices. Now, this is still not positive enough for us to take off the table. Hey, testing the low, going to make a new one. That's why we called this a period of patience or even a short opportunity. We mainly actually use volatility to show you that. But this tells us that if the two hour chart is able to carve out a higher low at any point, that's a higher low that suggests the daily can reject. If the daily rejects, where is it going? It's going into positive territory. Could something big be coming for IWM? I think all of that is on the edge of or the proving of does IWM confirm a two hour higher low? The two hour higher low scenario is something I'm watching heavily. You guys know that I pointed out even last weekend. Hey, I'm watching IWM. I think IWM is going to set something up. That being said, just because I say I think it is doesn't mean I sit there and just take something willy nilly. I wait for confirmations and I wait for what? I wait for the 30 minute chart to show me higher lows. I wait for the 30 minute chart to show me a divergence. I'm going to look for that anywhere in this area right here. I will be looking for higher lows or 30 minute divergences to tell me, Hey, can this two hour chart curl to the upside? It's really close to the center line. It would be a higher low. This would say a big daily move is coming. I would really enjoy that. So at this moment, we need to go into the 30 minute chart. We noticed that 279.97. 279.97, that upside move. If we go up there, you notice we're taking out the bulk of these heavy sellers in here. So if we're able to get to that level, we need to see if this goes positive. If this is able to remain up there, go positive enough, we would look for continuation. But if we just get some kind of dry bounce that then rolls, we would look for that to roll into negative territory. If it rolls into negative territory and creates a divergence, hey, boom, I'm ready to go. If it extends, then I would look for that divergence down at lower levels, right? So either way this shapes up, I will continue all week long to look for 30 minute higher lows. I will continue all week long to look for 30 minute divergences from IWM. Because if IWM is able to give you those things, it's giving you a hint and saying the two hour chart can curl to the upside. And I can use these levels on Monday, like 279.97 and like 275.11, if we just come down to this area and dink off it really, really fast. Hey, is there just a double bottom that forms right away early on in the week? I want to be open to a lot of these things and understand that we are rolling. Understand that downside is still highly probable, but using my weekly expected moves, which kind of leads us into our main takeaway, right? So I understand that we are rolling here. I understand that this doesn't look very good. I understand that we still maybe even need to go all the way to that monthly expected move. But for how the market is shaped up for the weekly expected moves that we have, we have not seen a big surprise yet. If we get a big surprise and we look for continuation down to that week, down to that monthly expected move. But as of right now, we have to utilize the information we have. And so if the two hour continues to the downside, like volatility suggests, if we set up any kind of hint down in this area, uh-oh, what if that curls to the upside? That would be a higher low. And that would say, as everyone is saying, down at these levels, crash, crash, crash, crash, crash, crash. They are about to miss out on a big daily bounce to the upside. So thank you guys so much for watching today. I really appreciate you being here. And I hope that this was enough that you can kind of be able to take on your weekend without any kind of burden of needing to stare at stocks the whole time. I think that we need to keep things important for where the most important things are. And that would be with your family. That would be with your friends. And that would even be, I would say, in yourself. I do think that if you can't hang out with friends or family this weekend, I think it's a great idea. Go treat yourself. Go to the gym. Treat yourself to a nice meal afterwards. And then just be prepared for Monday as the market opens up. Because I think it'll open up with some fireworks. But those fireworks may start in the downward direction. But do they end up exploding to the sky? We'll have to see if that takes place here. But if a two-hour high or low shapes up, we should be looking for a daily move to the upside. Thank you guys so much for watching today. I appreciate you. And I hope you have a great rest of your day. Peace out.