85% probability up day... STOCK MARKET LIVE

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Good morning and welcome to today's live show. We do have the daily expected move almost getting tagged early on in the day. If you're not watching this live, you can click through and see some of the topics that we're going through. Usually we do a breakdown towards the beginning of the video, but welcome, welcome, welcome. A little bit of a late start coming in right at the open, but right at the open, we see that that 85% probability for an update is coming in here. We do see some sort of 30 minute bounce. This is very, very normal to see as of right now. What we want to question is, do we ever form some kind of higher low to change path? Because as of right now, we have some very large confirmations suggesting that a weekly pullback, a weekly correction can take place. And even if we are bouncing to the upside, the more probable thing here would be to roll. So if we spend most of the day in this area, we would look for some sort of rejection off of the five day moving average. And that looks very, very nice to me as of right now. The two hour chart, this is our kind of, hey, if we're going to be wrong here, if the signals are going to reject and we are going to, instead of confirming these things to the downside, we are going to continue to fail them in the near future. That would be visual to us by the two hour chart, able to confirm in positive territory. That would be a way that the market can go do what? Test the high, go make a new one while it is near the center line. All right, cool. Well, I mean, that's basically what's going on. We know volatility is leaning towards further crashing. We know this 30 minute lower high over here, this rejection lower high, even if that curled up right now, we can see more volatility. But if we want to get that two hour to pull down, we would likely go towards that 1683 before seeing another reaction, which would add credibility to this bounce that we are getting here that we could hold it up there for a decent period of time throughout the day. The other thing would just be if we completely crush this at any point, we would need to see some type of squeeze and you just really can't see squeeze coming. Your daily expected moves aren't going to really help you too much with a squeeze or anything like that unless they dramatically spread out and we get a great confirmation. So it looks like continuation to the downside is most probable here. That means maybe I should be looking for some kind of opportunity here where I see a confirmation down and then maybe we even go all the way down to that weekly expected move, making an easy target. So as of right now, downside seems interesting to me. How are you guys doing though? I didn't even make, I might go, I might take a little two minute thing here and go make coffee real quick. It's a silly day, is it? It is silly. Yeah. Monday, Mondays can be, can be funky. It's like OpEx can do funky things towards the end of the day. And then it's like Monday. Oh, okay. Well, we can get some kind of dead cat bounce or some kind of, you know, I know I get what you're saying. I just, I don't really pay too much attention to that. I'm more careful with the like Vixpiration, uh, which we do have Vixpiration in two days. That's right. In two days. So going into OpEx, we did have, uh, this upward move. It wouldn't, it wouldn't be totally off the table to see some kind of downside into Wednesday, right? It would not be off the table to spend all this time going down like this. And then Wednesday start to creep to the upside again. So Vixpiration did come after OpEx is what I'm trying to get out of here. But it's just, you know, if this two hours able to cross up, you would need to really see that fail. And while this is crossed up, you treat it like you can test high, go make a new one. 75% of the time you're going to hit one of these sides. So if this two hour crosses up, even though volatility is suggesting a higher low, you still would say, Hey, this is where that can happen. If this crosses up in here, this is where this can happen. And the trade can completely go wrong. Uh, so it means management of risk is definitely necessary on the two hour chart. And what you would look for is just say VIX is still calling out a higher low. So what you would look for is probably still just like, we're not able to beat the high and go make a new one. But instead we just curl up over here and then we kind of roll it going into Wednesday, right? We just kind of fade, fade, fade. Oh no. And then we tip over. So it'd just be kind of a dry run for a few days is, is kind of there. But, um, overall, I think, I think we're just looking at the 30 minute chart throughout the day. Let's let some people trickle in. I'm going to go make coffee real quick, real quick guys. All right. So make sure to hit that like button and tell people if they come into the chat, make sure to say, we are here, right? We're here. We're here today. We are here making coffee. Oh man. I want a coffee sponsor. Shouldn't we get, we should like, that's the one sponsor I would get is a coffee sponsor. If there was ever a guy who gave me a sample of their coffee and I was like, wow, that's fantastic. I think other people should drink it while they trade. That's the, that's the sponsorship we all want, right? All right. Good morning guys. We are here, but I'm going to go make coffee real quick. All right. I'll be right back. Oh wait, let's give you guys second standard deviation before I go in case we get there in the next two minutes. Uh, 751, 751, 25. Yeah, 751. So like right there and I'll leave my mouse there for now. [00:05:59] Speaker 2: All right guys, be right back. [00:06:24] Speaker ?: So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. So like right there and I'll be right back. [00:06:41] Speaker 2: All right, we got to heat up that water, you know, we got to heat up that water for that French press heat, you know what I'm saying? [00:07:07] Speaker 1: Wee, wee, yes, okay, yeah, we've got that that French press going. I got to heat up some water real quick though. Um, yeah, so if you didn't hear 751, like 25 is going to be your second standard deviation. Even if we want to get there, that would be a good sign for the bulls. It would but you would probably need to extend a little bit further if you like come up into these areas and you even reach up to that 751 even by the end of the day and then you end up rolling tomorrow. It's just, it's just still going to be a negative trend. We would look out for divergence though. Like if we're really going to trick and trap and actually head to the upside this week. I think this would be a much more likely way to do so. Um, the reason for that being you would kind of ping pong around in the middle of the week, right? You ping pong around in the middle of the week and then people don't notice. But you set up this divergence going into like Wednesday or maybe Thursday. Um, I think that would be very interesting because then if you set that up, the two hour could curl up and actually get to that weekly expected move by Friday. So I think that'd be super cool. [00:08:12] Speaker ?: What did I do today? [00:08:12] Speaker 1: I would say Thursday. [00:08:13] Speaker ?: Yeah, we're good. We're good. [00:08:15] Speaker 1: It kisses me off. Should it? [00:08:17] Speaker 2: It kind of does make you mad sometimes. [00:08:18] Speaker ?: Uh, DJ G. [00:08:19] Speaker 2: No, it kind of makes you mad. Uh, I get, I get what you're saying. [00:08:22] Speaker ?: I know what you're saying. I know what you're saying. I know what you're saying. [00:08:25] Speaker 2: You don't really have like the best signals to say like, Hey, can I play that 90? [00:08:30] Speaker 1: I do this sometimes, by the way, I'll look at a five or a 15 minute chart and be like, Hey, if we're getting an 85% probability for the next day, like if we're getting an 85% probability for the next day. Like it's pretty set that we're going to get it like we like it showed on Friday, I'll look at the five minute chart and just be like, Hey, do I want to risk just a little bit of money behind this for the 85% probability on Monday for a bounce? Because the five minute is showing divergence really close to the center line. Um, in this case, it might've been the 15 minute. Yeah, 15 minutes. So if you were able to like have some, you had to have a little bit of huevos cause you don't really have a good confirmation here. Uh, you didn't even have it on the RSI or anything like that. You didn't have it on the MACD before this price action right here. So if you wanted to, you probably had to have some balls with it, look at the five or 10 minute chart and trust it. And that's, that is something that I do. And then I just scalp it right away. Right. We just, we just get rid of it right away. We take it down here and if it works out, you get rid of it. Um, I would like to say when I do make those type of plays, I did not do it. Um, in this case, I haven't done that too often, but during bear markets, I really like to do it. Um, where you can eat like, uh, during bear markets, I really like to do it because you'll get bigger reactions than even what you're seeing here. Uh, some bear markets, your daily expected move would already be at that second standard deviation. Cause your volatility is so much higher that this bounce can literally take you up to there by like noon. Um, but usually still, if I see some kind of massive gap up or something like that, I just, I'm quick to take profit with it. And, um, the other thing about it is it's never a huge position. I'm pretty manageable with my position sizes the last like year and a half. Um, I still do think I'm still not comfortable with markets, even though I know that like these things continue for a long time. I still, especially going into 2025, 2026, I still wasn't the happiest with how things look, but overall, this is like really small position. This will be like a few contracts and maybe, um, and I'll be playing like a, still a two week option with that just to, in case I need to mitigate risk and take, in case it goes the other way. In case it doesn't confirm up on Monday and we go down to here. Okay. Now I can like maybe hold that for some kind of bounce. Right. And then see if we set up another trade going into Tuesday that I can play or something like that. But yeah, five, five minute. Like I understand. It is frustrating though. And we're still making coffee. I'm just leaving this here. Cause I don't want to retype it. I'm pretty sure we go over the 85% probability in the, um, in the volatility section. We have an entire section about volatility in there. Um, yeah, guys, of course, still 80% off. It's going to be 80% off until the, until my birthday, pretty much end of August. Hey, we, we left you plenty of time to learn over the summer. You only got a little bit of time left. Not, not, not a tiny amount of time. You got plenty actually, but just a few weeks. Nothing goes. Bye bye. Um, as far as that stands though, this is, that's just based on the historical data. It's just something that, um, I kind of got into for just like a day. Um, like overall with like reading about it. And then I overall was like, okay, let me just look at how this behaves over time. And I've actually done YouTube videos going over that. Like when we've gone through periods of time where we've seen like, we had it in 2026. You had like eight in a row, not eight in a row, but like eight within a month. I think we had like eight readings of above 10% or below 10%. So we could use that 85% historical data, uh, probability. And it worked seven out of eight times, which is about 85%. So, you know, that's how we, we would look at it. You know, look at MU. Yeah. We'll look at MU. And then I'm going to go check on that, uh, that water real quick. I like that. I don't mind the rejection. Actually. I really don't mind the rejection here. I do believe if I had weekly expected moves, I'd have a better idea. I do kind of like the two hour on the MACD. I'm not going to lie. I do kind of like that two hour on the MACD. Um, there's two reasons. I like the two hour on the MACD over here, even with the blip. And even with the RSI, not having it, I would take that into consideration. Like I'm going to treat this. Like I'm thinking about taking a trade. I would take this into consideration with my position size. Um, if I had weekly expected moves that could give me another checkbox too. But the reason that I really like this two hour is I know it can easily do this. Go up into 952, 953 and reject. Come down and then set up a double bottom if it really wants to give a good trade setup. So I'm still leaving the availability of my brain for like, hey, look out for this to happen. Uh, but it doesn't mean this two hour can't be a nice move. And I can't just like take some off here, play the rest. The reason that I really like this though, is even if we do it now, or we do it after making it a version down here. I really like that shape that you're discussing. Yeah, I really, really like that. If you look at the daily chart here, uh, wouldn't it be so nice? Notice that this actually curled down the MACD. That's fantastic. You break that level, you get a reversal, you come up into here and then you reject, right? We create that lower high. That would be awesome. I don't, I just want, I want to make sure not to be bearish in here. Notice we're not talking bearish right here. We would be talking bearish kind of over here or failure of these continued failure of these signals. So really like that. I actually really like the look at this. Uh, that's why I kind of traded it with the mentality of taking a trade. I might look at this further. If I, if I had ranges, I would genuinely look at this. So laws is, I like this one. Yeah. [00:14:37] Speaker 2: I like this one a lot. All right. [00:14:41] Speaker ?: We're making coffee. [00:14:42] Speaker 2: We will be right back. We will be right back. [00:14:48] Speaker ?: We will be right back. We will be right back. We will be right back. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. [00:20:17] Speaker 2: all right we're back what did i miss [00:20:27] Speaker 1: oh i had a great weekend i got to see a bunch of uh bunch of friends high school i got my best friend from high school i got to hang out with him and his three kiddos that was hilarious um we went to a pool and then um after that i got to hang out with my buddy for my old my old work super great guy beautiful little girl he has and him and her daughter or their daughter and my daughter are just they're friends they're great they hold hands and walk everywhere it's fucking it's so funny i realized i just text one i was like where's the sugar we we don't we ran out of sugar we ran out of sugar i was like all right well i'm gonna try something weird today so i have honey in my coffee right now and it actually ain't that bad and so it triggers or fails on the daily yeah failure there laws would be not good right the two hour curling down is not a good thing um just to go over what laws was actually talking about because pretty much i just ran with it and talked about what i wanted to i think what laws is getting at is like you know yeah we can see that counter move right it would probably look something like just a just a boom and then you bust kind of around that one like 10 50 at 1050 uh but also i think i think you're more so like yeah if we just reject from these good sellers technically this right here you don't have to make that divergence point you know this right here can be a bad moment you know no i don't mind it actually the honey's not bad honey is not bad i didn't i'm not gonna lie i've never put i've never had honey in a coffee i'm not gonna lie earlier currently right you're at the money planning yourself it goes negative so like this is where you purchased i can't really tell you exactly what to do you got to do what you're comfortable with you know you got to do i don't know your plan i don't know if you're like hey i'm 20 years old i'm 16 you know 25 that's why it's hard to give those kind of answers um as far as like hey you said investing right where is it lucas i'm holding long shares let's see we don't know if that's a trade we don't know if that's a 30 year investment you're just trying to buy and buy and buy uh but what we can tell you is this if whatever my plan uh for whatever you're doing with the spy would be hurt but from a weekly pullback right then i would have mitigated risk by now that being said if the daily confirms back to the upside if that two hour goes wrong you can flip it right back in that's why it kind of matters like what your plan is because if you're very near term notice how reactive we're talking if you're if you're medium term you might be like yeah i'll just wait for the weekly con okay we saw that weekly bar down now i'll mitigate risk when that weekly turns back up i'll get back in right if you're a little more medium term you know kind of buying and selling every quarter or something like that um but if you're long term you're just going all right cool right i bought i bought in here i hold in here we retest in here i buy over here we go up to here i sell here right that's your kind of year-long plan um at least from my opinion right this is all my opinion so you have to do what's right for you i don't know enough information but this is how i would treat a few uh aspects a few scenarios if you will [00:24:33] Speaker 2: come on some funkies over here you know look at some real quick something's weird on my end i don't know if something turned on on trading view or something yeah that was weird yeah you see this i think i'm loaded into a [00:25:06] Speaker 1: trading view like what is it paper trading account uh i think it's because something popped up guys today if you if you want to check it out it's kind of cool it's an opportunity to make money just practicing um i do think it's very very nice to do so um maybe i should do this really quick there is there is a competition going on over on trading view i believe i i saw a pop-up for it it is a paper trading competition so that's that must be why my paper trading turned on it's a big rejection there for the spy [00:25:50] Speaker 2: oh let me do this right here copy [00:26:02] Speaker 1: i'm gonna do this really quickly i'm gonna put this in the description if you are not part of trading view [00:26:14] Speaker 2: okay um so this link here i'm gonna put it in the description it's just a trading view link [00:26:44] Speaker 1: link brackets aren't allowed all right now the reason i'm putting that there um i actually wasn't playing but the reason i'm putting it there is because i believe there's a competition guys and i think you can win ten thousand dollars if you win it um i i believe they said the prize pool like people i don't know i haven't right didn't really look too far into it but i do know that the prize pool is like fifty thousand dollars um first place gets 10 grand i think top 10 at least gets 500 or more so if you guys are interested there's a link down in the description if you're not part of trading view um you can you can get 15 because i think you do have to have some sort of trading view account i think if you haven't done free trial they'll let you do it during the free trial as well but if you click the link in my description um it's the first link there it's get 15 off trading view so anything you purchase on trading view the first time you'll get 15 bucks off just thought i'd put that out there especially since we're a channel that like a lot of people are learning um and want to practice like this is kind of real life practice i believe they give you a trading like a like a paper trading account that says you have a hundred thousand dollars it never resets and then you have to do it for an entire month and if you are successful over an entire month um the current i think i saw i you know i'm interested in that stuff i like looking at leaderboards and stuff so the leaderboard shows that someone's up like eight percent and they are number one right now so [00:28:21] Speaker 2: if you would like to it is there for you all right i thought that was cool [00:28:33] Speaker 1: oh shoot awesome dj thank you for shouting it out buddy funny vessel has caught fire in the straight sounds like it might be an excuse to use them for this fade do you think how you get the 85 probability i probably don't have a link i've been i've been i did that like i did that research like years ago i i could find it for you i'll try to find something for you okay i didn't i'll try to find something for you the xy looking bull flaggy exactly barker yeah that was a big topic from the weekend video just briefly at the beginning guys we went over the dollar and this is another reason uh why we're really like hey we are in a negative trend now and vix is in a positive trend all of these things are firing off at the same time you got a recipe for a little bit of disaster doesn't mean we won't see bounces doesn't mean we can't reverse around so we're still having that one percent guy on our shoulder whole time never goes away yeah i didn't i'll try to bring it up and maybe i'll show it off during a live video or something if i uh if i can find the old material [00:29:54] Speaker 2: good thing is i can probably find something i think i think i remember a little bit where it was [00:30:02] Speaker 1: yeah i cared more about seeing it myself like like um you know we've done it in in literal youtube videos and stuff like that where we go through them and we literally say like hey we've seen eight and we're about to see nine we've seen seven out of eight work out like it's just to show you those percentages are there yeah no confirmation up a risky territory right there so now now but you're five minute and no five minutes not gonna look good here either sorry about that sorry about that i didn't mean to become an asmr uh whatever channel right away honey and cinnamon i am a cinnamon guy i do like cinnamon i'm not gonna lie i might try that out the funniest part is i know we're out of cinnamon right now we we need to go shopping for all the the what the minerals or whatever the sentence in 1973 and god i thought about that uh but our uh we had some really kind neighbors when we first moved in really kind but they were selling their house the new neighbors are kind of they're not not saying they're bad or anything i'm just saying they're like hermits a little bit like if they kind of close themselves in and i don't feel like that's proper to disrupt them because that looks like just how they live their life you know what's asmr it's like where people like open things or eat things and all you hear is like the chewing of their mouth or something it's weird some people might like it here in the chat so like tapping people like build legos or something with the mic right next to the legos so you hear that stuff or or like a vac they'll like i've seen i i think it was like someone was like vacuuming their house asmr oh funny stuff man butter you like to fatten it up [00:32:14] Speaker 2: dang it that was the sip again i'm a sipper i'm sorry [00:32:21] Speaker 1: yeah yeah that's that's probably the better way to put it i did um obviously by my uh description of it you probably noticed i probably i don't really listen to asmr i actually really don't like it i gave it a try once i think someone was like building something or scraping off something or doing something and i was like all right i'll give this a try for it lasted two minutes and i was like this is i can't do this all right greek ship alleged to be on fire as well sounds like things are escalating good this is i mean not good but also good this is meaning that we have a clear narrative happening in front of us that kind of contradicts a big bounce here so we would be looking to hang out here for most of the day we would like to hang out at the daily move okay i can't do that j no no no to the egg yolk i mean it's probably there's gotta be some health benefits in some way to that but just a just a raw egg yolk i don't know about that i liked black coffee when i was actually buying like really nice coffee like if i go to uh um like if i go to a local business here god i should just talk to one of them and see if you guys like the coffee that'd be sick um but everyone's weird here not gonna lie they don't like to do cool things here businesses around here they don't like to take any kind of risk or anything um and i know that's crazy to say but uh they if i buy theirs like usually so most the time i'll actually buy beans and i'll grind them up myself and and then have a black coffee let's go check on we were looking at that hgx thing last week notice the failure here notice the failure here just wanted to show this off uh this is why the talk was so important about the daily macd being able to cross up this is why this was so important for us to say we need to probably see a two hour higher low or a two hour divergence and you notice that if we break down into here and you see a 30 minute divergence right there notice that the two hour will make that divergence so i'm really uh because we discussed a lot about investing during the live shows during one of them last week i just wanted to repeat back to hgx here and say hey look at this uh this is breaking down technically this is a short technically this is a negative trend uh therefore you would be playing overall downside and you would need probably weekly expected miz for targets but if this is able to carve out a higher low of its own right now if it's able to carve out some kind of divergence i am looking for the daily move to the upside the daily chart is in positive territory and it is right by the center line so in this area i will be looking for reversal signals if those do not pop up then i do not have a trade for nail or i don't have a buying opportunity more so for nail okay notice nail is already testing the lows this is because it's 3x leverage i want to mention that over and over and over this means that most of my analysis and confirmations would be on hgx but i might see it on nail as well it's just when hgx confirms it that's when i make a decision that's how i like to treat that okay sorry guys i'm a i'm a deep sipper i'm one of those frog sounding sippers smh we do have moves for let's go check it out two hours still like trying trying to turn around but you notice here like this right away tells you like correction becomes pretty probable here you have this with the blip not the happiest about that right but still like even with mu you heard me say like hey i'm i'm okay with that because it's not this deep but they're there it really is still there on the mac t the rsi it's not there so right away i'm gonna go okay this is gonna be hard to take out isn't it isn't it gonna be hard to take that out if you want to be nice to this you would say okay we need to take this out that's still like right next to there that's a massive move uh what is much more likely here is you know the 30 minute hasn't even set it up but it did just reject so we'll talk about how the two hour can move the two hour this is the one that i like to trade the two hour chart i trade it the most two hour chart comes up to here we fill a gap or get into that gap we reject off and then we go make a divergence with this wick that would be the likely time to get some kind of bounce but since we do if you will some people would call them crash signals that's why it says crash on the title um the but i believe it will be more so a correction at the end of the day on the weekly scale like a weekly pullback and a weekly correction two hour bounces up two hour confirms down that will be a negative territory aka if we do not take out these levels but instead just drift up to here and then curl down you would be targeting more downside for smh yeah i don't think that this this divergence here is close enough to the centerline for me to be very very confident in it i still think we hang out right up here the rest of the day kids i think i think overall q is doing the same thing i think keys are sitting here for most of the day i do still believe that we reject down but it's not about what i believe is not about what i think it matters what the market proves so if we just do this but i think we're gonna more so see like something like this take place that's what i think if you wanted my thoughts i just would like to see an actual tag of the monthly expected move and we had some major rejections on friday and confirmations on thursday from the vix futures if you recall which was pointed out during the live video so i appreciate you coming to the live video because yes we do still point out some things get pointed out here that don't get pointed out over on um during the regular youtube videos because we're watching it real time the other thing is patreon most of the time will get the most important video but you know live wise this is the best place for your morning patreon will get the update when like things are confirming like we did on thursday before the close that way you could mitigate risk or make you know take that information into consideration and then make an educated decision based on how you see fit but overall good i think i think it's doing exactly what we want it to do um part of me would have rather seen us come down right if you're talking about the cues this is why i actually said that at the end of the video is because i would i would want the cues to come down to that monthly move then get some kind of bounce to break it right i would kind of like to see us uh oh i would like to see us come down then bounce up to a daily then roll and then we'll see if we get divergences down here around expiration right we can get a bounce with expiration because vix is slightly elevated but i don't think it's elevated enough to to suggest it needs a complete repricing i think that would just be a little 30 minute bounce so yeah you're not high enough at all to suggest like some kind of two hour big move but hey if the market shapes it up the market shapes it up all spy at break even waiting for hitting the bottom weak excitement to get back in looking to hold long term but would like to hold a lower position yeah so i get what you're saying there um what you're saying is pretty much we come down into here i like that uh if i'm if i'm looking for good opportunities to buy each month then the months where we hit lower expected move would be great for me right if i'm just kind of like hey i don't care what the price is as long as it is um a decent deal during the month well then that's always going to be at your monthly expected move truly right if we come down into here rapidly you would go okay this is potential opportunity okay we bounce and then we roll again we go down to the next month the expected move you go okay this is my opportunity and then we're shaping up some kind of divergence maybe by then it'll probably take a little bit longer than that we'll probably get another bounce into another monthly expected move or something and then we start to turn to the upside that's if all this stays intact this week i'm just talking about potential buying opportunities and how i would treat it if i was just like hey i don't know i want a good price i want a decent price for the month okay then lower expected moves you know what i'm saying dj okay good you got me yeah you said dollar cost average yeah that's pretty much what it is because then by the time if you buy here like say here if the market behaves this way here and like here well then you're going to be pretty much you're not going to be right in between here because of this little buy down here so you'll be more so probably at like a 700 i'd say like 700 would probably be the cost average there so i think i think like planning that i think it makes sense if that's how you view things and that's how you like to buy things i get it yeah daily moves on the queues real quick uh 700 702 75 to the upside 687 91 to the downside we have already tagged the upward expected move of 702 75. i still believe we are very likely to hang out here for most of the day [00:42:26] Speaker 2: we'll get some kind of update [00:42:33] Speaker 1: 694 is the retest that i think will take place if we get the weekly correction so 694 is retesting into the top of this block retesting the highs while at the same time going about you know if we if we kind of take top to bottom here well this most likely will be in a good spot here for us to go okay 50 retrace if we want to go deeper we can go down to golden pocket right around 675 670 680 um this is more just to like display how that can be an interesting area but more so it's just a level i want to watch so usually in white these are levels i want to pay attention to if something were to happen so considering that we just confirmed this right here you see down on the macd considering that we just confirmed that on friday we actually confirmed the volatility signal on thursday and then friday after that on regular volatility we see here that that is a confirmation for a potential weekly pullback so i immediately i just go okay where would we likely go retest we'd retest into the good buyers so you see how the weekly chart here we have kind of that fair value in between here very very nice pretty much perfect that's that's most likely what's marked off here but it equates to also testing the highs testing into the previous zone so pretty much weekly correction would be like this and then we curl to the upside that's what i think is going to take place so i want to give my myself a visual representation of like where i'm going to start to pay attention for reversal signals if all stays well in here then i'm probably looking for reversal signals down here which means i'm very likely to see a couple of months where we doodle around and then we get into the third or fourth month and then we turn this thing back to the upside right just like eight weeks turn back up towards the end of september right that's kind of how i see it so that's why this is marked off i think that that's a great level to watch like in the future i think it'll become important you'll probably see it go away you'll probably see it deleted off my chart and you'll probably see a monthly expected move or a weekly expected move replace it eventually eventually if we're going to continue downside you are very likely to see some type of move right here being probably a lower monthly expected move if it was my best guess my best guess would say a lower monthly expected move will be there probably in august to be honest if we can hold these signals right here and end the month at a lower level [00:45:22] Speaker 2: q's might go a little bit deeper iwm will probably hold up pretty well okay okay mr mind callie [00:45:53] Speaker 1: remember guys if you want to join that competition though if you're if you're not part of trading view the link's down in the description if you want like 15 bucks off to go so it's pretty much like hey you get 15 bucks off i think you you can do the free trial with it so just just double check don't subscribe to anything that costs money until you see like hey can i do the the paper trading competition for free right free trial can i do the paper trading competition for free if you can't then come back click on that so you at least get 15 bucks off it's down there in the description if you want trading view if you just want if you just want you know a few more things on your chart if you there's something i don't use that you like if you need to um get another thing okay good my wife just texted me she got something sorted that was annoying um yeah if you if you just wanted to get something right if you just want to actually pay and subscribe to it so you can get a couple more indicators or something like that okay you can get the basic package and then do the competition but you'll get 15 bucks off regardless i never show that off we've had we usually only show that off around christmas time because i like to take advantage of the christmas sale i like to take advantage of that every year just by the annual christmas sale it's very very good or it's black friday going into christmas they always have a really good annual deal so you can always get the membership month to month see how you like it and then at the end of the year maybe you just say hey i'm gonna use it so i'll grab it it's a lot cheaper i believe it's like at least third i think it's like 25 off so just letting you know all the info before you make a decision just like we always do yeah that oh we actually haven't looked at iwm really um iwm failed to get to the daily expected move i think that's interesting but we reject off of what we reject off of the annual expected move there so you see that annual expected move right here coming into play remember here that if the two hour charts able to curl up iwm is saying if the two hour chart curls up everything's invalid um that is what's being said here because the daily chart is in positive territory this would be the first signal to watch for like hey this is going wrong we're actually going to try to turn back around notice i didn't say turn back around i said we're going to try to turn back around because still all that has to happen is it rejects right back down you're at the annual expected move so um actually dj very very good question earlier kind of about the dollar cost averaging at the monthly expected moves but i believe another point to that would be if i am someone who's just trying to buy when the price is good the annual expected upward move is always going to be a no-no does that make sense yeah the the annual expected move is always going to be a no-no right if i if we go up into that annual expected move that's literally like the most expensive but also it would say the uh the options market is calling out that you're very likely to dip from here in some way wanted to wait and see i get that i get that i get that the bounce is kind of what people are really watching for i if you if you really want the downside to continue for iwm though i do think that you're correct in saying i want this to go down i do believe that is correct in saying like i want this to go like that so we so we're not curling up by the center line but we're going deeper then you would have to look for reversal signals for a two hour bounce which means the two hour can go deeper we'll do this and then we maybe get a two hour bounce over here so i get it like i get what you're saying too by correcting it because you're just like hey you know we're the 30 minute could curl up here there's probably plenty of things going on in your brain maybe you're just thinking there's an easier setup in the near future so i get that i still think we just hang out up here all day and then we reject i think it'll be really simple really simple would be we're gonna reject we're gonna hang out up here all day vix opens up at what 2 a.m or something like that now if we're not going to do that if we're not going to hang out there all day and we're going to sell off then this is going to curl up look at this [00:50:16] Speaker 2: right by the center line [00:50:24] Speaker 1: right by the center line oof 30 minute curls up there then the spy is pretty much saying hey we're going to touch both sides or we're going to try to what is it called sand disc i've seen you ask a few [00:50:37] Speaker 2: times thanks for being patient [00:50:46] Speaker 1: nice little rejection there divergence rejection divergence here we'll see if we get a good confirmation don't have one yet okay i thought the two hour chart would have it nice dang it um once again a lot of these taking place where you have like little blips and stuff like that not my favorite thing in the world but i would say divergence still intact here uh no confirmation for the two hour chart the important thing probably here yep we have it at the same time so that means that if the two hour confirms we're going to attempt a daily move to the upside which is crazy because you've kind of already done the right shoulder in a very fast fashion but it does suggest like hey if we can really confirm up here we can see some kind of daily reversal is that reversal going to lead to a new all-time high you're in that uncomfortable spot so because you have taken out critical levels you will still be looking for lower high but if you can squeeze past critical levels squeeze and then continue that's where you would test the high go make a new one 30 minute though rejecting no confirmation just yet all you have to do is dip down like this and then you're just sitting waiting for divergence pretty much you're waiting for some kind of rejection divergence some kind of divergence itself to prove to confirm right it needs to prove that it wants to turn around or else it just keeps doing what it's doing right if something's in a positive trend or negative trend but if something's in whatever trend if i'm in whatever trend and we go up and then we go up and then we go up what do i need to see i need to see something different than that right so in this case we're negative so we'll pretend we're in a negative trend we're going down we go up and then continue down continue down right so what you need to see is like oh we're going to go down we're going to go down again then we're going to break through right that's kind of where your divergence comes intact we're going to break through and change the trend then we go into a positive trend and then you start going up that's pretty much your mac d right there that's that's what you that's what you're looking for all the time continuation continuation continuation until i see something that says we're going to flip the script now in this case i believe that would be divergence rejection divergence too the miners are down do you have a um copper is good to copper is good to look at it actually can tell you some there's some good recession stats on paying attention to copper i believe um just give me a ticker grumpy let's look at a ticker since you're looking at miners it looks like [00:53:44] Speaker 2: yeah throw the ticker out we'll look at the uh the macro trend first [00:53:53] Speaker 1: we did end up taking wifey out to get some food all right so don't worry guys your your um your donations from thursday's stream that you guys were so generous to give you know wifey was sick last week so she really appreciated the love from you guys made her smile made her feel good and we we went out and we had some dinner with some friends um but we were able to actually get out and have dinner and we have we have we really haven't done that as a family or together in a while so thank you guys appreciate it i told you guys we try to put that back you know donations and stuff like that usually we try to just go hey that's going to be for family time that's going to be for you know celebrating each other so thank you guys for that appreciate it yeah if you have a ticker though grumpy i'm down we'll see you know i'll look at it i'll pretty much look at anything if it's an opportunity as long as it's not like some kind of penny stock or [00:54:46] Speaker 2: something don't curl up yet yeah i i think that this is gearing up for a sell-off tomorrow i think [00:55:07] Speaker 1: we can do it right now i just think you're way more likely to trap people today too many people bearish look at this i don't know that can over that can that can if everyone's on one side then that can really take over but if market makers really want to rip people away they hang it here for all for pretty much the whole day oh i know blue brain i got you blue brains i just want to see if he's looking at a certain a certain opportunity i don't want to analyze for you know me sometimes i go on those 10-minute tangents like an idiot you know so i don't want to go on for 10 minutes and then him be like oh i'm not looking at that going down quite a bit more but what do you think is the longer term longer term i like longer term questions by the way first of all 30-minute divergence watch for it to shape up here [00:56:04] Speaker 2: oh okay that's a lot of chop on the way down [00:56:13] Speaker 1: okay so weekly correction yeah okay weekly correction is all you're looking at here this is a good buy zone right now that being said you know you got to do your research make sure you're doing your practices don't just hear some guy on the internet say something like that off collar there off off the top of his dome and then you just go he said it so it's good make sure you're looking at the right things i would say where do you look for the right things right that's a good way to put it you're looking for the right things to form anywhere in this zone i i would like to see us test into these highs if we break said zone that's where you have to look for that rolling so now we can look at the daily chart and just go okay if we form something here that would be fantastic right so if we did if we did this we tap into the top we get a daily move bounce and then you come back in again and we see a little like that'd be good or we spend more time here more time more time more time we get to here that way this can go a little deeper and then that divergence probably becomes a little bit more clear and that gets you from that gets you away from really watching like earnings heavily but also if you're looking from investment perspective once again good price um this is a really good price i would say that's a really good price um technically the guy who bought it at a bad price you can get it now for 43 percent better so if you're just looking at it you know like i want to buy at good times i want to buy and i did my research on this stock and i just want to keep accumulating then you probably have cycles where you're accumulating cycles where you're holding money holding and maybe storing a little bit of cash from other things and then once you store that cash or something like that then you go and you uh you acquire more of something like bloom energy i do think here the weekly chart is most likely just going to uh confirm back to the upside you're going to see higher prices than even over here to be 100 with you i think you can really climb here uh i do think that this is pretty fast to the downside so i'm not saying like i personally would not just grab whatever down here i would look for some kind of daily signal of some sort and then make a decision i would look for some kind of daily thing like this and make a decision but that's me personally and we could be different i want to tell you that this is a very good area to watch for a buying opportunity obviously those opportunities can go wrong but you know that you know that at this point you know if you've traded pretty much if you've traded for longer than like six months you should know that things can go wrong you know [00:58:54] Speaker 2: i like it edm matt i don't i do not mind it okay we'll look at uh what is it tech [00:59:08] Speaker 1: i like your 10-minute tangents dang not everyone does man not everyone does i gotta get better at uh at that you want to look at the tech b that you were saying so you're asking the actual question with this was the sea cover price is still strong but the miners are down is this a buying opportunity um you might look at the correlation between miners so maybe specifically tech b here and uh just a copper futures or something like that that might be a good idea do i think this is the absolute turnaround for this right now no do i think that we could build it over time here yeah um if we really look at this and we kind of we probably mark it off something like this and then we kind of take this end and we kind of keep these kind of lined up together you see that we're going to get tighter and tighter right if we pulled these onto the other charts we'd pull up bollinger brands you're going to get tighter and tighter what i'd like to see here is some kind of moment that tells me this wants to turn around and i get a successful retest i think that would be the best case here uh for something like this that being said we can look for divergence as well we can look for like a failure here that leads to more downside that then creates that quick divergence if i don't see those things though it's kind of hard to make a decision if i don't see those things then i'd probably be looking at the weekly chart to go down lower um and what i would say is as the weekly chart goes lower if i see divergence in here that's good if i don't then the weekly would have to cross back up on its own right we would have to just see the weekly get some kind of boom okay we're down by the center of the way to curl up um where where does it become risky where do i want to understand that the game probably changed if you take out this low then the game probably has changed here you do have divergences on the weekly scale okay you have divergence there on the rsi you have a flat or maybe not there right on the macd so that's why i'm talking about continuation a lot just because that macd doesn't have a plain and simple divergence it's kind of flat if not not even there so i just want to tell you the risky thing though the risky thing would be you don't create those daily reversals or they fail and then you break that level that's when you're much more likely going to see this like trickle into negative territory and start to look for what start to look for lower highs right we see the shape everyone sees the shape so you know that that's the risky spot um so that why do i point that out because if i want to play some if i want to play this bounce uh right maybe i'm playing downside but then i see we get here and i see good signals for a weekly bounce then that still could be an opportunity that builds back right but it might be worth it to take for a moment to see if it does but then if it rolls you just say okay i'm out and it was a nice little trade right where it was a nice little trade from this part to this part so there's plenty of ways to look at this plenty of different ways but i just want to point out the risky thing and then say that i still believe the macd being very positive here uh you can easily go make a triple divergence but that doesn't take away from the significance here the significance here is pretty crazy so i would need to see some good reasons i need five right if i'm showing any kind of weekly divergence any kind of divergence and i'm saying we're gonna still turn back up i need to have five reasons i need to have five reasons i need to have confirmations i need to have moves i need to have uh probably monthly expected moves on that one since we're looking at a weekly chart and do some profit i'm back in at 24 i think we'll go back 30 is your opinion would be appreciated you want to look at euro or euro euro similar actually pretty good situation here uh not as much of a that might still be a pretty considerable drop off but the weekly can confirm up right so look at the daily see how the daily is pretty negative here right so the daily is pretty negative we just we kind of broke through you notice there's like hey we need to break through this and then we're kind of building this we just broke through we get a counter move that fails that can easily happen so let's check out the positioning here you see how deep we are and we keep failing right we keep failing um we keep failing i'm surprised that this one here failed to be 100 with you i'm very surprised this one failed but it did right boom oh we're gonna go again nope we fail again boom so a lot of failures here for this um that being said i can look at this right away and go that's probably two hour divergence so a daily bounce makes sense where would that daily bounce take you to it very likely will take you to test in this area right here so forty dollars most likely uh two hour if you look at this let's see if the divergence is there okay with the wick you would more so call this a high or low but it's the same thing notice that we have the higher low notice that that got us closer to the center line if the two hour confirms up i am looking for us to go pretty much up to 38 if not tag 40. if we can do that in one shot continuations on the table if we kind of do this type of structure on the way up then i would be a little bit more cautious with eero whatever this is i know what it is i see it but um it is explained it is explained but not like i haven't given the the what's it called so if i put no what's the way to put it so in it we explain what it is we do explain how it's calculated but people can mess up the calculation to where that needs to be a video of its own and we have not put that exact video in the course where it's like here is the equation here's how you set it up in a spreadsheet um these are the calculations here's what you put in every single cell to make it work and then you type in the tickers you type in the price you type in this and then we'll go through like hey where do you get the implied volatility from you notice it's a whole video of its own um there is so much value in that that took me like a year to figure out i'm not even kidding that took me like a year to figure out how to make accurate expected moves genuinely it did at least six months to a year i'll say um because you have you need time to test things so overall yes it is explained but is it explained in a way that you can right away start to do it and just perfectly do it every single time and make ranges exactly like i do know i do give you a method though so i do give you a very simplified method using my fun account we do it on robin hood you can do a certain method you can do it on any platform though it's just robin hood i like the implied volatility so these right here all you like we teach you how you take the upper of one the lower of one and then that gives you the number for a range so you will get a way to create ranges all by yourself i don't see people utilizing that i would utilize that guys i know that the range isn't as accurate and when you use that calculation it's off usually by like three bucks or something like that it could be off by a decent amount but at least it gives you a guideline right at least it gives you a guideline at least it gives you somewhere to make a decision so if you are interested that is in there take a look at acmr yeah we'll take a look thank you for your donation appreciate you i don't like the 30 minute look as much here i know that's going to be probably considered maybe some kind of rejection but if there's no two hour divergence yeah you're very likely to make triple here so not asmr but acmr uh very likely you can see a 30 minute shape up a bounce here i don't know if that rejection would be good enough i probably would be looking still for the higher low i probably still would be looking for a test of this guy some kind of test here some kind of upward move that then fails to reject completely but overall you would say if the two hour chart curls up we're probably heading into like 96 dollars somewhere in here the very likely thing would be to try to come up then we reject and we head back down and then we kind of taper off a little bit more so you're kind of like this right that way we can kind of form that divergence over time so to our higher low to our diverse i'd feel more comfortable with this one you notice it's different from another one that had a rejection it just doesn't look as clean to me on the rejection the rejection is not too extended out there's not a lot of bars in it right now for the 30 minute so i still would probably be looking at this like hey i need to see a higher low to even go test this area i probably need to see something like this to get there like confidently and say it's safe to take a play you're in a negative trend so taking upside always going to be a little bit risky that being said if we just do this and we roll this would be a good one to take advantage of and then i would say i know that rejection here is likely so i would take pretty much everything there that's how i see it right now i think the two hour needs time to shape something up that's better but if you're looking at a two hour move then i think the 30 minute you just give that a little bit like another day or two and you should see something shaped up yeah it's really accurate see so you okay good yas see yas uses the robin hood method that we give in the course and it just gives you a guideline it gives you something to go off of that is pretty accurate it is pretty accurate i'm not i used it for a long time while i was kind of learning how to do the actual calculation better 34 and i'm adding around 80. i don't think that's bad let's look at uh like weekly adding around 80. if you're adding around 80 then that would be daily so you're thinking the daily curls up i don't i don't think that's bad you're not saying we're going to break this low at 74 you're saying we're going to hold right here create reversal signals and then head to the upside i don't think that's bad at all here you do have the divergence on the rsi that's a little uh-oh um but if you're saying hey i'm not really scared of that i think the daily will curl up that's fine the other thing i would consider is when that daily curls up okay the next push or if it's able to curl up we should say it like that if it's able to form good signals and curl to the upside and come up to here we will start to look for potential corrective signals as well um those corrective signals though we'll see we'll have to see about this uh if you want to do it either way you're kind of looking at that 65 right you can you kind of look in here actually probably right here 69 70. um that would be an interesting level but i think you'd want to see that push forward first then you come out into there then you turn to the upside because if you go right now you're just breaking that low and that's kind of risky you'd rather see that daily move of some kind first yeah i think you got a decent plan there decent plan 80 is good if we after that we get the daily move and then we correct further then you re-correct from there right with like a divergence or some on the daily then i'd be looking at um 70 so we we won't look at sock soul we will look at socks uh sock soul if you didn't notice socks l okay it's not gonna let me type it s o x l you see here this is 3x leverage so i'm gonna do the analysis on the similar chart that you want just i'm going to take out the leverage because that can mess with the signals okay socks here though we see a bunch of rejections okay that being said we need to really consider what that rejection would mean even if we get the next two hour move even if we get the next two hour move you look at socks this does not have divergence on the rsi can it turn around yes right but we're talking about good bad habits over time right now i'm not saying this is necessarily even a bad habit you do have a reversal signal here with a blip it's a little bit cheeky it's a little bit confusing in some ways because over here you would say higher low we're gonna go go go oh we just completely failed it but we did set up a divergence point for the macd that still got some room to that center you notice it would take a day and a half maybe two full days of buying to really say that this is going positive right you would have to see a pretty good move and what you're looking for is that next move to take this out right so what we'd rather see is some deadness and momentum here we'd rather see like an upward move that leads to a downward and then you test that wick and then you double bottom right we go like this and then you see that measured move and you go okay okay this and no well we can get there and then say i i'm not targeting that i'm targeting maybe a weekly expected move right maybe you can utilize maybe you can just be a critical thinker and utilize smh or something like that all right utilize those moves or use the robin hood method that was given in the full technical analysis course that alone that little robin hood video alone is easily worth a hundred bucks i'm being totally serious because it gives you some sort of guidelines right it gives you some sort of guidelines to make decisions accurately like more accurately than what 70 percent of the market because most people get it wrong so you'd kind of flip the percentages and say most people get it wrong so most people buy at the upward weekly expected move most people sell at the lower weekly expected move even with how many times have we seen that in the narrative everything's gonna burn hey guys we have a divergence at the monthly expected move we're gonna go up from here uh very highly probable here's how we would fail here's how it goes wrong but you know this is the more probable thing and then we go up so really if you just have those guidelines it will make you it will give you the ability to practice making good decisions over bad ones you have to see if you can adapt to it because sometimes people struggle changing that mentality because your mentality is going to say i want to take something with no risk or i want to take something with low risk but the times where it is low risk does not compute in your brain because you still think a good positive price is low risk most of the time a low risk opportunity is going to look awful it's going to look like we just went down 10 over the last month like those are opportunities so as of right now you have the two hour divergence on the macd i think that waiting for a divergence over here is probably the best scenario uh and you don't know if a divergence will shape up there but if you decide to take something early i get it you do have a reversal signal that does suggest a daily move to the upside can come so we will consider that even though i would definitely be paying attention to position size because you would not have five reasons here you would not have five reasons to take a trade if you don't have rsi you will not have five reasons uh if you get five reasons then you have way too many reasons to take a trade girls to the upside left head right shoulder we we would not like to see an even right shoulder though that's if you want to keep correcting that's if you want to continue down we broke the lows counter move you don't want to see an equal move though like in one shot because if we just go boom boom boom it's it's really going to look like what it's going to look like continuation you're going to start to pay attention to this right we always lean in the bullish direction because we have to the market most of the time goes up and these guys this has been a big reason the market goes up so i hope that that talk was in some way helpful that's that's the best i can say for you there i really hope it was helpful in some way we will look at google because i have moves for it don't like price action like this right out the gate um two hour confirms up you can save this thing but it's very very likely that you're going to chop around down here and then see some kind of two hour move i don't think that this is a great one to look at for a trade it's too rapid too rapid it will say what is very likely here i'm not saying you you know you it's your money you need it now it's your money you do what you want rejection here is much more likely a new low is much more likely here for the 30 minute chart the two hour chart though if that's able to curl up then it would say test the high go make a new one as of right now so if we never reject down but we just go boom then it would say we're going to test up here possibly even go make a new one daily daily rejection it's trying it's trying it just it looks so weird yeah see that weekly divergence you're in the good buyers here i think i think you just want to i think i really like this but notice how we're testing the high that's always good so that's what i think the spy or the keys need to do i'd still be open to 325 but daily is trying to reject so we'll see that would kind of lean us if google starts to do that you would kind of say like hey the spy is going to try to bounce like why would google need such a good bounce right now things are so awful if we're going to weekly correct time to go probably let's go j-law go do your thing microsoft has a good setup i haven't been watching um you see the five minute kind of carving out this double bottom that's mainly probably going to get you to this 401 this next positive move will matter because you broke this so anything that rejects over here is risky i understand maybe taking the play it's in a positive trend i totally understand that got up to the 404 curl up you need to see that boom though let's look at weekly moves see if that's uh on the table [01:18:30] Speaker 2: why am i struggling here [01:18:33] Speaker 1: 413 if you get that that move up to 413 if this pretty this i think one one move i would like to see this in one move but 413 i would like to see us just go boom now that's gonna take a lot of energy though you have a lot of time in there to potentially reject from these levels so just be aware of that uh to our chart not the worst spawn in the world really this was this was much worse looking this that you're happy if you're a bull that that was invalidated this rejection over here sends you for a test of these guys um but it rejected here again right this lower high confirmed yeah you're glad that that turned back up if you're a bull because that was saying we're gonna go test like 362 so i'm glad that that rejected if you're a bull out there and i hope you reacted if you are a bear i hope you were reacting as of right now you would say if the two hours able to cross up we test the high go make a new one so kind of similar it seems like the 30 minute and the two hour kind of in line here uh this double bottom though has only created enough energy to go fill that gap as of right now but we do know weekly expected move would be 413 so it'd be if i take this trade i'm expecting something like 413 to happen if i reject it all i know to manage that risk right when the 30 minute rotates down no confirmation on the 30 minute for upside yet though just be aware of that i don't think it's like horrible but this is where i was expecting a daily rejection so up down then we start to try to turn around did that rhyme up down then we try to turn around and sit up and down then we try to turn around oh come on those is it'd be it'd be kind of funky it'd be very like [01:20:30] Speaker 2: 70s vibe burn out where burn out winner that's kind of like uh that's like a like an old school detective show [01:20:42] Speaker ?: i don't know what's going to happen but i don't think it's going to be an old school detective show [01:20:47] Speaker 2: but i don't know what's going to happen if i don't know what's going to happen if i don't know [01:20:51] Speaker 1: i don't know what's going to happen i don't know what's going to happen if i don't know what's going to happen to run you got to break through these laws surely you would probably be doing this you'd probably be marking this off and treating it like a zone i wouldn't even get that wick in there i would just say this right here 417 truly you'd like to see like a boom up to here do something like that or boom through come back later um i don't know if that's in store though we still have remember guys we have those volatility signals going uh what'd you ask where asds i know you were trying to go trade so i think you're so cool no i'm not i was bullied in school my whole life in college i was like oh i'm kind of funny okay cool i'll go with that i think college i realized maybe maybe i'm not a loser i was cross-eyed man still kind of am i get a little if i get a little drunk or something i don't drink anymore but go cross-eyed a little bit i got made fun of for my glasses and being really short but on 5 10 now what are y'all gonna say no i'm just all right yes yeah you need time here very likely you need time this bounce came pretty randomly very likely to need time here the daily chart divergence is there no no divergence either weekly chart really dip and i'd be very cautious with this [01:22:36] Speaker 2: because you're wiping out these guys again there's not a lot to hold you up in here [01:22:43] Speaker 1: so i think you're gonna end up down there i think you'll probably end up down at this like these type of 40 levels right about there 42 50. it's just the daily trend looks bad so two hour trend looks bad daily looks bad so it's going to take time to form then we get a daily bounce then you roll bam that 42 4 250. ooh 42 50 looks nice so you have some time to pay attention i just like that we're pointing out ones that are at a discount that's a great thing but the weekly chart here looks rough man so i i wouldn't just buy things willy-nilly on this one you know and you know i say that almost every time you guys are kind of seeing how i look at things i like to use the skills on the shorter time frames okay dude lasagna's what's up you help make that yeah i'd be a little bit more careful with this one really waiting to make sure that this thing wants to turn i mean look at the weekly signal you see why i'm saying it wham and then look at this wham wham wham wham wham that's some weakness and momentum where you could end up down to 24 which which you should be happy about right a lot of people do not celebrate when things come down when things come down there's opportunity right so i just want to make sure uh that some people hear that like downside isn't bad downside needs to happen for you to make money if we never go down then it's going to be very difficult to make money consistently as far as investing goes or at least bigger percentages like better percentages what do you think about mu we went over mu a lot um pretty early on in the video what was our overall consensus on this guys uh there could be a 30 minute rejection i want to see that's it could be a 30 minute rejection if there's a good bar but i would like to see a 30 minute divergence you know me um two hour if that curls up i am going to call this a divergence though uh because we do see it oh no no this wasn't that one okay so considering you do not see it my apologies let me get this straight we've looked at a lot of charts today considering you do not see it on the rsi but we do see something on the macd kind of a weird one with the rejection here okay um we would still consider that this can bounce up to these sellers that's what we were doing to these sellers in here we bounce up and then we somehow reject then we turn back around as we taper better right we get some kind of double bottom here there might be a buying opportunity as of right now it's a negative trend so bounce into a drop is pretty much what two hour traders like myself would be looking for i'd be looking for us to form some kind of reversal here hopefully i have a weekly expected move here as well and then i'd be looking for you know my skills on the shorter time frame to give me some kind of entry it's very likely for this trend to continue as of right now um you only have this macd divergence so i would really like to see a divergence down here that would be best case i'm aware if we take out this level we have the opportunity for a higher low if we want to take out the even better level that would be like 1036 you would scream and then you'd back off dramatically test that five day dink dink dink dink dink dink and then we would curl to the upside and be off to the races with the daily move now we have to consider what is the daily move the daily move here most likely will be a lower high if it is kind of a dud even if it squeezes pretty good if we fail at any point here and i i think you can make an even high here and still fail but if we curl up like this and you see it curl down closer to the center line that's when this thing will correct even further than where we're at right now so that's how i'm seeing it as of right now but you do not have good confirmations you don't even really have great signals suggesting the turnaround is right this second aka an actual opportunity to take a trade in my book that is if anything we talked about here you like what you're seeing if anything we talked about here um maybe gave you enough reasons i totally understand you do what you got to do with your money that makes sense my opinion is i would be waiting for the two hour chart chart to show me some two hour chart two hour chart to show me something a little bit better and then i would understand that i probably want to take profit on this um just after a few days of positivity just because you're at risk of a right shoulder if it if it looks good you know you always watch on the way up that can change your plan can change oh maybe we're not gonna hang out here for most of the day what the heck [01:27:36] Speaker 2: i still think so but all right j-law's got it i want to sell anyway [01:27:50] Speaker 1: i'm six four everyone all the dudes in the chat start shouting out their height i'm six four next next you know we should do let's do a man exercise uh my max bench press i think i ever did with three reps was 245 or 250. that's all i'm gonna say and then i'm gonna and then i'm just gonna like look at the chat for 10 minutes and we're gonna see like five dudes just like well my bench we're such throws 300 see see i've never even attempted 300 i think i did like 275 once when i was like really lifting but i do the bar just all day i do the bar rest it on my chest turn to my right a little bit make a trade sell that bad boy pick up that bar keep going push it push it push it all day baby i'm skinny but i'm strong i love how see even my manliness came in there even my my prideful manhood came in there i'm like i'm skinny but i'm strong i better be strong man yeah i got a house full of girls i gotta be strong so with the right arm you always got to go to the right [01:29:20] Speaker 2: pinched charts [01:29:24] Speaker 1: yeah well let's let's point out some heavy lifters all right well nvidia is not really a heavy lifter and video is pretty easy most of the time right and video is pretty easy most of the time i mean look at its daily moves those are always like by daily i mean daily trend moves just oh by the thing okay it goes up sick hey we're gonna get a big bounce here okay probably gonna get a pretty decent bad oh we get a bit you know that's a heavy look you know what you know it's heavy though this one was heavy dude this this thing's heavy right now gme man i think or djt djt pretty heavy right now man actually daily higher low would be nice here what's something that's like crash that's probably heavy nail right now pretty heavy dude this thing can't get going pretty heavy and you'll live to 100 i hope not i want to be i definitely want to be around a while for my girls but i i hope i don't live to 100 that sounds not fun i'm dead serious too that sounds not fun i'd much rather be with my lord and savior at that point but his will be done homies dude columbus why you gotta man why you gotta do the way you gotta why you gotta probably say facts because that makes total sense like i studied you know you guys know you guys know as i say this all the time i i studied psychology a lot in college high school uh my professor in high school came to my parents and told me to become a psychologist i did not but i really love looking at psychology psychological studies all those things so that's why i'm like shoot that's probably facts columbus oh you said facts too nice yeah it's it's probably true that sounds on par [01:31:21] Speaker 2: and that's like pride i don't know if that's really psycho it probably is there's probably a psychological aspect that affects it [01:31:36] Speaker 1: i mean you know you're if you're a girl dad you're putting bows on and letting a little girl play with you know a brush to put on your makeup and stuff like that so yeah i can see it i can see my my man card going out the window a lot these days you know oh i know i figured columbus i know there's a test on that you know what i mean like if you study stuff enough you know there's a study for it well i'm surprised so i want to get back into running i want to get in like shape and uh the semi-pro girls team wants me to help like train or coach so i'm thinking about it but whenever i i tried to take on a coaching gig while doing everything i was doing and it was way too much i i just you know whenever something takes away from the girls like seeing the girls as much as much as i do right now yeah like even live video i think about these things still i think about these things going into august where i'm going to continue to do it right it's just i always have to think of the opportunity cost all right j-law hey good luck ibm oh i'll look at ibm man i'll look at uh ibm for sure oh my goodness what an earnings [01:33:01] Speaker 2: dang you didn't confirm before either oh that is rough [01:33:09] Speaker 1: yeah why does this look so awful you can see probably from way back in the day way back in the day 2025 oh gosh sometimes man all right that looks not cool this looks bad that looks really bad i mean you can always save everything there's always a way to be like hey there's something you know there's all there's always a way to give this guy an argument that we could like turn around this guy's always like hmm pretty skeptical of this that's an earnings hmm are we really are we really gonna go and and and test these right here these 2024 prices right you know this guy's always on your shoulder uh you know you're like hey weekly chart turns around you got divergence weekly chart turns around right now you got divergence but um that daily man yeah yeah you you gotta form some reversal signals down here before i start saying that this can turn around that being said discounts baby we like a good discount who bought the worst price well this guy oh yeah oh yeah just so you know 36 off the course down there that's that's way that's like my course down there is double percent off than this come on now no it's 36 off i mean i just don't think there's anything to really it's an earnings thing if you bring up earnings i'm always just like okay big move happened on earnings you know some rich people probably made some money off of a bunch of options from retail that's usually what happens during earnings oracle i will look at because i actually have like i i have a buddy that works for oracle a buddy well he works for a company that works under oracle or something like that or my brother was it my brother's old work i don't know either way you know i don't want to get my adhd going again i don't like that we violated this i really don't that that means you're looking for like what multiple point divergence or something i don't like that we haven't violated on macd though so maybe you just take it with a grain of salt and say it's pretty close looking at the two hour chart you see some choppy little divergences here that's those 30 minute ones you see divergence extended across right here i do consider that to be pretty decent um would i look at this from an option perspective or a buying opportunity probably more so buying opportunity and on that end because of the rapid downward price uh towards this 126.60 very good buying level in the in the past if we look at this from the weekly standpoint here we would say hey we're looking for weekly divergence right so this could end up being a fantastic buy it really can um you see too dramatic of downside okay we set up a reversal signal okay we turn around and guess what you can probably hold that bad boy for a full year at least we'll see you notice this was like a heavy resistance heavy resistance right resistance resistance pulls down well we break through we get a pullback then we start to break and use it as support support all right so support again so i would really be looking for daily signals to shape up right here um so you're not saying like they have to shape up right at this line you're saying if at any point in this general area general area right anywhere in here that means it could go down to a hundred okay cool we can go like this that's fine if we bounce we see that even go to 95 we create those reversal signals here that would be a good thing and it looks like an opportunity so just depends on how you're looking at it no i actually didn't christian i'll get you i'll get you i'll get you i'll get you [01:37:09] Speaker 2: i don't think i think uh overall oracle i don't think they're gonna go anywhere like you know what i mean [01:37:18] Speaker 1: what is it like cerner or something i don't know oracle i think overall you would be like all right it's at the it's at the level that's been an opportunity multiple times now it's at the level it's at the levels that you really want to be watching let's go look at tesla before i forget okay christian i'm sorry about that i know you were kind asking in there there's that daily rejection we don't like to see it i mean i think you're at risk of actually fallen pretty deep here yeah you're at risk of a pretty deep test you need that weekly to turn around and turn around fast you could get you could give a lot up for this i mean it really just think if you see an even one we always consider divergence we always consider turning around but if you get an even move here your abc leads you to like 288 oh i don't like that man it's almost like you're asking for that tag down here all right form a reverse signal way down here i don't know if you'll get all the way there though i think you just go [01:38:30] Speaker 2: put it right there and say we need a breakthrough [01:38:38] Speaker 1: no here one two come down into here curl to the upside that would be best case right there you just drift down for a bit and then you just see a squeeze over here uh daily chart looks bad though you know anything can turn around and start to look better but as of right now this does not look good uh this looks like it wants to drop off let's look at weekly moves uh downside 353 look at that three five three like right here you can come all the way down into here you will be wiping out divergence at that point you definitely will be wiping out divergence at that point that's 354 353 a little bit deeper if you break that especially oh earnings uh oh you know that's where you kind of are like i gotta kind of be hesitant around this time right here uh right on vixpiration too bro that's you want to know one of the most risky things in all of trading it's tesla earnings guys it genuinely is not because of the actual business not because the business is bad not because the business is volatile not because people don't like electric cars not because people like gas and not because of this not because of that it's just because market makers can see what you're what you're doing and most likely the move is already pretty set in stone it's just you don't know what it is that's how i see earnings so i think tesla looks pretty rough here guys that's all i'm saying i don't think you have clear signals for me to suggest up or down i think if anything the clear signal is down uh but i know we always look for the upward kind of thing i don't really see and besides just like hey the daily chart's gonna curl back up all of a sudden i do not see um a reversal for that some things don't give you a signal by the way just so you're aware i just want to look at it again though yeah even though look at the 30 even the 30 minute looks bad i think you're way like with with how it's sitting right now yeah without sitting right now you would you would say what's the upward move 407. no where it's sitting right now i think i think you're much more looking towards the uh 353 weirdly enough i mean come on you just wiped all of this out look you tried you tried you tried good buyers good buyers good buyers fail the last good buyers are right here and you just failed that too so um yeah i don't think tesla looks too hot going into earnings and earnings is always just i i always say earnings is like a 50 50 flip so if i'm gambling here vixpiration tesla heading to the downside i would look at how the spy looks how volatility looks going directly into vixpiration like if we see that two-hour dip into vixpiration you see a bounce from tesla that would be something i would consider with earnings and say you know hey vix is calling out we're still going to head to the upside right we're in a positive trend hey spy just got a dead cat bounce i we're still in a pot we're still in a negative trend okay maybe that helps me make some sort of decision but yeah risky game they're playing earnings so who's telling it how it is risky game earnings ah let's hang out here right let's keep hanging hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang out hang drop that would be very very nice i'd be very like we won't have a tricky week really if we just reject if we if we can reject and just see the 30 minute curl down we should be able to navigate things well we can see proper divergences we can target weekly expected move like there's all kinds of things there so i i thought iwm would genuinely bounce i really really thought this would bounce from these levels like i thought this would be able to hold up in these areas just because you have some real wonkiness on the two hour chart that really looks like it wants to confirm to the upside i'm not gonna lie that two hour looks like it wants to go or at least you would say it like this that two hour looks like a good opportunity for a daily move to the upside and we're still in positive territory so yeah i see what you're saying but if we don't confirm this 30 minute up confidently it's gonna be pretty rough and all that all that has to happen here is a rejection again even if you see a nice 30 minute move that actually curls up all you have to do is not take out this these levels in here pretty much like these two wicks you notice where you're struggling right here if you just oh right we want to see boom use this as support boom we want that nice harry potter because i don't i don't really think you can consider divergences with that look as of right now that was a 30 minute chart my apologies lol adhd sorry yeah it happens i'm so sorry i'm sorry stuffer adhd and i've actually had drank like 70 of my coffee so my wife's going to be annoyed with me because i want to talk a bunch today jason you're getting a demerit young man can't be late like this every day all right i will talk to your parents during parent-teacher conferences now i'm just playing brother i hope you're having a good day all right i hope you're having a good morning it's all right you ain't you ain't got to come in and say sorry i'm late but i know if you're just saying sorry i'm late so i say hi to you just say hi brother i love seeing people come in and just say hey hey man i had a great like like one of the first people hey man i hope everyone had a great weekend i know i did kind of vibe that's a good vibe that's a great way to start the week yeah exactly and i'm sorry i just read a comment from columbus a minute ago yeah coaching um you know you i just with with the coach and the semi-pro girls team it would more just be a consideration of you know like short-term money pretty much because i believe the seasons are only like two months or something but maybe i'll just go kick around with them for fun every once in a while [01:45:38] Speaker 2: well that's awesome jason i appreciate that brother that's that's awesome thank you so much for that [01:45:47] Speaker 1: jason i hope that that is not because of me i really hope that it's because you believe that this that we are doing something that is good for everyone out there for some people to learn um helpful information that's what i really hope all right not just because you enjoy how i get distracted easily new job so i can pop in from time to time during the streams now hey corey hey congrats on the new job what's the new job if you don't mind us asking if you do mind us asking just say i like the new job you know it's fine it's fine you gotta tell us but we we love people coming in and sharing some good news that's fantastic [01:46:27] Speaker 2: so i want 750 at least [01:46:34] Speaker 1: um your daily expectancy of considering is more so suggesting just sitting below 750 and i actually now that you bring it up i'd be very interested to see we haven't looked at these in them no no not that nope bad clicking no clicky click like that all right let's go here here 728 755 750 could happen yeah 750 is your your resistance a little bit here 750 is the perfect place to just sit that is right at this like right at the daily expected move this all day if we sit right in this general area by this move like literally like this we can sit right here right here right here uh that loses people the most money today yeah if we just sit in between like yeah where we're at now like 745 to 750 we just sit in between that level pretty much here to here uh most people don't make money today yeah you have a call wall today directly at 750 your call wall for the week though 755 we'll see if that's able to take place that'd be your weekly expected move what if we if we actually uh tag 755 yeah it can be resistance but um if you're if you want that weekly correction i don't think that's what you want i think you want to reject early on in the week and head to the lower uh weekly expected move um so here's how here since i have to sum up the video kind of sorry there's a thing in my face um overall what i'm talking about here is what we'd like to see the reason this would be so easy to read if we didn't go to 755 is because you'd kind of know what wants to happen next week already so if you come up to here and you reject down pretty aggressively then you already know what well it's very likely that we're going to continue but we also need to see a two-hour bounce at some point so if we come down to these places aggressively then we get some kind of bounce that leads into a friday sell-off then on friday you're setting up why setting up a potential divergence for the two-hour bounce so if you see a rejection here and we get to here you already know that we're probably going to see a two-hour bounce over here somewhere when considering all the information we've went through for a few days that seems to be the most simple way the market can move right now and that would be like the most like it makes the most sense the market doesn't always do what makes the most sense the market probably never does what makes the most sense but we have the skills to react and if we saw something like that we immediately have a good process of decision making so very very nice because we're pretty deep here on the 30 minute so we're kind of looking for that rejection into a deep move right we hang out here most of the day reject down you curl back up then you make the divergence then you go into that friday period thursday period boom boom boom boom there's your thursday end of day friday morning maybe bounce that would be because that would be the two hour taking out this level two hour takes it out two hour goes more negative right two hour goes negative negative negative negative into maybe thursday then you get some kind of bounce going into the pre the next week then you get some kind of roll and we had that monthly expected move um i might say you know the way we drew it took you in august so we'll see if it can happen quicker it will be a weird it will be a weird time with where we're at with timing wise but remember guys if you want to join patreon 10 days till the new month begins if you want those monthly expected news weekly expected moves were posted i think i need to pin it right now but they are posted on there in the feed for patreon i hope you guys appreciated last thursday's video where we pointed out the risk um before the market closed and then if you want to join it's down there in the description guys it's only seven bucks and you can literally get all these calculated moves and this is the real calculation this is not the robin hood calculation which is like decent this is the real calculation that i do on my spreadsheet so if you're interested in levels for you know we've asked a lot of questions about tesla microsoft google smh and then we have some little stocks down here we have abgo and jpmorgan down there as well all the indices uh tlt for some yield stuff as well some bonds so interested come do it if we see something interested we interesting and we believe that it will be um important enough to talk about we put it on patreon during market hours if we we give out daily expected moves every friday monthly expected moves every single month very very nice we tried to do we already did a monthly update for this month we probably do another one at towards the end of the month or early very early in august the now the i believe our monthly move talk was about that daily crossing up and how that goes to the upward expected move but we always talk about failure so the failure we talked about early on in the month in the month in that patreon video should have been playing out pretty much right in front of you throughout this process 750 though i don't know if you break through 750 i think that's where they want to ping pong the ping pong argentina tears yum i'm i agree with you my wife is argentinian and i agree with you i am so glad spain won [01:53:02] Speaker 2: i i was rooting for spain [01:53:10] Speaker 1: so i'm happy about it but i told you i told you i told you i told you i told people around the egypt game i said don't worry they're gonna put messy in the final they want to sell some shirts i said he i said i wouldn't doubt he wins it so they sell more shirts it's about money i believe there is a dirty human hand behind everything if you want my honest opinion but i'm very happy i believe he's a fantastic player but i don't like the tude as long as brazil and argentina don't win i'm usually pretty happy but yeah my my wife's if you didn't know my wife's family is argentinian and they're coming into town for my birthday next month and they got me a argent like an authentic argentina jersey and i've worn it once uh it's very pretty like the argentina jersey is so cool they're so cool looking um but yeah i just i know that he's gonna he if if they would have won it would have it would have been all they talk about for like three days [01:54:36] Speaker 2: box two tesla just dropped 350 then back up to 400. [01:54:42] Speaker 1: oh for earnings okay i was like did we see a crazy wick or something that's true you could look at that you could look at it that way earnings we're gonna spike down here and then we come back up yeah that's right that's the uh getting theta burned make sure you rub it in no i don't rub it in i never rub it in because i understand like messy's very obviously like probably what top he will be top five all time like always um i just don't like glazing that hard over people that's why like people ask ronaldo or messi i'm a ronaldo guy um but i don't like how he's played the last like many years i just i don't watch him i i my play style was more like ronaldo's that's probably why i liked him who would i pick to be on my team i would pick messy a thousand percent qq mackie is curling up on [01:55:43] Speaker 2: the four hour [01:55:51] Speaker 1: yeah i do like uh yeah that's that's columbus that's a big reason for why i don't like him as well by the way like i actually was talking about this with someone literally yesterday during the game i was like like do you want argentina to win your wife's argentinian i'm like no because everyone just glazes messy and i i just don't like the attitude and i'm you know same it goes the same the other way too i have but like the funny thing is i have an attitude when i play soccer like you know i have an attitude too i'm not saying i'm perfect or anything like it's just yeah that's how i see it as far as the keys on the four hour let's let's look at this question kiki macd is curling up on the four hour but about to roll over downward on the one hour right at the centerline would that generate generally be an indicator for stalling out as you predict or unrelated so cues let me look at the four [01:56:47] Speaker 2: for our four hour [01:56:56] Speaker 1: it's trying to curl up i don't think this hasn't curled up on my end i don't know if you consider extended time if you if you use extended hours or something this has not curled up on my end if you're looking at an hourly chart i think you this is why i like 30 minutes personally um hourly's never really helped me too much but you kind of be still looking for rejection either way like look how deep this is right it's super deep here which the 30 minute agrees with this right it's really deep but it's getting some kind of bounce so you might not see an hourly or two hour bounce until you reject from here i think you have extended hours [01:57:50] Speaker 2: yeah we we looked at ibm but i was just like that's just earnings there's no technical setup [01:58:02] Speaker 1: i don't know columbus i saw a lot of videos of interactions with fans and it really really like someone put a comparison video of players and they had ronaldo and messi in it as well you never know people's bias though and things like that when selecting clips but the the things i saw was like nobody can find one moment where really he was like like chained to someone that's all and that's that's a subjective video and stuff but over the years i've i've seen it so many times that i'm just like you know i don't have to support everyone if the hourly can curl up here you would look for more so upside you still would look for that bounce to kind of get into this like maybe we go up into this area but i i just think the 30 minutes so much better here but ibm was pre-earnings announcement their actual earnings aren't this week really thank you for getting that straight for us ibm really don't they have the [01:59:03] Speaker 2: they have the oh [01:59:11] Speaker 1: so that's from last week free what ibm was pre-earnings announcement their actual earnings are this week just to clarify that so this was a pre-announcement earnings [01:59:29] Speaker 2: really i gotta get out of here soon [01:59:40] Speaker 1: ibm is scheduled to report its official q2 earnings results on july 22nd that'd be of expiration however the company pre-announced weaker than expected preliminary figures on july 14th triggering a sharp sell-off [01:59:56] Speaker 2: you are correct sir you have found the magic number announcement on wednesday thank you casey [02:00:13] Speaker 1: so ibm was the signal not a good signal yeah but we have some funky earnings that can uh manipulate the market for a bit we'll see if it gets manipulated in some way using earnings being google [02:00:30] Speaker 2: we'll we'll see what goes on here we're already seeing some funky stuff [02:00:34] Speaker 1: so we'll see i would just be heavily paying more attention to the sby and the qqqs confirmations all right i want us to sit remember ping pong in between 750 745 that seems to be the area where people lose the most money that's right where our daily expected move is [02:01:02] Speaker 2: okay [02:01:11] Speaker 1: but even pre-releases are funky man so all right guys i think we've done a great job today you guys have been a fantastic fantastic chat today thank you guys so much you guys have had some great overall questions points you guys are pointing out stocks that are potential investment opportunities as well i think that's great to show off to people so that's fantastic but um i think what we discussed over the weekend and the 85 probability update we might get that today we look for further rolling if we can't roll we start to see the two hour confirm up we know that we have to take the correction off the table at least for a little bit so we'll be looking for that as of right now we do still have the daily confirmed in the downward direction suggesting a weekly correction can take place but let's not let's not be uh ignorant here we know that there's tricks we know that there's traps and things like that so if we start to see 30 minute divergence if we start to see 30 minute higher lows we should be expecting a test of the upward expected move we'll see what happens with this and we'll be on youtube later tonight to give you guys an update and some updated daily expected news once again if you want to join the patreon look at any of the links in the description join that paper trading uh paper trading competition or whatever that trading view is doing there's a link down in the description for you to go get a subscription if you don't have one yet or if you want to test it out if you want anything with trading view you get 15 bucks off using that code down there uh that being said it really looks like here that we want to continue downside but we're looking for the trick and trap always we're always having that one percent guy on our shoulder page y'all members be looking out for any kind of updates they may come out in the next couple of days we may do a weekly update and go through a few stocks but most likely we will be going through the spy the queues and iwm because we do have some earnings this week hey thank you guys so much for joining today have a great great great rest of your day please do so get outside touch some grass spend some time in the sun you know enjoy the good weather and things like that as well okay guys have a great one tell the family say hi and peace out