Will Trump sign the new Iran ceasefire deal?

[0:00] Negotiators for the United States and Iran appear to have reached a tentative agreement in the now three-month-long war, [0:05] but U.S. sources tell MSNOW President Trump hasn't signed off on it yet. [0:10] If the president does agree to this draft memorandum, though, [0:13] the sources say it would extend the ceasefire for 60 days and kick off a new round of talks on Iran's nuclear program. [0:20] The U.S. sources add that during the extension of the truce, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unrestricted. [0:25] Iran would have to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days. [0:28] The U.S. naval blockade would be lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping, [0:33] and the U.S. would issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil. [0:38] The nuclear issue, of course, would remain unsolved, [0:41] but U.S. sources tell MSNOW the first sticking point to be negotiated [0:44] would be the disposal of Iran's highly enriched uranium and the country's enrichment program. [0:49] The sources add the possible deal would also end the war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, [0:55] where thousands have been killed and forcibly displaced by Israeli bombardment. [0:58] Vice President J.D. Vance was asked about where this situation stands just yesterday. [1:03] It's hard to say exactly when or if the president's going to sign the MOU. [1:11] We're going back and forth on a couple of language points. [1:13] I do think that we've made a lot of progress here. [1:15] It's very clear that I think the Iranians, they want a deal, [1:19] and they want to open the Straits of Hormuz. [1:21] We want them to open the Straits of Hormuz. [1:22] There are a couple of issues on the nuclear stuff, the highly enriched stockpile, [1:28] and also the question of enrichment. [1:30] So, you know, we're going back and forth with them. [1:33] We do think they're negotiating, at least so far, in good faith, and we're making some progress. [1:37] Hopefully we'll continue to make progress. [1:39] The president will be in a position where he can endorse the agreement. [1:42] But obviously, that's still TBD. [1:44] I can't guarantee that we're going to get there, but right now I feel pretty good about it. [1:48] A big TBD, but optimism nonetheless, from the vice president. [1:53] The president, for his part, didn't speak to reporters on camera yesterday. [1:57] But Fox News is promoting an interview he did with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, [2:01] which will air tomorrow. [2:02] The president was asked what line Iran would have to cross [2:05] for the U.S. military to restart offensive strikes. [2:08] He defended the war, despite its possible impact on the Republican Party this fall as well. [2:15] Well, a deal that wasn't going to be good for us is the line, ultimately, [2:18] because, you know, I'm playing it out, and we're going to see, [2:20] and that's what I do. [2:21] I negotiate. [2:22] They negotiate. [2:23] They're very good negotiators. [2:24] They're crafty. [2:26] But in the end, we have all the cards, because we've defeated them militarily. [2:31] Look, they have no Navy. [2:32] Every ship, they have 159 ships. [2:35] Every one of them are at the bottom of the sea. [2:37] Every single one. [2:38] We take pictures of them. [2:40] We have people going down taking pictures of hundreds of ships. [2:43] We have consistently been willing to do the hard things. [2:50] The things that your predecessors said should have been done, but they didn't have the guts [2:54] to do them. [2:55] So you have really a very small window. [2:57] So if you wanted to play that game, then you would wait till the midterms are over, [3:01] and then the following hour, you'll attack Iran, because they cannot have a nuclear weapon. [3:06] Most people agree with me on that. [3:08] But then it gets maybe carried into, you know, the next election, whether it's a midterm or not. [3:13] So you have a very short window for doing anything having to do with war. [3:18] But I don't view that window. [3:20] I view it, I have to do what's right. [3:21] A lot for us to dig into with White House correspondent for The Hill, Julia Manchester. [3:26] Julia, do we even have an understanding of if the president thinks that this is a good deal? [3:30] The vice president seems optimistic about it, but what were the goals that they were trying [3:34] to achieve if not to tackle the nuclear question? [3:37] Yeah, we don't have an understanding yet. [3:39] We know that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have agreed to the deal, but this is really [3:44] up to leadership in Iran and the United States to sign off on. [3:47] And President Trump, as of now, has not signed off on that deal. [3:52] I think for the administration, the nuclear question is huge. [3:55] You hear the president reiterating that he does not want Iran to have access to a nuclear weapon. [4:00] And I think there's a lot of pressure on the administration to make sure this is a stronger deal. [4:05] And there, you know, as they would view it, than the JCPOA or the 2015 Obama administration [4:11] deal with Iran. [4:13] So right now, very unclear as to what happens next. [4:17] And in that pre-taped interview, President Trump really not giving too much information [4:22] as to whether he approves it. [4:23] And yet we'll have a sense, apparently, on Saturday morning, if he says anything more [4:27] about this issue. [4:28] I think also innate in that interview that he was doing with Laura Trump is the idea [4:32] that he knows the politics of this war is not good. [4:36] That does fly in the face of other comments he's made where he says, I'm not thinking [4:39] about the midterms. [4:40] You can't not, because the politics and the foreign policy have always been intertwined [4:44] on this issue. [4:45] But what does it say that in acknowledging, well, I could have done this an hour after [4:49] the midterms were over, but I did it now. [4:51] He knows he's put his party in a difficult position. [4:54] That's absolutely right. [4:54] And I think his comments earlier this week during his cabinet meeting saying, I don't [4:59] care about the midterms were so incredibly telling. [5:01] Now, I think defenders of the president would say that was messaging to Iran, because Iran [5:06] obviously knows that there is political pressure on President Trump to reach a deal, end the [5:11] war in an effort to get prices back down. [5:14] But the administration is still standing behind Trump on that. [5:17] I asked Scott Besant in the press briefing yesterday about what exactly President Trump [5:20] meant by those comments. [5:22] And Besant made this, you know, sort of this argument that he was making a statesman like [5:27] comment that he can walk and chew gum at the same time in terms of focusing on the war, [5:32] but at the same time understanding that the economy is very important and needing to reach [5:38] a deal with Iran. [5:39] But does the White House buy that? [5:41] When you talk to people off the record or really on background, are they buying that this [5:46] is a White House that can walk and chew gum or really that the American public wants that? [5:51] I think the question is, you know, obviously, I think the White House is sticking behind [5:55] what the messaging has been from the president on this and wanting to walk that line. [6:00] I think the real question is, how are Republicans viewing this, you know, in terms of is President [6:06] Trump really focused on this issue of bringing prices down on affordability? [6:11] We see messaging from the White House, for example, from Besant yesterday, this promotion of [6:15] the Trump Accounts Act, for example. [6:18] That's a way for them to say they are focusing on affordability. [6:21] But I think a lot of Republicans I've chatted with have said, even though they understand [6:25] the importance of Iran not being able to access a nuclear weapon, they feel that there needs [6:30] to be more relatable language on this issue of affordability. [6:36] And also maybe not the president calling it an outright Democratic hoax, like recognizing [6:42] that this is something that the American public is actively grappling with at the pump in the [6:47] grocery store across the board. You know, the other thing that I think that we were talking about [6:52] before we came on is just the sheer amount that this administration is doing. So this might be [6:56] something that our viewers forgot about or tucked to the back of their mind. But a federal judge [7:00] has decided not to block President Trump's controversial executive order that adds several new rules [7:05] and restrictions to mail-in voting, at least for now. Instead, the judge left open the possibility [7:09] for Democrats to renew their challenge of the order once it begins being implemented. [7:14] The order issued back in March directs the administration to compile state-by-state [7:18] citizenship lists, as well as use federal data to help states verify voter eligibility. It also [7:24] requires the U.S. Postal Service to deliver ballots only to voters on those approved lists. And it [7:29] mandates that states preserve election-related records for five years. The plaintiffs, which include [7:35] Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, argue the order could disenfranchise millions of voters. [7:39] And that it violates the state's constitutional authority over elections. The judge did not rule [7:44] on the legality of the order itself, emphasizing that federal agencies have not yet taken any action [7:50] that would harm the plaintiffs. And of course, the president has long criticized mail-in voting, [7:55] despite the fact that this is the way that he votes in many of his elections. But what does it say [7:59] that the judge is now saying, you haven't harmed anyone yet? You can start implementing this. [8:04] Right. I mean, it obviously leaves the door open for the Trump administration to begin [8:09] these efforts. And we could see the impacts of these efforts this year ahead of the midterms. [8:14] But I think it also sets up a prolonged battle between voter rights groups and the administration [8:19] and Republicans going forward. [8:21] I think what it really amounts to, to me, is you're watching the maps be challenged in court. [8:26] You're watching the way that people vote be challenged in court. And I think it just all presents so much [8:31] confusion for an American who's trying to say, hey, I'm just trying to do my civic duty and go and vote [8:37] on election day. And I wonder if you've heard any concern about that from folks in the White House [8:42] who have done a lot to tinker with or meddle with the way that Americans exercise their right to [8:48] elections. Well, I think there certainly is concern, particularly with low propensity voters, [8:53] low propensity voters, which have been very important to President Trump's key base of support. [8:59] Working class voters, non-college educated voters, younger men, for example, these are all voting [9:05] groups where we're seeing his approval rating really start to decline. And that's obviously a [9:12] bad sign for Republicans in a midterm year where we're not going to see the same type of turnout that [9:18] you see in a presidential year. Well, because the same type of turnout and the same type of people, [9:22] right? Because when you talk about the Trump specific coalition, the question has always been, [9:26] can the Republican Party writ large keep those voters when he's not on the ballot? It's why [9:32] people like Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff have said, we're going to make him [9:35] campaign like he's on the ballot. Although that hasn't exactly manifested, still some time to go [9:40] before the midterms for sure. But interested to see if that travel schedule picks up. White House [9:45] correspondent for the Hill, Julia Manchester, coming on to cover it all before the weekend. Thank you. [9:49] Thank you.