Trump delivers contradictory messages on the Iran war

[0:01] War is a messy and typically unpopular endeavor. [0:06] Over the years, Americans have grown to distrust the government and how it conducts war. [0:11] 55 years ago, the Pentagon Papers revealed that it was explicit U.S. policy [0:15] to mislead citizens on the war in Vietnam, [0:18] which incidentally, like this thing in Iran, was never officially referred to as a war. [0:23] It was a so-called police action. [0:25] And because Americans were misled, [0:27] the American people did not know of the escalating offensives [0:31] or the widening fronts of that war. [0:33] When the press began reporting more and more from the conflict zone [0:37] and Vietnam became the first war to practically air on American televisions, [0:42] the tide turned. [0:44] As the years went by, presidents got smarter about trying to convince Americans [0:47] about the value of military interventions abroad. [0:50] In 1999, you may remember this, Bill Clinton spoke to the nation [0:54] as NATO dropped bombs on Serbian forces in Kosovo [0:57] to prevent the ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albania. [1:01] That decision was divisive, but the message was clear. [1:04] Quote, [1:04] Do our interests in Kosovo justify the dangers to our armed forces? [1:09] I've thought long and hard about that question. [1:12] I am convinced that the dangers of acting are far outweighed by the dangers of not acting. [1:18] End quote. [1:19] When the U.S. was preparing to invade Iraq, [1:21] then Secretary of State Colin Powell gave a famous speech to the United Nations [1:25] in February 2003, establishing the case for war, [1:29] claiming Saddam Hussein was developing weapons. [1:31] That wasn't true. [1:35] No such weapons program existed, but at the time, [1:38] the justification worked for the American people, [1:41] or at least some of the American people. [1:43] A month after that speech, a Gallup poll showed 72% of Americans [1:46] were in favor of war against Iraq. [1:50] I don't think any presidential administration has gotten an A-plus on war messaging, [1:54] perhaps with the exception of the days immediately following the attacks of 9-11, [1:58] but what the American people are receiving right now from this commander-in-chief [2:01] might just be a sign of the times. [2:02] I don't think any presidential administration has gotten an A-plus on war messaging, [2:02] but what the American people are receiving right now from this commander-in-chief [2:02] might just go down in history as the most convoluted and misleading sales pitch [2:06] for a war in this country's history. [2:09] In a CNN-SSRS poll taken before Donald Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday, [2:16] you may have missed this, but he delivered an Oval Office address on Wednesday night, [2:20] 67% of Americans believe that Donald Trump does not have a clear plan for the war in Iran. [2:26] That number's gone up seven points since the first strikes on February the 28th. [2:32] It's quite an understandable opinion to hold, [2:33] because based on everything he's done and said, [2:35] Donald Trump does not have a clear plan. [2:40] And if he does, if I'm wrong, [2:42] he's not effectively communicated it to the American people. [2:45] He is employing his typical non-committal, say-whatever-works approach. [2:49] On one hand, he seeks to assure a spooked stock market that the war will be over soon [2:53] and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. [2:56] But with the Iranians dug in, it seems he also doesn't want to signal weakness. [3:00] The problem is, countries, international organizations, economic markets, [3:04] they all hinge on the president's word, and his word is not sound. [3:08] His address on Wednesday was the greatest hits of weeks' worth of lies, contradictions, and nonsense, [3:13] leaving no one with a better understanding of why we're actually in this war, [3:18] what the strategy is, or for how long it may go on. [3:21] He's declared that the war has already been won, by the way, [3:24] but that the U.S. still needs to, quote, finish the job. [3:26] Which is it? Is it done, or do we need to finish the job? [3:29] He first called the strikes on Iran, quote, major combat operations. [3:32] One week later, he described it, [3:35] as a, quote, little excursion. [3:36] He's used that expression more than ten times. [3:38] Little excursion. [3:40] It's kind of what you do on a weekend. [3:43] He's signaled that the war is winding down, yet more troops are being sent to the Middle East. [3:46] He's claimed that Iran's nuclear threat was imminent, [3:49] which is difficult to square with his claim that Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities [3:52] were, in his words, obliterated during U.S. and Israeli attacks last June. [3:58] He said the goal was never regime change in Iran, [4:00] which is hard to believe, given that Trump's first video [4:03] announcing the strikes explicitly encouraged Iranians [4:06] to overthrow their government. [4:08] It's even harder, then, to believe when Trump says that Iran's regime did change, [4:13] when the actual son of the last supreme leader was chosen as his successor, [4:18] and hardliners still control that country. [4:21] He claimed the U.S. had complete and total control of the airspace over Iran, [4:25] and then two U.S. jets were shot down by Iranian forces yesterday, [4:29] and one airman is still missing. [4:31] And don't even try to understand Trump's rationale around the Strait of Hormuz, [4:34] Iran's strongest leverage point. [4:36] It's always been Iran. [4:38] Iran's strongest leverage point. [4:41] And the closure of that Strait has rippled through the global economy. [4:45] In just the last hour, Trump posted on social media, quote, [4:47] Remember when I gave Iran 10 days to make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait? [4:51] Time is running out. [4:53] 48 hours before all hell will rain down on them. [4:57] Glory be to God. [4:59] I keep saying glory be to God because that's a new one for Trump. [5:02] Normally, he says thank you for your attention to this matter. [5:04] Glory be to God. [5:07] One of the many deadlines and countdowns he's issued. [5:10] Seems Trump has been improvised. [5:11] Plans for the Strait from the start. [5:13] A warning. [5:13] The mixed messaging you're about to hear is going to hurt your brain. [5:17] Mr. President, when will the Navy start escorting tankers to the Strait of Hormuz? [5:23] It'll happen soon. [5:25] Today is a big day where we're pounding a certain area that has very much to do with the Strait. [5:34] And I think we'll get it going very soon. [5:35] It won't be, I don't believe, too long. [5:37] We're knocking the hell out of the coast. [5:39] It's basically the coast and the water. [5:42] And it won't be too long. [5:44] And if France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, [5:50] they'll go up through the Strait and the Hormuz Strait. [5:55] They'll go right up there and they'll be able to fend for themselves. [5:58] I think it'll be very safe, actually. [5:59] But we have nothing to do with that. [6:01] In any event, when this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally. [6:06] It'll just open up naturally. [6:10] Aha! [6:10] The Strait will just open up naturally. [6:13] Trump's off-the-cuff musings about the war. [6:16] It perplexes even his own advisers. [6:18] Advisors who speak regularly with the president told Axios that he's mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan. [6:25] Quote, he likes to keep his options open, spitball with different audiences, [6:28] then capitalize if he thinks he sees an opportunity, they say. [6:32] Quote, nobody knows in the end what he's really thinking, a senior advisor said. [6:36] Quote, they had a plan for the first week and since then they're making up the plan as they go along, [6:40] a former U.S. official said. [6:44] Yikes. [6:45] Trump's shifting rhetoric and unpredictability is destabilizing the markets, [6:49] and in turn the global economy. [6:51] Just look at how the markets reacted before and after Donald Trump's Wednesday address. [6:56] When Trump first announced that he'd be addressing the nation, [6:58] markets believed that he might indicate that the war was winding down. [7:02] The price of oil fell below $100 briefly in the hopes that Donald Trump would announce a clear off-ramp to the conflict. [7:10] But he did not. [7:12] So right after the speech, markets reacted the opposite way, [7:15] with a stock sell-off and oil shooting past $110 a barrel. [7:20] Mixed messages. [7:22] He said that the U.S. and the United States have also left some of our allies confused. [7:26] The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has maybe said it best, quote, [7:28] when you want to be serious, you don't say every day the opposite of what you said the day before, end quote. [7:32] The French president also criticized Trump's renewed threats to leave NATO. [7:36] Trump said in a phone call with the Telegraph on Wednesday that he was strongly considering leaving the collective defense alliance. [7:42] So let's say we ruin our relationship with our strongest military allies. [7:46] What's the plan after that? [7:50] This is going to shock you. [7:52] But there isn't a plan for after that. [7:54] This is not one that we've heard about. [7:57] Trump's hawkish allies like Senator Lindsey Graham and the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will all say it's part of a strategy. [8:02] Stay unpredictable. [8:03] Bob and weave if you can. [8:05] If you don't stop moving, they can't get you. [8:07] Don't let anyone know your next move. [8:10] I would argue that Donald Trump doesn't even know his next move. [8:12] Maybe that's what happens when, according to NBC News, the President of the United States gets his war briefings [8:17] in the form of a daily compilation of the military's biggest strikes on Iranian targets, like a wartime highlight reel. [8:25] The unclear picture of the war effort is not due to a lack of communication. [8:28] We're getting plenty of communication. [8:30] It's a lack of a plan. [8:32] Instead of an articulated case, Donald Trump is throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. [8:36] And so far, nothing has stuck.