House waits on holding vote to fund DHS

[0:00] lawmakers may have an agreement to end the department of homeland security shutdown but [0:05] a vote will have to wait probably nearly two more two or more weeks potentially longer the senate [0:10] moved early yesterday to try again to approve the measure which funds most of dhs while excluding [0:15] money for immigration and customs enforcement and some of customs and border protection the [0:20] house though chose not to take up the legislation leaving a solution out of reach and the agency [0:25] closed until at least congress returns from its two-week recess later this month [0:29] on a private conference call with house republicans yesterday house speaker mike [0:33] johnson made it clear he has no plans to bring lawmakers back early and did not commit to a [0:38] strategy moving forward it's a bitter pill for johnson who called the deal quote a joke last week [0:43] but told republicans there simply weren't any other options left other than going with the [0:48] senate's bill house democrats say they'll back this legislation allowing it to pass the chamber [0:53] easily if johnson puts it to a vote yesterday democratic congressman mike quigley of illinois [0:58] and i spoke about this and the timeline of the bill and the timeline of the bill and the timeline [1:00] for the bill watch what he said this dhs deal is the deal that former speaker pelosi actually told [1:06] me on monday house democrats would have voted for so now that it's back will you and what's your [1:11] understanding of the timeline here we're not clear at all on the timeline i'm not sure we should be [1:17] taking a victory lap or declaring victory the bottom line is the republicans are going to do [1:24] anything to avoid reforming ice i mean the reason we held out and the reason this mattered is [1:31] reforming ice was extremely important to every american so i don't see that happening if [1:37] reconciliation works this way i want to bring in our political panel as we end the week former [1:43] senior advisor for political engagement to president biden john mccarthy is on set with [1:47] me and also with us former republican congressman charlie dent of pennsylvania you know charlie you [1:52] and i were talking before house republicans got on that conference call uh it was yet another [1:58] moment of frustration at the speaker many of these members feel like they are now being [2:03] forced to vote for the very thing that was the opposite of what they said they would ever vote [2:07] for because it doesn't include funding for ice and border protection i ask again what must it [2:13] be like to be a member of the house republican conference right now well ali good morning let [2:18] me just say this in politics you'll never say what you will never do because you may end up [2:22] doing it someday and that's where we are right now but for anybody who's been around for more [2:27] than five minutes in congress knows that when the senate passes a bill a contentious bill [2:33] under unanimous consent that is without opposition uh and and sends it to the house that the house [2:39] is going to eat it every single time now i get that the house is mad and so they pitch a fit [2:45] and they throw a tantrum but that doesn't change the fact that this bill is going to be considered [2:50] by the house i said that when they when the senate passed it i'm not at all surprised that the [2:55] speaker was forced to cave because he really didn't have any good options so right now the [3:03] government just that's a separate argument i'm telling you i got an earful from the the right [3:07] wing of his conference uh telling you why this is a complete capitulation and surrender but that [3:12] doesn't change the facts that this is the easiest way out at least for now and then they'll deal [3:17] with reconciliation later which is another story about whether you should use reconciliation for [3:21] funding the government but that's a separate argument yeah i do think that's a separate [3:25] argument but it's also sort of one of the realities of congress right now which is that [3:29] you really only get somewhere if only one party is doing it because bipartisanship in this landscape [3:33] so difficult. I also wonder, though, John, when you listen to Congressman Quigley there with me [3:38] yesterday saying, yeah, this is good that we're reopening DHS, but it's not a victory lap for [3:43] Democrats. I was fascinated by the fact that he said that. And he explained it later in the [3:48] interview as they did this because they wanted guardrails on ICE. And while they are coming out [3:54] of this with no future funding for ICE through this mechanism, they were already funded elsewhere. [3:58] It's still not a new guardrail. There's nothing new on ICE. Yeah, no, I mean, the Democrats are [4:03] still going to be pushing for some more guardrails on ICE. And that's something that they have support [4:08] from the American people on. But, you know, the important part of this, I think, is the Republican [4:12] Party is now sitting back and having to recognize that we're in election season and they need to [4:16] decide whether that they're going to be cheerleaders for Donald Trump or a kind of co-equal branch of [4:20] government that stands on their own. But I think that if you're trying to gauge out what a person [4:24] is going to do, you should always ask what motivates them. And for House Republicans, [4:27] the answer to that is going to be re-elected. [4:28] Right. And, you know, I think that they see the same numbers that we do and their backs are up [4:33] against a wall. And between now and November, you're going to see House rank and file Republicans, [4:37] you know, start moving further and further away from Donald Trump, because at the end of the day, [4:40] this is not because they found religion. It's because they're looking for self-preservation. [4:44] They're looking to come back to the Congress come next November. So I think that's going to [4:47] be the motivating force for them between now and then. I think John brings up such an excellent [4:51] point, Charlie, because I have been wondering when we will see House Republicans and even [4:55] Senate Republicans, because you're seeing Thune now already, [4:58] start to do what he can to preserve Republicans' majority in the Senate. [5:03] At what point do their own personal dynamics diverge from that of the president? [5:08] They already have. But when do they start acting that way? Do you see it the way that John does? [5:13] No, I tend to agree with John that many Republicans, particularly those in competitive seats, [5:18] are going to have to find some separation between themselves and the president. The president, [5:22] I get it that many Republicans need the president to win their nominations. But in those [5:26] competitive swing districts where they're, [5:28] where, [5:28] where, [5:28] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:29] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where, [5:30] where. [5:30] These members need votes from independents and some Democrats to survive. And the president [5:35] is quite toxic with those voters. So those voters in those competitive swing districts must [5:41] absolutely separate if they have any chance of survival. Simply keeping their bases together is not [5:46] enough to win. And so I think you're going to see more separation as time goes on, whether it's on [5:52] the war with Iran, on tariffs, immigration, any number of issues, because that's it's all about [5:58] survival, as John correctly pointed out. So let's look at the war with Iran, right? Because, John, [6:04] you say that when you were in the White House, national addresses like the one that Trump gave [6:07] on Wednesday were rare. And in this case, it was one that didn't actually have anything truly [6:13] tangible for voters to latch on to, right? Yeah. I mean, evening addresses like this from a [6:19] president are still so unique in American public life. It's still one of those moments where the [6:23] nation still kind of comes to a halt. People might move up their dinner plans a little bit [6:26] to make sure they're home in time to watch the president of the United States. You're preempting [6:28] survivor. Exactly. But they're going to come together and actually watch what the president [6:31] has to say. So you use them sparingly, because that's what actually gives them the gravitas. [6:35] And, you know, Donald Trump, you know, stood in that hallway, that iconic backdrop. I mean, [6:39] there is some power to that. But I don't think he gained any political points out of this or [6:43] really gained, you know, any clarity to the American people on this. And I think that he's [6:47] losing political support every single day on this issue, right? He's yet to provide, you know, [6:52] what the mission is. He's yet to provide, you know, [6:55] what the timeline is. He's yet to provide, you know, what the timeline is. [6:56] And more importantly, how he's going to pay for it. And I think that if he's unable to do all of [7:00] those things, American voters are going to sit back for a second and sit and say, well, I'm going [7:03] to question the whole strategy. Why are we doing this in the first place? And the fact then when [7:07] you layer on top of it, the story, Charlie, that we started our show with, that we are at an active [7:13] war with Iran, with many valid questions to be asked about what the exit strategy is and what's [7:17] been accomplished by it. And then on top of it, you're seeing the early beginnings of a potential [7:22] wider shakeup within the administration. What what word does that? [7:26] Lend to the tone of this administration right now? [7:31] Well, I think this administration has itself put itself in a bit of a box. Strategically, [7:37] somebody could probably make the case that, you know, Iran has some leverage right now [7:40] and that we might be a little bit worse off in the sense that the straight is closed. [7:45] Oil prices are up. The Gulf Arab countries are much more vulnerable. The rest of our allies [7:51] in NATO and elsewhere are pretty damned angry right now. And so from a strategic standpoint, [7:56] I think we've got some. [7:57] Real challenges. And of course, Iran is still launching. That said, the United States Armed [8:01] Forces has done a terrific job of degrading Iran's conventional military capabilities. That's true. [8:06] But in many respects, you know, I didn't learn anything from that speech other than you put down [8:11] a timeline and really didn't give any clarity or any explanation about how we are going to reopen [8:17] the straight, which, of course, is causing much of the economic pain. And so the Iranians feel [8:20] like they've got some leverage. I'm not sure how the administration gets out of this right now. [8:25] The time setting down the timeline, I don't think, [8:27] is really smart because we don't know how long this is going to last. So I think the Iranians [8:31] are going to want to continue to inflict economic pain on the West for as long as they can. [8:36] And then, John, quickly, what do you make of the fact that against that backdrop, [8:40] he's firing Pam Bondi and potentially others? [8:42] Well, I mean, for all of the volatility that Donald Trump provides, I think he's provided [8:46] something constant, and that's that loyalty is a one way street with him. So, I mean, [8:49] I think the last, you know, his first four years in the last, you know, year plus in office has [8:54] just shown that, you know, he demands absolute loyalty. And then at a certain point, he's just [8:57] done with you. So. [8:58] Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. [8:58] Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. [8:58] If I were advising the Republicans, I would sit and say this should be a wake up call for you. [9:02] This guy's not going to have your back at the end of the day, not going to have your back at the end [9:05] of the day and yet demands loyalty from all of those in Congress as well. We will see when those [9:09] paths begin to tangibly diverge. For now, Charlie Dent and John McCarthy, I thank you both for [9:15] joining us. Have a great weekend. [9:17] Have a great weekend.