David Ignatius: Growing feeling Iran can handle a long war better than the U.S.

[0:00] Now, a lot of Americans reading the news would rightly be confused and concerned that Iran, [0:08] that Economist report that we've all been hearing, Iran is making far more money now [0:13] on oil revenue during this war than they ever did before the war. Russia also, [0:21] another person outside of Donald Trump that most, certainly most Americans and traditionalists [0:27] consider to be America's enemy because they consider us to be their enemy. [0:33] Russia also, like Iran, doing far better than they've done economically in absolute years. [0:43] And it is the mullahs and it is the Revolutionary Guard that is making, quote, a mint off of Donald [0:51] Trump's war. There are perverse outcomes of this war, Joe, a month in. You'd have to say that on [0:58] the table. [0:58] On a tactical level, the U.S. and Israel are continuing to pound Iran and take out targets [1:04] pretty much at will. But on the strategic level, and I'd include the economic side as part of that, [1:10] there have been reversals. The degree of dislocation for the global economy [1:15] clearly wasn't anticipated. I think there's a growing feeling that Iran can handle a long [1:21] war better than the United States. We're seeing efforts to plan for contingencies [1:28] by the U.S. and Israel. And I think that's a lot of work that's being done. [1:28] And I think that's a lot of work that's being done. And I think that's a lot of work that's being [1:29] We're seeing efforts to plan for contingencies by the U.S. and Israel. And I think that's a lot of work that's being [1:29] U.S. military sending special operations forces along with paratroopers, Marines, huge array [1:38] of forces, giving the commander there, Admiral Brad Cooper, lots of options. [1:44] My own feeling, Joe, as I look at the situation where nothing but bad choices for the moment [1:50] for the U.S. [1:51] There's no real diplomacy happening, and you don't want to have a ground invasion of Iran, [1:56] do you? [1:57] So the idea of just kind of building up this force, waiting for things to change, waiting [2:03] for diplomatic options perhaps to increase, this force is capable of lots of rapid in [2:09] and out moves. [2:10] So the special operations forces can be there and be gone before you know it. [2:14] So it's a situation, as one of my sources said to me over the weekend, where the U.S. [2:20] might think about hurry up and slow down. [2:23] In other words, don't force yourself to make choices before you have to. [2:27] Wait and see. [2:27] Try to let time play on the side of the U.S., not Iran. [2:33] See where this is in a few days, in a week maybe, because right now, today, the choices [2:39] that the U.S. faces are not good ones. [2:42] Well, and especially, and we've been talking about, the president and others have been [2:47] talking about two weeks, three weeks, three to four weeks. [2:51] I must say, you look at all of the things, all the dominoes that have fallen over the [2:58] past week. [2:58] We've been talking about a week or two and keep falling at a more rapid rate. [3:01] Again, two things can be very true at the same time. [3:05] One, David, we are, our military continues to do extraordinarily well at striking its [3:10] targets. [3:11] And as I've been saying here, and I know you've been saying as well, we are achieving a lot [3:18] of military goals, but geopolitically is what is trying to get Chuck Schumer to admit to [3:23] the military is going very well geopolitically. [3:28] It's an absolute. [3:28] And of course, Republicans will want to focus on the military side of that, but not on the [3:33] geopolitical side of it. [3:34] But this is spinning geopolitically, not militarily, geopolitically, spinning out of control. [3:41] So it seems to me both sides need to figure out how to come together. [3:45] This is not wishful thinking. [3:46] America can't stand to fail. [3:48] America can't stand to lose. [3:49] We've got to figure out how this is a victory for America. [3:53] But right now, there are two very different wars going on, the military and the geopolitical. [3:58] David. [3:59] So I think that that puts it well. [4:01] I hope in the coming week, weeks, America's allies, you can still say that around the [4:10] world, will realize that they have a lot at stake here. [4:14] I mean, the consequences for the world economy are growing, you know, a month or two from [4:18] now, we're going to be really suffering. [4:20] And vice by we, I mean, Europe, China, Japan, as much as the United States, maybe more so [4:27] they have an interest in. [4:29] In seeing what ways there are to deescalate this conflict, to put pressure on Iran, to [4:36] as much as they may resent Trump's having gotten this war going, they that doesn't mean [4:42] that they don't have some selfish interest in finding a way to end it is right now. [4:48] The diplomatic options aren't good from what I hear, but they could get a lot better. [4:53] All right. [4:55] Let's bring everyone up today on the very latest fighting continues throughout the Middle [4:59] East this morning. [5:00] Now. [5:01] More than one month into the war with Iran, Pakistan says it prepared to host talks between [5:06] the U.S. and Iran in the coming days. [5:09] But the warring parties did not confirm any participation, and the two sides appear to [5:16] remain far apart. [5:17] Speaking to reporters last night on board Air Force One, President Trump said Iran has [5:22] agreed to most of the 15 point list of demands for the U.S. to end the conflict without providing [5:29] details. [5:29] Iran's state run media has reported that Tehran had rejected the ceasefire proposal. [5:35] Trump also said Iran agreed to allow 20 more oil cargo ships to pass through the Strait [5:42] of Hormuz, the crucial shipping waterway, as oil prices continue to rise. [5:46] The president is framing that as a sign that negotiations are underway. [5:52] But Tehran is telling a different story. [5:55] The speaker of Iran's parliament accused the U.S. of putting on a front. [5:59] Of course, the U.S. is not the only one. [5:59] The U.S. is not the only one. [5:59] of diplomacy while, quote, secretly planning a ground invasion. [6:04] According to state media, he added that Iranian forces were, quote, waiting for the arrival [6:09] of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners [6:15] forever. [6:17] President Trump, however, continued to signal some optimism last night while insisting he [6:24] has already achieved regime change in Iran. [6:26] I think we'll make a deal with them, I'm pretty sure. [6:31] But it's fine. [6:32] It's possible we won't. [6:33] But we've had regime change, if you look already, because one regime was decimated, destroyed. [6:41] They're all dead. [6:41] The next regime is mostly dead. [6:45] And the third regime, we're dealing with different people than anybody's dealt with before. [6:49] It's a whole different group of people. [6:52] So I would consider that regime change. [6:54] And frankly, they've been very reasonable. [6:57] So I think we've had regime change. [6:59] Sir, could you foresee a deal in Iran this upcoming week? [7:02] I do see a deal in Iran. [7:04] Could be soon. [7:07] David, so it's really hard to figure out exactly what is going on behind the scenes, because [7:12] we heard of the negotiations that were going on, and we're going to get an answer the following [7:19] Wednesday, of course, on the Friday before the attack was launched that night. [7:24] So Iran, looking at what's happened in the past, could very well come to the conclusion [7:31] these talks and negotiations are just setting us up for a war. [7:35] I'm just curious, number one, on the regime change that the president talks about, every [7:41] report I've read suggests that the, quote, new regime is even more battle-hardened, more [7:47] battle-tested, angrier, and more radical of members of the Revolutionary Guard, number [7:52] one. [7:53] And number two, on negotiations, again, we're seeing through a glass darkly, looking through [8:01] a glass darkly. [8:03] What reporting can you give us on the negotiations? [8:05] Is there any reason to hope, or is the president just trying to calm the markets? [8:10] So the reason to hope is that there's a lot of effort being put in by U.S. allies, led [8:15] at this point by Pakistan, but aided by Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. [8:20] They met yesterday in Pakistan, and they're trying to set a framework in which you could [8:28] begin negotiations. [8:28] The problem is the situation in Iran is still very unclear, just who's leading the country. [8:35] I'm told. [8:36] I'm told that their principal intermediary, not surprisingly, is the foreign minister, [8:40] Aragchi, a very experienced negotiator, a professional, as President Trump said. [8:45] But that's not the same as dealing with an IRGC-led regime. [8:50] And so I think there's a lot of uncertainty. [8:52] Who is the United States dealing with? [8:54] What's the nature of this negotiation? [8:56] So I think the president's a little bit premature. [9:00] Again, my sense is that the U.S. is building more and more options militarily. [9:04] And that waiting for those to ripen, not taking rash action, don't jump into Karg Island, [9:12] makes sense for the White House. [9:14] And I think, as I read between the lines, I think that's where they're going. [9:18] These diplomatic options may increase as other countries lean hard into trying to get cooperation [9:26] from Pakistan, from Iran. [9:30] We may end up with a different situation in a few days. [9:33] But right now, Joe, I think the president... [9:34] The White House had floated that the parliament speaker there may be the person who could lead the Iranian side of these negotiations [9:44] while, reportedly, the Israeli military killed him over the weekend. [9:49] We are seeing the president of the United States here talk about seizing the oil, [9:54] which is something that is striking. [9:56] I wrote a few weeks ago how that was not being publicly discussed. [9:59] Now, though, that seems to be part of the U.S. options. [10:05] And he told... [10:05] The president told the Financial Times last night that an invasion of Karg Island is possible. [10:10] And the Wall Street Journal has reporting on that today, as well as potentially ground forces heading into Iran [10:15] to try to secure their nuclear materials, which would be deeply risky and deeply dangerous, [10:20] and also take days or weeks. [10:22] We also have the Washington Post caddy saying that the DOD is preparing potentially for weeks of operations. [10:29] That would really escalate this, and I think would be politically very dangerous for Republicans, [10:34] and most of all, of course, dangerous for... [10:36] And lastly, I just think we have to be clear here. [10:39] The president of the United States has zero credibility in terms of how this war is going. [10:42] He's declared victory about two dozen times. [10:44] And he's shifting timetables, he's shifting goals. [10:48] And the Iranians seem to be realizing they might be able to wait him out. [10:52] And Trump caddy is saying so often about trying to sound optimistic for the markets. [10:57] The last handful of days, the markets seemingly haven't listened, [11:00] despite the good news coming out of Trump's mouth, like, oh, we're winding this down. [11:04] The price of oil only going up. [11:06] Yeah, the president keeps saying, and has done several times over the course of the last few days, [11:10] we've won, putting that in the past tense, and that there has been regime change. [11:14] But as you pointed out, the markets don't seem to be buying that. [11:17] I spoke to an economist over the weekend who said to me, [11:20] traders aren't really buying the taco trade anymore. [11:22] They think this is an escalate-to-escalate situation. [11:25] They're looking at all of these American forces coming into the region. [11:29] And as the president said to Ed Luce at the Financial Times yesterday, [11:32] they're looking at the option of Karg Island. [11:33] I thought his interview with Ed was really interesting, [11:36] because it felt like he was softening people up [11:38] for the possibility of Karg being a possibility. [11:41] By saying it repeatedly in the course of that interview, [11:44] it sounded like he was talking to Americans and saying, [11:46] listen, now get ready for that. [11:49] And denying that that could pose any problem for America, [11:54] and then they could just take the oil, [11:55] and only stupid people in the United States didn't want him to take the oil. [11:59] But as we found, this is not Venezuela, and the regime has not changed. [12:03] Nobody else buys the idea. [12:06] Nobody else buys the idea. [12:06] Nobody else buys the idea. [12:06] The regime has changed just because the president and Caroline Levitt say [12:10] that we've got rid of the people at the top. [12:13] So I think David Ignatius is right. [12:15] At the moment, there are no very good options. [12:18] And the idea of escalating to de-escalate, [12:21] historically, when has that actually succeeded? [12:24] Traditionally, it's been escalate to escalate. [12:27] And I think that is what is unnerving financial markets at the moment. [12:29] It's why the oil price keeps rising, even though the president put this pause on. [12:34] And I'm... [12:35] I'm... [12:36] I've spoken to several people over the course of the weekend, [12:38] some more sympathetic to the president than others. [12:41] None of them seem to think that there are very good, clear options for America right now. [12:47] You know, Jonathan O'Meara talked about Corrig Island [12:49] and the possibility of seizing the oil there, [12:52] with the overwhelming majority. [12:54] Somebody's father at this table wanted to do this in 1979, [12:58] and it wasn't mine. [12:59] He was coaching Dixie League, Dixie Youth Baseball. [13:03] It may have been your father in 1979. [13:05] But here's what... [13:08] I've never been able to sort through. [13:10] The president of the United States has not been talking about getting Iran's oil. [13:14] And yet, if past his prologue, [13:17] everything he's ever said about George W. Bush's failures in Iraq [13:21] is that he didn't take the oil. [13:24] In Venezuela, he said, unlike George W. Bush, [13:26] he told me on a phone call, [13:28] I'm going to take the oil in Venezuela. [13:30] It would be shocking if that weren't on his dance card, [13:36] his strategic dance card here, [13:38] because if he didn't, [13:39] he wouldn't take the oil. [13:40] He would be doing exactly what he criticized George W. Bush for [13:43] for the past 23 years. [13:47] So, again, there hasn't been talk of it. [13:49] So whenever I hear that come up, [13:51] I'm like, okay, this is where we're going to end up. [13:55] It just tracks. [13:56] If it doesn't track, then past is not prologue, [13:59] and that's usually not the case with Donald Trump.