US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPY ETF — Price Projections & Multiple Time Frame Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: all right stock market we're going to look at vix and spy multiple time frame analysis i've already shown you the mcm earlier uh in the show so if you want to go back and watch the whole show if you didn't catch that uh then go back and you'll see the our algorithms work and are telling you about the conditions of the market truthfully the conditions of the market have been kind of odd because we've been in a rotational time frame right now and we've seen uh the market moving in both directions indexes with no continuity whatsoever and the breadth figures extremely strong throughout these days telling you that there are buyers still in the market and that's one of the the tip off to me that says that the bullish and bearish scenarios that i showed you last week is it's leaning to the bullish scenario i'm going to show you why but it might not be in the next few days it might be in a few weeks let's take a look here as we switch over from here and look at the vix so this is the vix and the point that i made in last week in our show was that we were in a time frame when implied volatilities were likely to go up that didn't mean now that meant if you look here at this weekly pattern and you could see the rhythm that's in here this cycle analysis go to the top of our website asklin.com go to workshops there's a free video on cycle analysis and uh if you want to invest in something that really helps you in the market sign up for that workshop so we're looking at in here as we see the reversal scout this is telling us momentum in implied volatilities is pointing to the upside that's what happens when you get into these rising phases now the that hasn't really been able to move up strongly yet and you see that happened here at the beginning of that cycle where it wasn't able to move up strongly either back over here this is in july uh and then finally in august september it spiked to the upside here you can see that the um we're doing something similar now when you switch over to the daily right over here this is what i was looking at last week and that uh my my sense was that the implied volatilities would come down that probably meant the market would try the upside until this cycle was complete and then we'll see implied volatilities moving to the upside again hence the market moving down this was an indicator to me that if the market tried to get up today i wanted to sell it um which certainly was the right thing to do and our day trader system kind of led the way on that uh to help me see when the market was failing at that point now what i got in here was that there was likely going to be if there were an upside move in the red in the market then we'd get into a period where the market had a further downside correction as implied volatilities went up this was one of the guides i was using for my own personal analysis and of course i share that with you because your success is our success so i just want to give as much of this to you as i possibly can so if i have this in my mind that implied volatilities are likely to go up very sharply somewhere out over here august september something like that maybe even sometime later in july then it says to me that the we're probably going to get some kind of a choppy period in here and you see this august 13 right over there that's where i'm wondering where the low and implied volatilities come so it's it's plus or minus so let's just say it's you know august 8th to august 20th somewhere right in there is where the next implied volatility or vix trough is likely to come that's lining up to me for a period where the stock market is likely to peak so i'm using this timing to help me in there so uh what i'm going to do now is i'm going to switch over and uh we're going to look at the s p 500 spy so spy let's look at the weekly chart and you can see on the bottom of course are our cycle brackets and that spy where you see three of these lines right over here that's where three of the cycles were coming down and it's where you get the biggest sell-offs and we actually have that same thing occurring in here in august september so when i did my analysis at the beginning of the year and i'm going to do a big picture analysis on the stock market for our level two through four members in the next week or so uh and i'll talk about this that this is a time period of risk right over here and then coming out over here into q4 is probably a better time for the stock market so we have to see how deep this you know pending correction is going to be now if you look here you could see that diamond that's getting built and this has been about nine eight nine weeks already where it's just chopping around and we're in this rotational market it's going nowhere the dow's making new highs the russell's making new highs but the nasdaq and the s p 500 which are heavily weighted in the techs they're not able to do so so this to me looks like a just continued narrowing right over here so where's it going to go i mean what is it what is a diamond the diamond is two triangles and this is uh two things fighting against each other now in the cycle analysis workshop i talk about how diamonds are formed and look at this you see this downward move right over here on the minor cycle and the upward move right over here so you would expect that you would see this downward move right over here and the upward move here why is this not going up strongly over here when this is in a time frame it should be really well it's because the downward forces are beginning to come in on these longer time frames the investors right in here the intermediate holders right in here they're starting to lighten up on stuff and this is the indication in there it doesn't matter if this tries to get up here and then fails it's going to be the same message now if it breaks down and continues down well then we'll know that the downward pressure from these longer time frames is really weighing on it and the downward turn right over there in the reversal scout is a message as that tells us that as it did right over here that those longer term holders are in a liquidation phase or they're lightening up or they're rotating whatever it is those big market leaders that move the market are not anymore and that's what we see so this is the weekly look at the spy let's take in here at the daily look at the spy and you could see that same triangle right there just move this aside so you can get a little better look of what's going on in here and so there's that diamond forming and here you could see the cyclical action that's in here these are very bullish cycles these are translating on the right side in other words the little corrections this was a rectangle correction this was a little flag correction why does that happen it happens because this corrective phase is meeting this powerful upward move and the upward momentum is so strong it doesn't allow corrections it didn't allow it here it told you the market's still going to go up it didn't allow it here it told you the market's still going to go up in this case it did allow the correction to come and then this next cycle right in here is forming you can see that so i told you on the vix that i thought well the vix was about to get a pop a short-term pop but this is a trans cycle is translating in a way that there's only maybe three four or five days left in here for this corrective period to come that aligns with the vix that i showed you of that pop that i expected and that's the reason between seeing the cosby turned down so sharply overnight and selling uh coming in where the nasdaq was so weak relative to the rest of the market today it had me selling nasdaq because that was my choice the one that was weak in a time frame when vix was likely to move up and the s p 500 or the whole market was likely to go into this corrective period for several days that's how i extrapolated from that that was all of the information now we have in here uh a mixed situation on momentum here whereas on the weekly we have negative momentum on the daily we have we'll just call it kind of neutral right there as you could see it turned blue right over here on the slim ribbon po you're actually negative right over here and then turn neutral here on the obi the option bias indicator so we're getting very neutral reads in here so last week i took this and extrapolated from it and i said there were two scenarios and the scenario was well it could go up before it goes down or it could go down before it goes down in other words both of those were uh scenarios that ended up uh looking at the corrective period that's due right out over here uh into this uh period in august or september the question is how was that going to form so let's take a look here and i'm going to bring up what i brought last week and last week we were right over here so we were trading down over here around 735 and if i bring up the those projections for the positive side right over here you can see well that's what it's doing right it's it moved up again and then left itself only a little bit of room on the downside and if this manages to hold above that low 722.59 it's going to set up the next move to a higher high and an all-time high in the market there's a trough in the vix right over here and then another one right out over there that's that august uh uh period right there that's comes let's just say somewhere between august uh 10th and 20th somewhere right over there and that might be where the market continues up and you could see this uh positive cycle forming another positive cycle forming and then moving down now there could be different variations of this it could be that this cycle right over here actually comes down harder and then it would look more like this where it rallied and then rallied up in there and then didn't make a new high so only this cycle here would make a new high there's variations that could occur in here the market's going to speak to us on this but this is acting like the more bullish scenario that i had discussed about last week with potential new highs in july a pension a new high here in early to mid august and then getting into that period right over here where the market then does move down in a significant way and uh with supports you know i wouldn't be surprised to see 680 on the downside that's not very far and it could be much deeper in here that's 616 that's 590 those are the major supports in there anything can happen here in this period where there's liquidation and multiple time frames so not really sure now that bearish scenario that i talked about last week the negative one is here so you can see it's come up right over here if the next several days took out this 722 59 that would raise the odds that we have seen the high already and that we would get a rally that didn't hold and you'd begin to move down and then the projected peaks in here are lower peaks as you can see right there and the vix is probably moving well into the 30s uh you know under this condition so you know essentially what i've showed you here is where we are right now which is right here which is in that diamond still and setting up what looks like the more positive scenario which looks like this right there but if it got down further or if one of these rally peaks failed and then started to break cycle lows then you would get into this more negative condition right over there the market has to tell us because right now we're not really sure we're in a diamond we're in a period where bulls and bears are fighting each other right here and the resolution of that will give us the information right now the formations say to me the more positive scenario is likely the momentum conditions tell me the more negative scenario is likely and maybe it's somewhere in between but i'm not going to make it up at this point you know right now i'm looking at whatever the shorter term trade possibilities that are inside of this as i talked to right in here because the bigger picture is not starting to form yet but i think that will and i think that what's going to happen is that eventually we're going to see somewhere in here if it makes a higher high it's not going to matter but then you get into this period over here where uh all uh three of these time frames are liquidating and that's what happens right over there just as happened back over here where all three were liquidating right over there or back uh even further where all three were in liquidation modes way back over here so that's uh this is 2023 in november where all three of them were together this over here is the tariff crash right over here tariffs were just an excuse for all three of these liquidation phases to line up together we call that uh synchronizing on the downside uh in that trough area and that's what's coming over here where all three of them are coming down and that is a technical reason to believe that there is a pretty good downside move now when i look at the bond market i talked about the bond market earlier on that there was a trade setting up the bond market often acts inverse at times when the stock market is moving sharply and uh because money is going to be flowing out of stocks into the bond market and that gives you a tip off into the direction and i think the bonds are going to move in the trade that is setting up do watch future speak you're going to see rv do a spectacular job showing you 24 different futures contracts uh and the indexes are in there and you'll be able to get a good sense for the vix also and that will uh give you you know kind of a tip off as he goes through those things as to um what the conditions are of all of these different futures and when he goes through the bond market you will see that setup [00:15:08] Speaker ?: that's where the bond market is going to be the bond market you're going to be able to get a little bit of the bond market you'll see that you're going to be able to get a little bit of the bond market you're going to be able to get a little bit of the bond market you're going to be able to get a little bit of the bond market you're going to be able to get a little bit of the bond market you're going to be able to get a little bit of the bond market