US Stock Market - S&P 500 RSP & Nasdaq NDX — Price Projections & Timing — Cycle & Chart Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: so this is the stock market analysis there's a warning from a key metric here institutional cash levels are at historic lows so yes people say sure slim we've already seen all of these metrics not work this is really an important metric as it's at a record low and this means that the institutions are fully invested they've spent all the money they could spend people if they you know get more money in of course they'll have more money to spend but the question is will investors be interested in putting money into stock indexes or into uh and more in money into investor uh into fund managers hands uh for them to then have more money to invest but they're you know really at historic low levels look now i'm going to show you a bearish scenario in the stock market and people say well the stock market just won't go down anymore there's just too much money flowing out there and there is no way that you can have any significant declines and of course we have ai this whole new paradigm going on where the valuations have shifted up to much higher levels and it makes sense to a lot of people it hasn't made that much sense to me being that i've seen markets for 52 years now and uh that uh all of the times that you've gotten the sentiment such that you know we're in a new paradigm well that gets proven wrong i'm going to show you this metric now and i think this is very important to consider this is uh source of this is bank of america global fund manager survey and this shows the cash levels as of july 2026 at 3.6 percent that's way way down over here at 3.6 percent now what you could see is that whenever it gets down close to this level of course these levels were just under four percent so this one's a little bit lower here whenever that happens then there's no more money from these institutions to really support these higher prices and then of course you get into the bear markets you could see they reflated their cash here to about five and a half percent to six seven percent almost six and a half percent here and this is during the uh 2008 bear market this is the uh euro crisis here this is the mini bear in 16 this is the bear market uh that came from the pandemic in 20. this is the bear market in 22. each of those times when it gets down over here there's nothing left to support the higher prices in the market other than whatever sentiment is left and then what happens is is that it's a natural technical occurrence that something happens in the markets the markets get shaken up a little bit and then people start to pull some money out institutions then have to sell because there's no money left for them to buy and then there's a technical retracement in the markets as they build cash that's very due in here and i've shown you analysis along the way that says that that's likely to happen starting now and then for the people that saw our long-term analysis i call for a bear market out into 2027. that's all about you know these adjustments and the type of market we're in right now the market doesn't want to move slowly i mean if it's going to move down it's going to move down quickly and so that means there'll be maybe some large declines uh you know a day here or a day there that makes up the decline that i think is coming for the stock market here into august september then i think we'll get a rally and then uh then again out into 2027 so we're going to take a look at these uh charts right now as we look over at the stock market now today's focus is on the s p 500 equal weight that's the rsp and i'll show you the nasdaq and the vix multiple time frame analysis you want to see all of our analysis and all of this stuff then you can get that on our charts if you're a level two three or four member or you can watch future speak on wednesday when arvey does a spectacular job of showing you all of this analysis on 24 different futures and etfs indexes so uh future speak on wednesday is how you see the next video with the full analysis on all of this today i bring you rsp nasdaq and vix let's start with rsp and this is really valuable information that you're looking at here of course this is the equal weight so all of the effect of the uh or excess effect of the mag 7 ai stocks that is in spx you don't see here or you see less of it in here here's the weekly pattern here and i'll maximize the cell and you can see in here the cycle analysis on the bottom are cycle brackets those are that's a drawing tool and it just helps us visualize uh how the money flows have formed in here and you're looking also at the uh 34 week moving average and you're looking at the reversal scout now the reversal scout is very helpful for momentum and understanding the conditions in the market generally as you see in here when this top came in uh october of 24 then the reversals got rolled over and it gave you two different legs down to this minor cycle and this minor cycle and when all three of them were coming down together that was a sign of danger you see all three coming down together here yes danger uh as it did right over here and yes that is right over here that means the uh the uh kind of intermediate term longer term and investor types holders now all get together and sell at the same time and when that happens you get real corrections and that's what we're coming to right now and that's why at the beginning of the year i warned that the biggest corrective period was likely to come into the uh august september period and when i say that it means a decline is likely to form and then a trough doesn't occur and i'll show you it's really late august to mid-september when i think that trough comes but in the media in the meantime you can see how this cycle action works the the minor the intermediate and the dominant forces and when all three are rising look what happens you see exploding to the upside and yeah you have another one of those out over here october november that probably means whatever decline we get in here is a buy and get more attempted moves on the upside then somewhere out over here that bigger one over there goes out to mid-2027 and that's where i think you get a real bear market but for now we're looking for a correction uh if you look at this you know come down over here which is uh that's uh 205 here on the rsp and you can convert that to the 38 percent uh on the spx 38.2 here's the halfway move in this i go from here to here so you know there is 2002 that's 14 points that would be you know like a 12 correction that would be very reasonable to happen now let's take a look here as we look at the a daily this is a great look at how to use multiple time frame analysis because while i tell you that this is still bullish and you look at the momentum here in the weekly we're starting to get a warning over here and i'll show you what that warning is first of all look back at 10 cycles in here and you could see the beautiful rhythms that are in the market for each of these cycles this is the key so you had three cycles moving up here and this was december of 25 this was into january of 26 this is into february uh of 26 and look at this cycle here you see that one went negative so it took a while for it to roll over the reversal scout went negative the slim ribbon went negative the slim ribbon po went negative all of that right in this cycle right over here and the next cycle was a big sell-off as you could see now here you could see four cycles in a row with positive uh configurations to them translation meaning how how far on the right on the right did the uh peak come and when you get the you had three out of four of them way on the right side that's very bullish and this one was kind of in the middle and that still had a higher low now look what happened you made the low here and you just slightly took the low out here this is the rebound here on friday as we see the s p 500 right now up about 44 points based on what i see here that rebound is not likely to hold up this is coming based on the rumors that pakistan is trying to get us and iran talking again i don't believe donald trump wants to talk at all let me say president trump and be properly respectful and uh that means that you know when there's a little bit of a denial that comes out you'll see the market moving down again and you could see that following the normal rhythms in here of money flows because this took out this low it's likely to go to a lower low out over here into early august this is a warning right over here you can see that look right over here the slim ribbon po each of these is a uh warning of an upside momentum resumption each of these go all the way back all the way here and this takes you out to back to april perfect information here from the slim ribbon po now this is a level four indicator it's important to become a a member of level four if you want to get this on the thinker swim charts now look what happened here it turned neutral for the first time uh all since all the way back in april and our option bias indicator is still staying positive but that probably will turn yellow pretty soon so this estimate there's a strong likelihood this is going to fail but i'm willing to look at all the scenarios in here of possibility right now we'll just call this a sideways cycle that just slightly broke the support and held and then had this rally so what if this was going to turn out to be a positive scenario and let's say that the weekly chart right over here which i'm expecting to roll over and have this you know somewhere this would be this would be 205 this would be only a four percent correction this would be uh of course uh deeper as you get down over a ten percent correction you know what if what if that didn't happen what if it was just a sideways move and it was the whole thing was a sideways correction and the environment was bullish and it doesn't matter that institutions have no money to spend left what if none of that matters and we're in the new paradigm that you know my experience just doesn't understand and can't accept well then you'd have kind of a bullish scenario and what would that look like so here's the positive scenario right over here let's say that it corrected out into mid-august right there and that would be you know this came down tested the low rallied again tested the lower a little bit lower and then you would have this rectangular sideways correction and then after that the market would then move to the upside as the dominant cycles began to push up that would be the positive scenario and i believe that to be a lower probability because of what i'm seeing in in the weakening in the market and the just the beginning of turning over you could see this is like a double top or didn't quite make it to that high and then rolled over so this is how tops are formed because the momentum begins to weaken the buyers have a harder time getting up to the other highs and then all of a sudden the sellers take over and they move down sharply going back and looking at this scenario right over here this is what i think is happening you know where you're making this top right in here and then this next rally will be very deficient that'll move down now if that were the case it would look like the negative scenario right over here and what that suggests is that the rally we're having now based on potential for talks to resume and oil today down four dollars after it was up you know let's say that fails and there's no talking and we go to a not only a 13th day of bombing which we did last night but they just keep it going then oil will fall again the bond market will fall again the bonds are rebounding a little bit right now and then you get into this more negative scenario so remember that we think the market is going to decline into late august to mid-september so this next cycle over here which has a trough ideal trough in the third week of september could actually see another one of these cycles that tries to rally and moves down again now for this to be proven you would have to then get you know our indicators turning red this uh this would go down like it is over here where it's red during that time when that marker was falling and you would see the slim ribbon po turn negative you see the slimmer ribbon right over here which turned neutral and the reversal scout which now turn negative these are indications right over here based on timing that this rally will fail the market will move down again pretty sharply and then we're looking at here around 205 uh 201 just under 202 uh the potential for uh down around 198 these are not big corrections in here and they could even be worse than that but we're just going to look for you know you know being conservative in this call i very rarely would ever use a word crash i don't you know i never predict crashes you know i i say the word crash in hindsight uh i say correction and it could be a steep correction and if the market gave up 10 right now uh which would be taking it down to you know like 195 somewhere down over here that would be pretty painful well investors would feel that it could you know like i'm saying it could be worse out into late august or mid-september that's based on this scenario of this weekly turning over getting into this corrective period setting up this more negative scenario right there so that's a look at the s p 500 on the equal weight which is i think a good way to look at it and doing some teaching around cycle analysis and this uh this neutral to negative cycle right over here is a warning on the daily chart that the weekly chart is going to turn over and you're going to start to see negative momentum so this is the early warning right now that i see in the rsp now when i look at the nasdaq it gave a much bigger warning and it did it a you know a long time ago so you'll see the difference in here as we look at the weekly and you can see where all three of those cycles are coming down and this sharp downward turn in a reversal scout well that warned to you that there was more declines coming and this is the projection here this is uh 27 750 down to 26 850 uh and that's you know that would be 19 or 1800 points on the downside from here uh and that would still be a very minor correction and it could be a lot worse than this during this period into this late august to early september period then you get out over here so that means that those of you people that believe that ai is going to be a buy stuff is worth buying it would be late august to mid-september the time to me the right time to be doing that because i do believe the market will recover in the fourth quarter after having some kind of a painful correction right now when i look at the daily you can see what happened in here is that this cycle which bottomed right over here came down and still was positively configured but didn't make the new high that cycle low came right on time so see that cycle low that cycle low that one this is how you use cycle analysis for great information but look what happened here it broke that key level of 28 814 on that cycle trough rallied failed hit resistance and broke the low this is a real solid warning for the stock market so if you believe there's merit in the fact that institutions are very low in cash they've spent a lot of their money in this sector into the nasdaq and that we have this negative translation the negative slim ribbon right over here the negative slim ribbon po giving you the warnings right over there and the option bias indicator way over here on uh july uh 13th telling you begin to put your option bias positions bias to the short side all of that spectacular information and this points again to that august period right over here so we're likely to see the rally that we're having right now today fail on friday and then next week be moving to the downside again so that's a look at the short term right over there that's a look at the uh intermediate term on the weekly and uh looking at this this is a strong downward force from the weekly that is affecting this daily dominant force here on the weekly affecting this daily causes a negatively configured cycle which then confirms this negative condition in the weekly and then suggests that there is a decline that is likely to come out which sinks somewhere at the end of august and a potential that it goes out further out into the uh third week of september uh because we don't really know because of the time variances right over here so this is pointing to september early september right over here if it got out over here it wouldn't be any kind of a violation on the weekly chart and that is a strong indication that says market uh the stock market will try to will try to really there will be attempted bounces you will see stocks try to get to the upside uh maybe significantly uh and but in these bounces but it's very unlikely based on these probabilities that i see that this will hold up so the negative scenario to me a higher probability now let's take a look at the vix vix and this is a great way to get timing on the market because the vix doesn't uh get much off of the inverse correlations we see on the index cycles and right now you could see that right in here is we were looking for a bottom now tickled that out over here but that doesn't really matter and we're been in this period where implied volatilities could rise they haven't really gotten to a panic stage i would be pretty surprised if somewhere out into this august period we didn't see it move up even higher than that maybe into the high 20s or into the 30s right over there for this weekly pattern before we got into that period where the sell-off was over with and this started to move to the downside here you could see how this translates over to the daily as you got into this recycle that was kind of neutral right over here and you see that one right over here so this is how it translated on the weekly where the bottom was due right in here and then you got into this choppy period here's how it translated onto the daily and then into here where it began the rise again you see right here so you get this move down in applied volatilities today because of this uh hope that the uh bombing will end and then for therefore vix coming down in here but i don't think it's likely that we're going to see this scenario hold up and i think we're going to see implied volatilities moving up again into next week because remember we look for this particular cycle in the uh or declining phase in the markets to continue out into early august so that's why i have this projecting over here into early august it just says to me that the rally we're having right now uh s p's up 50 nasdaq was down 350 it's now unchanged on the day so we're getting this rebound on hope and i just don't think that they're going to be right on that so that is a look at the rsp ndx and vix multiple time frame the warning that we saw based on uh fund manager uh you know institutional uh cash positions which is historically low and the need that they're going to have to raise capital and of course if they get into that phase stocks will fall that is my analysis for today i hope you loved everything we had in here uh make sure you watch the special that uh katie did on xle make sure you watch my special on the gold market all of that earlier in the show get acquainted with us go to ask them.com sign up for snapshot light that's free information on the s p 500 every day mailed to you on youtube and subscribe to our channel click the notification bell and like this video give it a thumbs up and on x follow me at ask slim any questions you have write to matt at ask slim.com