US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX — Price Projections & Cycle Timing

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: okay so this is the asylum stock market outlook for friday july 31st 2026 and here is our weekly cycle analysis chart for the s&p 500 spx and we are still sitting inside of this larger trading range that we have been in for a while for the past several weeks uh in these both friday and then wednesday videos that i do i have been honing in on the fact that we are really staying in range we had brief moments where we moved out of range but if you go under the hood and look at the sectors it was far more rotational in nature versus anything more significant and i think that's a really important thing to observe right because when the market is actually going to move in a meaningful way directionally you would see the sectors also align right and what has been happening throughout this whole time period here is just individual sectors on the downside meaning down issues right we it just really has not been happening we've only been seeing weakening breath not anything more significant than that so this is i think uh something that we have to observe and uh actually call out here in terms of the overall timing 8 3 to about 9 14 is when that low is due you know we are still sitting inside on a closing basis inside of that larger diamond that slim has highlighted here there is a 23.6 fib which we held actually perfectly at right around 73 12 in the s p 500 and the rs has been red but it has not obviously seen any meaningful selling that has been all that lasting at least yet in terms of our areas underneath that we have a 38.2 fib at about 71 29 and on the upside we have two areas here 76 31 up to 7800 or so short term okay so we have the same spy uh and qqq uh here in blue and we have the iwms uh in green and you can see that there was a load that was due in the spy and the qqq cycle 728 to about 86 we sold off uh obviously into that fomc day and then stopped on a dime and are sitting here okay so we are still firmly inside of that trading range this is a lower low versus that low but again look at the overall condition of that slim ribbon it is very flat we are not really in parallel on the downside like you were here right you are overall flat that is showing you what that core bias is right now in the market it is very neutral uh for the spx again 728 to 85 is when that low was due we did sell off right into that and are now holding on the upside we have this old high here at 75 81 on the downside we have two areas 72 90 to around 72 36 until you lose those on a closing basis there really isn't anything happening to the downside in the market right and i think that's okay to also surface right when there isn't anything happening you have to surface that when there is you also need you know obviously have to surface that but there are times like where we are now where in terms of the overall index you're in a really choppy environment now that said there have been a ton of shorter time frame opportunities in individual sectors and obviously intraday has been uh pretty incredible when this range does eventually resolve either higher or lower you know that's it that will very likely create a directional opportunity but we have to to surface when there isn't much happening on a again multi-week basis right like like like right now there isn't anything really happening yet you need to see sectors align you need to see the rut also align right and it's a lot of pushing and pulling going on in the market even in our stock sectors video that i just did you could see there were some things up some things down right so there's there's a lot of that going on in the market so it's really important uh if you are going to be focusing on the indexes uh ensure that it is in alignment with your overall style if if you're looking at trends well of late there have been trends down uh in the ndx right which obviously recently came into a short-term low but there were opportunities in the ndx while the spx was not really doing anything on a shorter time frame basis so these are things that you have to always surface right ensure that the underlying that you are honing in on and interested in actually trading is in fact meeting your core criteria that is truly foundational to your strategy right so that's something we need to always be looking at if we're finding ourselves in a trading rut try to figure out why try to figure out what you can do to improve for that next cycle okay so that's where we are right now uh in the s p 500 and we'd ask everybody to take a look at our day trader service special offer again final weekend here it's two months of day trader and you get one for free only 89.90 stay in those moves for a longer time period avoid fading trends understanding environment those are key tenants that the day trader service was really built on and if you really internalize that focus on that spend time understanding the service you know we think you will find a ton of value there if you are 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