US Stock Market SPX Multiple Time Frame Analysis — Price Projections & Cycle Timing

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: all right this is the analysis on the stock market i'm going to show you multiple time frame analysis and projections uh and we're going to also look at something a little different and that is what i'm calling right now a market compass this is kind of a prototype and i want you to really get an idea of the condition of the market at a glance just looking at a graphic that gives you a lot of information then i will also look at the market condition monitor i think it's a great way to understand how we put all of this together and the graphic i'm showing you now is really very related to the mcm so i'm going to show you that in one second but before we do that here is the market brief stocks for the week well they drop in the expected june swoon and then rebound that on the iran news of a pending deal ai and tech stocks well the second week lower that they've had and they led the nasdaq correction inflation was hot cpi was up 4.2 percent year over year and the ppi up six and a half percent year over year um the core of course was better because they exclude food and energy and of course none of us eat none of us drive our cars so that's why they exclude it ridiculous right 63 months of inflation over two percent the fed is supposed to be controlling that of course powell was the fed head and uh you can see looking at that well you got to wonder about the job he did well kevin warsch comes on takes over the fed uh next week is his first fed meeting and the presser so we're all we're all looking forward to seeing that and the iran war heats up and then cools off do we have deal or no deal well iran leaders and trump are already sparring about the deal that supposedly they were ready to sign so we don't really know what's really true about that but the stock market certainly reacted in a very strong way uh and uh thursday as we saw that announcement come out and all of a sudden s&ps went from a little bit up to up 100 uh and it was just an amazing upside move of course part of that was around spacex ipo which is coming out today it has not started trading yet as i'm doing this recording around noon eastern time the uh the spx c spc x sorry the symbol uh is uh coming out at 135 but as i see indications now it's looking like around 170 that's a two trillion dollar valuation and that's on less than 20 billion in sales so that's a hundred x uh time sales we've never seen anything like that it is just amazingly priced of course they're pricing in years and years of earnings down the road and this is you know they have a lot of companies within spacex uh and uh the xai which is the ai portion of it loses more money than all of the other ones do so they've lost money for the last couple of years significantly four or five billion dollars and uh right now the question is will they really earn money well the street is pricing in massive revenues and massive earnings going forward of course yesterday's big rally that we saw uh in the stock market was about investors were selling thinking that when this news comes out about spacex that there would be a lot of liquidation going on so that investors would have the money to pay this ridiculous price for spacex and then of course that left people short and then when that news came out they scrambled i actually think that that's pretty typical of a market that is not quite ready to add to stop going down but we'll look at the charts for the week indexes mixed uh really is the s p 500 small loss to a small gain uh including the dow jones industrial average at the nasdaq up right around one percent and the russell up about three percent yes they are coming for the small caps right now uh and try to explain that because there is just uh uh the earnings the real earnings and the russell are just uh amazingly small and maybe actually negative so uh of course the russell's pricing because they hide the fact that uh the earnings that the whole 2000 have are overall negative and they only count the ones that are positive which is ridiculous so that's it uh that we saw uh for the week so far and i expect that we're going to see a lot of action around this uh spacex uh when that starts trading this is something new i'm going to show you it's a visual of market conditions for various styles i'm calling it the market compass this is really a prototype of some things that we're going to be bringing forward in the future and i wanted to bring that now because it gives you a good way to tell if you are a student of our work the condition of the market and the location of the market based on the cyclical patterns that we look at this is for position traders swing traders option traders it's all here what does this tell me well this tells me you're looking at this solid um channel than here that's green is that basically it's pretty neutral for the position trader investor but there is a positive bias to it and that's why it's green like that this gives you the shorter term to intermediate term cyclical pattern right in there and it's blue so it's kind of neutral and here's that short-term neutral indicator right there or the intraday that says to you the condition is neutral but it's showing you that we're getting into the bottoming phase right over here and in the market looking at that it just tells you everything about the analysis i'm going to show you right now i'm going to show you the analysis that supports this but basically it says longer to intermediate term positive bias the intermediate to shorter term is in a neutral condition right now and bottoming and the inner interday right there which is blue it would be green if it was positive it would be red it was negative is also in a neutral condition so i thought that was important to show to you and now i'm going to give you the information that backs that up let's take a look here as we look at the charts i'm going to move this vix chart out of here and then we're going to look at the charts on the s p 500 so switch this over to spx now this is a little different view than you have seen before because what i'm showing you is not only the charts right over here that i work on but also the market condition monitor so what i'm going to do here is remove this and show you the symbols that are in here on the stock market and we'll just redo this right over here and there you see the stock market right there so i'm just going to scroll this a little bit so that you can see all of these so we'll take a look at the s p 500 and i want you to note over here the conditions right there uh that are set up for the uh intraday just get this so we can see this so that's near term let's start out with the intermediate term and you'll see that is the uh conditions are neutral so like i said to you when i showed you that graphic for the longer term uh intermediate term position trader the conditions are neutral and i'll show you why that's the case first of all looking here at the cycle patterns you can see in here that there's an upward bias in other words momentum is positive but when i look here at the daily chart right over here the formation over here in the daily chart is negative so it got below this low so that puts me into a more neutral condition for the moment when i look for the longer term momentum strong and that says there's pretty likely to be an attempted upward movement in here that takes out that high and you can see that this uh upward arrow there is pointing to the likelihood that the market will try the upside again now when i look over here at the short term right over here that says to me that the short term pattern is suggestive of a bottoming process right in here and that that's what i showed you on the graphic the bottoming process that we're getting to we just don't have a good sense yet whether that bottom is made though it is due and we certainly could get another pullback and test this low about 24 50 or so before it then tries to move to the upside so the cyclical patterns we saw in here were positive and positive and right over here and i had mentioned if it got below that 73 33 that was going to start to give me some warning and that would mean it's probably going to be harder to get much on the upside we could get a test up here at that 76 20 just like i said here on the weekly chart but that may be the best that it can do just getting up to that level or a little bit higher so when i look here at the the shorter term pattern in right there i can see that those are giving me also neutral readings right over here so everything i'm looking at is neutral when it comes to market conditions and when i look at the cycle conditions we have potential for a little bottom being made right in there in the minor cycle but then we have this negative shape on the daily chart all of that is pointing to neutral conditions if you look at the beginning of the show where i did analysis on the vix that also is giving you a sign or giving me a sign that the market is just not going to have that much of an easy time going to the upside it's probably going to be pretty choppy in here as the market looks at this spacex ipo looks at the fact that that probably is going to drain some funds from other parts of the market but then also looks at the pricing and says well that gives credibility to the higher valuations that we've seen here in the market but again we're looking here at the short-term conditions in the market all neutral the intermediate conditions at also neutral when i look right over here and then when i look at the near term right there it will be those interday patterns and they're giving us indications that the market is starting to turn more bullish here uh when you look at the s p 500 they've all clicked up here to bullish for the short term and that i'm sorry intermediate term intraday term and that is likely to be the beginning of the bottoming process right over there so sometimes these uh the language gets me a little bit uh messed up but you get really the idea so there's your uh intermediate upside movement in there and probably going to test those highs this is your short term in a bottoming phase right over here and here's your upward move setting up in the russell which we're seeing starting already and uh this is the s p 500 and the nasdaq there and they are in this bottoming phase and now when i look here this is a great way to get a good indication of the market there's that market compass right over there but when i go over here uh to the default this is really what's really important and that is i want you to see if you were a short-term trader and you wanted to bias your positions or your option positions when the two hour chart is in a positive configuration you don't want to be on the short side of that that's long side trades only long side trades only long side trades only you can see that that really kept you on the right side of the market here and i'm looking back here to the end of march so we're looking all through april all through may really kept you on the right side of the market here's where it turned short right over there and said short sides only and that actually has ended as of today uh so the short side of that uh market really is not the correct side anymore and again we're neutral we have not established that we're on the long side yet but i thought that was really important to show to you because this is how short-term traders can do really well by understanding how to bias their positions in a particular direction in this case right now it's neutral it's amazing as we look at all of these charts right over here that and we look at everything on the different time frames in here that overall everything is really neutral we really need to let the market start talking to us to really get a good sense for this let's just take a moment and look at the conditions in the market overall in some of these individual stocks so i'm going to go over here i'm going to put this on the short term right there and now i'm going to scroll in here for you to see which of the positive stocks or negative stocks so i'm going to click on trade setup condition and these are the ones right now that are very bullish you can see that right in there the ones that are very bullish so there's a lot of stocks that are setting up lightly nicely uh to be bullish and uh now we'll take a look at the ones that are very bearish and we'll take a look right in here at the ones that are very bearish and you can see right there lots of stocks uh setting up to be quite bearish uh and that's gives you a good idea of how to use this platform the market condition monitor just it's for level three and four and uh i think that uh if you really want to get a good sense how to put all of the things together that we look at it's uh really you get help from this mcm the market condition monitor so do uh either take advantage of our level to which doesn't include this if you're just getting started or write to matt at aslim.com if you're brand new and he'll give you a special for level three or four if that's what you're interested in so again let's take a quick look at this we have a weekly pattern positive right over there the cycle pattern is positive but that's uh giving us a little different look in here when we look at the daily chart which has a negative configuration and uh we have a situation of it being neutral uh momentum conditions more on the neutral side and the intraday right over there those short side trades now ended and much more looking for the market to speak to us and tell us about the market conditions that is all represented right there on the market compass which shows us pretty much overall neutral conditions and we need to let the market speak to us as it gets past the spacex ipo and uh starts to make what i think is a bottom in here uh for the market to try moving to the upside and what probably is going to be a very choppy market condition moving forward i actually think looking at that vix pattern that i talked about earlier in the show and that it's really in the second week of its rising phase that we're in for a much choppier market condition and getting to the upside is going to probably not look anything like that previous rally where they were buying them every day i just think it's going to be two side of trade and probably a much better traders market all right if you're new get acquainted sign up for snapshot light uh get that for free every day you'll get our s p 500 analysis uh go to the top of our page to free stuff free stuff and sign up for that no credit card necessary if you're on youtube subscribe to our channel click the notification bell and like this video give it a thumbs up on x follow us at ask slim any questions you have write to matt at ask slim.com [00:17:32] Speaker ?: Thank you.