US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX — Price Projections & Chart Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Obviously, we have seen selling that has now come into the tech-oriented aspects of the market, but we need to now observe what's happening in the S&P 500, which is obviously more tech cap-weighted, but you'll see it hasn't quite had a breakdown just yet, so that's something that we need to observe closely here, and let's go ahead and hop right into those charts for you. Okay, so this is our weekly and daily cycle analysis for the S&P 500. Let's go ahead and pull up the weekly chart, and what you'll see here on the S&P 500 is a longer dominant 36-bar and this 24-bar cycle, which is then broken up into minor 12-bar cycles, okay? So we are still in that larger diamond that we were in last week, so not much has changed yet in the S&P 500. One thing to be aware of is that the RS has been holding red during this whole process, so are we going to see another leg higher, or is this in fact going to turn its way back to the downside as we are seeing as of now in the NDX? 83 to around 921 is when that low is due, so we are still watching that closely in terms of our areas down, 73.12 to around 71.25 are our closest levels down, and on the upside, 77.95 on the upside. Jump over to the short term. So you can see that we have that RUT trough that was due right about now. So we're seeing a move down into that low. This is very similar to what we were really highlighting last week, where we wouldn't really get anywhere here short term. And that is really what has happened in the S&Ps. We're just really holding sideways right now. We have our low at 74.21. Again, that low needs to be lost. You need to see the trend turned down. You need to see the RS turned down. Again, keep in mind the indicators give you that bias. That's the really important thing. You need a clear and objective way to evaluate bias, and we use indicators for that. So right now, it is still just minorly positive in the very short term. You have not had either a cycle breakdown or a shift in the indicators. So you're still holding sideways right now, but it is clearly getting a little bit weaker, right? So that's just something to be aware of. We have to watch to see what kind of move up we get. But again, if we lose right around 74.21, then we have a low that is due 7.28 to right around 8.6. You will really note if you watched our earlier segment on the semis, that's very much in line with many semis as well. Right around the end of July, early part of August for an important low that is likely due to form. So the overall setup here is if we lose that low, again, always a series of if-thens. If we lose that low and we start to trade back down here, we'd be looking for this to then rotate its way back down, likely back to right around that low at 72.37-ish, okay? But that's only if we can actually get a confirmed breakdown. Absent of that, we're just holding sideways, right? Trading range or trend. You're clearly still in a trading range in the SPX, albeit with more and more weakening happening under the hood, okay? So that's a look at where we are right now in the S&P 500. And as always, please note, you know, this is a video that is one moment in time, right? I really want everyone to truly internalize that every new bar of information on whatever time frame you're looking at will allow you and give you the opportunity to reassess odds, right? Trading is all about odds, thinking about odds, understanding when you have higher odds of something versus when you have lower odds of something. And then once you are able to set up probabilities associated with specific outcomes, that's how you can really build a real process. And that's what, you know, that's what this is all about. It isn't about saying, well, this is what I think is going to happen. That doesn't matter. What matters is creating a systematic process by which you analyze the market. That is what I'm hoping that everyone is really internalizing and really focusing on. Not what is said, but the why. That's what I think trading is really all about. [00:05:18] Speaker ?: That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important. That's what I think trading is really important.