Sunday Market Future Show

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: good evening ladies and gentlemen thank you for being here sol how are you in the streets what's going on cliff how are you melanie's here jared's here star is here excuse me miss law fi how are you pars of all venom thank you everybody really appreciate it well going into an interesting week and then we get nvidia but before nvidia we get retail earnings home depot target walmart they are all reporting this week and it creates a concentrated test of consumer demand across home improvement discretionary retail in everyday necessities i think their earnings are going to be good just like everything else that we have seen just like everything else but we gotta get through that home depot tuesday target on wednesday walmart on thursday this is a big week in its own sense may not be tech but it's three companies the american economy is judged on we had july inflation flat month over month but annual inflation remains above the fed's goal we get the fed minutes this week and i want to see what they say i'm trying to figure out what jackson hole is going to be like i am still on the fence still on the fence ed monies thank you so much really appreciate it yes broadcom is important the hack is important we just don't have enough information right now i don't want to jump to conclusions that's why i'm not really talking about it i want to see what information comes out tomorrow vmware had some issues there was a critical patch so let's wait until what we get tomorrow coming out of that the labor market is cooling while wage growth remains positive the july payroll employment 158.85 million with a bls series showing 0.01 monthly decline still oil is above 80 right now and it does not look we have like we're gonna have a ceasefire at all we'll see we will see now one of the big stories i'm not sure if anybody saw this weekend okay alibaba says it's open weight ai models surpassed 3 billion downloads in six months and that was reported on bloomberg and this matters because developer distribution can build an ecosystem around a model family even before even before the adoption is clearly monetized now alibaba yes i did not go to canada i had some obligations here and i just couldn't go i had every intention of going and i just couldn't go i will make it there next time so i have my own feelings on the chinese models for alibaba i think this is really good and we have to call a spade a spade china is the second biggest economy alibaba has four percent of the global cloud market and then the number one cloud provider in china the fact that they have open weight models with billions of downloads is extremely bullish for them now i don't think that they will be able to compete with anthropic and open ai but time will tell and the big risk downloads are not the same as active users paid workloads enterprise contracts or profitability and let's remember that let's remember that even if this outline is true 3 billion downloads that may not translate into dollars and cents we're gonna have to see out of other news stripe reportedly finalized an acquisition for open router for more than seven billion dollars absolutely incredible apple is reportedly discussing publisher deals for an improved ai powered siri this was out of the wall street journal this morning that apple is discussing new agreement with publishers to use their content for news and information in an improved ai powered siri content licensing could give apple more reliable and legally defensible sources for answers delivered through its assistant you guys see i'm going to see i'm still disappointed in siri we're going to have to see where that goes there is one company that i am probably going to get back into the more and more and more and more i look at uber and i've had a thesis on uber for a little bit i believe i wrote about uber i'm double checking right now i've written about uber twice the funny thing is i was bearish on uber back in 2022 now i turn bullish and i think the threat from robo taxes is very overblown and when we look at the numbers and i started looking at uber's numbers again i'm like man why why am i out i should get back in 14.2 billion in revenue for q2 12 percent year-over-year growth you have gross profit at 6.4 billion 44.9 percent margin operating margin 14.6 percent free cash flow 2.8 billion dollars when i look at uber i get excited i mean this is a company that's only 154 billion dollar market cap you're paying a very reasonable price at 20 times ebitda 22 times operating income 14.8 times price to cash from ops and then 15.3 times free cash flow on a ttm basis when i look at where uber is going according to the analyst community it is still expected to be a compounder i mean 3.28 in eps this year 4.62 next year there's 39 analysts that have 4.62 is the midpoint and then in 2028 25 analysts having it at 5.77 cents huge earnings compounder and we look at revenue growth double digit expected revenue growth this year next year with more than 30 analysts covering it in each year i'll tell you this i've said that they have a flywheel i've said that they have network effects i have said i think robo taxi is overestimated overestimated on the impacts of uber i have said that i will personally use uber because i would rather pay just a little bit more to have a vehicle here immediately and not waste my time because i value my time i will pay to get my time back now when i think about uber in a nutshell and all the different verticals they're in the amount of people that use the app and hotels everything else also the indirect uber eat theory i have about gta 6 come november which is i'll tell you three months away people are going to be using uber eats a lot more and this is a company that i think can do a lot better i don't know why uber's trading where it is it's down 17 on the year it's beating the market i think by just a little bit over the past five years what's spy at beating the market slightly over the past five years slightly i don't see how uber is not a bigger company and you know what i'm excited i'm gonna probably get back into it i've been buying next decade this week uber is probably the next large company i'm going to start adding and building a position and i feel really good about it i think the fundamentals have a disconnect we got five minutes until the futures open for retail we're going to check tip ranks together we're going to see where they got uber 104.39 is the midpoint 37.45 upside i don't recognize any of these analysts but a lot of them have much higher numbers i mean i think my thesis on uber is going to be just like my thesis on sass i think it's going to take some time to happen but i do believe uber will do well star thank you ed monies again thank you very much bio fraud appreciate it napal thank you so much and money's again being a superstar thank you so hopefully everybody had a good weekend i am all caught up on two tv shows lioness season three came out three weeks ago episode three dropped last night at midnight watched it this morning god tell you it's the best show on tv hands down best show on tv is lioness also i'm a little upset with amazon don't give me the first three episodes of reacher and then make me wait because i actually think from what i've seen so far this has the potential to be the best season of reacher that's been out i think it's got the potential this season is so good both shows are incredible now i made a promise to admit that i'm going to honor i'm going to give breaking bad another try even though i do not think it is a good show and i am in the minority i will uh definitely i'm going to give it another try we'll see i just right now lioness i'm on the kick it's so good thank you torch it is so incredible so incredible all right the moment we have all been waiting for is almost upon us we are about a minute 15 out how is this season of reacher woke this season of reacher is so not woke conservative millennial the wire oh my god the wire is uh i mean for me the wire is in my top 20 maybe even my top 15. it's that good hbo hats off arguably the best content studio out there for tv shows is hbo oh i'm with you mrs law fi i'm a big true blood fan big big big big big true blood fan i am oh we're open for business all right reddit made the s p 500 and it's keeping the pump it looks like it is keeping the pump nebius back to 280 oh man we're in for a treat we are back to 280 on the nebius sandis 1671 we got amd pumping 518 next decade i bought more on thursday or friday i don't remember which day next decade next decade is extremely interesting i like it here 718 vg 14 micron 983 smci 40 rocket lab look at that 81 41 for the space mob and we got energy transfer above 21 love it where where did my et go did et phone home see this is why we can't have nice things because things just move around too much like this when it's on percentage of change qualcomm 165 googly moogly 348 arm holdings back at 280 as ts 7168 netflix 78 39 bill ackman getting back in baby buffett is getting back in or i should say got back in core weave 106 congratulations everybody that's in it with me nvidia 225 40 i'm going to tell you i think this is super undervalued i am excited for earnings in eight trading days man it's going to be wild nvidia and broadcom gotta love it you have to love it apple 305 bloom energy where did my bloomy bloom go see once again it just moved somewhere i gotta look out like this i'm sorry we gotta change it up bloom 234 okay salesforce 196 that's another one not this wednesday but next wednesday benioff ai agents we're gonna see what happens what happens if we're gonna see what happens if we're gonna see what happens if we're gonna see what's going to do what happens if we're gonna see what happens if we're gonna see what happens if we're gonna see what's going to do what happens if we're gonna see what happens if we're gonna see what happens if we're gonna see what happens 990 microsoft 496 i was having a conversation my dad today about microsoft and i just microsoft and amazon alphabet three of the best companies ever created i think microsoft is a steal here service now 124 and a half oracle back above 150 palantir 174 52. qxo i have not finished going through the earnings i will be up to date tomorrow starby's 107 sofi 1835 tesla 343 we're spacex 140. what's everybody doing with spacex is the question what is everybody doing and then we got uber 76 72. look at verizon i wonder if chris patel has his spread still verizon 48 40. you know what the market is saying we are not scared of spacex 48 40. love it and then zeta 29 17. if you saw the video with nick i think you're gonna agree this is going over 30. i can't tell you when it's getting past 10 billion i'm super excited for zeta global i think they're gonna come with some fire to that event i'm with you we ain't scared of some guy named zitron we're not scared of bury at all at all at all amazon 264 now we'll go back to what's moving the most look at that bloom is up the most on a percentage basis now 235 san disc is up two percent intel back over 100 we're at 103 92. amd 520 uber's getting some love uber is getting some love you all you don't owe me any milk for zeta listen i only talk about when i make an individual video i talk about companies that i've done my research on and i truly believe it i do not talk about companies i do not research and zeta in my opinion is a big winner i think it's going to continue to be a big winner and i'm a big fan of david steinberg and what he has done with that company i really am now for the ai trade so a lot of reports this weekend one way a lot of reports another way and i'm going to tell you this so yes i've looked at galaxy digital um nick put me on it my mind's not made up but i'm interested i know it's made a big move so we'll see what happens but when it comes to the ai trade okay i do think that there's a large runway for memory and gpus the core weave conference call slayed the dragon the core weave conference call straight up said that they leased a100's 2020 technology out through 2029 at attractive prices they're getting a decade of revenues out of these gpus a decade that destroys the depreciation argument it is destroys the use for life life useful life argument i'll tell you i am extremely excited about what black leather jacket jensen has to say in a week and a half because now you are bringing in the big guns to make compute an asset class that's investable that you can lend against and they're looking for their spread you either believe ai is real or you believe we are in the biggest bubble now we may ultimately be in a bubble but that bubble may not pop for a decade or longer yes we're going to get sell-offs yes we're going to get bear markets but keep in mind keep in mind the bears continue to move the goalposts that's the problem they continue to move the goalposts you can't have it both ways cannot have it both ways first there was no use case then there was no revenue then there was no this there was no that it's all bullshit and the market is speaking to us i'm a little surprised the googly moogly is under where berkshire did their deal i am very surprised i happen to think alphabet aka google is one of the ultimate companies and ultimate compounders i'm fine with there being a lot of bears my problem is they are intellectually unethical that's my problem because they're not bearish based on data they're bearish based on opinion that's the problem i have with it they're not looking at the numbers when we as a group in a community look at the numbers i think we can all agree that what we saw in q1 and q2 from the hyperscalers proved ai is very real it proved major corporations are using it when you look at what jamie diamond said on the q2 earnings call it proves ai is very real when you look at what core we've said on the earnings call it proves they're able to generate capital for years and years and years beyond the bear case so i just think if you're going to make a bear case have it developed with facts not opinions and i do respect that burry is putting up his own money to short things i respect that but at this point i think that he is trying to sell subscriptions and doing this all for publicity when i look at this market when i look at this market i am so excited for the future i really am these companies micron and taiwan semi taiwan semi if we go back and look at that earnings report i think they raise their capex spend by about 15 billion dollars or so i don't remember the exact number i think it was 15 billion or so and you know what taiwan semi is not spending 15 billion on more manufacturing foundries unless there's a very large rate of return and a long runway because they could keep them they keep supply where it is they don't have to do this but there's so much money that they see that they're going to make same on micron micron doesn't have to build more they don't have to increase the capex but they are i don't know how we can say that this is not an ai boom that is healthy and going to keep going and then if we believe andrew jassy that amazon aws is going to become a trillion dollar revenue run rate business at some point there's a lot of upside potential there a lot of upside potential and sandiskies are lipping 1685 intel being over 100 i really like it thank you sebbs adding to the replace the bell with the gong fund i appreciate it thank you type thank you silly thank you so much and sp thank you very much i truly appreciate it here's my thesis on zeta for those of you asking if you should add i have no clue okay if we look at zeta and we look at the chart it's up a ton right now but keep in mind we're not at all-time highs zeta was a lot more at one point they got up to 37 or so back in 24. now did they deserve to get there questionable questionable questionable i like the chart i'm not a ta specialist but i think that zeta is an earnings compounder and i think they're at an inflection point on the numbers what i will tell you is i think zeta can become a 15 to 20 billion dollar company and they're at seven and a half billion now so while you're not getting the same deal that you got 16 if i am right on my thesis that would put zeta anywhere from 60 to 80 dollars a share in the future now i don't think it gets there for another three years but that's my own opinion and i really don't like giving price targets but when i run the math on the revenue the growth rates what other companies are trading for it's hard for me to believe that zeta won't become a 15 or 20 billion dollar company and keep in mind i'm not sitting here saying zeta is going to be a hundred billion dollar company i'm not sitting here saying it's going to 500 or a thousand i think when we look at companies and the market caps that they've attained zeta at 15 to 20 billion looks very realistic i think it looks very very realistic austin's right and the catalysts that are going to hit for zeta are going to be big especially with the palantir partnership they are going to be very big i disagree alex steve i'm a bull but nvidia might be priced for perfection the climb was huge and it's been stagnant for quite some time opportunity cost i agree on the opportunity cost i disagree that it's priced in for perfection i really disagree nvidia is cheap in every sense of the word and yes it's been stuck for a little bit okay so what it's consolidating that's okay we'll take consolidation when we look at nvidia this is a company that is extremely cheap and nobody can touch it you can't touch it when you look at the actual earnings 85 percent revenue increase year over year 81.6 billion of revenue gross profit 61.2 billion it's incredible they just did the biggest deal in financing with the biggest pe firms the demand for their chips is ongoing and when you look at the actual numbers that they're putting up it's hard for me to believe i've never seen anything like this in my life you look at this on a ttm bit let's start with quarterly you look at the revenue on a quarterly basis i've never seen anything like this in my life okay never never ever ever have i seen anything like i mean how many quarters is this one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen consecutive quarters of quarter over quarter growth that's massive massive i'm we're talking 19.8 percent quarter over quarter growth last quarter when they did 81.6 billion dollars and the next quarter from next week is probably gonna be up here where my mouse is never seen anything like it does not look like cisco it does not look like cisco at all people have been trying to say that it does not look like cisco by any means and if we go on a ttm basis and we layer in gross profit it's crazy what this company has accomplished absolutely crazy so i'm in it i have a large amount of my portfolio well it's now become my largest individual position it is past meta i actually checked today it's a good portion of my individual equity portfolio and i love this company what would get me to leave i'd have to be convinced that the forward growth is not really is not really going to pan out it doesn't look like cisco i don't know why he keeps saying that it does not look like cisco by any means the ai revolution is not stopping cisco did not have the hyperscalers shelling out hundreds of billions in capex so you're just misinformed so you're just misinformed and this is not the dot-com bubble you are just misinformed and the reality of the situation when you look at microsoft and we look at their ebitda on a ttm basis and no we'll do one better we're gonna we'll do cash mops and we'll do capex okay oh yeah it looks like cisco with microsoft spending 116 billion in capex and let's layer on everyone else once again we're even going to put meta in there we're going to put oracle in there we're going to put the googly moogly in there i forgot somebody didn't i microsoft amazon meta google oracle got everybody i want stack it up and this is what we got with these five companies you have 692 billion dollars of cash from operations being generated in the trailing 12 months and they've allocated 566 billion in capex it does not look like cisco because guess what five companies that were the heaviest deployers of capital into the ai revolution you didn't have five companies doing 692 billion in cash from operations in the dot-com era so i don't know what to tell you but go research what actually happened in the dot com era please i agree with what some of you guys are saying know who you are no bio fraud don't say that i did not know anything all i knew is i had a thesis back then and i was very bullish before i even met the guy austin is right it's manifested ptsd i don't believe look derek i don't believe that circular financing is happening a lot of people disagree with me on that but call spade to spade nvidia purchased equity from companies and when you purchase equity from companies so the the question was what are your thoughts on the circular financing with ai companies i don't believe that there are that there's circular financing with nvidia they got equity for their capital what those companies do with that capital is their business they decided to buy more chips to me that's not circular financing it is a one-for-one transaction in both scenarios nvidia takes an equity stake in core weave and they get equity to put on the balance sheet as a long-term investment they exchange cash in short-term investments for stock which goes on long-term investments that's a one-for-one transaction core weave now has coffers they could have went amd they could have went in the tpu route they decide to take that capital and buy gpus nvidia makes gpus nvidia now exchanged their gpus for core weave's capital it was not nvidia's capital because that capital was exchanged and i know this is a hard concept for a lot of people to understand it was exchange for equity it was both one-for-one deals incorrect incorrect incorrect what makes it circular is that amt they make isn't real money it's simply going from one company to the next not true once again if nvidia gave them a loan and did not get equity for it then it's circular financing but the fact that you can give cash for equity and swap them okay one for one and then company b gives cash for gpus and exchange them each transaction as a counterpart this was not a loan getting loaned around okay so it's not yes it's a lightsaber pen my nephew gave it to me it is not circular financing we're gonna have to agree to disagree because i will die on that hill thank you it's not circular it's just a headline that sells it's complicated but it's not circular i don't even think it's that complicated but maybe i'm just too simplistic maybe i'm just too simplistic let's look at where broadcom is where's broadcom all right 394 i am hoping that we get some real news for broadcom tomorrow i am very interested to see what happens with them how bad this exploit was oh boy are you guys in for a treat you guys are in for a treat the fact that we have somebody saying haha where's matt you ask he appears [00:41:10] Speaker 2: matt how are you steve i just got off the phone with the streaming police [00:41:19] Speaker 1: they're upset they're upset steve wait what the what place the streaming police [00:41:26] Speaker 2: what streaming place stream yard they just they just called me why did they call you they said that they're upset that steve is wearing a shirt on stream [00:41:38] Speaker 1: and then he needs to take it off well your computer froze oh your camera froze craig anderson thank you very much ignite thank you very much appreciate it dh thank you very much match using that aol connection [00:42:06] Speaker 2: all right let's try this again someone's got to keep verizon in business steve [00:42:13] Speaker 1: no hopefully you and then there was ray ray are you having any delicious treats tonight [00:42:23] Speaker 2: what did i miss steve is the market going to zero um i think you'd be happy if it went to zero [00:42:31] Speaker 1: why is that steve is you be buying more steve am i that easy to read [00:42:40] Speaker 2: yes okay yes i was listening to the best podcast in the world at the gym uh that's why my hair is still wet and i look like i just got out of the shower because i did i hope everyone now pictures me uh in the shower but um great episode steve as always thank you thank you i appreciate that i was waiting for you to break out in the song both in the stream as well as right now or uh the podcast as well as right now i appreciate it appreciate it no not happening all right i'm trying uh what are people saying in the [00:43:25] Speaker 1: chat steve a lot of things and sam's in the chat what's going on sam um so i'm bullish uber i think you knew that i really looked into a few things this weekend i can't find a bear case because i am relentless in the fact that we are not going to see disruption from robo taxis [00:43:51] Speaker 2: just because of the timing taking too long or what's what's the deal steve no i don't believe that [00:43:56] Speaker 1: they're gonna have their own platform that's gonna take uber out i just refuse to believe it what what do we think uber sears by the way i watched a documentary on sears last night mad what a sad story they used to be killers bro i didn't realize how big they were huge like i knew they were big with the catalog and everything because i remember looking at that catalog i didn't realize how much money they [00:44:25] Speaker 2: used to make so did they just they just waited too long to transition to internet or what like i don't [00:44:32] Speaker 1: what really transpired there steve they got caught between a rock and a hard place with being known for craftsman tools and kitchen appliances and they had competition from all these other places they tried going down the road i didn't realize that they bought a brokerage firm and an insurance company and tried doing everything because they had 25 million credit cards on file they wanted to become a one-stop shop for everything was actually visionary but it didn't work eddie lampert bought the company or became a ceo whatever bought out of bankruptcy or something spun out those parts the market loved it because it was worth more broken up but big brands fashion brands didn't want to associate with sears and sears was just left for dead there's only four stores open now four stores sears everybody yeah home depot happened lowe's happened walmart happens amazon happened it was a big fan of sears is think about it they were amazon before amazon with that catalog and shipping amazon ate their lunch with shipping sears auto we always took our ship to sears auto sears auto i mean sears was everything man [00:46:02] Speaker 2: what's the new sears steve google amazon [00:46:08] Speaker 1: i mean i don't know that you consider either of those sears i mean i mean like like the glory days of sears yeah i mean sears was one of the largest companies in the market at one point you know they built the sears tower in chicago is that what that's for [00:46:27] Speaker 2: what do you mean no okay what i'm just i'm joking crazy so what are we buying steve um uber i want to i'm going to give you some kudos here why that for anybody that was like steve-o little weirdo for buying core weave because it was dropping like a rock guess what how's it looking overnight steve is it but above 110 or what it's 106 we'll take it amateur it's okay you bought it all the way in like the 65 range i did so you're basically um the head competitor of the shook baby inc [00:47:14] Speaker 1: i'm the chief of staff of the shirt baby inc chief of staff you're not a shook baby though i mean some would say i am look at this though with uber this is on a ttm basis on revenue okay [00:47:27] Speaker 2: why are why do people hate this company why i'm surprised they're still growing at 16 good for them [00:47:36] Speaker 1: that's that's impressive on a ttm basis they have grown 16.7 year over year i mean look at how many quarters of quarter over quarter growth on ttm basis you you would have to go back to 2021 for them not to have grown on a quarter over quarter basis on ttm and people think this company's dead this company is just gonna go away not happening how the margins look uh let's see for you the margins are actually pretty good but i think uber's the next play matt i really do more than netflix yeah i like both actually let's put them up together let's oh what you're you know what matt why didn't i think of that that's why we have you here who so uber's got a 0.5 peg ratio like really love the peg like what are we doing what are we doing love the peg um now now netflix does have better roe and roic but that's not bad for mover that netflix has better margins they do more profitability but once again uber's margins are not bad i'll take an 18.3 free cash flow margin not bad but here's the thing you look at uber you're paying 15 times free cash flow you would you love ops cash you're paying 14.8 times ops cash you know i like the cash is king steve cash flow is better so i can't find any reason not to get excited about uber i really can't um yeah looking at it now what is is akman in uber as well or no i think he is i made an update i know he [00:49:56] Speaker 2: um you want to see the update i made i steve i would love to see the update okay so when we load the 13f [00:50:05] Speaker 1: data from the super investors i follow why is your camera frozen matt [00:50:11] Speaker 2: i don't know i think i'm on 1080p let me move it to 720. [00:50:15] Speaker 1: what is going on here why don't you have uh fast enough internet what's going on [00:50:22] Speaker 2: i don't think it's the internet i think it is i think it's you steve so when we look at bill [00:50:27] Speaker 1: ackman oh i can bring up look at all that fancy stuff i did we can bring up his 10q baby or his uh 13f filing i made all the graphics [00:50:41] Speaker 2: see if you think you're better than me to say i'm just saying so yeah yeah too much money in stocks [00:50:53] Speaker 1: not enough money for internet as of q1 uber was his third largest position that we know he made six new buys his new 13f is not out yet so we'll say no he wrote his shareholder letter that's how we know he has six new buys but yes ackman is an uber big steve you're a good man i mean some would say some would say [00:51:31] Speaker 2: interesting so he owns a pretty good pretty good portion of uh uber howard marx interesting what sears used to own discover [00:51:51] Speaker 1: that's uh i think they did [00:51:56] Speaker 2: when's the last time i was a shook baby steve when would you say was the last time i was a shook baby [00:52:00] Speaker 1: every day of your life the right answer so let's look at uber and netflix forward valuations i mean it's not even close matt look at this they're trading at 23 times this year's earnings 17 times next year in 13.7 2028 68 percent eps growth over the next two years and people think that uber is a dying company the analysts have this uh this is it this is the next play i'm gonna have to start position tomorrow again this is the next play again well i sold it to buy more core weave okay okay at a loss or no i made some money not a lot but i made some money [00:52:57] Speaker 2: it wasn't a big position hey man i do i do it i do it i i start like broadcom i trimmed that unfortunately or fortunately whatever you decide i don't hate the company it's just sometimes maddie maddie needs to to go harder in the paint on other positions and yes i may look at [00:53:17] Speaker 1: some spreads we'll see steve's all about the spread but yes i am give me a reason not to be bullish uber like a legitimate reason that i can sink my teeth into please please [00:53:39] Speaker 2: i would say that the easy money for for the company not the stock the easy money in uber has been made i don't know how much more they can squeeze out of the drivers themselves um but that being stated likely that um likely that their margins are going to continue to be pretty good so i don't hate it [00:54:12] Speaker 1: so let's do a little exercise matt [00:54:19] Speaker 2: how tough is it going to be i just [00:54:21] Speaker 1: i just got back from the gym so 223 billion annualized run rate gross bookings on uber we're going to eat and matt when gta 6 comes out i think uber eats is going to take everybody to the promised land is everybody's going to be inside ordering uber eats 75 markets 15 000 cities let's look at the uh [00:54:53] Speaker 2: do they have any charts in here now is it a silly question steve is it just a matter of time before they try to take on airbnb [00:55:03] Speaker 1: well i'm looking for their uh q2 deck so hold on uh is this it yes it is and it may be matt so look at this gross booking since the ipo has expanded a tremendous amount tremendous amount and they're getting into travel and venue experiences which i like i mean this is i don't know matt steve when's the last time you took an uber [00:55:52] Speaker 2: called months ago okay i just wasn't sure if you were like [00:55:59] Speaker 1: negative um i got a five-star rating baby i probably don't oh i i i make sure i have a five-star rating i'll tell you that oh no the last time i took an uber was uh when we were in chicago [00:56:18] Speaker 2: chi-rack come on yeah come months ago it was in may because i was in the uk [00:56:27] Speaker 1: i mean there's nothing not to like about this once again if somebody has a bear case i'm willing to listen [00:56:45] Speaker 2: what else can they get into steve hotels i feel like i feel like they could they could uh they could venture into other verticals [00:57:01] Speaker 1: same here i think they could [00:57:08] Speaker 2: but it's like that is so i mean i'm not trying to be that guy but i'm gonna be that guy is that really the best thing you got i'm not saying it's bad i'm just saying like i feel like there's other things out there that i'd rather put my money in okay like what good old company called rocket lab [00:57:25] Speaker 1: steve you're out of your mind but okay next decade i don't hate next decade but venture global so google i let's put it this way i think i would be out of uber before next decade starts to go okay because i i i don't think next decades going over ten dollars until 28. you're probably right on that but i think next decade has the potential to be a 50 to 100 stock i think it's just going to be 20 20 20 20 32 20 33. so i'm looking at this as i think uber is undervalued and a great value play today where i would want to be in it ride it to 110 and get out like uber is not a five or ten year play for me like that would be like a one to two year fly [00:58:26] Speaker 2: steve you know it looks really good what you in that chair secret lab man secret lab secret lab um interesting did we have any uh news with respect to donnie blowing [00:58:43] Speaker 1: up the world or what no but i i have a new theory on this that i really shouldn't say because i don't want to get political all right i have a feeling everybody in the chat this is not a political statement i am going to speak my mind though oh how is this here what's up hollis bd hollis i think that iran is going to hold out to the midterms are over because i think that they are just going to continue to screw around hoping that trump loses both congress and the senate and i'll put iran in a much better position because trump will have a lot more opposition on the matter now that's just a theory i don't know i could be 100 wrong but that's what i think is happening [00:59:40] Speaker 2: could be honest something steve i this guy keeps asking about vst i don't know anything about vst i'm not smart steve probably knows more about vst than i do no vista energy i got nothing i don't follow it oh my gosh these comments are out of control they're amazing [01:00:08] Speaker 1: comments are amazing diana what's going on i'm not this is a big week we got home depot we got walmart we got target and then next the following week we got nvidia we got benioff salesforce i mean this is big two weeks big big two weeks [01:00:42] Speaker 2: it sounds like um yeah it sounds like a good core of of great s p 500 companies so much you think we're gonna have a little bit of retracement steve last week we got a little bit i don't want to say ahead of our skis but we got we you know we're extending that that uh that bullish rally almost getting to the point where steve can uh claim he's no longer a liar [01:01:08] Speaker 1: yeah it's gonna happen you got three months steve i can't wait to make an i'm sorry video again i'm i'm sorry i'm gonna talk i'm gonna talk so much yeah for all of you that didn't see my i'm sorry video last time i talked so much and this one's gonna be 10 times worse you apologize to me in that video [01:01:30] Speaker 2: i appreciated that you're welcome you're welcome [01:01:38] Speaker 1: everyone loves steve everyone loves steve um i just matt i don't know can we get a retracement the answer is yes are we going to i don't know cpi is not bad 3.4 percent on cpi official core year over year is 2.5 percent i don't think that it's that bad of a deal and it doesn't look like the next print is going to be that crazy either so i think a lot is going to depend on jackson hole is what i think because if we don't get a rate hike in september you can make an argument that they're off the table now and if the bond market starts to pull back a little bit i think the market can rip and maybe um yard denny is correct and we get 8 200 or so [01:02:36] Speaker 2: that that is the truth i think the bond market is kind of what's scaring i mean the market obviously isn't scared but i think if you have the bond market kind of roll over which it's been kind of crazy to be honest with you then you might see a little bit more of a rally i could i can get on board with that well [01:02:57] Speaker 1: i mean i will tell you that we have not had the 30 year at this level since 2007. that's pretty well the 30 year is doing the fed's job for them like the fed doesn't need the high grades and here's the biggest problem that people overlook with rate hikes you can't have the 30 year at 5.26 when it was at one and a half in 2020. like once again everybody took out cheap debt and when you refi and re-roll the spread that you lose costs jobs not good like they got a lower rates unfortunately if the pandemic never happened we wouldn't have been in a dire situation but that's not the card we were dealt you know the 30 year it was normal back in 2017 which was well removed out of the financial crisis for the 30 year to be just under three percent i mean i would even say 2016 was pretty far removed from the financial crisis the 30 year was 2.18 [01:04:18] Speaker 2: being up here is crazy but i think in 2016 there was still qe yeah a little bit yes [01:04:26] Speaker 1: it's during qe3 or 4 or whatever what but the bit the bigger thing right now is do we think that ai now i'm excited to see what the s1 has because the s1 from anthropic could be incredible they're going to go public in october did you watch all in yet which which one more recent this one this week no okay how many people in the chat watched all in this week so gavin was on it was gavin jake allen sacks you ready for the numbers that they think anthropics revenue run rate will end that next year take 200 200 200 4 to 500 billion all three of them oh you mean combined no no no no each one of them believes minimum of 400 500 is where they see it say i believe sax even said he thinks it can be more than 500. revenue run rate are you kidding no i'm not kidding where are they at now 74 yeah so they went from nine to 74 from december to july and i would say that sax i'm gonna listen to him before i listen to any single bear considering he was the ai and crypto czar he may know something about something right guy built yammer guy may know something about something paypal mafia he may know something i can't fathom it but [01:06:25] Speaker 2: i will also say i could i couldn't have fathomed a lot of these things all i know is sax knows a lot more [01:06:32] Speaker 1: than me about this stuff [01:06:38] Speaker 2: so are you are you in are you in that or no i don't think you're in that what anthropic yeah no [01:06:46] Speaker 1: i would i'm probably gonna buy it on day one and then buy it if it goes double down if it goes down i want to be in it i think it's going to be one of the largest companies in the world and one of the most important companies in the world we'll see we're going to be able to read the s1 in a couple of weeks so i'm super excited about it oh yes thank you matt g that's right i own it indirectly in bst thank you i forgot about that and what bst yeah so this is the uh blackrock science and technology trust pays a six percent bst yeah bst he's a little six percent divvy when i was buying it paid a ten percent divvy and the holdings nvidia broadcom sk heinings anthropic is the fourth largest holding wham apple databricks private placement and real private placement [01:07:57] Speaker 2: so yes indirectly i have it and if that's true doesn't doesn't google and amazon yeah amazon google so i guess technically i am part of it [01:08:09] Speaker 1: i don't have a direct ownership i need that direct ownership [01:08:15] Speaker 2: i need repli to go to the moon steve that'd be nice so that maddie maddie can just bother you and troll you on stream every day there you go um people are asking a lot of a lot of they're chirping up in the chat about a lot of different companies there steve do you want to do you want to which one a little quick q a which ones um [01:08:38] Speaker 1: blue star airlines [01:08:42] Speaker 2: yes next decade rocket lab i saw somebody like a couple minutes ago ask [01:09:00] Speaker 1: oh i don't know sure about rocket lab so if you want to answer something about rocket lab go right ahead [01:09:05] Speaker 2: i don't know what people want like that's the thing is like you guys can ask a a lot about a lot but like just shouting out tickers like that doesn't really help ask like a targeted question i do think dutch bros actually so i will talk a little bit about dutch bros so i unfortunately sold out of dutch bros not because i dislike the company actually i think they do a really good job but i like to keep my concentration i actually wouldn't mind with where dutch bros is now potentially restarting a position um so yeah i think um i think that there's a an opportunity there uh they're they're abita i think for the year they're closing in on like 300 350 billion or something and their market cap is like 7 billion so and growing at a massive rate so i like i like bros [01:10:04] Speaker 1: which do you prefer uh i don't know i mean i'll tell you this i think both meta and broadcom are much bigger companies in 2028 so i think that you're fine on on those companies going higher but i don't know they could go down i don't know steve what do you think about oracle i like oracle i've been buying it i've been buying oracle i like it was buying down 116 nobody listens [01:10:45] Speaker 2: nobody listens to steve but listens so i think i think when dutch bros is buying solid and go and i could be wrong on this i think they're buying it so they can install the locations not because they actually want to take on salad and go i could be wrong on that though [01:11:04] Speaker 1: could be 100 wrong i mean they're still oh they're down here what happened to them [01:11:09] Speaker 2: they had a good earnings report steve they're getting killed yeah i think it's a great opportunity to buy [01:11:20] Speaker 1: what the hell are the numbers [01:11:32] Speaker 2: you have to think like building some of those dutch pros locations is going to cost like a million bucks so if they're able to buy a store or something for 100 200 grand then it's a win-win [01:11:43] Speaker 1: they're able to to do a lot i don't i don't hate the numbers you don't hate them or you don't have them no i don't hate them yeah i'm not in love with them but i don't hate them and they're growing [01:11:57] Speaker 2: their revenue grew 30 percent year over year and likely going to uh continue at a good pace and they're only increasing capital expenditure yeah but they're basically the past year or two they were shrinking the amount of capex they were putting in because they wanted to kind of remain cash flow break even and as their ebitda grows they're able to grow their capex too so do you know what netlist is [01:12:25] Speaker 1: no idea i've never heard of it i've legitimately never heard of this company [01:12:42] Speaker 2: are we omit larping yes [01:12:51] Speaker 1: uh i did not see crossroads video on figure i'm not i don't figure doesn't excite me at all [01:13:00] Speaker 2: yeah figure is definitely a roy uh question [01:13:09] Speaker 1: uh the reason i don't talk about photonics is because i don't research it don't really care about it oh that's a good one do you guys prefer starward vc or arcc i own all three and if i had to pick right now i would rank them in my opinion where they are now starwood aries capital and then vc properties [01:13:46] Speaker 2: you're here first bird here first so yeah i think so some people are asking about rocket lab they're they're disparate spectrums right so starlink is is going after like streaming or you know very fast-paced commercial internet versus rocket lab they're doing more backbone infrastructure sort of stuff like not you won't be but they'll be able to stream from and iridium communications maybe they'll figure a way out to do something like that but just the spectrum that they have is more built around low um like low latency or high whatever i don't know what the terminology is but basically low data um that you don't necessarily need to have hundreds of gigabytes or anything going through at any given moment [01:14:41] Speaker 1: and matt got disconnected everybody and he's back again thank you so much really appreciate it thoughts on next decade and its potential going bankrupt value investing has its odds at 49.1 percent [01:15:10] Speaker 2: do not know that steve it's going to zero always has been it's always been going to zero according to matt [01:15:20] Speaker 1: do i think they're going to zero now now is debt a risk i mean sure it takes a lot of money to build out the lng facilities they have 84 million in cash on hands [01:15:40] Speaker 2: who's value investing is that like a youtuber i guess [01:15:46] Speaker 1: and 10 billion yeah 10 billion in long-term debt so they are taking out a lot of debt to build this there's no question about that what we are going to need to see and look right now they're losing money no question about it i have not gone through the debt stack yet but when i think about where we are on exporting and what the eia said about exporting i am super excited about this industry there are going to be three main players with some ancillaries cheneer venture global next decade and the ancillaries are enbridge and energy transfer i think next decade is a big risk reward for me but i'm not really that concerned about the risk matt you've probably looked into the debt stack is there any merit to this of them going bankrupt or just value investing may be a website i'm not sure i mean any company can go bankrupt [01:16:57] Speaker 2: right but i guess from the build out i think that they have a lot of contracts coming uh that have been secured by the assets themselves uh and then there is obviously some debt that is at the corporate level not necessarily tied to the assets so there's that um i mean any company can go bankrupt but i think they have a great company in bechtel that has a lot of experience and they should be towards the end of the year getting gas online um export wouldn't happen until the first half of next year so it's not like meaningful revenue will be being generated until you know 2027 but i find it hard to believe that you know they they'll go bankrupt within the next two to three years i just i personally don't see it i think that the the the the the bankers would much rather refinance or or restructure than have the company go completely belly up but i'm just you know a bull so maybe i'm [01:18:09] Speaker 1: biased and i have a lot of shares so i would say the reality is this isn't a data center this isn't a real estate property it's really hard to run one of these companies you need it's very specific as expertise and the lng market is not easy to navigate so i wouldn't be that worried about this i want to see a site development matt when is the winter trains one through five coming online do you know [01:18:46] Speaker 2: trains one will likely start middle to end of next year and then it's six months after that i think train five should be online by 2030 2031. there's a graphic and this is the big thing [01:19:02] Speaker 1: every company is involved honeywell baker hughes abb backdell and then the pipelines running in are enbridge and mlpx i don't know who whitewater is enbridge is the big daddy and look at their customer base exxon total shell eqt or sordia ramco i mean the customers are there and the equity partners total energies as an equity partner they're not going to let this go belly up [01:19:37] Speaker 2: so guys i just want to i want to put a disclaimer out there i don't chase in your performance so i'm not sitting here being like what can i do to beat the sp500 in 2026 i don't give a flying what i care about is in five years ten years time that i over perform or outperform the market so there's been many years where i underperformed the market and then you know years like last year in 2025 where i outpaced the market by a significant margin that's all i care about i'm not trying to force anything i'm looking for outsized returns which i think next decade will be a 10x you know in a certain amount of time and over that you know 10 15 year period if you have this 10x you're going to be annualized getting anywhere between a 19 to 34 percent if i remember what my calculations looked like depending on what market cap it actually ends up being in and so to me i'm like okay is the s and b going to return 19 to 34 like no so okay you know the risk to reward in buying something like the next decade is appropriate for me and so it's not that i dislike a vg it's not that i dislike a broadcom i just try to look at risk versus reward and where i think the best thing is i don't care if i underperform the market until 2028. um i just think that when i really need the money which is probably going to be 20 28 and beyond this stuff is going to be uh much more valuable than it is today so hopefully that gives you guys context like i was early on palantir early on rocket lab down significantly and a lot of the like i'm i'm often down 30 percent in a lot of these positions before they actually go positive and then the whole time i'm adding um so i was down significantly on on palantir right now i bought direct listing day i bought more um you know when i dipped below 10 again and i was down at one point you know 30 something percent and then same thing with rocket lab so a lot of times i'm early on these things and then uh you know that's that's the way i generally look at these things i'm not in it for a short win i'm not smart enough um i'm not tevis you know tevis is way [01:21:53] Speaker 1: smarter than i am and good looking well when you look at when these trains are coming online q4 2027 train one q3 2028 for train two and then q1 2029 for train three so you get in a span of two quarters two more trains coming on in my opinion you got to be willing to hold next decade for five to ten years [01:22:24] Speaker 2: and this is not a one-year thing the key thing with this steve is that is a guaranteed substantial completion date meaning commercially online so there's commissioning commissioning cargos things that happened prior to that 4q 2027 date so we're a little bit over a year of these things being fully online so what that means is in the meantime you know maybe they're only pushing out 50 capacity or whatever but that's still revenue coming through the door and so i think but by the time you get to what is it trains four and five they're gonna have already made about three billion dollars worth of cash flow um and so if you think about it in that respect let's just say three billion dollars worth of cash flow between now and 2031 that's five years to make three billion dollars the price of the company right now is worth two billion dollars so you mean to tell me in that respect that you're basically going to be producing more uh cash flow distributable cash flow by 50 over the next five years and the company's actually worth and that's even before train four and five fully get ramped up so i think that this company is is severely undervalued i think as it is today should be worth closer to 10 billion dollars um and then once they get the additional trains online i think it could be worth 25 billion dollars i honestly think it'll end up being 30 to 35 but obviously to get to get those additional trains on i mean we're talking middle 2035 getting closer to 2040. so um but in the meantime you know a 5x with what the company is doing today what's sanctioned today i think is is not bad plus buyback steve you only have 260 million shares it's not that much [01:24:33] Speaker 1: i mean i started buying i'm building a long-term position in it but i also expect to hold it for minimum five to ten years minimum i also think that we're going to see a better price point down the road than we do today i think it's going to fall a little bit i think it's going to go up and down i think it can trade as low as 550 and maybe as high as eight or nine i don't think it's breaking 10 for quite some time and i'm not rushing in to build the position out in the next month or two is i think that i still have time before the market really starts to appreciate the story all right let's take a look at where we're finishing at and we're going to call the night soon hoodio hood hood all right this is a big week we got consumer retail through the big three memory gone wild trying to get back to all-time highs i think they're both going higher amd 519. i am not a wise man tevis miss you this weekend i'll call you and let you know what happened um tanner may have told you but um i had some obligations i just couldn't get up there google has an excuse i don't i'm just a shook baby i have a legitimate excuse google 348 57 broadcom 394 tomorrow this is gonna be the big news we need to see if there's any updates on what the breach was with vmware i'm waiting for more information before i really talk about it i want i just want more information but yes there was a pretty substantial breach marvel spacex [01:26:39] Speaker 2: maybe spacex bottom that maybe it bottoms i hope not i hope it i hope it uh [01:26:48] Speaker 1: it takes a little tumble until september oh you know what let's finish it with this he's still in the lead he's no longer the double digit man but he's still in the lead i'm coming for you steve you mean i'm coming for you you were ahead of me i overtook you coming for you okay i've been waiting chris is making a comeback [01:27:21] Speaker 2: jason's making a comeback wasn't down like 20 at one point i think it was down like 24 or something like that jesus yeah no [01:27:35] Speaker 1: what do you got in here man you got anything i can take off your hands how about this i'll take micron off your hands for what well i have a little company that you may be interested in called taiwan semi that's not a horrible trade that's a fair trade taiwan semi is going to go boom it's really not that bad of a trade it's safer than micron i can tell you that steve i'm um i'm going big you're going home okay it's a good offer though it's i'm not trying to screw you that's not bad it's a good time taiwan semi is a quality company [01:28:30] Speaker 2: no they're both great companies [01:28:34] Speaker 1: they're both great you let me know you sleep on it and it's an open offer i will take micron off your [01:28:42] Speaker 2: hands oh you know i'll sleep on it i'm a sleepy baby uh you love being a sleepy baby [01:28:49] Speaker 1: you love it and then captain sleepy time himself man look at this kid he's got four companies that are up 30 percent or more what a dick good for him good role model [01:29:19] Speaker 2: that is a good role model he's a he's a sleeping champion [01:29:23] Speaker 1: he's sleep maxing his way to first place unbelievable so are you steve trying to all right everyone thank you for joining the sunday future show we have memory running wild trying to get back to all-time highs big week this week with walmart target and home depot and then the following week you get in video wednesday the 26th you get benny off wednesday the 26th and i think we have brook um early september let me double check real quick broadcom's earnings are september 2nd we're gonna say i'm super excited is uh jackson hole this week steve uh jackson holes this week i believe is it is [01:30:38] Speaker ?: is it hold on [01:30:40] Speaker 1: no next week is uh the 27th through the 29th so it's a well said all right everyone get your sleep drink your milk we will see you tomorrow have a great night everyone whole milk whole milk or nothing