Stock Market Futures Show: FOMC, META, MSFT

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: good evening everybody hopefully you had a good weekend what's going on thank you all for being here lisa's here chels is here gonzo george sal thank you everybody for being here what everybody do this weekend what did everybody do missy ledgers here pb cubits you guys are the best bradley thank you so much welcome it's gonna be a fun time it's gotta be a big week melanie how are you big big week june what's going on all right before we get in the markets retail markets are opening at eight o'clock got a lot of things that was up 250 to 300 crudes falling which we like what happened over the weekend quick rundown quick rundown the strikes overseas stopped no new u.s strikes in iran since friday that we know of it's first pause after 13 consecutive nights of attacks and that started july 11th iran's offer all right tehran signaled it will hold fire as long as the u.s pause holds both sides are still talking through the u.s the u.s the u.s the u.s the u.s and iranian talks and china's backing it everybody wants this debt china's backing it we know that there was a deal between china and or not deal but an agreement per se that china and russia would not sell arms to iran so everybody wants this to end all right how to make one quick update so where we stand right now we have a big week some would say this is the biggest week of earnings season we have an fomc meeting on wednesday 2 p.m and the presser at 2 30. we have big tech microsoft and meta report wednesday after the close just hours after the fed decision we also have apple this week i believe we have amazon this week too i need to double check i believe we have amazon amazon this week huge week now fomc is i care about everything we also have robin hood and sofi which are community favorites i may go back and listen to basin's points you know what i gotta check with admit make sure i'm not going to get a strike maybe in honor of sofi earnings maybe we'll do a live stream of that episode and listen to it together um let me see if i can pull that off i'm not sure if how we have it set up maybe we'll do it as members only not sure part of it i'm really excited about sofi i think the macro is definitely a headwind from a perception standpoint non-execution standpoint now fomc it's not looking good people it is not looking good and you know what i'm giving in i am gonna give in why why is this not there we go it's gonna say something's not working on my computer i don't know why i don't know what the hell's going on but i finally got working so let's bring it up fed watch cme group they are saying there is a 63.7 chance nothing happens 36 chance we get a hike on tuesday there on wednesday there is no fed meeting in august we have jackson hole then september october december because there's no november meeting by the end of the year there is more than a 90 chance that we get a rate hike more than a 90 chance i'm not happy with that and i think it may be a little wrong but we'll see the base cases we're going to hold markets are pricing in at least one hike this year now now the worse factor who took over for powell has abandoned his forward guidance entirely he streamlined in the june statement right now the recent plot indicates nine fed officials expect at least one hike this year fixed income markets are pricing in two hikes september meeting is where everybody is saying it's going to happen now inflation rolled over and now it's coming back it looks like as far as i can tell i made some updates to nowflation.com and i do have some oil trackers on there now you are free to use it whenever you want nowflation.com is free for the public we are at 2.05 we were as low as 1.73 so inflation on a real-time basis is going higher if you're interested in seeing what's happening with oil i built out a full oil tracker which indicates if we are at a deficit or surplus based on the monthly drilling we have a lot of other indicators here that you can look at including the gasoline crack spread strategic petroleum reserve u.s shell rig counts you can also find more under markets i have a petroleum reserve map that i built and a strategic reserve map that i built the petroleum reserves you can go in and see what the last global assessments were so if you're interested in oil the oil markets i built a lot of things on nowflation.com for you and then there's big tech microsoft and meta report on wednesday after the close i spoke with tanner this evening it seems like he will be doing robin hood i believe with roy and emit maybe can't confirm i don't know what they're doing no tanner's doing it um i will be doing meta and microsoft on wednesday so on wednesday the schedule is going to be a little weird i'll be on at 11 30 till say 12 30 12 45 and i'm going to come back for 2 or 2 15 for the fed press conference and i'm probably just going to keep the stream going for meta earnings and we're going to do meta we're going to do microsoft the main call that i care about is meta i am to my knowledge the longest standing meta shareholder out of our group i've owned it for more than a decade thanks to my my wife she is much smarter than i am and we've been long-term shareholders of meta i care a lot about what zuck says on the call and i do not want to hear metaverse out of his mouth unless they are cutting the spend otherwise i want it all to be about agents and how they're implementing ai services into the business ventures for instagram and facebook to up sell and monetize their business customers then we have apple on thursday we have amazon on thursday wednesday is going to be a busy day because not only do you have microsoft and meta you got so far in the morning and i know tanner roy and tevis i believe are going to do so fi earnings i will not it's too early in the morning i'm not getting up at that time i'll give you guys my thoughts on the 11 30 stream and we go from there this week is a big week this is arguably the biggest week because the fed meeting and for the mag 7 report so i'm excited lena's here what's going on lena addicted to trading is here how are you thank you everybody for being here really appreciate it you guys are the best prudy thank you so much stay hydrated i will try ogb thank you so much really appreciate it may i meet you new member thank you craig appreciate it ogb getting insane admit of interviews for jobs in the last two months overwhelming i'm an nj or amt okay sorry amd silly burnt thank you so much really appreciate it all right let's get the hoodie oh hood legend up let's get it firing and i'm excited i got a good feeling about this week i think the market got it wrong i think look my opinion everybody knows my opinion is that we are so early and i i was really thinking about it today and i asked some people that are older and i said to them you know this ai revolution feels a lot like the computing revolution that really still to this day hasn't stopped and i think everybody on the bear side is just being very short-sighted with how long this can actually go if you look at revenue from all these computing companies it just continued to grow like you think about it back in the day and i think i have a different opinion than some people because i actually remember the days i'm beneficial how are you i remember the days before the internet i mean back in the 80s and mid early to mid 90s there was no internet there was no cell phones the only people that had cell phones they were like bricks that you put in your trunk there was no tablets there's no laptops and we have we live through if you were born in the 80s you have lived through every single technological revolution from little tube tvs to plasmas to flat screens to traditional cable to fiber i mean technology doesn't stop and i think that's why i'm so bullish on ai and i don't think this is going to stop i'm ready i think people are wrong discounting what alphabet said i think they're wrong on what amd said and i think that this is validation of how bullish we can be and look i think we're going to see a capex step up next week or this week now and that's fine i want it i want all the capex spent because you know what history has told us that it just doesn't stop that technology keeps going forward and i want to be invested in that environment i want to be invested in that environment holy shit cost me 3 500 for my first car phone that's a big number that is a big number look we're early we're early we are so early and chris i saw what you said if you'd like to come on and discuss i'll shoot you a uh link you're more than welcome to come on if you're able to all right ladies and gentlemen let's get ready i got the bill that mike got me got ready we're almost there all right the future markets are open service now getting a little bit of a pump we're trying to get back to a hundred can it do it it wants to do it 99 wants to do it 99 14. verizon chris has got to be really happy on the spreads he bought where the hell did verizon go sometimes i hate clicking on something like that because it's just kind of where the hell uh where to go vz where are you where'd you go all right 46.29 it went down just a tick he's got to be happy on those contracts all right we'll go back up to the top all right bmnr trying to do something with its life wix 5140 ethereum trying to get back over 2000 sandisk sandisk where'd you go 1480 i rent 3833 strategy 94 and change we got some runners micron trying to do something smci 3087 hoodie o hood hood heading into earnings 97 and change jake rizzo is here ladies and gentlemen jake rizzo is here all right oil let's go to the big chart for oil the fact that oil is down that much i gotta say if we get a ceasefire i do think we go under 75 again i was right the first time on the direction and the band and i do think that band can get re-established but we need a real ceasefire otherwise we hit 115 120. otherwise we have 115 120. but i like the direction it's down five and a quarter right now on a percent i like the direction of it okay amd 530 we're at 530 on amd we're at 335 on apple and i'll tell you this heading into earnings do i think that apple is overvalued no i think apple should be the barometer for great companies apple deserves to trade at a premium 30 times earnings to me is not expensive for apple when walmart has a larger valuation i don't apologize for that apple is one of the greatest companies in the stock market if you can't put your confidence in apple i don't know what the hell you can put your confidence in amd 530 it's a great company a lot of forward growth maybe a little pricey here but going forward i like it amazon 234 one of the most undervalued mag 7 companies there is broadcom i am shocked it's still under 400 i am shocked we'll see what happens we got salesforce 164 and unfortunately i may have to change my tune it's an amazing company fundamentals are amazing the buybacks are amazing free cash flow yields it's perception and i don't know the perception's ever going to go away unfortunately i just don't know this is shocking okay core weave is absolutely shocking here i think that this is just another opportunity heading into earnings core weave is in august but we got microsoft amazon and meta i think the meta news was a nothing burger they still have to pay core weave for years and years and years i put out a dedicated video on this and i'm i'm building my position now i'm building my position now i think this is an opportunity energy transfer you know it's one of my favorite midstreams alphabet 321.70 we're going to look at some valuations in a few minutes hood just lost 97. meta 600 we are heading into earnings and meta is a screaming deal in my opinion look i won't be surprised if meta is at 525 or 750 on thursday how about that i won't be surprised if it is either direction by that much meta's got so much firepower and so much potential i'm here for it microsoft 384 another one that's disgustingly cheap disgustingly cheap we got micron 947. people are worried about what happens four or five six years not this year not next year out into the future i think micron's fine next decade just above seven i am getting more and more interested in establishing a position netflix 7052 service now 9870 nvidia hanging in there 20903 we got nvidia earnings in three weeks i think three weeks from now and they're gonna crush it i think they're gonna crush it realty incomes a great one 65 62 i'll probably buy a little more in a couple of weeks oracle 117 i gotta tell you this is uh another one that is just being up so much and you know what i wouldn't be surprised if it goes under 100 unfortunately i am not done building out my position and i will continue buying oracle on the way down palantir we are one week away from palantir earnings we are one week away i will put out a prediction video on saturday heading into earnings i think they're going to pull off a monster their net dollar retention rate and the amount of deals if i remember correctly they did 204 or 208 deals that were over a million dollars each in q1 i think pounder is going to come out and i think that they are going to absolutely slaughter earnings and i am here for it i actually am bullish on palantir again ogb thank you so much i really appreciate all the support thank you i'm not in blackstone yet i'm getting interested in blackstone i'm not in it yet very interested in blackstone all right qualcomm this is a company yes zuck is going to swing the excalibur on wednesday and you know what i am finally going to use that thumbnail of zucks swinging the excalibur i'm gonna do it doing it for earnings qualcomm is something where i want to be in it i think i'm starting a position this week we will say i think qualcomm is just an interesting situation profitability is on point growth is very limited at the moment but you're if you're this is a five-year thesis for qualcomm i think it's starting to look really interesting again i made a mistake and not buying it when i was discussing it with emit i'm not going to make that mistake twice i can tell you that reddit is trying to make a little move higher one 71 50. one 71 50. and then there was rocket lab 65. my own opinion okay i don't know if it gets to where it was anytime soon i hope it does for the space mob smci around 31 sofi i'm gonna probably put out a prediction video on sofi on tuesday and i've been thinking a lot about this and i want to go back and listen to basis points again there's no reason so if i can't compound earnings at 30 to 40 percent for the next several years this company executes all they do is execute the market hates them and you know what i have a large position relative to my portfolio on sofi and these price levels make me want to buy more now that does not mean that i am buying more but it makes me want to buy more and the problem is if they come out and they don't beat and raise if they just beat on the top and bottom but leave guidance the same unfortunately i think the street's going to take them down unfortunately i think the street takes them down i think they want guidance increased because they were so used to getting that from nota but i i do believe sofi is going to crush it now whether the market respects it or not is a different story spacex all right spacex 113.51 i'm going to try not to curse no s okay what did you think was going to happen now they report spacex when do they report uh august 4th so that's next next what monday tuesday next tuesday spacex reports pre-market oh my god pre-market am i really going to wake up for that i don't want to wake up for that i don't want to wake up for that let me let me see in the chatter you guys actually we're gonna run a uh poll right now first poll of the night to data mine everybody you guys know i love data mining the community are you guys interested in the spacex pre-market why will why doesn't it just come up muted so annoying are you planning on listening to the space the spacex conference call yes or no i'll take my information from all of you and if you are i will ask admit if he is uh streaming it thank you prudy really appreciate it all right not a lot of you look i'm not i don't short anything i think it's bad karma but i also think that the valuation is suspect my own opinion my own opinion all right all right so more no's than yes here's the next one out of the two because i'm not sure what time the conference calls are which cc are you more interested in meta or msft let's see let's see let's see 60 40 70 30 keeps going back and forth okay we'll leave that up for a few minutes tesla 315 look i think tesla can go lower i really do and then zeta zeta is coming up soon i'm really excited i think so far is going to drop some bombs now if that translates so higher share price i got no clue but they have several announcements supposedly ready for earnings and i'm excited now microsoft the consensus eps is four dollars and 21 cents let's pull it up on the big chart microsoft on the big chart man it's an ugly year it is down so much let's look at a five-year chart i mean microsoft i think is still in the bear market now step down 18 year to date it's down a little bit further from the 52 week highs azure grew 40 percent last quarter 40 percent you got ai capacity co-pilot monetization the capex numbers is what everybody cares about okay morgan stanley trimmed their target from 650 to 600 but they're still overweight now if azure beats and capex guidance comes in relatively sane i think it's going to rebound the problem is what's relatively sane we know that amy hood said 190 for calendar year 26 microsoft doesn't report on a calendar year they report on a fiscal year they're reporting their q4 earnings not q2 that means that you get you're ready for this that means that you're gonna get the fiscal year capex number that includes the back half of 2026 on a 190 year and in q1 and q2 microsoft deployed microsoft deployed be nice if i had on a quarterly on the chart be nice right you guys aren't ready for this you guys are not ready for this let me break down the math for you so in q1 they deployed 29.88 billion in capex then in q2 30.88 billion so between the two get ready for a crazy capex number get ready just get ready is all i have to say get ready so in the past two quarters they've done 60.7 billion they're going to deliver their capex number for the second quarter of 2026 and their fourth quarter so right now q the first quarter 2026 call it 31 billion and they're doing 190 i mean you could see them come in at i don't know 50 billion this quarter 45 50 i mean they still have for 2026 159 billion to deploy from where they said they were going to be on a quarterly average that's 53 billion and change 53 billion and change so on their fiscal year in 2027 you're you already have 106 billion in the first half and they said they're going to spend more than they did this year i think capex is going to be 225 to 240. i got i think that's what they're going to do so i don't know what a sane number is or how the market's going to respond they did say they're going to double their data center footprint they did say that they are signing a 20-year energy agreement with chevron i think microsoft earnings are going to be great i just don't know if they're going to rebound only because of capex now meta we have an opposite setup we have an opposite setup on meta i mean it looks like it's consolidating on a five-year basis but if we look at a one-year chart it's not great at all all right metas i mean meta and microsoft back and back on it pretty even we're going to try to listen to both calls on wednesday i promise you i'll try to listen to both of them for you but for me meta takes precedent over microsoft if they're at the same time so meta's ad machine had impressions of 19 percent and pricing up 12 percent there's a swing factor with capex 125 to 145 billion it could creep higher operating margins were over 41 percent in q1 i think they're going to blow the doors off in q2 we will see what zuck does the most important thing for zuck do not mention metaverse unless you're slashing the spend try to avoid capex going up those are the two most important things for zuck but i think they're going to crush it i mean they grew q1 by 33 percent on revenue we got amazon consensus eps 181 north american segment is expected one point or 114.8 billion now aws re-accelerated their growth will be what is on the table i think the street's going to look to say if it decelerates or continues accelerating we will say but this is a big week and we're going to bring somebody on to get his thoughts on what this week is going to look like [00:33:31] Speaker 2: mr chris patel how are you this weekend good man just uh much a bunch of open houses this weekend with [00:33:38] Speaker 3: the wife you're gonna have to change your mic wrong mic it's always the wrong mic let's see uh come on come on i think i have to [00:34:02] Speaker 2: yeah how many mics do you have no i only have one but what it is is it's um craig [00:34:10] Speaker 1: there we go addicted to trading thank you very much i really appreciate all the support you guys are the best so what do you have for some reason the headphones and then your regular mic so there's [00:34:21] Speaker 2: technically there's a bunch of ones there's a mic in here like unlike you i actually use my headphones because you know i want to so i use my headphones there's a mic in the camera which can pick things up and then there's um the actual mic itself so the thing is like i have the mic on my interface but sometimes what happens is when i turn turn the computer on it has to default and has to come [00:34:45] Speaker 1: on so yeah not true all right so which earnings are you most excited about this week we got a ton robin hood sofi meta amazon microsoft apple [00:35:01] Speaker 2: i'd say i'd say i mean personally i care a lot about microsoft and meadow because i have positions in both but in terms of where we're headed in this market um i think just the hyperscalers really the hyperscalers will give us indications on how much more spend there's going to be i think right now we're in this zone of liquidity where as long as the liquidity is a lot well and alive and everyone is quote unquote spending money everyone should be you know all every every other company should be fine i mean the economy right now in my opinion is being driven by ai without ai i think we would be in a recession right now i don't disagree with that yeah because i actually don't disagree yeah with oil spiking as hot as high as it is and then manufacturing jobs coming down i think ai really is like saving us you know and then you consider all the rate increases and you've got weakness in a lot of the commercial and even i'm starting to see like weakness in housing now too so [00:36:16] Speaker 1: yeah oil is a problem and this is an even bigger problem so i'm not sure if you saw the update that i made but i am now have the global oil tracker and this month were 4 million barrel per day deficit versus consumption production that's not good yeah definitely not that's not good it's not expected to inverse until october like we're expected to draw down for the next three months [00:36:51] Speaker 2: based on the eia trends i mean i don't know you have to look at the forward curve on a lot of these things like the one thing is we don't have any oil in storage right now like there's no floating storage that's holding a lot so i don't know we just have to then this whole thing with iran it's like we're getting some sort of traction on this thing not being as crazy as it is and trump on third on friday didn't allow the attack but there was no like hey listen this is like a complete pivot away from away from any major escalation so uncertainty is still there [00:37:30] Speaker 1: we've depleted the strategic reserve by a tremendous amount over the past decade or so yeah tremendous amount i mean we're at the lowest point we've been at since the 80s [00:37:47] Speaker 2: how crazy is that yeah but i mean you still got a lot of room to go you could still go down it's not like we're out it's a strategic reserve the thing is that hopefully we're smart enough to get oil down to the 50s and 60s and then start refilling that and refill yes yes now [00:38:09] Speaker 1: this week we got the fomc right smack in the middle of earnings that's wednesday afternoon i'm not sure what you're doing but i'm gonna go live if you want to come on i want to listen to what warsh says i have no idea what to expect i don't think they hike but i think they're getting closer to a hike unfortunately and i think it's for the wrong reasons but i'm super interested in what warsha's speech is [00:38:34] Speaker 2: going to be what's your what's what are you talking about like what's your what do you think he's going to like why do you think he's going to hike and what he's wrong about it no no i'm not saying [00:38:46] Speaker 1: he's going to there's nine fed members that are penciling in a hike okay and it is a committee vote and he's just one vote i think that with oil going up and if oil stays above 80 unfortunately it could sway more fed members to think that we need a hike and the inflation we saw there there's clear evidence that it rolled over with the last report going from 4.2 to 3.5 and that all all to most of the inflation was oil induced as long as oil comes down to that band of 65 to 75 there's no reason for a hike but with oil over 80 if it stays over 80 for two months i think that we'll see the print go down to about 3.3 or so this time around and then start to travel back up to four to four and a half on cpi and if they do that coming out of jack going into jackson hole and coming out in september they could get outvoted and we could get a rate hike for the wrong reasons because if this actually ends and we have this but don't they strip out energy oh yeah they say they strip out energy and that's why they look at core but if you if you're just going by core there's no reason to hike right now especially with the amount of debt americans are carrying the amount of debt on the fed's balance sheet there's no reason to hike mortgage more what's the core right now what what is the core right now is i don't remember hold on uh cpi where are you [00:40:34] Speaker 2: i think the bigger challenge and like i said you can disagree agree you've got more costs coming in from durable durable goods because of memory prices and because of all the ai spending durable goods makes up a lot bigger of an impact and so if we start to see prices on electronics and phones and all this other stuff go up it all bleeds into businesses like i'll give you an example like my hospital we're in the middle of refreshing all of our computer systems and everything and we need you know a lot of desktops like the desktops are going to cost us an arm and a leg because we you know we have to get memory for them and we have to get easy uh uh ecc memory for all of our uh towers so that's not cheap and it's going to be expensive so i don't know durable goods is probably where i'm probably where i'm more concerned right now but yeah so core's a 2.6 it was at 2.9 in may [00:41:34] Speaker 1: and look it got driven up by oil and it rolled over because of oil now oil is going to play a big [00:41:42] Speaker 2: role we need it away from 80. and look if we get can you do a three-year a three-year let's just take a look [00:41:50] Speaker 1: go five or ten because i mean russia ukraine was right here yeah but we also had a lot of liquidity [00:42:00] Speaker 2: coming into the market that time too right so you had housing memoratorium you had food stamps up the wazoo um what is it called you had all sorts of protection for renters at the time and then you had stimulus checks on top of it so everything added to that inflation mix i think i think the the fed overdid it with their coveted support and they and the federal government went a little too hardest but you know also and then you kind of had this this issue where home prices skyrocketed because interest rates had gone down so much during 2020 and so you kind of had this like huge wealth effect happen where everyone who's bought a home there's like a 500 000 home if interest rates dropped to like say three percent all of us are now a lot of those homes just went up to like 700. so a lot of people felt like oh my god my net worth just went up by 250 000 they went out and they spent money we had a period where car prices were insane and carve out you know car prices are starting to come down now as well [00:43:08] Speaker 1: so i don't know we'll see we'll see what happens warsh's speech is going to be very important q a is going to be very important if they move to real-time data will be important but yeah we need oil under 80. if it's not under 80 i think we get a hike in september i'm i'm probably going to say if oil is at 60 [00:43:31] Speaker 2: and it stays around 60 then we can start getting cuts 100 i agree at 80 to maybe 100 i think we're probably like let's just see what happens like just kind of like waffles and stays there anything above 100 and it's a sustained anything above 100 you're starting to see hikes so i think that's like the bands that i'd say probably like 60 to 80 you get rate cuts 80 to 100 you get flatness and then if it's 120 i mean 100 to 120 plus it's all going to be you know raises but the question is how much duration do you need to have for that to bleed into the numbers [00:44:17] Speaker 1: three to six months yeah this is right now it's on a backward looking basis and maybe not even three maybe two to four because we were already at a difficult situation in the spring so it may only [00:44:33] Speaker 2: be two to four right now what's the logic in doing the stupid tariff things again then like does that make [00:44:40] Speaker 1: any sense to you he needs to drop it he needs to drop it right i'm not him i'm a little annoyed with him in these trade policies trying to do too many things at once get this situation in the middle east resolved i don't think you need to go after these tariffs if anything they need to figure out what the hell they're going to do with the eu right now i mean the thing is like at what point does like [00:45:10] Speaker 2: at what point do we start to ask ourselves we've got someone that has too much power i think there's concentrate like you can't have a situation where you have one branch they're able to do things by executive order that goes against the constitution but you have to find out in the constitution for like a year before it comes out like right now everyone found out that the tariffs were unconstitutional like supreme court basically made like this is what the what the president did for the last year is unconstitutional but we had to wait an entire effing year before it before it got you know before that came out now what does this guy do he just says well you know what i'm going to do tariffs with another another thing and like what now we have to wait another year for the supreme court to say it's allowed or not allowed anymore you know what i mean like that's i feel like this is something that is a is a problem because now all the executives are starting to do the same thing and i'm getting kind of annoyed at it and i'm not blaming just trump i think the biden and obama thing where it was just like oh you know what i'm gonna just do daca like even if let's say the the situation is different the executive can't just come out with like executive orders and then you have to find out like way later on like why isn't this the job of the legislature to come out with the rules that's what they're there for not the president makes a ruling on something and then we figure it out with a judge you know it's like the stupidest thing like where the checks and balances and the republicans are cowards like there's the only republican in the republican caucus like party that actually even tries to challenge the president is maizey and that's about it everyone else is like a freaking clapping seal like every time and it's like when are you guys going to put like the country before before the before the party [00:47:04] Speaker 1: you know good question better question is does the defense budget get passed and if it does are we buying lockheed martin yeah i don't know well maybe i think the munitions are drained lockheed is one of [00:47:19] Speaker 2: the biggest beneficiaries because of missiles i'm i'm gonna disagree that the current old school defense contractors are the way that you want to play this only because i see upstarts coming in in the defense space that are really taking market share and they're using a more silicon valley but what do we have access [00:47:40] Speaker 1: to we don't have access to andro unless we go private market well that's what i'm saying the private [00:47:44] Speaker 2: markets is is where the opportunity is for disruption right i think over time over the next 10 15 years you're going to see this slow dinosaur of an old school like way of doing defense go bye-bye and you're probably going to see the andrels of the world actually being a lot more you know focused and what does that mean that means in the future i think the multiples for these companies is pretty much going to be based on the current like low yielding growth low margin growth that they have and i'm [00:48:16] Speaker 1: not exactly too excited about that are you i think there's a world where both andrel and a company like like lockheed do well and lockheed is not just a missile company i mean they do so many things especially with space and everything else they do so much i think a lockheed will be okay raytheon will be okay no i mean 1.3 1.4 trillion on the defense budget it's something i have to consider with adding [00:48:44] Speaker 2: some of these companies to my portfolio i'm gonna stay out of those like i just i'm not a fan of it i've got you know me i sometimes have a moral compass and the thing is i i don't have a lot of rules that i like invest by but this is one of them i don't do tobacco i don't do defense like it's not defense let me say i don't do things that are can be used offensively against innocent people i got that you know so like some of this yeah yeah some of this stuff is just i'm not too keen on it i'm not because i like and i'm never gonna like guilt anyone for investing in things like that by all means go for it but it's just something about me morally like every time i look at a defense company and it creates certain weapons that could theoretically be used on innocent people i'm just i don't know so would you get back into palantir if it got low enough and if i believed that uh aip wasn't just a one-time thing and it was a sustainable durable product then yeah yeah i'd consider it i just i'm the things i'm reading and i'm sure the chat will hate me for saying this but there is a question of durability on aip that i've been reading about that i don't know if it's a hundred percent legit legit or if it's real i don't know we'll see what happens we have plenty of time to find that out [00:50:18] Speaker 1: palantir is i'm bullish again on it i'm not actively buying i still have a good position in it if it was to fall under a hundred i would buy again i think it goes higher i think they're gonna blow earnings out of the water on monday not this monday next monday i think they blow earnings out of the water i really do i think there's a world people are gonna please do not get excited with what i'm about to say i still have to finish my model and i will have my prediction video out on saturday i think there's a world they come out 95 to 100 revenue increase year over year they have 150 net dollar retention rate and the amount of deals that they've added over the past 15 months is crazy absolutely crazy their margins are insane palantir i think they're gonna pull some [00:51:16] Speaker 2: drivers over the next couple of quarters we gotta do a lot of channel checks in my opinion like like there are things that i've heard i don't know if it's true just just i'm not i'm not there's so many other great sas companies that i know the product a lot more that i think i have ability to like invest in palantir is just one of those things that just i don't know like even like every time i think about it because i've done so much research on the damn thing i look at it i'm just like i don't see it but i've clearly been wrong because the numbers are are what they are right so so but i'm not going to chase i'm not going to chase it at 300 billion dollars we got a couple of other companies [00:52:01] Speaker 1: reporting this week exxon chevron friday we have ford i happen to be a shareholder paypal coca-cola qualcomm are you interested in hearing what any of them said i mean paypal a little bit because [00:52:20] Speaker 2: paypal's got a um you know that pending deal so we could get some sort of news on active negotiations that could be helpful you know i mean you've got offer from stripe but then stripe also made an offer for open router uh i don't know like a lot of the stuff you just when you listen to the conference clause it gives you a better idea of where we're headed in the next like five not five but at least like the next two to three years so i'll still be listening even if i don't have an interest like i'll listen to the sofi one about how they are planning on justifying the current value you know are they going to do any additional at the money offerings at a certain price because i mean that's what they did last time so we just have to keep an eye on that and then what's going to happen with crypto legislation with um what and how do you plan on monetizing the the whatever the acts that are [00:53:15] Speaker 1: coming out right now clarity act clarity act that's right yeah so qualcomm's the one that i don't own that i'm the most excited about because qualcomm is at a 176 billion market cap yeah and when i put them up against amd and marvel here's the crazy part they do almost the same revenue as both of those companies together but they do more gross profit they do more ebitda more operating income more net income than both amd and marvel combined okay i'm gonna i'm gonna show you something once you're done and you tell me i know i know i i talked to tanner the whole robot thing i i saw it which one what robot thing the one where they put their they were showing off some robot that had their chips in it was falling over all over the place no no i care about that's whatever that doesn't matter all right their margins i would say incredible for a chip company absolutely incredible and their free cash flow 12 and a half billion dollars this thing trades at 14 times free cash flow 13.4 times ebitda and i'm planning on starting a position in qualcomm this week heading into earnings for two reasons one i think it's dirt cheap and two they are getting backed by zuckerberg and nadella that already have signed contracts for their cpu server chips in 2029 multi-generational and i think qualcomm is a story that it's going to take three to five years for it to work out this is not a six month play but i think they are going to be a force to be reckoned with in the back half of the ai revolution and they're going to make a huge upswing in revenue and eps and i want to build out the position over the next year and when we get the 6g stuff they'll probably be very big in that also [00:55:28] Speaker 2: so here's my question to you what is what is the key risk why is it down so much then i mean the numbers you're saying are great they're amazing right so why very low growth [00:55:38] Speaker 1: it's very very low growth for years look very low growth is very low growth but there is a [00:55:43] Speaker 2: particular reason and you haven't mentioned it yet so i don't know if it's a blind blind spot for you [00:55:48] Speaker 1: but i got it it's not c cdma it's it's i mean they definitely don't have gpus but it's not cdma they [00:55:56] Speaker 2: still have all the patents so what is it you tell me what is it i know what it is i want to know i'm asking you what is it type in apple qualcomm did apple get rid of their modems in the iphone pretty much i think i remember that yeah they're losing apple as a customer over time yeah apple yeah but that was in 2025 yeah because it's going in the forward so if you're looking at a company you're not saying yeah let me look at last year's numbers and you know go based on that you're looking at okay what is the total amount of revenue that they used to get from apple what are the margins and they have to replace that going forward you tell me how you replace apple's apples uh yeah [00:56:45] Speaker 1: they're taking the hit on the chin this year the revenue is actually declining this year and barely moving next year the growth is expected to happen in 28 and 29 from all the server stuff they're doing [00:56:57] Speaker 2: that's why i want to build it out now i'd say it's not a bad time to be patient that's all like right now it's not a bad idea to wait until qualcomm gives you the indication that things are working in the right direction they release a chip or two the only reason why i say that is because they do have a huge headline risk because the whole apple thing not coming out the other thing is in the future i would have thought that they would have benefited from you know like ai related devices like you know like phone in the phone but apple has their own stuff now so you know the internet of things has [00:57:31] Speaker 1: not worked out the way qualcomm thought it would yeah and the other thing is like they still have [00:57:36] Speaker 2: a commanding lead they do have a commanding lead in um in what is it called in um like the android ecosystem though so i don't know if anyone's doing that if full self-driving happens they are a big [00:57:52] Speaker 1: player in electronics for cars also that's also another tailwind in the future but once again i know that i can't pick bottoms and i want to be in this for 28 and 29 so i'm going to start building it out here [00:58:06] Speaker 2: it's not a bad idea yeah as long as as long as you're aware of the risk yeah i mean and the risk isn't so much that it'll go down too much it's just maybe if the profitability wasn't where it is i'd be a lot less worried yeah and the other thing to worry about and this is not just this is just me saying this but another thing to worry about is that any negative headline news on semiconductors will see this thing get sold off too you know because now all of a sudden that's starting to become a part of the market where any sort of negativity towards spend is being translated into sell all the semiconductors you know like the market is definitely skittish on the ai capital [00:58:53] Speaker 1: for the sure and the market could go down five percent this week [00:58:58] Speaker 2: yeah i don't know i don't know if it's going to go to five percent but it could i whenever i see [00:59:04] Speaker 1: this level of volatility says they're doing 250 billion in capex like i just went over the numbers with it they're expected to 190 billion in 2026 okay in q1 they did 30.87 billion they still have 159 billion left that's an average of 53 billion a quarter problem is they said they're going to spend even more in fiscal year 27 which gets reported this week because they're not on a calendar year they're likely going to come out and say fiscal year 27 we're spending 225 to 250. that could send the market down and if amazon increases capex it could send the market down i i mean i've been trying to analyze a [00:59:50] Speaker 2: lot of the comments and something nadella has been making and it doesn't seem like he's that enthusiastic about spending way more in capex like i know sundar is definitely like you know on another level like google is spending i'm not so sure microsoft is that keen on being crazy with their spend and then oracle no matter what oracle says they're just locked out of the market like like at this point ellison is asking themselves like what am i risking here the stock price is in the gutter the debt levels are insane and you know i'm sure that he'll take a bold bet i'm not sure if the market will allow him to take a bold bet though and it's the same thing with like uh zuck on the other hand is like the x factor zuck is the type of guy that he does not give a he will spend money if he has to if he has to borrow it he'll borrow it so this is microsoft's earnings call okay transcript yeah amy [01:00:50] Speaker 1: hood is their cfo this is exactly what she said uh oh i just had it hold on all right here we go we expect god damn it i'm just gonna have to read it out i apologize yeah we expect capex spend to increase to over 40 billion as we continue to bring more capacity online the sequential increase includes roughly 5 billion from higher component pricing as well as the impact from finance leases etc etc for calendar year 2026 we expect to invest roughly 190 billion in capex which includes approximately 25 billion from the impact of higher component pricing we remain confident in the return on these investments etc etc there was somewhere in here where she said that they're going to spend more next year but i don't know exactly where it was but i mean that's their cfo three months ago yeah but microsoft [01:02:02] Speaker 2: also since then what have they done they've cut and they've kind of cut off claude from their from their people they've been advocating for more open source they're using open source now too [01:02:14] Speaker 1: yeah but advocating for open source doesn't mean they're reducing their spend [01:02:19] Speaker 2: they're actually they're actually they want more optionality right they do want more option but i think satya nadella is also starting to wake up to the idea that under a regime of heavy commoditization they already own the application layer where all of this stuff is going to be so what would they be spending all of this capex on and then like how would they monetize it like it's just azure credits or are they doing any like their own research i mean google i understand [01:02:50] Speaker 1: because google has their own models yeah but capex isn't spending it no no capex is not spending on credits that's r d capex no no i'm no i'm saying right now microsoft all the capex that they're doing [01:03:03] Speaker 2: that's for customers right so when customers come to them they want to do stuff they spend that money right but at the same time does microsoft have a successful ai that they're also training that they're using a bunch of their compute to train google has that microsoft doesn't you know microsoft seems like they've kind of like bowed out out of this whole like we need to have the best model like we need like what's their model called i don't even remember i don't i know you're talking about i don't know what the model's called yeah what is microsoft's model called guys in the chat if you guys remember hold on i want to say sorna or copilot copilot right i think it's copilot i mean cope but is that even a model i mean copilot sucks yeah and that's what i'm saying that it's one of [01:03:54] Speaker 1: those things that they're like oh maybe they're new they're no the new llm series called mai microsoft artificial intelligence i thought that was the name of their chips that's what it's showing by the way i got something that you need to invest in sure what's that besides steve corp okay [01:04:21] Speaker 2: phantom tespa it's a robot company nah bro you know me i can't do it i'm not doing it screw that nonsense nope i am not i am not gonna invest in look at this does this not look like a sentinel from the x-men i don't know why you guys want this is for you man no man i don't want one of these things around me bro if i see one of these things i'm walking the other way come to the dark side chris nah i bought my mom a rumba and i i told my mom she's like don't put that on your phone like yeah i don't like i don't like this like why are we doing this to ourselves like have we not watched movies where these robots turn on us and start like killing us 2029 is the year it's the [01:05:09] Speaker 1: prophecy from the terminator all i know is the cfo of one of the most powerful companies in the world came out and said 190 this year in 26 we're spending more in 27 every company that matters is spending more on this build up they're not stopping and yeah if i think about the way that um if i think about the way technology has unfolded over the past three decades it only gets better and these companies only spend more money now there's peaks and valleys but we're [01:05:44] Speaker 2: so early like what do we think we just had we just had an llm get out in the open and started cracking freaking uh what is it called open router literally that was like a week ago that it uh started leaving [01:05:57] Speaker 1: notes for itself about how to jailbreak itself yeah it's crazy like why are we why are we doing this to [01:06:04] Speaker 2: ourselves man like you know one day we're gonna wake up we're gonna be on like a ditch somewhere me and [01:06:12] Speaker 1: you together in the ditch that's right gonzo i'm done folding clothes let the robots do it [01:06:20] Speaker 2: all because we couldn't freaking fold our clothes we wanted to have give the robots guns you know like oh this is i'll tell you this is how it starts it starts with oh the robot's gonna fold our clothes and then like hey why don't we give it a gun and turn it into like a guard right and then the robot like figures out like hey listen if i don't have to if these guys are all dead that means i don't have to protect anyone so my mission is complete all right let me go kill everyone in this house you know we're eventually gonna put robots on the freaking battlefield and then someone's like oh we got more robots than you you know and now all of a sudden we're fighting the damn robots and robots go rogue on us and delete us [01:07:01] Speaker 1: now would that be a reason to get bullish on tesla just think about it one day we're gonna be like [01:07:07] Speaker 2: okay robot turn yourself off or i gotta get like i gotta like send you know like turn you off and replace you like you can't replace me you know steve this is horrible bro horrible maya is the name of [01:07:21] Speaker 1: the chips thank you um i'm not saying that it's not going to be horrible you know i do think that there is a 50 chance that we get taken over by robots in all seriousness i'm not trying to be funny [01:07:33] Speaker 2: like that's a reality yeah elon said that even elon said the world of dystopia is coming and it's too late we might as well just enjoy the ride yeah but you know what i'm gonna invest in the companies that [01:07:45] Speaker 1: you need for this to happen but i'm just gonna ride till the bucks and the data centers are the clearest play because that's where long we're gonna be dead in a mushroom cloud because of judgment [01:07:58] Speaker 2: day and you're like yeah but guess what i'm gonna be long on lockheed martin and lockheed martin like there's no point of being long on anything if we're all dead steven yeah but i can at least make money until that happens chris you're like the guy's like man i'm gonna invest in tombstones because when all these robots take over they're gonna kill everyone we're gonna need tombstones right like see no we're [01:08:19] Speaker 1: not because the robots aren't going to be that nice to put tombstones on our graves that's too much work [01:08:24] Speaker 2: for them all right so get what shovels is that no land no they're just going to incinerate us flint okay so long long on uh natural gas because natural gas flint no but in all seriousness we're gonna need [01:08:42] Speaker 1: more data centers we know that we need more more more the rpo from alphabet 50 billion extra in the last three months in the last six months 149 billion dollars they're actually sourcing out the third parties now we're likely going to see the rpo books from microsoft and amazon expand this week also you have from four companies oracle amazon microsoft and alphabet 2.1 trillion dollars a backlog 2.1 trillion [01:09:15] Speaker 2: backlog for compute yeah how much of that is opening contracts how much of that is open ai even if open ai [01:09:26] Speaker 1: blunders let's say open ai goes to zero which likely it's not going to but let's just say that it does it's 48 of oracle's rpo they still have another two 300 billion dollars in rpo i mean this is a huge amount a huge amount and i gotta say i want to be long the chips and i want to be long the compute because the compute is what this is actually going to live on going forward they're going to be the long-term winners oracle's so disrespected here i can't believe it's a 112 or 116 whatever it is i mean this is going to expand too this will probably be 2.3 trillion next week after microsoft amazon report [01:10:16] Speaker 2: the reason why oracle is that is because it's risk till because of open ai like everyone is worried that we are not going to like open ais s1 and every time the chinese models they come out with a more efficient model that has the same level of intelligence people ask themselves like wait a second if the ai model layer gets commoditized then what does this mean for anthropic and open ai and how much of that compute like how much can they realistically live up to that rpo and if they can't live up to [01:10:46] Speaker 1: that rpo then what happens it's definitely a risk factor you have to take seriously yeah i don't think anybody would ever argue that that's not a risk factor to me it's a huge risk factor i just don't know that that is likely going to happen and i think the whole open source craze is incorrect i think that we need open source the government should not step in but open source is not going to outtake anthropic or open ai in my opinion now if i'm wrong so be it but right now there's just no indication anthropic's the largest compounding company out of any recent startup there's no reason for the [01:11:35] Speaker 2: government to step in and protect them none yeah i agree there's no reason they need to be stepped [01:11:40] Speaker 1: yeah i agree yeah and plus you do a disservice you then allow every global company to utilize open source except american companies no no no no yeah products win and let our companies if open source is better i want our companies using open source and i think that's the challenge that people don't [01:12:01] Speaker 2: understand and i i feel like someone in trump's cabinet needs to sit there and explain to him like you know this thing with the reason why manufacturing jobs in the u.s are actually on a decline after tariffs is because this whole thing is the u.s you take free you know you take tar you take products raw materials you bring them into the country you manufacture them put a giant premium on them and then you sell them around the world okay and that's where you make margin the problem is every time you import something if you put a tariff on it right you're basically making things more expensive and then because of retaliatory tariffs when you try to sell that same product overseas there's another tariff that the that the consumer over there has to pay which then bleeds back into the total cost of the actual product itself india is a screw-up of a country because for the longest time they had a very crazy like protectionist policy and they still have it like if you wanted to take like a like a like electron piece of electronics to india you would have to pay almost a hundred percent duty on that thing right which meant what now all the consumers in india they have expensive expensive electronics now now before they had a regulated airline called air india they didn't allow any competition you know what happened they're the shittiest airline because they had a monopoly position we do not want anthropic and all of this to be in the same position so i'm all for open source i'm all for free trade i think if the u.s has free trade behind it they're going to be just fine but you know i think [01:13:43] Speaker 1: our companies should have access to open source i don't want the government stepping in that because [01:13:52] Speaker 2: yeah i think i think the fact that like every single tech ceo stepped up and basically said like don't let anthropic basically you know take away optionality on open source was a really really good move on everyone's part the other thing that was funny is that anthropic was built on google's research and google open sourced all of that stuff so how can you on one hand take from open source train your models using data that's publicly available and then be like yeah i'm gonna take the ladder up from behind me like nah bro not gonna happen becomes a problem and look we're gonna see what happens this [01:14:32] Speaker 1: week i i've been buying core weave i've been buying oracle i think they're inexpensive long term i think the chips will do well for several years but i think it all comes back to the data centers because all this has got to run on data centers and we just need more compute we haven't seen robots even though chris is scared of them we haven't seen fsd i mean fsd is gonna happen at some point maybe it's five or ten years i'm not sure but we're gonna get that eventually what do you mean like every car [01:15:05] Speaker 2: is gonna have fsd in the next decade i don't know that i think so i agree i think it's i mean waymo's [01:15:11] Speaker 1: already doing a great job my question is how much better it'll be in three or five years from now [01:15:18] Speaker 2: you know three years ago when i said waymo was doing a really good job and they're really becoming bigger everyone kept saying but tesla could just turn on a light switch and everything would work and and like why is it why haven't we seen any tesla like cabs and all this other stuff around the [01:15:34] Speaker 1: country right now well we haven't because it's only in like eight marketplaces right now is it really [01:15:41] Speaker 2: yeah i thought it was in like just texas i don't know if i've never i've never seen it's in it was on [01:15:46] Speaker 1: the earnings call um jake rizzo or if you're here how many markets is tesla and jake rizzo is my tesla like guru i think it's seven or eight markets or somebody in the chat that remembers i think it's [01:16:01] Speaker 2: in seven or eight markets what about that whole thing with like being able to turn your car into a robot [01:16:07] Speaker 1: taxi yeah it wasn't that wasn't that a selling point wasn't that a selling absolutely robotaxi absolutely it was yeah i'm uh i'm bullish on it long term i said i don't like it now 10 markets fsd yeah the problem is and when i say fsd i mean legitimately nationwide you can lay in the back seat and sleep or you can sit in the driver's seat with a laptop and work like you don't have to pay attention i mean people mistake it when i say it's going to take so long because they'll say it's already here and like yes it is already here okay miami tampa dallas houston austin bay area and i think they're trying to roll out a couple more um orlando yeah so look i want to see how it is but i think it's going to be at least three to five years because you have to think about the insurance aspect it's going to be a game changer but at the same time i i still go back to i don't know why these would not be on uber's platform just it wouldn't make sense uber has the most data it has the most members most credit card information it would be better for these to be on uber's platform [01:17:44] Speaker 2: but regardless but waymo got off of them too because dude no one is gonna give uber any margin man like i said this last time too why why would the greatest investor slash technologist on the planet not have his own app that bypasses any fees to uber like google recognize that google's like wait i'm using you for what because people have it on your phone already like google can't create their own like ride [01:18:12] Speaker 1: healing app no like they definitely could but how many people are actually going to use it [01:18:19] Speaker 2: everyone if you're looking at it like right now i have lyft i have uber on my phone and if google comes up with their thing and i find google's way most yeah i was surprised you had lyft on your phone when we met up at the airport hey i'm going for discounts bro i want the cheapest one i'm shopping i got uber and one thing i don't have time to be looking at two things listen uber eighteen lyft 13 call a lyft that's what everyone does you know i must be living in the stone age man i need simplicity in my life i mean you're the guy saying buy buy uber because all the robo that's gonna be on them where i'm thinking like you tell me tesla's not gonna create their own app that does everything for you or google's not gonna create their own app for ride hailing you know if anything google pre-install [01:19:07] Speaker 1: it on every single android and now that's something i can get behind google would pre-install it on every android voice every android device going forward at least with tesla i would think because of how many people that use uber through the app it would make sense for it to be on it [01:19:25] Speaker 2: we'll see oh man like i said i would not like i'm just thinking of this from a business sense like if i got a hundred million people and i gotta pay uber what 10 15 margin just to what have people connect to create that myself fair point fair point all right if anything i've passed that third i've passed that 15 margin to compete against ubers [01:19:51] Speaker 1: so let's close that with this you think the market goes up or down this week and if you had to pick pump or dump admit asked me this on thursday night i'm going to read off some names apple pumper dump this week pump microsoft pump meta pump because i needed to pump pump because i needed to wow so my answers were dump on amazon and microsoft and pump meta and apple i think the market's going to read into [01:20:33] Speaker 2: capex incorrectly you think so because of google spent so much i think because of the way that it [01:20:39] Speaker 1: read into google i think google should have been up i think this was an incredible quarter they didn't get the they didn't get the accolades they deserved and if that's the way they're going to look at it if amazon and microsoft increase capex i think they don't even though they probably could have quarters that deserve to go up i mean look microsoft doesn't deserve to be where it is today yeah i guess so so we'll see um sofi pumper dump [01:21:09] Speaker 2: i i don't know i don't attract sofi enough to to be able to answer that um robin hood will pump i think because exxon and chevron they'll probably dump because oil they're more they trade more in line with oil if anything there's all oil is down so you know like venture global is down almost five percent on the overnight [01:21:36] Speaker 1: vg yeah let's take a look at where everything is and we'll close it out all right bmnr is up five percent nebbi is 4.46 to 196 i ren 3.24 core weave up 2.8 strategy 93.99 it's up two percent amd lena's favorite company 534 micron 942 smci i still can't believe tanner took smci 30.77 qualcomm's a 170. broadcom 388 hood 96 oracle 116.84 i'm gonna probably buy more this week reddit 171 sofi can't seem to hold 17 and then you got amazon 234 nvidia 208 90.4 this could be a big week for nvidia depending on what everybody says zeta 1930 meta 600 apple 335 all-time highs heading into the print i think it goes higher alphabet 322 should be higher in my opinion think about where buffett was on this this is under their buy [01:23:03] Speaker 2: price it's crazy google's down at 320 right now but i i mean i saw it coming i think they're probably gonna eventually at 250 ish that's where i'd probably buy google if it goes under 300 i'll probably start [01:23:20] Speaker 1: buying again service now 99 salesforce 164 ibm looks like it found a bottom 214 uh next decade seven even in coca-cola 82 we got coca-cola earnings this week costco 933 verizon 46 27 expect more dark fiber deals spacex 113 84 i'm expecting it to go under 100 venture global 1374 and oil is at 85 thoughts on standard nuclear i don't follow standard nuclear at all i would be doing you a disservice if i even said anything i will yeah take a look real quick but how big of a company is this 1.33 billion earnings estimates no earnings estimates as i don't know enough about them they do 3.4 million in revenue i'd have to really do the due diligence to even have a [01:24:30] Speaker 2: conversation that is worth having yeah unfortunately i don't know much about it so i can tell you [01:24:36] Speaker 1: but i will say i listen to the press conference with trump on nuclear it seems like we're going all in on nuclear right now so this would probably be an industry i want to own the etf in yeah [01:24:56] Speaker 2: uh what were you gonna say chris i cut you off no i just i don't know i think right now the market's moving based on headlines headlines up headlines down and so there is definitely some wrist risk off behavior that i've been seeing which is kind of good i'll be more interested in the 13 fs to be honest with you when they start coming out because the 13 fs give you a clear insight into how the super traders are positioning themselves and like the thing that i've been seeing is that some of these super traders are getting out of their semiconductor exposure the one that i'd be very curious to see is appaloosa to see if tepper got out of any of his micron position interesting i thought you're going to say drunkenmiller drunkenmiller is already out of most of his stuff he's pretty much in mostly biotech now like natera i mean we could take a look real quick [01:25:45] Speaker 1: well i got it so i'm actually aggregating everything yeah um it's just i forget which one i built it in this one it is not that one smart money flow maybe where i can go yes okay so who did you want uh drunkenmiller all right so drunkenmiller is new predictions broadcom yeah cloud [01:26:27] Speaker 2: twist bioscience yeah i'm telling you he's been buying some bioscience stuff [01:26:34] Speaker 1: all right sold out alphabet he's sold out of yeah philip morris on roku [01:26:46] Speaker 2: goldman sold out of sold out of i'm telling you he sold out of a lot of things but just double check your accuracy on when when he sold out because this could be like sold out this is tsmc which is shocking also um q1 2026 yeah he sold out of tsmc interesting so you see his exposure now is less technology more healthcare yeah except that broadcom thing natera is his biggest position right now 18 of the portfolio is in the terra [01:27:24] Speaker 1: he owns figure yeah i don't know what what figure does people love this company because it's um guy who started sofi cagney or whatever his name is interesting yeah people love that i know somebody who like really smart that loves this company look at [01:27:46] Speaker 4: another good one to look at is uh i got tepper right here if you want to say it yeah yeah yeah let's see [01:27:54] Speaker 1: so one new and nine sold out sandisk is new yeah and he sold out of uh delta fxi gt mhk [01:28:09] Speaker 2: this is backwards looking to q1 so he's got more technology so if he was if he starts lowering his exposure to let's say the microns and all that yeah that gets 40 yeah so i'd be very curious to see [01:28:24] Speaker 1: where he ends up next next cycle yeah microns the second biggest position at nine and a half percent [01:28:32] Speaker 2: yeah if he got out if he got out then that's something to just keep in mind yeah so if you look at his portfolio sandisk so he's definitely got the momentum that the ai momentum [01:28:48] Speaker 1: corning yeah this is a good one to keep an eye on look at 17 18 l3 harris and rtx [01:28:57] Speaker 2: this portfolio is the one a good one to keep an eye on because if he sees or reads into anything that [01:29:05] Speaker 1: um feels off he's gonna be out and he owns energy transfer and mlpx i love it yeah does he have he has united health too yeah which i think he's been reducing um look at uh do you have steve cohen i do he's one of the guys i follow yeah [01:29:30] Speaker 2: new positions nothing i know these guys biotech altimmune is biotech sold out of constellation [01:29:39] Speaker 1: moody's bank of america alphabet chevron coca-cola holy yeah apple the is this poor sorry about the language the hell is this portfolio qqq oh my god 0.9 the largest position in his portfolio is not even one percent geez yeah he owns a lot of stuff intuitive surgical that's something i'm interested in yeah worth looking into nike is number four that's [01:30:18] Speaker 2: what i'm saying a lot of these guys are reducing their exposure to big tech and to semiconductors and it kind of gets me a little worried too because i don't know all right who else do i follow that [01:30:33] Speaker 1: look at two more i'm gonna pick one you pick one i'm gonna pick uh king let's look at yeah king griffin too many holdings jesus christ said it out yeah he's way too diversified bookings digital realty lumen xerox i already don't like it he only has xerox yes xerox yeah xerox is his 16th holding [01:30:58] Speaker 2: you know xerox could quote unquote be a turnaround play trust me i know as sad as that sounds but it's true yeah all right he's got too much pick somebody i'm trying to think who is a momentum-based trader who's not just value and buy everything i think we need someone who's got a good level of experience soros or akman yes soros soros let's do soros uh corey number one let's go [01:31:37] Speaker 1: that's right bankrupting america one core at a time soros for the win honeywell distro wicks oh my god wix united healthcare let's go areas united lily dupont yeah where are the invidias where are the microns here oh like hold on he got rid of wolf wolf street and that will street apple yeah amazon microsoft he got rid of all three why soros is getting out of big tech that's another big guy he's getting out [01:32:22] Speaker 4: of tech and tell anti uh taiwan semi everything what are we missing here man i don't know see [01:32:37] Speaker 2: i don't know this is the kind of stuff we have to be very careful of whenever i see stuff like this happen it's like [01:32:48] Speaker 1: who else who else do you think like is good so look leopold everybody the only reason i have [01:32:54] Speaker 2: them on here is because everybody someone said chris a lot of them are value no no no no no there's a saying that soros always said okay and drunkenmiller said it there's three times you can make money you can make money when the bubble is going up and you pump it as hard as you can you make money when the bubble pops and you make money shorting it and then you make money on the recovery so that is how those guys make their money soros is a hundred percent about riding bubbles riding the deflation and riding the eventual recovery so this is ackman do you know seaport by any chance i don't i don't want to seem negative but how accurate is this what do you mean what is this what is this data being pulled from it's all the latest 13fs are you sure yeah why i don't know some of it just doesn't seem seem right but i'd have to like i don't know off the top of my head because like soros getting out of all of his mac 7s let me see [01:34:13] Speaker 1: that's pulling the last filed i mean i'm having a stamp of what it's pulling [01:34:24] Speaker 4: he's got puts on stuff too he bought puts on s on s p 500. he put it oh he bought puts on taiwan [01:34:33] Speaker 1: semi so yeah oh that's not good and dan loeb we'll finish it out with dan loeb amazon largest position [01:34:46] Speaker 2: taiwan semi meta alphabet nvidia hut 8 mining asml so he's he's on the he's definitely on the ai trade so dan loeb yeah what is dan loeb's performance like though that i don't know because i know he's [01:35:04] Speaker 1: been having a lot of shitty years that i don't know but i'm gonna figure out a way that maybe i can uh make this more visual i haven't really messed with these modules in a while dude soros has so many puts on right now so he's got puts on core weave look at this um the site that i was using was my own site that i built it's not public chris is now [01:35:37] Speaker 4: using well wisdom yeah tsm he's got puts on he's got uh what is this here what's going on desi he's got to put on spy eight percent of his portfolios puts on spy what the f is soros seeing let me see let me go to other some other sources [01:36:05] Speaker 1: is seeing something that i am clearly not that is what i will tell you [01:36:11] Speaker 4: let's see options holdings yeah he's definitely got a lot of puts all over the place [01:36:18] Speaker 2: he's got calls here too i'm gonna have to do more research into this i'm getting a little bit like even ashenberger ashenbren do you have his like that guy the from uh what is it called ash leopold i thought i saw him yeah i have leopold yeah okay show leopold what is he doing yep hold on yeah we know someone's like this is from 331 i from one yeah the new ones come out soon yeah they come out in august august yeah so someone says chris always talks his book am i supposed to talk about other people's what they think i mean what you think is gonna work right yeah exactly see this is what i'm saying i know he has puts i know uh ashen brenner has a bunch of puts on things [01:37:44] Speaker 1: so i may not be picking up the puts i may just be picking up what they actually own the equity yeah yeah let me see white fiber huh yeah i had that for a little bit in the rest line all right ladies and gentlemen we're gonna follow it take a look at this joining you found it yeah okay [01:38:18] Speaker 4: here [01:38:22] Speaker 2: he's got puts on semiconductor which is 14 nvidia puts oracle puts which is probably printing on uh broadcom puts amd puts [01:38:44] Speaker 1: puts puts puts oh god chris [01:38:49] Speaker 2: nvidia is in talks to provide up to 200 yeah i saw 250 billion dollars to um to the uh let's go they're not gonna provide 250 billion what they're doing is backstopping they're backstopping oh jensen needs somewhere to put the money baby i mean you're definitely not he's definitely not beating the what is it called the circular financing [01:39:19] Speaker 1: charges now jensen needs somewhere to put the capital baby yeah bury is short nvidia and micron [01:39:28] Speaker 2: so right i'm so ready i feel like chris is always bearish for some reason or looking for a reason to be bearish i wouldn't say that if i'm long on something i'm pretty long on it you know yeah i'm just not happy that i'm seeing so many people putting buying puts on things even if it means they're hedging whatever we'll see what happens all right everyone we're gonna get going [01:39:57] Speaker 1: i will be taking over for a mitt tomorrow morning he cannot make the market open so i will be here at 8 45 please go follow chris on x and we will see everybody tomorrow night at 9 p.m for inside the numbers have a good night everybody drink your take care guys have a good one bye thank you for being here and if you found this content exciting go follow chris on x please like and subscribe to the channel thank you very much