Stock Market Unfiltered: Apple Hits All Time Highs, The Mag 7 is in Play

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen what is going on sometimes i am late but tonight is not one of those nights because it says 6 29 and i scheduled this for 6 30. hopefully everybody is having a good night hopefully you had a good lunch had some coffee markets doing pretty well doing pretty well today i'm pretty happy before we get into it read the disclaimer that i found that i couldn't find the other day i am not a financial advisor i am not your financial advisor please remember this is for educational and entertainment purposes only take everything i say with a grain of salt and remember do your own due diligence thank you everybody for being here in the streets getting those steps in marching in the first place pb is here star is here chels was fifth hollis is here joanie's here tesla granny's back from vacation cliff is here new addition to the milk game what's going on everyone what is going on gonzo's here thank you everybody really appreciate it and we're going to start with roll call and then we're going to get into a bunch of interesting stuff i held off on watching some videos we'll watch them together and you know what i listened to something very interesting today from the all-in conference pack guestlinger former ceo of intel spent i think 35 years at intel jackson jackson jackson is here he said something very exciting interesting i don't know how you want to put it he said the ai revolution you ready for what he said he didn't exactly use the words ai revolution but when jason calacanis asked him how long the build out would last he said not years but decades decades decades decades decades incredible love hearing that and then the biggest winner on the watch list today was qx oh qxo tanner's probably thinking i want it but you know what i'll let him keep it qxo i did write a new article about it i am turning it into a video for the milk gang i will put it out later oh just so everybody's aware i got three people coming on the channel tanner and i will be live tonight i am shooting something with nate tonight about core weave iren and nebius that will be out tomorrow tomorrow i am shooting with nick and we'll be talking about zeta palantir and open ai that'll be out on friday and then on friday all right nate so nate endicott invests on x and then thursday i'll be shooting with nick wealth matica that'll be out on friday and then by popular demands i reached out to jose jose and i are shooting on friday which i believe will be coming out on saturday so we're getting people on the channel and we're gonna get after it so qxo having a good day undervalued my opinion apple story of the day reaches all-time highs can it go higher i think yes can it go higher i think yes well you know i called matt today matt never called me back matt never called me back so we'll see if he calls if not we'll try him in a little bit the googly moogly 371 while oracle is at 132.69 microsoft 396 and amazon 254 and then meta closing in on 680. the return of the mag 7 is coming return of the mag 7 is coming i am with it i like i said i think that this is going to turn around and i think they lead the market higher in the second half of the year hoodio hood hood 115 broadcom trying to get back to 400. nebby has turned green oil broke above 80. not what we want to say oil broke above 80. trump is saying iran wants a deal now we did have big news we did have big news and it wasn't necessarily with iran it was with iraq the u.s and iraq to announce 60 billion dollars in commercial deals trump is pivoting energy will dominate the announced agreements and you know what supposedly this is happening friday oil and gas energy infrastructure power generation we'll see what happens the companies that are winners supposedly ge vernova bp accelerate energy exxon mobil and shell additional deals are expected communication technology digital infrastructure health care agriculture iraq is looking to build and diversify its economy you know what i'm all for it and here's where it gets a little dicey the u.s state department is approving the potential sale of advanced precision kill weapon systems and related equipment to saudi arabia 1.96 billion we'll see what happens we got uber i am out of uber as of today tko group 185 70 netflix is bracing burnings for earnings tomorrow bitcoin got back to 65 then it fell under service now 105 palantir 133 nvidia 211 spacex 135.95 salesforce is under 170.4 billion salesforce is under 170.4 billion qualcomm is under 180 zeta 2245.4 billion tesla's under 400.4 billion we got reddit under 200.4 billion so far is a heartbreaker out there under one under 18 got imd at 527 and then the big losers rocket oh no wait where's rocket lab 75 70 marvell 204 sandisk 1577 asts 57 74 look i'm not gonna sugarcoat this for anybody and you don't come here for me to sugarcoat stuff okay and i respect that a lot of you are in these names and made money and i am not happy that these things fell but i got two words no shit asts has fallen from 133 to 66 okay there's a reason it's 21 short 26.7 billion dollar market cap and the revenue in the ttm is not even 100 million dollars i mean i don't know what to tell everybody i don't get it is it it's just like a her doesn't doesn't i don't know why people think are so crazy over these names i don't get it i don't get it the fundamentals are not there they're just not i don't know what to tell everybody rocket lab or asts how about neither i don't want neither i mean rocket lab starting to come back to reality but i mean according to the estimates you're still paying 342 times 20 20 80 earnings like come on now if you got 10 years you got five or 10 years it'll probably make sense we'll see we will see now oracle could have a problem i'm not going to sugarcoat it either just because i'm in oracle does not mean it's going to work okay i did buy a few shares of spacex for my nephew yes and i will buy more if it keeps falling for my nephew now here's the problem with oracle and just because i like oracle and i am currently buying oracle does not mean it's going to work and here's the big problem now forget the debt on the balance sheet that's unfortunately not the biggest problem that they have the problem that oracle has is that if apple gets to discovery with open ai and this takes a nasty turn against open ai i have no idea what's going to happen with them having to stand up data centers and that could really impact oracle there is no question about it there is no question about it now all of their rpo is not booked to open ai i'm actually not sure how much of it is so let me ask claude if it can find out for me i actually don't know how much of oracle's rpo is tied to open ai i don't know i didn't i don't remember seeing it but it's not good apple suing open ai is the last thing that they want and if they go to discovery you have 400 people working at open ai from apple what the hell the chances that these people didn't bring over trade secrets with them what are the chances i'm saying that i'm going to say it if i was going to gamble i would say you're going to find something in discovery now what claude came back with the short answer is roughly half though oracle doesn't officially disclose the customer split here's the math oracle ended 2026 fiscal year at 638 billion in rpo up 363 year-over-year wall street journal is cited a five-year open ai contract worth 300 billion so roughly 47 percent so we'll say half so let's say 100 of that gets eradicated which i don't think is going to happen but let's say let's say that happens they still have 337 or 338 billion dollars in rpo i think oracle is going to be fine i'm not hawkish i think the market's going to do fine i just i have to respect the comments and it's a very good point and i am very down the middle and i call balls and strikes and even though i've been buying oracle this is a concern this is a concern and you know what fin bear is correct to bring it up it's a concern anybody who invests in oracle and say that this is a concern is full of shit period it's a concern how likely is it i couldn't tell you i think it's likely that apple is going to sue the out of open ai and i think that when they get to discovery you're gonna find some stuff now i'm not a legal expert i have no idea what that's going to materialize in but you have to say you'd rather it not be happening if you're investing in oracle just saying and you know what if apple yanks open ai's app geez gonna be no bueno no bueno but we see where the cookie crumbles we're gonna see where the cookies crumble core weave 76 78 for those of you that did not join us this afternoon i am out of uber and i rolled that capital into core weave i think uber's gonna do great i think uber's undervalued but you know what core we've got to a point that didn't make sense tonight so i rolled out and i rolled back in more of core weave i am full-blown ai revolution and i'm willing to hold core weave for five or ten years uber was not something i wanted for five or ten years core weave i did the more that i listen to more people in the industry and with pat gesslinger saying decades of build out not years so bullish ai revolution so bullish that's where i am at on that i don't i don't know if pelosi's out i got no idea thank you very much i appreciate the support i didn't i hope you did not do that because of may because uber could do better i just core we've got to a level that i said screw it i gotta buy more and it was the quickest way for me to allocate more capital what percentage of my portfolio is core weave i have no idea um total portfolio so hold on abe total portfolio including retirement accounts or just straight liquidity today two different questions here two different questions because i don't really consider retirement accounts as part of my part of my portfolio so i'm going to answer it like this liquidity today is how i'm going to answer that question liquidity today um 76 it closed at one point five percent if i did the math correctly to be honest with it i may not have done the math correctly but yeah like one point five percent abe thank you so much appreciate it oh look at this in the streets thank you paul pelosi disclosed purchasing 200 long data call options for uber with a 50 strike expiring march 19th 2027 i like uber a lot so we'll see we will see uh martin i agree although i don't know that a launch is going to help the stock price right now that spacex is under a lot of pressure and it's going to continue to be under pressure as shares get unlocked what's more important is q2 earnings and the commentary on the call we'll see what happens i mean look i like uber because of the free cash flow i like the adjacent areas they're getting into and i think that they're going to be a platform for robo deliveries it's going to be good all right dre listen i'm not a space guy you guys know and i and i say it all the time i'm a little biased i'm a fundamental person i go by numbers the numbers on space don't make sense to me i i don't i don't get it i'm not that smart so i'm staying away from it i'm staying away from it but there is somebody who can help us make sense of it and i have not seen this i've been waiting for all of you to watch it it's a very short video friend of basis points dan ives spacex dips below 135 i have a feeling i know what dan ives is going to say he also discusses the mega cap so i'm assuming the mag seven so let's see what he says [00:19:58] Speaker 2: he's partner at the new for a firm yorkville ives it's good to have you back great to be here get to the new firm in a minute because that's news in and of itself but we have to talk to you about this because remember before you left your prior job you had just initiated on spacex and you were one of many bullish analysts on that stock but why no analyst bump as leslie was just talking about [00:20:19] Speaker 3: yeah i look i think when you look at spacex and obviously have some important launches coming up i think the most important thing is investors the longer term ones they're gonna they're gonna view these as speed bumps because you gotta ultimately look at this is a story and we talked about it it's an ai data story space more and more is going to be a huge part of the ai revolution i just my view in covering tech for decades if you look at the facebook or the met you know the ipo what it did you look at amazon it's very easy to get very short-sighted you know this is a 26 mile marathon i think we're only [00:20:55] Speaker 2: in mile one or two yeah i hear you i mean and a lot of the the commentaries around that but the fact remains it's just it's hard to value at its core that that's one of the issues normally you look at companies and you can look at all the different metrics and come out with the price that you think it should be trading at right the valuation relative to its earnings um but this one's different sure [00:21:17] Speaker 3: it's hard look the companies like this they're not going to have current evaluation support and i think that's part of the problem when you get into these you know it starts to have a cascade effect but as we've talked about whether it's spacex whether it's you know it's tesla whether so many of the the transformational tech stocks you have to be able bars the trees to look out next three five years and when you think about the fourth industrial revolution where we are it's hard to say that [00:21:44] Speaker 2: without spacex in the sense what do you make of what continues to go on with chips and then what the mega caps are doing in terms of their trade today and over the past month i mean they've certainly woken up yeah but chips remain really really hard to to figure out i think it goes back to sk memory [00:22:00] Speaker 3: those are the golden child of this ai trade you've seen massive sell-offs since you know since really sk you know went public but then on the other side look at where nvidia and some of these other chip names are it comes down to q earnings i mean that's really going to be the flash line the dark tunnel we've talked about it 15 to 1 demand the supply this ai revolution is still third inning but the hyperscalers those are the ones the ones that are funding the ai part funding the capex those are actually the ones that are mostly in the penalty box that's why it's so important for alphabet for microsoft for amazon's we go into what's really just i think a fork in the road earning season but i continue to view it the demand storage there are always i want to talk to you about a number of [00:22:44] Speaker 2: those names let's go alphabet uh because it's so timely given what warren buffett said this was my pick uh and he thinks they're going to be a winner would you make that look buffett and he has talked about [00:22:54] Speaker 3: i think valuation you look at alphabet a year ago new york city cab driver was bearish on and now as it plays out in terms of what they're doing on search what they're doing on cloud some of the parts for those like a buffett or berkshire looking for okay what are valuation names that you could rationalize rationalize in ai you go back to spacex and some of the others maybe on the other side of the spectrum this is a perfect example that fits well in and they are at the epicenter of the build out and [00:23:24] Speaker 1: especially when it comes on sir well well well well first i'm pretty confident in how i dress i wear pink shirts i don't think i could pull off what dan ives wears to be brutally honest he he really owns it good for him very loud very loud spacex mile one 26 mile race i would agree with that i think if you're buying spacex today for a trade very volatile could lose a lot of money could make a lot of money i have no idea what i find crazy is the estimates and i showed this yesterday i was laughing my ass off i'm gonna try to remember to show admit tomorrow when we shoot basis points but the fact that the analyst community believes spacex is going to make 20 cents this year 90 cents the following year in 2028 4.69 i don't know if that's true and there's 10 analysts that think this if that's true yeah this is actually undervalued here probably i don't know i've never seen a company except maybe nvidia do something that crazy right if you think about the amount of actually we could find out right now but before i go to nvidia don't let me lose that train of thought oh going from 39 billion to 143 billion dollars in revenue over a two-year period i mean you're talking about i don't know forex that's insane absolutely insane so if these analysts are correct and here's the scary part okay the eps was only 10 analysts the revenue is 19 and that's the i mean that's the average the high side's 189 so if we go look at nvidia and we actually look at what they've generated on eps yeah it would be in video all over again a dollar rate in 23 247 and 24 531 and 25 and then they just closed out 886 so 8x in eps over a three-year period 8x a little bit more than oh yeah 8x just a tick more we'll see 8x let's go back to spacex like i said i'm not that smart i mean it's a lot more than an 8x there a lot more than an 8x that's like a 23x 23.1x maybe jake rizzo is not crazy there may be the space mob if they're in spacex is not crazy if you're holding for a long time i look lena's here what's going on lena i am going to say this q2 earnings call okay may determine if i take a position now i want to see what seems realistic and martin i'm with you i do not believe in asteroid mining you are right my friend and i know you agree you disagree with me on a lot of things on x it's all good i respect everybody's opinion and we can respectfully disagree on things but you know what you are correct here i do not believe in asteroid mining unless it's done by optimus robots because no human is mining an asteroid i'm sorry armageddon was a movie let's be honest armageddon was a movie so i also have a very hard time believing in data centers on in space unless we're going to say that they're going to be the size of satellites and we're going to put some gpus in and launch them up so actually i want to see if chris is around oh he's at oh my god do you have 10 men i want to show you something live on stream and see your facial reaction lol see what he says he's typing in a different shot than the men so we'll see anyway anyway anyway no don't start with that come on guys don't start with that he's not taking lessons from anybody chris is really damn smart don't do that i am live now if you have legit 5 to 10. i really want to see chris's take on this i really do oh he's in all right never mind he can't okay all good all right he can't anyway anyway we'll see what happens with spacex it's uh going to be interesting now we got some news all right we got a little bit of news with meta their boost in louisiana data center they're getting sued over discrimination in ai assisted layoffs 26 former employees who alleged the company used ai assisted tools in a way that discriminated against workers with disabilities those who took medical leave and pregnant employees during a recent round of layoffs and i can tell you i can tell you this okay from first-hand experience i will tell you that i am not surprised because companies get sued for freaking anything when you have a lot of employees so if they did layoffs you gotta think they here here here here's the thing you gotta remember about lawsuits there's a lot of lawyers out there that work on commission that will just contact people just to try to get a class action going or defamation discrimination in order to take a fee there's a lot to do that man you guys are lena you i don't know this is uh i feel like come monday night when he comes back on that's all you guys are going to be saying now i did say at seven o'clock i would try mad again a man of my word i'll try mad again we'll see if he actually picks up because addicted to trading reminded me oh he's there you are live matt you are live what's i like to be better than me steven well you know i can't say that i am uh better than you [00:32:08] Speaker 4: but are you around or are you busy uh i can hop on i was uh you called me at a good time i just got home him oh uh from the office and i can hop on if you'd like and spend 15 20 30 minutes maybe and then i need to head to the office so not head to the office head to the gym all right so come on i only have [00:32:29] Speaker 1: yeah come on for 15 minutes because i'm getting off at 7 30 because i'm going on again at eight with tanner [00:32:36] Speaker 4: uh you know steve if you think you're better than me you're gonna say that [00:32:40] Speaker 1: well it's the truth it's scheduled it's not like i'm saying anything that's not public information here if you want to hurt me you don't have to do it in front of oh please i called you earlier today and you didn't pick up you didn't even pick up i called you live during the day you didn't even text [00:32:55] Speaker 4: me back so don't do that don't do that all right okay send me the link i'll be out in a minute later [00:33:04] Speaker 1: you know this guy swear to god this guy's got jokes everyone he's got jokes god jokes and it's scaring me tanner hasn't even looked at the tanner hasn't looked at the link yet we're not going to call him we're not going to call him we're going to see if he's late two weeks in a row or if he forgets him and i only talked about it yesterday so we're going to see what happens oh boy matt called rock lab way early absolutely absolutely did celery trades us steve i'm in nyc midtown for a few days next week where am i getting lunch and dinner okay this is a very important question very important question before matt gets on all right so you're in midtown an area i know really well if it was me this is where you're going okay you're going to benjamin's on 41st and park the steakhouse there's two of them make sure 41st and park depending on where in midtown you're staying i don't want you to say where you're staying but there is a place on in midtown's a big area there's a place called the amish market east okay the amish market if you want a really exquisite like deli experience salads this place is so legit if you want something quick it is so good it is on 45th and between second and third incredible now you want to venture out of midtown you're going to john's on bleaker you are going to john's on bleaker down in the village for pizza a nice meatball parm now if you want one of the best chicken parms you're going to have on your life you're going to amelio's on east houston street another good steakhouse in midtown is i would say i mean benjamin's is so good i don't know you gotta go anywhere else but those are the places yeah meatball parm chicken parm all about the parms all about the parms so those are the places you're going if it was me if it was me bobby vans has got some really good burgers that's on like 40 i want to say that's on no 39th and park somewhere over there no i'm not sending them to brooklyn they're in midtown what are we doing what are we doing so in all seriousness you could ask for the steve special at uh john's coffee shop you want to talk about some of the best best pancakes you'll have on your life oh my god where is matt all right matt opened up the thing he'll be here in a sec we'll stop talking about food in a sec all right you want to have some of the best pancakes in your life john's coffee shop in midtown you ask them for the steve special they will uh they'll remember it i used to order it all the time but this uh this place is incredible oh my god the best pancakes you're gonna have in midtown in my opinion incredible you you walk past it you're gonna be like what is this place it is incredible [00:37:42] Speaker 4: oh my god it is incredible and then there was matt gonna find my steven gonna hold him tight gonna grab some afternoon all right you have a voice always been when it's right it's right while waiting to the middle of cold dark night when steven's sewing pancakes on the stream oh my god and i know 100 i don't know the rest of the words what are you cracking over thinking steve i'm gonna my appetite sorry what are you drinking a ghost a what a ghost what's the joke steve you're acting like i know what this is this isn't sponsored i shouldn't give him the free money well let's you know [00:38:35] Speaker 1: let's see what you're working with what is this a ghost that that's a new company or something [00:38:40] Speaker 4: no it's been around a while no i've never heard of it celery thank you very much uh i'm gonna take a little bit more of the spotlight because i can on wednesdays we wear pink steve you know i do like the jacket thank you i appreciate it do you like the hot sauce in the background [00:38:57] Speaker 1: i don't even know i was there until just now what hot sauce oh over your right shoulder there you go listen the hot sauce is great man all right what are we talking about all right i'm talking about an anthropic going public no no we'll get to that we'll get to that spacex now have you seen what the analyst community has put for their targets i can't say that i have steven i tried getting mr patel on also but he is uh currently laying down you know i saw him texting and everything he can't come on some of us are sleepy babies i get it you know some of us like to sleep i get it all right you call me [00:39:43] Speaker 4: at like 8 a.m i mean granted it's like nine or so in your time like uh you're on your way to work no no no i meant uh like on the weekends this guy i don't think you guys understand okay if you're not if you're watching this and you're not subscribed i will find you okay like this guy he'll call me he's like what are you doing i've already written my 15th article for the day [00:40:11] Speaker 1: i did write two articles today let's just see what i'm saying and you did a two-hour live stream earlier i did two articles today i did the two-hour live stream now i'm live streaming here and then we got uh live stream with tanner and then i'm shooting with uh nate at 9 30. i mean i'm telling you guys all right spacex you ready for the revenue estimates from the street [00:40:38] Speaker 4: matt 427. what [00:40:47] Speaker 1: i was gonna say 45 for next year 143 for 28. [00:40:58] Speaker 4: what [00:41:01] Speaker 1: does xai have that much capacity i mean you're captain space i mean you tell me i i don't know and here's the thing it's 19 analysts it's not like it's two analysts they're shooting for the moon it's 19 analysts [00:41:28] Speaker 4: oh jesus oh we got we got the shadow go already chirping i i see that i think they're jealous that i wasn't singing to them steve you ready for eps it's inside that's um steve i don't know what to say to that well [00:41:48] Speaker 1: you're gonna get even crazier you ready okay i'm ready they're gonna go from 20 cents this year to 4.69 you're talking about 21x over a two-year period in eps according to 10 analysts once again not two so you're telling me spacex trades at 29 times forward like if it does i gotta tell you man like this is a good if these numbers do end up coming true this is the easiest buy right here is [00:42:32] Speaker 4: this will be a five to seven trillion dollar company if this is true and this is before uh september when i get to trade trade out my spacex short and this is true and they actually come out with this in the first quarter earnings or not the first quarter the second quarter earnings [00:42:53] Speaker 1: call i'm cooked steve no i uh i really cannot wait for the earnings call i want to see what happens i'll be 100 cooked well we'll see i mean i just i still can't get past this all right anthropic going public what do you think [00:43:22] Speaker 4: i don't do i don't know i mean i was listening to all them last week and i'm like there's i don't know what what to even think these days um some people are thinking that it's gonna continue right i mean they already had a hundred billion in run rate people are starting to talk about a couple hundred billion dollars in run rate yep and we would just saw spacex i mean i i don't know what to think like that the problem that i have here steve and this is the way i try to make sense of this i can see it being a trillion maybe trillion and a half but for it to continue on the scale of say amazon or microsoft like you're talking about companies that have already had a hundred billion dollars not in revenue and ops cash and so like to be able to come out at one one and a half t i get it um you know a hundred billion in run rate i get it but to be in the same stratosphere and magnitude of market capitalization of some of the largest companies on the planet this quickly with a fraction of the current revenue and i get it they're you know it's not to say that they're not growing they are but the amount of capital that these guys have put into the ground years ahead i don't know um it's tough without being able to see the the track record like we get to see with with the amazons the googles and microsoft's of the world um so i mean what are they going to actually show up in 27 at 200 billion run rate like i i don't know and and if they do is that a 40 is that a 50 billion dollars in in ops cash [00:45:27] Speaker 1: am i cut steve i don't know this is what we know the latest private funding round in may was 965 billion they raised 65 billion and open ai's valuation at the time was 852 billion so they surpassed it now they report an annual revenue run rate or an annualized revenue run rate of 47 billion and anthropics is expected to report its first quarterly operating profit before they even go ipo making it one of the few ones that'll be profitable when they go public now supposedly they're having a lot of private meetings shopping this around they did submit the draft um statement to the sec so who knows i mean maybe they go public in the fall and if they do i'll tell you who's the biggest beneficiary it's googly moogly is the biggest beneficiary why is that because they have a bunch of private placement they were a very early investor in anthropic so once they go public they'll actually be able to exit on the open market and i believe that once their lockup is done they will exit and then they're going to launch a claude i'm sorry a gemini prime which becomes a claude not a claude killer but a claude equal and they undercut the out of claude on pricing and because i think they're holding back that i'm trying not to laugh right now because you're just doing your hair and i think that they're gonna come out with a model an undercut anthropic and i think they're holding back their best stuff right now because they're [00:47:27] Speaker 4: private placement i don't hate it you know and it's going to be an interesting couple quarters for for google as well because they they own a decent amount of spacex so that alone i mean i'm not sure what the last quarter's valuation was that they had on the balance sheet and what it'll be this quarter that obviously is mark to market accounting so um you have to think although we are 15 days into the third quarter um we came out of the gate in july with i think it was at the end of june that spacex went public right so that massive run up to over 200 will likely be what's locked in for the second quarter earnings now obviously that's going to have a an offset effect of what's going to happen in the third quarter but that along with uh several other people that um you know are in there i don't know it's going to be interesting but i see what you're saying as well with anthropic like this has only been growing and they don't own a small piece like we're talking a pretty decent chunk steve if i remember correctly um google killing it [00:48:42] Speaker 1: it's going to be crazy it's going to be absolutely crazy [00:48:50] Speaker 4: insane do you think it's a peak you uh i don't want to steal other people's thunder so i'm not going to say who's who's this fear-mongering but do you think it's a peak or do you think it's about what we thought it was it's just that people are maybe going to be a little uneasy um i don't know i don't think it's a peak yet steve i can't i can't think of a peak as of yet no i don't and this is what i'm [00:49:17] Speaker 1: going to say i can't play it because i'll get a strike but i suggest everybody go listen to this so i'm not finished with it yet hold on where is it it should have just came up i was just freaking listening to it so no here we go all right i can't play it i will show it it is uh pat gesslinger intel's former ceo went on they dropped this a couple of hours ago and he said the build out will be decades not years decades [00:50:07] Speaker 4: right here first i mean you're not going to get bonds 30 billion dollars worth of bonds so you can invest in 2026. right you're you're you're thinking about how do you balance the books over the next two to three years right um so by no means am i saying like there's not going to be a slowdown obviously there will be a slowdown in annual percentage growth rate because of the large large numbers but we're still likely going to be talking about 100 150 billion dollars of additional capital expenditure being spent next year um so i don't know [00:50:54] Speaker 1: i don't know yeah i don't know man this is going to last for a long time in my opinion i think we're very early i think we're still at 6 50 p.m we haven't even got to the bar yet and i think the ai revolution is just going to go on for a very long time and i don't think people can really understand i can't even understand how much the capex is going to be guys you hear that steve's saying we haven't [00:51:21] Speaker 4: even gotten the cocktail cocktail hour yet this is what i'm saying pre-dinner cockies you know we haven't even got to the bar yet what what are you hoping to once once the bar opens up steve what are [00:51:33] Speaker 1: you hoping to get i'm just saying happy hour doesn't have to just be an hour you know what i mean happy hour doesn't even have to be an hour like we are so early in this we are so early in this old-fashioned is that we i mean we may have to have a couple of them this is going to last a long time [00:51:56] Speaker 4: a little old-fashioned a couple old-fashioned steven are you gonna try the different different [00:52:01] Speaker 1: whiskeys are you gonna yeah yeah i mean we may have to get the in addition to the buffalo trace we may have to get some angels envy out we have to get some mictors out steve hasn't even pulled the menu up off the table yet guys 650 p.m who really pulls a manual you either know what you want or you don't okay oh let's look at her drink you know what you want to drink steve they might have charcuterie [00:52:28] Speaker 4: you gotta know what kind of cheeses i mean sure man sure don't sure me [00:52:40] Speaker 1: i i don't know man i mean you know these people are out of their minds and that's the thing steve even if it does pull back have you seen with the etbs for 30th anniversary is going for [00:52:55] Speaker 4: wait what what's the third pull this up steve 30th anniversary how much this is going for [00:53:02] Speaker 1: are they out on the market yet no they don't come out to september they're going for 3.99 for an etb i mean it's their minds lost their minds matt wait where did you get two from today where did you get two from if you can get these get them this is going to be just crazy but anyway matt go on um [00:53:35] Speaker 4: i just you could see a slowdown i mean you could see a slowdown in annual percentage growth but i [00:53:42] Speaker 1: don't think you'll see annual percentage growth but not dollar growth yes yeah i don't think you will see [00:53:51] Speaker 4: a curling over of the total amount of capex so to me like that still means to me that there's a lot of opportunity in playing for these companies and the thing that i believe will actually be um beneficial is as the percentage growth rate goes down then you'll actually see larger margin growth on the google and the amazon and microsoft side because as of right now and i think i'm i'm talking through this clearly as of right now the gross margins for like the microns of the world and a lot of they're they're able to expand at a rapid pace because everybody's shuffling in money well if you start to have an annual percentage rate slow down comparatively like obviously micron and all these other companies they're going to expand capacity in some way shape or form so they're going to try to compensate the eventual margin contractions is right now they're expanding rapidly eventually you're going to get to the point where you're going to have some margins so eventually you're going to get to a point where you're getting more volume out for the same amount of capex where the inflation kind of subsides i don't know if that's in 27 if that's in 28 but eventually you're going to get to the point where the free cash flow starts growing again in these companies which in 2028 it looked pretty expansive for a lot of these companies and then you're able to then ride out this wave of infrastructure growth for quite some time um so by no means do i think you're gonna have a rollover of this capex i mean i don't see it going to 2 trillion a year but like a 3x from where we are today but i could see it getting to 9 50 a trillion and slowly increasing at five to ten percent a year and that alone would get you to potentially 1.2 1.3 in the early 2030s of annual capex so i don't know it's going to be uh it's going to be interesting to see steve matt i don't even know [00:56:14] Speaker 1: what to say anymore because the reality of the situation is we have so much data and we're going to get even more data tomorrow when taiwan semi has their earnings call and even more data in two weeks now in the megas report we know meta just increased their investment in louisiana from 10 billion to 50 billion and it's a 3200 acre site i mean look you're in exploration you understand you know how big 30 i mean everybody knows but you've worked in fields you can really sit there and be like all right like yes like 3200 acres for a data center is insane and it's not gonna end construction until 2036. it's pretty well tip of the iceberg because everybody everybody has to compete [00:57:17] Speaker 4: it's gonna be pretty well yeah i don't know but i i want to say steve like this is the crazy thing is like i want to say that i was just talking to a buddy i think i told you we're trying to potentially buy into some fran a franchise um we'll see we're progressing forward with it i'll let people know if it transpires or not but he was utilizing just based off some of the economic models and business plan etc he was telling me that he used fable 5 or whatever the latest model is he said for like a couple page report in the slide deck etc that we're going to be using for uh our discussion later in the week he said he had to pay 20 in tokens how much 20. in what in tokens for what for using fable 5 for you know a couple slides and uh a report that we kind of have to put together to to present to the [00:58:27] Speaker 1: to the yes i i end up spent i end up blowing through my tokens in like an hour and i end up just [00:58:35] Speaker 4: buying a lot steven but the the reason the reason why i bring that up is because is it twin peaks i wish um actually steve it's not a bad idea um do they do they franchise yes chat look up a twin peaks franchises um one peaks what's that what the hell is twin peaks that's a tv show right for your sake yes you're married you're married so yes for your sake show [00:59:05] Speaker 1: from the 80s i'm not crazy that's a tv show from the 80s don't look it up save steve save yourself [00:59:13] Speaker 4: save yourself steve yeah yes it was a tv show only only look up the tv show good 90 and 91. i'm not crazy there you go um yes don't look up anything else it was a tv show steve it is a tv show you're right [00:59:33] Speaker 1: i'm sure it is twin peaks it's right here 90 91. yeah you're trying to tell me it's not like what are [00:59:41] Speaker 4: you talking about it's not don't do it steve i'm trying to save you i'm trying to save you just let's we'll move on uh what was it going so yeah uh what was i trying to say i don't uh you know with the expansion of people using fable 5 and stuff like that i'm currently using it right now yeah like i was thinking that it'd be a race to the bottom for these tokens but they just can we keep keep coming [01:00:11] Speaker 1: out with new models are you ready for what i'm spending my tokens on i thought you're about to say something about twin peaks again so i asked it how we can get now i'm already getting boxes at retail okay but i asked how many boxes of retail and i gave it a bunch of pokemon restock stuff and i asked if it can build me something to find them online the next step is if it can i'm just going to give it my credit card and just have it start buying them [01:00:43] Speaker 4: uh steve you're a good man good role model you're a better role model you're a better role model [01:00:48] Speaker 1: so when am i coming to visit you i don't know you tell me what are you doing mid-august i don't know same shit i'm doing right now maybe i'll uh on the way back from the [01:01:01] Speaker 4: from the tanner meetup i'll take a little do a little frank sinatra listen you could a little start spreading the news you could i want to be a part of it new york new york new you could i want to be in the city that never sleeps [01:01:24] Speaker 1: uh good old all right everyone we're gonna close it out there i need dinner matt needs to get out of here in 29 minutes i'll be back on with captain sleepy time uh i appreciate you having me on how [01:01:44] Speaker 4: much does it cost to franchise at twin peaks god damn i ain't got that kind of cash the hell is twin peaks don't look it up steve look it up off stream just tell me what the hell it is it's like a hooters [01:01:58] Speaker 1: why would you want to franchise that money's money does it make money [01:02:06] Speaker 4: i've never seen one shut down okay i have seen hooters shut down all right or texas roadhouse which may be texas roadhouse franchise all right get go uh what are you having for dinner steve i don't know i gotta figure it out because i now have 28 minutes on the clock i'm causing the issues steve i'm on the clock here [01:02:33] Speaker 1: all right everybody thank you for joining us to stop market unfiltered i'll be back with captain sleepy time at eight captain sleepy time and i have to discuss a trade we also have a few other things to discuss we're going to get into the ai revolution we're going to get his take on what's going on with core weave what's going on with the chip companies especially micron you're gonna want to watch so thank you for being here if you enjoyed please do me a favor liking subscribe you'd be surprised how many people are not subscribed that watch the channel and we'll be back at eight o'clock go get a drink come on back see everybody soon love you and make sure you go follow matt thank you make sure you go follow matt you want to see these beautiful blue eyes again and you want to hear him sing go follow matt oh host locos crazy eyes see everyone at eight Thank you very much.