Iran Ceasefire, Tech Earnings, Market is up, Crude stabilizing

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, it's 1130. No, I am not late. What is going on? Thank you everybody for being here. Rusty, how are you? Chels, how are you? Joni is here. PB is here. Thank you, everybody. Really appreciate Jets dad. Football season is coming and I got an announcement for football season that people are not going to like. Got an announcement that people are not going to like. We are, as some would say, live. All right. Let's get into the disclaimer just to make sure everybody remembers. I am not your financial advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor anyway. Please do your own due diligence. Remember this is for entertainment and educational purposes only. And with that being said, let's get into it. We got a lot of news today, folks. We have a tremendous amount of news. I don't even know where to begin, to be brutally honest. Let's start with taking a look at the market. We are currently up 175 on the NASDAQ. The S&P is up 27 points and the Dow Jones is down 93. So where does that leave us for individual positions? Well, we got some really good news out of Alphaban AMD this morning. Same with Irene. We're going to go over all of it. Irene is catching a bit. It's up 17%. Chris Patel's got to be happy. He's got in the stock draft. Marvell just cracked 200. Just cracked 200. You got Sandisk, 1433. You got Nebius, 187. Big old Micron, 887. You got BMNR trying to do something. AMD getting signs of life, 513. Doorweave, 75-69. Trying to get after it. We're trying to get back to 80. Then we're going to try to get back to 90. We're heading into earnings season. Anything can happen. Alphabet, big, big news. Maybe the biggest news of the morning. It's either them or AMD. Broadcom 381. Reddit, 185. Um, Joni. Why do you want to be just like me? You don't want to be like me. You don't want to be like me. I know what you meant. You do not want to be like me. I can tell you that right now. NVIDIA. Thought NVIDIA was dead. I thought NVIDIA was dead. It's 206.34. Amazon's back over 250. Taiwan's semi, over 400. You got Robinhood, 192. You got Microsoft, 397. You got Palantir, 133.33. Quad 3's right there. Uber, 7286. Qualcomm, finding solid ground. You got Meta at 648. Salesforce at 170. Let's get into the losers. Who are the biggest losers this morning on the watch list? It's Oracle. We have some environmental issues down in New Mexico. Apple, 325. QXO, 14. Rocket Lab, 66. Zeta's down tick. Overall, not bad. Tesla's going to be bouncy, I think. 373. I think it's going to be a little bouncy. You got earnings on Wednesday. Netflix, 67.92. No bueno. Service now, 102. SoFi, 17.15. And then you got SpaceX, 123. I think SpaceX goes lower. That's just me, ladies and gentlemen. That's just me. Okay. Of course, Starbucks coffee, staple of the show. Not sponsored by Starbucks. So, you know, I buy what I like. I buy what I like. All right. Let's get into it. I got a lot to say about what's going on in IT land. And let's start with AMD. Okay. You know what? We're going to wait. I haven't seen Lena yet. We'll wait for her to get here for me to talk about AMD. We'll start with Google. Diana, what's going on? Carl, what's going on? G-Money is here. Thank you, everybody, for the support. I really appreciate it. All right. Alphabet. Alphabet's up this morning because we just got Frozen V2 is the code name for its new chips. And these chips could boost efficiency by being integrated directly into the Gemini AI model itself. So here's the efficiency claim. The employees who worked on the chip suggest it could be six to 10 times more efficient than the latest TPU based on token serve per unit of power. These chips are ready to deploy as soon as 2028. This is Google attacking the AI compute crunch that everybody is fighting in the industry. Now, Google unveiled its eighth generation TPU in April at its cloud conference in Vegas. Same cloud conference that I cited for or the McDonald's information. The TPU for training and TPU AI for inference. And those were unveiled. Apple reports earnings on Wednesday. Custom silicon that slashes inference cost per token is a direct answer to the AI of the AI. And it's a direct answer to the AI. And it's a direct answer to the AI. And it's a reminder that the AI is a real that there is no shortage of capital being thrown at this program. We are still early. And it's a reminder that hyperscalers building their own chips is a real commitment to this build out. And I don't think anybody can say that it's not. Now, when you look at, actually, I want to bring this up on CNBC is this is going to tie right in to what I was saying is they're about to talk about models. So check out this chart that they just had up. [00:07:37] Speaker 2: But like I looked at the consensus, it was 73 billion. And that embeds very little for incremental terrestrial gigawatts that they bring on and monetize. People are a little bit concerned, I guess, [00:08:01] Speaker 3: about the delay in the launch of Starship. I mean, part of the bull thesis here is that they are able to do this much more frequently at lower costs. So any hiccup in that causes some concern. [00:08:14] Speaker 2: Starship is a really hard engineering problem. And, you know, I think they've made incremental progress each launch. But if you're a long term investor, it doesn't really matter whether we get to reusability for Starship in three months, six months, nine months, 12 months. And I would focus respectfully people more on terrestrial compute in the next two to three years, how quickly they can bring that on and energize those GPUs and rent them out. You mean what they're doing with Anthropic, for instance? Absolutely. I think you'll I think you're likely to see a lot more of that. [00:08:46] Speaker 3: There are there are questions about the sort of value of that as the technology changes very quickly and as these new models come out and leapfrog the old models and especially if they're coming from China where they're open source and they're a lot cheaper about the entire economics of the system. [00:09:03] Speaker 2: You know, I mean, I guess there are questions. I don't you don't have those. Why? Why? What's your thesis? So open source models fundamentally just shift margin percentage and margin dollars from the kind of model layer to the infrastructure layer. If you have cheaper tokens of an equivalent intelligence, we're going to consume more of those. And if you believe, like I do, that we are structurally short compute, then you don't worry so much about margins at the [00:09:31] Speaker 4: model layer. And then that's why that feeds you to a bullish thesis on neoclouds and other elements of the actual infrastructure build. Yes. I mean, I mean, look at this pricing right here. [00:09:48] Speaker 1: I do think that this is going to be a race to the bottom. And this is a very important graph that they have. Fable five is 275 and I'm not sure how many tokens. Let's just use a mill. Okay. 275 for Fable Opus 4.8 is $1.80. Sonnet 153, GPT 5.6. Sol is $1.04. So Sol is cheaper than Sonnet, which has been out for a while. I think that we are going to see structurally tokens get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. And you're going to use the more powerful ones for more complex tasks and the cheaper ones for normalized tasks. Research that type of stuff. This should make throughput go absolutely insane and scale. I think that this will limit, or I should say, this will eradicate the barriers to entry and make limitations non-existent to a degree. Because it's not going to be about the cost per token per se. It's going to be about what are you doing with those tokens? And how are you spinning up back office services? And how are you utilizing agents to streamline your business? How are you building checks and balances with it? And I think the prices are going to keep coming down. I don't think open source is a threat to the AI revolution. I actually think it's an enhancer. Just because you get open source models does not mean that we don't need more data centers. Does not mean that we don't need more chips. What are we going to think that chips are going to stop being designed? And companies are going to stop paying for chips? Never ever in the technological revolution that has happened over the past 40 years has any company ever stopped designing better chips. It's never happened. It is never, never, never happened. It continues to expand and it continues to get better. Tokens, in my opinion, are being looked at wrong. And this should be looked at as throughput and how much throughput is going to happen and who's going to monetize that throughput. I still think Anthropic and OpenAI are going to do very well. I still think that all these companies, data center companies included, are going to do very well because of that. So we'll see. [00:12:22] Speaker 2: I don't know if I would use the word bullish, but I do think it leads you to an interesting risk reward. NeoCloud, Cerebrus, Nvidia, providers of compute, whether it be to frontier models or open source models. [00:12:41] Speaker 3: But talk a little bit more about, teasing out what you were just saying about, so we get these Chinese open source models like the Kimi one and everyone freaks out that they're better and they're cheaper and they're open source. You don't necessarily think it's bad for OpenAI and Anthropic. Why? [00:12:58] Speaker 2: Well, it may end up being bad for them, but I just think the fundamental principle, I think open source software like Red Hat, you know, back in the day, now part of IBM, that is much cheaper than software. It's free. But a token, AI, when you consume it, it costs the same amount of compute, of watts, of energy, of CapEx, of OpEx to generate an open source token as it does to generate an Anthropic token. [00:13:27] Speaker 3: So then why do they, why do corporates have to pay so much more for Anthropic? [00:13:31] Speaker 2: Well, because it turns out that there isn't a, and this has been very surprising to me over the last year, that there is an enormous return to being at the frontier of intelligence. And I think the future is likely to be one in which maybe a majority of economic returns continue to accrue to these frontier tokens, but the majority of tokens processed are these very cheap open source tokens. And you can think of it, you use, you know, if, you know, every enterprise, they're going to have a symphony of AI models that they use. And you're going to have the, you know, the conductor, maybe that's Anthropic, maybe that's Brock. And then you're going to have a lot of, you know, people playing instruments. And those are these cheaper Chinese open source models that maybe have been fine tuned on an enterprise's own data. They're worried about their data leaking to a closed source frontier model [00:14:23] Speaker 3: provider. And I think that is a likely future where the U S frontier models remain sort of in charge when it comes to the corporate customers. I think so. And there is also a lot of, um, [00:14:35] Speaker 2: Eric Vichia, a partner benchmark posted something maybe 18 months ago that I thought was fascinating. Just there may be as much lock in at the product layer at the harness layer as there is at the model layer. And the products that Anthropic and some of the other frontier model companies have created, Cloud Code, Grok Build around their models are, I think, an increasing source of competitive advantage [00:15:01] Speaker 4: and switching costs. So I'm just trying to think ahead. Like, will a corporate have a lot of vendor diversity in this symphony that you described? Can it be one player delivering a suite? I think it is highly [00:15:14] Speaker 2: likely to be a multiple model future. And maybe some of these frontier models over time incorporate the ability to make it really easy, if you're Claude or you're Grok, to bring in a cheap open source model that, you know, maybe is a violinist and the conductor orchestrates. [00:15:33] Speaker 4: Huh. I mean, it sounds, I mean, I'm just trying to figure out whether companies will want to minimize complexity, minimize vendor diversity, keep, you know. Well, I think they'll want to minimize complexity, [00:15:45] Speaker 2: but they will also want the most intelligence per dollar. Yeah. One thing that's really unique about AI for the first time in my kind of history as a tech investor, being the low cost producer matters. Intelligence per dollar is what matters. And that is a function of what is your cost per token. And having the most efficient infrastructure is really going to matter. And then how much intelligence do you have per token? So to get to an equivalent answer can be K3, which is a great model and an achievement for China, it processes two, it needs two to three X more tokens. And each token costs compute watts, energy, capex, all of that. And so if you need to produce two to three X more tokens, well, you know, and so token efficiency cost per token, I think you're going to [00:16:33] Speaker 3: matters. Yeah. Yeah. As long as, as long as American corporates are able to buy, I guess, to, to subscribe for, there's all sorts of regulatory questions there with China. [00:16:42] Speaker 2: Well, I do think you will see, um, we, we do have a really great American open source company and it's called Nvidia. Their neemotron model is actually really good. [00:16:52] Speaker 1: Nvidia is now an open source company. Oh my God. Ladies and gentlemen, Nvidia is an open source company, but look, it's, uh, going to get interesting. I like a lot of what Gavin's saying. He is echoing what I've been saying for a couple of weeks now that I think this is going to be a race to the bottom with tokens and it becomes price per intelligence. And I don't think there's anything [00:17:16] Speaker 2: wrong with that at all. And I think that they are probably throttling it to a degree, you know, they don't want to scare and upset their customers, but I think they could very quickly bring an American source, an American open source model close to the frontier whenever they want. Really? Do you have [00:17:37] Speaker 3: a position in Nvidia? I, I do just, just for, uh, and then you do not in anthropic and open AI. [00:17:44] Speaker 2: I do not. I was a, I was a SpaceX investor and there's, there's been a detente lately between, um, we've noticed. Anthropic and SpaceX, but that came too late for me. [00:17:53] Speaker 3: Well, I, I'm curious where you see Grok actually competing relative to the, to the two of them. [00:17:59] Speaker 2: I think that the market really, the market reacted in exactly the wrong way to Kimi K3. It's wildly bullish for all of compute, wildly bullish for the AI and for trade. Boom. I agree. And I said that last [00:18:13] Speaker 1: week, ladies and gentlemen, I'll get into why in a minute. And the reason I'm listening to Gavin, I really respect him. I like hearing what he says. So I'm going to, I want to finish this interview. [00:18:26] Speaker 2: But I think it did really underreact to Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 from Meta. Grok 4.5 is on what is called the Pareto frontier, which just measures intelligence per dollar. And on some metrics, it's kind of outside the Pareto frontier. So not, you cannot get at its level of intelligence, [00:18:47] Speaker 3: cheaper intelligence. And so it's not as intelligent as the Anthropic or open AI models, but it is more [00:18:54] Speaker 2: cost effective. It is more intelligence per dollar. Yeah. Someone was reminding me that, [00:18:59] Speaker 4: speaking of the SpaceX shares, that the XAI investment or acquisition came around 105. Do you see that as like a critical level for SpaceX? [00:19:09] Speaker 2: No, I think the stock's going to do what it's going to do. You know, I think there's a lot of people who maybe own stock privately and are shorting the stock to hedge that. We'll see. And then there's, you know, there's always, for whatever reason, a big kind of New York hedge fund shortcase and Elon companies. And, you know, there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they're Tesla short. [00:19:29] Speaker 3: But a lot of people look at the valuation in this one. [00:19:32] Speaker 2: And then that comes down to how many gigawatts of power can they add? And the estimates on the screen might be really wrong. And then what happens? Grok 4.5 is a 1.5 trillion parameter model. They're training a 2 trillion parameter model right now. I think the cursor acquisition for 60 billion is looking very smart. That was doing 3 billion in AR when they bought it. I think it's probably materially higher. So I think there's, you know, there's a lot of variables. They have to execute on a lot of things. We'll see how this 2 trillion model comes out. And after that, they'll probably be a 6 trillion and then maybe a 10 trillion. And we'll see how those training runs go. And we'll see how those models benchmark when they come out. But if they are able to bring on a lot of power and sell that to other AI players at very high rates, and they are also able to bring on enough power where they can also serve their own models at a very low cost, I think that could be [00:20:28] Speaker 3: very interesting. It does feel like Wall Street has really put a premium on like the model supremacy over the cost so far. I think that's a mistake. Yeah. Yeah, because that's the edge that you think Elon has. [00:20:41] Speaker 2: I do think to the best of my knowledge, he has. Oh, I mean, Jensen said the speed at what you bring on a gigawatt is literally cost because every day that you're constructing a data center, you're employing somebody we should talk about this like data center builds. They're amazing for blue collar America. You know, you're employing a lot of electricians, a lot of HVAC contractors, a lot of plumbers at like truly, you know, unimaginable. [00:21:06] Speaker 1: Who read my post on X, not saying Gavin did, exactly what I said when I bashed New York State. I can't stand it. I can't stand it. I can't stand it. The amount of jobs created from the AI buildout are immense. And it's not just during the buildout phase. It is during the upkeep. It is throughout the lifespan of the data center. I just very annoying that our politicians don't see this. You want a thriving economy. You need jobs. And unfortunately, New York is not the epicenter of the United States anymore. I call it the way it is. I love this state. I still think it's the best state in the country. Unfortunately, it's becoming a flyover state and that's all there is to it. [00:21:59] Speaker 4: Oh, yes. Yeah. New York doesn't want them. Yeah. It's crazy. Yeah. Home builders can't get those guys. Yeah, exactly. Yes. Gavin, please come back. Yeah. Thank you. Yeah. Whenever you're around, it's great to have you. Thank you so much. [00:22:13] Speaker 3: Thank you. Still ahead. CEO of Archer Aviation joins us. Company unveiling a new... [00:22:17] Speaker 1: Okay. Not interested in Archer Aviation at all. At all. Now, look, I think what Gavin Baker said was incredibly important. I'm actually gonna... Maybe I reach out to him because I really like the way this guy thinks. And I do believe this is gonna become use cases for businesses. We are seeing so much from Starbucks. We are seeing so much from McDonald's, JP Morgan Chase. I just don't believe that these are companies that are faking anything. I think that these are companies that are revolutionizing how back office structure works. This isn't some little mom and pop shop. It's not some little company. And look, when I say little, obviously, if you're doing $5 million in revenue, you're doing great. Okay. You're doing great. There is no shade in that. America is built on small business. I try to support small businesses all the time. Smaller and middle market businesses are not going to prove out the AI revolution. But companies like Starbucks, McDonald's, and JP Morgan will. I believe that we're gonna see more of what was announced in the past three months. I believe Gavin is right in what he says. Heard nothing about... Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't really follow Archer. And we're in a situation where a lot of people believe that we're spending too much money. I can't help that. The market will decide that ultimately. And on a day-to-day basis, none of us know anything. Where do I buy my coffee? Starbucks. Honestly, it's proximity. I live right near one. And I have grown to love it. I mean, I've been drinking Starbucks for a very long time. Other coffee just doesn't taste right. Now, there are some coffee that are better. I actually like Wawa better. There's a brand that I buy that I make of my own that I like better. But there's something about Starbucks I really like. But there are better brands. But if it's between Starbucks and Dunkin', I'm choosing Starbucks every time. Every time. Dunkin' Donuts taste like water. I don't have any mom and pop shops within a block of me. Now, in the morning, I just want my coffee. Now, you know what? It's also very nice. Here's the big kick with Starbucks. I can use my app. And by the time I walk to it, it's already ready. So it's very nice. But let's get back to compute. The Alphabet chips that are going to infuse Gemini could be a game changer for Alphabet. Look, honestly, OB, here's the thing. I had one of those really high-end fancy machines, okay? Really high-end. And I am not talking 300 bucks. They're a bitch to clean. And they're annoying. I don't want to deal with it. It's not just, oh, you make a cup of coffee and you go. You got to clean it. You got to maintain it. It is annoying. So no, that is not for me ever again. That is not for me ever again. I happened to have got one through my connection to Bed Bath when I was there and, you know, not for me. I can tell you that. But we're in the middle of a technological revolution. And maybe even the middle isn't right, considering I keep saying it's probably 6:30 and we are nowhere near where we are going. Nowhere near. We're at the very beginning. We're at the very, very, very beginning. Now, these Google chips, I think, proves out they will spend on innovation at all costs. I really do believe that. So we're going to see what happens. Now, we're going to get an AMD. Jake Rizzo. What is going on, Jake Rizzo? How are you? I bet you're excited for Wednesday, Jake Rizzo. You got Tesla earnings. Is Elon going to sound like he took two sleeping pills? We'll see. We will see. I agree. I agree. We are literally at the time when the first light bulb was first turned on. I'm with you. I am with you. So let's get into AMD, Lena's favorite company. AMD expanded a partnership with Microsoft spanning GPUs, CPUs, networking, and software on Azure. So Microsoft is deploying the AMD Helios rack scale solution to power frontier model AI inference from Microsoft and its AI customers to support Azure AI services. So what's in the Helios rack? You got the Instinct MI-455Xs. You got their Epic Venice CPUs, Persando networking, integrated rack scale platform, and Azure is adding two new Epic CPU powered VM series and broadening its development and deployment in the Persado DPUs. Now, Helios is AMD's first rack scale system for AI and its most competitive move against NVIDIA. Now, Microsoft is joining Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle as early Helios customers. Satya Nadella framed the deal as broadening Azure's infrastructure opens so customers get more performance, scale, and choice for AI workloads. Look, the inference market, in my opinion, is where the volume is going to live long term. And landing Azure as a frontier model inference is validation that AMD's Helios can compete at the top of the stack against NVIDIA. But it's not an NVIDIA killer. We need more compute across the board in both sides. There is a place for AMD. There is a place for NVIDIA. And they are likely to continue going back and forth. Jake Rizzo, earnings has been a day to avoid as of recent history. Well, I guess. I guess. I'm not seeing anything in the stack that says AI is going away. I just don't see it. AMD and NVIDIA are great companies. I think they're going to continue to do very well. And I just have a very hard time believing the bear case. I think the bear case is built out of a bunch of bullshit. And that's just my opinion. Yeah. Listen, I hate Pepsi. I don't drink Pepsi. I mean, I'm a Coke guy. I don't drink Pepsi. I don't drink Pepsi. I don't drink Pepsi. I don't drink Pepsi. But you know what? They are an incredible company. There's room for both. There is room for both. What do you mean? Tanner doesn't go live till one. What are you talking about? Tanner's not live. Or maybe he is. Why do you? I'm not sure why he scheduled it for 12 p.m. He normally goes live at one. Yeah, I don't know. But anyway. But anyway. We're seeing an absolute compute boom. Absolute. Now, where do we go from here? I think we go up. I think that we're in a situation where the amount of compute that is going to be needed is going to quickly expand. And we're going to get all the validation that we need on Wednesday. On Wednesday, we are going to see what Alphabet does, where we go from here. And look, they're going to validate a lot of things. Wrong thing. I won't bring up the market again. I apologize. I mean, right now, the market's not that scared. Micron's up 41.50. Marvell is over 200. AMD's 513. Alphabet's 356. We're going to see just exactly what happens when Alphabet reports, because you're going to get the first taste of where the RPO goes, of where the CapEx spend goes. And if guidance gets pulled, are they taking their foot off the gas? Are they not taking their foot off the gas? Are they going to spend more? And that's going to fuel everything going into the chips, the semis, the energy companies, all the ancillary plays. And it's very exciting. It's very exciting to see that. Now, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, the street is expecting these companies to do well. If we look at the uh, let's go tip racks. If we look at where these companies are expected to go and look, I go by the wall street analyst estimates because I don't want anybody saying that I'm cherry picking data, et cetera, et cetera. I just don't want it. AMD You got 36 ratings, 28 buys, 541 is where the average consensus is. You're at 515. If we go to Nvidia, Nvidia, the average analyst as a 309 target, 36 buys, one hold. We're at 206. That's a 50% upside. I just don't see what all the fuss is about about, oh my God, we're going to zero. It doesn't make any sense. Everybody is looking at this as compounding earnings and I get it. Okay. I get it. But when you look at the earnings compounding, this is where we're at. Nvidia keeps compounding earnings every quarter, every quarter. So let's go to, we'll go seeking alpha for it is they do a better job of showing us where the street is building this out. So you got 899 this year, 1284 next year, 1606. I don't like going more than three years out because the number of analysts, and these are analysts from the largest firms with the most research. Okay. That's a huge amount of compounding, huge amount. Let's look at AMD instead of Nvidia. 743, 1346, 1888. Huge amount of compounding. So look at Broadcom, AVGO. Even larger amount of compounding from 1162 to 2585. I think that these companies are going to do very well. And they are going to be in an arms race. That's all there is to it. They will continue to be in an arms race. And you know what? The company spending the money, Google, the streets expecting them to not necessarily grow a ton right now, but going forward, they are expected to grow. I mean, you look at Meta. I mean, I think Meta is the most interesting story in the mag seven right now. You got them continuously compounding earnings. And this is what drives share price. Eventually, the market will follow earnings. And if these companies are generating more profitability, I don't know. To me, the AI CapEx spend is sustainable. I do believe that. Can I look at Microsoft? Microsoft? Absolutely. I can look at Microsoft. I mean, they're another one that is just so underrated right now. And they're another one. 1682 to 1938 to 2249. I mean, that's tremendous compounding. Eventually, they will get the ROI on their profitability. It's going to happen. Qualcomm, I certainly can. I do want to cut over. Give me a sec. They are discussing exactly what I am discussing. Let's see what some other people think. [00:37:10] Speaker 5: We would see kind of meaningful increases to CapEx announcements this week, in this quarter, just because I think that they've telegraphed through the end of the year. And we haven't really seen a big change in demand over the last three months or so. Yeah, I was surprised with the bank earnings last week, [00:37:27] Speaker 6: how token cost was basically a rounding error for most of them at this stage. They expect that to be higher in the second half of the year and going forward. But at least at this point in time, not a big margin compressor. Joe, you own Alphabet. I do. What would you like to see in terms of CapEx color or guidance or announcements? I'm going to take a little bit of a different perspective here. [00:37:50] Speaker 7: The market overall is kind of idling in place, waiting to rev the engine in one particular direction. You're bearish. You're hoping it's down for a pullback. If you're bullish, obviously you're hoping for a continuation and new all-time highs. When I think about the CapEx, what is critical is monetization. And here we go. We are idling. We are waiting for what? We're waiting for earnings. Earnings have been the tailwind. That has been the single most dominant tailwind over the last two years. And we are waiting for them. We're going to hear from Alphabet. Next week, we're going to hear from Amazon. And if you think about the Max 7, there are four of them who have had really strong performance so far year-to-date. You've got Apple, which has made a new 52-week high on Friday. And then behind it, you have your Amazon, you have your Alphabet, and you have your Nvidia. And I think those three are critically important, Leslie, to where this market ultimately is going to go in the near term. Why do I say that? In the month of May, each one of those names made 52-week highs. And that was it. From there, they've begun to pull back. The S&P 500 could not continue to make new highs. Subsequent to that, June 2nd was the high for the S&P. So if earnings are going to deliver, you have to hear about one single word, monetization. There has to be monetization on the CapEx. Why did Alphabet make a new 52-week high in May? It was because Google Cloud was up 63% year-on-year. It's three straight quarters of acceleration. AWS, 28% growth rate. That was the fastest acceleration in four years. So that's exactly what you want to hear. You want to hear the proof point of monetization. You want to hear that it's real. Later on in the earnings cycle, we're going to hear from NVIDIA. And there, it's just all about insatiable demand relative to supply. But we're coming into a really critical moment hearing from these mega cap earnings corporations. At the same time, you know, [00:39:55] Speaker 6: Friday with the sell-off, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, all declined over concerns that more firms would switch to an open source model, given what we've seen with some of the Chinese competitors to save on inference costs. Do you think that kind of sell-off makes sense? [00:40:13] Speaker 7: I think Friday was a liquidity more than a fundamental sell-off. I think it was just paring back of positioning as the... How crazy is that? [00:40:27] Speaker 1: Meta, Alphabet, NVIDIA, and Amazon are all down and the market is at pretty much hovering around all-time highs. Look, I think these are the greatest companies in the market. I think people are getting crazy over nothing. And people can't compete with these companies. Now, I will say this. I think Meta's supposed deal with Anthropic is incredible. 10 billion dollars for compute. Alphabet, I think, is the most vertically integrated in the AI stack with data centers, the models, and then the devices to deliver them on with Android. NVIDIA is the number one hardware company. And Amazon is so many different businesses inside of a conglomerate that it's very hard to compete. I mean, I think FedEx and UPS are going to have trouble competing. They're still the number one data center company. Trianium chips is a business inside of a business. Nobody's getting rid of the Prime membership. I think we will see a rotation in these companies. So I'm going to disagree with IsTari. It's not too much CapEx, in my opinion. Now, right now, the market is agreeing with you and investors are looking at where the CapEx is flowing to. It's flowing to chips. It's flowing to here, blah, blah, blah. These companies are spending to fortify their position. They are spending to expand their moats. And I am all for it, Joni. Thank you so much. Too kind. Congratulations to everybody who got one of these memberships. I truly appreciate the support. Thank you, Joni. But I think that the market is listening to a lot of people. And unfortunately, I think social media has gotten so big and so many algorithms are looking at what's being talked about on X, what's being looked at on Wall Street bets. And it is really screwing a lot of things up. These companies are compounding earnings. These companies continue to do well. Now, there are other places to invest. I happen to think Palantir is interesting again. I recently got bullish again at 109. We will start looking to Palantir later in the week because they will be reporting soon. I do think that companies like CoreWeave are inexpensive. And I think what we saw today with the new AMD servers, with Alphabet spending on its chips, it's validating how important computers. And you know what? It's an inefficiency in the market, as Jake Rizzo just said. Inefficiencies in the market is where we make money. That's all there is to it. Look, CNBC and Bloomberg are the two big ones. And I like hearing other opinions because I don't want to be in an echo chamber. You know, I'm willing to change my mind if my thesis is blown up. But the only way that I can really steel man my own thesis is by getting different points of views. That's why I read so many things on X and I watch a lot of CNBC and I do a lot of research. I want to steel man my own views. And every time I look to figure out is this CapEx spend overdone, I just I don't see any signs [00:44:07] Speaker 7: that it is. The market seems to lately be trading with a little more of a heightened sense of urgency, in particular because of the decline in the memory names and the semiconductor names. So a lot of times you have to look at positioning and you have to say to yourself, when you see that type of a sell off, when you see a little bit of reversal in the price of Apple, when you see some of the mega caps go down, understand they're an ATM for portfolio managers. And it's really raising liquidity, getting cash availability ahead of a weekend where you have this geopolitical concern. I don't read anything more into it than just a near term dynamic in the market itself. [00:44:49] Speaker 5: I would and I would echo that. I think that we have seen, you know, we're seeing I'm seeing additional questions around volatility. I'm seeing questions around the reescalation in the Middle East. This we're entering into a period where we still have a number of companies left to announce. But then we move into August and August has been a challenging time the last couple of years from a liquidity perspective. We're staring down Jackson Hole with, you know, potentially a mixed message coming out of the Fed and we've got midterms. And so I think that ahead of some of this, it's, you know, could we see this increase in volatility? Do I want to potentially pair back what has been a really nice first half of the year? We didn't see that as much right after the quarter ended. [00:45:30] Speaker 8: Perhaps that's a little bit of a lag or delayed effect. You know, I look at it this way that the bar is always high for mega cap earnings. In fact, the bar is always high for every company that's reporting, because we're seeing moves of 20 to 30%. Some cases look at IBM at post earnings up or down. So my advice would be to make sure you like the companies that you own, make sure you know the companies you own and own it through the quarters. Because as we saw... [00:45:59] Speaker 1: Let's get into inflation real quick. Look, we know that there is a tremendous amount of fighting overseas. Oil is up over 80. So we're coming down a little bit today, but that doesn't mean we're in a good place. When I built nowflation, we were at 1.73% on my nowflation gauge. We are now up 0.28%. We're up over 2% on nowflation. Inflation follows oil. Here is the bad case, okay? If we look at the CME group estimates, we're at 83.4% nothing happens in July. But by the end of the year, there is an 83.7% chance that we get at least one hike. This is insane. But you know what? It's a committee vote. Majority wins. And if oil keeps going up, we are likely to see a hike. I hate it. I really want to see what Worsh says at the next FOMC meeting. I just don't know what's going to happen. I really don't. This is not a good situation. We got Jackson Hole coming up. And CPI should be lower in 20 days. CPI should be lower. But what is very likely to happen if we don't get this situation with Iran solved? You're likely to have seen inflation go up, roll over into the June month, flatten out and tick back up, which is not good at all for a Fed that is undecided. And if you start getting rate hikes, some would say, and look, I'm probably considered a permable. Some would say inflation is good for the market because that means there's a lot of growth. I would say it's not good because it's going to start creating some cracks structurally in a lot of things, including the consumer. There's different ways to look at inflation. And with what we just saw out of Apple, there's real tech inflation, but tech inflation can be combated with productivity gains. But oil, that's a good question. I think over 85 or 90 is a very, very telling sign. If you see oil trading in a band of 85 to 95, inflation is going to go back up. It will be. We need it in the band of 65 to 75, preferably the lower end of that band because everybody makes money then. Upstream producers, transportation companies, inputs on manufacturing is lower. The prices of the pump are lower. 65 is really a good number. Really the best band, 55 to 65. You don't want it under 55 because then oil companies stop drilling. They don't produce as much. They take supply off the market on purpose to get the price per barrel up. You don't want that to happen. Now, I think that we're going to see a situation where I'm going to say, I think that we're going to see a situation where a deal is struck with Iran only because I don't think Iran can sustain what is happening. They just, I don't see how they do it. I do not see how they do it. Landman season three. Let's go PB. Thank you. Really appreciate it. Landman is one of the best shows on TV. Really is. Oh, they need a deal before midterms. They need a deal before the summer's over. Look, if they don't get a deal anytime soon, oil will spike. And if oil spikes, forget it. We are going to see such an impact. Such an impact that they may hike rates. Now, if we don't get any rate hikes, that would be fine. But we need clear messaging and clear messaging is something that we do not have. So I don't know if you caught this morning, but I've been saying that the worst of inflation is behind us. Looks like somebody agrees with me. [00:51:05] Speaker 9: I'm curious when you hear those numbers, which we just talked about, just the sort of sheer number, volume of people who are now playing the markets. And that's in addition to, you know, the president's teleprompter operator. What do you think of that in terms of what's happening in the marketplace? Meaning in terms of just animal spirits, does it say anything? Is this a good thing or a bad thing that everybody is wanting to trade on everything now? I think what it says, [00:51:34] Speaker 10: and we've seen this with levered ETFs, we've seen that with everything, is if you lower the barriers to entry to markets where there's significant upside, you will get a major reaction. But is there [00:51:45] Speaker 9: significant upside? Because one of the things we keep learning in the prediction markets is that most [00:51:49] Speaker 10: people are losing. Correct. But if you ask the individual fan, right? Okay, they go in thinking there's there's look at the plane going to Las Vegas relative to the plane coming back from Las Vegas. I always contrast the people going there are happy. They look at the upside. The people coming back have the reality of what the odds are like. Okay, but people like to put them a lot. They like the lottery ticket. Yeah, they absolutely love it. And the fact that you lower the barriers to entry and you can bet on so many different aspects of the game allows individuals to think, oh, I'm specialized in this area. I am going to prevail in this area. I totally understand. These numbers don't surprise me at all. [00:52:25] Speaker 9: But do you think that's a good thing or a bad thing long term? [00:52:28] Speaker 10: In terms of that's a really complicated question. Yeah, we had some time. Right. Do I think look, the social implications are not great. And you see this in the lottery numbers as well. Those who tend to bet are those who are least able to underwrite the losses. Okay. But in general, I think access to markets are a good thing. And if you provide more access to markets, that's a good thing. [00:52:55] Speaker 9: Talking about markets, one of the things that's fascinating right now is the fighting in Iran continues. Unfortunately, another service member was lost in the process. But one of the things we're looking at this morning is oil is what, we're about 82. I don't know if we can flip that board around right now. 88. 88. You're looking at Brent's at 88 and you're looking at crude at 82. And yet, by the way, equities, though obviously Friday was not a good day, are up this morning. Does that make [00:53:23] Speaker 10: sense to you? And when I went to bed last night, Brent was in the 90s. Right. In low 90s. Look, we talked about it last week. The fundamental view in the marketplace is these escalations will be contained. And this was tested this weekend because unfortunately, and it's tragic, we lost servicemen. There was an expansion of the attacks on both sides. And yet, the market continues to believe this. I think the biggest contrast and Joe talks about the tiebreaker is between really messy news and relatively stable markets. And that combination is very striking. You normally don't get that combination at all. And even if you look within the so-called stable markets, it's an unstable equilibrium. Whether you look at the 10-year treasury, whether you look at the yen. So this is a fascinating time because everything is in [00:54:18] Speaker 9: equilibrium, but it's very unstable. On the inflation side, where do you think we are? What do you think is going to happen? And how do you think that somebody like Kevin Warsh needs to be [00:54:28] Speaker 10: thinking about all this? I'm not into the we need three rate hikes. I don't think we're going to get any rate hikes. I think the worst of the inflation is behind us. So you think that actually we're going to see a [00:54:40] Speaker 9: meaningful decrease in inflation come this fall, come this winter? What's your... Yeah, I mean, [00:54:45] Speaker 10: the one qualification is oil prices. And regular is above four today. And diesel is above five. And I keep an eye on those two prices. I look at them every single day. But if you look at the tariff inflation that's behind us, most of the oil inflation is behind us, the AI related inflation is inflation that I can live with. Because I truly believe there's a productivity gain coming on that. [00:55:09] Speaker 9: And does that come down? Because look, right now, there's a shortage of so many different parts just to make this whole ecosystem even work. And the question is, how long do you think that persists on one end? And then by the way, there's the flip side is whether you think there's going to be an [00:55:23] Speaker 10: overbuilt on the other end. So there's likely to be an overbuilt because every innovation tends to overdo it in the initial phases. We can look at fiber and take you back to every single... [00:55:34] Speaker 9: But that could still be years out from now in terms of when you... when is the moment you'll [00:55:38] Speaker 10: wake up one morning and go, okay, there's an overbuilt? Probably in three to four years. However... So this can go, this can run for quite a while. It could. But you and I speak to tech people. They believe that it's almost impossible to define where this thing's going to end. Right. Okay. And if anything, we simply don't have the imagination. [00:55:57] Speaker 9: Is that different than the late 90s with fiber or some of these other technologies? I don't remember. And I should... we should go back and like get the tapes. When you talk to CEOs of folks building out fiber, did they say, oh yeah, we're just building, you know, there's an end state here. We're going to do this for another year or two. Then we'll, you know, we'll have laid down the train tracks and we'll be fine. And that'll stop. This is not that. This is like, we're going to be laying down train tracks forever. And by the way, we'll have to keep upgrading the train tracks along the way. [00:56:26] Speaker 10: Yes. I heard you say, you know, where is the, where is the endpoint? And a lot of people say there is no endpoint. And there's, there's a perfect reason for this. It's not just a general purpose technology like electricity. It is what James Monika at Google calls the inventor of inventions. Am I all recursive self-improvement, right? It continuously allows for more things to happen. And it's very hard to predict. So I think it's, it is almost impossible to predict the endpoint of this, other than I do believe it will be in higher productivity, but also a lot of disruptions [00:57:00] Speaker 1: that come with that. What a great interview. What a great interview. And I think he's spot on. I agree with pretty much everything he said. It's something I've been saying for quite some time. And this is why I don't get rattled about the markets. I don't get rattled about where we are in the cycle. I think we're very early and look, the numbers show it. If we look at revenue and we're going to look at a bunch of companies right now, let's look at how they're scaling revenue. Um, terminal. There we go. If we start with Microsoft, I mean, this is not a company that when we look at the quarterly revenue is going in the wrong direction. I would say that this is something that continuously compounds and scales up. We throw Google in there. Same thing. Continuously scales up. These companies are monetizing continuously. If there was not demand, I mean, I go back to core weave. Let's look at core weave on the revenue. Uh, I put on annual. I apologize. Look at the quarterly revenue. There is a lot of money to be made out there. And I just don't believe that we are looking at this correctly. If you, if I go through and look, I'm looking at all the ancillary companies, the companies that are actually going to use it. You look at what McDonald's said. McDonald's is one of the best companies to look at because this is a litmus test for what can be done with AI. And they unveiled the Arch IQ system, which is built on the Google Google cloud partnership. And it's including a voice assistant named Archie. Currently, it's taking drive-through orders in English and Spanish. There are some reports that indicated the system has processed over a million transactions and 90% of orders were completed without human escalation. So that means 900,000 orders out of a million. That's incredible. The AI inference is happening locally at the restaurant. It is allowing them to have vision into order accuracy, cutting down on remakes, predictive maintenance on fryers and grills and the McFlurry machines. You also have the AI technology providing demand forecasting that matches labor hours and the inventory to actual traffic patterns. And the staff also have a generative AI assistant for troubleshooting equipment instead of waiting for a service call. And the system ties the signals together and flags bottlenecks to managers in real time. : This is just one major scale company. We know that Starbucks is getting rid of software from Microsoft and IBM, and they will be implementing their own software. : We know that JP Morgan Chase just implemented large-scale AI across their organization and are planning to go even further and set on the earnings call. This is just the beginning. : This is not a narrative of which companies are using it. This is a narrative of how are companies using it and how will they continue to evolve how they utilize AI into their operations. That's the big thing. And the reason we talk about this so much is because this is going to impact every company. It's going to impact everybody. : Coca-Cola is going to use it. Pepsi is going to use it. Walmart is going to use it. And I think the reason why I am focused on the AI trade so much is because as the build out continues to happen, we will see these companies compound earnings, but also the lower 493 expand margins and productivity. : This is good. AI is going to be what the internet did for business. It really is. So it's going to be very exciting. It's the government funds printed to the tech AI companies. What are you talking about? What government funds are going to AI tech companies? Microsoft isn't getting government funds. Alphabet's not Nvidia is not. What are you talking about? That doesn't make any sense. I would love to get him on basis points. We'll try. Maybe we can try to reach out to him. : Maybe we can look, I think a lot of people are just misinformed. That's all there is. And there's things I get wrong. There's investments that I get wrong. But to say that AI is fake and to say that this is nothing more than a spectacle is kind of crazy. And then we had the IREN news. 2.8 billion in new contracts, ARR target raised. So right now the customer list, Microsoft, Nvidia, perplexity, figure AI, huge. Now IREN has gone from three megawatts of self-built AI cloud in 12 months to 480 being delivered this year with 1.2 gigawatts targeted for 2027. So the recent contracts include customer prepayments covering roughly 45% of the associated GPU CapEx, which cuts IREN's net funding requirements. : They have 7.6 billion in cash right now. It's pretty exciting. So this build out, roughly 9.7 billion AI cloud agreement from Microsoft when you include it with the November, 2025 one. The ARR keeps expanding and they raise their year end 2026 from 3.7 billion to $4 billion. : Look, $300 million, not a small amount of money. Once again, I think this is validating what is happening in the AI trade. Neo clouds continue to do well. We're going to get, when is CoreWeave reporting? When is IREN reporting? I'll tell you right now. You know, I keep saying it that these earnings seasons are so important. We get CoreWeave on August 6th. We get IREN on, they don't have a date yet. We get NEBIUS on, not have a date yet. So we get CoreWeave on, on the 6th. Rusty. Yes. McDonald's. I wrote an article about McDonald's. I'm a very big fan of them. Oh, thank you, Pokey. GPIX is one of my favorite income ETFs. Thank you. I appreciate it. IREN is the end of August. Thank you. And the 4 billion ARR is without the NVIDIA deal, which is also 700 million. Thank you for that. Yeah, I mean, there's so much. And this is the technology of the future. There's no way that we can say it's not the technology of the future. I'm just so bullish on where we go from here that I'm willing to invest and allocate capital throughout this cycle. I think the fears of software disruption are going to last for quite some time. I don't think that Salesforce or ServiceNow can do anything to eradicate the fears because the reality is AI is going to keep getting better. And even though I think these companies are undervalued, I'm starting to really think about, is the juice worth the squeeze? And maybe it's not. And maybe I got to say I was wrong. Okay. And I'm willing to do that. And I want to be very clear about this with everybody. I admit when I'm wrong. And I don't know that these companies can come back from the narrative. Now, that doesn't mean contracts will get canceled. That doesn't mean that revenue won't scale. That doesn't mean they won't generate a lot of profitability and buy back shares. The problem that I have with this is that you look at PayPal. PayPal has been dead money for how long? I mean, where is PayPal today? PayPal is at $56.95. It took a huge acquisition to even get the share price moving. And it's still not even a $50 billion market cap. So I don't know. I think SaaS is going to be fine. I just don't know what the narrative is going to be like. And unfortunately, that narrative drives a lot of sentiment. Joni, McDonald's is not in my dividend harvesting portfolio on Seeking Alpha. I do own it in the YouTube one that I have just been slacking on making another video on. But I am a McDonald's shareholder. It's an incredible company. And you know what? I know a lot of people are not interested in eating at McDonald's. I get it, okay? At the same time, if you're traveling, think about it from this aspect. If you are traveling wherever you're going and you see those golden arches, are you going to trust that you're not going to really get sick from the food? I think so. So McDonald's is a company that continues to compound earnings. And I think that this is something that we got to normalize. A lot of people want to swing for the fences, and I don't have a problem with that. But fundamental investing is buying companies that can compound earnings for the long term. McDonald's should trade at a much higher valuation. This is a company that is about to become a dividend king. And it is about to raise its dividend for the 50th consecutive year. I don't know why this trades at 20 times earnings. It doesn't make sense to me. It doesn't make sense why it trades at less than 20 times earnings. Phenomenal company. So, look, I'm not saying that it's not low quality food. But I am saying that the golden arches are everywhere. And you know what? They do a lot of business. They do a lot of business. And it is also a real estate company. Absolutely. I cannot tell you the last time I had McDonald's. But you know what? Every time I drive by one, I really want to go get a quarter pounder and fries and a Coke. I don't. But there's just something about it that's so satisfying. And yeah, I may not feel great afterwards, but it's just so satisfying. But look, those are the companies that I think become the next narrative in AI. And I think they become the best litmus test of how-- Thank you. Gotta run, stay frosty. Thank you, VF. You get more companies like this utilizing it. What do you think is going to happen with companies like Macy's? Companies like Exxon. I mean, we're going to really start seeing how they're implementing too. And I am just at the point where I'm not seeing anything indicate that we are going down a slippery slope and companies are not going to spend on AI operations. JP Morgan proved it out. McDonald's proved it out. So we'll see. Now, where are we going this earnings season? Well, Apple's going to-- I'm sorry. Alphabet's going to set the tone. Alphabet sets the tone on Wednesday. We got a lot of companies next week. But unfortunately, I think oil is going to take over the narrative. We're already ramping into AI and you would have never heard of us. Jay Nee, what are you talking about? What company? I have a-- I've never had Jersey Mike's. So I wouldn't be able to tell you. I got to look at the numbers. It's not something I'm interested in. Same way I wouldn't be interested in Subway or any of those companies. Only because it's-- For the wrong reasons, okay? I would never go to a Jersey Mike's because I would-- I go to local delis. Oh, I agree with that. Labor cost is going to go absolutely lower. I mean, listen. We're still in the infancy. We don't-- and here's the big thing about Tesla. The only thing I care about on the earnings call-- well, I should say two things. When is full self-driving coming? When is humanoid robotics coming? Because those are the two next big iterations for the AI revolution. I do agree with Take-Two. Take-Two is actually part of my thesis for DoorDash and Uber. I think come November 19th, they're going to have a lot of people increasing the utilization rate on DoorDash and Uber for Uber Eats. And I think GTA 6 is going to really transcend video games as we know with microtransactions. They would be crazy if they don't implement large-scale transaction on a micro basis. They'd be absolutely insane if they don't do that. Absolutely insane. So we'll see what happens with that one. But I am bullish on Take-Two. I think it's going to be a game that is here for over a decade. And I think a lot of people are wrong on how much money is going to be spent on it. I think that you are going to see, in my opinion, coming from somebody who would spend on these types of games, I can see people spending $50 a month or $100 a month to make their game experience better. I think a lot of adults will. So we'll see. Yeah, if you live in the Tri-State Deli, any local deli is going to be Jersey Mike's. I'm with you. I am with you. Robotics starting 2027. I hope so. Yeah, online isn't going to be here for a year. They're notorious for that. See, I disagree. I really do believe that gamers are going to spend. But we'll see. We'll see. All right, Joni, what do you mean by that? Doesn't AI learn in virtual reality? I mean, I think we get virtual reality in augmented, but I'm not sure where we go from there. And what if GTA is the real metaverse? I mean, that could be. I mean, okay. So I got to tell you, you guys are going to find this crazy, okay? There, I was looking at a lot of GTA 5 stuff, trying to figure out like how big the GTA 6 is going to be. Okay, check this out. So there's a streamer right now, JYNXZI. 6.68 million subscribers. Streaming that he's not stopping until he beats the game. He has 31,974 people watching him play GTA 5 right now. How crazy is that? Why would we think that GTA 6 is not going to be the biggest thing ever? I mean, this guy's got over 6 million subscribers and on a live stream just playing GTA 5, over 31,000 people. He's a huge streamer. I don't really follow it. I was just looking. That's his normal viewers. Okay. Listen, I have no idea who he is, but I'll tell you this. I think that this is more validation of how big GTA 6 will be. And Take 2 could be at the very tip of the spear for how big their revenue could grow. Check his Twitch viewers. I'm a little scared too, Colton. Why don't you tell me how many he's got? Yeah, Joni, I mean, we watch the stock market. Other people watch people play video games. I mean, it is what it is. But I think we should look at is, is this an opportunity to invest and make money in video games? And that's how I'm looking at this. So if we look at Take 2, you know, on a quarterly basis on revenue, it's doing the right thing, but it's not really, it hasn't really gone anywhere. I mean, one point, they have not, call it 1.4 billion in Q3 2022. And there are maybe 1.7 right now. I think we're going to see exponential growth with GTA 6. And I think that this is going to be a momentum trade that really works out. I'm just not sure how big the TAM is going to be. Yeah, I agree. There could be issues because of the volume. I mean, where does the analyst community have this going with earnings? Let's say. TTW. Take 2. See, I, I don't believe this. No, no, no way. Nobody's convincing me. No way. This is an inefficiency. Take 2. There is just no way that this is going to plateau like that. I don't believe it. Especially if online becomes a subscription base. No way. So you're telling me. So here's the worst part. And look, I'm not, I don't have any information. Okay. And while there's not many analysts, let's just roll with this for a second. So you're telling me they spent all this money to get to 8.59 billion. And then they're just going to kind of stay flat until 2033. No, hell no. How does that even happen? How? I think this could be a huge inefficiency in the market. They need to figure out a way. And I think they have with microtransactions. And I'll tell you this from somebody who doesn't have the time to really play a lot. I would be fine paying more money so I can get all the things in the game to make my game experience different. So we'll see. Yeah, I think the growth is way too low on this. I really do. Especially with microtransactions. Absolutely. Look, when I played GTA V, I paid for the cartel market thing to get started. I didn't have time to grind. Absolutely. Why wouldn't I do that? You know, like I've been down that road. I was a hardcore gamer at one point. I don't have that time. Yeah, but you got to remember something. Real gamers are in their teens and early 20s. I'm not. I don't have that type of time. If I had that type of time, trust me, I would be putting these people to shame. I don't have that type of time anymore. So it is what it is. At the same time, these games have to be hosted. And I'll tell you, they're probably utilizing AI for a lot of things. They're probably utilizing the big data centers for a lot of things. So, you know. I happen to think it's going to do very, very well. All right. Let's look at how the market is interpreting things. SanDisk is up 6%. I-Rent is almost up 20%. Very good. We'll look at the stock draft in a minute. Let's see how the market's going. Nebius, 184. Broadcom, 381. AMD, 510. Reddit, 186. Amazon, 252. I think Amazon's a steal here. I think they're a steal. Microsoft's over 400. Palantir is a... I can't say it's a sleeper, but I think it's going to do very well. We got CoreWeave up a little. Huh. Huh, huh, huh. Meta. It's going to be the return of the Zock next week. I'll tell you that right now. Stop it. You showed a picture of my haircut to your barber and he gave you my haircut? Stop it. That is too funny. Here's the real question. Do you like it? That's what I want to know. Did you like it? Moe really committing to red now. What do you mean? I'll take a look at Moe in a minute. NVIDIA, 203.97. I don't like it. Service now, 103.77. All right. You guys wanted me to talk about Qualcomm. I will talk about Qualcomm in about two minutes. I promise. Okay. I promise. Crude, 8192. We're going to take that. I like it. It's better than where it was. Hopefully, it starts falling a little bit. Who are my losers? Oracle, Apple, QXO, Netflix. All right. Let's roll into Qualcomm and then SpaceX. Here's the problem with Qualcomm. And I think that this is an incredible company. On a revenue basis, they're not doing anything. You look at the $10 billion line. They're not. It's been since 2021 when they cracked it. They haven't been able to get to 12.5. Dude, Asmongold, I don't get it. Crazy. That guy has so many viewers. Crazy. I should become a video game streamer. That's what I should do. Shine. No, you did not. That's incredible. Incredible. Qualcomm is one of those companies. Okay. Qualcomm is one of those companies that we're going to go into it from a different view. Okay. Let's do this. Let's look at their profitability so I don't have to do math in my head. Talk about a company that is so mistreated. The market cap is $181 billion. Okay. Pure dollars and cents. I know that the growth is not there. Let's look at them against Marvell. Marvell is roughly the same size. They're within $8 billion of each other. Okay. They're within $8 billion. Qualcomm does 5x the revenue. The revenue growth sucks. The CAGR sucks. And the EPS growth sucks. I get it. But here's the problem. ROE is 40%. ROIC is 20%. Better return on equity and invested capital. Addicted to trading. What is going on? You look at revenue. Like I said, about 4 to 5x. You look at gross profit. 5 to 6x. Marvell's. EBITDA. 5x. Operating income. 7x. 8x. Net income. 4x. Margins. Better margins. Almost across the board. And you want to talk about cash. Why would you pay for $2.1 billion cash from operations and $1.7 billion in free cash flow? When you can basically buy, I don't know, seven to eight times the free cash flow for roughly $8 billion more of market cap. You look at the multiples you're trading. Paying 14 and a half times free cash flow for a business is insane. You go on the private market, that's not normal. Now, I think Qualcomm is one of the most undervalued chip companies in the market. The problem is I don't think that it's going to turn around in the eyes of the investor for several years. And I really do believe it's going to take the 2028-2029 shipments of Microsoft and Meta CPUs for their servers to really have the AI narrative take hold. But you're getting a great company at a low multiple and they could be one of the biggest winners when it comes to 6G technology. So, I happen to like Qualcomm. I'm a big fan. I don't own it yet. You're also getting – what dividend are you getting with Qualcomm? And let's look at where the analysts have this. You're getting a 2.14% yield that you can slam right back into the investment. And on an earnings perspective, they're really expected to ramp in 2028. So, you're buying now for the future. Question is, can they get the market excited before that 2028 ramp happens? I mean, you look at where – and I know it's only six analysts, but they really believe these are the critical years, 28 and 29, for their revenue expansion from the Microsoft and the Meta deals and anybody else that they can sign. So, I'm with you. I happen to think Qualcomm is the one that I would be going after right now if I was going to be adding a company that I don't currently own in the semiconductor space. That would be mine. And look, Qualcomm is just one of those companies. It's a great company. It's a really, really, really, really good company. I spoke about Jersey Mike's before. I'm not into it. Addicted to trading. Yeah, listen, Marvell is a great company. But the problem is a lot of it moved when Jensen said it should be a trillion-dollar company. I mean, I think – I don't think Jensen should have said that, but you know what? It is what it is. I go by fundamentals, and I think we're paying an inexpensive price on Qualcomm, and I think we're paying a little bit of an expensive price on Marvell. But you know what? There's room for both of them, obviously. But I do believe that we're in a situation where we're going to see the AI trade continue to validate that we need more of everything from chips to memory. So we'll see. I'm very excited for Wednesday. I'm very excited for Alphabet showing us where they're headed because I think it's going to validate a lot of things. I don't know when the next dividend video is coming. I've got to figure out time to really, really buckle down and get it out. I'll try to get it out this week. We'll see. I like Pepsi. I took it in the stock draft. Let's look at the stock draft. Matt's still number one. Tanner, me, Chris, Amit, Jason. Wow. Wow. How about this? There's not. Well, I guess I would take I would take Qualcomm or Nebby is here. Maybe I can trade for Qualcomm. What's Qualcomm's down? What? Twenty three point nine percent for him. You know what? That may not be a horrible trade. I can get him to do MP for Qualcomm. No, it's funny. Everybody thought I was crazy taking Baba. And it's my third best winner right now. Third best. Baba is one of those companies where. If you believe AI is real. Look, China is the second largest economy. China is going to be. I mean, I hate to say this with the amount of nuclear that they're standing up. Baba is going to do well. They're just going to be throwing data centers up across the board. So. I happen to like it. It could be the best company I picked at the end of the year. We'll say. And I think a lot of my names can come back. You're right, CJ. Netflix is destroying me. And not just one, but two stock drafts. I'm with you. I get it. I think Netflix will come back. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. Don't be surprised if Zeta gives me a double, though. I really like Zeta here. I think Zeta is one of the best companies. Risk reward. And I'm very excited for it. I'm very excited for Zeta. What is. What is a myth have? See, I wouldn't take any of these companies. Bloom Energy. Let's get into that. Somebody asked me about Bloom Energy before. I'll give you my live thoughts on this. And I don't know shit about Bloom Energy. Okay. They are a. Called $60 billion market cap company. $2.4 billion in revenue. The ROE and ROIC suck. I mean. Right off the bat, I think this is a horrible valuation. Horrible. I mean. Absolutely horrible valuation. Cash from operations. No bueno. I'm not going to learn a lot about it here. Let's. Let's go tip ranks real quick. And then I want to look at the forward estimates. Bloom Energy. Where does the analyst community have this? 285 and it's 202. So the analyst community believes in this company. Okay. So that's the first thing. Analyst community believes in it. So now I got to think about this from a forward basis. And if I look at it from a forward basis. Huge amount of earnings growth. And if I am linking about my three to five year thesis. It's inexpensive going forward. Expensive now. Inexpensive going forward. But that's assuming that they can compound earnings. Huge amount of revenue growth. So where was this company? I know that this went. Parabolic. Got to 351. All right. It's down a lot. 45% or so. Like I said. I don't know much about Bloom. So. Short report came out. They refuted it. Oak Trees committing 1.7 billion. They're partnering with Brookfield to expand AI infrastructure partnership by 5X. I got to look more into them. Let me. Bear with me. Let's go to their website for a sec. Bloom Energy. And of course. We got to share it like this. All right. Data center solutions. Access to power. That is a major limitation. Blah, blah, blah. Power is still the bottleneck. But it's no longer the only thing that can delay a project. Core Weave's a customer. Oracle, Equinox, Brookfields. On-site power as a primary energy source supplemental to the grid by 2030. And what exactly do they do? I've never really looked into them. Delivering premium power. Where's investors? Here we go. Got presentation. I can flip through. There we go. All right. Let's see what we can learn. Global footprint. So that's global company. 500 paddings. So they produce on-site power by converting natural gas into electricity without combustion. Huh. Thank you very much, Thomas. Appreciate it. Appreciate it. You know what? This is exciting. I've never really looked into it before. But like Addicted to Trading said, if there was ever a time to get into bloom, if you missed it, it's when the bears are coming out. This has fell 45%. I'm going to keep my eyes on it. I will keep my eyes on it. I may become a believer in bloom energy, ladies and gentlemen. We'll see. My thoughts on Netflix. I think they got to buy TKO Group. My opinion. I think they got to buy TKO Group. I think they got to really get into live sports. I think they got to get into live entertainment. I don't think that they can continue to really grow without overhauling their model. That's just my opinion. The content game, everybody wants new content and fresh content. They have to get into that game. They have to. I just don't see how they don't. Monopoly, baby. Monopoly, baby. That's right. Finding a land dweller on 47th and 5th right now. Pretty good. You go to the Diamond District. You'll find it. You may not be paying what you want to pay, but you'll find it. But I think that's really what it comes down to. Are you willing to pay what you want to pay? You know? Yes. TKO is partnered with Paramount, but you know what? I still think Netflix should acquire them because they're inexpensive. Why buy TKO? Because Netflix, in order to grow, needs live entertainment. And I think that TKO controls two brands that are so much more valuable, WWE and UFC. I just, I am very bullish on that. You're buying Hasbro if I get accepted? Oh my God. Don't sleep on Hasbro. Magic the Gathering is legit. Absolutely legit. Look, I get it. Netflix built their business a certain way, but that doesn't mean they're going to be able to compete in the future. And we'll see. I could be wrong on that. TKO does pay a dividend. They do. TKO group. [01:43:44] Speaker ?: TKO group. [01:43:45] Speaker 1: Yeah. 1.71%. Doesn't suck. Oh, Hasbro. Yeah. Hasbro. Pays. Three and a half percent. And they're down from their recent highs. So I'm a big fan. Big fan. Big fan. So, Joey, um, people have tried to compete with the WWE. People have tried to compete with the UFC. They just can't. It's been proven. They just can't. And Zufa boxing could take over the WBA and the IBF. I'm sorry, WBC and the IBF. They really could. So let's get into where we are. Man, I, Ren is really moving. It's back over 40. Congratulations. Thank you. I appreciate it. Yeah. Now, Flation, I think it is pretty good. If you have any suggestions, let me know. BMNR is up. Sandisk is up. MU. Trying to get over 900. Slap boxing is not part of TKO group. It's a separate company owned by Dana White and the Fertitta brothers. Nebius, 184. Broadcom, 380. AMD, 508. Salesforce, 174. Microsoft, over 400. Not a bad day, ladies and gentlemen. Service now ticking up a bit. CoreWeave, 74. Meta, 650. Hoodio, hood, hood, 100. Uber, 7264. NVIDIA, 203. I don't hate it. Pretty good day. SoFi, 1725. We'll get into SoFi tomorrow. Realty Income, 65. Netflix is down. Oracle, 122. And QXO just crossed over 14 in a bad way. Look, oil going up is not good for QXO. It just isn't. It could delay rate cuts, impact cost of capital, impact margins because transportation costs go up. Just not good. Steve, I am so worried about Google earnings, not because of Google, but what if they are the first to cut CapEx? So, Joni, this is what I'm going to say to you. If they're the first to cut CapEx, I will be completely shocked and I will have to rethink my thesis. I do not believe that they will be the first ones this time around. Are they the first ones in the future? But for all intents and purposes, unless they decided to utilize the capital that they just raised for buybacks, I think that they're going to really, really blow it out of the water next year. So, we'll see. We will see. I don't think that we need to worry about that right now. I think that we're in a situation where these companies are going to keep spending. For the time being, we'll see. We will see. All right, everybody. I'm going to get going. I'll be back with you later tonight. I'll be doing a market wrap-up and Christopher Patel and myself will be going over Alphabet, ServiceNow, and a couple other companies because they're reporting this week. Tonight at 9. Thank you very much. I really appreciate it. You guys are the best. I love hanging out with you. I'll see everybody later tonight about 6.30. Have a great lunch. Make sure you have some milk and cookies at some point today. Thank you. And if you're going over to Tanner's stream, spam him with a bunch of Zs. Thank you very much. I'll see everybody later today.