POSSIBLE CPI INFLATION SCARE TOMORROW! VIX is Predicting the Selling Resumes Tuesday or Wednesday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: And the S&P 500 up 173 points, up 2.35% to close at 75, almost 75.50. NASDAQ Composite up 2.74%. NASDAQ 100 up 3.4%. Now, remember, the NASDAQ 100 drop by over 15%. I think it's around 15.25%, if I recall, in this bounce. And the Russell up 3.15%. Quickly, NVIDIA down sharply, rebounding well off the lows as the CEO is being investigated by NVIDIA, having an affair with a Chinese spy. China denying that, of course. This is like Feng Feng several years ago. This was exposed by the government investigating her as a spy. So now this has come to light. And again, we've had the cell signals on NVIDIA since the top with the black candlestick. And again, the bearish moving averages, the bearish divergences, and all the rest of it. NVIDIA got a hollow red candlestick. It was down about 9% at the lows, approximately 9%. It ended down 4.25%, 4.27%. And NVIDIA is down 30.20%. Wait a minute. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We were told this wasn't going to happen. We were told this wasn't going to happen. And again, continues to hold below the 200. The 10 has now dropped below the 200. The 20 and the 10 are both below the 50. Eventually, this 50 has got to come down and drop below the 200, validating a bear market. But a hollow red candlestick here. We'll be watching what becomes of all this with NVIDIA, that the rising wedge did play out. And again, I thought the herd, the crowd, they told us this wasn't going to happen. We're down over 30% with NVIDIA. Semiconductors dropped more than 40%. We were told this wasn't going to happen. Semiconductors rebounding. Again, told you they were very oversold. We rebounded here with SMH. We rebounded by 5% and holding below that 200 period. SOXX, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF, it was up 7.5%. And again, way below that 200 period. The 10 is crossing below it. As I said, I believe that we are in the crash wave three for the semiconductors and for the AI stocks. This is a daily chart for SOXX. Essentially, the 50 will make its way down here to cross below the 200. See if we get a larger rebound here or push lower before we get any kind of meaningful bounce. Over the last, well, the previous five weeks, we dropped for SOX. We dropped 34.3%. And last week, we were down 13.3%. Right now, we're up 7.5% to start the week off. And we've lost from the top back in June. We've lost over 40%. And we were told this wasn't going to happen. So here we are getting a bounce after five weeks lower. I talked about this over the weekend. Talked about it a little bit last week. Going into the weekend and told you, expect that we're going to have an inflation scare. And I was looking for that last month or this month with the CPI. That we've had a big sell-off. While I still think you got a good shot, it's going to happen. Did get a significant sell-off before the CPI data. Keep that in mind. So I could be wrong about that. We got a sell-off going into the CPI. Now, we could get a bigger one, get a bigger sell-off. I just want to continue to point out here that we've lost 34%, over 34% in five weeks. It's been a very, very sharp decline. Lost a 50-week. And we could just be backtesting it. NASDAQ confirmed a double top. And we could just be getting a throwback. We'll be watching to see if we sell off at the CPI. I still think we're going to. But I'm telling you, I could be wrong. Because we've already gotten a sharp decline ahead of CPI. But I still think it has a good shot at playing out, as I've talked about. Now, crude oil has moved to a new low. I called last week. I called a bottom here at the 200-period moving average. I was wrong. I got every bottom right. This one, this one, this one, this one. And I told you, at some point, I'm going to be wrong. But I stuck my neck out and moved to a new low today. We're down 4.5%. We were down over 5% at the lows. Hopes of the deal. There's not going to be any deal with the U.S. and Iran. Now, oil is selling off. We've got Trump meeting with Qatar's prime minister. Again, they've been trying to mediate a deal, which is not going to happen. Secretary of State Rubio sees little hope of a diplomatic breakthrough to the Middle East deadlock. He's, Iran, has given a laundry list of outrageous and ridiculous demands. And again, they're not going to agree to something that the United States is going to, that's going to be acceptable to the United States. That's why, again, Trump's going to go forward with this. He's likely going to do it before the Democrats take control of Congress come early January. Because the Democrats are going to move in. Again, the House controls the purse. They're going to move in and try to do everything to put a stop to this war. So it's likely Trump's going to resume military combat operations and finish the war, probably try to finish it and wrap it up by January or shortly thereafter in all likelihood. This is going to spike crude oil. Again, crude oil has not yet topped. Audit cycle is always the last peak. Republicans, they're going to give us a spike in oil and give us an oil shock. The Democrats are going to kill the AI trade in investigating AI companies and climbing the brakes on the AI data centers, throwing the goose that laid the golden egg. So both political parties are going to do things that are going to give us a very, very ugly bear market. And again, I am not in either one of these political parties. I think both parties are corrupt. Just telling you what is likely going to be the case. Now, if the inflation comes in hot, we could see a rebound with the 10-year yield. It's pulled back, I warned you. And why is the 10-year yield pulling back? Because, you know, move away from risk assets, going into the bond market, treasuries and yields have an inverse relationship. So, I mean, the yields come down with this negative diversions, which I've talked to you about at the peak. We've got the breakout of the triangle. We've got the breakout to a new high. I warned you all this was going to happen. And then we've got the pullback that I warned you was going to happen. We're going parabolic. And we're likely going to see another push higher. It will eventually rattle the market further. We hit a high at 5.3%, just over 5.3% on the 10-year yield. When we move into the 5.5%, 6.5% or 5.5%, 6% area, it's going to really rattle markets. But it will likely produce a top. It will go higher than that, but you're going to get a negative divergence that will eventually form. The inflation scare. Crude oil is still going to go make a new high. We're going to have the inflation scare. We're already witnessing the AI bubble bursting. We're getting a bounce. And later, we'll have a black swan event. Later on, after the recession arrives and after the Fed is doing jumbo cuts, we'll have the commercial real estate crisis spill over into a banking crisis. And that will be the black swan later in the recession. Kind of like the Lehman moment. This is the dot-com bubble 2.0. It's the AI bubble bursting combined with inflation scare combined later a banking crisis. You've got the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis all rolled into one. Now, tomorrow, we're going to get the CPI. And I've told you I thought that we'd get a CPI inflation scare last month or this month. I've talked about this over the weekend. And in 2000, there was a dramatic drop. 2007, we saw a drop surrounding it. It was associated with the bigger bear market, the crash to kick off the bear market. And I talked about that over the weekend. Both times, you had an inflation scare. I don't think this time will be any different. I think there will be an inflation scare. And I do think crude oil is still moving higher. We're going to get the CPI. And the year-over-year, CPI, the headline number for October that we're going to get here in November tomorrow morning, is supposed to come in at 3.9%. 3.9% higher than the 3.7% that we previously got. Now, no crude oil was up for the entire month of October. Could this number come in hotter? Yes, this number could come in hotter. We got the big sell-off in 2000, the CPI. We got the super hot report in 2000 that gave us a big sell-off. Do we get that here? We shall soon see. But as I've said, we've had a sharp sell-off with NASDAQ. And AI stocks and semiconductor stocks are now trying to get a bounce. But they may go lower before they get a bigger bounce. Now, we also will have the core, the core year-over-year data, which is expected. And this excludes energy. It's expected to come in at 2.7, previously at 2.6. So we'll be watching how this unfolds. And then Friday, by the way, we're still in earnings season, so we still have potentially more concerns about AI stocks. But again, I've gotten the sell-off with earnings, as I warned you, that I thought would be the case. We're going to get the PPI, wholesale inflation, on Friday. It's expected to come in at 6.6% higher than the 6.3%. So we'll be watching these inflation numbers tomorrow morning and then later on Friday. I still think we're going to have an inflation scare. But as I've said, we've had a significant sell-off ahead of the inflation data with all the other things I've talked about. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but I still think it's likely going to be the case. And I have the guts to tell you what I think. Most people don't. Please support the channel with the link directly below. That allows me to be able to provide you this information. If you could take a moment to partner with me, I'd appreciate that. Most channels have sponsors. I turn those offers down. If you get a channel, they constantly contact you. I don't need to respond anymore. I'm not here to sell you something. Send you to some website. I just ask that you partner with me. Do what you can to help out. Anything helps. Follow the link below. It'll take you to a secured site and you can donate any amount you want. If you could take a moment to do that, to respond, I would really, really appreciate that. And letting me know that you want this information and you like this information, please take a moment to do that when you finish watching the video. If you could take a moment to step up to the plate and help out today, I would greatly appreciate that. I thank you for your consideration for that. Now, let me just zoom in here. And I just want to say the VIX has been making absolutely incredible calls. The VIX has been predicting the playoffs and the rebounds in recent days, doing it with great accuracy. Now, Wednesday, it dropped by over 20% down to the 50 period. That's this red bar you see right here. And it predicted that the S&P 500 was going to have a sharp sell-off within the next two days on Thursday or Friday. It got it. We saw a big sell-off in the market on Thursday. And that gave the VIX this big surge of 69% on this big wide-range bar. That then predicted on Thursday that the S&P, either Friday or Monday, would have a bounce. The bounce started with a bullish inside day on Friday. The VIX was correct and a big rally continued today. The VIX was right. Based on historic closes of greater up and down of 20%. Now, the VIX is making another call, another prediction with this big wide-range bar that we got today. The sell-off last Friday was only 9%. Today, we dropped by 22.31%. The VIX is now predicting that in the next two days, tomorrow with the CPI or the day after, the S&P is going to sell-off. I still believe we're going to get a CPI sell-off. And I talked about the two ways it can happen, where it's part of the larger cash move to kick off the bear market, like in 2007, or a drop, a significant drop, like we had in 2000. The VIX is telling you and telling me that there is now, because it dropped by 22%, more than 20%, 22%, is telling us that there is a 95% chance in the next two trading sessions, Tuesday or Wednesday, that the S&P will resume the sell-off. The 5% chance that signal fails, but that's based on historic closes. The CPI have gone through and calculated with all of the data, the historical closes. So we'll see what happens. Do we continue and start moving above 30, readings of 30, and start moving above the high over here that we got with the first sell-off earlier in the year? I believe that we will exceed that level in the near future. If we get an inflation scare with the CPI, well, then maybe the selling continues right here, right now. As I told you, I was looking for an inflation scare. But I pointed out, we've had a significant sell-off on the NASDAQ, the semiconductors, and the AI stocks. So I could be wrong about that, but regardless, this is a bounce, and the VIX correctly predicted the bounce that we're getting right now. And now it's predicting the bounce is going to end, and we're going to see more selling. Now, after Thursday's sharp sell-off and our inside day, there on Friday, we were just above that 200 period. We get this bounce and a rally back up to the 10-day moving average here on the S&P 500. We broke below the confirmation line. Now we're coming back up, and we're rallying to the 10-period moving average. I'll be watching, by the end of the week, are we below this confirmation line? And right now, if you exclude the shadow, well, we're right at that area. So testing our 10-period moving average. Again, we have a miniature double top right here. We had a false breakout. If I try to bring it up close, some things are going to move if I do that. But we had a false breakout. We got a topping tail. We got confirmation and a fall through a series of lower highs and lower lows. So far, we've dropped almost 6.5%. We didn't quite reach that 200. We may do it. We may just drop below it and get another pushdown before we get any kind of real meaningful bounce. Again, let me repeat. I still think it's very possible we get an inflation scare and a very sharp sell-off with the inflation data tomorrow. If it comes in hot, it is supposed to tick higher, as I'm talking about in this video. A bearish arrangement of the moving average is a 10 here with the red line. The 20 is the blue and the 50 is a green. They're now all pointing down. And, again, we're just rallying up to that 10-period moving average. So, again, I'll be watching. Do we just have a bounce here and we end up dropping below this low from Thursday's low and end up trying to test the 200 and maybe take it out and test our June low or even take that out? So, again, we did something very, very ugly. I've talked about that the June and July lows. Let me bring it up here. The July low right here, well, that's right near our, I didn't draw that very straight, the 200-period moving average here, right there. And right below that, our June low is just under that area. But our July low near it, near it, just slightly under it. So, again, I'll be watching these levels. And, again, maybe we just start taking this level out. We're rallying back up to the 10-period and the momentum cloud. If I bring up the trending cloud, we're stalling. We broke the trending cloud, tried to get back above it. We stalled at the moving averages, and we had that sharp sell-off on Thursday. And now we're coming back to the low end of the trending cloud that's turned red into the future. So, again, we might have to move further away from this area down here or even get something really ugly if we get a sharp sell-off at the CPI. I've been predicting that we get a very sharp sell-off at the CPI. I was, again, looking for it just before the election or just after the election. An inflation scare. It's what we've seen before, or at least what we had in 2007, where we see sell-offs surrounding it as the inflation data ticks higher. And I talked about that over the weekend. In 2000, we had, I mean, we had a significant, you know, you had a 14% drop. Most of it was over a couple of days. So, you see something like that again and drop sharply down. That's very possible. So, again, we'll be watching to see if we take out our 200-period moving average. We'll be watching to see if we're now getting rejection at the cloud here. And, again, we might have to move further away from it before we get any kind of meaningful balance or even get something very scary moving into a freefall, as I've talked about. The S&P has only moved down now just under 6.5%, where NASDAQ has dropped by more than 15%. These divergences, again, MACD is in the negative region. It's not turning back up with this rally here. And the RSI is still holding below 50%. Now, why I say that it could be something very dramatic and a CPI crash is because it's very possible we are in crash wave 3. Very possible with the S&P 500 here. Over here, I thought we had an ending diagonal and a fake phony breakout. But it, again, proved to be correct. We just had a head fake above the August 13th peak, moved above it by 0.38%, and then got a reversal topping tail, and this sell-off has happened. Now, if we have an inflation scare or an inflation scare, you see oil begin to surge back up. Trump decides to resume combat operations in Iran and continue to see selling on concerns about the AI data centers. The truth is coming to a screeching halt now. Democrats are taking steps and have said that they're going to put a stop to this. They're going to see all these investigations into these AI companies. And, again, I told you it could be the final nail in the coffin for the AI trade. Again, not in the Democrat Party, not the Republican Party. I'm just telling you what is likely going to be the case and why we're seeing the sell-off and why it's not over. We're in the crash to kick off the bear market. And if I'm correct, and we have peaked with an ending diagonal, we could be having a wave 1 here and a wave 2. We could now be in crash wave 3 with these smaller microwaves. Whole thing, a 5-way pushdown for a wave 1 going back to our March 30th low. We could be there very, very soon. We could be down there, dropping 19%, 20%, 24%, something like that. We could see a significant drop into December. We're on into January. If we're in a wave 1 down and we're in the wave 3 of wave 1 right down, then you could take out that 200 period. The average alignment of the moving averages is not good for the S&P 500. So if I am correct about an inflation scare, massive CPI sell-off, we could be in the crash wave 3. VIX now is predicting that in the next two days, we're going to have a sell-off. The VIX that predicted the bounce that we got here the last two trading sessions. See if this plays out. Now, again, the VIX predicted this bounce. The VIX is now predicting we're going to see the selling resume either tomorrow or the next day. I think it's going to be tomorrow. I think we're going to have the inflation scare. And again, I've warned you, last month of this month, that's what I think is going to happen. We rallied up to the 200 here in the 15-minute time frame. Again, had an inside day on Friday, and then we rallied gapping higher today and getting this big rally. A very, very sharp decline last Thursday. We have gaps that have not filled. We don't have to fill these gaps, okay? Mark them here so you can see them. I watch them. A boatload of gaps on the way up that never filled. We may not fill these gaps at all. We may not fill them until a later date. We may not fill them until the next bull market. But I mark them on here to watch to see because sometimes you gravitate towards them. Sometimes you have to fill them. Do we have to fill them? No. And this is our gap when we gap lower on Thursday. Form to diversions here on the 15-minute chart, so we'll be watching. Do we sell off with the CPI data? Mostly, I think that's going to be the case. We're going to have the inflation scare. I'd be wrong. Yep, I could be wrong. Maybe we don't get the big sell-off surrounding CPI. Maybe it's more of a gradual sell-off that the CPI data is part of the crash. A couple of months, as I talked about in 2007, I'm telling you what I think. And I think there's going to be an inflation scare. Warning you that we've had a significant sell-off with conductors and AI stocks, as I correctly predicted, would happen. It's been significant ahead of the CPI. So maybe I'll be wrong, but I don't think so. I think I'm going to be right about it. Let's see what happens. But here, turning down here with our signals on these shorter-term timeframes, forming divergences. I learned you that the 15-minute chart was warning we'd get a bounce. And again, the VIX was predicting we'd get a bounce. And oh, gee, what happened? We got a bounce. The VIX was right. Diversions here was right. We might go lower and then get the bounce, but it was predicting some type of bounce right here. We didn't go lower. We got a higher low. And I told you it could be a feeble bounce or a bigger bounce. It's a bigger bounce. It could be done now with our new bearish diversions here. Now, in the 60-minute time frame, we're rallying back in the daily to the 10 period, okay, on the S&P 500 here. We're rallying back to the 50 period here in the 60-minute time frame, and both of them stalling at the cloud. Here, the trending cloud in the 60-minute time frame and the momentum cloud in the daily time frames. Now, as I said over the weekend, again, we might be dropping down towards the 50-week moving average or beyond it if we start moving into a free fall towards our 100-period moving average. If we're in the crash wave three, here we've taken out the cloud here in the weekly time frame. The 10 is still above the 20, but we've dropped below the 10 and the 20. And even with this rally today, we're still below both. And if we sell off further, that 10 is going to cross below the 20-week moving average, and that would be bearish for the S&P 500. Again, we'll see what happens by the end of the week. Now, let me bring up the confirmation line here of the double top, and that's this low right here. That's this blue line right here. We got it back above it. We're balancing out the lower Bollinger band. If we get rejection at the cloud and the moving averages, and we turn back down, and we're, again, testing our 10-period in the daily, if we get rejection there, again, I'll be watching. Do we close below this level in the weekly time frame? Now, once again, if we do move lower, either wave 3 or we're in a larger wave 1 that's going to complete near this trend line, again, both are possible. That's an alternative wave count. I don't have time to show you today, but I talked about moving down to the 200 in this trend line. If we're seeing a wave 3 crash, just start crashing down towards the March low, those scenarios are possible. If we come down here, then, again, it could be that we form a larger wave 1 and then a 2 if we try to move back towards the cloud. But right here, if we sell off at the CPI, going to be watching the trend line here, going to be watching the 200-period moving average here in the daily time frame, going to be watching. Do we break these levels or move back to them, try to bounce? If we get the CPI sell off, as I think we will, again, I'm going to be looking for a pretty dramatic drop. But if we get a move down, again, 19.5% takes us down to that March low, 20% plus move takes us back to the February 2025 high. And as I've said before, December ends, I think you will be down this midterm election year, as you usually are, by at least 19%. Historically, that's been the case. I think it will be closer to 20% to 24%. I do think the sell-off will continue on into the first quarter. I think the Fed will finally panic. See if we get the CPI sell-off. But, again, the divergences are playing out. We were told this wasn't going to happen. Now we're getting the buy-the-dip crowd coming back in. They're going to buy the dip that keeps on dipping. I see margin call after margin call. People that told us the sell-off wasn't going to happen, especially with the NASDAQ, with tech. Semiconductors and AI stocks are now telling us, it's over, hurry up and buy the dip. Well, wait a minute. I thought you said it wasn't going to happen. Over social media, the sell-off's over. It's just getting started. And, again, I'll be watching these gaps. If I'm wrong about a CPI sell-off, we're going to try to go back and fill the gaps. We'll be watching. As I said, we have gaps all the way up that never got filled on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. So, again, got a bullish inside day there on Friday. Here we rally back up to the 200-period moving average. You got your gap fill above that, the 10-period. S&P rallied up to the 10-period. NASDAQ rallied back up to the 200-period, getting back above the confirmation line. We'll see if we close below it by the end of the week. Confirmation line to the double top. We've seen NASDAQ drop about 15.25% or so. In these diversions, diversions play out with the double top. We were told this wasn't going to happen with the RSI, the MACD. They're still negative. And, again, got the head fake. We got the fake out, the false breakout. And it's a breakout, and it was a fake out. The topic details, October 6th, exactly one year after Bitcoin peaked. Did the exact same thing Bitcoin peaked. We did at its peak. We moved just above the previous high ever so slightly, and then it failed, exactly what Bitcoin did. See my latest Bitcoin video, my amazing Bitcoin indicators. You can follow the link at the end of this video, and I'll link my video from earlier today on Bitcoin. Bitcoin's getting the second leg down of the bear market. The stock market's getting the first leg down. That's why Bitcoin's going to bottom before the market and start a new bull market. Money's got to rotate somewhere. The institutions are smart. They're getting the bear market of Bitcoin out of the way so they can have a place to rotate money into. They're brilliant. All these divergences, bring parameters, get the divergence. Eventually, it's going to go negative. And when it does, you're going to get a much, much bigger drop with the NASDAQ. But NASDAQ bouncing after a 15.25% drop. The VIX correctly predicted what happened. Last Thursday, we got the rally Friday, the bullish inside day, and now we're rallying back up. So we'll see if we fill this gap or not. We'll see what happens with the CPI. I still think we could drop sharply. Bouncing off the trend line, and we're hitting this 200, bouncing off the trend line. Let me show you. We slightly breached the trend line. This is our linear scaling. We had a slight breach of the trend line, and we've rallied back up to the 200. If we take out this trend line, the door's open for a much bigger drop. Again, a 27.25% drop is down to the March low. If we do what we did with the bursting of the dot-com bubble, a 40% drop in 10 weeks, you're coming down here. That would take us towards our 200-period moving average. It would take you back down to the 19,000 area or below. The rewards are April 2025 low. The divergences play out. Again, we were told this was not going to happen, but we're very oversold. You could remain oversold for an extended period of time. Keep that in mind. I'll be watching. Do we break this trend line, decisively break it? We had a breach of it, but then we bounced off of it. We had a solid push below it this week. We'll be watching. NASDAQ is at this trend line already. S&P could move towards it from these April 2025 lows. Here you can see it on the weekly chart. Here's that trend line on the NASDAQ right here, trying to bounce. We dropped below the 50, trying to bounce here, surrounding the 50. We dropped below the 200. We're testing the 200 in the daily. You start losing this trend line right here. You start losing the cloud. You're going to get a bigger drop back to one of these other trend lines. Here's our 200-week moving average. Here is the April 2025 low. So, these trend lines are very, very important. This low to this low. This low here. Back to the 2020 low. Divergences are playing out in the weekly time frame. We're still not at extremes with the stochastic. So, I may be right about the inflation scare tomorrow. Here's our double top in the weekly time frame. We closed just below the confirmation line at 27,176. Now, we're getting back above it and back above our 50-week moving average. So, we'll be watching. Try to get the bigger bounce right here right now. Then, maybe we fill the gap and move towards the moving averages here. If we don't, S&P is closer to the moving averages. NASDAQ is pretty far away from it. If we don't, we can move down towards the 100 period or towards the March low and just move into a free fall, moving sharply below the confirmation line. Do we get a topping tail here having moved above the confirmation line, but then by the end of the week, we're back below it? And we get a topping tail by the end of the week. Here, we opened right at it, at the confirmation line, and we're trying to get above the 50-week. So, I'll be watching. Here's our fake phony breakout with our topping tail. And again, we've had four weeks of selling. Now, we're trying to bounce. We tried to bounce before, and those rallies have failed. So, we'll be watching to see if we move further away from the confirmation line before we get any kind of meaningful bounce, which we may do. Right now, the 10 is attempting to move to cross below the 20-week moving average. These divergences are playing out. The MACD moves into the negative region. We'll get a much bigger drop on the NASDAQ here in the weekly timeframe. And again, just zooming out here on the other chart, you can see it right here. Once we start moving into the negative region, you're going to get a much bigger drop on the NASDAQ 100. We talked about the divergences, the intraday charts. We're rallying back up to the 50 here. We're rallying back up to 200 in the daily. Again, we'll see if we are just getting a bounce. So, some of these other divergences, they just gave us bounces. They didn't produce a reversal. They just gave us countertrend rally bounces. That's what we had here. That's what we had here. And that's what we had with the hidden bearish diversions where we made a lower high and the RSI went higher, marking a lower peak and a sell-off. But the RSI reaching some of these extremes has only given us these countertrend bounces so far. We'll see what becomes of this.