STOCK MARKET CRASH SIGNALS FLASHING EVERYWHERE: The AI Bubble is Popping - BLACK MONDAY OCT 19, 1987

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: let's just quickly go through some of these signals and i'll just flash them here on the screen let you look at them this is the weekly chair of the nasdaq 100 again we're getting that big ugly red bar dropping into the lower end here in the weekly time frame the lower end of the channel which is what is necessary for a bigger saw so that's very bearish we saw the red bar for the semiconductor etf soxx last week and we dropped into the lower end of the channel this week now here's the ai etf again the bars never could flip back to blue uh they've remained red here and we're down here at the 50 week moving average we got the black bar the week of the top back-to-back black bar reversal bars and we're seeing momentum here uh turn negative now after the diversions and confirmation of a lower high momentum's turning negative now we need to get a lower low and take up this low here with the ai etf bai all kinds of warning signs now here's the s&p s&p 500 weekly chart even with the rally to the october high the head fake above the previous august 13th peak again the bars could not flip back to bullish and now we're again closing below the lower boundary of the channel that could be opening the door for a bigger sell-off well we've gone sideways and poked just above the previous august 13th peak we've gone sideways and we've had red bars for nine weeks and again we had a diversions at the august uh 13th peak now we have a multiple point diversions here in the most recent price action here with momentum and on the rsi and other indicators like the macd awesome oscillator and others price oscillator same thing here in the daily time frame in the daily time frame for nasdaq again bars remained red it didn't buy into the breakout and again likely is now a fake out and now losing the 50 and the 100 period moving back into the lower end of the channel we'll be watching to see if we attempt to bounce or not vix is predicting a bounce either monday or tuesday we'll be watching to see just how big it is if we get it and again the bearish diversions as it formed with that fake breakout and then the s&p 500 daily again we had the diversions at the august uh 13th peak right here we had now have a larger diversions and with the breakout to new highs bars remained red right here and now we're taking out the lower boundary the lower boundary of the channel or the midpoint of the channel i should say taking out the 50 period we've got the 100 directly below nasdaq did take out the 100 period watching does this now open the door to test the 100 to test the 200 and start moving lower to test the july low remember the dow and the russell had already taken out the july lows we'll be watching to see if nasdaq and s&p follow suit which will is likely going to be the case seeing these divergences play out and this again is now looking like it was a head fake a fake breakout and we see momentum turning back to bearish here in the weekly time frame in the week with the red bar or red cloud and the circle here warning momentum is shifting now again this is just looking at short-term momentum so you're going to get a lot of signals just looking at the short-term momentum swings sometimes they turn into trending moves bars remain red and we continue to decline which is likely going to be the case where we're going to see a sell-off weekly chart of the s&p and here the nasdaq's doing the same thing so this is saying momentum is shifting back down we've had this head fake and the the topping tail we had last week now being confirmed now we need to follow through and the break of the trend line in the weekly time frame now we need to follow through there this coming week here this week we're we're moving into now or uh the the week of the fed the following week we need to follow through now the s&p closed near its lows here but it just missed turning the signal here by a whisker it didn't quite do it we still have the diversion present on indicators but it didn't quite do it we'll see if we get it next week or the week after that with the fed depending on if we uh get a bounce back up of gaps as i talked about my last video still gaps that i'm watching but it was close but no cigar here on the s&p weekly but nasdaq got it nasdaq had the diversions play out and we saw the bar turn back to red so we've got the signal going on here for the nasdaq and again all kinds of signals turning bearish this week on the nasdaq now we did see a bunch of signals turn bearish on the lsp 500 we got to see more weekly signals turn bearish but we got a uh the signals turning bearish on the weekly chart for the nasdaq and in the daily time frame for the nasdaq as well so a bunch of them but we did see a bunch of these daily signals turn bearish for the s&p 500 we saw the nasdaq 100 have the signals turn earlier in the week and then the s&p by the end of the week had a bunch of sell signals so we've got this going on here uh for the nasdaq a bunch of them and a good chunk of them for the s&p 500 and then here's the here's the s&p 500 daily again the signal here turning bearish uh turning bearish there on friday a bunch of these daily signals turning bearish the divergence is complete in the the weekly and the monthly time frame and a other reference point on the daily charts now it's beginning to play out so again likely have a head fake on our hands here with the s&p 500 and the nasdaq pushing above their previous highs here's the nasdaq daily chart the nasdaq daily chart turned bearish again on a bunch of signals earlier in the week and then the s&p followed suit here's the s&p 500 the s&p 500 daily chart here momentum turning back to bearish we have the bars flipping back to red they had flipped back to blue with the breakout to the new high but it was a fake out but it could be a liquidity sweep or a bull trap with a short squeeze a short squeeze happening and now we have bars flipping back to red s&p daily here nasdaq again had a bunch of signals turn bearish on wednesday here it is right here so again bars back to red s&p following suit with a bunch of signals turning bearish on friday s&p flipping bearish here on friday as well a bunch of signals in the daily time frame turn bearish here another bearish wednesday turn uh with the nasdaq 100 signal here in the daily time frame i've warned you nasdaq could be forming a double top pattern here with this confirmation line right here at the july low the smaller double top pattern with the s&p from the peak here and here nasdaq's got a really nice looking big one from our june 3rd peak but a bunch of signals turning bearish on the s&p 500 there on friday and a bunch on wednesday for the nasdaq and there on friday as well and there on friday as well and there on friday as well as you can link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information you can take a moment to help out i'd appreciate it partner with me by 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momentum has shifted in the weekly time frame we saw it back over here at the june 3rd peak and again some of these rebounds back up here the trough low for our double bottom likely we're headed down to this 50-week movie average and eventually the 200 not seen here and ultimately take out the march 30th low and eventually go back towards the april 2025 low likely going to see a doozy of a sell-off if we are in the wave three the ai etf semiconductor etf as i think we are uh you're going to see a doozy of a sell-off here for nasdaq 100. but a boatload of signals turning bearish on the s&p 500 on friday following the nasdaq earlier in the week nasdaq turning bearish here wednesday along with many other indicators as i said nasdaq can still either go a little bit lower and try to bounce or bounce immediately still have signals remain bearish same is true for the s&p but we did break those trend lines i don't know that we'll be able to get back above them to try to fill gaps major damage done this week the ai bubble is finally bursting but we're seeing a bunch of my indicators flip back to bearish for the s&p on friday here the bar is flipping back to red and here it is on the nasdaq 100. now i talked about in my last video i talked about how the ai bubble is now bursting looking for a completion of our abc move here on the ai etf b a i it's the largest ai etf so i'm looking at it and i told you i was looking for an abc structure and to complete a two and i believe that you had a wave one down here this is when we saw the margin debt begin to collapse and i told you i thought that would produce a peak in margin debt for july or i'm sorry for june when the ai etf and the semiconductor etfs uh peaked which it did the way i'm waiting for the uh next round of margin debt that should come any day here before the month ends as long as the june ho the june high holds likely that we have seen a peak on the s p 500 just peaking just after a three month window six days after on october 6th 2026 which is one year exactly to the date that after bitcoin peaked october 6 2025 that's pretty interesting we're now seeing the evidence the ai bubble is now going to collapse we're down 14.38 for the week since this lower high we were down uh we're down over 18 in two weeks from the peak that was 14 is just in one week now from the peak over here we're down 24 from the high when i told you that i thought we had the bottom or the top i'm sorry back in june it collapsed about 32 percent over 32 percent down to the 50 week moving average which i think you're going to take out and take out that low uh the next thing here and i think it's going to get very very ugly very quickly now just think it through with me again companies have accumulated billions of dollars in debt to build infrastructure that isn't generating revenue it isn't generating enough revenue to pay off that debt think about that and climbing yields which i told you was going to happen and we've seen it happen now concerns about inflation and concerns about the national debt climbing yields are making that debt extremely expensive to service and i've talked about it like the railroad stocks remember we had the railroad stocks in the 1800s they're laying the tracks and laying the infrastructure there was a massive bubble that formed in the railroad stocks that eventually burst you've got the same thing here in the infrastructure phase with the ai bubble there's really mounting debt and no real profits and the profits are years into the future five and ten years into the future what's created this massive bubble bubbles now bursting they told us it wouldn't happen i'm talking about this for a long time about how there's eventually going to be this reality check the ai growth spending boom is expected to begin to to slow down dramatically slow down in 2027 and once again because the massive cost of building the data centers is completely disconnected from real world corporate revenues right now right now lenders are signaling a tightening a tightening of financial conditions which is triggering a a severe tech credit squeeze so this is what's going on problems with the borrowing problems with the spending massive amounts of money not generating the profits those profits are going to come later and by the way it's expected there's going to be 3.5 trillion with the t 3.5 trillion in infrastructure asset write down so again seeing all the hype surrounding ai just like we did the railroad bubble in the 1800s the internet bubble in late 90s that burst in 2000 this is the biggest bubble in history and i'm just scratching the surface there are other things take an entire video to talk about some of the things related to all this i'm just giving you a thumbnail sketch here i talked about it quite a bit i talked about it last week and i'm talking about it uh over this last week here and today telling you we're likely in the wave three the crash wave three four the internet atf the internet stocks crashing this week 14.38 we're seeing the evidence now the wave two the abc is likely done for a wave one down on the wave two and we're likely in crash wave three and that's going to really impact the nasdaq 100 and the overall stock market when we had the bursting of the tech bubble nasdaq 100 dropped 40 percent in 10 weeks make you gonna see something ugly here people are so complacent and so in denial that when we see the collapse happen they're gonna again be in shock they're gonna go from complacency here and euphoria they're complacent it's it's euphoria they're complacent and they're going to quickly in a blink of an eye have that flip to panic it's going to be scary and then we have the semiconductor etfs the soxx etf the philadelphia semiconductor down nearly 12 for the week 11.80 i talked about this in my last video but again i'm just telling you these are you know telling you something's about to happen already started happening right here we dropped uh 29 and a half percent rebounded back up got a lower high and now we're getting the next leg down crash wave three and i talked about how the nasdaq had dropped five and a half percent for the week uh and it uh took out the 10 and 20 week moving average and it's you know now got this divergence here these highs pointing to the next high we have this divergence on the rsi we have the divergence on the macd and i'm going to show you the signals we had a boatload of signals i showed them to you earlier in the week but i want to show you uh the final print for the week and what will be uh what we'll be looking for either next week or the week after that with the fed we'll be looking for a follow-through to this move right here confirmed to topping tail the fake breakout right here was a head fake just inching just uh just under two percent just 1.9 percent above the june 3rd high we moved above it and then it reversed we just we just poked above this level that's called a head fake and technical analysis and uh again now we have a reversal leading these divergences so you're now going to see these divergences begin to play out and the ai bubble is now bursting and you're now seeing evidence of it stochastics rolling over and we're just seeing things all over the place uh bearish divergences on all kinds of indicators so i want to talk about some of these signals that we now have on the nasdaq 100 and the s p 500 now in my last video i talked about how nasdaq and s p were breaking down from these trend lines from the march 30th low and broke down and then we got a back test or a throwback to it didn't quite reach the trend line excluding the shadow here but just a black line i included the shadow with the blue line we didn't quite reach it but we we did have an immediate back test we may uh we may go down further towards the 200 period if we have a breakdown back test immediately or i talked about my last video try to flirt with this area again to back test we do have some gaps those gaps do not have to be filled but you always want to watch gaps will be broken down but it's triggered a boatload of signals so even if you get a bounce back up again nasdaq has likely topped a head fake we got that topping tail and what cracks me up is it's october 6 2026 the s p and nasdaq peaked on october 6 which is exactly to the day one year after bitcoin peaked on october 6 2025 isn't that funny point recently peaked on september 21st and usually it's what happens is bitcoin will get a peak and then we'll see the market peak after that and then themselves even though they have a uh there's there's been a decoupling where we've seen bitcoin move into a bull mark uh bear market and the the s p and the nasdaq are now starting it coins already been dropping lost 54 and a half percent it's got a bear market rally that now is finished see my latest bitcoin video at the end of this one this trend line break we'll see if we get a follow through do we keep going do we get a fall through on that weekly chart do we get a fall through to the breakdown of this uh trend line in the weekly time frame with that we only get one bar per week so we'll see if we continue going down here uh we'll be watching uh and the stochastic uh starting down now become oversold so i'll be watching to see what happens now that we broke the trend line and we're triggering all these sell signals on the nasdaq and s p let's take a look at some keep in mind we're breaking these trend lines from the march series low here it is on the s p 500 breakdown immediate back test and rejection continuing to uh get rejection off of the trend line after breaking it these diversions is complete so i talked about all this in my last video let's look at some of these signals that i didn't show you now this is a nasdaq weekly chart we have those green bars i told you the divergence was forming on the awesome oscillator the macd macd turned up and turned right back down here right off that signal line we got the stochastic rolling over we got a red bar in the awesome oscillator meaning that this move is likely done and with this we close the week out near the lows of the week getting a bearish reversal of conditions the bar is now turning to red we got the little arrow there showing we close below the cloud the bar is turning to red means we likely had a head fake and again i talked about the topping tail being now confirmed now we need to fall through to that fall through to the break of the trend line here in the weekly time frame so again you're likely going to quickly move to the the 50 week eventually you'll move all the way down past this march 30th low the trend line we just broke and eventually back towards the 200 period and to test the 2025 low here the april low so we're going to get a doozy of a drop the bursting of the tech bubble the nasdaq dropped 40 percent 100 dropped 40 percent in 10 weeks we'll likely see something similar to that now again we may get a bounce and then continue going down we'll see continue down get a bounce and then go down further but again got some real evidence this week that the ai bubble is bursting with what was going on uh with the tech sector especially with the ai etf and the ai stock along with semiconductor stocks and those etfs semiconductor etfs a bearish reversal of conditions here even if we try to get a bounce that signal is likely going to stay due to all the divergences in the weekly and the daily time frame and even in the monthly time frame monthly time frame we're getting the red bar there's still time left in the month but we're getting the red bar showing momentum is now turning in all likelihood had the same thing going on for the s p 500 monthly chart by the way red awesome oscillator bar here's our weekly chart of the s p 500 and we got the stochastic rolling over here for the week we already had it going on for the nasdaq but we were down two percent for the week and we tried to get a green bar this week but it failed we tried to get one last week and it failed both times it failed and we ended up with red bars but this is showing again momentum is waning here we're still we still moved higher but we had the diversions here the august 13th peak and then we went slightly higher and now you're getting another reference point of a divergence become the macd and the macd couldn't turn back up above the signal line the r the awesome mouse leader could not get the green bar so the s p 500 getting a bearish reversal of conditions along with the nasdaq even though it only dropped two percent nasdaq dropped five and a half percent the s p 500 is getting the reversal of conditions signaling that the move is likely done that we had a head fake in the daily time frame moving just slightly above the previous peak because i've talked about we barely pushed above that previous high not even by half a percent it was just under 0.40 percent just just right under that little topic tells a head fake and then we came and we broke the trend line so again we're getting this little miniature double top in this second peak of what could be a three drives to a higher or large one as we break down from the larger rising wedge potentially breaking down and back testing now with these diversions is looming over the chart so a bearish reversal of conditions here for the s p weekly time frame by the way we've got confirmation of a lower high on the ai etf bai and look at that again that ugly bar we'll be watching to see if we take out that 50 week but again confirming a lower high we're likely now entering crash wave three it's going to get ugly look at the semiconductor etf so xx look at that same exact thing again likely confirming a lower high now with the bearish reversal of conditions of the weekly time frame and these red osmo oscillator bars with our stochastics rolling over told you i thought we had a wave two i think you're now in the wave three and i think you're going to see massive wave three crash with the semiconductors and the etfs for the ai stocks i think you're going to get a doozy of a crash and again it's going to catch people off guard people aren't seeing what's what's coming down the pike here but the so xx semiconductor etf also getting the bearish reversal of conditions here in the weekly time frame we also got it on nvidia by the way and a red osmo oscillator bar and the macd rolling over completing the diversions here in the weekly time frame on nvidia so we're seeing some real evidence that the ai bubble is bursting the caustic rolling over uh here technical damage being done to nvidia and i talked about a video my last video as well along with showing you the daily chart just real fast the daily chart i told you earlier in the week we got the bearish reversal conditions on the s p 500 daily chart i think we're eventually headed down again towards the july low towards the 200 day moving average so i think you're going to see that happen even if we try to get a bounce if as long as these signals that have now turned bearish if they remain bearish we can go a whole lot lower and in midterm election years from whatever high develops you have a history seeing since 1970 about a 19 drop before the midterm election year ends so i think we're going to be dropping into the end of the year here i think that again by the end of december i'm looking for a you know 20 24 drop at least but it could be more because the s p is now nasdaq 100 junior and we had this signal triggered on wednesday for the daily chart and other signals followed after nasdaq got the signal on tuesday here for the shift in momentum in the daily time frame and again we're becoming oversold so again we'll see did we drop further and then get some kind of uh attempted bounce we'll be watching but now you're getting closes uh again below the uh the moving averages you drop below the 10 and 20 and here we're now pushing below the 50 period the green line the 10 is now crossing the 20. so we're seeing some real weakness here with the nasdaq and the s p so even if we try to get some kind of bounce back up a good chance we're going to do a whole lot more damage because we broke those trend lines in the daily time frame in the weekly time frame that i've showed you from the march 30th lows i've already talked about the dow and how in the monthly time frame it peaked in august the dow topped on august 5th the s p topped on august 13th and then the s p went and got a head fake on october 6th moved slightly higher the dow did not and again back in 2000 the dow peaked first 70 days later the s p 500 peaked and here it is here it is the 2000 top the dow peaked january 14th the s p uh made a slightly higher high and it peaked march 24th the dow peaked and then 70 days later the s p peaked we had a very similar situation this time this time the dow peaked on august 5th and 62 days later the s p peaked if our high holds on october 6th told you if it drug out until the 14th it would be exactly 70 to 17 days if we ended up peaking on october 14th but peaked before and i told you it might be just before just after but to be watching because the dow peaked first at the 2000 top and i talked about the inflation scare at the top we witnessing the early stages of the inflation scare right now we had a huge surge in crude oil this week of over 10 percent so significant jump in the inflation indexes and we saw the market sell up nasdaq dropping the five and a half percent and the whole tech sector as i've talked about and we saw the s p peak same day as nasdaq october 6 2026 that's 62 days after the dow peaked very similar to what we had here at the 2000 top as i said they often diverge from one another but the dow again here you can see we have the topping tail we got that topping tail in the monthly time frame as well uh for the month when we peaked in august the august uh bar was a topping tail in the in the monthly time frame but we had this sell off well the s p went slightly higher and formed divergences the dow's bounced but again it's not moving to new highs and it's already peaked very similar but this is 62 days after the dow peaked here very very similar to what we saw at the 2000 top talked about this previously at great length and detail but i wanted to update you on that that was only six days after again i told you there's a three-month window from the june peak margin debt peaked looking for a top july august or september that three-month window well we peaked six days after it and that includes a weekend so really four days later after that three-month window we saw the s p peak told you was possible told you there was a good chance we are going to see that august peak hold up we just went slightly above it and got a head fake completing uh divergences uh in the daily time frame another reference point of diversions the s p peaking 62 days after the dow peaking six days after margin debt peaked if that margin debt peak holds i'll be watching the margin debt coming in and again that was the largest decline in july that we saw and i told you i was expecting that decline margin debt in july because we saw that big sell-off june peak on into june going into july see margin debt peak and we had that largest uh sell-off largest decline month over month in margin debt in history