🚨A STOCK MARKET EMERGENCY!🚨 NASDAQ 100 Triggers Sell Signals - Momentum Turns Bearish on the S&P 500

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: okay we've got earnings going on and they're going to be a lot more earnings over the next couple weeks here and we've got the inflation data the market's selling off on the inflation data cpi coming in hot as i told you i thought it would the dow down 48 points point zero nine percent the s p was down 1.11 percent down uh 86 points to close at 77 almost 77.19 the nasdaq 100 was down two percent over two percent down 618 points uh closing below 30 000 at 29 950 getting some bearish signals uh bear signals there and the russell the russell was down almost two percent as well down 53 points we had the cpi come in hot warned you i thought that would be the case we got the ppi coming in tomorrow gasoline prices soared by 9.1 accounting for about half of the gain in the headline cpi number and i told you there could be other things that cause pi to rise not just energy and i think we're seeing that reflected here shelter prices increased 0.4 percent used car truck prices increased by 0.7 percent apparel prices increased by 0.3 percent and we know it wasn't just energy when you strip out energy with the core still saw the core increase so it wasn't just fuel prices the cpi was coming in at 3.6 percent it came in at 3.7 percent uh higher than the 3.4 percent previously the month over month was at 0.6 percent in line with expectations and then we have also the core uh year over year year over year came in at 2.6 percent it was previously 2.5 and that is higher the core uh excluding energy uh was still higher than the 2.4 percent so number coming in hot and i told you it's going to be believed the fed is going to have to aggressively raise rates get more and more evidence inflation is on the rise tomorrow we'll get the ppi wholesale inflation and again the year over year number is expected to be 5.5 and i've got that right here 5.5 previously 5.4 this was a higher forecast previously on trading economics that came down and here uh on market watch it is 5.5 currently the fed funds uh fed fund futures are expecting that we're not going to have a rate hike in october i think in the next two weeks or so here at the end of the month i think we will the current target rate is currently at 375 to 400 it's expected that the fed is not going to raise rates but this has come down sharply from being up above 82 percent now at 67 earlier in the day it was down as low as 62 changes throughout the day well we had a rate increase in uh jump up to 32.7 earlier that was around 37 earlier in the day right after the inflation data i don't think you're going to get a hike in october and a very hawkish fed said i think this will go down and this will go back up and i think you'll get the hike in october market will price that in now the fed fund futures is expecting that we're going to get a hike in december 63.2 chance and again i think this will be moved into october back into october where we'll get a hike and maybe still have one penciled in for december but as i said i think the fed is going to raise uh their the rates they'll eventually have to abandon the rate raising campaign and start jumbo cuts once the markets begin to collapse the fed will panic that's what happened in 2001 when they panicked after the collapse in 2000 and that's what happened in 2008 at the beginning of 2008 january both cases uh when the market collapsed in 2007 the fed panicked by january of 2008. no inflation will rise they will have to uh start jumbo cuts to support the economy get that ppi tomorrow we'll see if it comes in hot as well that is wholesale inflation and again we've had our breakout i called a bottom for crude oil uh the previous tuesday with this bottoming two at the 50 period moving average told you we're going to likely break out of this bullish falling wedge within a day or two we did and told you we would likely eventually uh move back above 100 and and clear this level currently we are at 95 we hit a high of 96 today you'll see a move above 100 in the near future going into the midterm elections uh and then again we'll likely soon see the u.s resume combat operations and bring this to a conclusion and crude oil will spike we'll have our oil shock and likely in the first part of 2027 the fed will panic and i think it'll be the first quarter which i've talked about a great lengthy detail january february march we'll get the fed raising another time maybe even a third time but then eventually they're going to have to abandon their rate raising campaign if we do see the oil shock here which i think we're going to believe that we're in the fifth wave of wave three as i've talked about this is my primary count at this time as i've shared with you i have a couple of other accounts going one more aggressive one is a comp complex correction in a wxy this is an abc a 335 pattern crude oil crude oil was up nearly one percent it's up over that but we closed off the lows candle of indecision in the form of a little spinning top here doji the 10-year yield the 10-year yield rallied but then it gave it back and it closed down about half a percent again as i've talked about there's gonna uh we're gonna see the 10-year yield go higher but there's going to be pullbacks along the way and i told you we would likely get one with this divergence we did but i told you it's still possible it forms uh into a larger divergence but we couldn't make a new high today we'll see if we do that with the relation data or if crude oil starts aggressively moving higher again it could be we are getting the bigger pullback right now that's possible uh if we have a decoupling going on we have a short-term decoupling in that crude oil had pulled back now bouncing where we had the 10-year yield rise and now pulling back there have a short-term decoupling between them i said we had that top until last week uh a shooting star candlestick is trying to be confirmed at this time so it's possible we pull back and back test the breakout we talked about a great length of detail we've had gone parabolic if crude oil goes higher we still might get a bigger pullback or go higher with crude or go higher with the 10-year yield and then pull back we try to form that larger divergence that i talked about but right now we're trying to pull back with last week's topping tail and trying to get a topping tail this week the rally back up uh today fizzled out and again potentially another topping tail for this week i don't think you're going to top until you likely see a divergence here so i do think you'll end up seeing a pullback now or go a little higher and pull back if we get that larger diversions but eventually uh the 10-year yield is going to go higher with the inflation scare but there's going to be pullbacks along the way as i've said please support the channel please support the channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information if you could take a moment to help out i'd really appreciate it if you follow the link below to take you to a secure site you could donate any amount you want and i do that i ask that you do that rather than getting sponsors and selling you something you get a channel they contact you all the time i turn those offers down i'm not here to sell you something so please take a moment to partner with me and let me know that you want this information if you could take a moment it would be greatly appreciated when you finish watching this video you can also see my latest bitcoin video linked at the end of this video the cpi sell-off for the market caused the vix to rise by ten and a half percent ten point four eight percent the vix is at just under 17 uh closing at 16.87 coming up towards the trend line coming up towards the 200 period and i told you to be watching for a breakout above the trend line above the 200 period we could see it this week or next week very easily now getting the macd firming back up at the center line uh again we've come back we've filled the gap here and now it's off to the races now so i told you if we see that happen it could just be nothing more than a head fake on the s&p and the nasdaq 100 which is starting to look likely the macd is turning up and if we start seeing it sharply rise and get a breakout we could see very very ugly sell-off we're going to also get uh the ppi wholesale inflation tomorrow but we're going to get the uh taiwan semiconductor earnings and again there could be real selling pressure with the uh tech sector and the nasdaq 100 as we're seeing all kinds of sell signals flash for nvidia flash for the nasdaq 100 flash for semiconductor and ai etfs so ai bubble continue to warn is bursting at the stochastic turning sharply back up now up 10.48 today and that means that based on my study of the historical data is in the next two trading sessions to thursday or friday vix is predicting an update for the s p 500 at least an 85 chance of an update 15 chance it won't when the 15 chance when it doesn't happen oftentimes it's because the vic starts going parabolic and when the vic starts going parabolic you throw all of that out the window based on my study of historic closes the vic's closing up by more than 10 percent there is an 85 chance that the s p 500 will have an update in the next two sessions meaning thursday or friday could be an update s p may go a whole lot lower before you get that update but it is possible the vic's closed back above the 50 period moving average when the vic's closes and stays above the 50 and we've had a couple of pushes above it but have not been able to stay above it but when we get above it and stay above it like we did over here then bad things start happening on the s p 500 so we'll be watching can we stay above the 50 do we get back above the 200 and can we break the downward trend line the macd turning back up here and again if it starts moving sharply into positive territory we could see a breakout so keep your eye on the vix we also have a divergence between the s p vix ratio and the s p 500 the s p moved to new high the s p vix ratio did not there is a divergence present i often see divergences at turning points for pullbacks or reversals sometimes they're bigger divergences sometimes they're smaller divergences this one's a smaller one it's still possible we have a head fake on our hands we have to see the s p signals turn bearish as we're now seeing the nasdaq signals turn bearish this week in the weekly and the daily time frame now while we did get a bunch of uh sell signals and reversal signals for nasdaq 100 most of the s p signals are still bullish but we did get a reversal of conditions here with momentum today could see other signals join before the week ends but we had the red awesome oscillator bar yesterday we got to see the macd crossover and eventually go negative uh if the divergence is to play out and we have one on the awesome oscillator as well so we'll be watching to see if we try to bounce surrounding the 50 period or in the trend line that we're at or decisively uh break these levels that's some p daily the green bar we had earlier in the week is going away with another red bar still forming that divergence uh that we've talked about and it's looming all over the place in the weekly time frame the stochastic rolls over and we're getting that already with the uh the nasdaq 100 if the stochastic rolls over this week or next week uh could open the door for reversal of conditions here in the weekly time frame with just a head fake on the s p 500 now if we get further selling pressure on the s p 500 it could join the nasdaq and decisively breaking the 50 period moving average then we may see all the signals turn bearish but we are getting momentum turning bearish now we need to see the trend signals signals turning bearish like right here or right here nasdaq had a bunch of sell signals today and we've gotten sell signals this week so if we if we push down further tomorrow or friday on the s p 500 it could join the nasdaq and getting all these uh reversal signals and with the s p breaking the trend line today it could do that but we got to get a decisive push below the 50 period moving average and a real solid push below this trend line and again this is from the uh march 30th low from our new higher lows in september more about that later in the video we'll talk about all the sell signals on the nasdaq would you i told you this could be just nothing more than a head fake because as nasdaq's making new highs now retreating the stocks making new lows relative to new highs are sharply increased so again the fake out or the breakout could be a fake out leading our divergences in the weekly and the daily time frame now i warned you the topping tail could be a head fake and we're starting to see many signals turn back to bearish this week with the completing of the diversions from last week uh we're seeing the weekly chart here the bars are turning back to red the final print will not be until friday but if we see the bars turn back to red and then we take out the midpoint of the channel that's going to be very very bearish time we did it we had sold off we bounced off the 50 if we come down here take out the 50 week moving average uh then you're likely moving back down here towards the 200 week moving average but we're trying to get a red bar for the week here in the weekly time frame now here for the nasdaq in the daily time frame um the rally well the bars didn't buy into it they've remained red they formed the diversions and we're now seeing that play out here we're taking out the midpoint of the channel in the daily time frame testing our 50. we're losing the 50 and the 100 holding in the lower end of the channel by the end of the week on our way back to testing the july low we could be on our way back to testing the 200 if we lose the 50 here and we can be on our way back to testing that 50 week moving average we just saw in the weekly time frame but we're getting all kinds of bearish signals this week in the weekly time frame in the daily time frame for the nasdaq 100 and here is the weekly chart this is just looking at momentum we're getting another red circle while we're flipping the cloud to red and we're flipping the bar to red this is just looking at short-term momentum in the weekly time frame so i was telling you the momentum has shifted oftentimes when the cloud turns with it it can turn into a trending move but it is just looking at short-term momentum but it can turn into a trending move like back over here from from 2025 here in the weekly time frame we're not quite there yet with this signal but if we take out that 50 uh day the 50 day moving average in the daily time frame you'll likely see this term bearish by the end of the week and again we've got divergences going on all over the place on the nasdaq and the s p 500 but all kinds of signals turning bearish this week and today on the nasdaq 100 daily chart here it is on the daily chart right here and tried to turn some signals yesterday at the intraday lows but we got that hollow red candlestick well that didn't play out and we saw the signals turn today boatload of signals turning on the nasdaq 100 today and this week same thing here we tried to turn it yesterday on an intraday basis but we couldn't do it by the close it was close but no cigar but we did get it today here for the nasdaq so even if we try to rally back up and fill some gaps the signal here can still remain bearish for the nasdaq but a lot of signals turning bearish this week for the nasdaq 100 and today for the nasdaq 100 and then here the bar is turning red here today so we're seeing some uh some real weakness we're seeing momentum see term we're seeing the trend signals begin to turn now we have to take out that 50-day moving average solid push below the trend line from the march 30th low that we're currently testing right here and again a little bit lower if i include the shadow right here but that's the trend line we're testing kind of get a decisive break below it and then come back and take out this low right here and then you have to again get a solid close below that 50 day moving average that we're looking at in this video but all kinds of uh sell signals and reversals happening reversal signals here happening for the nasdaq 100 today and this week now yesterday on tuesday we had a bearish reversal of conditions with momentum here now we're seeing other indicators begin to turn bearish the nasdaq 100 in the daily time frame we had a hollow red candlestick yesterday but it amounted to nothing and we are now testing our 50 period moving average that's a green line you see right there taking out the 10 and the 20 period moving average on the nasdaq 100 continue to have the bearish divergences looming over the chart and we're now getting the stochastic rolling over i talked about this uh earlier in the week how we have these divergences looming over the chart with our topping tail from last week and if we get a reversal of conditions here in the weekly time frame with a red bar and a red cloud this week or next week then we'll begin to see these divergences play out and we'll start moving down to the 50 week moving average start moving down to the 200 week moving average begin to get a sharp decline as i told you over the weekend if we got the sell off the inflation scare this week we could see the topping tail uh end up giving us a reversal pattern which again we're now trying to confirm that topping tail this week by this so off we're down three percent three point zero two percent exactly uh for the week so far we'll see how we close we're testing our 10 week moving average uh just a fraction below it our 20 week moving average of the cloud directly is below so we'll be watching and if we do see the divergences play out it will mark this whole move as a head fake here we closed just above the june 3rd peak we closed just above it june 3rd and then and higher by 1.9 percent and now we've given back that entire gain and we're now back below uh the june 3rd peak and we're down three percent for the week having completed these divergences which are likely going to play out told you this could be nothing more than a head fake a head fake is when you push above when price pushes above resistance but then quickly turns back down times not even closing above it just getting an intra a week or an intraday pushed uh higher in the daily time frame just getting a little big tail above it other times you get a close above it and then quickly reverse now this is also possible an evening star reversal with our uh previous two bars although kind of a sloppy one the wide range bar fall by the topping tail and what is a little spinning top type of a candlestick and now the red bar if we close with the solid push lower for the week currently down three percent as i've said so we'll see if these divergences begin to play out we saw the macd turn up and then quickly turn back down here this week and then we've had the stochastic rolling over and the money flow and it's all over the place divergences uh all over the place i told you if we get a topping tail from last week and we end up seeing just a head fake we don't have to rise to the upper channel line or uh rally any further if these divergences could be complete just with the uh the uh head fake we do have again divergences with the price oscillator the macd and the stochastic it's all over the place and up here on the rsi it's over the place in the weekly time frame so again you're taking out the 10 week moving average trying to for the week here if we take out the 10 and 20 you're likely to move back to the 50 likely to move back towards the 200 week moving average and again we are likely starting an inflation scare along coupled with again the bursting of the ai bubble i think with the earnings see more and more concerns about the ai spendings and return the return on investment could take some time uh to begin to show up on a larger scale now the channel i just showed you was from the 2022 low that's here in red panel goes all the way back from the last bear market low and the one uh ending with the tech bubble and you have this large channel if we go higher uh it's directly the resistance is directly overhead and i told you we don't have to reach it we already slammed into it once there in june and uh again if we just have a little head fake then again we can turn down but we're likely going to head towards the red line the lower boundary in the midpoint of the channel which would eventually take us back towards the 200 week moving average now seen here i just showed it to you on the other chart a moment ago we continue to have we continue to have these uh divergences looming over the monthly chart the monthly chart is trying to get a topping tail much like what the dow and the russell did previously when they topped they have already topped we've got these divergences going on here uh and likely to see them play out the macd does not have a divergence in the monthly time frame by the time it rolls over we'll have already a massive drop price oscillator will do a much much better job than the macd along with momentum quickly headed back to the 50 month moving average that's this line right here the green line here and this trend line for the entire bull market we had the macd roll over yesterday completing our diversions possibly with our head fake uh validating it as a head fake here's a daily chart and we slightly breached this trend line ever so slightly and this is excluding the shadow and it's connecting this low here from this mark to the march low right here if we have decisively broke this level testing our 50 period moving average then we need to see confirmation and a follow through pushing below the 50. you can try to bounce here and we did gap uh we did gap down uh so again we'll be watching this trend line in the 50 period moving average let me show it to you up close here it is right here you can see we slightly breached it testing our 50 period moving average uh i'm again i am excluding the shadow if we include it uh then we haven't but acting the two previous lows so again uh we'll be watching you have a little rising wedge right here this smaller wedge in the wedge broke down so if we start breaking this level breaking this trend line we can move back to test the july low remember the dow and the russell have both already taken out the july low we didn't get that with the smp or the nasdaq but the macd did roll over yesterday i told you i thought that we'd get we'd get the inflation uh so off here these diversions would uh eventually uh play out along with the ones in the weekly time frame allowing allowing a sell-off going into the midterm elections and beyond again we're going to sell off beyond the midterm elections for the crash to kick off the bear market momentum go negative here the stochastic uh is dropping below the 50 level the rsi is moving into the negative region i'm sorry the rate of change is moving into the native negative region the rsi is moving into the negative region with these divergences all playing out if we if we try to balance on the nasdaq with the uh test of the 50 period moving average in that trend line again we have today's gap we have some other gaps and again these gaps do not have to fill they may not fill until much later date a boatload of gaps on the way up that did not fill sometimes gaps fill so watch today's gap becoming oversold we've got the ppi tomorrow again more earnings we're kicking off the earnings season and again a lot more earnings over the next three weeks nasdaq 15-minute chart right here so far we're seeing our diversions play out in the 60-minute time frame again with a potential head fake the diversions we talked about now we're becoming very oversold uh we'll see if another diversions eventually develops here i've included the shadow and the the trend line is a little bit lower on the daily chart i excluded it and we're right at that level right now but we're seeing uh the macd go negative we're seeing the rsi in levels below 50 at moving towards extremes here so again we'll be watching see if we eventually try to come back and take out the low here from september try to take out the low from july which makes up our support zone here in the 60-minute time frame so far our diversions is playing out which could mean we have a head fake on our hands we're seeing more signals turn bearish on nasdaq 100. and by the way we're seeing the weakness with nvidia videos sold off at that black candlestick i told you we're slamming right into this resistance level here and again we're trying to break this level here if i include the shadow if i include the shadow we're right around the close there just right at that closed very similar to what we saw happen with the nasdaq 100 so we'll see if we attempt to bounce or not if i just remove the annotations you can see we're just below the 50 period we're testing the 50 period on the nasdaq 100 and again nvidia and nasdaq 100 will often have a positive correlation nasdaq has followed nvidia but we're seeing these divergences like on the macd and the rsi going back from the previous peak over here we saw a larger diversion it's very similar to what we have on the nasdaq in the daily time frame macd and the rsi also seeing us sharp still off with the the uh semiconductor etfs and the ai etfs it was down three percent today smh was down four percent semiconductor etf and i told you i thought we had an abc move done here and that we were likely starting uh completing wave two and starting crash wave three and i still think that semiconductor etf down nearly six and a half percent taking up a 10 and 20 week moving average in the cloud here we'll see how we close by the end of the week for smh the semiconductor etf and if you look uh at so xx the philadelphia semiconductor etf also doing the same thing taking out the 20 and the 10 week moving average in the cloud here down oh more even more uh down 7.15 for the week smp got oversold in the 15-minute time frame we came back and filled these previous gaps right here still got another one down here still above the october 10th low there and now we have a gap down which may or may not get filled we'll be watching that uh and we'll see if we go from further to fill this other gap if we get a larger divergence it develops which very well could be the case we've got the fed meeting coming up we've got at the end of the month which again i still think they're likely gonna raise rates and shock everybody the market doesn't think that if that is to change with more uh information data tomorrow and with earnings we got taiwan semiconductor earnings before the market opens on thursday at this little tiny diversions is on the 50-minute chart here in the 30-minute chart it may evolve into a bigger diversions going lower before we get uh a real big meaningful bounce we'll see what happens but keep your eye on the gap from today gapping lower the 60-minute took out the 50 the 50-period moving average and took out the cloud and we're testing our 200 period again like we did back over here filling some of these gaps so again end up taking out the october low here if we take out the october low then you have to tip the september low if we take out that support zone then the july low comes into play if this is just a head fake right here and we need to see all the daily signals and weekly signals turn back to bearish and begin to see these diversions begin to play out now again we've got the diversions here having played out with and it's right there the diversions right there having played out now we're becoming oversold again so time to be paying attention uh we may not uh see any kind of meaningful rally until diversions develops we do start seeing smp join nasdaq and getting all kinds of the sales signals this week the s p did breach the trend line today now again nasdaq took it out or or resting right on it it's not a decisive break s p did take it out today and as i told you we're either going to go up uh and try to go back to the upper boundary or you're going to come back and break this level if we get this uh follow through to this break that we had today then we could test some of these lows i just showed you on the 60 minute chart close up this is the 60 minute chart with our trend line here here so again as i said it may be just a head fake and it may be done now this trend line breaks we talked about this yesterday at great length and detail we're seeing these divergences play out the trend line break a little better on the daily chart and the divergences if i uh show you scroll down here to the macd the macd has that now nasdaq's macd did roll back over had that yet with the s p but we did get a break right here now we need a follow-through or right here at the 50 period moving average s p is at the 50 period nasdaq's at the 50 period but nasdaq signals have turned bearish so we'll see if we break down here and if we do uh you got to break the cloud you got to break the 50 take out the 100 the pink line start moving back towards the 200 period and the july low breaking that support zone i showed you on the 60 minute chart a moment ago again i've got a question mark here that the wave five could be done in an ending diagonal we don't have to push up here to the end i marked it if we uh still attempted to do that but if you start breaking this level which we're now doing the trend line start losing the 50 period then that becomes less and less likely the signals all begin to turn back to bearish and we've got these divergences going on here with indicators like the macd and the rsi see it you can see it really nicely here with the divergences with the rsi and the macd the macd has got to roll over like nasdaq but we're seeing the stochastic roll back over here and it's also formed a divergence with this previous peak so we've got these divergences going on and again can spill now over into the weekly time frame we can see those weekly divergences begin to play out s p daily right here well nasdaq's down three percent for the week s p is down 1.19 again i told you we could just have nothing more than a back test going on here and a head fake the other trend line that i've shown you is from these lows over here that we're slightly breaking right now from the march 30th low if we get a solid push below the trend line take out the 10 and 20 week moving average here we're slightly below the 10 right now take out the cloud it'd be very bearish the bollinger bands are tight you can see the purple line here and the purple line here this is the 20 period the bollinger bands are very tight and it's telling us something is getting ready to happen maybe that's why we had the little head fake move or i told you it's still possible we get something bigger but again start seeing signals turn bearish then those weekly diversions this could play out over here we had the tight bollinger bands we moved in one direction and then we moved in the other sharply the tight bollinger bands we've moved up at least just under the bollinger band not getting above it but we could still move in the other direction bitcoin is famous for that and you can see my latest bitcoin video at the end of this video i'll link it there i believe we're forming a cycle top either we go up and push up into that upper boundary rising wedge where we break down and we just have a head fake whichever way it plays out i think you're going to see a sharp sharp decline once this uh rising wedge is done also up to 50 in the trend line here we might still try to work with this area if signals do not turn back the bearish if they turn bearish and we break the trend line you break the 50 day in the daily then you're likely headed to the 50 week over here and eventually the 200 over here the 200 week moving average got all these divergences on the s p 500 and i've marked them if we go to the other chart and mark them here uh so again we'll see if uh it's got nothing more than a back test or throwback of the trend trend line after breaking it can we break the other trend line from these recent lows that i've showing you on some of these other charts