STOCK MARKET CRASH IMMINENT: NASDAQ Weekly Gets a Reversal- S&P500 Turns Bearish- The VIX Breaks Out

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: the market's selling off being dragged down by chip stocks with uh uh netflix weighing on the market oil spiking higher by four and a half percent the things i told you that we're going to put pressure on the market chip stocks oil rising back up as i told you the ceasefire would fall apart it did uh we have the dow down 406 points down 0.77 percent in the low 52 000 area the s p 500 dropped 76 points down one percent nasdaq 100 was down one and a half percent and the russell was down almost a half a percent down 42 percent we saw a bunch of uh reversal signals triggered for the nasdaq on thursday and continue to see weakness on friday the s p is starting to join the nasdaq now we get the reversal of conditions here with momentum here on friday for the s p 500 and closing below the 50 period moving average uh we drop below the lower boundary of the cloud and that uh gap lower produced a reversal with momentum you see the little red arrow or below the cloud right here that means the cloud come the next session on monday will turn red we actually close below the 50 period of moving average nasdaq 100 already dropped below the 50 the s p is now joining it on friday we had a bearish awesome oscillator bar could be confirming a lower high additionally on friday the macd rolled over do you see down here this is the histogram it is now going negative it went negative on friday so we could be confirming a lower high the stochastic additionally broke uh we formed a little lower high here it's now rolling over dropping below the 80 level so we're dropping down off out of extremes have some warning signs the ma the awesome oscillator gets a red bar macd gets a rollover as the histogram goes negative and the stochastic breaks 80 so we could see markets still off if things begin to escalate i'm talking about this video in this video again week and a half from this monday we're going to have the fed next week we're going to have tesla and alphabet and then we get more magnificent seven wall street darlings the following week the week of the feds so a lot coming down the pike right here i don't think earnings uh surrounding earnings are still going to be concerned about the levels of ai spending and i think they'll still be concerns about competition with china so the s p are getting a reversal of conditions here daily chart of the s p the s p 500 could get a bearish reversal of conditions in the weekly time frame next week nasdaq is getting it this week we got a green bar here on the uh awesome oscillator let me just move this so you can see this is the weekly chart could complete the diversions the larger diversions with on some of the indicators from the previous highs but right here we could get a lower high as i've said if we start moving down to get a reversal of conditions and begin to see all the signals begin to play out we got a green bar this week and if it's followed by a red bar next week we could be confirming a lower high on the s p 500 and again you have a lot of signals warning that we're about to sell off and now like i said you're probably going to get a dramatic drop going into the midterm elections while we don't have a bearish reversal of conditions right here are other warning signs and we now while the s p did not get a bearish reversal of conditions we did get it here in the weekly time frame on the nasdaq we've already had it in the daily time frame now it's in the weekly time frame and we're closing below the 10 week moving average i told you to be watching for that cd is about the roll over the stochastic is breaking now the 80 level we had bearish reversal of conditions uh taking place right here right before this big drop back in 2025 surrounding the tariffs over here after uh the january peak the s p 500 that gave us a lower high on the nasdaq dropped about 14 right there the last time we did it had one false signal here going sideways after the october peak now we're getting another bearish reversal of conditions in the weekly time frame suggesting we're going to get a self again i think you're headed going to be headed back towards the april low by the midterm elections i think we're now right now uh going to be headed down towards the march low right here and you're going to see this given back very quickly but eventually i think you're headed to test this low or the 200 week moving average currently at 19 000 uh 256 moving back towards that 200 week moving average either testing it or dropping below it and then we'll be watching the april low but right now you're getting a bearish reversal of conditions uh more cell signals being triggered for the nasdaq 100. on the daily time frame we get another close below the uh 50 period moving average that's a green line we have a bearish alignment of the moving averages i told you this was coming we've had the macd move into the negative region bearish reversal conditions even though the s p had one in the daily and now it's turning bearish on friday uh we've had it bearish here for the nasdaq told you we could already be in crash wave three and not even know it yet uh not even see it uh unfold or i should say not realize it until after it unfolds and we get a candle of indecision on the nasdaq uh again we're closing below the 50 but again look at the 10 the tens drop below the 50 the green lines of 50 the tens of red the blue line i told you to be watching for this yesterday i talked about it in great length of detail in thursday's video that we get a bearish realignment of the moving averages now we gapped lower we've had a couple of days of gaps we may try to rally back up towards those moving averages but given that they have a bearish arrangement of the moving averages you have a bearish realignment of them what i call a realignment of the moving average trio where the 10 and 20 drop below the 50 period moving average and they're pointing down that 50 begins to flatten out that's a bearish realignment of the moving averages even if we rally back up those moving averages are going to be resistance we had other gaps that we did not fill on the nasdaq and as i said we don't have to fill those gaps we can fill them at a later date here uh the gap we had today that we had thursday we can fill these gaps also at a later date we don't have to fill these gaps but we could you get a candle of indecision the candle of indecision uh is either going to be a reversal bar that gives us a rally back up towards filling the gaps and towards the moving averages or going to be a continuation bar that takes us down closer to this 200 period moving average towards the 26 000 the low 26 000 area for the nasdaq 100 compare that the nasdaq 100 to the s p and here's the s p again up close again we're closing below the 50 but the 10 is still above the 20 period moving average and both moving averages are still above the 50 the 10 and the 20 the 20 is a blue the red is the 10 and the green is a 50. so here too we get a candle of indecision in the form of a spinning top looking kind of a candlestick which could also be again a reversal if we go back and try to fill today's gap back towards the 10 period moving average the red line still have the signal remain bearish with the bearish reversal conditions or be a continuation pattern where we continue lower and then as we see the moving averages begin to get a bearish crossover the 10 drops below the 20 and the 10 and 20 drop below the 50 then we can rally back up towards them so we'll see how it unfolds candles of indecision in the daily time frame as we see the bearish reversal of conditions here gapping lower on friday so we're now starting to see some of the signals begin to bearish like here with momentum to see other signals turn on the s p 500 click catch up to the nasdaq which has already had a boatload of signals turn thursday and friday please support the channel please support the channel with the link directly below 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thursday nasdaq 100 and then s p getting a bearish reversal conditions uh on friday the vix broke out and gapped higher now we could pull back and fill and back test and fill that gap so if there is kind of recovery with today's gaps lower uh on the uh on the s p and nasdaq we might buy a little bit more time but you're above the 50 period the green line you've had a breakout of the bullish falling wedge again we had this other bullish falling wedge we broke out of that we throw back we had a larger bush diversions and now we get this move breakout of this bullish falling wedge from the diversions the larger the triple bullish diversions and you get the breakout you get above the 50. so if we pull back and the vix is up over 12 percent so it's predicting that the next two days we're going to get a bounce on the s p uh at least uh any 85 chance of a bounce but if we back test this move uh then again we might see an attempt for nasdaq to go up and test the moving averages some p again trying to fill these gaps we'll be watching i'll be talking more about the gaps in my next video and showing you the levels close up but this is now a bullish cross on the macd so if this starts moving into the positive region and say we pull back and back test fill the gap and then go higher again this could mean the very near future we could see the macd go into the positive territory we could see a surge with the vix if we uh if we pull back back below the 50 or pull back towards it maybe maybe we don't fill the gap until a later date but we could if we back test this move we might try to bounce even if we buy a little bit more a little bit more time with things escalating and setting up for something bigger here between the us and iran it's going to happen the us military is setting the table for something bigger to happen as i've been warning a massive uh warning sign a the breakout here and the last time we got the breakout we saw the s p put in the june 2nd peak and begin to sew off gone sideways as we've seen the vix pull back here so again a huge warning signs the macd getting a bullish cross completing a triple diversions the breakout of the bullish falling wedge and a close above our 50 period moving average seeing the stochastic higher the vix jumped two points higher to close at 1877 the vix was up by 12.19 so again maybe you make an attempt to go back and fill the gap we don't have to fill it at a later date but if we back test we might buy a little bit more time but again this is a huge warning sign that something is getting ready to happen that's going to rattle the market we could be starting crash wave three right now with this red count red wave two and being crash wave three red wave three gaps lower if we rally back up watch the 10 period moving average watch the gap fill from friday signals are all now rolling over so again this is a gap and fill or is this a gap and go we gap down and we just keep going down in the direction of the gap so we'll be watching you guys want to watch a gap see if it's a gap and go gap and fill or a gap and trap the other alternative scenario is still in play but again as i've said i think it's less likely but still don't want to rule that out so we now have another gap here at thursday's uh thursday's close there that we still may attempt to rally back up to but again we could be in crash wave three we very well could be a crash wave three wave two is done here talked about a wxy correction or an abc i'm leaning towards the wxy it looks more like a 333 rather than a 335 mark that accordingly here on the chart a wxy i had this previously uh you see in my 15 minute chart was the wxy it's a wxy it looks like it's a complex correction if we have our lower high end we if peach back over here over a month ago about a month and a half ago we got a lower high we need to get a lower low and come back and take out uh the june 9th low an hour before the stock market closed u.s central command launched another round of strikes against iran uh for uh the seventh consecutive day and again they had struck told iran that they need to acknowledge that the strait is open and condemn the attacks and acknowledge them that they did on the ships uh they refused to do it as i told you they would and ever since then we've seen now day after day of strikes and we've even seen them not just in the evening over iran time but we've also now seen them during the day they are they are brutal they're doing major major damage this is the seventh consecutive night the strikes are designed to continue uh degrading the iranian military capabilities at uh commander in chief's direction the u.s is taking the strikes to a new level we already now have a bridge day happening it's already started they struck the u.s on uh thursday struck and destroyed uh six uh highway and railway bridges uh the mission was aimed to choke off the smuggling routes that's what they're trying to do the smuggling routes for the weapons that they're using to harass the ships in the strait of hormuz so really smart on the part of the u.s doing this the highway and the railway bridge strikes uh were targeted because these are the uh the vital links between iran's central midland and its uh southern coast so they're trying to push iran back out of the south so that they and degrade their capability and degrade them from being able to smuggle in weapons in that area to harass the ships really really smart move by u.s central command to read about what they did here i posted i wrote a little bit about it ran retaliated iran retaliated hitting a power and water plant in kuwait now we're seeing things again escalate further as again right now we have another night of strikes and i told you they're going to escalate the u.s military strikes are now setting the table as i told you would happen these people that told me we weren't going back to combat operations where all these people that told me that we're going to have this peace deal where are they all these people that told me well we have a ceasefire and an mou and everything's going to be great where are these people i stuck my neck out and went against the crowd and told you the crowd was going to be wrong about this people did not understand iran and i understand iran and that's why i was able to correctly predict all of this correctly warned you we're going back to combat operations trump tried the diplomacy route i told you it wasn't going to work he tried it longer than i thought he would i told you you're not going to be able to make a deal with these people no intention of abandoning their nuclear ambitions every deal they make they never keep their word so how did i know all this was going to happen because all i did was look at what's happened in the past with the past deals that they've made even with the first ceasefire agreement how did i know this one was going to fall apart and how did i know iran was going to violate it immediately they did it with the first ceasefire this isn't rocket science people want to bury their heads and say oh no there's going to be this peace deal uh yeah right how's that peace deal working out we're now on the seventh day of consecutive strikes the u.s is just doing major damage in iran this is all setting now the u.s is targeting infrastructure they're hitting uh you know the bridges hit the railway that that uh uh bridge with the uh railway going to russia to stop the smuggling is what they're doing is we not only have blockade with the strait of hormuz but now they're creating this land blockade to where nothing comes in and out and again basically is what they're doing is they're choking them financially to where the regime is going to end up crumbling by the united states doing all this and it's going to escalate further i'm telling you they're setting the table for something bigger now for next week or this weekend or on into next week some type of invasion and it's going to rattle markets and it's going to send crude oil much higher there's they're doing things to take iran's revenue to zero so that the the government their their government can no longer function it's it's really really a clever plan the way they're doing this you don't think something's going to happen still in this crowd oh no we're going to get this peace deal well guess what that we're seeing the infrastructure being uh struck means this is going to get being set uh to get ready for something bigger they're setting the table for something bigger and that's likely next week again trump talked about power there's still going to be a peace deal trump's going to taco and really the us is sending dozens of refueling aircrafts aircraft to uh israel ahead of this potential attack on iran they're not doing that because there's nothing better to do they're doing that because they're getting ready to make a major attack on iran likely going to require boots on the ground they're probably going to take karg island the oil depot plat uh back into place the blockade house officials announced that that was said that was coming next week and trump announced it monday put it back into place on tuesday they have the blockade with strikes going on iran is taking a brutal beating trump's not ruling out taking karg island over this is the oil hub for iran this is where 90 to 95 percent of their oil flows through they could take karg island they could take the southern coastal area there of iran to ensure uh safe passage for ships going through the strait so what we could see what we could see by this weekend or next week if uh if they go forward with this the u.s taking the iranian oil terminal here uh karg island right over here the strait of hormus and again the southern uh part the southern coastal area we could see the united states move in boots on the ground they're blowing up bridges there yesterday they're doing more strikes we'll be hearing about what those targets were those reports may already be coming in right now as i'm making the video but not bringing in the refueling aircraft and and bombing these bridges and these routes to smuggle in uh weapons to attack ships in the strait they're not doing all this unless they're likely planning a bigger military operation they're setting the table for something bigger that's what i'm trying to tell you all those people the markets are priced in something that's not going to happen and that's a peace deal all those people the experts and people on social media oh there's going to be this peace deal the ceasefire i told you iran would violate the ceasefire the moment the the uh the first chance they got and they did they have violated it multiple times trump finally tore it up i told you he would now he's angry because they made a fool out of him we're not going to be going back to these negotiate if they do this negotiation he they would probably the united states would say sign on the dotted line sign the surrender the conditions of surrender you got 24 hours the only way i think that they would do that necessarily but i think they do that i think trump's had enough i think trump made a huge mistake dragging this these negotiations out for three months pursuing diplomacy he could have got this done three months ago seen oil spike and already start to come back down he made a huge mistake and hopefully will continue to be played by iran with their games or negotiation games when they have no intention of making a deal and thought they had the leverage by trying to take the straight here they're now finding out they don't have control over the straight the united states has control of the straight iran messed around they're now finding out again i told you combat operations would resume oh gee what happened combat operations resumed the only way i see the regime surviving is they get into such a weakened state that they are willing to make a deal and they only do that for their own survival i doubt it though because the irgc real uh hardliners they're all hardliners over there but the irgc they want to go down fighting they're the guys with the guns i'm just telling you this is going to escalate this is going to spike crude oil where where all the people that told me that uh crude oil was going down i told you crude oil was bottoming in early july going the gap where are all these people oil has been surging it searched today just got this escalation with again now these bridges and these roadway these highways are being taken out iran can't bring smuggle in weapons closer towards the strait of hormuz all these people that told us the crude oil was going to collapse because there's going to be this peace deal where where all these people at i stuck my neck out and told you what would happen what i told you is happening complete opposite to what the experts told us the complete opposite to what the crowd told us was going to happen priced in something in the stock market that isn't going to happen there isn't going to be a peace deal i told you this would end with combat operations resuming and this will end by military force everything i've told you has happened we're listening to a bunch of people oh you don't understand geopolitical issues oh yeah right i i think you don't understand geopolitical issues and you sure don't understand iran this isn't rocket science it's not hard to figure out you don't understand iran then you're going to be clueless like the experts and like the crowd the people on social media that told us there was going to be this peace deal and the rest of the nonsense and the complete opposite has happened it's going to rattle markets right before the midterm elections as i've said the crowd keeps keeps telling us and the experts keep telling us oh no there's going to be this massive surge right before the midterm elections uh historically that's not been the case with the last two midterm election sold off sharply ahead of both midterm elections in 2018 and 2022 oil jumping crude oil jumping four and a half percent on friday now up 23 since i called a bottom over here i told you we're bottoming in early july filling this gap experts and everybody on social media said oh crude oil is going to collapse now we're going to have this deal we're seeing iran strike uh the the cargo ship and the tankers and hacking other vessels and again i told you that was going to happen and we were going to see crude oil go back up oh gee what's happening oh we saw crude oil bottom and it's going back up it's going to get back above the 200 day i said the only other way i see it happening is if i'm wrong about this being a bottom and we go back here and get a diversion on some of the indicators uh but i told you i thought it would get a higher low it did the 10 period moving average and then it got above that 200 period moving average black line and now we're seeing it go four and a half another four and a half percent higher here on friday watching the 50 period moving average the green line right here and again eventually you're going to break out of this downward trend line the blue line up here this larger bull flag and eventually you're going to go to new highs eventually you're going to take out behind again crude oil went down because markets believe the strait of hormuz it's going to remain open and we are going to get this this uh you know ceasefire extension that was going to lead to a peace deal and happy days are here again and i told you it would reverse when reality sets in and we find out oh there's not going to be a peace deal and iran's going to go back to striking ships iran began to strike ships down over here i've marked it you could see and what happens crude oil goes back up just as i warned you would happen the experts the crowd again completely oblivious to the reality what was going to have uh actually happen for the week crude oil rose by 11.12 a barrel for with the wti right here it is up 15.5 15.57 we've rose fifth over 15 and a half percent we've seen the stochastic turn back up here in the weekly time frame we've gotten back above the 50 week the green line the 200 week here the black line and we got back above that 200 day in the daily we bounced off the cloud the momentum cloud here in the weekly time frame getting back above the 50 week the green line you're getting back above the 200 day the black line on the daily chart that i showed you we're seeing we're coming off of oversold conditions this week we had the inverted hammer here with crude oil no diversions here in the weekly time frame and again crude oil usually peaks after the stock market if the stock market peaked on june 2nd with the s p 500 crude oil peaked before it meaning crude oil is going to go make a new high crude oil peaked over here in early march likely eventually see a divergence develop on the uh macd and on the rsi and crude oil will move above 119 and it will break out of the bull flag as we saw on the daily chart that's going to create an oil shock which is now priced into the stock market it's about to be the markets have priced in something that's not going to happen that is a peace deal that this ends the negotiated settlement of peace it's not going to happen but again the only way i see that kind of scenario is again with combat operations resuming as i told you they would and iran is such a weakened position that they choose survival but as i said the irgc uh you know i doubt that they're going to agree they're going to go down uh fighting or do you know over to over if any of these politicians over in iran even the ayatollah even if they were to go over make a deal with trump and they were to go back iran the irgc would eliminate them there's not going to be a peace deal i'm talking about all this because this is going to escalate and it could escalate over the weekend here even further or on into next week we see some type of a invasion with the southern coastal area of iran and and karg island this is likely to rattle markets and that's why i've been talking about this everything i've predicted is now playing out 100 now the s p sold off sharply if we attempt to bounce we might try to back test this pink line right here this smaller bull flag and might try to back test that and pull back towards the 10 to 20 period moving average if we go maybe a little bit higher and then turn off the 50 period or try to turn right here you might go up to the 50 period but if we pull back uh this is a level to be watching the moving averages the 10 and 20 period moving average and uh this broken trend line we had a breakout of the trend line we had two things rattling markets really three things rattling markets on friday one again crude oil going higher as things escalate in the us and iran to the netflix earnings which again we saw after the bell clicks earnings and the market dragged down by that and then also continuing to see pressure with the semiconductor semiconductors are tanking after hours netflix was down like nine or ten percent or something like that it ended down about seven seven and a quarter seven and a half percent or so on earnings season big earnings next week as well along with possible escalation see if things calm down or not uh or if they continue to escalate further even if they don't move to act immediately with some type of ground invasion or taking back carg island or escalating things with power plant and bridge day and again they're already striking the bridges now so again if they don't do it immediately uh they're still likely going to do it they also have big earnings and after the market closes on next wednesday we're going to have tesla we're going to have alphabet which was putting some pressure on the market this week along with ibm and some other important earnings so you want to be paying attention after the bill on wednesday tesla and alphabet and then we have intel after the bill on thursday week we have tesla and alphabet the following week we have microsoft meta amazon and apple and at the same time that we get those important earnings uh the following week not next week but the week after that we'll get uh the microsoft and the meta and and the others at that same time on the 20 uh 28th we'll be getting i'm sorry the 29th we'll be getting the fed at the end of the month of july and we'll be getting the great decision and the press conference from our new fed chair mr hock we were told was going to be mr dove remember the last fed meeting we had nine of the fed voting members anticipating a rate hike the next step for the fed is a rate hike uh before the year is in and we have five of them uh well three of them expecting one hike five of them expecting two hikes or 50 basis points on jumbo hike one of them expecting three hikes at three quarters of a percent by the way at that time we'll be getting uh that that that same week we'll be getting at the end of july we'll be getting the gdp uh for the second quarter now quarter one quarter one came in at 2.1 percent and they had overestimated with that we have the atlanta fed here again uh at the beginning they were way overestimating expecting uh gdp for the second quarter to be above four percent uh now it's at 1.7 it has been as low as just above one percent so again we'll see how it comes in we'll be getting that at the towards the end of the month with those important earnings and with the fed so that on the radar come the end of july the next fed meeting we could see in a week and a half from now we could see we could see in the fed statement or with uh the new fed chairs press conference fed showing concerns about crude oil going back up concerned about inflation again it will get to the point where markets believe that the fed is going to have to raise rates and they may do it in 2000 they raised rates by 50 basis points doing a jumbo cut but then markets tanked and they reverse themselves after markets tanked the 2000 top again an inflation scare surrounding demand pool inflation 2007 and 8 was an oil shock concerns about inflation the fed did not raise rates back up it's tanked anyways and the fed panicked so whether they raise rates and then reverse themselves or don't raise rates i think is probably more likely markets are going to believe the fed is going to have to raise rates and if they do they'll reverse themselves and if they don't they'll shock in both cases shock markets by doing jumbo cuts as inflation is rising you have to choose either they're going to fight inflation or they're going to support the economy and they in the past have chosen to support the economy i think they'll make the same choice this time at this meeting they can show some real concerns about inflation uh if oil continues uh to rise again is at the end of july a week and a half from the start of this next week