NIFTY Expiry & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 13 October 2026, Tuesday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hello and welcome to calligra market we will wait for some time before others can join in [00:00:06] Speaker 2: and then we will start in earnest what a horrible market right what an absolutely pointless no no wait i'm gonna control my emotions because there's no point [00:00:30] Speaker ?: so [00:00:59] Speaker 1: okay we have some chats which mean we have some people hi everyone and i have no idea what the market plans to do this is becoming increasingly tough every day because today for a moment it seemed game on and the next second we know there's a problem so now we have a bearish piercing on both indices which is not nice because uh yeah bearish piercing on both indices because it's the exact opposite signal of what was there on friday and weekly i know beginning of the week it looks like it's forming a bearish engulfing but let's not get into this is just day one all we know for now confidently is that we have a bearish piercing on both indices and we have a lot of call build up but the good thing or the bad thing depending on whichever side you choose is that most of the call build up happened today so this could be those one day theta boys um especially at 22 500 so lot of call writing about 22 500 at and about 22 500 most of the 22 500 oi is formed today can play out in both ways one one it can act as a resistance two last minute last day theta earning knowledge sellers sorry sellers might experience short cover if 22 500 breaks tomorrow so it is less certain because there is genuine unwinding also at 22 500 put so normally we say last day theta y theory but this time it's not just the last minute theta addition there's also a lot of unwind which happened pcr is weak 0.6 around atm and overall clearly weak and bearish right um slightly bearish bias at 60 40 but watch 22 500 like if it stays below 22 500 maybe we'll just have a next period below 22 but if it breaks we might see short covering because all of these boys wrote their puts today you see it right like 20 to 500 almost like the entire oi 22 350 almost all of oi 20 to 400 almost all of the oi 20 to 450 almost all of the oi 20 to 500 half of the oi 600 more than half of the oi but i mean it doesn't always work but sometimes it works we'll go to fi di data so fi is bearish pro is bearish client is bullish monday change and this is very contrasting with friday fii slightly bearish pro very bearish client very bullish but again this is uh this goes away tomorrow after the expiry so this is bad uh if i sold 300 plus crore futures minor sell fi if i if i sold 1700 cr in cash another day another big cell figure like i sometimes genuinely wonder after all of this selling do they still have mall left to you know record sapiens till you know so this is asking a very good question portfolio is in five percent profit only left i'm having five percent cash all portfolio small cap see it's not a trading call but see anybody who sees this portfolio mix regardless of how big your portfolio is would ask you to at least diversify like it depends right if you really need this money in the next one to two years i would have said go all cash but if you are thinking long term then probably split between small cap mid cap large cap and uh you know wait it out so it really depends on your need like if you're thinking this is the money for 10 years later then i'd say split equally into multiple caps and wait it out and with some percent in fixed income and gold of course but a concentrated portfolio of small cap only is a little scary because see the problem is if we enter a very big correction small cap draws down more than large cap large cap the good thing is it might not grow as much as small cap but it definitely doesn't tank like small cap does if you look at any market any correction you will always see the biggest drawdowns happen with small caps and there's a reason right they are valued often at a very high beta because when market goes up they are expected to perform much better but when the tide turns you can't expect reliance to or htfc or itc to be worth only 20 of what they are in the event of a downturn but you can definitely expect a small company like if a downturn comes i won't be surprised if sensible goes down 90 in value and that is the game which we have that's the game which we know for example a lot of startups have been marked down to 10 percent of their peak valuations from 2022 to 2026 but you can't expect reliance to be marked down to 10 percent of their value rate for probably or a very large bank because their book value itself might be higher so what is happening with crude crude is up two percent right i think crude is up so anyway we'll just quickly look at everybody else before coming to our verdict spx is flat nasdaq's is flat dollar inr so there's a reason behind this so basically rbi decreased the limit for forex exposure it's very highly likely that a bank lot of banks had to cut their positions and that's why this has happened but interestingly for whatever reason if this is a fake breakout then we have we are back in this and we might go lower right but i mean in a slightly manipulated bar controlled currency technical analysis and all is as valuable as i don't know man a b tech degree outside on the station who knows dollar index is definitely breaking out which usually means gold and silver should come down but the problem is if gold and silver comes down against dollar it doesn't mean it comes out down come down against rupees so it's again a very messed up thing the bold prediction i want to make is if bonds are able to go up a little bit more then maybe they will start some kind of a mega rally if i see tlt edv etc going up like a couple of percent point more i would expect them to go way higher regardless of what chacha does oil is at 93 now that's a big jump because it was at 87 now it's at 93 that's like almost eight percent move uh sorry seven percent move that's crazy but we'll see how it goes but so what's our analyst see nothing has changed we are still in a no trade zone because we neither have had we have not had a decisive close above 22 600 we have not had a decisive breakdown below the recent low as long as one of these is not broken maybe best not to play 50 50 trades so that's the truth of it right because no matter what we do now it's 50 50 maybe it will go up maybe it will go down nobody really knows what is what is happening here like on the one hand i can say you know what we should only look at this 200 dma or wma which is broken but on the other hand this trend line is very hard to miss and also the fact that at 22 250 odd levels we have had very strong buying interest twice like all along this trend line we have always had very strong buying interest like this is that india election day before that it held several times here this is election day strong pullback this is uh march 2025 strong pullback again april 2025 this is trump doing some circus strong pullback this was again this year's uh i think again trump doing some circus strong pullback so you can always see there's a strong pullback at this level so unless this level is properly broken i don't think it's in our best interest to sell here so i'll wait it out because i want to see market going above this wma see because technically still it's in channel if i'm like a channel observer i'll stay boss you should be long here but honestly i don't have the testicular particular fortitude to say that i don't want you to be long here only to get see this channel breakdown and lose money i don't want you to be short here only to see a strong pullback like this or this or this or this or this and lose money the best thing to do here is wait a little bit to see see every time index launched from here it has taken off you can see this right every time there's a launch it has taken off launch takeoff launch decent takeoff at least thousand point takeoff this is a launch proper takeoff launch proper takeoff every time it gets a launch here it properly takes off so maybe if we see some kind of stability or consolidation here we'll go up but if we don't we always have below 2200 to short and trust me if you are shorting here right whatever happens next i don't think you will regret missing the first 200 point or 100 point or 300 point boss if it breaks here expect like a 2000 point in that i don't think the last thing you'll care about if the trend line here breaks is the initial 100 points you missed um so yeah jayakrishna says 300 to 400 tomorrow flat close maybe how does inflation rate do don't trust any inflation rate i don't know which country you are talking about doesn't matter devil rupee i completely agree with you prakar sharma i don't think delta neutral is a good trade here because see we are definitely looking at one side breakout and if it breaks out one side the last thing you want is to be in a delta neutral strategy um i think this was long overview permission that's why it has broken also very big inflation rbi has raised rates i don't think any like for a long time we were just uh never mind i can't say anything uh waiting for breaking down of 2200 will be appropriate no questions asked see that's the that's the easiest trade to do if it breaks 22 500 um see it will be the easiest thing to do see this planning for next five years here honestly if this 22 500 and all breaks then i'm not sure five years later will it even recover or not like yeah it's a very tricky thing here i won't want to like if i were you i wouldn't put money in this market uh like if i were you i won't put money in this market simply because if this is going to be a long winter it is not going to bounce back within five years even if it fully recovers your money has become half because it's just flat in five years right and the downside targets are very scary but then i could be wrong so maybe the middle ground which is to diversify half half might be a better thing to do um i'm not sure what the portfolio size is of course depends on that also like somebody who's 60 and retired and printed a lot of money in life through you know his salary and bonus etc with most of his earnings behind him i'll say at this point put all in fd somebody who's 25 and about to build his life a small portfolio it doesn't matter what you put it in i don't think i don't if the world is going to turn out the way it is going to turn out too i don't think no portfolio can save us the only thing that save us say will save us is because we have some invaluable skill which is getting paid a lot that's the truth of it oh data sun's ipo is coming interesting oil looks bullish yeah that is true oil looks very bullish but we'll see because there is one this intermediate resistance vijay other says very scary man yeah that's also true you are at 23 i okay so they shall be very serious okay because um you've been here for a long time boss bull java market you are never going to get rich investing in the market dude oh so see this is what i often tell myself see the reason why i should even i shouldn't be spending too much time in the market is this i'll never make 500 crore with my existing portfolio in market this there's no way i'm going to use my existing savings and create like a 500 portfolio out of it i might just do it if i play this business properly or find another business to do right similarly siddish uh um let's say you are 23 right i can promise you by the age of 30 you won't make 10 million dollars with your portfolio but if you find a valuable skill and make either an extremely cash rich company earn money through you or start a company yourself and earn money for yourself you might just make 10 million dollars uh from that by the time you hit 30 like i'm telling you dude there is no way on earth anybody who is watching this show is going to make 10x the money they already have from the market so what's the point like see um i know a lot of people trade because it's also fun or you know they have made their peace with their life they are not planning to make 500 crore portfolio whatever right uh but at your age the world is your oyster there are so many things you can do maybe you should just you know dude i didn't have a portfolio when i was your age i didn't have a portfolio when i was 25 i didn't have a portfolio and as a 27 or 30 or 35 i did not have any kind of portfolio till i was 40 and i'm so bloody glad i had no portfolio till i was 40 because boss i didn't i know how much time it would have taken away from me uh till that age if i was just trying to grow my portfolio till uh 40 i had only or 40 or 39 or 38 38 maybe 38 yeah i had only one portfolio those for all my equity shares in sensible right and that is one portfolio whose uh outcome i can control i work more my portfolio's value increase i work more my portfolio value decreases but um i work more it's not like the shares of reliance that i have is going to increase in value i work more doesn't mean nifty will go up but if i work more definitely my company's um shares are more likely to go up then so you get my meta right so if you're 23 by yeah please stop watching klrchm i'm very sure you have a bright future one shortcut to short circuit it is uh focus on trading when you're 23 please don't do that so i hope my god it's very grim when i go on this trajectory right um yeah ismail is saying this fun and excitement boss fun and excitement have a cost see cocaine is also a lot of fun and excitement mdma is a lot of fun and excitement alcohol is a lot of fun and excitement um but um you know if you get into one of those things uh days becomes weeks weeks becomes months months become years and you slowly lose grip on your life all right so yeah that is uh that is uh very deep now that i put it uh i have a lot of thinking to do but but it's like my trading boss actually yeah my trading boss when i was in my last trading job you know he told me key bro get out while you can and do something meaningful in life um so yeah so that is our so but then but then again right like why are we doing it we are doing it because if we are doing it anyway we need some sense of what is going to happen but i think long story short i don't want any money in the market right now like now we have come to a point where even the rich are not able to pump the market i really really shudder to think what will happen once the floodgates open right um it doesn't look good dude like i i don't think all these fiis who have been uh selling indian markets for the last x number of months i don't think they are bluffing here like in the last 12 months we don't have a single green like can you believe that like this is four lakh crores almost five lakh crores is sold right so the average selling per month is almost like 45 000 crores 45 000 crores on an average every month fii is selling i don't know i don't know what we are smoking that we think there is a future left here and i i'm sure they're not playing bluff i'm sure they are they're not smoking there is something which we don't know yet i don't know what it is and the other problem is it has not really gone down yet right it hasn't really gone down so i don't know what happens when it starts going down because let's face it right nifty is uh what barely some 4 000 points i hit the drawdown here what's the drawdown 26 400 was our peak right so 22 400 sorry 22 400 divided by 26 400 yeah 16 percent drawdown that's it 16 percent is not exactly what you call a crash or anything right but anyway so so that is our analysis for today uh i think our strategy if you're trading is to hope wait till some clarity comes either 22 600 plus or 22 for 200 minus till then i don't think it's a good idea to trade here let's just uh let's just see who's the winning side and we'll join it right so that is the end of our analysis today we'll see you again tomorrow thank you so much for joining and as usual please take care and keep your capital safe bye