NIFTY & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 06 July 2026, Monday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hello and welcome to calligra market we'll wait for a couple of minutes more before we have more people joining in okay okay but i don't see any chats maybe it's because notifications haven't gone maybe it's because is there some cricket match happening today no okay there are people maybe so i see some people are saying that i don't respond to chats that's because we have two channels on which this is broadcast simultaneously and both chats are merged using a you know uh both channels are merged using a streaming software so sometimes i don't get that get the comments but yeah let's get started so nifty is firmly out of this channel that is without doubt and see this shooting stars invalidation point is the top of the shooting star so normally when people trade shooting stars what happens is they keep this point as a stop loss so it is settling down back to this point which means means it's a support now basically nifty is that actually a support and it has broken out of the channel bank nifty is not as clear because it is still at the top of this trend line which seems to be broken out but it's a bearish engulfing on daily so nifty daily candle uh red marubo zoo but uh it has broken out of a channel so looks strong nifty nifty weekly candle let's see what's weekly candle is a this is a tricky one this could be a oh sorry this is not a human this is a green candle bank nifty nifty daily candle bank nifty daily candle is bearish engulfing weekly candle is a dragonfly doji colored red this could be either bullish or bearish depending on if this week's close is above or below last week close right sure that's a long one oh there is a wimbledon match happening did you also break another day see look at it this way right look at the average life of a person who likes cars racing etc in india like our roads are full of potholes i'm not going to say anything about petrol petrol is awesome in india everywhere in bangalore for example there are illegal speed breakers then traffic is full of all these you know what suvs you know which brand suv i'm talking about then there are people who are absolute idiots who don't know how to drive you know like life is really bad right and you're in your midlife you know in another 10 years you can't get into a low floor car and in the middle of all this stuff happening there's just one thing which you can look forward to watch tv every weekend and see verstappen and win a race and that kept us going for the last four years it was pretty nice right and now even that is gone i don't know what is left in our life so this is so depressing it's so so bloody depressing so yeah anyway but yeah what to do anyway so option chain sorry open interest yeah a lot of call writing but option chain doesn't look terrible there's a lot of resistance about 24 300 so option chain is hinting negative above 24 300 okay but pcr is 0.9 around atm and one overall this is neutral to bullish participant option data we are in the process of phasing out we look at fii's futures data if i bought in cash is there some other catch to it if i bought in cash and bought in futures first time if i bought 9 30 crores futures reducing short oi if i bought 1300 crores in cash which is very rare this is the first table this one this but this is some msci or something this is something else but to see thousand crores plus figure in cash is pretty rare for us we know this is something else so before we go to verdict we look at everybody else s p was flatto but today's this is a fourth of july weekend so tomorrow is a holiday in u.s so we won't see u.s based trading anyway um nasdaq is um forming a bullish harami for this week it's very interesting usd nr is 95 20 so i think i know i think will come down from here indian denier bond yield is strengthening even more that's crazy dollar index is up gold and silver are up uh bonds are flat again uh tomorrow is a u.s holiday because if that's very nice right in us the way it works is if a holiday was on saturday then you get um the next uh monday off that's like such a an awesome thing right oh us was off on friday third sorry sorry i take it back with it friday was u.s holiday so it's not uh monday sorry my mistake so i thought it was uh yeah because it was um saturday correct correct long holiday was friday thank you thank you for every everyone who's correcting me um so then the question becomes what's the verdict right okay so before we go to the verdict i don't know why i have this dog i have a tipster my tipster my tipster gave me all these tips i don't think any of this works so i'm going to delete all of this uh btc usd a lad okay so then what's the word so again please watch crude i really think there's something here because this is not a trend line we drew now it was always there this friend line and this gap is coinciding and then crude oil is slowly turning around there finding support on weekly chart also crude oil has formed like a tiny red bullish army after weeks of falling this is the first week when crude oil has not fallen uh since june right in fact if you look at every other week this so technically there is a green candle here but look at the price action this was a negative week this was a negative week this was a positive week but it sold off so much from the top negative week negative week negative week negative week positive week so there might be something in here in crude right and i think gold and silver gold please watch the space this is the bullish um hammer on gold if currency all does so if indian rupee does not appreciate a lot then you gold in you in our terms will also go up golden university terms anyway seems like going up silver also has formed a bullish harami and silver could also so i think gold and silver might i'm not saying it will go to new all-time it might bounce here gold silver crude all three might bounce here but the question is we are not trading those we'll stick to nifty bank nifty which is our syllabus so a little conflicting because see daily what naren is up 15 percent i didn't know that but nice good for you when to start building portfolios again okay that's a good question so i'll tell you honestly okay actually let me pull out the chart which somebody had sent um because that chart is a really nice chart i don't know why i forgot sharing that let me just take that out krishna i didn't get your chart i got sandeep's chart so let me share that yeah this is sandeep's chart um sandeep patil has sent this um so this is an aliot wave i actually loaded this into gemini also and asked the correctness of it because i'm not i don't understand related to this much but this seems correct and as per sandeep's chart and as per gemini's interpretation of sandeep's chart right um one two three four five and then a b c c will go up to at at least till 18 600 but the catch is we might see a retest of 26 000 even 26 000. so the and uh obviously there's another uh viewpoint here which is uh yeah thoda this is an inverted head and shoulder at least girl thinks so uh but i'm not sure like probably this looks like an inverted head and shoulder right it could be an inverted hns uh move up so if that is the case then we can go all the way to first target of 25 100 because there's a gap here 25 150 is a gap we don't know maybe yeah why not if we can even go up to 25 300 or something if that breaks then we have the possibility of even 25 26 000 again right we don't know that yet but we'll not jump ahead but i'm saying that uh sorry this is probably not the right my point is see i don't think this is the time to short because again my ipo conspiracy theory is still full-blown intact you know some of the biggest names in the country are not going to let their stocks uh come into a weak market so so we'll get to answer your question right um we will have some pump but the point is typically right the good time to do a portfolio creation is uh when you can buy something and forget about it for like 10 15 years not sure if this is a good time for like even if you create a portfolio here what are you playing for like a thousand thousand 500 point more because see nobody could meaningfully create any portfolio in the last uh maybe yeah i mean see let's say you created a portfolio even in 2023 right here 21 000 now it is 24 000 we are up probably 3000 points which is 10 percent so even if you started creating a portfolio at the end of 2023 you are up only around in nifty terms uh 3 000 points 10 12 percent in three years i'm not sure if that's a great return if you had created portfolio let's say in july 2023 19 000 to 25 000 you are up 20 percent in three years not bad but you know this is not nowhere near the 12 to 15 guaranteed uh cagr which all these uh you know stock market peddlers keep talking about um so i would not like i i think i would probably look for um sandeep's uh graph to play out and if i see sandeep's graph playing out i'll probably buy it you know um i'll probably buy it maybe at 18 000 or below 18 000 i don't think i don't think i want to go to this market at this particular point of time right so verdict uh nifty and bank nifty likely to go higher bearish only below 24 000 i mean because then it is back into this channel right if it goes below 24 000 i'll be bearish but right now this channel is intact and i think uh there's no point in shorting here given that it's a breakout here and for the last two months it has been playing out also right since 22 500 we have never been short on this we have always been bullish and it's just been going one way up so i will still stick to our oh sorry i thought somebody updated this thing on oh they updated the um i'll also write this market likely to continue moving up and this last sentence is buy on dips with rr1 so that 18k in 2028 year 8 2028 see the problem with elliot wave is that it is very good at predicting the eventual target but it is never a good one for figuring out what is the timing like elite wave is good at target elite wave is not good at timing so achal madan if you can please write to me with why you think this is wrong i'll be very happy to you know uh advice for 25 year old mba finance student from type to mba college by temple field mba finance finance is like such a may field you know like it's like uh my ex boss used to say all traders all finance people are the last they just put either you're very young if you're if you still have time please start something like a business in a value creating field please don't go join one of those investment banks or you know uh underwriting teams or worst thing you know uh financial products sales etc so yeah that is my advice to you right so you're very young you have nothing to lose try to start if your family does not need you to earn try to start a business in a field which is your passion and which is likely to um create something meaningful and please don't join trading for sure especially in you know because at the end of the day what is trading here there are six or eight usuals who sit and play cards sometimes he wins sometimes the other guy wins at the end of the day nobody really makes money unless of course some tourists come to play in the casino which is basically retail so retail comes donates and goes away because they want kicks but you're not creating anything value of value to the world if you're joining a trading desk of course good place to get rich personally if you are joining one of those hft firms you know your one year income will be generational wealth and i don't say it lightly i'm literally saying one year income of hft people is kind of generational wealth territory but i don't think mba finance is the degree to do that either that would be iit computer science but anyways so try to start something which is not anything except going and joining a bank or brokerage and doing financial products inside because i have done that mistakes that's why i'm asking you not to do that mistake nobody except the poor farmers creating value how about all the pharma companies not farmer companies pharma companies companies that make cars companies that make desks chairs companies that make health devices companies that make communication equipment anything in hardcore science and technology open ai chat gemini cloud all of these companies are creating values here how can you say farmers are the only people creating value aircraft manufacturers satellite manufacturers people who want advanced science and technology if i knew everything i knew at this point of time i would go back in time uh back to my school days and try to do something in pure science here i would have never pursued you know uh mba finance and all of that because because i i sometimes feel no man no joy what's the joy in mba finance the joy is doing you know cool stuff but anyway the point is uh yeah more people are starting family offices yeah that's true that's a very sad thing like if you have so much money you should also try to take like an ambitiously decent bet rather than try to preserve your wealth um but yeah i don't know what you say i think um yeah i think in in that field uh elon musk is the man right he had everything to lose but he he has so much money and he kept on gambling gambling gambling gambling and what a decent man he made he made i think this dude at once the frontier of human civilization just because of his degenerate uh big bits but anyway um i think we'll see what happens tomorrow um uh so so that is the analysis for today we'll see you again tomorrow thank you so much for joining and as usual um please take care and keep