NIFTY Expiry & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 09 June 2026, Tuesday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Kallagre Market, our daily program on Nifty and Bagnifty. We'll wait for a couple of 10-15 seconds, whatever, before we start so that we have enough people coming in. Interesting, interesting, very, very interesting. Everything is super interesting. I don't know why I use that weird accent, but you get the meta. It is very interesting. Oh my God. We got some real crazy stuff going on. Okay. Alright, so first thing, this is Nifty. Yesterday we were talking about it. On yesterday's analysis, we had said that everything depends on what happens at the gap. Tomorrow may be a big gap down on open because Friday US markets bleed. The thing to watch is 23100 will support to hold or not and then you saw what happened today. It opened at 23100. It bounced dramatically from 23100 quite a bit and then it again encountered resistance at the end of the gap zone and then it came back again. In the process, it had formed an inverted hammer. Bank Nifty also formed inverted hammer at a trend line. Oh, so this is tough because, see, it's very tempting to say it's bearish, but truth, the objective truth is that this is a trend line and here is Bank Nifty forming an inverted hammer. This is a bottom trend. Satish Rajaram had also sent the same chart today of a descending channel. So, look at this, right? Gap fill zone, downward trending channel and you have an inverted hammer. Like, how can you not see it? And also Bank Nifty, same stuff, right? Upward trending channel and at the bottom of the channel, sorry, what's it called? So, both indices are forming a, share this tab instead, both indices showing support at the bottom of a trend line, sorry, I can't write it like, I should write it like, Nifty showing inverted hammer reversal sign. At gap fill plus bottom of channel, channel, channel, C-H-A-N-N-E-L support zone. Bank Nifty showing inverted hammer, not very well formed, but kind of an inverted hammer at a rising trend line. So, given both of this, very, very hard to say, bearish. Now, we'll go to open interest. So, here's the thing, right? This looks bearish, but we have a theory, right? That last day theta boys really get screwed. So, if you look at, see 23,000, entire call was written today. 23,100, entire call was written today. 23,150, entire call was written today. 23,200, almost all of the calls were written today. So, basically, in every call, in every strike you're seeing, the calls are all freshly laid out. So, I am a little doubtful that last day theta boys really sometimes get that conspiracy theory. I mean, we have seen it happening in a few. So, lot of call writing for one day theta at 23,100, 23,200, etc. So, maybe expiry will be strong, right? And let's look at PCR 0.6 and 0.9 around ATM. So, sorry, share this time instead. PCR is not terrible because around ATM it is 0.9. Overall is weak though. 0.9 around ATM. 0.6 overall. Neutral is what I'll say. Not weak because this is what matters. 0.9 around ATM. Let me just turn this off. And let's face it, right? This is not a particularly bearish option chain because 23,000 still has a lot of support. And that support did not happen today. 23,000 did not see any fresh put writing. All of these puts are age old. So, that's that. Now, let's go to FII data. This is where things take a dark turn. FII today is bearish. Pro today is bearish. Client today is mega bullish. So, sorry, I did the wrong. Screen share today. And it's very difficult to now correct it. Yeah, I shouldn't have done this. But anyway, so, FII is short call, long put, bearish. Pro is short call, short a little bit put, bearish. Client is short call, short a lot of calls and long a lot of put. So, FII bearish, client bearish, sorry, pro bearish and client bullish on Monday activity. Overall, OI obviously, you know, we know because FII is very bearish, pro is very bearish, client is mega bullish. 8.8 lakh puts short, right? So, I'll just share this. This is 3 lakh call short, 5 lakh put long. 92k put long, call long, 2.47 L call puts long. And this is 2 lakh call long and 8 lakh put short. So, yeah, I mean, now let's look at futures data. FII sold 1500 crores in cash, sorry, in futures and 5000 crores in cash. OI is short, FII is short, FII sold 5000 crores in cash. Verdict chart might indicate a support. Option chain might show a bounce because support at 23,000 and last minute theta selling on calls today. FII data is very, very bearish, long term looks bleak with all cash selling. Trades, if 23,100 breaks on a closing basis, short the market. Trades, if 23,100 breaks on a closing basis, short the market. And I won't want immediate because if it bounces or something, the entire money will go. But if not, we might have a good bounce to play. A risky trade to do tomorrow. Might be selling might be bull puts spreads for next week expiry if 23,100 holds. Right, but otherwise, even I'm thinking long term, we have to short with some, you know. Achal Madan is saying we want bearish, we are bearish. I want to become bearish, but, you know, I'm still a little skeptical of, like, itna aas, aas, aas, aaram se nehi jaane deenge, boss. Like, I think they will trap one bounce. Like, see, if I get a chance to sell at 23,800 plus, I'll just sell the house and, oh, I don't have a house. So, never mind. I'll just bet against it, right? But if I don't get 23,800, I'm really, really not comfortable selling here, to be very honest. Yes, brother, I agree with you. It could have really fallen a lot, right? But if you look at it today's, it did not really fall here. It just bounced today and it held. It's a, so I'll show you something, right? Just look at this, inverted hammer. This is the definition of inverted hammer, right? Like, small real body, long upper, little or no lower shadow. Everything is, I mean, how can we not, and, oh, sorry, wrong. Sorry, sorry, today's my wrong screen share day. See, this is an inverted hammer. Like, look at this. And, you get the meta, right? Like, with this inverted hammer, if we have one more positive closing, then we are back to, again, some kind of resumption of bullish trend, at least in the short term. Wow. I don't know, dude. I can, I can. Iran war, peace deal will lead to a bull run, says Siddharth. That would be the final bull run. By the way, this is what my theory is also. Shelby is asking, is the verdict only for tomorrow? Yes, Shelby, it's only for tomorrow. But if tomorrow there is a positive up move in the market, then we have a confirmation of the hammer, which means it will continue. So, if tomorrow's close is about today's close, the hammer gets confirmed and we continue going on. Why is everybody saying no audio? Because everybody else is saying there is audio. Now, I'm genuinely confused. Is it only on one channel? There are two channels. Oh, okay. Some people are saying there's audio. Some people are saying there's no audio. Now, I'm like, totally. Abhishek Machar is saying, did I pronounce it correctly? Sorry, I don't understand a lot of surnames from the other part of the country. All shots covered today. Good for you, man. No, bro, Ankita, I don't think you should do June puts either. Because, see, the risk is that if this level holds, then we'll bounce. So, let's see what happens if this level holds, right? Sorry. See, Bank Nifty can bounce up all the way to 56,000 if this level holds. And 56,000 is a good 4% away from here. Nifty can bounce maybe to the top of this channel again, which is 24, 100-ish levels, right? If it holds. I mean, max to max, I'm saying. My theory is, if this inverted hammer gets confirmed tomorrow, only if it confirms on a closest basing tomorrow, then we might have one more up move. And after that, we have to see, right? And the other thing is, if you're looking at weekly candle, if there is a pullback in this week, it has completed the bearish piercing confirmation and one more candle cycle also. Also, this bullish Maribosu is a strong support candle. It's not like this candle won't give any buying interest after coming and testing all the people. So, there are so many things which make the risk reward so much more on the upside than downside. Although, if you put a gun on my head and ask me, boss, 2027 tak ek trade karo, I'll sell it, man. I'll sell it. No questions asked. I'll sell it. I'll sell the 2027-25,000 call and sit on it. I'll sell the 2027-26,000 call and sit on it. I'll sell 2027-24,000 call even and sit on it. But to buy the 23,000, 23,000, 20,000 put spread now, that I just wish I had a better level to do that because something, there are many things which are repeatedly pointing us in the direction of there is some buying circus happening here. Look at this, right? Look at how many times it bounced from the bottom of the channel and it had a very nice chance to go down yesterday, but it did not. So, sorry, it go down this morning, but it did not. And now if you look at it, look at everything else. US markets is forming a bullish Harami cross. NASDAQ is forming a bullish Harami cross. Oh, mid cap and small cap took it in the chin today. Dollar index is flat. Gold is slightly up. Silver is slightly up. US 10-year yield is up, which means TLTD, TLT, everything is down. US oil is down, up only 1%, but it has come down from around, it was up around 3% this morning, right? So, maybe just, maybe there is some circus which is going to happen, which is going to trigger a small relief rally. And I think at the end of that rally is when we should really take big shots. Because if you take big shots now and if you see a negative MTM, I don't think we can hold it with peace. So, the thing is this, right? When, when the next shorting opportunity, if we play it, it's going to be a big bet. If we are going to take a big bet, we cannot take a, you know, large MTM while we are in the trade. So, yeah, Dr. Raghu is saying one more bull run and we can short. Pharma and hospital stocks are doing great. Do you see India as a health capital? Dude, like, I'll tell you one thing very honestly. No, I don't want to say anything honestly. Honestly, if you say something, it will be big trouble. Very scary situation. But, okay. See, the good doctors in India are really good. The middle doctors in India are outright scary. This has been my personal experience with, as somebody who used to fall in very frequently because of a lot of allergy related issues and all. What I have realized is, yeah, but then that's the case with anything, right? Good people are really good. Bad people are really bad. I guess that's what it is. Yen hitting the bottom. Yen mein paisa dalne wadoh ka, I feel really bad for them. Is SpaceX sucking liquidity? I don't think so. How liquid are? BXY weekly is scary, says Gaurav. Let's see. BXY looks like it is going to bounce up from here. It's forming all signs of strong bottoming. And, I mean, I think BXY 120 is my, is what I think can eventually happen. But then what does it matter what I think? Dollar is above my pay grade. Especially, oh, this is not going to end well. Okay. But, it is forming lower lows and higher highs. No questions. And, it's not even like, and we are, we are seeing historically lowest levels of DXY in the recent times. Because, in 2010 or something, it hit a level of 71. Now, look at it. It is, dollar against the basket of other currencies is up like, almost 30%, right? 13 AR, not even 30, it's like up almost 50%. So, since 2011. Since the great financial crisis also, it's up almost 50%. So, but at the end of the day, the question remains, right? If you are a large investor who wants to park money in any country or bet on the future of any country, which country are you going to bet your money on? Like, Spain, no, right? You only have US as an option. Europe is a joke. It's like, Europe is like Indranagar defense colony. Every, every country, everybody inside it thinks they are really important. But, all the important people live in Sadashiva Nagar. And, yeah, it's cute, charming and grader and all. That's where it ends. Anyway. So, yeah, I think dollar might go much, much higher. So, that is our analysis today. Tomorrow, we'll see what happens. I think tomorrow, we might see that level holding. And if it does, and if tomorrow there is a positive close, we have inverted hammer followed by one more positive candle. And then it can potentially rally up is my sense. But if it is broken, obviously, view invalid on a closing basis, right? So, that is our analysis for today. We'll see you again tomorrow. Thank you so much for watching. As usual, please take care and keep it. I will say bye.