NIFTY & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 09 November 2026, Monday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hello and welcome to callagra marketer daily program on 50 and bank nifty analysis um i think it's very loud here there are a lot of crackers going off outside i was waiting for it to subside a little bit before starting that's why we didn't start at nine nine was impossible to do this because of the crackers 9 30 it's subsided 10 is the official cutoff in karnataka for crackers so i guess we'll be silent by 11 or something um so let's get started with today what is there to analyze was like i don't know this is the third biggest weekly candle ever in percentage terms in the history of nifty and the second and the biggest ever in points terms but i think points terms means nothing right it's only percentage terms that makes sense and sorry um before we even get started uh wish you all a very happy and prosperous diwali uh so yeah i hope this year turns out to be the best year yet to all of us so let's get started with today's analysis okay so i'll actually go to trading view chart sorry one second okay okay so let's get started so i'll delete one of these trend lines because that's not very obvious that it is the right one but i'll keep the other okay so this is the trend line we drew earlier right this like remember we had a so remember i had a pump theory and we had a trend line and as per that pump theory and this trend line was holding we said it will pump to 25 000 at some point and it will fill the gap so our pump theory was that we'll pump to 25 000 and at one point we'll fill this gap i mean this is not a genuine classical gap okay because it should not be a genuine gap should not have any uh fills at all in the past but you know it's what it is so um we drew this trend line which connected this point this point this point this point and from here it held second time it held third time it fell right and we had a pump theory now the problem is um it is retesting that trend line from below and the gap is also filled so this is where i'll say time for some caution in nifty as it is retesting the trend line it once broke i'm not saying that you should go absolutely short here all i'm saying is we have a gap fill we have a trend line rate test and today as you can see at some point we had hit the high of 25 100 and we closed around 100 points lower bank nifty area so this i'll delete it again see bank nifty looks much stronger than nifty to be very honest um and today's data we can't really count right because today was just one hour of trading and anything can happen but last week we had a proper so there's no point in discussing weekly candles because we had strong marbos all along right and bank nifty does not really have any resistance as of now at least the way we draw it there was nothing from which nothing fell the other thing is uh similar to nifty if we do this from where bank nifty fell that thing's uh high is much higher it's almost at uh 62 000 which i reckon is uh almost at ath right but anyway um so i don't have a very clear opinion on bank nifty so i'm going to delete this just because i am not very clear what's happening here right if we don't know we don't say that's it um but nifty it's pretty clear from the trend line that test test test break retest right so we have to see if it's able to break and close above if it breaks and close above us forget it we are heading to uh you know uh ath straight away i mean at least a little i mean i won't be surprised if we retest ath if this trend line breaks right let's look at option chain open interest actually is interesting because a lot of calls here right put is coming from 24 000 so call 25 000 is the resistance and there's no genuine support till 24 500 no supports formed no supports formed yet till 24 500 so i'm not saying that there are no there won't be supports all i'm saying is that you can see this right this side is slightly heavier than this side all the way to 24 500 i agree that 25 000 is a um what do you call that thing the round number strike but yet call is slightly dominant here pcr is very strong but i'm i have to ignore it because of the fact that a lot of puts were written because this territory is new right there's no action here um so and this is huge this 24 000 put alone but that there's a 25 6 000 counter here but again so 0.84 around atm which is slightly positive bullish rather 1.3 overall that is bullish but puts which were written last week may be contributing because the candle is huge so when the can candle went up there was no there was no call writing at higher strikes there was of course put writing at lower strikes now let's look at participant option data interestingly nobody oh but this is today's data what we look at the friday's data so friday's data is today everything is neutral friday is pro is what calls so now let's look at futures oi also okay so this will obviously ignore it because today's uh is a no no event but fi i bought six thousand plus crore in futures which um really needs a visit to that page oh see look at this this is a mega short covering happening if i bought 13 000 plus cr in cash verdict see there's nothing which is suggesting a reversal yet this current level of around 25 000 to 25 100 may offer a dip pullback because of the trend line resistance may offer right i'm just being very cautious here because this is some i remember one fart tezi which we talked about this is that fart tezi which completely screwed us because we prepared for it in october but it came in november i was very sad man like we we kept talking about the pump that was promised and when the pump that was promised happened we were not there that is like such a disappointing feeling to be very honest like but anyway so um but if that level breaks then our next support is is a huge gap see the the reason why i'm scared of asking people to long here is very simple if you go long here the stop loss is 24 300 yeah 400 or let's say 400 because see not 300 i i'd say because there was a dip here after this 24 500 and from 400 buying emerged right so i'd say 400 could be a which is also the start of the window so 24 400 is my stop loss so it's very difficult to buy here you can try buying a 24 400 if you still believe in the bullish view but the problem is if this goes like this then you're basically now prepared for any like you you see this right this is a unidirectional pump so i'm a little skeptical of taking this here especially if it comes back here consolidates and gives you a bullish signal different story but at this point going long is tricky true longs emerge if it truly breaks this trend line so if it loses ground here we can retrace back to support zone of 24 400 but long only if we break 25 let's see what was the high sorry the exact number is yeah 25 100 zone convincingly like yeah so but i think there could be a scope for some dip here so um can do a tactical shot for the dip with bear call spreads bar bear put spreads but best to book profits early the momentum the momentum still with bulls and the dip may be bought into soon basically they can buy this so basically what i'm worried about is okay let's say we have a retracement here everybody who missed the rally will come in to buy the dip so there is a support at 24 400 there is a support of course the gap fill act does the support uh it can go to 24 000 but like see it's such a huge rally also there's another thing right actually i would rather shot here dude because see uh a candle this big almost always gets a retracement in fact i'm let me stick my neck out and not try to hedge my bed see if we are wrong we are wrong dude we'll hit the stop loss at 25 200 right let me see with sl it okay i i'll not hedge right forget it so now um a movement this stretched this one way and with such a big candle might give a decent pullback as this move was formed without base says along the way in the way of console so basically it's just a unidirectional move without any consolidation right imagine this as an advancing army they did not bother to make any camps anywhere so they just you know just went uh crazy up so yeah i i think i know it's very crazy to say this i don't know what i have had today to say this but okay see we have reached here we are at 25 000 almost we can try a short with 25 200 as a stop loss simply because if it is this stretched we are likely to get at least a one to two percent dip so i think there might be a retracement happy diwali to youtube i talked to a lot of prop guys there are people who have lost anything between 15 to 30 percent of their capital so yeah it's kind of mental big stress short of how do we interpret a vix normally go goes up because people are expecting huge gaps so when there is a huge gap and violence people have a tendency to uh not sell options for cheap which increases vix i'm very happy for you breaking but this yes this is the problem see i gave um you know i gave sensible data trading view charts open interest data fi activity everything to claude and claude said so far all we know is that a major seller has gone away but a major buyer's existence cannot be confirmed so yeah so yeah that is our analysis for today we'll see you again tomorrow thank you so much for watching and as usual please take care and keep your capital safe bye