[LIVE] Pre-Market Prep – CPI INFLATION Live Market Reaction & Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: We'll be right back. [00:00:30] Speaker ?: We'll be right back. [00:01:00] Speaker 1: We'll be right back. We'll be right back. [00:02:00] Speaker ?: We'll be right back. We'll be right back. [00:03:00] Speaker 2: We'll be right back. So, welcome one and welcome all. It's a pleasure to see you all on this lovely Tuesday morning. We've got not a cloud to be seen in the sky. Just another bluebird day shaping up. But as we know for markets, not quite into blue sky territories. But boy, oh boy, was that an impressive rally from yesterday's session. Straight up with a bid underneath the market all day long, continuing to lift even at higher prices. So, nice to see that. And today is a big, big day for proving grounds, not just with the CPI inflation print, but as well as with the QQQ at a critical juncture. Back test of the daily 200 SMA, 8 EMA gap above upper bound of the weekly expected move and Thursday's high. It's a huge spot for the NASDAQ. We'll be talking about it through today's episode of the pre-market prep. So, welcome one and welcome all. We'll get the show on the road at 8.05. We'll give them some time to trickle on into the office. Find yourself a seat. Get on into the executive suites if you've got access and fire up all the terminals. In the meantime, let's go to the tippity-top of the chat. I think it got cut off today, but we will just start where we left off. We've got just Jay today. We've got Oscar Weiss for victory. Michael Herman is here. We have Teacher Russell, Chris D, Steve Davis. T. Bueno is in the house. Nigel Bites the Dip. Roger Tut, Bad Wolf 2044. Is Mr. G out there? If so, apologies. It looks like the tippity-top got cut off. JP McLaughlin is there. Bad Wolf 2044 with the coffees, by the way. JP McLaughlin, Alex LWG, Dirk Fisher Trades, David Price, Randy Goad. We've got Degreeless Monkey, The Fade Doctor, E.T. The Gut Fuel Trader is here. Time Sellers, Cash Caval, Atlanta Zone, Dunning-Kruger, Calde. Good morning. It's time to get the job done indeed. We have Entertain Me, Overthinking Koala, Harry L. We've got Own Worst Enemy 73, Otaku, Aussie Cobbler, Talent 103, Kahia. Holding down the 808 state, as we know. Alminster of Azeroth. Good morning. Duna B. Let's get that Tuesday tango going. We've got Jerry Robbins, Johnny Quidd, Lipid JG, JC, our senior news correspondent. Happy birthday to the United States Marine Corps in Trading Paradise up here in the Trade Brigade offices. Semper Fi to all the Marines out there. Digitally Primed, Jim Brogan, Phillip B. We have the Mohegan Sun, Federico. Blue Spartans, Johnny Quidd. Alfred, Nacho Daddy, Kickin' Beats. Joe Mermont is here. Mean Boy Long, SFD. We've got a new ticker there, huh? SFD. Teacher Russell. Good morning. Who else? Nate Dalton, Marcus GNQ Trades. Charlie J. We have Jerry Robbins again. T. Bueno. Jarrett Mattson. Good morning. Ali Trader. Charlie J. We've got Charlie a bunch of times over and over and over and over again. Good morning. Star Cook. Back three. Good morning. We have JC, our senior news correspondent. Star Man 77. Mainly scalping. Johnny Quidd. Tommy Twista. Gene Jensen is here. I identify as a banker. Marview 360. Zoltan. We've got Ganucci. Charlie J. Again. It just keeps showing up over and over and over again. So I've got to keep saying it out loud. Who else? B. Green. Good morning. Paul M. The Great Canadian Goose. Patrick Jam. I just got booted to the bottom of the chat. Let me scroll back up. See if we can pick up where we left off. Shouldn't be too, too difficult. I don't think. Yeah, there we go. The BMW. The original Buckminster Wallace is in the house. Jerry Robbins. Rosie. Isaac. Swinglong Sean. Scott. Pristine Mountain Payton. Payton. Painting. Leo from Brooklyn. Marcel Fletcher. Jim Robitaille is here. Mike Rosales. Brought the breakfast buffet, of course. You love to see it. We've got 8.04 in 31 seconds. Jeremy Storr. Good morning. I identify as a banker again. We have Arbranger. Algo Linguist. Edgewise SJ. The Baker's Dozen. Traveler 131. INF The Based Homie. Gus Abbey. Robert Cove. Desert Dean. Lazo N. Miami Beach Broker is here. Good morning. It's a gorgeous day in the Miami beaches. The great weather has finally begun. Six months of paradise and bliss to come. Money for Lambo. National Vanilla Cupcake Day. There you go. Cupcake lovers celebrate each year. November 10th. Indulge. PJ is in the penthouse. Good morning. We have Yes Siree. DK PM Trader. Rod. Robert Rudloff. Jensen's. There he is. Good morning. Tamar. Tom R. 87.90, of course. NLG Bacon. Overthinking Koala. McDizzle and the Hizzle. Good morning. Hang flying. Never four. Retired Rocket Guy. Hopium. K Johnson. Salty Vermonter. We've got 8.05 in 30 seconds on the clock. Where is the magic message? Let's take a peek. I'm sure it's going to show up as I keep scrolling down. One Last Ranch. Two More Ticks. Teacher Russell. Plain Man. RJ Profit. Echo Park. Tristan. John Calhoun. Firefly Pivots. XOXOXO Gaming. Three X's, three O's. Don't you forget it. Just looking for that Tuesday tango. Good morning. Hope you're doing well. Sounds like you are. Just a little busy. Cat Kane. Good morning. And there it is. American Psycho. Tippity top of the morning to you. Registered rock and rolled. And copywritten today in rock history. Metallica. In 1997. Metallica unleashed. Reload. With songs Fuel, Memory Remains, and Unforgiven 2. Give me fuel. Give me fire. Give me Metallica this morning. That's getting piped right into the eardrums. As soon as we fire up the morning session. That is for sure. See Link. What's happening? Good to see you as always. All day. Nero. Good morning. Welcome one. Welcome all. You guys know the deal. We got 8.06 in 30 seconds. I started this thing off a little bit late this morning. But let's go ahead and get the job done. Let me just quickly look. One second. I got to go look at the... I just have to look at something. Is this away? Yes. Yes. Okay. Sorry. Just making sure the house isn't going to burn down. Yeah. Okay. No problem. Figured I'd do that now before we get halfway through the thing. And there's no recourse. Let me just say yes. It's all set. Yes. It's all set. All right. Taken care of. Moving forward into the economic calendar today. Of course, it's a big main event for the market with CPI. Inflation numbers will be released. And we will watch and see what we ultimately get. There's going to be a, I would think, decent reaction considering what the market did yesterday. I would have to imagine the market's going to have some response to what happens here with the number. As always, we'll poke through and see where the interesting tidbits are. But one thing I do want to do is get the trading economics calendar up. Let's go trading economics. And let's just go here real quick. And all right. Let's go with category. Prices and inflation. And then there we go. Okay. The Tuesday, November 10th. That's this chunk of information right here. It's just an easier display visually of what ultimately we're looking for. It also gives us the year over year as a much more easier visual. So I like what we're seeing. Also, 930. 930. Why is this not corrected to the correct time zone? Let's go. There we go. UTC minus 5 is about right. 830 AM. We'll look for that information to come out. And that is that. Okay. Tuesday, November 10th. Inflation. What are we expecting in terms of numbers? Consensus view on the month over month for core is coming in here at 0.2 on both the consensus view and trading economics forecast model. So that's kind of a, that's a decent read. That's pretty tame. The non-core read though, which of course is subject to food and energy prices, is also forecast to come in fairly light. That is a decent read there on the month over month. Remember that this type of print here, 0.6, is unacceptably high. That is unacceptably high. The year over year rate is still not even close to what the Fed is targeting. We are looking for a 2% and we're at 2.6 prior, 3.7 prior on the non-core. Expectations for this month are an uptick in inflation on the, excuse me, annualized read. But I was actually seeing something that they were not going to release the annualized year over year. And I don't know, you know, obviously the, the, if you remember back a year ago, the government was shut down, right? So I don't know whether or not these consensus view numbers are going to come in, you know, like, is that, are we actually going to get something here? Becomes the question. I don't know. I don't know what we get there. Is somebody, somebody's going to have to like, try to extrapolate that and figure out what the print is. Cause it just seems insane that they were just like, okay, yeah, nope, nothing, nothing. I mean, they're, they've got data scientists and I don't know, maybe, maybe it's a data crime to try to make up a number to compare to from back there. But they have to have had some sort of idea of what inflation looked like. So anyways, that is the sort of dilemma of this morning CPI print. They're going to give us like, you know, a very normal looking month over month print. And then we'll get no year over year and everybody's going to scratch their head and say, okay, I guess it's fine or I guess it's terrible. And I guess the market response is really what we'll be looking for from that perspective, right? So that is what we've got on Tuesday, November 10th for CPI. Other things going on today. Going back to the normal calendar here, you can see 1050. Logan speaks, don't care. 10-year bond auction, probably interesting here. The market's response to that after CPI should usually be fairly telling. So we'll watch and see how that ultimately plays out. Schmid, Bowman, some more Fed speak into the afternoon. Meh, don't really care too, too much about that. Reminder folks, Wednesday, November 11th, we do have a bank holiday. So don't expect too, too much in terms of settled cash. If you are in a cash account, margin accounts should be fine. But just manage your expectation around that. Bond markets will be closed. Stock market will be open. Thursday, the usual stuff. Jobless claims, 30-year bond auction. A lot more Fed speak sprinkled in there. And then Friday is the next main event with the PPI producer price index. We'll see what we get from that perspective. All right. That is what we've got on that one. Let's jump forward from the calendar here into the Fed watch tool. And as you can see here, we are still looking at about pretty elevated odds, I would even say, of a pause hike in the next meeting. So on December 9th, we will look for 25 basis point hike. That's the market seems to be pricing in fairly confidently. Then back over here, as we've been talking about, the market's getting less confident in further hikes and more confident in one more additional hike somewhere in the neighborhood of March 2027. And an extended pause, right? So we'll get two hikes ultimately further from what we're already at currently. And then we'll pause and we'll see how the market responds in terms of inflation data and whether or not this energy shock comes to an end with the supposed end nearing in the Iran situation. So we'll see. That is what we've got out of the Fed watch. Let's jump on into the earnings calendar. As you can see over here, pretty busy in terms of just a lot of names reporting. I don't know how market moving all this stuff is, but like, you know, Rocket Lab after the close, T2 reported, take two, Zeta reported, ASTS, Marathon, that's digital holdings, not Marathon Petroleum. Hims and Hers, Plug Power, Occidental, right? So like a bunch of stuff reporting this morning, D-Wave for Quantum, Liquidity is interesting, C-Limited, interesting, Wi-Fi, interesting, BitDeer, interesting. Like these names are interesting, but they're not market moving. CoreWeave reports after the close today, they've got a lot of explaining to do. So that'll be an interesting name to see how the cookie crumbles on the actual report. Regetti, more Quantum, Fly could be interesting, Fly Aerospace. What else? That's really it for a while, right? Wednesday brings us nothing of interest. Nebius is going to be interesting. Nebius here on Thursday before the open. That should be a pretty, you know, again, CoreWeave might do a majority of the damage and then NBIS just moves in sympathy to that. But these names, they've been so beat up into the earnings report. Everybody kind of knows all, unless there's something really lurking in the shadows that we don't know. There's a lot that's been revealed about the debt situation of both of these companies. Obviously, the market has priced in its feelings about the, you know, election from last week. So, like, all things considered, I think most of the bad news is priced in unless they have something even worse that they need to tell us in the earnings report or in the call. So, it doesn't mean that I think that they're just going to, like, gap up and rally and, oh, my God, everything's great and this is going to mark a low. But it would seem to think that the risk is to the upside on, like, an NBIS earnings report or a CoreWeave earnings report after the close here today. We'll see. We'll see. I have no position in either right now, so I've got no dog in the fight, no skin in the game, and we'll just kind of take it in stride one moment at a time. Anyways, that's the calendar there. Those are the most important names. Cerebrus, interesting for the semiconductor trade. Cisco, interesting for networking stuff. And, of course, AMAT for our actual build and construction of semiconductors. HeartFlow down here. It's been an in-play name recently. We'll watch to see how that plays out, and then that's really it. That is really it. What is this? Noodles? Noodles and Company reports on Friday. That's almost as good as WD-40. I don't know if we have endorphin yet up in the chat, but Noodles. Noodles and Company reports on Friday morning before the bell. Unbelievable. I didn't even know we had a listed company called Noodles and Company. Interesting. Yeah, NewBank is the South American SoFi for sure. They got kind of whacked on that Brazil election headline not too long ago, and they've just been balanced out down on those lows. Oh, there he is. There he is. The real endorphin is in the building. I think we might have a new contender endorphin to move alongside WD-40 Company. It's Noodles and Company. I just, you know, we'll have to do some examination up in the office, but very interesting there. That's what we've got across the earnings calendar. Let's jump to the top line figures. Courtesy of CNBC, what do we have going on here live? Hegseth holds a briefing at the Pentagon as I believe they started to organize some articles of impeachment for him. It decries the impeachment push and defends the Iran war handling. I guess we'll see what happens. For now, the crude market is certainly pricing in an end to that situation, right? Let's go through the top line figures one by one, as we typically do. The Dow futures are up 21, 41 basis points. S&P futures up four. NASDAQ futures down 40. Oil futures down 215 basis points. 84.98 on the barrel price. Nice for the, I mean, I would hope, the inflation report. Obviously, it's not going to translate directly to this report, but future reports, obviously, is what the market's pricing in here. U.S. tenure is up mildly, up 4.1 basis points, back over 4.9%, 4.903 on the actual yield itself. Nothing that's going to break the bank there, but certainly something of a move in the wrong direction. Let's just remind ourselves. We'd like to stay ideally below about 5% on that tenure, and that is currently where we're at, but an uptick there from yesterday. Let's jump on down into what else is going on. Jensen's affair, right? We know these are old headlines. No, these are new. They're still talking about Jensen's affair. Come on. This news is so yesterday already. We know that, you know, yes, he had relations with a spy. Great. NVIDIA stock edges higher as investors weigh potential fallout of the CEO affair. Probes, this, that, China revenue, blah, whatever. Trade the stock, and if you look at the stock, I technically got long yesterday, like I'm sure many of you did. Perfect. Look below and fail. The overnight low moved back up through the opening print, reclaimed VWAP, and looked pretty good into the close. So we'll see where it goes today. I do technically have some NVIDIA long, but, you know, I'm more than willing to kick it back to the market. If it doesn't want to stick, that's fine. Key report where inflation stood in October comes out Tuesday. Here's what to expect. Obviously, we know what to expect. Whatever. You know, look, look at the picture, right? Fine. Anthropics, that's IPO price range of $70 to $78. Looks to start trading November 19th. November 19th. Oh, my goodness. That's way, way sooner than I thought. Okay. Hang on a second. Hang on a second. Where is, where is, let's go and find, where am I looking for it? Where am I looking for it? I could have swore I saw it. I could have swore I saw this over here. I just want to make sure I've got the latest pricing details on an anthropic IPO. Okay. Hang on one second. Should be coming out right here. All right. All right. Let's just copy this. All right. Let me just paste this where it belongs. All right. Just making sure that we've got this logged here. Why is that not working? There we go. Ticker symbol ANT. That's kind of funny. I thought they would have gone A-N-T-H, ANTH, just because, you know, don't you need four to be listed on that, on the NASDAQ there? Maybe I'm wrong. Unless they're going to, where are they going to list? I'm going to list on the NICY? Seeks, yeah. NASDAQ listing under ticker ANT. Anyway, let's keep moving forward. 70 to 78 bucks, it's a good reference point to have, seeing where they actually come out from. Let's keep moving forward. We've got S&P 500 futures, little change, this trader's brace for the crucial consumer inflation report. Very dramatic type of that headline. I feel like maybe we should update ours. Vision loss. Oh, wow. Would you look at that? There is some, you know, adverse side effect linked to just taking a pill and, you know, not just eating healthy. And I don't know. I mean, I don't know. It feels like to me, and maybe I'm wrong. I think if you've got a medical application for it, then, you know, by all means. But the people who don't really need it, who just take it as a cop out, you know, I don't know. I'm going to, I'm going to hold my tongue a little bit, but it feels like one of those things we're going to look back in 10 years and, you know, all the commercials that are like, if you were a loved one had used blah, blah, blah, back in blah, blah, blah, then you may be entitled to some, you know, some class action blah. It's like, just, just you wait, just you wait. The same thing's going to happen with, you guys remember, um, remember Juul? I don't know, you know how you spell it, but like those vapes, at least when I was, you know, what was this a 2020 or 20, 2016 phenomenon? Like those things are just, you're just waiting to hear the class action lawsuits associated with that, all the vaping stuff. Like, I don't know, not to say that Wegovia and Zepbound are the equivalent of vaping, but my God, um, anyway, moving forward, Riot, a little bit of an upgrade from Jeffries this morning, 60% upgrade from Jeffries Riot. Why is that not on my list? Oh, no, it was Riot and S-E-N-S, S-E-N-S also with an upgrade this morning. Waller sees a December hike likely, opens the door to a possible half point, whoa, half point increase. Waller, come on now, don't be the mega bear. Uh, it's 821, we're killing a little bit of time ahead of CPI inflation, it's fine. Um, Trump's successors fighting, uh, we'll see what happens with some new, uh, I don't know, political headlines will continue to just ravage the market, I'm sure. Biggest movers pre-market, Sinmina, hims and hers, securitize and more. Polymarket says annualized revenue had topped at $1.8 billion, insane. GM, children's place, files for bankruptcy, isn't that a clothing store for, I thought that was clothing. Um, three unexpected reasons the jobs report was so strong. Interesting. PepsiCo to cut a thousand jobs in the North American segment. Uh, what else? Built bets on local businesses. Okay. What else? Iran wore to end a quote fairly soon. No new strikes. Um, stock specific stuff. Eli Lilly catching some love on the CNBC chosen image. Anthropix IPO could make or break the AI trade. Here's why. I mean, it's going to be a liquidity event unless they do some sort of really, really creative stuff like the SpaceX IPO where like insiders can't just dump it and there's going to be certain incentives for unlocks as certain milestones are hit unless they do some really creative stuff to list it. Uh, you know, can you imagine working at Anthropic and you've been working, working, working, working, everybody's telling you how great your company is and oh my God, the AI trade's about to blow up. It's about to be so over. What's the first thing you're going to do as soon as that thing goes public? You're cashing out. You're taking your money and you're at least, you know, dumping a couple mil into the, uh, into the good old S and P 500. And you're saying, all right, thanks Anthropic. I'd rather take my money and dump it into the safe bet, uh, and just, you know, retire on that versus hold all my company stock on the public market. So I don't know. It seems like a liquidity event to me where everybody's just going to rush for the exit. So it really will be interesting to see how the lockup expiries, uh, are structured on that different tranches like the space X stuff, personal loans, no sponsored credit card slot of the day. Although it was sneaky, it was sneaky. It was up here built built is technically a credit card. I believe anyways, last thing on the bottom, it is, uh, not stock specific. So we just zoom out and we say, all right, mission accomplished. Let's go back on over to our Forex factory. Let's say we've got about six and a half minutes to go until CPI. Let's open up our little folder, see the latest release. I'll give this a refresh when the time is right. Uh, but in the meantime, we'll jump on over to the screens. We'll do what we do best. We'll take a look top down, really, really loose analysis just to get a sense of what's going on with price over in the S and P 500. Let's go take a look at the ES futures for our timescale. I'll meet you there in just a second. Grab yourself a sip of tea, coffee, water, whatever it is that you've got at the desk here this morning and, uh, we'll get the job done. See you in just a moment. All right. Just like that, we've landed on the ES futures for our timescale. Let's zoom in a little bit more closely and, uh, we could see what's going on here. Huge drop on that Thursday session. We know this inside bar on Friday, big update yesterday, but not enough to retake the opening print of Thursday, really nice counter trend rally, strong bid underneath the market for a majority of the session. And if you go look at the, not the YM, but the NQ, if you look at the NQ, you can see we actually got a much stronger retracement up towards these highs, right? We're pretty darn close to retaking Thursday's high here. And in the pre-market, what I will just point out, let's go to a 15 minute chart. Look at how tame this pre-market session is. The first thing I want to point out and, you know, we're dealing with about five and a half minutes to go five minutes, 15 seconds to go until the CPI report. Uh, the first thing I would point out is just how tame the overnight session is. Look at this unrelenting bid through the session yesterday. What does this tell us, right? The last seller likely has sold, right? And if there's an absence of sellers, what do we look for? A nice bid underneath the market all session long. That's exactly what we saw. Market pulled back from highs. It made a higher high market flagged at highs. It broke and made a higher high, right? So instead of like, oh my God, we're way back here and we're doing this and it's a lower high and we're chopping around and there's more sellers still to come. There was like virtually zero selling pressure in the market yesterday. Zero, zilch, nada, not a single seller to be found. Uh, and then through the overnight session, you would say the same thing, right? If we had stronger sellers present here, they should be looking to attack this and, you know, offer lower prices. Oh, this is a great spot to sell things, right? That's not what we're getting. We're getting an equilibrium of buyers transacting up here. Uh, after what I would say was a very, very aggressive change in character out of the market here. This is just kind of notable. This does not look like continued selling pressure to me, right? So a very tame overnight. We've got about four minutes to go now until the CPI report. We'll just kind of maybe leave it off at that. It's just the type of buying that we saw yesterday was very indicative of, you know, new money longs and just kind of like no new money sellers really getting involved. We'll see ultimately what we get here on CPI in just a short few moments. And perhaps in the meantime, I will just do some copy paste and write a little note for ourselves on what our expectations are here. Remember the year over year, it's probably just not even going to come out. So let's say CPI expectations. And, uh, let's just fill this out. Let's just say core month over month estimate. What is the estimate? Let me go back to this tab core month over month expected to come in at a 0.2 Previous was 0.3 actual, we'll see what that gives us. Let's say non core. So just headline, uh, estimate. There is for what we have on the non core estimate 0.2, no 0.3 prior 0.6 0.3, 0.3 priv 0.6. And actual, we'll see what that gets us in just a moment. Let's just hit it like that. Uh, that is what we have so far in terms of expectations. And we'll just kind of see what markets do with this. Uh, I'm just going to kind of let it be on the year over year stuff for just a moment, because, um, it seems to me that they're not going to release the number. They're not going to give us a year over year. All right. They're just going to omit that data point and say, yeah, we'll do it next time. Uh, what we can get in terms of year over year is going to be the trueflation guys. Those guys over on X probably have, uh, some idea of, you know, what their estimates are of trueflation one thing I do want to do actually, before I mistakenly refresh, this is take a little snapshot of the fed watch tool here ahead of CPI and let's just archive this. So we've got it as a data point, let's say spiders or no, no, let's just say FOMC pricing for rate hike odds ahead of CPI. All right, good. Uh, that's out there in the world where it needs to be. And, uh, we'll continue along here. So the CPI will come out in just a moment. We've got ourselves approximately 60 seconds to go. See what the trueflation folks are suggesting. Uh, trueflation forecasts. Are going to be on the year over year for 2.8 and 3.9. Obviously again, we're not going to get a actual release there. So we'll see ultimately, uh, how that plays in the next little bit. Incredible. All right, uh, here we go. We are within 30 seconds of the data release. Let's see how the markets respond here to the results. And then, uh, we'll go poke through the report. We'll see where there's, where there's inflation, where there's not inflation. All right, here we go. Two, one, boom. Inflation numbers are out. You see an initial flash to the downside. Thinkorswim is locked up. Initial impulse is to the downside here for ES. Continue to watch and see what the results are. We did break the overnight low shelf. We're not going much deeper than the value area low, which is very interesting. That's exactly where we pulled back to yesterday. That pullback level seems to be holding so far. See ultimately where, uh, where we go from here and whether or not, uh, this, this is going to remain bid off the value area low level, or if we, uh, kind of just move right through it so far, a decent little, uh, decent little hold spot. We'll give them about 120 seconds to let the market respond to the report. JC, our senior news correspondent has this covered, uh, breaking news. US CPI month over month, actual 0.4 missing estimates. There non-core month over month comes at 0.4, right? So put that in there and, uh, our core CPI month of month comes in at a 0.3 forecast 0.2. So a little hot, a little hot 0.2. I'm sorry. 0.3 on that hot versus the forecast unchanged versus prior. There it is so far. That is the reaction from the market. And we do not get year over year figures. I'm not seeing them printing over here. Let's just go to this calendar. Yep. No print on those guys, which is expected. All right. So let's give this another little second here and then we'll jump on into the report. We'll see ultimately what's happening. [00:35:02] Speaker 3: Okay. [00:35:11] Speaker 2: All right. Let's go ahead and, uh, jump on into, let's go ahead and jump on into the actual CPI look. I believe I can just do this so we don't have to transition screens again. Let me just make sure it's the correct window. Does that work? That seems to work. Uh, let's center this thing on the screen though. Let's go ahead and center on screen. There we go. Let's go ahead and let's just push this like that. Nice. Not too shabby. I always forget, uh, the actual little script to run to make this thing sticky. But let's firstly scroll down and go to the correct table. Sorry for all the scrolling detailed expenditure categories, what we want. And then we want to make a sticky header here. Let's just do this real quick. Okay. Let's just say. Can I say position fixed? Nope. Not position fixed. Let me just ask my, uh, just ask a little chat GPT what the correct. What the correct text is here. How can I make this table header fixed? So when I scroll, it stays at the top. Can't do position. Is there such thing as sticky? Position sticky? Oh. Nope. Not quite. Position sticky doesn't work. Let's try this maybe. Let's just wipe that out. Let's just say, boom. Why is it not, why is it not taking? Nope. Come on. I've done this before. This isn't that hard. Hmm. Come on now. Come on. Make it, make my life easier. What am I missing here? I'm missing something. Why is this not, uh. I don't want to spend too, too much time trying to mess around with this, but. That should just stay there. Anyways, I got it to work once before. It looks like I don't have the ability to get it to work again. What we care about is this column all the way to the right. We care about this column all the way on the right. September to October inflation. Anyway. Let's just scroll down. This red box always drives me nuts. That one's easy. You could just delete that element. That's fine. Let's just get rid of you. Okay. And we'll just pay attention. I mean, we could do this. We don't need the header at the top. I thought it would have been cool if we could have gotten it to work like we did before. But no bueno. No bueno on the actual. Read the chat. Read the chat. People have some idea of how to do it in the chat. Not seeing it. I need to do it on the, not on the T head, but the TR. Table row. All right. I'll try this one more, one more time, and then we're, and then we're going from there. I want it on. This row. TR. It's almost like it just wants me to. This is unbelievable. Okay. Hang on. We'll do it one more time. How do I get this? I'll ask, I'll ask Claude one more time. How can I use element style in console to make this sticky? All right. We'll give it one, one second. All right. Let's do this copy. Is it going to work now? There it is. That's what we needed. That's what we needed. We just needed a Z index and a top zero. That's what we needed. Beautiful. All right. Now, now it's working just, just the way we want. Just the way we want. Perfect. Absolute perfection. All right. Let's get going through this. We've lost a little bit of time to technicalities, but I guess this is what AI is for. What we're looking for is anything that has a one handle or above. I mean, we might, if there's a ton of them, just move to a two handle. It looks like breakfast cereal got a little bit cheaper. Same thing with rice. If you're eating a lot of rice out there. A lot more expensive here through, it looks like pastries and such. Pastries getting a little bit more expensive. 3.5 sweet bread and sweet rolls, coffee cakes, donuts. That makes my job a little bit harder when I have to buy coffee and donuts for all you guys. Frozen and refrigerated bakery products down though. Interesting. So food is kind of a mixed bag. It looks like the overall food number was up here. If we just take a look at a 0.5, that's an increase from prior. Okay. So food inflation is generally up feeling it at the grocery stores. We're going to start seeing the cost of Thanksgiving headlines floating around out there as well. That'll be an interesting one. It's the CPI of Thanksgiving. How much does it cost to put together a plate for Thanksgiving? Lettuce inflating quite a bit. What else is going on here? That's meaningful deflation in coffee, roasted coffee in particular. Scrolling down, we have margarine inflating just a little bit. Some more inflation in olives, pickles, and relishes. Okay. Deflation and other condiments though. Baby food and formula. That's kind of an important one. New families, right? Having to pay a little bit extra, not a little bit, a lot extra there on the month over month. Basically anything that it looks like to me, anything that needed to be refrigerated is problematic. This go around energy coming down on the month over month. Naturally, you've kind of hit your peak there. It seems so we can see some deceleration on the month over month. Fuel oil and other fuel is still pretty expensive here. How about our energy services down at the bottom? I mean, not too shabby. Piped gas actually came down, continue to come down. It's interesting there. All items less food and energy. Here we go. Anything interesting that's a standout? Indoor plants and flowers. Okay. Flowers.com. They do report earnings. Who else? Household paper products? I mean, what are we doing here? No. Women's dresses getting a bit more expensive, but they made out last month, so it's fine. Evens out. What else? Jewelry getting a little bit more expensive. Okay. Anything else? Major medical equipment and supplies. A bit more expensive there. Televisions. Video equipment. What else? 4.5 on newspapers and magazines. Who buys that stuff anymore unless they're talking about online subscriptions? College textbooks getting a bit more expensive. And what else? Any other major players? Here we go. Shelter. Shelter moved in the right direction. This is actually really compelling. I like that. This is a big step for Shelter right here. Remember, we had Shelter moving the wrong way. And I would still argue that this generally here is still the wrong way, right? So you don't want to be seeing these big increases to Shelter. And remember, the one before this was 0.1, just to sort of put it out there. 0.1, 0.3, 0.4. We were like, okay, shelter inflation, it's finally translating. You can see here that coming in at a 0.3 is actually seemingly putting a little bit of a lid on that shelter. As we remember, lodging away from home got really expensive in the last few months. Seasonality, perhaps through the summer. And now it's right back down to a, you know, I don't want to say good spot, but more reasonable. What else is going on in the shelter spot? Owner's equivalent rent of residence is unchanged from prior good. I'd say that this is the most notable little look here that the cost of shelter is actually, you know, it's disinflationary, not deflating. It's disinflationary. What else is going on? Utilities, a little bit more expensive here. Garbage and trash collection in particular. And it's, you know, your taxes going up, obviously. What else? Down towards the bottom in here. Hospital related services, still pretty expensive. Health insurance deflating, good. What else? Car and truck rental. Intra city transport, way up. Wow. I was looking for any other standout numbers. They're like, oh my God, I can't believe it. That's it. Those are the standouts. I would say that, you know, I know we have some fun until we get to the services, mainly shelter component here, but this is a really nice, I mean, this is helpful. This is helpful to see the shelter side of inflation come down just a little bit there from a 0.4 to a 0.3. I know, you know, it doesn't mean your rent is going to get cheaper. It doesn't mean that your mortgage is suddenly going to go down. It just means that it's increasing at a slower pace, increasing at a slower pace. So that's what we have through the actual report. Let's go ahead and turn this off and let's go ahead and take a look at the carnage that's still being dealt to the market here. As we can see, we continue to break through the value area low and we've pushed lower out of that area. So the 75, 7, 75, 40 ones right here, not really holding, uh, let's go ahead and we don't need to remove that. We can remove this though. We all know that we missed on CPI came in hotter than expectations, which means that the fed is very likely going to have to hike. And Chris Waller this morning was talking about a 50 basis point jumbo hike, right? So we'll see if they do that, but let's clear this off. And, uh, you know, what do we do? Well, of course what we do now is just say, all right, where did we come into? And is it still a higher low? Let's not forget our higher timeframe perspective. Let's go back up to the four hour chart to start. And let's just continue to take a peek through here. As you may or may not have recalled from yesterday, there was really just a few outcomes that we were watching for. If the market wanted to rally and fizzle off of that, it would be bearish, excuse me. If the market wanted to rally and fizzle off of this, it would be a better step for a potential what higher low, right? If we fizzled off of the election night low and moved back down into range, then we were just dealing with a bear flag, right? And that was pretty straightforward. If the market did this, this, and this, right? This would have just been a bear flag, send it lower, right? We said, if we move up here to the overhead supply level, which is basically these multi-day lows from back over here, then the market could still pull back. But then the idea would be, do we have an opportunity for an hourly higher low, which would, you know, sort of confirm a trend change on the hourly chart. That's a TC, trend change on that. And I think that's certainly in the running. That is in the running. It's possible. We could see this thing play out that way. And that would be pretty notable if the market wants to give us a higher low over the election night low. $7,500 is kind of a line in the sand as a round figure, but also $74.90 is the dead low from over here. All right. So that's kind of what I'm looking at from a higher timeframe perspective. Is this going to brigade bolt us in the upward direction? Now, obviously on the NQ, just to talk about it, because, you know, these two charts are not the same, excuse me. The NQ had a sharper retracement of the Thursday bar, but there's still way more overhead supply on the, uh, on the NQ chart here. So, you know, not for nothing, but, uh, if this is a higher low, then it's still just counter trend. And then this is like, oh my God, send it, you know, lower. So kind of still caught between a rock and a hard place on the nasty NASDAQ versus on the ES, the S and P 500 side of the market. I do think that there's a little bit more of a constructive look here. If we can go higher low and then remount of these prior lows right here. Right? So the idea, if you're bullish is you want to higher low over the election night, low remount back above this spot, 75 65s. And then you're really just looking for a move to retrace the breakdown bar, right? That would be that. That's the constructive look. Now, of course, if the market says no, right, we're lower, you know, you're just going to be watching for a lower high underneath the election night low. Right. And I think that this overnight low currently the way it stands is decent confluence with that. So the higher timeframe perspective checks out my view. I think we can all see and agree with, you know, what's trying to shape up here. We were accepting above the prior lows from over here. We broke that in a major way. If this can now act as support, it would be a beautiful spot for an hourly higher low. And in essence, we would just be building a stair step in the upward direction, a building block, Legos, Lincoln logs, whatever you like, right? There's your Lego. Wow. It's a poor looking Lego, but you could stack the next one up here, right? At some point. So for the most part, I like, uh, I like to see the market responding to at least keeping prices over the election night low. I don't love that. We just kind of like destroyed this little balance range. The buyers were forming up here, but it's not the worst thing in the world, right? Markets do not move in a straight line. We should expect some ebb and flow. And here it is a little bit of ebb and flow, right? Okay. Let's go ahead and clear that up. And let's take a peek over at the 15. We're going to get into the three and a half questions as we typically do. The one thing I'll just sort of reiterate, as we've already discussed is the market had a really nice bid underneath it yesterday, right? And this is evidence in my view that we do not have new money sellers stepping up and attacking the market here. If we did, then you'd see like some more two-sided trade happening yesterday. There's no seller. And instead we just have a pretty strong underlying bid for the market. Obviously the CPI move over here has changed the dynamic just a little bit. But for the most part, the underlying bid, very strong. You could feel it. You could see it. We'll see if that continues on today's session after setting a potential, potential higher low here out of the open. So what are the ideas? Let's ask ourselves the three and a half questions. Let's get down to business here. Number one, where are we opening versus the previous day's range? Here is the prior day's range. We're clearly opening inside of range. That's a neutral indication. Let's move along to question number 1.5. Where are we opening as it relates to the overnight? Not the overnight. Jumping the gun here, Matt. Where are we opening as it relates to the value area? Just a hair underneath. Just a hair, a smidge, if you will, underneath the value area low. And so this tells us that we have some degree of patience. This tells us that we do have, I mean, is it bearish buffer? Not really. Not really. I would say, you know, this shelf here is probably more like the key inflection point rather than the value area low. So I would say something along the lines of, excuse me, apologies. I'd say something along the lines of like, you have OHS, but it's not from, it's not from the value area. It's from the overhead, you know, overnight range. O and R, right? It's overhead supply from the overnight range. Not the value area. I still say not value area. Okay. Moving along to point number two, where are we opening as it relates to the overnight range? We just set a brand new overnight low. The overnight high is up here. It tagged the previous overnight high, the same level. What do we have as it relates to the follow-up here? Well, I would just kind of say that for the most part, you know, this is bearish. We broke through the overhead supply. It's kind of like you just transfer this over to point number two, and that's fine as well. So a little bit more bearish on that perspective, a little bit more bearish, but I mean, risk reward here is favorable towards this overnight low for longs. So let's also maybe make note of that risk reward, though, is favorable. I'm going to write the full thing. You bet your bottom dollar I am. It's favorable for higher low longs right here. Let's move into question number three. Remember, it's never four. So number three is where are we sort of as it relates to the settlement? What's the overnight inventory? Net long, net short. To do that, extrapolate the close. Close, settlement, same thing. How much time above? All of the time above. And just recently, this break to the downside below. So it definitely unwinds the net long inventory positioning that we were dealing with headed into the bell, I would say, with the volume that's transacted here on the CPI. We're probably dealing with a flip to net short, that's for sure. But how much net short? I mean, you could shake to reset the brass abacus if you really want. Shake to reset. And, you know, shake the resets. And it's looking like what? Well, probably, if I had to do the math, carry the three, maybe turning into like 68. 68% net short on the drop, which means maybe some inventory correction would be in the upward direction, which actually satisfies or helps the argument for favorable longs as a higher low off the overnight low, as well as the election night low, right? So that checks out. That makes sense to me in terms of the way that that could potentially play out. All right. Mr. Tahoe, how's the, I'm curious, how's the pre-market trading of options been? I haven't done any of it, but how is that going? Is there enough liquidity there where you can actually like trade them reasonably, get decent fills? I'm going to take a sip of this coffee as we let this simmer. We've asked ourselves the three and a half questions and we'll keep moving. I like Alex LWG's note there. Account for the lacking of the fourth letter in the ANTH ticker. Account for that in the calculation as well. Yeah. I like it. I like it. Zen says there's nasty spreads. Yeah. I don't know that I would want to get involved in some nasty spreads. I mean, even in the regular hours, right? If you're trading anything other than Nvidia, Apple, maybe Microsoft, the spreads have just gotten so wide in a lot of things. Like, forget about trading MU options. The spreads, I could drive a semi-truck through there. See it? See that? No pun intended. Semi-truck. Get it? Get it? Bad one? Too early? Okay, fine. Yeah. The spreads are just pretty rough on options these days. I don't remember the last time I traded. Well, I do actually. It was Tesla off the 50-day moving average, but I don't remember really the last time I was actively interested in trading options there. But anyway, let's go ahead and clear this up. We've asked ourselves the three and a half questions and let's do it. Another yawn. My God. The problem with the options market, I've ranted about this before, so this is nothing new for me, but I mean, God, they ruined the options market by offering zero DTE on every product, right? You want an expiration today? Sure, we can give you that. All the volume concentrates right into the at-the-money strike on the zero DTE option and nowhere else. And so, good luck if you want to play the options game. That is not a winning proposition. So, all right. You would have to have tremendous skill to make that a winning proposition over time. Very difficult considering the way the market's been moving. Lack of trend, momentum, follow through. Maybe we're getting trend in momentum and follow through now. I mean, we certainly had follow through on Thursday last week. Certainly had follow through yesterday on the Monday rip. So, maybe it is time to go back. We'll see. Anyways, ES futures, mission accomplished on the three and a half questions. We can go ahead and get into the simplified pathing with 8.53 on the clock. It is late, obviously. It's what happens on CPI inflation days, but we got to get the job done. Go ahead and see what's going on here as it relates to the simplified pathing with our levels. So, I would love to see sort of a morning washout that tests the overnight low. Higher lows back above, rallies back up. I wouldn't pay too, too much mind to the value area low. I almost think, well, we stutter stepped there on the CPI. Let's be respectful of it. Look below and fail here. Target value area low. I would really say just like a quick flag and higher. The bigger test is the pre-market low prior to the CPI report, right? When we get there, that becomes a big proving ground. Is the market able to do this and then higher, right? Honestly, what I should do is this. One more undo, please. Thank you. Let's make this a JB, right? This will be a little about, hmm. Is that the junction box? Yeah, it will be. I mean, look at the pullback from yesterday. Let's just say J for junction box, as we know. If we come out of that and can remount, great. Bulls still in control. Bulls proving it. Good. If we come out of that to the downside, retest the lows, descending triangle and lose it, you know, night, night. I think that's just kind of a game over situation where, you know, so much for the counter trend, but that's all it was. Let's just say short lived. Short. Lived. CT counter trend rally. Okay, that takes care of that junction box. Should the market just do this? Again, that's fairly nasty. I would think that this is a dreadful look for markets, and we are eventually lower from that. If we do get some sort of like opening rip that consolidates up here, very bullish. I would look for brigade bolts up and out of that nature right there. So that's kind of the way I would approach today. I would think, you know, this is basically the same thing. I would say you go over to that junction box and you figure it out from there. So that's the pathing that I would mostly focus on for this morning. This is a very well-defined level through here. This is not a secret level. This is not like, I remember we were saying yesterday, "My level is so good." Okay, your level. The market's level there is 75.65. 75.65 As a key price point. Value area low is 75.41. This down here overnight low is 75. Let's use the 7,500 to 7,490 spot. It's the same sort of election night low we were using yesterday. 7,500, 7,490. Down here we have 7,456, 7,455. Previous day low, 7,455. And then the zone down here is 74.37. All right, that's kind of the way I see it this morning. What would the next downside level be if we really need it? Below that 74.37. I guess it would be closer to like Friday's lows. It's 73.90s. Let's just say 73.90s. Fry low. All right, so that's kind of the simplified path as I see it. Let's go ahead and take a snapshot of this with 8.57 on the clock before it disappears. And we'll kind of just judge the market's response against these things as kind of a base case here. [01:00:55] Speaker 1: Oops. [01:01:04] Speaker ?: All right. [01:01:04] Speaker 2: We'll take a sip of coffee, piping hot coffee this morning. I might need to throw on some more sleeves. It's chilly this morning. What's the temperature looking like outside? What's the temperature? Woo-wee, chilly. You guys use that app called the weather bug? I use that instead of the Apple weather or whatever it's called. Feels like 45. [01:01:27] Speaker 3: A little chilly. It's supposed to get up to 67 though today. Not too shabby. [01:01:32] Speaker 2: 67. A little cold out overnight. I think it dipped into the 30s last night maybe. No. Mid 40s. Mid to low 40s. We're not in the 30s yet in the overnights. Anyway. Let's take a sip of this coffee. Do I have sleeves here? [01:01:57] Speaker 3: Let's see. I could throw that on. That might be nice. All right. Let's do this. All right. Swapping out. [01:02:12] Speaker 2: Swapping out for sleeves. The back of a chair is good to hold one item. You get one article of clothing on the back of the chair and that's it. Any more than one and it's too much. As we let our pathing simmer. [01:02:35] Speaker 1: All right. [01:02:37] Speaker 2: Much cozier now. That's 10 times better. 10 times better. Then you put the vest right on over the sleeves. Now you're super toasty. All right. Black Tuesday today from Fluffy Elk. Black Tuesday, huh? It's going straight down. It's going to zero. [01:02:57] Speaker ?: Whew. [01:02:59] Speaker 2: Ah. The first frost is on its way. Hopefully not today. All right. Let's take a sip of this coffee and then we will push forward from the ES into the spiders cash ETF. All right. Poof. It's gone. Let's jump on in to the spiders and see what we got. Scythe is not spiders. Spy is spiders. Okay. Let's jump this thing into a hourly chart here. Good. And we'll take a look at this. So, I mean, big push just like the ES to the downside. Same concept, slightly different numbers as we know. So, headed into today's session, we're opening underneath this 749 area. If the market rallies and rejects that, that would be a little bit more bearish. So, just to sort of come in there with the same kind of ideas, right? The market's opening down here, rallies that reject. Kind of, I would just use, well, your overnight range is kind of way up there. But if the market rallies and rejects this, that would be kind of concerning. Probably looking to go back down here. Is this some chance at a higher low like this? Possibly. Give that some credit. This would turn into a junction box, right? Where you come up and out of that, save the day, down and out, and it's just bearish, right? If the market does this and this, night, night, nice knowing you. If the market can get a jump into this range, consolidate and go up and out, that's the bullish situation we just pathed out over a prior day high, right? That is mostly it. Another one that we didn't quite path out perfectly as a translation to the SPY would be a look below and fail. The overnight low comes into that 749 and you have the same junction box as over here, right? So, it's essentially this path to the downside that pulls back for this higher low. But with the stutter step, I mean, we're on an hourly chart here versus a 15, with a stutter step off the open of a look below and fail of the overnight low. It's the same path, slightly different, right? It's just really holding off and not turning the heat on yet, Starman. We've got building heat circulating, so, I mean, I'm sure it's fine. It'll trickle on in. A light snow from mainly scalping in the luring tides of Canada. How about that? GeoTrader, my quant, is in the chat. Night, night. New lows incoming. Okay, well, I guess we'll see. We shall see, Geo. I saw somebody tell me and yell at me over on the good old bird app, X, as they call it. The bird app, the X app. Somebody yelled at me and said, you know, I think this is a really stupid way to trade. I was talking about how on the queues, there's a big, big point here for a potential lower high, right? Big, big potential lower high, right? I mean, look at this. You got your daily 200, your daily eight. Your five SMAs in here. It's the top of the expected move. It's the gap above. Somebody is like, you know, I don't think you want to be looking for a lower high there. It's like, I think that's a really, really bad way to trade. I think you got to just buy the NASDAQ and wait three months. I mean, sure. If that's your objective, buy the NASDAQ and wait three months, by all means, do your thing. But I don't know. I got yelled at. I got a little slap on the wrist. Apparently, guys, this is a bad spot to be looking for a lower high. I'll see if I'm vindicated or not. We've covered the spiders cash, which means it's time to jump on into the NQ nasty NASDAQ futures four hour chart to start, and we'll see what's going on over here. How can we start our four hour analysis other than by saying the chart is moving from the upper left to the lower right bearish be bearish, right? The trend is down. So as it relates to what we got on this, I mean, generally speaking, this looks like a lower high. Looks like a potential lower high to me. The trend is still down. As we know, we generally don't want to overstay our welcome for lower high number three and lower high number four after a liquidation event, right? So, you know, am I equally as open minded to a potential higher low in here to start this thing being constructive for a rebuild? Yes. I would say the answer to that question is yes. If the sort of Middle East situation can get tamed down and we do see crude oil prices continuing to move the way that they are lower and inflation does end up translating to lower in the next little bit and Chris Waller does not have to be a mega bear and give us or a mega hawk. I should say a 50 basis point increase then maybe this is a higher low and maybe the market thinks through that and says, you know what? We could see that as a reasonable outcome. Let's go, right? We're higher, right? So that's something we'll be thinking about in the back pocket as a potential situation to trade against as a base case. Let's move on forward into, let's get on into where are we going? I'm going into the hourly chart. Let's take a peek at the, excuse me, at the hourly. Take a sip of this coffee in the meantime, too. Uh, and what do we have in the hourly? I mean, it's the same thing we were just talking about. Great spot for a lower high underneath a number of key reference points, but also a decent spot for a higher low. I think if you lose the election night low, I think you'd even come back into that Friday high and this would be all right. That would be okay for a higher low retest over previous days. Low would be a nasty unwind of that relentless bid we saw yesterday. But technically from a structural point of view, is it a stair step? Yes. Yes, it is. So ideally, I'd like to see some of that rally stick and hold, and we could accomplish that by supporting here, not going deeper than the election night low. But it's not the line in the sand. Yesterday's low is the line in the sand. Friday's high of day. Let's go ahead and jump into the 15. Let's quickly ask ourselves, it's 9:05. We'll ask ourselves the three and a half questions really briefly. We won't spend too, too much time on it. So number one, where are we opening versus the previous day's range? In range, we're opening under value. We're opening, of course, I need to update the overnight low, considering the recent break. There we go. We're opening towards the lows of the overnight session, and overnight inventory has started to skew net short. It was looking a little bit more net short through here versus the ES. So I would just go on a limb and say something like we're probably 75 to 85 percent net short, which just means, once again, the inventory correction should be in the upward direction, which is already happening right now, literally, as we bounce a little bit off the election night low. It's a great spot. Great spot here for a potential higher low hold and then remount back up into the chop and then potentially look for up and out. If we lose it, once again, not unreasonable. You get here and then you're higher. So let's draw in the simplified pathing. Let's get the job done here and just make sure we understand our ups and downs. Here we go. So simplified pathing probably revolves around this and then you're rallying back up to here, just generally like this cliff where we broke down from. From there, I'd say acceptance inside of value should likely rotate through value. That's the 80 percent rule, as we know. If we do sort of push back off of that, this is fine. Acceptance, you know, checks out buyers recovering buyers. Buyers save it. Okay. That's great. If this fails, right. And we're here. I'd say you're looking at this and then that is a must hold higher low. If we are just straight down out of the gates, this is fine, but it would allow us at least some potential for a recovery effort into the afternoon. If the pullback happens first, if the pullback happens later in the day, uh, I would maybe even go so far as to say like, this is like fizzle, right? You probably don't have enough into the end of the day to make something happen there. If you get there, uh, I don't love the way that that's overlapping. It looks confusing to me. So I'm going to just pull some of that off and instead go like, what am I going to do? I'm going to do this now. I'm going to say the lower high underneath gets you here. You're here. You're flagging it out. Nope. How do I want to do this without interfering too, too much? Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Uh, we'll start with the down. That way the up is a bit easier to get going. This is here. Remount buyers still saving it, right? This is the ideal or not ideal. This is the line in the sand for an hourly higher low. One hour higher low line in sand. It's also Friday's high. Okay. Uh, the number there is three, uh, 315. 27, 315. This level in here, election night low is at 615. This previous day, high zone up there is closer to the one thirties, 28, one 30. Uh, and the break level would be over 235. Okay. Uh, if we come in here with some additional ideas, uh, we could say something along the lines of, you know, obviously if this continues underneath. Uh, downtrend continues. Um, okay. And, uh, if we were to get this probably sideways, uh, that's such a weak looking path sideways. If it does buzz through that, I would think there's lower odds of this, but pretty nice upside there. Uh, the one thing to just remember is that like, you know, this turning into a downside rejection is not unreasonable. You know, a little look above and fail. And then this turns into this. Right. This, this could just be the spot as a lower high, right? Let's just say the spot for a lower high, daily lower high. Let's even say. Okay. Something like that. This level down here is nine. Let's go nine, 25, 26, nine, 25. All right. Something along those lines. Uh, this definitely gets a little bit of this. Lower odds to that path. Let me put that on the right of it. Just that way. It doesn't, uh, confuse anybody on the, with the, the spot commentary there. Okay. So this is fine. Let's go ahead and grab this as a screenshot. And let's pop this over here. NQ pathing mission accomplished. Got that all taken care of and all set. All right. Sip number one and sip number two, and then we'll go from there. [01:14:46] Speaker ?: All right. [01:15:02] Speaker 2: All right. Two sips. Nah, we need three. It's a cold morning. We're going to get three sips of warm coffee and then we'll jump on into the Q's cash ETF. So what do we have here? It's nine, 12 on the clock. We're doing fine on time. We'll get the job done as always. We've got 36 billion people up here in the office. It's a pleasure to see you all. Hopefully everybody's having a decent morning so far. A little CPI morning. Office tends to get a little bit more crowded on a CPI morning. Pretty typical. All right. [01:15:48] Speaker 3: All right. [01:15:52] Speaker 2: Let's see what we got headed into next, as in the Q's cash ETF. QQQ, we should probably get rid of that drawing. No, it's not overlapping. I didn't even spend no sip and poof today. Jay Clark, if we don't have Jay Clark, we'll never know. We'll never know. What do we have over here? Same concepts, different numbers, right? You're opening just a touch underneath this overhead supply from the pre and this previous day's balance. So opening here, rallies that kind of reject and fizzle, pull back. This is your line in the sand high or low, as we just described. Election night low has been removed. It's kind of like straight through here. It's the lower bound of last week's expected move. So if you were to do this and bounce up, that could also fizzle. How do I want to do that? Here, bounce, fizzle and fade. You pull back. You get to here. That's a must hold high or low. If you just do this, choppy. No, you know, probably look above and fail is doable as a short. That's kind of what this represents. But I would just do the same thing as in like, look above and fail. Fizzles out if it's way above all that. It's a different story. Very impressive. Buyers save it. I think lower odds of something like that today, but not impossible. B and I, but not impossible. And this is just like, okay, pack it up. Dead. Game over. All right. That's looking good on the queues. Let's go ahead and continue along into the Russell real quick. 9:14 on the clock. Let's make sure we can get the job done. Yeah. Jay Clark shows up every now and then, and we'll just hit us with a sip and poof. And it's a surprise every time. [01:18:06] Speaker 3: Let's try this too. [01:18:15] Speaker 2: Now the YouTube, YouTube search thing doesn't really help. Sometimes if you type in, um, like you just start typing at J C L A R K. Uh, sometimes it pops up if he's here, but nope, nope. Tactile therapy says, Matt, I trade for a friend of mine and do way better in his account than in mine. What gives? I probably respect his money more than you respect yours, which is a funny situation, but that's certainly a possibility, right? You're probably better at respecting stops. You don't want to lose his money. You're like, yeah, it's, if it's my money, I can break my, my rules. If it's his money, geez, I better not underperform. Right? All right. Poof. Let's go ahead and see what's going on in Russell land. Russell land. Going to be super sensitive to that CPI print. Excuse me. Um, apologies. Uh, so a little pullback here. Nothing that's dauntingly like impossible to look at. I think this is fine. Uh, we know that this is the big spot to hold. So, I mean, this thing could unwind and do this and that's fine. This is fine. Everybody knows the meme of the dog sitting at the table, right? Table rough sketch of the dog is here, right? He kind of has, you know, his ears or whatever. That's, that's so bad. That's so bad. That's so bad. That looks like a real, that looks like a llama or something like that. Not a dog. Uh, this is fine. And then there's like, you know, fly, fire, fire, fire, fire, fire. Um, anyway, this is fine. Meme is exactly what we have going on right here. This is fine. I mean, yes, this thing's imploding on that Thursday breakdown over here. But for the most part, this is a really impressive rally. And this is a higher low, right? So that's the big thing to just represent, uh, with our terrible drawing, right? This is fine. How do they draw that dog? This is fine dog. Oh, wow. He's, he's an interesting looking fella. He's got a little top hat. I didn't know that. Got a little top hat. He's got a crazy droopy ear. He's got some funky looking eyeballs. He's got a weird nose that comes out, like kind of in here. He's, these things. He kind of looks like that. And then his hand comes down over here. That's the, this is fine dog. There he is. There he is. And he's got his little legs kicking out. Something like that. This is fine. This is fine. Something like that. This is fine. Oh boy. All right. Stop scribbling. Stop scribbling. Let's take a sip. [01:21:30] Speaker ?: Ah. [01:21:31] Speaker 2: What do we do with this thing on the rusty Russell? There's a big gap in here, which is my fault for not doing my homework all the way. But we've got to pop this in. You got to flex the art crayon skills every now and then. That's, by the way, that's, that's with a mouse. That's with a mouse, my friends. Let's do that. There's a gap there. Uh, as it relates to the Russell failures, let's activate this overnight low. Right. You do this, this, that's fine. Buyers kind of rejoice. You do this. You have to pull back. You have to hold that remount and reclaim bullish, right? You do this. That is where we say warning shots across the bow. No good. If you rip it back into here, buyers really doing the thing and saving it. Those are kind of the simplified paths I would leave it off to on the rut. Okay. Something along those lines. This is 2800. This is 25. This is 45, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. This gap closes down here at 2770. Okay. That's it for the rut. That's the way I would focus on this for today. Those are the simplified paths for Russell land. It's 920. It's 920. It's time to pack this thing up. CPI has put us way over in terms of time. Um, this on the IWM is the same concepts, just slightly different numbers, right? You do this. That's your must hold high or low. You do something that just kind of consolidates and goes up and out. That looks pretty compelling. Keep in mind, this is the upper bound of the weekly expected move. This is a declining 50 day moving average. Do you really want new money longs into this? Or are you willing to trade the look below and fail on this gap? I would say the latter, right? You should be willing to trade the look below and fail on the previous day's low. If you're trying to get long smalls with tight risk reward asymmetry back in the upward direction. If you're trying to smash this thing long up here, I mean, maybe it breaks out, but risk reward wise, what are you going to put a stop down here? Risk reward like that. That's tough. That's tough. I mean, you could technically have a tiny little stop and do something that looks like that. That's possible. But just plenty of room to pull back and still offer a higher low is the main point. Speed round. Nvidia. Do we want to do anything with this? Nope. I'm probably going to get stopped out of this on the open. Apple. Do we want to do anything with this? Ah, flight to quality continues to step up and be in play. Microsoft. Do we want to do anything with this? Probably want to be long Microsoft. They're choosing it as a leader. Looks good. Up and out. Let's go on over to Amazon. Do we want to do anything with this? Gap fill reversal. Maybe we'll watch that off of a Friday high. Let's go on over to this Googler. Do we want to do anything with this? Uh, no, but maybe if a remount in here gets interesting for risk reward like that, that's possible. Broadcom. Do we want to do anything with this? I think this is shortable on rallies. So rallies that fail under three, uh, three 20, 40 are shortable for Broadcom metaverse. Do we want to do anything with this? I would say, yes. We want to look for higher lows on the metaverse on this gap fill reversal or the eight day. Uh, so meta is a top contender. Meta higher lows, AVGO lower high shorts, uh, let's keep pushing forward. MU, anything to do with MU this morning? No, does not look like there's anything to do with MU. It needed to be up for a short up against that level. No contact there. Uh, Teslita lower. Um, is this going to go higher low off of three 69 becomes the question. That is something that I will watch. What else is happening here? AM Dizzle. I think this is a fade. If it can look through the daily 20, it's obviously pulling back already. So AMD needs, needs work, but AMD, AMD fades off of the 20 SMA. If it can get there Intel, nothing to do with Intel. This thing's kind of just dead for a little while and Palantir, you know, higher low there. It makes sense a higher low over 165 50 makes sense on PLTR. Okay. That is it for the core list of companies. It is nine 23. Uh, we buzzed through it real quick, but, uh, we did end up getting the job done as we always do. Would you expect anything else? We always get the job done. Uh, have yourself a green and fantastic trading session. Don't do anything too, too crazy out there that you're going to regret. Have yourself a, uh, decent day and remember, make sure that you can trade to live enough trade, live to trade another day. There we go. Keep those accounts in check. Keep that risk in check. And as always, you guys know the deal. Big shout out to the usual suspects. You guys know who you are and I'll see you as always. In the next one. Cheers. Until next time.