About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of [LIVE] Pre-Market Prep – CPI Inflation Report Live Market Reaction from Trade Brigade, published September 11, 2026. The transcript contains 15,036 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Good morning. The Friday briefing has already started, so after you grab coffee and Hulk smash that like button, head into the conference room. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Hey there. Can I get..."
[00:00:00] Speaker ?: We'll be right back. We'll be right back.
[00:01:00] Speaker 1: We'll be right back. Good morning.
[00:01:35] Speaker 2: The Friday briefing has already started, so after you grab coffee and Hulk smash that like button, head into the conference room.
[00:01:42] Speaker 3: Good morning.
[00:01:44] Speaker 2: Good morning. Good morning.
[00:01:48] Speaker 3: Good morning.
[00:01:49] Speaker 2: Good morning. Hey there. Can I get you some coffee or Fiji water before heading into the morning briefing? Here you go.
[00:02:09] Speaker 3: Remember, everybody, Friday rules rule Fridays. If you're green, keep it green. If you're red, keep it respectable. Whatever you do, don't blow up your account.
[00:02:18] Speaker 4: What do you think about the SpaceX IPO? Well, I think it's definitely going to... That's not kahia. That's not kahia. That's not kahia. For real?
[00:02:49] Speaker 3: Put it back, Link.
[00:02:50] Speaker 5: Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to the show. Welcome back to the office. Welcome back to a brand new day's worth of trade. We've got ourselves Friday, September 11th on the calendar, and of course, 8 o'clock on the clock, which you guys know means it is time to get the job done, and that is exactly what we'll do in today's episode and installation of the pre-market prep, so welcome one and welcome all. It's a pleasure to see you all on this not-so-sunny Friday. We've got ourselves some overcast skies, some rain falling from that overcast sky, and we just sort of have one of those mornings, one of those cozy mornings where hopefully in the office, you've got a nice light that's able to get dimmed down a little bit. Maybe there's a candle on the desk. I'm looking over here. I've got this vanilla scented candle thing over from fine essential oils, 3.05 ounces or 100 grams. This is unit number one, apparently, for their lineup. Handmade with natural essential oils and 100% soy wax. Enjoy your life.
[00:04:04] Speaker ?: Wow.
[00:04:04] Speaker 5: How about that? On the candle, mind you. So, welcome one, welcome all. Hopefully you guys had a fantastic rest of your Thursdays, and we got through the PPI session. The markets are, of course, a little heavy out there. Well, you know, we'll get into it. That's our job, of course. And in the meantime, we'll scroll up to the tippity-top of the chat. We'll see who's here with us on this lovely, might not be lovely outside, but it is a lovely Friday nonetheless. And we'll see. Where is Mr. G? Let's scroll on up to the tippity-top. We've got J. Cool Trader kicks us off. Not Mr. G. No Friday fever on today's session. Hmm. Mr. G. Hopefully Mr. G is doing all right. So, J. Cool Trader kicks us off. Steve Davis, Doona B. We've got Teacher Russell with the breakfast buffet. We've got waffles, bacon, and ice cream this morning. Mark C. Good morning. C. Black. We have Doona B. Who else? Own worst enemy 73. Dangerous function 54. Three dimensions, three states of matter. Three is the number of you are like today. Good morning to Matt and all the traders up here from The Beach Life in Mexico. It's Patriot Day, a national day of service and remembrance in trading paradise at the Trade Brigade. Good morning, Matt and Brigaders. It's CPI Friday with Friday rules in effect from J.C., our senior news correspondent. Yes, indeed. Day of remembrance. We've got Chuck5085, we have Charlie J. Doona B again, Johnny Quidd. There's Mr. G. Who's feeling that Friday fever? There it is. It was just a little bit lower in the chat. Mr. G7777, who's feeling that Friday fever? Don't forget to sign in at the like desk if you haven't done so already for complimentary popcorn this morning on Mr. G at the like desk. Just a little bit impatient this morning. That's on me. We've got Time Sellers. Jim Brogan is here. C. Black. Al Dragon. Jim Brogan brought the coffee. Azo is the Fed tracker. Fred is here. Texas Badger. We have Charlie J. Mad Trade King. Armstrong Capital. Who else is here? Zach Werner. We have Otaku. Dr. Zenni ZHD. Good morning. Who else? Mean Boy Long. QXO. Happy belated birthday to CBlack47 in the chat from Mr. G with the 199. How about that? Happy belated birthday to CBlack indeed. We have The Great Canadian Goose. Good Energy 725. Lipid JG. Degreeless Monkey is here. Giggling Bear. Classic. Swing Long Sean. Good morning. Kahia. Holding down the 808 state. We're not going to get you mixed up with the later crowd today. We'll get you bright and early. We've got INF The Based Homie. Good to see you. Good to see you as always. We've got Peppy Trades 716. Yes, no, maybe. I don't know. We have, who else is here? Pandemonium. Johnny Quidd. Leo from Brooklyn. We have Atlanta Zone. KK Bionic. A lot of repeats. A lot of conversation. I love to see the conversation. I love to see the back and forth. I love to see you guys chopping it up here in the office before we get things kicked off. Pono Hono is in the house. Who else? Roger Tut. Good to see you. Starman77. We have Hero Trader. Market Reed. Who else? Just a huge conversation up there at the tippity top. Gucci. Sasha. Schlumpkin. Banana Autonomous. Renee F. Friend in the market. Jim Robitaille is in the house. Trading today for tomorrow. We've got Scotty Clackle, a.k.a. Scotty Maserati. Blackhawk4949. Who else? Tredacious Cowboy. Pono. Again. Who else? Who else is here? Ned. Good morning. Renegade 600. The Baker's Dozen. We have Starlight CNX. Miss Legato in the house. Cipriana. How are we doing on time? 8.05 on the clock, which you guys know means it is time to take a look for that magic message. We do have Desert Dean here on this 25th anniversary of 9-11. Take a moment to remember those we lost on that day and those who passed as a result of their service there. Yes, indeed. Today is that day of remembrance. It is 9-11. We should maybe have a moment of silence before we transition to the charts perhaps today. Maybe that's what we do. I think that sounds about right. Federico. Good morning. I identify as a banker. Robert Rudoloff. We have Duna B again. There we go. Scrolling on down. Where is the magic message? Where is it? I'm looking. There it is. There it is. Louis Graham comes before it. Mr. G comes before it. We've got Patrick B. Slow trail runner. Magzy 70. Nah, nope. Sorry. My eyes deceive me. It's a combination of Zenni and Mr. G. My eyes go Magzy 77. I'm looking for that. I think that's in here usually around this chunk. But my eyes deceive me. We do have Garrett M. C-Link is here. Gutfield Trader. Who else? Defined. Dan Duthie. The whole gang. And then where is it? I had to scroll up before I could scroll back down. American Psycho Capital. There we go. Tippity top of the morning to you. Registered bread and copywritten. Happy National Hot Cross Bun Day, which invites everybody to enjoy the sweet, spiced, fruit-filled pastry. There we got it. Doug is in the house getting some early squats done. Some early, early squats from Doug today. Juliet Whiskey. We've got Cat Kane. Good morning. Black Hawk. We've got a couple times in there. Good morning. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. Let's go ahead and let's go through it. Let's see what we got on the economic calendar for today's session. Ready? Here we go. On the calendar. Let's just take a peek. We know we're dealing with CPI. That's the main event for today's session. There's obviously a pretty big moment coming out here at 830. The market is highly anticipating this report. And we know it's because Mr. Kevin Warsh is on the hot seat, in the hot seat, as of right now. The market is clearly expecting him to raise rates in the next meeting, which is next Wednesday. And the market knows that he doesn't want to raise rates. Otherwise, Scott Besant wouldn't be throwing everything at the market he possibly could to keep rates on the long end lower. So much for that $6 billion bond bazooka. It was basically turned right around and pointed at him. And bonds continue to sell off to some of the lowest levels we've seen in a very, very long time. So CPI, the inflation print, will be an extremely important read for the market to get a grasp on whether or not we do need to hike or not hike rates in the next meeting. And I think it's all about how the market responds to this information, right? You could get a really atrocious number here. And yet, if the market starts to rip, I think we take that as a signal itself. If we get a really, you know, let's say we get a really bad number and the market starts to rip, I guess that's atrocious. If we get a good number and the market starts to rip, you know, that's a signal of itself as well. So not, you know, yeah, of course, I want to know what the actual number is here. I want to sort of think through that logically. But the market's response is everything at 830. We'll watch that very closely as to how this ultimately comes into play. All right. That is that 10 o'clock time frame. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. And we will go from there. Let's go ahead and move into our, yeah, let's just take a look at what's happening next week. Just as an FYI, anybody who's, you know, planning on carrying anything over the weekend. Monday, you get a freebie. There's nothing really going on on Monday's session. Empire State Manufacturing in the pre-market on Tuesday. And then you can see, of course, on Wednesday, it's the major FOMC event. We, of course, will be live streaming that. See what Mr. Kdeb has for us in the afternoon session there, the 230 press conference, and how he's either going to have to explain himself as to why they did not move on rates in the meeting, or if he can say, yeah, you know, we just, we had to do it. Inflation is unacceptably high. That's what I said at Jackson Hole. And, you know, we had to follow through and deliver on that message. So that is next week. Just a quick runway into the early stages. Monday is a freebie. You'll have a day to adjust whatever's going on over there. You do have the BRICS Summit over the weekend, it appears. If I just scroll down, day one of the BRICS Summit kicks off on Saturday. So, remember, these are not necessarily the most friendly people in terms of our allies and whatnot. So, yeah, you know, it's just something to keep an open mind to in case there's some headlines that come out of that. There's some retaliatory headlines that come out of that. Oh, you better not do XYZ. Oh, if we see you doing XYZ, you know. I'm sure there's going to be some, you know, commentary about the petrodollar and yada, yada, yada. So, just keep that in the back of your brain. If you are swinging stuff over the weekend, that is what you're up against. With that being said, let's jump on into the Fed watch tool, right? We know that we're watching CPI this morning basically as a metric for the FOMC and what we should expect from the Fed. Look at these odds. I mean, just the other day, right? The market was saying what? Just the other day, the market was saying 52% odds of a hike. That was prior to the labor report last Friday. And now here we are, a week later, at 69.4% odds of a hike. That certainly seems like an increase to me. As a matter of fact, let's maybe just screenshot this to have it on record before the CPI report comes out. Let's just grab a screenshot of this. I'm just going to paste it over here and say Fed odds ahead of CPI. Let's see if Kdub needs to make a move. All right, good. That's where that needs to be. And we'll see where we go from there. Let's jump on into the top line figures courtesy of CNBC. No, how about the earnings calendar courtesy of X? We have Oracle earnings to deal with from after the close yesterday. Oracle was up. I don't know if it's still settling on the top side of its move. Oracle, violent, but it is opening slightly higher, slightly higher than the prior session. If I go look at Adobe, Adobe, Adobe lower on earnings headed into this morning session. And RH restoration hardware is slightly higher headed into today's session, but nothing that is overwhelming in the sense of like, wow, I can't believe it's gapping up 100 points. That's not really what we're working with. So Oracle, Adobe restoration hardware, those are the names that reported. And as of right now, I would say Oracle is the one to focus on. The other two, eh, not so interesting. I suppose you could read into the Adobe chart as being a little bit lackluster for the software side of the market, right? Let's jump now over to the top line figures courtesy of CNBC. Not so courtesy or courteous, these guys. Let's just kind of see, oh, what the heck's up with that? My drawing tool did not want to extend all the way. Let's try that one more time. There we go. The Dow futures are up about 57 basis points. The S&P futures, 55 basis points. NASDAQ futures up a whopping 64 basis points ahead of the inflation data. The CPI report just coming out, by the way, in approximately 18 minutes. Oil futures got kind of walloped overnight down about 325 basis points. But I mean, come on now, folks. This is 99, 15, 99, 20 now on the barrel price itself. This is not underneath that magical $85 shelf. As a matter of fact, we're knocking on the door basically of the same extreme highs as to what we were dealing with over on the basically the start of the war. Hey, we're going to go drop some bombs on this mountain and hopefully just call it a day. Okay. Big crude spike. Oh, no. This is going to be prolonged. Huge crude spike. We're back up at those levels. Like around 100 plus bucks a barrel in the crude market is not what we want to see. The market's basically showing you, hey, we believe that this thing is going to be prolonged, right? There was a headline. I don't remember if we read it in the headlines yesterday morning or if it was a tweet at some point or whatever, but they were saying 2029, 2029 were some forecasts as to how long this thing may last. So there you have it. Oil futures are down, but still up generally over the span of the last few days. The US 10 year is up as well. I mean, my goodness, we're knocking on a 5% 10 year yield. We're up 1.3 basis points here, 4.957 on the actual yield itself. A little uncomfortable considering what the market has been used to. Money is supposed to be free, I thought. Come on now. Let's clear that up and let's take a look through the big headlines this morning. Friday's CPI inflation report is even more important than usual. We know why. The Dow futures jumped more than 200 basis points as oil prices slide. Treasury yields steady themselves after traders await consumer inflation data amid oil price pressure. Yeah, fine. Houthis seize key port in Yemen, advance other vital choke points. Besant says a large bank will be sanctioned next week as a part of the Iranian strategy. Well, Besant's strategy to bring out the bond bazooka has not been working. We'll see if that works and does anything for markets. 25 years later, after 9-11, the US starts rolling back travel restrictions from liquids to gate access. Friday's biggest analyst calls, Nvidia, SpaceX, Tesla, Palantir, Shopify, Oracle, and more. Interesting. Oracle is the only name on that list from the earnings lineup. Nvidia is interesting, of course, on the higher low pullback. SpaceX, interesting sort of pin yesterday at $150, the IPO open. Tesla, with some interesting relative strength. Palantir, just kind of can't figure out if it wants up or down. Shopify, certainly looked like lower. And Oracle, gapping up on earnings. Oil prices fall sharply after double-digit weak gains above 100%, $100. Yeah, I mean, a pullback for sure. I don't know about, you know, let's relax here, right? If we're just talking about $100, and then we scroll back up and we see the top line print at $99.58, I mean, really? Really? We were talking about $102.50s yesterday, so, you know, we're down maybe $3 or something like that, but my goodness, that's not a huge move to the downside. It's not like this is collapsing. Biggest movers, pre-market, GameStop, Oracle, Adobe, Restoration Hardware, and more. Trump dismisses AI extinction risks amid more warnings from OpenAI and Anthropic Insiders. Yeah, people talking about, like, 4D chests from China, they're planting stuff over here to say, like, oh, you know, don't keep building data centers. You guys don't need AI. Just don't worry about it. It's going to kill everybody anyways. I don't know what to make of all of it. Probably the truth is always somewhere in the middle. Elon Musk's boring company turns to the Middle East for expansion and reaching $23 billion valuation. Diesel prices up over $6 a gallon, a record high, as Ukraine and Iran ripples through the economy. Sure, makes sense. Wealthy investors pouring billions into this new tax strategy despite the risks. What is that strategy? What are we working with over here? What are we working with? Buying mega yachts? Is that it? Just hide your money in a mega yacht? Let's see. Long, short strategies. Tails have surged. Yada, yada, yada. The strategy seek to track equity indexes while generating tax losses that can offset capital gains. Fair. I mean, there's some ETFs that exist that kind of do that for you, from what I understand. Probably a pretty high expense ratio, but anyway. Oil shock is testing private credits. Trump says he has no regrets about starting the war. Oracle jumped 6%. 30% revenue growth fueled by AI cloud demand. There you have it. Fears of AI self-improvement are causing existential concerns. We just saw that headline. Global refiners. Smartphone makers are abandoning the sub $100 price point. Chinese AI lab secretly used millions of cloud exchanges to train their models, Anthropic says Shopify has been under pressure this year. The decline is overblown from Bernstein, giving that a little bit of a backhanded upgrade. Hassett kept up to $5 million Coinbase stake as Trump reshaped the crypto policy. That's, you know, what's that say about incentives? What else is going on here? We've got Kramer's least favorite tech stock gets a new analyst endorsement. Our take. So Broadcom over there. Biggest debt relief companies, China, Philippines, tensions simmer after Beijing rebukes Manila over Seoul Clash. There you go. Seoul. All right. Those are the headlines this morning. I feel like we did a decent job of ripping through them, but we all know kind of what's on tap for today. It's got to be the CPI report as everyone's top focus here. We'll be looking out for, as we could see over here, I mean, the numbers don't even look that great. The year over year is supposed to come in unchanged at a 3.4%. The month over month is supposed to accelerate to a 0.4. The core year over year is supposed to decline slightly. I don't really know if I believe that based on the services PMI report and the core month over month is supposed to come in unchanged. I mean, that's not really a situation. That's not really a picture where Mr. Kevin Warsh can look at that and say, oh yeah, you know, it's fine. Yeah. Just let things be, let sleeping dogs lie. Right. I don't know if you could do that. If you, even if you just hit expectations here, you got to beat expectations, tie a bow on top and deliver it on a silver platter. If you're going to say, yeah, we'll pause, we'll pause in the next meeting. Right. So that's my take. Maybe it's a, uh, too much of a tinfoil hat fundamental take, but we'll do what we do best as we transition charts. Um, obviously I think the, I don't hear it cause the noises don't play through on my side, but I think there's a little like jingle or it's not really a jingle. It's like a beat as we transition over to the screens. Um, when we get there, when we land on the ES four hour chart, I'm not going to say anything immediately. Let's just take, I don't know, 60 seconds to think about, you know, let's, let's just take as long as it takes a little remembrance day. We're doing fine on time. The report doesn't come out until eight 30. We've got 12 minutes to go. So don't, the audio is not broken. We're going to go land on the other charts. Take a moment here to just, uh, remember what day it is. Remember the anniversary. Remember those who, uh, lost their lives in, uh, in that horrible, horrible, horrible tragedy. Okay. Here we go.
[00:22:03] Speaker ?: Here we go. Here we go.
[00:23:03] Speaker 5: All right. That's about 60 seconds there. You could take longer if you'd like, if you knew some people, if you have friends, family, if you're a service member yourself, um, just, uh, uh, a day to think back, you know, a day that, um, I wasn't quite old enough, but to, to really, really, you know, like fully have that memory, but, um, I've got the memory, you know, maybe not as strong or as vivid as some others, uh, but what a moment in time as unfortunate as it was to pull the country together and, uh, kind of offer some unification under terrible circumstances. So, um, um, with that, hopefully you've had your moment. If you need more moments, you know, do your thing, of course, but, uh, we are on the ES futures for our timescale chart and we move on over into the analysis here. Um, what do we see? We don't want to get too deep into it ahead of the CPI report. We don't want to overanalyze this before it potentially gets blown out, uh, be it up or down on any potential gap. Although we are gapping up overnight, right? So, you know, what an interesting market. You don't want to get short in the hole ever. That's kind of been the problem with the way these moves have been unfolding. The big downdraft was overnight as we know, and here we are with a little bit of lift. And of course, when is that lift happening? It's not like we open unchanged and then we can just kind of brigade bolt through a prior day high. Nope. Uh, it happens overnight. It happens overnight and we find ourselves higher. So what is the official four hour trend? It is of course in the downward direction. Highs, lower highs happening here. Lows, lower lows, lower lows, and lower lows. So, you know, this is, uh, this is interesting in terms of it being a downtrend. Even if we gap up, are we going to be bearish in the sense that we're looking for a lower high question mark, right? Is that kind of what's going to go on over here? I mean, there's some possibility that that could be on the table, right? Some kind of a lower high inside the midpoint of what we were considering just sort of like a choppy range from back over here. So that's one potential way to look at it. The other way to look at it is if we gap down, right? Is this just a bear flag that builds out on the lows? And if it is, is there enough weakness out there? Is the market so disappointed in CPI that we can actively have a sequence kick off to the downside? Because I mean, for what it's worth, every single time we've approached lows, the market's like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, don't, don't do it, right? You approach lows on a gap down, mind you, right? This big red bar here is an overnight bar. Gap down, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, don't do it, don't do it. A little bit of a gap higher and we pushed, right? So the time to short the markets, of course, at least in this current configuration is on a lower high. It's very, it's been, it's been, I don't want to say impossible and congrats if you've nailed any of these lows or whatever. You know, it's been almost impossible to short this thing underneath a prior support and actively find continuation in the downward direction, right? If you shorted this underneath previous support, good luck finding continuation. It immediately blew back in your face, right? Even when we were looking for the lower high in here, you know, wherever it was, Thursday in here, looking for the lower high underneath this zone right there. Nope, right? Higher. So shorting in the hole has clearly not been a winning strategy. Buying the trend change has not been a winning strategy. It has been a market where you basically have to just trust that you can fade some sort of an extreme. That's it. That's the only thing that's kind of worked here on these ES futures, at least from a, you know, higher timeframe perspective. So with that understanding, again, we'll let CPI be CPI. We have about six minutes to go until the report is ultimately released, but we're coming up off the low via a gap up after a protracted move to the downside and kind of opening back inside, back, back inside the range, really for what it's worth. If this is the range, we're just opening back inside of it. You got highs, you know, yeah, you have a slightly higher high here. Let's call it an equal high, equal high, you know, lows. This is slightly lower low. You have equal low over here. This is a balanced range. If we're just going to poke up into the balance range, the question becomes, is this another look below and fail? Is this a look below and fail? Are we going to rotate to the opposing end of the balance? Are we going to get some sort of traction from there? I don't know the answer to those questions, but that is, of course, what we're watching for on CPI, right? So with that, let's take a little bit of a closer look, get a bit more granular with the hourly chart here. On the hourly timescale, what do we ultimately see? I mean, we've got some unfilled gaps, right? These yellow bars, just for anyone who's not tracking the way I sort of color code my system, yellow represents an unfilled gap. We have overhead unfilled gaps here. We have overhead unfilled gaps here. Obviously, we're gapping through the gap headed into this morning session. And that's, of course, interesting. But as it relates to gaps closing, they have to close in the regular hour session. What this almost sets us up for in an interesting way would just be, you know, if the market wants to come in here and hold on to Wednesday's low, we just have an island reversal down here. And that's technically a little bit more bullish than bearish. Is this, again, I don't know what happens in the next five minutes here as we get the CPI report, but is this an island reversal with the inverted head and shoulders for a higher low here and the countertrend continues up to, oh, I don't know, the daily 20 SMA or something of that nature? Is that possible becomes the question. And I think the answer is, yeah, sure. It's not unreasonable that the market may try to do something along those lines. One thing I do want to get a little bit more clarity on, and this is my own fault, but let's just turn off those extended hours. We're going to start contract rolls over the next little bit as well here, by the way, as we come into the third Friday of September. Where are we as it relates to, like, how important or not important have these levels been? I think it's just about the gaps. I honestly think we could get rid of this. We could probably get rid of this. These levels are fine. They're a little bit, like, a little bit of minutia in there. Honestly, this gap is just the spot. That's fine. The one hour range high label can probably go away. Let's just remove that. Sometimes I like having all these references. Like, when we're chopping around in the range here, I like having that reference. Now that it's come and gone, a little less concerned about that, right? The original flag lows are great up there. That works for me. It's doing a little bit of chart cleanup. I mean, these things are so minor. These levels are so minor now that I'm almost inclined to say, like, we've got to minimize the distance this thing takes up. Instead of five points, it should be, like, two points, maybe. Something like that, right? Just really, really faint line on the screen. That way, we're not overanalyzing it as a zone. Let's do this and say this is, like, I don't know, 78, and this is 80. Good. A little bit more minimized. This gap is a key spot, and I would say this left side peak is a key spot, right? This is from back over here. Left side peak. A little gap zone. So, that'll stay thick as a major line. Just doing a little bit of chart work, a little bit of doctoring up, if you will, ahead of the CPI report. And this low, I mean, yeah, it's kind of just, it just kind of is the range low right around in here. Kind of just blast that across the screen. I know the gap overlaps with it. That's fine. We'll just make that a five-point zone, 60 to 65. And let's just push that out to the end of the month. And there we have it. That's a slightly cleaner chart. That at least gives me a little bit more clarity in terms of what the major spots are. This cyan box probably goes away at this point, right? The single prints no longer really, they're not doing anything for us there. This is going to drive me nuts if I leave that flag low with a penny. There's no such thing as a penny in the futures. There we go. 77.25s. And that's looking a little bit better. Okay. This works for me. These upside levels probably get a little adjustment higher. No, I think it stays as is 77.50s. Okay. Good enough for me in terms of some quick chart work there to clean this thing up just a touch, just a little bit. Let's bring this thing out to the end of the month because why not? Let's go 09.31. I know that doesn't exist, but there it is. It's at the end of the month. All right. So the hourly chart trend, we have about a minute and a half to go until CPI is released. We have ourselves a grinding downtrend here. We have highs. We have lower highs. Let's go back to like trend analysis 101 highs, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs. I mean, I know we're making a new overnight high as I speak, but could we still set a lower high? I think the answer is yes. Lows, lower lows, lower lows, lower lows. Yesterday literally produced the lowest low in the trend count, which is bearish. It means we have room for that lower high. Without delaying any further, let's take this thing down to a five minute chart. Let's take a peek at how this market responds to the CPI inflation report and whether or not ultimately we get a sustained gap up and we just push and we want to make sure we understand whether or not this push is happening because of a good report, a bad report. Remember, let's just say core year over year is expected at a 2.4, oops, 2.4 and then non-core year over year is expected at a 3.4. Okay. Those are the expectations in terms of annualized inflation. If we want to see the month over month, core month over month, I believe was slated to come in at a 0.2 and non-core month over month. Here we go. Numbers out now. Big flash to the downside. Thinkorswim is locked up. Typically that happens when you have such an aggressive move. We're to the downside here. We were expecting a 0.4 on the non-core month over month. It's for anybody who is tracking that. There we have it. There we have it. So those are the expected numbers. Those are the estimates on the screen here. Let's just throw those right there. Fine. And let's see what we get. Breaking snooze JC, our senior news correspondents got us covered with the JC AI. It's the Magnum tech. We've got ourselves CPI month over month, 0.4 forecast, 0.4. We have ourselves core CPI month over month, 0.3 forecast, 0.2. Ouch. We've got ourselves US CPI year over year, 3.4 forecast, 3.4. And the core CPI year over year, 2.4 forecast, 2.4. Boy, oh boy, those chefs out back, they've done it once again. We've got ourselves a perfectly cooked up report. Shout out to, I don't know if Djibouti's hanging out in the chat or if he's still on vacation, but the BLS apron is out in full force and they're getting the job done cooking those numbers up perfectly. Wow. The only thing we missed on was the core month over month, 0.3 instead of 0.2. Incredible. That's incredible. Oh boy, oh boy. Let's take a sip of this coffee. Let's take a sip of the coffee and we will continue along. All right, let's give this another 15 seconds to simmer out and we'll ultimately see how this report wants to digest. Remember, the most important thing to pay attention to here is not necessarily whether or not, you know, it's up versus down. It's, is it up versus down against a good or bad number? Is the market's response good or bad, right? Is the market responding favorably to a bad report or is the market responding, meh, not favorably to a good report? Like what's going on here in terms of expectations, right? So we're still letting this simmer. It's been about 120 seconds. The algos have been able to do their thing. I find it very interesting that the market is right here, right up against a previous day high, right? That's exactly where we caught buyers and found some support. We're not quite unchanged from the move, but we are bouncing a little bit in this lower wick. The sellers are certainly not running away with this thing in the downward direction. We'll see if this ends up sticking as the end-all be-all low of the move into the day. But I think one thing you definitely want to do is probably keep track of the CPI low. The CPI low will either act as a, you know, place you can long against if it is going to hold, or it's a place that if we go through it, you just want to understand that as a more bearish perspective, right? So that's interesting there. All right, we've got about 8.33 on the clock. I think we do a quick little tour. Let's do a quick little tour through what was actually released on the CPI report. How about that? I think if I do this, boom, there it is. We've got the browser up, and I believe if we just open up, let's just get into the latest release. Cover your eyes. The scrolling sometimes hurts through all these text blocks, and then we come down here, and we want to go to the detailed expenditure category, and let's take a look. Just as a reminder, oh, I think we did this last time. I am going to do it again. I'm going to do it again. Let me just go with a quick inspection, and let's just take a peek at what this entire header is. Okay, I want to make this sticky. How do I do this? I just want to take a screenshot of this. Okay, hang on one second. We're going to make this a sticky header. All right. Because it does frustrate me every single time we have to scroll, and then we lose the column labels at the top. It's very, very, very frustrating. Okay. Let's take this. Let's take this, and let's just do that. Oh, yeah. Now we're talking. You want a use case for AI? We did it last time. We're doing it again. There's your use case for AI in real time. How about that? Sticky header. All right. Let's go through. Let's take a peek at what's going on here in terms of the actual report. What are we looking at? So just FYI, the column that we care most about is this over here. It's on the right-hand side. That's our month over month. We're looking for anything out of the ordinary, you know, 1%, 2% plus. Flour and prepared flour mixes, expensive. Breakfast cereal, though, getting pretty cheap. Let's look for some big outliers. Here we go. Fresh cakes and cupcakes getting cheap after a pretty hot last month, down about 3.5%. What else is going on here? Steaks and stuff, some up, some down. Ham, a little bit cheaper. Pork roasts, a little bit more expensive. What else? Eggs. They're reinflating the eggs. Oh, goodness. What else is happening in here? Any big outliers? Apples, fresh fruits, fine. Lettuce. Lettuce coming down big time after that scare. What else is happening in here? Big outlier numbers. Can I also just do this thing? I just want to take that and just say visibility hidden. Thank goodness. Get rid of that little red block. That one, at least, is an easy, easy, easy CSS cheat code there. What else is going on? Where were we going? Fats and oils. There you go. What else is happening? Olives, pickles, and relish. Nice. Fuel oil. Obviously, energy is going to be super sensitive to what's going on with the Iran situation. So energy inflating on the month over month up 2.1%. What about the year over year? That's, where's year over year? Oh, here. That's this one. Up 16% year over year on the energy side of things. So pretty hot still, especially with the crude. And it's going to come in hot next month. I can't imagine it wouldn't come in hot with crude breaking back the new highs. That's pretty incredible. What else is going on here? Fuel oil, we already covered at the 10% mark. Motor fuel, gasoline, up 3.9%. If you're looking at the annualized number, gasoline's up 27.4%. Scrolling on down, what else? All items, less food and energy. So these are some interesting ones, of course. Laundry equipment, up 2.8%. How are we doing with those tariffs? Are our washing machines and dryers getting more expensive? Men's suits, it's expensive to look nice these days. It looks like shirts and sweaters. How about the ladies? Women's dresses. Expensive to look nice, 4.9%. What else is going on in here? That's an outlier number. Vehicle stuff. That's interesting. Vehicle parts and equipment. And then oil, coolant, and fluids up. Okay, opposing. What else? Down 6.1% video equipment. Interesting. What else is going on in here? Any big outlier numbers? This stuff's all really tame through here. Shelter, this is what we care about. This is a big, big chunk of the report. This is, I don't want to say it's baffling, but this is not what we wanted to see. That's not it. That is not the move you're looking for on shelter inflation. Seeing a reignition to 0.3? No, not it at all. Rent of primary residence is slightly lower. Interesting. Lodging away from home is re-accelerated after de-accelerating. Lodging while at school, fine, whatever. Away from motels is back up. This is not, this is wild to me, the way that they produced that shelter number. Interesting. Nonetheless, it's moving in the wrong direction. Shelter moving in the wrong direction is not what we want to see. That acts as an anchor for inflation to remain elevated, I should say. You want those numbers at 0.1s, 0.2s. A 0.3 there is not what you want to see at all. Shelter is such an important part of this CPI report. You can literally see it is 35%, 35% weighting of the actual print itself. So interesting. That doesn't really look all that compelling. It doesn't really look all that compelling in terms of an improved look. All right. What else is going on? Any other like fun stuff that we can just take a look at quickly before going back to the charts? It's 839. We don't want to spend too, too much time over here. Public transport, a little bit inflationary there. 2.3% on the year over year, or sorry, on the month over month. Year over year is 15%. Ouch. Commuting costs up. What else is going on over here? Delivery services make sense with fuel costs. Not surprising. Tax accounting slightly lower. All right. That's it. That's the big sort of report this morning. That is the CPI. That's what we're working with. Once again, I would tend to think that the shelter number, this is usually the most important number that I'm looking at. That's a step in the wrong direction on shelter. So not good enough. Not good enough. I would have expected a slightly better report there. If we go to the simplified table, all items up 0.4. Let's go to all items less food and energy, 0.3. There it is. Think about the annualized number there. I know they're trying to look through the energy shock and what's going on with crude, but think about the annualized number of 0.3, even less food and energy. That's not going to get you to a 2% inflation number. It's just the math doesn't work. The math doesn't work that way. So anyway, that's what we got through the CPI inflation report this morning. Those are the numbers. And now we jump back on over to the screens. Let's see where we left off with the sort of market, the ES, and whether or not we're thinking long, short, bull bear, what's going on over here. So I'd say it's a mostly inline report. It didn't come in hot or as hot as perhaps it could have been perceived to. And as of right now, the market's response is, I would say, mostly centered upon, I believe, what is going on with crude oil. All right. If I just jump back over here to the CL, I know the screen's frozen. It'll come back up in a second. Just bear with me for, I don't know, 60 seconds. Come on now. Come on, streaming software. You can do it. There it is. There's crude oil. Crude oil is the major response function, or the market is responding primarily to lower crude oil here, which despite a inline slash slightly hot CPI report is still, you know, helping the market move higher because expectations are for lower rates as crude maybe comes into a top, maybe, right? Let's take a sip of this coffee and then we'll jump on into the ES again. And then we will take it on in from there. Okay. ES futures on the, let's remove that 15 minute chart. Let's get a little bit more granular. The market seems to be responding okay to an inline report. Once again, my belief is that crude oil is more of the driver this morning. If we just go take a look over at the notes, ZN, quick flash lower and now being rebid back up. And this primarily happening through here is a response function to, I believe, once again, CL, just talking about how all things are interconnected. If bonds go up, rates go down, making a little bit of pressure relief for the equity market, right? So a little flash of volatility when rates went down on the initial release of CPI. But look at where we're at. We're back to unchanged. The question over here becomes, let's go to like a really longer timeframe chart. Is this all we get? Yeah, there it is. That's max available. We're not quite at the lowest lows the ZN has ever been. And obviously, you know, your 10-year yield goes back further than that as well. I don't think, do we get it here? I don't know how much price history they have on this thing. Yeah. I mean, so like rates have been higher in the past. And, you know, we'll see if rates ultimately want to come in a little bit. Let's go to a five-minute extended hours on for equities. Let's just do this, this, this. There we have it. So rates spiked and then come back in on that CPI report. And as long as oil continues to move in the downward direction, at least through today's session intraday, if CL continues to move lower, I would generally think that there's a chance your ES maybe doesn't have to rally, but it likely isn't like a huge puke if oil can remain somewhat weak on this morning session. Right. That's the way I'm sort of seeing the interconnected parts of the market as of right now. Anyhow, let's get into the, this is way too zoomed in on a five-minute. Let's go to the 15. There we go. And let's take a peek at where we're at and what's going on. So the three and a half questions, never four, will always light the way, regardless of CPI, not CPI. Any given day, we're always asking the three and a half questions to center ourselves on what's ultimately happening here. Number one, let's put them over here in a box today. Number one, where are we opening relative to the previous day's range? Obviously, this is a gap up, right? Obviously, this is a gap up and we put an up arrow and we say GR gap rules are in force. GR, fantastic. Talk gap rules in just a second. Number 1.5. Where are we opening as it relates to the value area? Of course, naturally on a gap up, we'll be above the value area, but we just want to know whether or not there's bullish buffer. Obviously, we're opening above the value area. So there is indeed bullish buffer, BU, BU, bullish buffer. We move along to question number two. What do we see as it relates? That's a pretty sideways. It's like an italic looking too. Let's try that one more time. Point number two. There it is. Much better. Where are we opening relative to the overnight range? Here's your overnight high. Here's your overnight low. Certainly pressed into the overnight highs, but well, let me reframe that. We're in the upper third of the overnight range, but we're not necessarily pressed into right now, at least the overnight high. So we will put an up arrow here for question number two. The risk reward isn't terrible for some potential of a fade. So that is on the radar as a possibility. Let's finish it up with question number three. What do we have as it relates to the overnight inventory? Net long, net short. To do that, extrapolate the settlement. Settlements here. How much time above? How much time below? A little bit of time below. Literally just one little blip. But all of the additional time was spent above the settlement. And therefore, I would argue, you know, sure, shake to reset the brass abacus. There it is. But boy, oh boy, this is just 100% net long. There's no real arguing with that, I don't think. So 100%, and that of course is on the NL side, net long, which means if there is going to be some inventory correction, it should be in the downward direction. We'll watch to see how deep the pullback actually happens, right? How deep is the pullback? Do we close the gap to the previous day's high? Do we support off the daily 50 SMA? Do we support over the Wednesday low? Do we get an island reversal down here? Do we close the gap all the way? All of those things will be insightful as to telling us how ultimately bullish or bearish we should be. Okay? And that is that. Let's go ahead and take a sip. Trade alert in the chat says, US core inflation upside was driven by super core services with lodging a notable outlier in core goods, softer than expected, suggesting that underlying services inflation remains a key Fed challenge. I would agree. I would 100% agree. You know, my main thesis coming into this report was that, hey, services PMI prices paid generally tends to lead the CPI report and services prices paid for those who have been following along the ISM report from what was it last week or the week prior? Prices paid are now increasing for the 111th month and at a faster than previously recorded rate, right? It's not like we're just printing on the ISM prices. It's not like we're printing 50 and then 52, right? And then it comes back in and it's a 51 because all of these are still increasing. Remember over 50 is increasing. Under 50 is decreasing, but it's not like we're 50, 52, 51, 50. No, it's, it's, we're 52, 63, 73, 77 in the last report prices paid on, on services PMI. So, you know, again, I don't want to put too, too much of a fundamental hat on. It's never seemed to pay me right to play that role. It never seems to pay me well, uh, or, or do anything to move the needle for the account. So I'm going to focus on price action and what I do best. Uh, but it is nice to at least have some sort of a mental framework as to what maybe you're expecting or thinking about in the background, right? How, why, why is this all unfolding the way it is, right? Okay. I've got some mental framework for it, but I'm not going to actively let it impact my trading decision. I just kind of understand what's going on. It's, it's an awareness thing, right? Anyway, those are the three and a half questions, never four headed into today's Friday, September 11th session. And, uh, as we know, right, Friday rules are in play because Friday does indeed rule. Let's go and take a sip of this coffee and then we will continue along here. All right. Three, two, one. Poof. All right. So a pretty inline report with a little bit of heat on the services side, I would say shelter. Um, and you can see over here, markets are gobbling this up and saying, we don't care. Uh, we're still higher. So there's two potential ways to frame this. I would say the first way to frame it is that on the four hour chart, and maybe perhaps this is actually easier to see on the spy. And we'll just jump in here to a daily chart real quick. Let's just go here on a daily chart. You look at this and you're like, okay, you know, not that we're candle counters, but one, two, three, four days down with unfilled gaps in there, you know, is it just a countertrend move? Question mark. Is this just a countertrend move? Or is the market looking through the hot ish, I wouldn't say it's terribly hot, but the hot ish, hot ish, uh, CPI report and saying, ah, we'll figure it out. We'll figure it out. Right. No problem. AI is deflationary in the long run. And, uh, we're, we're going to, you know, we'll get through this just fine and we'll be okay. All right. That's the alternative. Um, the exact way to figure that out is probably continuing to keep an eye on our notes headed into today's session and probably on the ES, making sure we either close strong or at least not weak. When I say not weak, uh, you probably don't want to see too, too much of a close back down inside previous day's range. So price action off of the open should likely tell us a ton about how we are going to attack and approach the market. So let's get into the three and a half. Well, we already talked about the three and a half questions. Let's talk about the simplified pathing as to what we're expecting here for the market to do. So when the gap rules are in play, the gap rules are in play. It doesn't change because it's a CPI report. If the market gives us the gap rules, we know that we are looking for, you know, we just covered them like three days in a row. So we'll do it a little bit more quickly, uh, than normal, but actually remember just like five minutes ago, I said, Oh, I'm going to remove that level because I don't really, I don't really think I need it anymore. You know, I think I might. Okay. This, this here just reminding myself is the bottom end of the hourly balance back over here. Sorry for the like, you know, back and forth, back and forth moment, but just reminding myself that this thick gray bar, not these minor gray bars are, or this is the bottom end of that hourly balance. Okay, good. Let's go back to the 15 and here we go. All right. So what does this sort of suggest? The first thing I would be thinking about is the gap rules framework telling us if we reject this spot and the market continues to push here, I mean, it's pretty bullish reaction to the, uh, to the inline report, you know, so any sort of like rally rejection of this spot is a rejection of overhead supply. When, and if the market pulls back, the gap rules tell us look above and fail the overnight high short on a lower high underneath the opening print and an ideal world. You're closing the gap all the way. How big is this gap? We need to ask the question. How large is the gap? I mean, this is from, let's call it 76, 20 up to 76, 60. Nice, easy math for today's session. A 40 point gap up is pretty substantial, right? We used to say, okay, a gap of 10 points is substantial. Okay. Scratch that. We're in a new trading environment. 20 points is more substantial. Okay. Scratch that. When the sickness came around, it was like 30 points. It's substantial. Okay. Scratch that 40 points as of right now is kind of that sweet spot, right? Gaps that are kind of less than 40 points. You generally expect them to fade and fill, uh, gaps that are more than 40 points. You're like, okay, let me pay attention to the half gap level. Let me pay attention to a partial gap fill reversal. Maybe we don't close this thing all the way. So the gap is sizable. And therefore, once again, we could look for an overnight high failure short under the opening print, a little bit of a check back. Maybe it's just this pre-market inflection point here. Maybe that's all we get on the downside. So a partial gap fill reversal is on the table. If I just grab the crayon again, we'll say something. Look at this thing. Continue to push here. Uh, something that looks like that is totally doable. That is in the cards. If the market says, nope, I'm going for a glory. I'm going all the way to here, right? Test this spot. And then you're potentially doing something that looks like that. That works as well. You close the gap all the way to the previous day's high. I mean, come on now. What are we doing here? This is a pretty impressive, you know, look at this thing go. Look at this thing go in the pre. Just ripping. Ripping. Um, those are sort of the outlooks, right? Those are the outlooks. We got to redraw it just because the overnight high is, uh, continues to move. Got to redraw it. Gaps do not have to fill, Callum. Gaps do not have to fill. They help. Look at this thing rip. Look at this thing rip. Maybe I'll just continue to let it simmer for a second. Um, that's one thing to not confuse on the gap rules, right? Gaps do not have to fill. It's just that the framework calls for an inventory correction to punish anybody who's long late to the party here, right? The gap does not have to fill. We don't have to get here, right? This gap did not fill. This gap did not fill. They filled partially, but they didn't fill all the way. Um, gaps do not have to fill. The gap rules framework just gives us a way to get involved if the inventory is going to correct, right? I think Tyler brings up a great point in the chat there. They don't have to fill, but mean reversion is a common theme in markets, right? That's it. That's exactly it. So one more time. Um, I don't think, I don't, I actually don't think so. I think if the, so I'm just reading the chat here. Alan Gomez says, uh, incredible to see the market rip because they're going to have to hike rates now. Uh, you know, X, Y, Z. Um, I actually don't think so. I think if Kevin Worsh just comes out and says, yeah, the inflation number was in line with expectations. It didn't really move lower. Like we thought it would. We have to hike rates. If he just says it, all he has to do is just say that and do that. And the market says, Oh, geez, thank God. Thank God. You've got some credibility and you're not just going to run this thing into the ground because boy, oh boy, God forbid you hike rates. Right? Like, like that's what the market just wants that the market just wants a little bit of like, Hey, we're not asleep at the wheel. Just doing this because, uh, my boss over there in the next room over is saying, you better not do it, Kevin. You better not do it. Right? So I think, I think if Kevin just comes out and says it, just say it, everybody's thinking it. You just have to say it. You just have to do it. Give the market some belief that you're not just going to, like I said, run it into the ground and just like, Oh, we're going to let free markets take care of everything in the 10 year rates doing our job for us. But the fed fund futures can stay right where they're at. Right? Because we don't, we don't see a problem yet. Just acknowledge, just acknowledge it. Right? Acknowledge it, Mr. K-Dub. Um, anyway, we'll see what happens next Wednesday, but for now, getting back down to business on this, excuse me, um, let's get back into this. Look at this thing go. It's going to make another new overnight high and make me move this lineup again. I guess so. I guess so. I got to, I got to bump the lineup again. There it is. How much higher are we going here? How much higher are we going? Let's just let this thing, I mean, am I going to give it another, I was going to give it another 60 seconds to, uh, 855. It's just a nice round number, but that is, uh, not unfortunately going to work. Not unfortunately going to work. All right. Let's, uh, let's take a sip. Just rip, rip, rip, rip, rip, rip, rip. Another little pop there on the overnight high. Sure. Any more pops through the overnight highs? Am I going to have to keep bumping that lineup? What are we doing here? All right. Gap rules framework, pathing ideas. We got to do something. Otherwise, it's going to be 930 and we're going to be like, is it still going higher? Um, as it relates to the framework for pathing and the gap rules, uh, you know, as I just noted, and I'll just start by sketching the entire thing in actually, this is the one hour overhead range, one hour OHS overhead supply, right? There's different sub levels inside the overhead supply. This is 7680, 7680. This is oops, eight zero would help that. Uh, this is 7700. All right. We've talked about 7705 in the past quite a bit. Um, as a matter of fact, let me put an 05. That's a bit more familiar. Jeez, I can't draw seven to save my life this morning. At least two back to back. Good. Uh, this bottom end of the range in here is 7665, as we know. This thing's going to make a new overnight high again. Incredible. Uh, this major low, um, in here is going to be at, uh, that's the 7630s.
[01:01:05] Speaker 1: Whew.
[01:01:06] Speaker 5: A new overnight high. Who would have guessed? All right. Simplified gap and pathing. It's probably not just a look above and fail of the overnight high. It is a failure back down underneath that 7660, 7665 spot. That unlocks a little bit of a pullback. Partial gap fill is then interesting. Something that looks like this back to retest that spot. I would say, I would say, because this is a pretty bullish response to CPI. If we go through this, right, this is the long and we are starting to work ourselves back up and into the overhead one hour supply. Right? Looks good there. If the market says, no, no, no, no. That is a rejection point back down to the equal low. Obviously, your target is the full gap close into the previous day's high. Right? Look at this thing. New overnight highs. Rip, rip, rip, rip, rip, rip, rip. Just screaming higher. You've never seen anything like it. You've never seen anything like it. Wow. Rippy. Rippy, rippy. I mean, I guess like, and this is the only thing that kind of keeps me sane in a moment like this. I don't know if you guys maybe feel the same. The only thing that keeps me sane in a moment like this, you know, and it cuts both ways, obviously. Yesterday didn't feel so good. But it's like, okay, long-term accounts rejoice. Right? You got some long-term exposure to the market. Okay. We're going to wake up and you're going to see a nice big fat green number over there. And you're going to be, okay, good, fine. You know, awesome. It's not like I'm not participating. But, you know, again, it cuts both ways. You lost it yesterday. You made it back today. Okay? So, keeps me sane. Keeps me from saying like, oh my goodness, you know, I'm a non-participant. And like, what am I going to do with this now? And it's too late. And the move's over. And yada, yada, yada, yada. Right? This is incredible. This gap is now huge. I mean, this is a massive gap now. We're talking about from 20s up to 75s. Let's call it a 50-plus point gap at this point. That is a huge, huge gap. So, this framework is interesting. Again, it needs to be a loss of 76.65 if this thing's going to fade. I honestly, I don't want to clear this up. But I almost have to. Look at this freaking thing squeeze, man. Wow. Wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow. More. More. More. When's the short coming in? When's the short coming in? Oh, my God. Oh, whew. Wow, look at this thing go. All right. I'm just letting the overnight high continue to creep higher. Seafood towers tonight. That's right, Ricky. Seafood towers tonight. Boy, oh, boy. Yeah, Skye, I'm thinking so. I'm thinking so. All right. I really don't want to do it, but I have to take off some of these white lines just because of the way that this thing continues to make new highs. I don't want to have to keep redrawing this thing. But, I mean, like, what else are you going to do? Right? What else are you going to do? There's maybe a little bit of a fade into here. I mean, now that we're high enough away from it. And we'll see if this sticks. I mean, it's 9.01. There's a lot of time still between now and 9.30. You know, like, is this now the look for this? And then Brigade bolted up and over the overnight high? Maybe. You know, just opening drive that's here. This is your pullback to that mid-gap. Maybe it's this pre-post little spot in here. That's interesting. And then maybe it's partial gap fill and you're higher. Right? This is where we then say, okay, if it reclaims this bottom end of the range. Let me draw those dots a little bit better. Let me draw that a little bit more concretely. Okay. We're here. If we go through, right? This is where it's bullish to the overnight high. If we reject, go back to the equal low. Right? There's your gap close. When we get here, I mean, it's probably this. Right? Gap fill reversal off the low.
[01:05:55] Speaker ?: Poof.
[01:05:56] Speaker 5: My goodness. What a rip, rip, rip. Just straight up. Straight up. I mean, geez, why not? A little guagged fee action for today's session. A little go with all gaps that don't fill immediately. So this is like some simplified pathing that comes to mind. I'll just take the liberty of dropping in a little bit of a level in here just to denote what that, denote, excuse me, what this is. 76.45. I'm just going to make that dim and gray and say like overnight ON reference. Let's show that on the right. That's fine. Okay. You get a little something there. And then it's the full gap close down towards these lows. Previous day high. Let's just get the cyan crayon back out because, I mean, my goodness. This is 76.20. And the top of the range, just to say it, is 77.25. 77.25. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. Let's go ahead and put a couple things on the screen in addition to this. Number one is just Friday rules. Right? Friday rules. If you're green on the week, keep it green, right? Don't go out there and say, oh, you know, it's funny money and yada, yada, yada, it's whatever. You know, if you're green on the week, keep it green. No need to, no need to go burn cash on a Friday just because you're bored or whatever. If you're red on the week, we of course don't want to see you keep it red. We want to see you go ahead and keep it respectful, responsible, res. We want to see you keep it respectful over here. Respectful, responsible, rigatoni. Don't do anything, you know, that's going to require a resuscitation, I suppose, that you'll regret. Keep it respectful on the week. What else do we even say about this? We probably have to talk about, because the gap has widened out to such a wide degree, you get the four different cohorts of buyers and sellers all going to be jockeying for price action and location off the open. What does that mean? You have new money buyers, NMBs, new money buyers who will be positive delta. You have old money sellers, right, shorts closing out, old money sellers will be positive delta. You have new money sellers who will be negative delta. And you have old money buyers who are closing out, taking profit. And that is also negative delta. So what does this add up to, right? This kind of adds up to neutrality. It wouldn't be unreasonable if the market doesn't do a whole lot of anything off the open. Wouldn't be unreasonable if the market says, oh, you thought we were going to close the gap? No, we're barcoding, we're sideways, the move happened overnight. Nice knowing you, it's Friday, you thought anything, you thought you'd get a piece of this in the regular hour session? You really thought you'd get a piece of this move in the regular trading hour session? You are sadly mistaken, my friend. And we might just be sideways because you have too much push pull between new money buyers, old money sellers, new money sellers, old money buyers, all saying like, I got to do this, got to do that. I mean, there's a lot of shock and awe this morning. Everybody who, you know, all the traders who roll into the desk at like 9.15 and are like, all right, what are we doing today? All those guys are going to wake up and say like, oh my God, like, geez, I got to buy this, I got to sell this, I got to do this, I got to do that. You know, I don't know if those guys are actually, you know, if they're ignorantly rolling into the desk at 9.15, but you get my point. There's enough shock and awe. We're opening disjointed far enough away from the closing print of the prior day session where, you know, this is, this is certainly well within the realm of people needing to do stuff off of the open. Okay. So that is that. That is that. All right. That's, that's pretty much it. That's like all there is to it on the, on the screens here. Let's go ahead and take a screenshot of this for reference and like, geez, you know, is this actually, is this actually going to be it for today's session? You know, okay, that is simmering. We will let that continue to simmer for just a moment. Yeah. I mean, it's a, it's a good point. Where, where'd the message go? It just kind of flew by. Where'd it go? It wasn't deleted, was it? Miami Beach Broker says, why limit oneself to market hours? Trade pre and post market. Yeah. I mean, pre and post is where all the big moves have been happening recently. So, you know, 100% agree that, you know, if you, if you're somehow up at 5am and willing to trade markets at 5am and all that stuff, then power to you, power to you. All right. It's the largest gap I've seen in my lifetime. Some of the gap downs through the sickness and honestly, the gap ups that then ripped it back in the upward direction. The volatility was so extreme. I don't, I mean, you know, it, it feels like it was just yesterday, but I, I understand it was now more than five years ago. Anybody who traded the sickness, right? I mean, we were limit up, limit down every other day, right? It was, it was a pretty wild time. You know, just when you think it's bearish, you're getting, you're getting a notification that morning that, hey, the markets are closed. But because it's a limit up, not a limit down, which is always pretty interesting. SSR Warrior says, Matt, stop trading during this pre-market. I haven't taken a single trade this pre-market. I did yesterday. I did not today. That is true. Miami Beach broker, nothing stopping anybody from getting up early and placing some trades. You could place those trades whenever you want. It's just a matter of, do you value your sleep? I guess, you know, we might have to reconsider our careers, but yeah, I mean, usually I'm just kind of starting the day at that time. You know. Please start what, Jim? What should we be starting, Jim? Please start what? Please start the analysis. The analysis is just simply that this market is way off the lows. Good luck trying to buy that thing long on the highs. Don't be expecting anything too, too crazy. I would think managing expectations coming into a 50-point gap up is what we got going on for today's session. All right. All right. How do you trade pre-market? Just make your orders limit orders. Make your orders limit orders. Put good till canceled. Put, of course, time in force, extended hours, sessions. Very simple stuff. Ask chat GPT. Ask the broker. Call up and go from there. Evolt Financial. If you didn't notice, your first message screaming at us all was deleted, and that was for a reason. Please don't scream up here in the office. All right. We've let this simmer for long enough. We've talked about it for long enough, and let's continue along. Three, two, one.
[01:14:25] Speaker ?: Poof.
[01:14:26] Speaker 5: Let's jump on into the Spider's Cash ETF. Let's just kind of see what's going on over here. This is still the ZN. This is the notes. Notice how notes are kind of pushing higher. That, of course, is bullish for markets. Let's jump on into the Spider's Cash, though. Let's try to get the job done as best as possible. We're gapping up to where? We're gapping up to here. I mean, this is a good spot for the market to chill out. Why do I say that? Well, you're gapping into and slightly above a declining 8 EMA, a declining 20 SMA. You know, for what it's worth, if this is a balance range, you're gapping into, like, the mid-ish point. You know, if you rally a little bit further. Let's just say the overnight high gets taken out, and you still reject 767.85. You know, I don't... Is that just a lower high, right? Is that just a lower high? Question mark, right? Are we just going to come in here and do this? And if so, do we say highs? Lower highs? Lower highs? And lower highs? Question mark? You know, like, what are we doing here? What are we doing here? This market is... It's interesting. It is interesting. You know, again, four big down days. Not shocked to see a snap, but the magnitude of the snap is a little much. And we'll just see if that turns into a lower high against the context of a market that's breaking down. Right? We tried to give the market the benefit of the doubt so many times through here. Lows, equal lows, equal lows. I mean, this was kind of a lower low. I was calling it a lower low. There's no arguing. This is just a lower low. It's a lower low. But it is off the daily 50 SMA, which gives me a little bit of, you know, reprieve. And the other thing is, like, you go out to a weekly chart. Right? This competition of the time frame stuff is not too fun. Right? If you're going to be opening up, up here, what does that do to the weekly bar? Right? If this is the open and we stick it, let's say we open and we stick it, something like that today, the weekly bar just turns into a hammer again. Right? Something that looks like that. Off of what? Right? Anybody? Come on. Right? Is that really that bearish on the weekly time frame? Or are we still just flagging out? Are we flagging out, getting ready for that? Question mark. So, interesting, gappy market. And all we do, right? It might sound like, you know, super frustrating and this, that, the other. Like, all we're going to do is wake up and say, when the bell goes ding, ding, ding, can we follow the gap rules in a way such that we can get involved? Right? Is there going to be a way to get involved via the gap rules? That's it. Just reset this. So, speaking of, let's get into the levels here. We are opening right around in this neighborhood at a declining 8 EMA. We've got an overhead, overnight high, very close to the 5 SMA declining in yellow there. If the market rallies and rejects and then takes out, I would just be using the level. Excuse me. I would just be using the level right here, 7.64.65. Then, okay. Right? If we rally and reject and break that, that's where your pullback starts. When we get to the range low. If we do something that looks like this, great. The market's saved. Is that a higher low? Sure. Is this a weekly higher low down here? Sure. Right? That gets a check. This then turns into the higher low there. We're here. And then we're saved. And the market's higher. Great. Alternatively, the market just doesn't even produce this. And instead, it just says, okay, we open up here. Right? We kind of hold. We do this. Then early next week, we're just higher. That's an alternative as well. What about another alternative? You break down here. You bounce off this low. But then you show a lower high. And you go back down to the equal low. And you're through that. And then we're short. Right? And that's it. And if you really believe that that's the thesis, then you probably have to short it here. You probably have to be short this morning. And you probably have to be saying to yourself, this is a rejection. Right? This is a lower high in the count underneath the midpoint, underneath the 8, underneath the 5, underneath the 20, underneath all the reference points. And then we're short from there. That's it. Depends on how much you believe in this market. What is your belief level? Right? Tom Lee, bullish for September. Tom Lee's always bullish. So that's the spider's cash. 9.15 on the clock. Quick look at the NQ. And we'll see what's going on over here. Let's go to the 4-hour chart. And let's just kind of see what we're working with. So there's your balance range on the NQ 4-hour. I don't really think that there is a ton to say about an exaggerated move out of range. We are still in the range. So your top side is unchanged at the 29, 675, 685 level. You could call it 29.7 if you really want. And the bottom end down here is that 29,000 flat. All right? 29,000 flat. 29, 675, 700 right there. You can see we're opening still inside of this range. So has the NQ really done anything to change the trend? No. We have bounced off of the range low. We are now inside the range. And if we consolidate in the upper 50%, that's great. We know this overhead gap is a potential target at some point. If we break down and we have a lower high within the range and we are accepting inside of the previous day's range. I know I've said range now about 10 too many times. And then from there, you know, maybe a lower high pressure off the bottom after a descending triangle, a.k.a. just a series of lower highs knocking on the door again into the low. Maybe that opens it for lower. Maybe. Maybe. All right? So that is that. Let's get on into the hourly chart. Let's see what we got going on from this perspective. There is no trend on the hourly chart. So I'm fairly neutral on this good old NQ. You've got highs. You've got equal highs. You've got equal highs. You've got lows. You've got equal lows. You've got equal lows. We just talked about this in the four hour. We're in the balance range. Fine. Let's go to the 15 minute chart. See what else we can glean from this perspective. Obviously, we need to rip a new overnight high in here and just pull this thing way the heck up there. And the gap rules light the way. So, you know, I might sound like a broken record, but it's the same deal. It's the same exact deal. If you rally and reject the overnight high and you come down underneath the opening print or whatever, your first thought is probably looking at Wednesday's low. If we support off of Wednesday's low and do something that looks like that, let me slide this over actually just a touch. There we go. That's fine. Let's try that again. Here, here, here, here, here, here. That's good. You know, buyers obviously want to see this to the top end of the range. In which case, a fade off of that makes sense. This, if it rallies, whoa, that's way too sloppy. This, if it wants to rally up there, is fine. I would expect the fizzling off from there. If this thing comes crashing down like this, like a house of cards, great. You're just kind of in the middle of the range. I would say from here, you have a decision point back above the gap or back below the gap, right? That's kind of the decision factor, if you will, on that. Should the market kind of find acceptance back inside the previous day's range, let's just say we're here. Like, this is just undeniably bearish, right? This is that lower high situation we just talked about on the hourly chart. One hour, lower high. And then we could say back to range lows. All right. Something just along those lines right there. That's kind of the simplified look for the NQ futures. Remember, in the midpoint of the balance range, the top end of the range is this. Let's just call it 29.7 for the sake of round numbers. 29.700 is the top of range, and the bottom of range is 29,000 flat. Oops. I guess that'll have a descending... Nah, it looks ugly. My goodness. Come on now. There we go. That's close enough. Close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades. Let's go ahead and hit this thing up here with the 360 spot as the top of the gap. And the previous day's high, which is at 275. And that is pretty much it. That is the NQ in a nutshell. Let's go ahead and throw this over here. And let's just say NQ. And then we'll take it in stride from there. All right. 9.20 on the clock already. Where did the time go? Ah, where did the time go? Where did the time go? Pasty STI have a good one. I'm checking out. Jim have a good one. John Ringer. There's lots of ways I've gone that you haven't. Interesting. I don't know that quote. Am I missing something here? So that is what we got on the NQs. We'll buzz through the core list of companies really quickly. But I mean, this market's about digesting at this point. The CPI move. All right. Let's do it. Qs, cash ETF for anybody who's interested. Your major range low is 707 down here. This is your 707. All right. So your simplified path and kind of looks like this. Right. Ideally, you would do this, this, this. If you're bullish, this is bullish for wagged fee. Right. And then a fizzle off the top of the range. If this thing closes the gap and does this, this is where we have that decision point we just talked about here and here. Then, of course, this is more bearish as well. It's just a range trade. It is a range trade on the Qs. As annoying as that is, as much as you're like, oh, my God, look at this gap up. It's got to do, you know, yada, yada, yada, yada. It doesn't have to do anything, number one. And number two, it's just the middle of this balance box. Okay. That's really all there is on the Qs. I think the reaction is pretty notable given the inline to slightly hot CPI report. But you've gone nowhere in this range. Right. So 722, 716, 75, 714 gap high, 712, 10 gap close. And then, of course, 707 is the follow through day low range low that we've been tracking for a while. Quick look at, let's just look at the IWM. IWM screaming back to the upside. This thing was like totally oversold headed into the report. So this one makes a little bit more sense to me. The NASDAQ is the one that's like maybe not a head scratcher, but you're like, okay, you've really done nothing on the NASDAQ. Let's jump on over into this NVIDIA chart. Nice reclaim of previous day high. It's looking like I think this could be interesting for look below and fails of the previous day high that then sort of get back above a VWAP or whatever to close the gap above. That's interesting for a long side. Let's go to Apple. Not interested. Microslop. Maybe a gap close above. Let's take a peek at Amazon. Nice rip. Where are we though? Right into the moving average cluster. I hate to say it, but probably more of a pullback watch there on Nancy. Google just ripping straight to the top side. And yeah, I mean, just it's up, but general trend is down. You're going to be gapping into a declining set of moving averages. Does it fade off of it? That's fine. Let's go on over this AVGO. I mean, going nowhere fast in this little box, but nice if you've been buying it off the lows at like 360s or whatnot, 359s. It is opening slightly higher. So is there some sort of Stevie Wonder here available into these highs? Possibly at 370. The metaverse. Look at this thing. Look at this thing. Oh my goodness. Ripper. Just total U, V-shape through the overnight. I don't know that there's anything for me to do with meta up here. I've told you why in yesterday's episode. This MU is not really getting a ton of love. MU not getting a ton of love here. I'd be curious if it like washes out and goes gap fill reversal. Look below and fail prior day low would be interesting for MU. Tesla. No thanks. Not really interested in this action in here. It's been very kind of uncertain of 366s. It didn't break away from it strongly to the downside yesterday. Here's JP Morgan. Midpoint of this general range when you do something that looks like that. AMD. 507. Nice hold. Good pop on CPI. But I don't know. Maybe a pullback into 507. Again, like a look below and fail of a prior day low could be interesting for something like that. Intel over here. I would also would have been interested in like a look below and fail. Of a prior day low. But that does not seem to be on the table for today's session. All right. That's it. That's what we got through the core list of companies. I know it was a speed round. But today is a CPI day. One heck of a move from this market in the upward direction. Let's see if it sticks. Doesn't stick. If it rejects. If it falls apart. If we go to zero. We'll see what happens. So have yourself a green and fantastic trading session folks. Today is Friday. Remember your Friday rules as we come into the session. Make sure that you're not doing anything that you're going to regret on the Saturday morning or Sunday morning brunch with the cousins, the second, fourth removed, long lost aunt, and of course the goldfish in the two gallon tank. All right. Have yourself a green and fantastic Friday. Big shout out to the usual suspects. You guys know who you are. And I will see you as always in the next one.