[LIVE] Pre-Market Prep – *CRITICAL* CPI Inflation Report – Live Market Reaction

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: We'll be right back. [00:00:30] Speaker ?: We'll be right back. [00:01:00] Speaker 1: We'll be right back. We'll be right back. [00:02:00] Speaker ?: We'll be right back. We'll be right back. [00:03:00] Speaker 2: We'll be right back. Wednesday morning, we've got a little bit of an overcast drizzle coming in this morning, which is a-okay by me. No problemo with a little rainy morning, a little dark. I like it when it's, if it's going to rain, it's got to stay dark. You know, that's just kind of the way it's got to be. So what's going on? Hopefully, you've been having a fantastic morning. I am settling into my morning myself. I do have to take a sip of this agua before we even get close to the coffee this morning. So we'll do that. We will, of course, have coffee and donuts on me up here in the office because it's CPI day. It is CPI day. We've got to figure out what they're feeling like is the correct ingredient for the session. We've got to figure out if they're going to run it a little hot, a little cool. Let's see where the cook numbers come in. But at the tippity top of the chat, let's scroll up there and see what's going on. We'll give them until about 8.05 to trickle on into the office. At the tippity top, of course, it's Mr. G with who's riding that Wednesday wave. Don't forget to sign in at the like desk for complimentary breakfast burritos and is that a tea? I believe that's a tea, right? That's a boba tea with those little bobo balls in them. Anyway, you can get a breakfast burrito and a tea at the like desk. You check in with Mr. G. Sounds good to me. We've got the Fade Doctor ET. We've got The Truth. Paul M., Mr. Hat. Bill Lakeside. Oscar Vice for victory. We've got Stock Trapper 128. Lazo P., Chris D., a friend in the market. Cipriano, Stock Trapper 128 again. Gene Jensen, good morning. We've got Dark Comet 9000. Doona B., Nigel Bites the Dip. Who else is here? Louis Rich, the fundraiser. Good morning. Arc Nemesis, Bamboozler, Tine Ocean, Blue Spartans, Mr. James, Bad Wolf. Mark C., Lipid JG, C. Black, Patrick B. PJ is in the penthouse, of course. C. Black, good morning. Isaac, Clotho M., Mike Bruck, FF Sleepy, Marcus G., President Djibouti, good morning. Dat Fam. Jarrett Mattson, Marview, Dangerous Function 54. Here we go. In many East Asian cultures, including China, Japan, and Korea, the number four is considered unlucky. Number four is the number of your like today. Uh-oh. Problem. Good morning to everybody from San Miguel, Mexico. You've got G., Ganucci. I feel like I'm saying that one wrong every time, and that's on me. That's, uh, Ganachusi, Ganachusi. Maybe it's that. Mays 400, Gut Fuel Trader, Renee F. We've got Timothy Bond, Bondic J.C., our senior news correspondent. We have, what's the message there? It's National Black Cow Day on June 10th. Celebrates a delicious ice cream float, also known as a root beer float. Good morning. You've got Shai in the house, Splash57, Nate Dalton. Good morning. J.C., our senior news correspondent. Again, classic. Who else? Oop, just got booted to the very bottom of the chat. Let's scroll up. Let's see if we can't figure out where we left off. Sure. Yeah, absolutely. We had Time Sellers, of course. Option Hawk, Mad Trade King, Fuzz, Entertain Me. Cahia is in the building holding down the 808, as we know. R.C. Bateman. We've got Teacher Russell with the chocolate, strawberries, and croissants this morning. What's going on, Caldy? Time to get the job done, indeed. Alley Trader. Pete and Repeat is here. Massive Oxdale. Nick Farrell. Ben Eats Rice. Leo from Brooklyn. Space Ginicorn. Atlanta Zone. J.Cool Trader again. Mighty Mouse. Johnny Quid. [00:07:00] Speaker ?: Woo! [00:07:02] Speaker 2: Wow. Marcel Fletcher. Here we go. Overthinking Koala. Florida Homes Investing. Eric. Desert Dean. Chris Gandy. Good morning. INF The Based Homie. Good to see you on a CPI day. Yes, sir. We've got Wednesday, June 10th. It's 8.04 on the clock. We've got about a minute to go until 8.05. We can kill some time today ahead of CPI. Parabolic FOMO Dip Rip is here. Dexter Trades Futures. Johnny Quid. Venus. A.K.A. Venus, I'm sure. Who else? Magzy77. Good morning. Carl Ware. We have Trading Paper. We have Trading Paper. Alicia. Good morning. And Ashley Anna. Two separate. Two separate names. We've got Tybalt. I like the positivity. Magzy says, today is going to be a good day. Regardless of CPI, I hope everybody has a great day. I could echo that sentiment. Miami Beach Broker. Good morning. We've got FJ. Gus Abbey. Bob the Day Trading Nomad. Good morning. Very inspiring the way Anna is all over the markets. Gotta love it. We've got Kevin the Uncanny One. Dirk Fisher Trades. Who else? Slow Trail Runner. Beth Jasos. Good morning. 8.05 on the clock. I haven't seen my infamous note here. I'll see if I can't find it. Aw Tizzy Dizzy. Good morning. XOXOXO Gaming. That's three X's, three O's. Uh-oh. Robert Rudeloff is here. Johnny Quid. Tommy. Good morning. Chris P. Capitalist Dog. Flippin' Ohio with the five gifted memberships. Very generous of you on a Wednesday CPI morning. Is he here? Uh-oh. Where's American Psycho? Where is tippity top of the morning? Registered. Mystery emoji and copywritten. We'll have to look for it at some point through today's session to find good morning. Jim Robitaille is here. We've got the whole gang minus American Psycho. Scott T. Phillip B. Thy dude. Forrest Gump Trades. Good morning. All right. Welcome one, welcome all. Let's get this show on the road. It is, of course, 8.06. We've gone over by just a hair. And let's keep moving forward. We've got on today's session, is this not refreshed? There it is. We've got on today's session the CPI numbers coming out at 8.30. Of course, this is the main event. This is what we're all here for. This is why I have coffee and donuts over at the like desk adjacent to the breakfast burritos and teas from Mr. G this morning. But this is it. This is the main event that we've all been waiting for. What I found most interesting about the previous CPI cycle was actually that it was not necessarily, I mean, yes, energy services, energy, definitely all getting a little bit hot there. But on the prior cycle, it was more about shelter inflation, which actually came in hotter than expectations and contributed quite a bit to core services there. So shelter inflation was up on the last print, not having anything to do with, I mean, maybe you could make the argument that there's some carry forward with owner's equivalent rent and the way that that's been going up because of, I mean, who knows how you could tie that back to energy in unlimited creative ways. But you get the point. It wasn't necessarily just driven by the price of crude. So CPI this morning is mostly, in my opinion, about core services. We want to be looking at core services CPI and figuring out whether or not that number comes in hot. That is the big deal for today's session where I believe many, you know, many analysts will be focusing, right? You know, if we're really trying to put ourselves in those shoes, then yeah, that's, in my opinion, where the focus will be. Core services CPI. Is it hot? Is it light? Is the owner's equivalent rent coming down? Is it, you know, what is going on with that shelter component? So this morning, we are looking at a 2.9 forecast on the core and then a 4.2 on the headline number for the year over year. Month over month slated to come down slightly from a point. 6, still very hot, 0.5, but down slightly, of course, month over month, you're, you know, it's going to be harder to get that same level of increase again, so to speak. And then, of course, on the core month over month coming in, you know, what I would consider a little bit more normalized at a 0.3. All right, so that is what we've got on the Wednesday, June 10th morning session here at 8.30. Based on kind of the PPI coming in hot last cycle as well, you know, I don't necessarily think, I don't necessarily think that this is, actually, CPI, hang on one second. Let's go over here real quick to the previous PPI numbers. Let's quickly go over here, clear, and this one. I thought the year over year not come in. Core PPI year over year, yeah, super hot. Right, 5% is over here. PPI year over year, 6%. Did beat the expectation of a 6.8, but, excuse me, the prior expectation. Interesting, interesting, super hot, super hot, super hot on the PPI. And once again, that's the producer price index telling us that this cycle should be hot as well. Okay, anyways, just wanted to double check that, make sure I wasn't talking out of the wrong side of my mouth here as it relates to inflation expectations. They should be up with producer price index. There it is. Whoa, American Psycho, tippity top of the morning to you. Registered bacon, copywritten, and, of course, getting some extra sprints in for good old Billy. Gotta love it. Gotta love it. INF the base tell me as well with the 48 months up here in the office, four years. That is one of the more legendary stickers or, you know, analyst, not analyst, what am I trying to say here? Membership tags that we've got up here in the office. That's insane. There it is. 48 months, four years up here in the office. That's a true original from INF the base homie. Gotta love it. All right. We've got ourselves CPI. That's the main event we're watching out for over here. And, of course, what we will do is jump on into the latest release when it actually comes out. We've got until about 830, another 20 minutes to go. And we want to jump into the detailed report, which, of course, is at the very bottom. We'll jump into our detailed expenditure categories right here. Table two is what we'll be looking for in just 20 minutes from now. All right. Let's not kill too, too much time. Let's continue along here with the economic calendar. And to the end of the week, just to be prepared, 101 this afternoon is the 10-year bond auction after CPI. That'll be interesting. Right? You get a fresh inflation print, and then you go straight into a bond auction. Really? Okay. So they're going to be responding to however the numbers come out over here, I would think, quite immediately. Right? Core PPI coming out on Thursday morning. That's tomorrow morning. Jobless claims, the usual stuff. 30-year bond auction to follow at 101. Then on Friday, we've got ourselves some runway here into consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, 10 o'clock after the market is open for 30 minutes. Right? So that's the economic calendar for the rest of the week. CPI is the main event for this morning, and we all, of course, know what we are looking for. I think we've sort of hit that one on the head already. We are looking for services, core services to be specific, and whether or not that is hot or cold. Let's jump on over into our FedWatch tool here. These are the odds ahead of CPI. As a matter of fact, it's probably worth archiving this and seeing how they change after. Let's just take a full screenshot of that. I'm going to throw this over on the old bird app and just say FedTrackerOdds, head of CPI. Let's see where they settle at day end. Great. We'll archive that. So that is where it needs to be. Fantastic. And we continue along. So currently still pricing in that rate hike in the month of December. I, you know, if the Fed sees that this is not necessarily coming just from crude. And again, I was a little shocked to see, you know, just preparing for today by looking back at the previous inflation print last month. I had to remind myself that it was core services CPI that actually saw an uptick outside of energy. Yes, a big contribution, obviously, from energy. That's, you know, without saying. But the owner equivalent rent component was way up. So if they're going to try to do something about that and say like, oh, you know, we're actually targeting this specific thing, even though rate hikes are a blunt tool. They'd say that all the time. You know, maybe there's some argument in there under the hood. Maybe. We'll see. That's the big million dollar question. We'll find out more in approximately 18 minutes. As we move forward from the FedWatch tool here, let's jump on over to the earnings calendar. You can see on this one, we've got yesterday after the close, Casey's don't really care. Chewy before the open, don't really care. Oracle after the close, absolutely care. That is going to be a big deal here. Oracle earnings for our data center play. What's going on with the open AI revenue? Is it still showing up? Is it not showing up? How many gigawatts are they bringing online, offline? We'll see what's going on, right? So Oracle earnings here after the close today. It's probably the main event on the earnings calendar. That's really it. So with that, we just move forward into our top line figures, courtesy of CNBC. Let's see what we see. We've got ourselves red across the financial futures, green on oil and the 10 year. We've got the Dow futures down about 84 basis points. S&P futures down 93 basis points. NASDAQ futures down a whopping 148 basis points across the top line. Oil futures up 193 basis points, 89.90 on the barrel price itself. U.S. 10 year is up ever so slightly, about 0.6 basis points, 4.534 on the actual yield itself. That is still hanging out right at the cusp of the breakout point. 4.5% and above is not really the look that the market's going for here. Pressure on rates via higher crude, although I would still give some credit over here. Yes, we'll read some escalation headlines in just a second. But although, you know, we got escalation, we're still underneath 90 bucks a barrel. It's a pretty interesting, not dilemma, but dynamic there for our crude pricing. Just a heads up on that. Those are the top line numbers. Let's take a quick tour through the headlines. Iran will pay the price and claims that they have taken too long to agree to a deal that is not a deescalatory comment that we've really been seeing more recently. And it just seems like we're at odds. And, you know, this is the same thing that's happened over and over and over again. I feel like a broken record. And honestly, you know, it's the same thing. It's just the same thing. They're taking too long to make a deal. They want to have nuclear ambitions. We can't allow them to have nuclear ambitions. They want to toll the straight. The straight needs to remain completely open for business, right? And it's just this standoff where it's like, okay, we're really close to making a deal minus nuclear, minus the straight, minus everything. But we're really, really close. And then, okay, they're taking too long. It's not going to work. They attack an Apache. Let's attack them. And, you know, so much for the ceasefire. So it is what it is. I don't think the market cares all that much anymore. I mean, they're making a big deal out of it in the headlines. But my God, I mean, crude oil here at 89.84 a barrel on headlines like that. What are we going to say? Like, are we at peak maximum fear anymore? No, we've backed off of that. We've moved in the deescalatory direction. And I just, I don't even think the NASDAQ and the S&P even care about it anymore, right? It's just like, whatever. It's more about the semiconductors and the fact that we're overleveraged in South Korea. And the market's pulling back aggressively in names like, you know, NVIDIA, obviously. The MAG 7's been getting thrashed, obviously. Although they're not all semiconductors, the hyperscalers are huge heavyweight components of the NASDAQ. So as much as this is a headline, as much as it's kind of interesting to look at and maybe think about the different strategies and tactics and whatnot. I mean, the crude market just, it's kind of telegraphing like, hey, we don't care. It doesn't matter. Whatever. Right. We've got May inflation numbers due on Wednesday morning. Yeah. Thanks. 15 minutes to go. Oil prices jump after Trump says Iran will pay the price. I mean, again, where are we jumping to? We're jumping to $90 a barrel. You guys remember when we were like knocking on the door of $110, $115, $120? I mean, just like completely different ballpark to be at $90 a barrel. I'm not going to say it's good, right? It'd be best if, you know, we had crude back down in the 60s. 60 handle would be great on crude, but that's just kind of where we're at. Let's scroll down. Let's see what else is going on here. Two reasons for optimism after Tuesday's whipsaw market sell-off. Yeah, whipsaw indeed. My God. Big down, kind of V-shape it into the close, sell it off gently overnight. Just gnarly volatility. Time to get back into this fast, casual stock. They're looking at Cava from Pro Club Pass personally. Anything that a consumer has to buy? I don't think so. You know, Chipotle not doing well. Mickey D's, if anything, is the spot to look. Pandemic car shortage are still making new and used cars expensive. I think that's, you know, just a structural shift in the car markets, used car markets after the sickness. Gates is going to come under some fire here. Gold and silver and Bitcoin fall as traders up Fed rate hike bets, right? So think about why. Stronger dollar, right? What else is going on here? Weekly mortgage demand surges 11% higher despite volatile interest rates. Excuse me. That's interesting. See what I did there? That's interesting. Sure. Super micro stock tumbles seven. Okay, let's try this headline again. This one's on me. Super micro stock tumbles on $7 billion financing plans. This company touts AI server orders. Okay, there you go. So a little bit of an offering here, just like the other, you know, you're thinking about your metas, you're thinking about your micro, uh, Googles, excuse me. Now it's super micro. The problem over here is that these guys have a very, very bad track track record as it comes to accounting, right? From smuggle my chips in to insane fraud, uh, kind of a tough stock to do that in and we'll see ultimately where it goes. Last I looked, the stock was gapping down towards the breakout points. Super micro is just now coming out of a stage one base, right? It's kind of like here out of your stage one base drifting into a stage two uptrend. So with the gap down on the $7 billion of financing, uh, it seems as though we're slated to open right at the top of that base. If I'm not mistaken, isn't it like 35 bucks or something like that? Just off the top of my head. Anyhow, interesting. It's probably worth keeping an eye on world cup will likely be the biggest gambling event in history. Yeah. I mean, Calci, poly market, all those things now that they're in the eyes of the beholder, uh, not that the super bowl wasn't, but world cup is literally global. So probably a big deal over there. GM eyes, new battery chemistry to grow AI data center, energy storage business. Yeah. They saw what happened with Ford and they were like, oh my goodness, we got to do the same thing. Let's rip it. SpaceX IPO price is set, but retail allocation is still up in the air. It's going to come in oversubscribed. That's all you need to know. $70 billion immigration funding package passes in the house. Anthropic releases mythos like model to the public two months after private launch sent shockwaves. What else? Uh, some political stuff. Meta agrees to Indian AI data center deal as hyperscaler bolsters its infrastructure. Interesting, but Meta does not deliver a data center. They just consume their own data center. They deliver it to themselves. Kind of interesting. Um, stocks just in the toilet as of right now. What else? Uh, golf. Sure. What else? Boeing. It's on my no fly list. Literally. Beijing escalating AI espionage to catch up with the U S on tech. Cyber security firm says interesting. China spying on us. Earn 250 bucks in bonus. Capital one cards sponsored slot of the day. Entergy CEO pushes back on fears that AI data centers will drive up electricity bills. How about it? All right. That's it through the big headlines this morning. Uh, honestly, we've done a good job of killing just enough time to give us about 10 minutes of some top-down analysis ahead of CPI. Um, let's just go see what the damage looks like overnight. And then we'll come and revisit the price table here for CPI. Sorry to blast through all this text just to get back to the table. Uh, we'll come revisit this table as we get the actual data, which is again, in about 10 minutes to go until CPI is ultimately released. In the meantime, grab yourself a sip of tea, grab yourself, self, a sip of coffee, water, whatever it is you've got at the desk. We've got complimentary coffee and donuts over at the like desk. If you didn't grab some on the way in, grab some now. And, uh, we'll see you over at the screens in just a second. Let's go take a look at the ES futures for our time scale. Let's do a little bit of top down ahead of CPI. And then we'll take a look when the numbers are released. Here we go. I'll see you at the screens in just a moment. All right. Just like that. Uh, this is the spider's cash on the hourly and 30 minute split. This is not quite the ES four hour chart, but all we've got to do is maybe click over here. We get the ES, we click over here, we get the four hour and we're doing just fine. So no problemo. We are a-okay. And, uh, we're taking a look at what's going on here through the four hour trend perspective. I mean, as of right now, I don't necessarily think we're holding up in the picture perfect way. I don't think it's destroyed, but I don't think it's picture perfect. Recall that this was the last major low ground control, the major low. Um, that was it. That was the low right there. And we held it on Friday. We smashed it yesterday and then we rallied to recover it. It just very, very violent session yesterday. And unfortunately through the overnight, we're not really seeing the market get, keep above and stay above that level. So I don't want to say it's down and out. Oh my God, the charts destroyed. But yesterday was a severe blow to the strength of the four hour chart. Reason I say that once again is because of the failure underneath this line in the sand, right? As we're counting four hour trend, we have hourly pullbacks, hourly downtrend in here. This means this is a four hour firm, higher low right here. This is four hour F for firm, higher low terra firma, if you will. And the market pushed away, right? We certainly made this higher high. So really at worst, you just want to see an equal low. And undeniably yesterday, we went out and we made a lower low. So as I'm thinking about the overarching trend of the four hour timescale, can I say that the four hour trend is up anymore? The answer is no. I can no longer say that the four hour trend is up. Which, you know, honestly, I'm a little, not shocked, but I'm a little bit surprised that there was as much volatility as there was yesterday on the downside in particular. I'm glad that it looks like we're trying to get it out of the way in one fell swoop. I do like the fact that it's, you know, not going to take us four months, like what it took from October to March of this year, right? I don't want to spend four months of the market going sideways. I would prefer that we had a sharp pullback. We set a weekly higher low and then we start looking for constructive uptrends and new names to get involved in. I would much prefer that. But I wasn't expecting as much down yesterday. I was expecting a little bit more sideways and then maybe a break to the downside or the top side, depending on CPI this morning. That was kind of the way I was thinking about the market this week with some just patience ahead of the CPI inflation print. It's not the way it unfolded. So objectively, going back to, you know, things we can and cannot say about the market, the four hour trend is no longer up. We did set a lower low. You do not have lower lows in uptrends, just not part of the vocabulary. So this is drifting into a downtrend, which means what? On rally attempts, we will have some opportunity. The bears will have some opportunity to rally and set some kind of lower high. If we rally back into an hourly uptrend and fail right around in here, this is going to be the head and shoulders formation that everybody's scared of. And for good reason, right? A lower high changes the trend. It keeps the trend down. One thing I will say here is if the market is, if the market's going to say, you know what? I've had enough, right? I've gone down far enough. And maybe we go look below and fail on the neckline of this head and shoulders that could stage a weekly higher low, right? And weekly higher low. I don't want to keep moving the goalposts. We've got to trade what's in front of us right here, right now. But I do need us to be aware that the weekly trend is still absolutely up. And if you didn't watch Saturday's update video, I would encourage you to go back, watch Saturday's update video. The weekly higher low is still absolutely in play. And it's something that we could easily set. It's not too much of a stretch of the imagination to think that, okay, after literally two months in the upward direction of, what was it? Seven, eight weeks, just vertical. The weekly chart could afford a pullback, excuse me, to set a higher low and then seek continuation, right? That is not impossible on the weekly timeframe. Now to get there, right? Maybe it looks like this. This is just one opportunity, head and shoulders, and then something in here. All right. So that is that. What else can we say? If the market gaps down on CPI, if we gap down underneath this, do we want to be short in the hole down here? That's another thing to consider. If in the next five minutes to go, we get a gap down under the 50, do I really want to be short into this previous left side peak? You know, it was microscopic, but this little flag that kind of broke out to the north side, no. I don't want to be short into this. I would prefer to wait and say, okay, can we long that, right, back, even if it's just for the counter trend to get to here? And then ultimately, you know, who knows? Maybe it does go head and shoulders or whatever. If we could do that, then maybe. But excuse me. First impulse would be this is a long, not a short into that level. All right. So that's some four hour perspective for us here headed into today's session. Let's go ahead and get into the hourly chart. We do have that CPI print coming in approximately four minutes, four minutes to go. T minus four minutes to go until CPI inflation is released. Maybe give this a little bump over here. T minus four minutes to go until the CPI print drops. Come see it live. All right. Good. T minus four minutes. What do we see here? I mean, again, the end of day rally yesterday was fairly impressive. The fact that we were able to retake Friday's low, the fact that we were able to retake primarily, remember what that represents, Friday's low on the futures. It wasn't as precise on the S&P cash, but right in here in this neighborhood, 73.65, right? 73.65 was a big spot weekly wise that the market broke. And, you know, honestly, if you're a stronger seller, you want to see a lower high underneath that. I've got to say, I was a little impressed with this rally into the end of the day that the market just said, nope, V-shape recovery, retake Friday's low, retake the weekly level. Granted, right? We are lower again in the pre-market session. That's a given. But as of right now, just have to give a little bit of credit to those buyers, taking that back above the level. Stronger sellers intraday should have yielded a lower high underneath. Now, again, we are underneath the level now and CPI comes out in the next two and a half minutes. So watch this very closely, but I'm just, this is not, this is not really, right? Strong sellers don't look like that. This is like, holy unload, but then strong sellers, or I should say just a lack of new money buyers, people who are, you know, this is like everybody went out and just bought the dip. They sold everything this morning. People who sold up here bought through here, right? It's kind of crazy. So we're getting one day trend reversals now on this market and we'll see kind of where we go from here, but let's just hang tight. We get CPI in about two minutes. This is a five minute timescale chart. We'll ask ourselves the three and a half questions. Once we ultimately have the CPI numbers out, we'll go take a quick tour through the actual breakdown of the detailed numbers. Where's their inflation? Where's their not? And we'll go from there. All right, let's go ahead and grab a sip of this coffee ahead of CPI. It's coming out in about a minute and 40 seconds. Just as a reminder, we do have the services, core services, CPI component to really pay attention to and ensure that it doesn't get too, too crazy, right? That is absolutely something to be paying attention to. Let me come over here and just grab the reference. Yeah, I mean, shelter CPI component addition was about, I mean, it was just shy of 30 basis points of the contributions. Normally, it's like 10. So it kind of tripled, just shy of a triple in the last inflation print. Core CPI services. Rent of shelter. Or just all shelter. So really, really hot number there. Rent of shelter was the biggest component of that. Owner's equivalent rent was up 39 basis points. So that's where my brain is at as we come into this morning's CPI print in about 30 seconds. Buckle up. Lock in. Let's make sure we are ready to get the job done here in the next couple of minutes, seconds really, and see what we get. Here comes CPI. We are zoomed in on an ES, S&P 500 futures, five-minute timescale chart. This is S&P. That's a horrible-looking S. S&P 500. Five-minute chart. Here we go. Numbers are officially out. They're locking it up on Thinkorswim. Initial impulse is down, getting bought right back up. Let's see what we have here. First initial impulse is to offer and sell. Second impulse, after a pause there, is higher. Bit it higher. Remember, a big line in the sand here for the ES futures is technically this 73.65 level. This is your multi-week low. So rejection here for a lower high is actually pretty telling in terms of buyers not being able to get the job done. We'll give this about another 60 seconds to go to see how the algos respond to the number ultimately. And then we'll go jump through the detailed report and see ultimately where that inflation is showing up. And where it's not showing up. Or if there's any deflation anywhere, God, you know, God help us. If there's deflation somewhere, oh my goodness. So, once again, this big 73.65 level is your key catalyst. Not catalyst, but it's the inflection point the market must get above if it's going to do something interesting. All right. In the chat, JC has us covered. Excuse me. Breaking news. Month over month in line at 0.5 on the month over month non-core. Core month over month 0.2 forecast 0.3. That's a beat. We've got core CPI year over year, actual 2.9 forecast, 2.9 in line on the core year over year. And the non-core year over year, 4.2 forecast, 4.2 in line. Beautiful. I mean, hey, that's not a bad look to see in line numbers. It's better than acceleration. However, it's not a cooling off. Market ideally would have looked for a better cooling off. Tough look. Tough look. All right. Not enough deflation. Crude futures coming down a little bit is not enough to unwind some of the pressure. It's not an acceleration, but it's still that. Let's take some sips of this coffee here and let's keep moving. 8.32 in 30 seconds on the clock. Our 73.65 level is acting as the lid. Right? So, again, this is not like when I say our level, it's the market's level. It's not my level. I think everybody can see this level. But this is the weekly multi-week low. The fact that we're rejecting in here is not what you want to see. If you're a bull, that strong close yesterday above that level should be resustained. And clearly, we're experiencing some volatility, but we're not able to recapture and reclaim that 73.65 level. So, not the end of the world. Not like, oh my God, let's just throw our hands up in the air and crash and burn. Obviously, we're not gapping down. We didn't see a big opening drive to the downside on the CPI print. It's not like we're finding ourselves at like 72.20s, right? So, so far, I'd say a well-ish received unchanged print from the market here. I'd be very curious to see actually what the Truflation folks have to say about this. And they're probably tweeting about it right now. So, let's see. Let's see what we've got. Let's go over here to Truflation. They're actually hosting a live call, it looks like, through this. Yeah, they haven't reported anything yet, but I'm sure they're actively talking about it. We'll see what the Truflation number folks give us in just a moment. But so far, I mean, let's zoom out just a little bit. Before we go dive through the detailed report and take a look at the table, once again, keep in mind 73.65 is the multi-week low that's rejecting right now. However, this is not as bad as it could have been. Remember, we're mostly unchanged. I'd say we're primarily unchanged on the inflation print there. And if we just take a look at the 15-minute chart, you know, it's not bad. We could have been here and then breaking to a new low and gapping down on a hotter than expected report, and it's not really what we're seeing. So the big argument now is just like, is the market able to do something with this 73.65? 73.65 is the big tell. So if you're looking at ES futures in terms of a number to track, that's it. That is the number to sort of keep as you're over under. Over 73.65, under 73.65 ES futures, right? So let's go back and over to the screen here, and let's just quickly browse through the table. All right, this is not the updated numbers yet, so let me refresh this. This is now the updated numbers. Let's go down to the bottom. We want the detailed expenditure report. Here we go. And the column we care about here, it's June, so they're reporting the seasonally adjusted April to May numbers. That's this right-hand side column, and if you want the year-over-year, year-over-year unadjusted is here. Okay? So this is that top headline number 4.2. This is that month-over-month 0.5. Okay? Let's scroll down. Let's see where there's really hot prints versus not. So on the month-over-month, you want to look for anything, you know, 2% in a month. That's huge. All right, so flour and prepared flour mixes don't really care much about this. Food category comes in pretty unchanged. I mean, there's going to be some funny stuff in here. Biscuits, rolls, and muffins inflating big time, so heads up on that. Coffee cake deflating. It was very cheap for me to buy the donuts this morning. There you go. Down 2.8% on the month-over-month. 3.6 uncooked beef roasts. With this whole screwworm virus going around in Texas, there's two confirmed cases, this would be a number to watch if beef is impacted for next month. Obviously, we've got a month to wait until we actually see that, but, you know, it wouldn't be unreasonable if your beef price is headed higher into the next report. What else is going on over here? Frankfurter's down big time. Paltry's up. What else? Four on eggs. 4% inflation on eggs. So much for that big down, you know, 35%. See that in the headlines again. I'm sure that one will circulate today. What else? Your fruits and veggies. Kind of a mixed bag through here. Oof, big time in lettuce. There you have it. What else is going on in the big leagues over here? Looking for big outlier salad dressing. So your lettuce got more expensive, but your salad dressing got cheaper. Okay. Peanut butter. I love when that comes down. That's my classic lunch. Go to oatmeal and peanut butter. Peanut butter and mush, as we like to say. Condiments up. That's fine. We don't like ketchup. So fine. Let ketchup just completely fall off a cliff and nobody cares. When I say fall off a cliff, nobody's going to buy it because it's so expensive. Ketchup is the bane of my existence. Moving along. What else is going on here? Energy, right? This is the column that matters. Not shocking to see that it's up to this magnitude. 3.9%. Energy commodities, obviously. Big ups with the crude futures doing what they've been doing. This is not surprising to see all these really big prints through this entire category. Anybody shocked? I don't think we should be. Interesting to see piped gas services are down about half a percent. So natural gas. So, you know, obviously a little bit more domestic. What else is going on here? All items, less food and energy. So there you go. This is going to be your core. Your core CPI headline. Your core CPI month over month, 0.2. Let's see where we're at with just interesting outliers. But primarily, remember, it's services. Services, which is shelter when it comes to the core component. Major appliances, inflating laundry equipment. New washer and dryer. Tariffs, maybe. What else is going on here? Big numbers that are outliers. What else on the inflation report? Women's dresses getting cheaper. Sundresses for the summer, I suppose. What else? Women's footwear getting more expensive. So can't buy a cheap dress without counterbalancing it with an expensive shoe. Drulean watches up a bit. I wonder if that has to do with gold prices generally still being rippled through the market there. What else is an outlier? Recreational reading materials are getting expensive. They don't want you reading anymore. No good. Let's see what else. College textbooks up. Beverages down. Kind of flat through here. Nothing crazy. And then, of course, here we go. This is shelter. There it is. This is actually a really... This is nice. So I don't have... Let me see if I can go look at the ES futures in the background. Yeah, I mean, they're just standing kind of unchanged near that 7357, 7360s right around in there. This is actually really helpful. This is really, really helpful right in here. See this shelter number coming down to a 0.3? I mean, this is cut in half on the month over month. And this is, like I was saying earlier, where we really got to pay attention to the impact of core services. This is like the biggest component, right? You can see over here the weighting of shelter. It's like 35% weight, right, of this component. So it's huge. It's absolutely huge. So the fact that that got cut in half, it's a really strong read. Rent of shelter, again, getting cut in half here in terms of the rate of inflation. This doesn't mean that your rent is going to go down. Like, I know this is the part that's like nobody likes to hear, but inflation coming in light doesn't mean things go down. It just means they go up less, right? So this is a good look here. Rent of primary residence, kind of small downtick over there. That's, you know, people aren't just going out and buying. This is basically owner's equivalent. Now, here it is, owner's equivalent rent. There it is. People aren't just going out and buying houses left and right. I mean, it's kind of like you buy one and you stay in it for 30 years, or at least that's the idea. So it's nice to see that number stabilize a little bit, not necessarily get two bananas. Big decrease in lodging away from home. I wonder if we're going to start seeing some uptick in that in the next report, though, for the World Cup stuff, maybe. What else is in this? Household insurance, big inflation there. Hate this number. All right, that's that. What other core services are doing something interesting? Utilities, meh. Moving storage, freight expenses are down. Medical care is a little up here. Dental services are up big time. Get your teeth checked, I guess. Hospital related. What about transports? Interesting to see transports down. You know, I would expect transport services to be up just based on fuel input costs. And it's not really, uh, not really it. I guess because this is leasing, it's not the actual transportation of stuff. Maintenance and servicing. Yeah, I guess that makes a little bit of sense. [00:44:06] Speaker 1: Hmm. [00:44:07] Speaker 2: Interesting. Airline fares up big time with the crude prices doing what they're doing. But they seem to always be volatile. Remember, this is like, this is an interesting string of increased fuel prices there for airline fares. All right. That's good. Usually at the very bottom, we have some interesting miscellaneous stuff. Like what? Admission to sporting events getting more expensive. Tuition. Tuition's flat. Wow, look at that. Tuition month over month for colleges is flat. Crazy. No more highway robbery. Where's, uh, where's like tickets? Isn't tickets down here? I could have swore tickets were down here somewhere. Um, parking fees and whatnot. Is that on here? Yeah, parking and other fees. There we go. Uh, this is with transportation services. 0.7. What do we have at the bottom though? Haircuts. This was interesting. Tax return preparation and other accounting fees up 11.8%. Crazy. That's a little wild. With the advent of, of GPT. I mean, what are we, what are we doing here? GPT is like your, your tax executive now. And you just funnel everything through there. Why is that up so much? Interesting. Uh, if you've got a good accountant, pay him well. But, you know, for most folks, I don't know. It seems a little hot. All right. That's the, uh, that's the big table. That's kind of what we got going on. I would say like, if we just snap back to reality for just a second, the most serious thing that I'm seeing here that does give me a little bit more of a compelling read on inflation is this shelter print. Seeing shelter get cut in half on the month over month is really what you want to see. You don't want that thing to get out of control. Typically good reads in here are between 0.3s and 0.2s. If we can sustain that style read on the shelter number, then yeah, maybe we do have an anchor to inflation overall and KW won't have to go out there and hike rates as his first sort of test as fed chair. With that, uh, we should jump back on over to the screens. If you missed the first fancy transition, we'll get ready. We're doing it again. I'll see you over at the dashboard for the ES futures in the four hour, or I guess it's going to be the 15 minute chart. Grab yourself another sip of tea, coffee, water, whatever it is you've got at the desk and I'll see you at the ES charts in just a moment. All right, there we go. Back on over to the ES futures on this lovely 15 minute timescale. So CPI, I think well enough received from the market, not really doing anything too, too crazy here after the heels of the release. We are not indicating a gap, but my goodness, how are you going to gap out of a range that is as large as what we had yesterday from, let's just call it 7,500 down to 72 fifties. I mean, you had 250 points of ES range to deal with on yesterday's session. Just an absolute brutal sell to only be V bottomed straight back up into these highs. Interesting stuff there. All right, let's get down to business with the three and a half questions as we typically do. Let's make sure we can get the job done for today's session and let's begin here. Number one, what do we see relative to the previous day's range? Where are we opening? We're opening in the midpoint of the previous day's range. This is a fairly irritating open if I'm not, you know, you know, if I'm being honest, my preference this morning would have been CPI came in so bad that we gap down and then we can only go up from there, right? Things can only get better from here if CPI is, you know, the worst of the worst. That's not the case. We came in in line. Fine. Number one, neutral. We're opening in range. Number 1.5. Where are we opening relative to the value area? Obviously, yesterday's value area is purely mathematical. It is not representative of two-sided trade at all. This is where 70% of the previous volume transacted as distributed from the point of control and you're opening inside the middle of value. So, C-Link, it's your lucky day. You get two pedestals back to back to back. Let's jump on over into, actually, it was won by an outsider yesterday, dare we say. But, let's go ahead and throw that on when I say, oh, I got it. I don't know what's going on. I don't know if it's the humidity or what, but I can't escape this whole tightness of breath. 1 and 1.5. Let's hit the P for Patience pedestal. Here we go. Come on. Come on now. Not an outsider, but an outsider to the pedestal museum. All right, let's make it crazy this morning. What do we want? We probably want round, square, round. Nice. We'll keep it even keeled on the sidebars. They just get better and better as the time goes on. All right, so here's our P for Patience pedestal. We're going to execute some degree of patience this morning. We won't get abstract with the Pixar pedestal. Maybe we'll just draw in a little beefier of a P like that. Sure. Works for me. A little foot on it. No crazy serifs. Just a little bit of a hangover like that. And we're good. No auction for this one, please. No auctions for this P for Patience pedestal. This one is reserve auction only. Straight to C-Links collection. Private collection. 1, 1.5 done. Let's move along to number two. What do we see out of question number two? Where are we opening relative to the overnight range, right? Here's the high. Here's the low. The overnight range is contained within the previous day's range. But once again, it's fairly straightforward that with the expansion of range we had yesterday, it's pretty tough to get out of that. Nonetheless, what do we do about it? It doesn't really tell us a lot, right? We're in the midpoint of the overnight range here. So another neutral indication, unfortunately, which really points me back to this kind of patient approach, not really getting too gung-ho to do stuff in the middle of this. It's really a wide and loose range from yesterday, right? This is a wide and loose chart. This is not tight and controlled price action. This is a volatility increase, not volatility contraction. Let's go on over to point number three. Overnight inventory is what? This is where you can break out the abacus if you've got access. There's your settlement. How much time was spent above? How much time was spent below? Excuse me. We can see here that we do have more time and distance spent underneath. But this, of course, is correcting some of the overnight inventory. I'd go out on a limb and say something like, we're probably in the neighborhood of about 80%. Maybe it's a little less than 80%. Why not break out the abacus? Got dueling abacus sigh on the desk. May as well use them. Shake the reset. Do some quick math. Okay, perfect. Now that that's done, the number I'm getting here with this sort of countertrend rally that's shaping up post-CPI, it's giving us more along the lines of a 64.79%. And that's, of course, continuing over the nine. Quick calculation this morning. And that just means that if there's going to be any inventory correction, it might be in the upward direction, right? So this is net short. And inventory correction should technically be in the upward direction based on that. All right. So that is what we've got on that one. Nope. Definitely not sick. Just technically, just a broken biomechanic for my personal body. I don't know what it is. I don't know what it is. Happens at the change of the season. Usually when the humidity really starts to ramp up is when it gets the worst. So that's kind of right about now in the good old swamp. Okay. Yes, futures. We're good here with our three and a half questions. We know that there's some degree of patience being offered for this morning's open. And generally speaking, if you didn't watch it as we were looking at the live reaction for the market, this is the big bad number right at 7365. 7360. Whoa, let's make that a six. There we go. Looks a little funky, but you get the idea. That's the big weekly level. Weekly inflection point right there. All right. INF, the base homie. Yellow giraffes at the 499 in the chat. Thanks for all you do. Literally the only morning show I frequent to get my head out of my before the trading day. Get some tea and honey. Appreciate that. Yellow giraffes in the chat. Yeah. I mean, it's like I've tried all the stuff. I've tried, you know, the different supplements. I've tried it all. And I just don't know. I don't know what it is. I've got no idea. I'm at a loss. At a loss. Trap bear 91 with the 11 months. Yo, Matt, I'm reaching out to request technical support assistance. For my account access. Specifically regarding the emoji department privileges. What do you need in the emoji department? I don't know how to, I don't know what that means. I don't know how to control that on YouTube at least. They should be in there. I don't know. You got your TVs of the world. You got your coffees of the world. You got your Fiji waters. Your Bloomberg terminals. Your bloomies. All the stuff. The piano. It's a Steinway, by the way. You've got the Eames lounge, of course. You got the turbo, the original. You got the crayons. You got the floors. You've got the abacus eye. It's plural now. All right. Let's jump forward. Let's get a little bit more serious here. 8.50 on the clock. Let's get the job done here with our pathing, shall we? 3, 2, 1. Poof. Gone. Let's take a swig and, no, this is sip and poof. This is original sip and poof. Emojis are disabled? I don't know how. I don't know how to un-disable them. Huh. Emojis are disabled this morning? Maybe I'll have to look into that. I have no idea what's going on. I don't know how to re-enable them. Anybody else running into that problem? They look fine to me. All right. Let's go ahead and take a look from ES futures over to the 15-minute chart. The pathing is what we're looking for. The pathing, pathing, pathing. There he is, Jay Clark. I see you sneaking in. All right. ES pathing on the 15-minute timescale. Knowing that we have P for patience as a virtue for this morning's open, it's all going to revolve around this level right here for me. What happens at 73.65? I think we've been pretty clear about how big of a line in the sand that is for markets, and it's going to remain that way. So if the market tries to rally, kind of fails in here and comes back below, I don't really see a world in which we can remain overly optimistic. Maybe there's a 50 SMA official washout kiss. Look below and fail of previous days low, and we get long opportunities down there. But a failure of this level is pretty detrimental. So actually, I'm going to draw this in like this. Failure of this level, and then probably a break of like opening range. How do I want to do this? Something along these lines, just so we can see a couple of reference points, both up and down. There we go. Let's shift that over like that. There we are. Okay. This, this, this, this. Great. You know, if we do something that looks like this, I still think that you're in trouble down here. This just kind of builds out a descending triangle or whatnot. And I think you have to at least go down, kiss the 50. Maybe it turns into look below and fail from there. And then, you know, maybe it's up, up, up, right? And that turns into the constructive high or low from the weekly perspective, but we're not there yet. So I would leave it off at kind of like this for today's session. If we do something that looks like this and hold above that level, then I think the long has to be here, right? You're kind of looking for this rotation back up towards previous day high, retracing the thin structure, and you're quote unquote punishing any of the shorts who are still short from somewhere in here, right? That's the nature of the beast. So it might not be the easiest or like the most compelling thing to like say, okay, just like let's figure out what side of this line we're on. But that's really all I can see that there is to do other than being patient and reading intraday price action against this level, right? That is your Huckleberry today. We'll come in with a couple of additional pathing ideas in here in just a second. But this is the ultimate sort of over under. Let's put this in such a big sort of spot that it would become like impossible to miss 73. 73.65 right here. That is the big bad level for today's session. 73.65 weekly. Lows. Let's just say lows. Sure. Are we above? Are we below? If we're below, bears are trying to do something, right? If we can get some kind of, you know, again, like, do we end up weekly high or low? I'm just going to put a question mark next to this because it's way too early to confirm that. But that's kind of the idea. If you're a believer that the bull market is very, very young. If you're a believer that the bull market is going to continue and, you know, have another couple months in it, then you're looking for a weekly high or low. Somewhere near the 50 SMA on the ES futures, S&P 500 cash, similar, right? Weekly high or low question mark goes down here. And, you know, I kind of fall into that category to some degree. I would say that this is not the, you know, not unreasonable for the market to do. I wouldn't want to be short in the hole. That's my main, main, main thing. So the market gives us opening drive to the downside that looks like this. You could maybe short the brigade bolt underneath the overnight low, but I would not be aggressively short here into the previous day's low. I would be looking for, once again, look below and fail. 50 SMA hold. And then here becomes your reevaluation at the overnight low. Hit that with a cyan cran level in just a second. You know, your question there becomes, okay, bears remain in control, trouble, or back above. And now you're talking about just a balance session, which is going to be very frustrating, but at least helpful for the general look of the market. On a strong opening drive above this level, you might squeeze. I think there's some opportunity to squeeze. I would manage expectations on that. I'm going to put a little me on top there. M-E, manage expectations. I just don't think you want to be, I think you want to be very open-minded to two-sided trade in this market, if I'm being honest, right? I think you want to be open to two-sided trade. This could easily fail. Come back down and, you know, sort of noodle around the level, so to speak. So if I were to draw that in, what's that look like? You're here. You know, you're through. This then does this. You know, you're a little bit choppy through here. Then maybe in the future we resolve it higher, right? That's an opportunity. So, like, those are the ways that I would approach this market today. I think everything really boils down to which side of 73.65 you're on. And then beyond that, you've got a couple of additional little wiggle and waggles to kind of pay attention to, right? So 73.65 is the big cyan crane level there. This level, as we've talked about in the past, is 74.20s. All right? So I'm going to label this here. 74.20 is this and this. This up here is our 74.70s. We've talked about this level in the past. Right? This overnight low zone down here is 70. Let's call it 73.05 to about 7,300 flat. This previous day low 50 SMA value is 72.45. That is the first way that I would approach this morning's session with some key levels, right? CPI is now in the rearview mirror. We've gotten the unknown unknown, and we'll see where we go from there. Rob trades with a great reminder, right? Five billion. That's not a million, Rob trades. That's 54 billion people up here in the office. It's a pleasure to see you all. Remember, we're live every morning at 8 a.m. Eastern time. Come hang out. Not every day is a CPI day. I get it. Not everybody is, like, trying to figure out what the market's doing on, you know, if it's a non-event day. But come hang out. We're live every day. 8 o'clock Eastern time. Right here, building the path and game plan. Why do we spend so much time on the ES? Because if we can understand what the broad market's doing, then we understand whether or not we should be aggressive, risk on in the high beta names. We should understand if we should be aggressive on MAG7. And just a lot of people trade ES futures, period. So that's that. I think it's, I think it's a, I think a lot of people, a lot of people like it. A lot of people like the ES. But generally, like, if you don't understand what the broad market's doing, then, you know, I think that generally makes it harder, harder to execute the others. All right, let's maybe come in with the green and red crayon here. Let's make sure everybody knows what we're working with. We've got 8.57 on the clock. And like, we got a, we got a, we got a method to the madness, right? We get to the core list. We get to the NASDAQ. We get to all the stuff. We, you know, there's, there's time. It's 8.58. We got 30 minutes to buzz through the remainder of the stuff. We could spend the first hour making sure we understand what's going on with the broader marketplace. I think that's a good thing. So we'll do this. Now, the interesting thing about today's session is that we will have some of these green dots with white outlines around them, because as mentioned prior, we actually have fallen into a daily lower low, right? In this case for the ES futures, the four hour, but a four hour lower low means that, yeah, some of these green dots are counter trend until proven otherwise. And I'm sure you know which ones I'm talking about. It's anything underneath the level, anything underneath 73.65 gets a green or excuse me, a white collar around it on the upside pathing ideas, right? This can go here. This can go here. And then, you know, honestly, if we're just trying to balance out that, that framework, you could say white dot around that one. And that's probably it. All right. So, I mean, there's more of a short opportunity today being underneath that level. And I mean, there has been short opportunity. Don't get me wrong. People have been crushing the short side here Friday and then even yesterday. So there's opportunity on both sides there. So let's grab a screenshot of this. Let's make sure it's preserved in the halls of infamy for forever. It may disappear when I click on this other monitor. That's what seems to be happening. A few times it has done that on me. So here's the click. Looks like it's staying where it needs to stay. Okay, I'll take it. ES pathing. Let's hit the archive. And let's keep going. Did the data come out? Yes, about 30 minutes ago. That's from A.O. Hendrix. I think I'm saying that right, maybe. But, yep, we got the data. Came in in line. Okay, just the point collector on the ES. Whoa, what did I miss? Lawrence, 1994 with the 10 gifted memberships. Very generous of you on a beautiful Wednesday overcast morning. Shout out, Lawrence. Shout out to the 10 new members joining us this morning. I see some usual suspects in there. It's always nice to see, like Crimson Eyes, for example, getting the gifted membership. Usual suspect up here in the office. All right. Let's clear it up. Let's quickly hit with 9 o'clock on the clock. Let's see what happens on news days. Let's hit the spider's cache. Let's kind of speed around the remainder. And let's make sure we can get into the core list of companies. Here we go. 3, 2, 1. Let's take a swig and snap. Made it audible that time for you. Apologies if you're, uh, that's gross. All right. Let's jump on over to the spider's cache ETF. Let's see what's going on over here. Again, nasty, nasty route yesterday. I was more of the mindset that the market could have been a bit more balanced and tame ahead of CPI. And then CPI would gap us either underneath the weekly lows or gap us up back above the 20 SMA or something like that. Not the situation. Market's gotten a sharp pullback. The one thing I will say here is the market has pulled back from the all-time high. You know, on just a little, little insider tip, so to speak, markets pulled back about 5%. We've been talking about this in the group. I mean, you get a 5% pullback in markets about three times, maybe 3.5, three and a half times a year, right? There's one right there. So peak to trough 5% down. I mean, after a historic mind melting rally in the upward direction, you know, is it really doing anything insanely out of the ordinary? Again, was I expecting down, you know, this much in one session? No, absolutely not. That was not the expectation there at all. But generally, the move for the market, is it doing anything that's so hard to wrap our brains around? You know, a 5% pullback after just like straight up, not really that bad, right? So again, not trying to sound like this is the easiest short in the world to catch. Not trying to sound like everybody expected this and it was just like so obvious. I'm just saying with the benefit of hindsight now at a 5% pullback from the highs, okay, we can understand the demand. Markets go up, markets go down, and let's see where we go from here, all right? So the game plan for, whoa, game plan for today, funky zoom. The game plan for today is generally where are we based on the key level, right? It's a little bit different on the spiders cash. You can see we had a gap closed down here. We did close that gap to 7.25, and the weekly shelf of lows is 7.32.25. Where does the spiders hang out relative to this number right here? Do we do this, right? Do we stay above and do this and then flag out? Great, that's bullish here. Does this kind of fail back below? In which case, let me try that again, sorry. We're opening slightly above the level. Look right here on the right. Above, so this kind of keeps you in play. This is fine, right? Great, flag out maybe and go. Who knows, maybe this is just brigade bolt up as well. This failure pattern in here, a little bit heavy. Then when we get here, I would be looking for like this. This sets you up for lower highs. Maybe you're lower into, this should be 7.12.5. That is your weekly higher low, right? That's that to the downside. 50 SMA is just a touch off the screen in that neighborhood, right? 50 SMA, okay. That's that one. Obviously, this really struggled to get short in the hole there. I would look for a snapback, reevaluate here. That's that same little inside path we drew on the market in the ES, right? So that's the equivalent pathing here with the numbers. Your big bad number to watch, the number to beat for the market today on the SPY cash side, 732.25, 732.25, right? There it is. Okay, to clear that up, let's quickly go on over to the nasty NASDAQ. I'm going to bump this up to the four-hour timescale. We'll start here, and then we will jump into smaller timeframes. So once again, got to be very clear and honest with ourselves that on the four-hour timescale, we are no longer in a clean uptrend, reason being is we took out these prior lows. The most bullish thing here would be just the classic reclapture, as we've coined the term. That is copyright pending. Reclapture that previous level at roughly 28,800, give or take, 2850s. If that reclapture takes place, then great. Maybe we're higher from there. And this is just a big old overshoot. You know, everybody gets all bared up on the head and shoulders. You overshoot the neckline, reclapture, and then you're higher, right? And then all of a sudden, this is like, oh, would you look at that? It's an inverted head and shoulders, right? So pattern traders rejoice. All we're doing is identifying where we're at in the trend count based on some pivots. That's the big line in the sand. So just like we had that 74.65 on the ES, excuse me, or was it 73? 73.65. Just like we have that, in the NQ futures, your equivalent is 28.8. 28.8. Let's clear that up. Let's take it down to the hourly chart. Oops, hourly. Hourly. Hourly trend is down. Highs, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, lows, lower lows, big time, lower low, right? Volatility expansion. I mean, heck, you could technically draw in a broadening formation on the downside, which is wild, but it's true. Broadening formation of the downside. Volatility expansion on the pullback. And on the NQ futures, once again, the trend is down here. So you're trying to find a reclaim, then you've got to get, got to get over 28.8, got to get over 28.8, right? That would be the more compelling look for the re-clapsure argument. Let's go to the 15-minute chart. Let's ask quickly the three and a half questions. Opening in range, opening in value. Yeah, in value. Oh, looks like I got them backwards again today. Let's go from value area high. Let's just label this VAL. Double value area highs. And then this, is that correct? Yeah, it is still value area high. Great. Okay. Simplified pathing ideas. Everything will revolve around the same premise. P for patients. Not looking to get overly gun trigger happy, I should say. It's usually, it's gun shy and trigger happy. But not looking to get overly trigger happy here. P for patients in range, in value technically, with the four-hour pivot right here. All right. So what is this number? This is 28. Oops, come on. Play nice with me. This is 28.850 to 785. 28.850. Right there. That's your big bad weekly lows. Whew, that's a tough looking S. My God. There's a certain level of fidelity that we've got to preserve here. We can't get too crazy. All right. Like the ES futures, above, great. Maybe you do this. You come in, you pull back, you whatever, right? And you're just kind of like bullish here. Maybe in the future, it's up and out. If it just goes opening drive, sure. Up and out. No problem. If this fails back below, you know, heads up. I would expect at least the overnight low. A rebound off of that, that still sets a lower high here is problematic. Goes through. At least test previous day is low. If we just get screaming opening drive down here, that's fine. Once again, this should do this, just like the ES futures. And then here, it's a little bit more balanced. Okay. Those are the primary paths that I would be focused on. Those are the situations. It's the sequencing that I would be looking for. This 28,850 is your big over under. This level near the overnight high is 29,100. 29,100. This zone up here is 29,450s, was it? Yeah. 29,450s. This level down here is at 28,5. And then this previous day low in the full gap closes 28,2. Okay. That is what we've got to start. 29,763 up here, just to have it. Let's round off, call it 7,65. All right. Let me take a screenshot, archive this, get the agents doing their workflow in the background, and we'll keep moving. Okay, good. That's where that needs to be. Let's update this. Letting that simmer for just a second. Grab a sip of coffee if you're at the desks waiting for me to keep moving forward to the queues. We'll do that in just a moment. Just a moment. All right. Here we go. Let's do this. All right. That's working in the background. All right. QQQ cash ETF, 909 on the clock. 3, 2, 1. Sip and poof. It's not working now all of a sudden. Great. Keyboard shortcut doesn't want to work. Got it. All right. QQQ cash ETF, similar ideas, different numbers, right? A little bit of patience to start the day. As much as I want to, as much as I want the market to go up, I got to just sort of recognize, you know, this is a nice looking low for sure. V shape right off of it. But, you know, this morning's open. Eh, still leaves a little bit to be desired. I think the biggest thing to watch is just the weekly low right there. It's that 669 spot on the QQQ cash. If we could stay above that, right? This is kind of your bull territory. Reclaim of Friday's low is also a trade that's over 706. That's the equivalent of the 29.1 level from the NQ just a moment ago. So if I were to simplify this, you know, we're looking for holds in here, up to this, maybe you balance around. This is where the bulls get back on the horse. You fail this area. You probably come down to the lows, right? Something that does this, this closes the gap. And then by that time, you know, this doesn't have to happen all in one fell swoop, but your 50 SMA is in line, right? Maybe that's weekly higher low question mark, right? So that's it. That's like primarily what I would be looking for is just once again, 699, 700 over under what happens with the prior weekly pivot lows. Do we support? Do we not? That's it. That's like the biggest question to ask and answer for this morning session and go from there. All right. Three, two, one, poof. Let's jump on over to everybody's least favorite index. Stay in your seats. If you want extra coffee and donuts on a CPI morning, then hey, stay in your seats as we're covering the Russell. On the rusty Russell with the CPI print, you can actually see that we actually set a new overnight high here. We did not do that on the other two index products, but we did set a slightly new overnight high and a nice reclaim specifically of this 2850s. Reason 2850s is important. If we go back out to the four hour chart to kick us off here is it represented this flush point right over here, right? This was one day. And then we sort of like really washed it out in this pullback. And then when we reclaimed it, that was the gap and go to the top side. So the fact that we're back above that after the CPI print does strike me as being somewhat more constructive. It's also the low of the inside day from Monday, right? Right around in here. So as long as the market could stay above that, I think we're doing a little bit better. And then this on small caps is your upside trade. Very simple, right? Right over that 2880s. Yesterday, I think we had 2875, but bumped it up by a couple of points just based on the way that the value area high was there. You take it down to the 15 minute chart. You can see this, right? See how right there, you get a little bit more of a previous day high, overnight low, overnight high. And this little inflection point, if you're on like a five minute chart, you saw this as a counter trend into that level and then the flush, right? So that's the reason that's the logic for the update. Once again, for this morning's pathing on the Russell, I'd be more inclined to say this is just bullish consolidation being above that level here and then looking for continuation up and out towards those highs. If we do something that looks like this, not as interested in here and a sharper washout towards the 50, look below and fail previous days low. That looks a little bit better for the long argument. All right. That is the rut. Got to hold on to previous days low. If you break previous days low, that's a problem for the rusty Russell. Honestly, over here on the four hour chart, you did, you know, you're still in an uptrend and that's based on the logic that this is a soft higher low, SHL, as we say, that's an H. And this is your last firm higher low, right? So you did not take out that previous firm higher low, which means that as of right now, you're still technically in a four hour uptrend, which the other two index products cannot say. NASDAQ and S&P a little bit weaker, right? Let's jump from the RTY futures over to the IWM. Let's make sure we can get the job done with 913 on the clock. We will, of course, get through it all as we always do. IWM, once again, key higher low hold here. Why? Well, look at this. Low, straight up rally, no hourly downtrend. Hourly downtrend starts. This is just the higher low in the four hour and daily trend count for IWM. As of right now, look at the open. Once again, there's your key reclaim. That's your Monday low. So as long as we stay over 283.50s, you're looking for this, right? There's your bullish consolidation. You know, can we reclaim the bottom of the range? Can we rotate back to the top? If you kind of run into struggle here and roll over, okay, problems for a lower high, I would mark that as being a threat. Excuse me, when and if we get something that does that under 283.50s. Like when you refail this level, okay, problems, game over, right? That's your IWM. Let's go on over to NVIDIA. Let's see what's going on in these core list of company names. Not really the best open. Honestly, an open up here would have been a much more compelling look. Quick opening drive, wash out the weak hands, and then kind of do something like this for inverted head and shoulders would be interesting. Not the case. I think opening with some patience right at the 50 SMA. As much as I want it to be interesting, I'm not going to force it. Jumping on over to Apple. I really like the idea that this is a previous left side peak retest here, but Apple has just been absolutely sloshed by the market. Is it ready for a counter trend? Look below and fail could get interesting to set that up. If you're trying to long Apple off this low counter trend off of the previous daily high, right? Basically, we're looking at looking at this previous resistance to act as new support over rising 50 SMA. Look below and fail of that level. Let's not get a weekly. Let's go back to the hourly. That gets interesting on Apple. Look below and fail previous days low. Does it set up counter trend? Can we do something that looks like this? Certainly respect the opportunity for a lower high considering the damage that's been done, but too far, too fast counter trend. That's possible. Apple moves like a slug. So just manage your expectations on that one. Microsoft really heavy, ugly, ugly open here. This thing sucks as much as like you want Microsoft hyperscalers to really look great here. I mean, what are we doing? Just brutal chart. So I would think maybe gap fill reversal, lower high in here and continuation of the downtrend. If this really rallies 412 rejections, do something like that. Not really a top priority for me today, but the chart looks heavy. The chart looks weak. Don't really like Microsoft down here. Amazon, another one that's slowly testing my patience a little bit. Ideally, the 50 SMA hold in there would have been your daily higher low. Not getting that through it. And a pretty brutal day yesterday opening. Not the best. This is a fake wick on thinkorswim. The true low is actually this low in here. It's 240 40s, I believe. So ignore that first hourly lower wick. The true low of that bar is somewhere in here. I believe. Yeah, the true low of that bar should be no deeper than this area right there. So ignore the lower wick. But for now, opening in range. Scrunch that up. In range, just kind of like right here. I don't see anything to do with it, if I'm being honest. I don't like Amazon. I don't like Microsoft. Maybe there's an Apple rubber band off the previous left side. Maybe Nvidia has something for us. It's going over to Google. This is probably my top watch of the day. I think Google is offering insane relative strength. Friday, it didn't budge. Monday, it didn't budge. And then yesterday, as it washed out, went right to the 50. Hardly made a new low underneath these left side lows of the balance. And for now, just like this is, I think, pretty straightforward. Very easy spot to manage risk against. And it is displaying some degree of relative strength. They've already obviously gotten their offering sort of out of the way and made that announcement. So that's not coming down the pipeline. The one that's left to go is probably Amazon. Let's go on over to Broadcom. Chart's been really wide and loose the entire way. This price action sucked. If you caught the breakout, congrats. Pre-earnings. But now the chart, I think, is, I don't want to say dead, but nothing for me to really do here. Daily chart looks atrocious. You got a hammer. But look at the week open. You're going to be opening here. I just don't know that this is a top priority to be getting involved in. Metaverse, let's go back down to hourly charts. This one looks heavy, just like Microsoft. Terrible look here and a bear flag. And I just think you're going to close the gap. I think you're going to keep working lower. You could go gap fill reversal and, you know, maybe set up another lower high in range. But this is not overextended. This did not get too nutty on yesterday's session. It was pretty tame. So this is just a classic bear flag. You're not extended. I think this could have an opportunity to go lower. Let's go on over to Tesla. 917 on the clock. We're getting the job done. Tesla. I mean, just beautiful rejection of the daily 200 yesterday. I regret not taking that trade. And, you know, that was just the trade. That was literally the trade of the day. So anyhow, it's playing by the rules. It's rejecting where it needs to reject. I think you need a new setup now. So it needs a new setup on Tesla. Maybe bear flag down here under the 50 SMA. But I don't know if I want to be short smack on the lows of this. If we just want to consider this entire box of balance range. So we'll see. We'll see where it goes. I personally am looking for a little something new out of Tesla. Like if it goes counter trend, retraces some thin structure, whatever through here, lower high, that could be an interesting short. We'll see. JP Morgan. No fancy fills overnight for anybody. Financial is doing A-OK yesterday. No problems on that. Sideways. This is good. This will act as an anchor for the S&P. Not worried. Or I should say less worried, rather. This MU is interesting. I think it's a great hold right off the 20 SMA. Sharp, sharp reclaim of the Friday low from last week. You know, is it the greatest opening just kind of loosely in here? Not really. It leaves a bit to be desired in terms of like price action tightening up and offering a better entry point. But, you know, is there something to do on MU if it looks like that? Maybe. If it rejects in here, does it need more sideways? And then we have an inside bar and we're up and out of it, you know, tomorrow or something, maybe. So it's an interesting watch. I like the relative strength off of the daily 20 SMA. We jump on over to AMD. You can see not quite as strong, breaking the 20, breaking Friday's low, making a new low. Oops, the whole nine yards here. So to me, tough look here. You could probably have Friday's low on there if you want an additional level. But for me, this is patience through there. Maybe a 450 washout long back to the highs or maybe a 485 fade if we come into the overhead supply there. Those two ideas on AMD. Intel. Intel is one of my favorite names from a higher timeframe perspective. If you haven't looked at this thing on a weekly, I think you're flying blind. You got to look at Intel on a weekly. You got to acknowledge the high type flag. You got to acknowledge the Livermore number. You got to acknowledge just everything going on for it at 100. This is a top priority for me to continue to watch, probably get involved in on the swing front alongside the day trade front. It's just, it's too good of a chart to pass up on. Look at the weekly. I'll just show it to you. Look at this. Are you kidding me? Put that in a textbook and study it in 10 years from now when it breaks out and goes for another 100% run. That's at least what I'd like to see. So we'll see. Anyways, Intel looks really great across the timeframes. My daily chart, nice hammer. Break of previous day highs, reclaim of the 20 SMA, going down to a hourly chart, right? You could see in here, we never really took out Friday's low. Consolidation near this range low, near Friday's high. You know, maybe it's a look below and fail, something that looks like that. So really interested in Intel. There's a lot of other stuff out there that is moving. The universalists just keep growing as we get these pullbacks. So make sure you're focused. Make sure you're dialed in. Make sure you know what we're looking at. And with that, I'm probably going to wind it down here at about 921. I mean, we got the job done. We got through everything we needed to get through. Anybody who's like, you know, doubtful, we always get the job done. There's not been a single instance where we have not gotten the job done. So that's that. Let me paste this over to the desk and make note of this. Good. Let me just say my morning thoughts. All right. That's where that needs to be. All right. What else can we say before we just kind of wind it down? We got CPI. The markets are wide and volatile. If we look at the VIX, all right, volatility is creeping up. In the pre-market back above this 2050. Just keep an eye on that for your volatility complex. What else could we maybe say? Oracle reports earnings after the close today. I love the Oracle daily chart. I just, there's no way to really participate in it ahead of earnings. I think you're just going to struggle to gain any cushion or enough cushion, I should say, to combat the measured move here. You know, you're looking at like 20, let's just round up and call it 25 bucks for the sake of round numbers. You're talking about 225 on a gap up or you're talking about 175 on a gap down. So, I mean, I don't know about you, but I don't think that this is going to move 25 points away from the offered entry point, in which case, worst case scenario, the measured move gap down gives you break even. So, really tough to want to get involved in that. Although the daily chart looks just, you know, I'm, I think this is stellar right near the moving average stack. Nice uptrend. One of the stronger names in the IGV software group. So, that's that. Okay. 9.22 and 59 seconds on the clock. Have yourself a green and fantastic trading session. Remember to not do anything too, too crazy out there. Keep your risk in check. The market's getting volatile. It's getting wide and loose, which is usually a recipe for, you know, paper cuts to turn into like gashes and wounds. So, just be very careful if you are trying new longs. Understand your ins and outs, your risk management tolerance, your systems. Everything should be in place that you need to be in place. With that said, have yourself a green and fantastic trading session. Big shout out to the usual suspects. Zenzen Supernova in the chat. Jared Nichols. Mark Richards. We've got seven sisters. Space Ginicorn. Forrest Gump Trades. Juan is here. Robert Ruloff. Big spark. We'll see you in the next meeting. RA Zero Sky. What's going on? First market day in a two-year period. You get to sleep in. Sky. Shout out Sky. Who else is here? Overthinking Koala. The whole gang. Shout out Lawrence earlier with the 10 gifted memberships as well. Have a solid and awesome session. Stay green out there. And I will see you as always in the next one.