[LIVE] Pre-Market Prep – Market GAP UP... But Memory Stocks GAP DOWN

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time. [00:01:00] Speaker 1: I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time. [00:02:00] Speaker ?: I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time. [00:03:30] Speaker 2: We'll get the show on the road at about 8.05. We'll give them some time to find their way in here. I know it's a brand new start of a brand new trading month. So, it's the first opening print of the monthly candle, the weekly candle, the daily candle. Do we need to keep going? The hourly candle, 15-minute candle, 30-minute candle, 7.5-minute candle. They'll open up and the opening print will be the opening print, which is the opening print this morning. I've got to ditch this additional layer. It's just a little bit too toasty here this morning. We could take that off now that the morning crisp air has faded, but a little less intense. Anyways, let's go to the tippity-top of the chat. Let's see who's here with us on a lovely Monday morning, and then we will get started here at the tippity-top. It's Mr. G. Who's got that Monday mojo? Don't forget to sign in at the like desk if you haven't done so already for complimentary watermelon this morning on Mr. G. Good morning. The Market Architects, what's happening? Own Worst Enemy 73, Entertain Me, Jarrett Mattson, Teacher Russell C. Black, The Fade Doctor, ET, is here. Marcus G., That Fam, Michael Herman. We've got Dark Comet, Lipid JG, Gene Jensen, is here. Paul M., President Djibouti, of course, holding down the fort. Patrick B., got Oscar Weiss for victory, of course. Gut Fuel Trader, PJ is in the penthouse. INF, the base homie from way up north. Julian S., Cipriano, is here. We have ARC, Renee F., Chris D., Phillip B., Pendemonium. We have Adrian, Jim Lewis, trading today for tomorrow. Duna B., Allie Trader, Anthony Wu, Teacher Russell with the breakfast buffet, peanuts, popcorn, salt, butter, avocado, croissants, you name it, you got it. Delightful Sunny, J. Cool Trader. We have Fuzz, Atlanta Zone. Good morning. Elizabeth Santana. I identify as a banker. Hopefully, you got my note back over the weekend. I can double check my inbox and apply some roles this morning. Nigel Bites the Dip. Isaac is here. Bill Lakeside. Jim Brogan. Dangerous Function 54. The 19th Amendment guaranteed women the right to vote. 19 is a prime number, and it's the number you're like today. Good morning. Matt and all of the traders up here in the office from Orlando, still stateside. We got Ben Eats Rice, Robert Rudoloff. Eat and Repeat, the most classic name there ever was. Marview, Boren, Wuffet, Duna B. We have Inner Wave Flow, Overthinking Koala, Charlie J., Miss Legato. Cahia is in the house. Lazo and Jeffrey Green. Sin Zapatos. Texas Badger. Too Hotty Scotty. What's happening? [00:06:14] Speaker 3: Who else? Gucci, Sasha. Rod is here. [00:06:20] Speaker 2: Armstrong Capital. Ganucci, Seven Sisters. Mad Trade King. Bad Wolf. There we go. Steezy Divergence. Carl Ware. Scott Clackle, aka Scotty Maserati, is in the house. Renegade 600. How are we doing on time? 8.03 and 40 seconds. Plenty of time. Plenty, plenty, plenty of time. Swing long, Sean. Good morning, Eric. We have Dexter Trades Future. Starman 77, the first of the 77s. Arc Nemesis, 7-7-7-0. We've got Federico in the house. Desert Dean. Nate Dalton, the old gray wolf. Learning new things. Not family. Chris K. Good morning. Mag Z 77. Time sellers again. Banana Autonomous. The Great Canadian Goose. John Calhoun. And just like that, we get bumped to the bottom of the chat. Let me scroll up, see if we can pick up where we left off. I have no doubt that we can. There we go. Looking good. Found it. Stain. What's going on to Mr. Stain? Good to see you. It's been a little while, huh? Hopefully you're doing well, my friend. Who else is here? Johnny Quidd. Tamika. Miko. Hang Flyin'. Zoltan J. Kevin the Uncanny One. A.K.A. Kevin Head and Shoulders. There he is. XOXOXO Gaming. I'm back. Sorry about the absence. That's three X's, three O's. Don't you dare forget it. 8.04 in 45 seconds. Lorenzo. Ian Senior. As well as Mighty Mouse. Good morning. Cooked Intentionally. Security Financial. American Psycho. There he is. Tippity Top of the Morning to you. Registered Watermelon and Copywritten. Happy National Watermelon Day. Almost like you and Mr. G are on the same wave this morning. F.J. [00:08:05] Speaker 3: We've got Jeremy Store. William. Who else? Arboranger. Algo Linguist. Purity Financial. Good morning. Space Ginicorn. [00:08:20] Speaker 2: Half of you. Rock Builds. Jim Robitaille is here. Orlando Olivia. Marcus G. Good morning. All right. Welcome one. Welcome all. You guys know the deal. It is 8.05 in 40 seconds. So they've trickled on into the office. Now it's time to get this show on the road. See if we can't get the job done here through the economic calendar. So this week, this morning, things do start to get a little bit busy. Final manufacturing PMI from the good folks over at S&P Global. We'll pay attention to that. 9.45. A little bit of volatility. 10 o'clock time frame. We have ISM manufacturing PMIs. And that, of course, is slightly more important. Usually you get a little bit more of a reaction from the market on the ISM print, not the final from S&P Global. So paying attention to 9.45, a little preview. But really, it's like 10 o'clock is when the rubber hits the road. We will watch out for that. Construction spending at 10 o'clock as well. I mean, interesting, but not going to move the needle. It's all about the 10 o'clock number for manufacturing PMI. Moving forward, we have JOLTS this week because it is the first trading week of August, which means it's labor report week. Get JOLTS job openings. That's tomorrow morning at the 10 o'clock time frame. Another one where we'll watch out for a little blip of volatility around 10 o'clock, about 30 minutes into the session. That's pretty much it for the Tuesday session. 8.15 on Wednesday morning. Your ADP non-farm employment change. It's your little preview, but of course, we should be getting on, I was going to say Thursday, but it's Friday. Friday. So a little preview here, ADP non-farm, and we'll see where we land the preview for Friday. Really, we're just looking for a directional vector. Good, bad, basically. Final services PMI, and then more importantly, ISM services PMI. I have no idea why Forex Factory tends to think that the manufacturing print is more important than the services print. I would think, if anything, you'd go the other way around, but what do I know? Anyways, services PMI, we are a service-based economy, so do with that what you will. But this is going to be very important on Wednesday morning. Definitely paying attention to that. Services can't really afford to undergo big inflationary pressures there. Otherwise, we run into some problems as it relates to the Fed, 10-year, 30-year, longer-term interest rates, right? Fed credibility, all those things start to really play a key questionable role, as in if we get services PMI that comes in hot on Wednesday morning. That's 10 o'clock. We'll deal with it when it comes. Thursday, jobless claims, the usual stuff, nothing too crazy on Thursday. And then Friday, there it is, the full Monty, the whole kit and caboodle. It's coming to us, Friday morning, 8.30, full labor report. Average hourly earnings, non-farm payroll, as well as the unemployment rate. Watch out for it all. We'll have coffee and donuts up here on Friday, on me, of course, for our watch party for the labor report. All right? We'll see how it comes in. The general premise here is that a stronger-than-expected labor report is probably going to be received as bearish for the market. Because, of course, that means that the Fed will have sort of cover to either remain higher for longer or actually go through with the rate hike that some of them are talking about, right? Three members dissented last meeting, that was last Wednesday, for the preference of a hike, right? That is the economic calendar headed into this week. What's in front of us right here, right now? It's this morning, 9.45 and the 10 o'clock time frame. That's what we should be aware of for today, okay? Move forward into the Fed watch tool. Speaking of the Fed, there you can see it. It's your 62.7% chance of a hike in the next meeting, which, by the way, is not in August. It's in September. September 16th, we are looking for a potential hike from the Fed, okay? We'll see if Mr. Kevin Warsh wants to do what the market says he should do or if he kind of stays pat and says, nah, I'm going to do my own thing. We'll see also if they end up reducing the number of meetings that they ultimately hold. He said he wanted to go from the 10 meetings that they currently have to, or is it 10 or is it 8? Remember? Anyway, either the 10 or 8 they currently have to half as much or more than, less than half as much or quarterly. I'm going to go to quarterly. Interesting. All right, I'm taking a sip of the coffee while it's still nice and warm. Let's jump into the earnings calendar. Speaking of the things that we should be paying attention to this week, I would say after the close today, it's all eyes on Palantir, noting that the software stocks this morning are absolutely raging, right? Software, big gap up over there versus some of the other names really not getting the job done, right? Palantir gapping up here with software complex and prove it that it's a meaningful move. They can stick earnings today after the close. So watching that very closely, PLTR, that is a big name to watch. What else is going on after the close? Sterling infrastructure? Yeah. BWXT? Meh, maybe. Definitely on semiconductors. Semiconductors, broadly speaking, this morning are not doing so well. Before the open on Tuesday, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Mickey D's, Wayfair. I'd say Hut 8 as a neocloud hyperscaler wannabe, you know, wag me stock. Crypto miner turned data center. We'll watch and pay attention to that. Then, of course, after the close, it is all about AMD, all about SpaceX. I would say honorable mention to Arista, Sterilabs, as well as that was it, actually. Maybe Zeta. Zeta's really been a retail favorite over the last couple of weeks. Put a box back around Miss Palantir and move forward. So put a honorable mention here, honorable mention here, honorable mention here. Okay, that looks good in terms of what we've got on Tuesday. Wednesday before the open. Yes, honorable mentions to Lilly. Probably a better look at Shopify, just because the chart there is technically interesting. Riot as a counterpart. Not counterpart, as in they're related. They're related, but they're not business related. Riot at 8. Crypto miner turned data center, right? Circle, interesting for this whole stable coin narrative. The stock's really looking pretty beat up, if you ask me. Unity, we'll see. And then after the close, how could we not, right? How could we not watch the big memory names? Sandesk, of course, the market leader. We've got Western Digital, App Lovin', honorable mention there. Elf Beauty, Lux Maxxers. Where are the Lux Maxxers at? We got a Lux Maxxing ETF at this point. Elf, Ulta Beauty, some other things I'm sure. Probably find some peptide stocks to throw in there. All sorts of stuff. The Lux Maxx ETF. Insane. What else? This Mercado Libre stock. Absolutely interesting considering its daily structure. We'll see if M-E-L-I wants to do anything. What else? Axon, Trump Tazers. Red Wire. Meh. Maybe. Some quantum, some Q posting, maybe. Datadog. More and more important there. That chart has actually looked like a leader recently, so we'll see if it wants to follow through on earnings. Honorable mention, honorable mention, honorable mention. I really want to see what happens here. Genomics look great, but we got to get through a couple of key earnings for the genomics names. Spaghetti, honorable mention. Trade Desk, garbage, but honorable mention. InnoData. Turned into garbage, but honorable mention. You know, a lot of honorable mentions down here through the bottom. Oclo for nuclear. Nuclear. Nuclear. There's just some energy stuff going on here, it looks like. I would mostly focus on what we've covered just there. All right. AMD SpaceX, Tuesday after the close. Probably going to be the most compelling ones. All right. Right here. This Tuesday after the close. Probably the most interesting. Maybe we live stream SpaceX just because it's the first time they've ever reported earnings. Do we do that? I don't know. I haven't figured it out yet. Maybe, maybe not. Another sip of this coffee while it's still nice and warm this morning. All right. Moving along. Let's jump into the top line figures courtesy of CNBC. We've got 813 on the clock. We're doing fine on time, but let's make sure we can get the job done. Here we go. Dow futures up 102 basis points. S&P futures up 48 basis points. Look at these NASDAQ futures lagging down two basis points. What does this look like to you? About as safe as it gets. A little less safe because it's got more tech exposure, but still safe. And then there you go. Your high beta in terms of index baskets, right? Dow, S&P, NAS, kind of in order of risk appetite. And there you have it. Your flight to safety, even at the index level. Dow futures really picking up some bids there. Up 1.01% through the pre-market. Interesting stuff. Dinosaurs and dynamites. I like that. Mad trade king. Dinosaurs and dynamites. That gets the job done for me. We've got the oil futures over here. Down a whopping 657 basis points. 79.11 on the barrel price. We get another, another taco. So hopefully you like your tacos, your burritos con queso. The whole thing. Hopefully you like it over the weekend because that's just the playbook. And it's nothing new. It's what we've been doing for the last 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 months. We're going to strike. Oh, geez. I'm such a nice guy. And everybody said, please don't do it. Please don't do it. And so I said, ah, you know, maybe I won't do it. Anybody surprised? Probably not. U.S. 10-year is backing off, but I would say not at the same magnitude as oil. Oil has certainly come in here substantially, but look at what the 10-year is doing. The 10-year is like, yeah, I'm going to come in a little bit, but just a little bit. Not really a whole lot. So if this makes sense, just bear with me. Crude oil is lower than 10-year is lower on their respective places, if you will, in the chart. They don't really, they're not trading in sync, if you will, against each other. That's the key takeaway, it's that the 10-year is still producing a little bit of a threat to the broader marketplace. [00:18:27] Speaker 3: All right. [00:18:30] Speaker 2: Let's move forward and see what else is going on here in the big headlines this morning. 8.15 on the clock. What the market is saying about the U.S. intervention to prop up the yen. Yen rates, or I shouldn't say yen rates, my God. Japanese rates on the short end of their curve are at the highest level they've been in years, decades, perhaps. Coordinated yen intervention. That's fine. We knew this was going to happen. Everybody sort of was like telegraphing it before it even happened. Fine. Dow futures are up 500 points. After the attack is called off, nobody's shocked. Oil prices fall more than 5% as the tensions ebb and flow on diplomatic efforts. Nobody's shocked. Zooming into the little headlines over here, making a big. Biggest movers pre-market. Alibaba's ripping on the sort of premise that their new Quen model is doing quite well. Crystal Meyer's squib on a takeover with AstraZeneca. eBay with, of course, Mr. GameStop over there. Petey Cohen says to buy a stablecoin issuer's circle. Morgan Stanley thinks it's time to sell. So some push and pull there. I would have to agree with Morgan Stanley. The chart looks terrible. The chart looks absolutely terrible on that circle. Iran talks to resume on Monday after calling off planned strikes. Nobody's shocked. AstraZeneca slides after reports of VMY merger, right? What else? House offices are spending more on chat GPT than any other tool. Makes sense. It was the first one. It was popularized. It's like the household name. What else? Stock-specific stuff? Stock-specific stuff. Stock-specific stuff. What else do we have? Flights are expensive and will stay that way. Fuel prices. Condos with mortgages. Spider-Man. WestJet flight attendants. End the strike. GLP-1s. You can get them at Walmart, Costco, and Amazon. Okay. Interesting. OpenAI's Hugging Face hack confirmed months of AI cyber warnings. Pandora's box is open. So your cyber name is PanW. PanW, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and Zscaler is trying to come up from the bottom. Those names are absolutely still in play on the top side with all this cyber stuff. Fable 5 breaking out of its sandbox. OpenAI. Just a ton of stuff going on. Cyberfront. Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its most powerful AI model. The US-China competition heats up. That's that Quen model we were just talking about. There you have it. Corning. Struggling. Truist says it's time to buy the dip. They need an exit. What else? Framer. Uh-oh. Paid data service goes live from Truth Social. I think it was like, from what I saw, it's literally 100 grand a month for the feed. So I guess hedge funds and whatever will be up. Even just hedge funds. But anybody trading serious capital, family offices, the whole nine yards. Anybody who's got some sort of algorithmic strat that can take advantage of that, I'm sure will be doing so. The thing to me is like, if everybody's going to start paying for it, it's just going to be reflected in the chart sooner. And we'll just have to look at it and say like, okay, here we go. I guess something's happening. And then we'll get the headline. All of us normal folks, you know, a minute later, 60 seconds later, whatever the delay is. BDS rates. Anthropic. OpenAI among firms facing new scrutiny under EU AI Act. Enforcement powers. Okay, EU doing what they do best, which who knows, maybe in hindsight will look to be the right thing after all is said and done with AI. Anyway, take a sip of this coffee. 8.19 on the clock through the headlines this morning. I feel like it's time to just get the job done over on the charts and see what we're working with. All right, sip has been taken, but I didn't even take it at the right time. That's on me. Okay, here we go. Let's transition over to the ES Futures four-hour timescale. Grab yourself a sip of tea, coffee, water, whatever it is that you've got at the desk this morning. And we'll see you over there in just a moment. Here we go. All right, just like that, we're home. Sip and home, as they say. Sip and home. Let's make sure we can pull this up. Good. Take a closer look. Okay, ES Futures four-hour timescale. This is where we want to be. I'd rather be nowhere else on a Monday morning at roughly 820. So, what do we have going on here? What is the market doing? Where are we in the trend count? I mean, a violent reversal to end the week, right? As we described, excuse me, and told the story in the weekend video. This is Leo getting absolutely steamrolled. This is Citadel stepping in. And then on Friday, I really, you know, I got to give the buyers some credit. There was a very impressive close at the index level on Friday. Very, very impressive close. We sort of get that morning kick in the teeth. The buyers step right back in and bid it straight back up into the highs. So, to me, pretty impressive. I don't want to just, like, start flipping and changing bias to max long right here at the tippity top of the move. It would be best to do this. Now we can work against a higher low. So, that's the premise of what we're really looking for on the four-hour chart, right? We've got ourselves this balance range. We basically went from, and, you know, I know it's not literally as simple as just a balance range because, of course, in here we were trying to suggest some semblance of higher lows. Then we went equal low. Then we went lower low, lower low. Okay, we're breaking the range, right? It's not literally just a box. There's a lot more nuance in the box. But let's just zoom out for a second and paint with broad brush strokes. Brush strokes. Ooh, that's a tongue twister if you don't pay attention. Let's paint with broad brush strokes as my good friend, you know, I'll leave his name out of it, but you know who I'm talking about. If we're painting with those, we just have a range low support maybe headed back up to range high. Do we come in here and reject and pull back into the midpoint? Maybe. And if we can set a higher low against the midpoint of the range, that would also be constructive to start the day. Right? something in here okay then there that's something in this neighborhood right here and we can all see why previous support acted as resistance acted as support acted as resistance acted as support acted as support acted as support acted as resistance acted as resistance i mean this is not a magical level the level that we're all really really really really really really really really really really familiar with right and if you're not familiar with it then don't make me do what we had to do last week it's just painful all right so uh let's go ahead and take a closer look at the hourly chart now that we understand what's going on here right we're kind of you know in the grand scheme of things we're just bouncing off of support low and if we could get midpoint support here at the range that would be bullish in terms of continuing looking for a four hour higher low okay so we've gone from and you know this is as we always say trend traders like to trade a smooth trend the hardest part is the trend change right we've gone basically from a short-term four-hour downtrend highs lower highs lower highs lower highs lows lower lows lower lows lower lows lower lows we've gone from a short-term four-hour downtrend to immediately breaking it without much argument right just vertical into the uh into the end of last week via some overnight gaps right so let's go ahead and take this from a four-hour chart to an hourly chart we could start looking at that vertical action i was just describing and here you have it right this is oh my goodness leo gets liquidated post-fed there is citadel stepping up and buying the book here is the overnight gap and there's the rally higher back only just to like the previous day's high mind you then here's the gap up that sort of fades and then ramps into the close so in terms of cleanliness of reversal not very clean not very clean there are no patterns anymore in the market there are only v-shape reversals and they happen overnight that's it that is it so i turn the mic up i turn the mic up a little bit more people are asking in the chat um that's about as loud as that one goes let me see if i could pull it up on this front i could do this and this that maybe makes it a little bit louder how's that just a touch louder maybe one more there we go maybe that's just a little bit better i'm not making it much louder than that otherwise i will be in the red i think all right one more that might be a little bit better but um okay that's better they say all right turn it up uh let's talk about this hourly trend right because the hourly trend count is going to help us hourly trend count is going to help us we've got a low this is like a short-term higher low as is this this is a high this is an equal high this is of course higher highs coming into this morning session so the hourly trend is up the hourly trend is up and therefore if the market pulls back from this highest high right keep in mind this is the highest high in the one hour trend count that means that if we pull back we can afford to set a higher low and the question that we need to sort of figure out today and just broadly throughout the week is do we want to be buying hourly higher lows should we be bullish this market or is this just going to come crumbling down is this just all big fugazi fugazi and we're going to go to zero that's the that's the big idea okay so let's take a sip of coffee let's talk about this hourly higher low it's the same thing as the four hour midpoint higher low but let's do this fantastic and let's talk about it we're opening on a gap up this morning which means that gap rules will be in play if we can rally and reject and pull back a little bit this is where the hourly higher low must support pretty straightforward i would think one two three three prior equal highs even more than that if you look left one two three four right so does this level in the short term act as support in this level everybody should know it i mean my goodness we've gone through the exercise so many times 74 90 about 80 right there is the key level it is unchanged from you know the same same level we've been talking about for weeks now at this point so 74 90 74 80 must hold spot for buyers do we get hourly higher lows notice also that the overnight low is near there right if the overnight low is going to be supportive that's friday's after hours session there it's really not anything post sunday's open but if friday's after hours pullback low can act supportive then that's a great spot for buyers to try to step up looks good right looks pretty darn good to me so it's the same level we've been describing that's not what i wanted i wanted a rectangle here we go 74 90 74 80 must watch must hold area of support let's uh talk about the upside if the market does rally here if the market can continue it's this double top high set that we need to pay attention to as potential resistance that would be the target for today's session if we rally like that right if the market goes brigade bolt over the overnight high that is the target right there what's that level you might ask that's 76 25 right there 76 25 boom got it done and dusted let's move from the hourly chart to the 15 minute chart let's see what's going on from a 15 minute perspective which of course is where we start to get into the three and a half questions there's your v-shape reversal on the friday session here's your v-shape reversal on the thursday session once again no such thing as patterns just v-shape reversals on all time friends okay 15 minute chart 15 minute chart what's going on up here there we go looks like we made just a slightly new overnight high there we go uh let's take a peek at the three and a half questions let's get the job done we start by saying number one where are we opening relative to the previous day's range previous day's low is down here previous day's high is up here you could certainly see that we are opening over the entirety of the previous day's range which does mean that we have a gap up in play which technically invites us to gap rules we'll take a look through the gap rules in just a moment number 1.5 where are we opening relative to the value area from the prior day's session so here's value area low there's value area high stevie ray vaughan and double trouble at the previous day's high as we can see here so what does that mean well certainly starts to suggest that there's not much room for bullish buffer right it's not like we have uh value lower in the session and it's acting as an anchor it's actually quite high in the session and therefore has topple ability that's right that is your vocab word of the day topple ability it means it can be toppled topple ability ease of toppling to be toppled um it just means if we come in here any late longs to the party from up here are going to start feeling like oh this is uncomfortable right god forbid you come into this level you gotta hold it that's part of the reason why it's such key support but if you do that good night nice knowing you right you're underneath the value area and you've been toppled all right [00:31:45] Speaker 3: take that off there we go number 1.5 no bullish buffer no bullish buffer [00:31:56] Speaker 2: okay moving along to question number two what do we have as it relates to the overnight range here's the overnight high here is the overnight low you can see that we are certainly pressed into the upper third of the overnight range which of course does give us decent risk reward for a pullback if we think the market's going to come in well we basically just want to see a rejection of the overnight high something that does this and then we're here and then figuring it out from there all right that is what we've got on that let's continue forward from the second question into the third question what do we see as it relates to the overnight inventory to do that extrapolate the previous day settlement how much time was spent below how much time was spent above you could certainly see that way more time was spent above basically all of it since the sunday night gap up right sunday night gap up was the key so on number three let's go ahead and say a hundred percent right there's no there's no arguing it's a hundred percent net long it's very simple nl that long the inventory correction if anything should be in the downward direction we've got gap rules we've got no bullish buffer we've got risk reward favorable for a fade and we're 100 net long i don't know about you but it sounds like there's some ability to first look for a short this morning why else might we look for a short this morning first well semiconductors are gapping down right yes software is gapping up yes the mag 7 anchors are gapping up but the semiconductor names are gapping down if those go gap and go to the downside oil boy should the es come back into the previous day's range and start to play confluence or catch up if you will uh to the nq right nq is not gapping up i'm going to clear up the three and a half questions take a screenshot if you'd really like the three and a half questions it's not the simplified path we'll get to that in a second but here we go poof here's the nq just for comparison take a little zoom here i don't know about you but that's pretty clearly inside the prior day's range no gap over here on the nq so for the es if we're going to play quote unquote catch up and get back into range and be neutral because of the semiconductor drag that would make sense okay so let's get into the simplified pathing here and start to figure out what we should be looking for on this morning session let's get the job done let me just double check some stuff over here [00:34:29] Speaker 3: where do i want to go i want to go here [00:34:34] Speaker 2: all right just making sure just making sure okay es futures pathing ideas gap rules light the way look above and fail overnight high under the opening print comes in test previous day high gap fill reversal goes back up to the opening print we consolidate here over the overnight high we know that we have a next target above at 76 25 76 25 gwagged feet would look like this go with all gaps that don't fill immediately if we fail back down into range okay this is the big battleground major major [00:35:08] Speaker 3: battleground let's say four hour higher low question mark four hour and one hour higher low [00:35:23] Speaker 2: question mark um if not yikes ouch not good try again next year maybe not next year but if this market comes screaming in and let's just say cannot resolve this as an inverted head and shoulders if we break straight through that i'm just going to draw a really intense down arrow that looks like that wow right wow [00:35:47] Speaker 3: it's broken [00:35:55] Speaker 2: and when i say it's i mean the broad marketplace overall right terrible absolutely terrible if we were to get a lower high underneath that oh boy oh boy i think we're in store for a lot more pain and the market not really resolving as quickly as everybody hopes that it will don't get me wrong i want to see this follow-through day potential for a follow-through day like everybody else does but that's uh that's going to be a concern if we were to snap the overnight low top of the prior gap level and of course just the big major spot from the four hour perspective i'm going to throw the desk in sit mode i've been in stand mode all morning so let's do this and uh let that simmer for just a second as we go down with the desk down with the down with the sickness how about that all right desk is now in sit mode it's been it's been fun standing this morning but it's time to give the feet a break the back really a break my god anybody ever uh stand at the desk for too long and suddenly your back's like all right you got to take it easy you gotta take it easy um so i know we didn't walk through it explicitly but these paths up here are basically the gap rules right if value cannot get over let's just quickly go through them test and fail the overnight high trap buyers who are long late to the party from the overnight high that makes decent sense right we know that that's based on the premise of the gap rules we always talk about lower high under the opening print causes screen to go from green to red and then we target the previous day's high that closes the gap that repairs the thin structure right when we get to the previous day's high it's the ideal place for a higher low to form so if buyers can step up here that is ideally where they should and then we get a higher low and we continue back to the opening print number four we go with all gaps that don't fill immediately because what that tells us is that sellers are not willing to repair the thin structure we want to go with if we get this higher low here as a matter of fact let's just come in there with the green crayon and start to mark [00:37:54] Speaker 3: where we should be thinking this this this this this goes here let's break out the red crayon this goes [00:38:05] Speaker 2: here and this goes here that's it let's hit it with the cyan crayon now final colored crayon to break out of course this down below is let's start from the very bottom 74 20s [00:38:25] Speaker 3: great um this spot as we know 74 [00:38:30] Speaker 2: 90 slash 80 and that's your key spot for the day that's your must hold so let's put a box around that very important this stevie ray vaughn double trouble even triple threat if you will up against the 75 35s wow windy out there today 75 35 right there and then your overnight high zone is going to be critical up there at 75 68 oops not 76 75 68 beyond that we know that way up there is 76 25 as your next target off the screen to the top side okay that's it i would keep your pathing sort of simple around these lines here today that's the way i would treat this something of that nature okay and for what it's worth yeah sure if this double tops at the overnight high and this comes back in and we do this you know i would just take this same exact setup here higher low ability and then put it you know right after that as well right so that's not worth i'm not going to redraw it in again the main premise is that if we come into this spot here we are looking for support especially if we're pulling back from a higher high right that's it as long as we're pulling back from a higher high looking for support around 74 90 to 74 74 74 80. [00:39:56] Speaker 3: all right take a screenshot of this one [00:40:04] Speaker 2: and then we will uh pop that over here i don't know if it's going to disappear when i click on the other window nope so far so good [00:40:12] Speaker 3: are so good pop this here okay okay and uh we continue along tip of this i'm actually curious what the wind speed is out there right now it's very very it's like very windy let's see what we got see if i can figure out what the gusts are uh gusts i don't care about that i care about the wind speed [00:41:16] Speaker 2: wind speed i don't want meters per second meters per second [00:41:21] Speaker 3: come on now give me knots not meters per second gusts of uh gusts of 29 yeah it's gusting 29 that's pretty good not insane but that's up there white caps out there on the harbor all right are we good here on these es futures the pathing ideas we understand what's up and down what's a meter this is america am i on a boat um that'd be cool though live stream brought to you by the boat that'd be pretty cool [00:42:32] Speaker 2: okay we've let this simmer for long enough let's uh move into the next thing which of course is going to be the spiders cash etf it is 8 39 on the clock which means it is time get to get the job done sipping and poofing we're ready we've gone scribble aka pathing we've scribbled we've snagged we've sent we've snapped we're going to take a sip and then we're going to sayonara sip has been taken sayonara it's off the screen jump on over the spiders cash etf same concepts different numbers same concepts different numbers okay uh we are opening way up here which gives us that same gap so main premise look above and fail overnight high pull back close the gap something that looks like this the buyers want to see and then we're higher right we come back down into the prior days range this is all right i don't really even mind this your key hold spot which is the same thing we just talked about on the es futures is right here 7 42 this is the level i was ranting and raving about in the saturday weekend video if you didn't watch that it was a pretty good one with the whole leo thing going on in the intro there you know if you didn't understand that basically citadel bought all the distressed assets as a block and probably turned around and flipped them the very next day if not into friday for a handsome handsome risk-adjusted return so with that understanding you know it's not really restored confidence in high beta tech it's more like someone was willing to make a pretty killer trade and we're still up in the air about where we go from here so that's that those are the simple pathing ideas here for the spiders cash um what else you could say gwagged fee if you're oops uh this gwagged fee if you're here looking to the top end of this range that's the equivalent of your 26 sorry 26 it's the equivalent of your 76 25 i should say these two double tops back over here 76 25 that's the equivalent of that level on the spy that's 754 75 all right all right what else uh can we say here where do real big problems emerge right i don't this is not like not today [00:44:57] Speaker 3: but problematic that's what 7 42 okay i'd kind of go with something like that [00:45:18] Speaker 2: all right we're letting this simmer for just a second probably gonna sip uh switch excuse me switch from coffee to water for this one keep the uh keep the palette clean and then uh continue along ready three two one poof let's go on let's jump on over the nasty nasdaq let's see what's going on with the nq futures and where we're at from a four-hour perspective what do we ultimately have going on over here um all right nq four-hour chart to start it's still bearish right i don't know how you can look at this and say oh wow it's bullish we got to be doing xyz it's up it's down like it's not no it's not right it is not any of that stuff it is simply a um it's simply a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows it is not nearly as constructive as the s p 500 the es futures look way better uh could this be a capitulatory low near the daily 200 sma it's possible maybe maybe but um for now yeah it's just it's not it it's not it you're in a downtrend here for sure you're breaking from this head and shoulders you're still underneath the neckline uh if anything right i look at the four-hour chart and i say to myself this is a spot for a lower high it's not a spot for reversal right you do something that looks like this no break of that trend you do something that looks like that we're there right come on sellers show me what you're made of show me what you're made of previous support previous support acted as resistance here is it going to act as resistance again so far survey says yes in the after hour session the nasdaq is much weaker much much weaker okay let's clear this up let's take a peek at the hourly chart let's get a little bit more granular one layer deeper peel back another layer of the onion so to speak uh there you go level is defined as clear as day clear as day there at the 775 right 26 sorry 28 28 775 is the spot to beat right you can't beat it well you know what they say if you can't beat them join them uh and that of course is the sellers join those sellers see if you can't go with if you cannot take out 28 775 the hourly trend in the short term though is doing what is the hourly trend constructive back to the top side i have to say yes as crazy as that sounds as much as i want to maintain that four hour bearish note and say oh you know four hour can still set some major lower highs over here and keep the pressure on to the downside as much as that remains true the hourly chart also has its own truths right there are different truths on different time frames if this is a low this is undeniably a higher low this is also a higher low as of friday's pullback notice also that friday's pullback goes straight into pretty well defined level that is that 28 080 spot 28 080 right that is your key support if the hourly chart pulls into it and holds all right is this you know now we have and it sucks because it's very frustrating it's very annoying new traders are going to be like oh this guy doesn't know it was up down in it i knew be energy when you have competition of the time frames it's oftentimes the hardest to trade right because your hourly charts telling you that you're trying to find a renewed uptrend here you want to remain optimistic about this ai stuff and say oh you know you know optimists will win in the end and ai is going to change the world and you know so on and so forth but you also have to respect that the four hour trend is down so this hourly higher low although it could be there right the dominant wins would say if the four hour has just set a lower high here the four hour should at least be trying to make an equal low right on the four hour that should be the objective that's the target and therefore this may actually turn into more of one of these and how do i want to do that i want to do it like this you come in here the hourly tries to satisfy its balance but you go lower high now there we go left head right neckline good night right so that's something that's absolutely a threat in the back pocket i don't know if it's going to play that way obviously the optimists of the world would say no it's going to be here and then here and that's the argument this is this is what makes a market this is why it's you know this is why you can't just wake up press a couple buttons and uh make money every day right because you have situations like this where one time frame is very obvious a potential lower high to remain in a downtrend another time frame is suggesting okay potential higher low to drift it into an uptrend and then where do we go from there you'll have your answer as to the strength or you'll have your answer once you figure out once we can judge the strength of the bounce if we get there off of that 28080 right alternatively if we never make it here if we do not test that level if we just consolidate here and go up and out then we're obviously having an argument with this there is no four hour lower high but an x that's off the table and instead the four hour trend starts to neutralize right if we could brigade both above that level so that's the conflict here that's that's the reality that's the conflict between the four hour time scale and the one hour time scale they are not trading in parity right now right i've got a gnarly uh a gnarly mosquito bite right on my ankle i have to do something about that later anyway i don't know what i'll be doing about it but um anyway that's the uh that's the nq from an hourly perspective that's the general thing that i'm wrestling with in my head as it comes to today's session because what else is going on out there smh as we said semiconductors they're absolutely gapping down but then you turn around you look at the igv which is software that is absolutely gapping up right you look at your d-ram oops ram there we go d-ram absolutely gapping down and then you go look at your mags right absolutely gapping up so a lot of push pull this this rotation within the technology basket is so so intense and it's been it's been so rip your face off the last month and a half or two right oh incredible mosquitoes do love ankles that's for sure the good guy with the two in the chat says isn't there a bigger inverse head and shoulders um on the nq you [00:52:21] Speaker 3: mean like this [00:52:27] Speaker 2: if that's what you're referring to it is possible it's possible but it would need to be uh it would need to be an hourly higher low here re-attempt and then goes in which case low higher low right and then we're higher and maybe we say larger inverted head and shoulders it's possible it's possible i wouldn't get this is this is always the bottom line when it comes to patterns don't get too hung up on like oh is it a perfect inverted head and shoulders or not or is it a perfect double top or not just generally try to remember that patterns tell us where we're at in a trend count patterns tell us where we're at in a tc trend count in this case you know if if this ends up being an inverted head and shoulders all that's telling us is that we have a higher low right and thus it probably makes a little bit more sense to say okay bullish right higher lows are bullish higher lows do not fit into the vocabulary of a downtrend right so yes it is a good it's a good point it's a good reminder um all right nq hourly chart done let's go over to the uh 15 minute chart let's see what we can see from this perspective on the 15 minute time scale what do we see as it relates to the three and a half questions headed into today's session it's much different than the s p 500 i must admit which is not necessarily a good thing number one where are we opening relative to the prior days range here is the prior days a range we're opening right in the middle smack in the middle which means we're neutral on number one number 1.5 where are we opening as it relates to the value area value areas here lower in the session versus the s p which was higher in the session right and therefore we are opening right at the cusp of value area higher i kind of have to remain neutral to slightly bullish here if we could have sustained just a little bit further above i would have said bullish buffer right as we do but unfortunately that's just not even so i want it to be there we go it's not in play right how is there going to be bullish buffer if we're opening right at it not it right so no bullish buffer there's also no gap no gap rules not a six that's gr no gap rules number two where are we opening as it relates to the overnight range here's the overnight high here is the overnight low we're opening smack in the middle smack in the middle neutral i mean it's it we're technically not opening in the beef of value oh big noise uh we're not opening smack in the middle of value but i'm i'm going with the p for patience pedestal this morning i don't know how we couldn't you know acknowledge that p for patience pedestal is getting fired up this morning just you guys wait for friday friday rules because friday rules because friday rules oh they're going to hit different this friday i'll tell you that fee for patience goes up here on the pedestal even though we're not opening in value um this is this is very very neutral of an open a lot of push-pull we've talked about what's happening in the semiconductors the DRAM memory space which is a subset of semiconductors of course we've talked about the counter argument which is software talked about the counter argument which is hyperscalers mag 7 etf right uh-oh mosquitoes attack imbalanced targets check my diet oh okay i'll have to i'll double check i've been pretty i've been eating like a a very stable diet it's nothing fancy it's just um ground turkey rice green beans and corn every day every single day pretty balanced i would think you get uh some nice vegetables in there a simple grain that's non gluten and a protein i don't know maybe i could look into uh peanut butter and oatmeal that's a pretty tame breakfast don't really eat much else besides that cdp says have i addressed leopold's fund liquidation and ripple effects on markets uh yes in the saturday video [00:56:51] Speaker 3: it's not even gym food it's just like it's just i don't [00:56:58] Speaker 2: you know how sometimes you're like i just eat because i need to eat that's that's to me it i just i i eat because it's eat i need to eat right if i want to experience good food tasting good you know well prepared i'm gonna go have a professional make it anyway and so that means a restaurant which is uh i haven't been doing a lot of restaurants recently so i think that i think the diet's balanced but uh maybe i'm wrong maybe i'm wrong don't get me wrong i do like firing up you know cooking a nice steak on a grill something about that [00:57:45] Speaker 3: very primal eating is a chore for me it is it really is [00:57:55] Speaker 2: all right um number three where are we with the overnight inventory we've got sidetracked here with this mosquito um we are certainly opening with a little bit more of a balanced overnight inventory right this was like net short but then we're gap up net long and this corrects the inventory rather than the es which is just sideways keeping us net long i might still say that there is some net long action here but probably not a lot it's it's probably closer like maybe 57 maybe 57 nl net long so what does it mean the three and a half questions have been asked and answered for today on the nq futures exercising some degree of patience this morning probably makes sense as we're just going sideways here inside of a range and we know that there's a ton of push pull remember i'll just put it up in here as a grid semiconductors memory gapping down software software as well as mag 7 wow smsm huh are gapping up okay so push pull within the technology cohort a lot of push pull it's it's all over the place down let's put up over here all right all over the place with those four a lot of tension it's gonna be tough to resolve that okay and honestly semiconductors broadly speaking are gapping down but your top dog nvidia nvidia nvidia honestly is not gapping down in a major way it's more like your marvels of the world amd is gapping down intel's gapping down dell is gapping down a lot of those hardware names are gapping down all right let's clear it up three two one poof and uh let's see what's going on with the pathing here for the nq futures 8 56 on the clock we're almost there as it relates to the general structure that we're in remember that this is a major four hour resistance level and this is a major four hour support level down here right so with that understanding you're opening right in the middle if the market rallies i would expect the fade first off of this level mean reversion if the market drops i would expect the fade first mean reversion off of this level that's the sort of base case here to start if the market tries to go lower fails and reclaims this high which you can see it is clear as day right look at this afternoon high resistance from friday if the market reclaims that then okay maybe there's some sort of rotation back up to here and we'll figure it out if the market can rip above it's all about closing this gap and then of course this becomes the main junction box right we'll put a j in here any electricians i'm probably saying it wrong but a junction box right there are junction box right there we come out of that to the top side bulls on parade if we come out of that to the downside you're still dealing with a lower high right what else uh can and will be said here this uh would be ultimately bearish if we do this and rotate back down here good night nice knowing you if this reclaims that is bullish okay so i know these paths are like oh it could go up it could go down yes welcome to markets can go up it can go down um the only thing we can guarantee is that it should be going to the right about it nonetheless uh a couple of things and levels to be paying attention to this is 28 oops if we can grab the right tool that would be really awesome 28 and then we go seven seven five great bottom of the gap in here is at wow 28 all the eights 28 8 8 8 8 [01:01:47] Speaker 3: your thing and this is 29 1 if i'm not mistaken [01:01:55] Speaker 2: that looks good there this midpoint level which is the value area high is 450 28 450 this level down here i would sort of disregard the overnight low disregard value area low i would really just be focused on previous days low that's in there at the 28 0 8 0 [01:02:21] Speaker 3: okay that is that what would the next downside level be [01:02:26] Speaker 2: under 0 8 0 27 6 75 27 27 27 6 7 5 would be the next level to the downside and i'm not even going to write lower odds of that today if i had to rank order these paths i would say mean reversion makes sense so you know that's going to be this one this one yeah just really really open-minded to the nq i i don't think it's worth having an overly biased um viewpoint as to what the russell can do today this is for our major [01:03:07] Speaker 3: resistance and this is your one hour potential higher low hold okay okay this would be four hour [01:03:28] Speaker 2: remains down here this is one hour trend uh this is one hour flips to up [01:03:38] Speaker 3: with four hour trend change that's this one right here okay uh let me go ahead and drop in some green and red crayons [01:04:01] Speaker 2: that way we can figure out our ups and downs and then we'll move forward we'll jump on into the queues cash etf we'll see what we could see from a qqq perspective [01:04:14] Speaker 3: and we'll go from there [01:04:20] Speaker 2: all right screenshot we've scribbled enough scribbling time to snap the screenshot okay that's been snapped time to send the screenshot [01:04:35] Speaker 3: sent uh time to sip the coffee what is going on why does this keep happening what are you doing what are you doing out there my god easy does it and uh then we'll keep moving forward here b dog have a good one good to see you as always oh nice big stretch here [01:05:15] Speaker 2: ah you gotta love it buy or sell from yangi well uh i'll let you make that determination but those are the key levels where you should be looking for those buys and sells kobe knows everything says what about the quantum stocks well according to your username you know everything and you don't need my opinion so i will refrain from commenting all right three two one poof it's gone let's jump on over to the qqq cash etf 902 on the clock let's get the job done over here and see what's going on same concepts different numbers same concepts different numbers um we have ourselves an open right right back inside the priorities range right here so is that going to give us a ton of edge probably not once again if we rally okay we kind of come in here and mean revert if we fade we come in here this is the midpoint of that range i could probably put in another dotted line here you know something through there like what we had on the nq that's fine then we mean revert off of that whatever the main point today for me on the q's cash etf my main objective here because i'm going to use this less as the trading instrument more as just like the idea of what the broad marketplace is doing if we could support over like if we just do this and stay in play for higher great buyers are trying to do something if we pull back okay i'm on edge this looks like a lower high to me but if we could support here that's you know now we have a big problem there right if this rejects okay downtrend good night nice knowing you this reclaims lows higher lows we've got something to work against right so that's the that's the moral of the story on the q's very very push pull i've said it until i'm blue in the face this morning but the main thing you need to understand is the semiconductors i guess they have tickers for a reason it's easy easier shorthand there's your semiconductors and there's your d ram i know i've said it you know before i'm gonna say it again that important uh they're not gapping up they're gapping down uh those are in a basket and then you have igv and mags and those of course are gapping up right so we've got to pay attention to the push pull that exists within the wow within the technology cohort cohort maybe that's the word of the day cohort okay simplified pathing if i had to just draw in a few lines here on the queues this oops this like that sure here okay bullish this that fades big junction box here if we pop out of it fine if we come back underneath it yikes uh if this does this ouch right that's the main premise in the follow through there you're just building a lower high okay that's it those are the simplified paths for this morning session that's what i'd be focused on something of this nature right in here all right poof it's gone rut check michael cobble shout out to michael cobble let's go on over to the four hour chart for our chart to start and let's take a peek over here we've got ourselves a really controlled downtrend we've been talking about how it doesn't really make a ton of sense to do a lot of technical analysis on this until this market makes a larger move be it up or down doesn't matter just pick a direction then we'll apply some analysis but as this is just grinding and drifting around in the range kind of kind of refrain from big calls uh you know you break the trend channel high maybe we're higher over this spot right here you can kind of see the shelf of resistance that we've been experiencing right if we can clear that that's that 29.92 spot we can clear that that's feeling a little bit more bullish if we're just chopping around in here again we'll just let it be and if we take out make a new swing low problems i would honestly say it's not even about a new swing low it's just back underneath these lows boom boom boom three or four equal lows in there that's going to be at that 29.33 spot just say 35 for round number's sake you break back underneath that yikes no good no good so your very quick rut check very quick rut check is right there you've got boom you've got boom maybe we're bullish up here and we're probably getting right back to being bearish or at least a headwind to the market right under here [01:09:57] Speaker 3: those are the two key levels i would focus on okay [01:10:01] Speaker 2: that is it for the rut check very quick everybody uh who went to the water cooler please come on back appreciate that uh we'll go iwm then rip through the core list of companies and then keep moving all right iwm what do we have with the iwm small caps let's go ahead and make ourselves this uh this high up here is your gap so you know you could do this and we remain somewhat more bullish if we fall back down underneath that 292 50 a bit more neutral and then underneath the lows you know in here okay good luck nice knowing you try to keep it simple try to just use these two key levels right here 292 50 290 50 one more time 292 50 2 90 50 that's it all right russell done let's jump on over to the nasdaq the nasdaq the nvidia chart nivda what's going on with nivda nvidia kind of a nice look in terms of trying to get out of this inverted head and shoulders we didn't really build much of a right shoulder we were just like up up and away so my preference is that maybe this comes in retest the neckline which is exactly what it's doing here in the pre-market up against 198 15s if we could pull back gently enough and then reclaim 200 let's see if we can go out to the moving average stack here nice reclaim of the 20 and a test of the 50 at 205 75 would be the first target on the upside or the main target on the upside where i would then start to reconsider what the chart's trying to do uh if we break underneath 198 15 it's not game over or you're going to need to find a little bit more of a firm footing here i would think uh over this 195 50 right probably can't afford a lower low underneath that that's nvidia really keeping it simple watching for a potential brigade bull in there over 200 on a continued hold pre-market low at 198 15 next up apple apple apple apple apple apple uh what do we have with apple apple apple uh i would prefer another day sideways if i'm being honest this end of day ramp yeah don't love that i don't just want to continue to try to buy that strength i'd like to see this that's my preference and then we're here um one day sideways just chill out for a day and then remount retake the daily uh 50 and potentially make it move from there so i'll watch for that i don't know if we're going to get it but apple pause day and then tuesday a follow through to the top side that would be the bullish configuration in my opinion retaking the 50. if we rally reject come back in is it a short reason i don't think it's a short is because if i look at apple's daily chart here i don't think you want to be short in the hole after this gap down into this level that's that's my concern about trying shorts in here could you day trade short it on a failure of the overnight high back underneath and into the previous day's range probably but i i just don't like this premise of apple gets this big major gap down in the context of an uptrend into previous resistance now acting support i just don't love trying to get it short there so we'll see uh moving forward to microsoft let's see what's going on with softy on the hourly chart nice gap up happening here through the pre uh what i'm looking for on this is a gap fade off of the other gap right this is this is a gap into a gap so we've got gap ception over here 478 is the level of watch if we can fade off of that i'm looking for a pullback into the previous day's high this prior high back here then we'll reevaluate from there microsoft could easily afford a higher low this is like very extended right huge gap higher gap and go mind you on earnings session then follow up on friday to gap up again i mean you're asking for a lot if you're expecting microsoft to continue to move higher here so i think the odds favor a little bit more of a fadable opportunity against this prior yellow line right here 478s 478s can we get a fade going on off of that level for lower going over to this amazon chart what we have on nancy it's very similar to microsoft notice that you're gapping into the all-time high i think microsoft's better because it's already extended for a day two whereas amazon is just gapping into its day two upside so i would prefer to see this look above and fail the overnight or sorry not the overnight but the all-time high i guess it would be the overnight high as well look above and fail pull back reset come into the prior day's high and then we'll reevaluate when and if we get there that would be the look for amazon like let's chill out let's just take a little breather here at the previous all-time high test if it does continue over the all-time high if we're here not going to fight it but probably not chasing new longs i'll just think to myself you know amazon is quite literally my largest long-term holding individual single stock name so great right if it continues don't need to day trade it i'll just understand that in the background it's working for me right that's that no need to chase this through and into blue sky territories in my opinion let's go on over to this googler see what's going on with the googly um what do we have over here pretty extended rally off the lows from earnings straight into the daily 50 we'd love to see a failure of the 50 and acceptance back inside of prior days range for a short right so google not i don't think google is going to go to zero that's not the point of the short the point of the short is that you need to pull back you need to check in here and longs you got it from the earnings gap low you know they should be taking some profit perhaps up against the daily 50 any check back in underneath i think there's a shortable opportunity get a little bit of thin structure retracement going on go to the hourly chart right you can kind of see it's vertical on friday so show me this and uh maybe it's just here and then we're figuring it out in the future if you lose that yikes all the way back down to here is fine right and then from there technically you have a daily higher low be daily higher low right uh-oh the gusts are starting and they're bringing some rain what are the gusts saying now let's give this a refresh still gusting only 20 i shouldn't say only but it's gusting up to 29 knots precipitation about 0.6 millimeters again who the heck's using millimeters it's about zero inches last time i checked but the gusts are what matter most [01:16:24] Speaker 3: okay moving forward get on the bus gus that's right stick to the plan stan no need to be coy roy and just listen to me you know that one everybody knows that one come on now [01:16:49] Speaker 2: who's got it anybody have it in the chat i know beth jazos has it who's who's got it anybody else somebody uh google we're all set here right we talk about this 50 sma fade let's move on over to broadcom 914 on the clock we're doing fine on time uh we're in the midpoint of the broadcom range single stock futures still i don't think doing hardly any volume yeah these things kind of flopped here too bad it's really too bad wish that they were doing a little bit more volume it looks like there was a whopping 65 contracts on friday going through on savgo single stock future broadcom but so far pretty much impossible to get involved in uh it looks like the screen maybe just locked up because now i'm back on the broadcom chart you guys are not seeing this yet so bear with me for just a second and i don't know why it is that software does this every now and then but uh tis what it is all right there we go back up broadcom should be on the screen no need to talk about it just wanted to make sure it was uh back to being live on the screen okay metaverse gapping up here this is interesting this is the weakest you know dare we even call it a hyperscaler it sounds like they want to become a hyperscaler but boy oh boy have they just failed to present a meaningful and cogent plan from the management team there specifically on the earnings call but this is uh like do we do we just fade this into oblivion do we just look for lower underneath 560 maybe just have a massive lower high fail to break out something in here so i'd be watching your overnight high paired with 560 if you can't take out the overnight high and if you're underneath 560 i would start thinking about shorts back down towards 540 25 which is a major low from back over here if we do accept in the gap and we're just kind of sideways up here over 560 next big uh trade excuse me next big opportunity i would think is the top side gap fill reversal at 580 580 for a lower high [01:18:47] Speaker 3: that is that [01:18:54] Speaker 2: antin says the metered system is for science the usa is one of very few countries in the world that decided to be anti-science and use yards and feet and inches good luck converting them to meters okay thanks for that was blissfully unaware had no idea um where do knots fall [01:19:17] Speaker 3: do you use knots in uh in the good old eu [01:19:25] Speaker 2: or is it uh would you use kilometers per hour what would you use not meters per second meters per seconds insane anybody using meters per second for wind speed kind of insane mu let's keep moving here uh micron micron is not it um just gapping down here terrible you know it's it's a tale as old as time knockout earnings top the stock can't beat expectations or it beats expectations but it can't beat markets expectations going forward from there all the good news is priced in the stock is way too crowded it pulls back you're losing the 50 you lost the 20. i you know i don't know it's it i will continue to just maintain a bearish stance on mu i don't know how we could do anything other than that they're ranging here to trade for sure by all means but for now it's rally rejections of a prior day low rip this thing lower into about 747 50 that'd be the watch for me on mu rally rejections of prior day low pullbacks just like that here comes the rain how many millimeters per second is the rain falling that's actually a calculation you could probably do right what's gravity is it 9.8 or something like that normal force i don't remember trying to recall back to my science days anyway mu mission accomplished tesla tesla show me a nice high or low over 310 invite me in over 310 see if we can't get some counter trend going in the upward direction that's up something over 310 show me the love on tesla uh so 310 hold that then breaks the overnight high that's interesting a 310 look below and fail is interesting you can long it right there if you can find the opportunity or just brigade bolt over prior day high i don't love that i mean it's fine but i would prefer that it's 310 first and then goes over the overnight high jp morgan nice financial strength for the s p 500 keeps that rotation afloat we all know this stuff very well uh there's really no reason to um there's no reason to fight the s p 500 if you're looking for shorts i think it's pretty obvious where you need to go for shorts right it's that high beta tech stuff that's really really gotten its teeth kicked in can we check out sandisk to be church to be sure of course give me a second here 919 on the clock let's hit amd intel then we'll go sandisk intel speaking of weakness in the semiconductor names ouch gapping down over here uh gapping down it's gonna put into play yeah it's like it's kind of there i'm just going to throw this on as a reminder level it's less less interested in interfacing or trading off of it i should say but i just want to have it on there as a reminder that seven uh sorry 465.75 is the high of day from what would have been tuesday from last week it's gapping down so if we can hold over that close the gap to the previous day low and reject there that makes good sense to me 476 is the main spot to be looking for a short up against this prior structure that's what i'm looking for on amd if it wants to impress everybody and if it wants to go from red to green if it wants to go like this great maybe there's a long opportunity there and we just treat this as an entire daily high or low so it doesn't matter how you slice it doesn't matter what you want to do here whether it's long or short you probably just want to watch for a 476 reaction or 76 reaction intel gapping down on intel i would be more inclined to go red to green on amd i would be less inclined to do this on intel intel is really problematic underneath 100 as we know and so the main idea here is any rallies that reject around 92 i would be much more focused on a short there and less interested in the red to green reclaim right something like that uh all right let's go sandisk they report earnings this week so please just be aware of that um on sandisk you're also gapping down and the key spot to watch for a lower high is anywhere underneath about 1250 anything under 1250 and we have a shortable lower high essentially fade lower um i would just stick with i would stick with amd i'd probably stick with mu uh for the red to green moves and then i would stick with intel and sandisk for the shorts and and be less focused on red to greens right so if you want bullish longs it's mu and amd red to green if it's you want shorts you want sandisk lower highs gap fill reversals alongside intel gap fill reversals and lower highs there put spacex on the core list already mr g with the 199 in the chat yeah spacex is also getting hammered here to the downside uh we'll see how they kind of do on their first earnings report which is going to be tuesday after the close maybe we'll put a poll out on x uh so if you're not following us on x make sure to do that uh over here we'll put a poll out do you guys want to live stream spacex earnings or is that just a waste of time is nobody interested in spacex i think it's interesting just because it's a first but i don't really know if it's going to be all that uh all that helpful for the market basically right we'll take a poll over on x for now i'm seeing a lot of yeses in the chat here on the good old youtubes anyways that's what i've got for you in today's episode and installation of the pre-market prep hopefully you guys have a fantastic and green trading day if we just go to this es5 uh sorry 15 minute chart unchanged on the es getting closer to that overnight high and the nq unchanged over here just at the value area high so the pathing remains as is headed into today's session have yourself a green and fantastic trading day big shout out to the usual suspects you guys know who you are with that being said have yourself a green trading session and i will see you in the next one