Face the Nation: Salvanto, Turner, Georgieva

[0:04] welcome back to face the nation americans are growing increasingly concerned about the war [0:09] with iran and its impact our latest cbs news poll finds as the approval of donald trump's handling [0:15] of the conflict has dropped to 36 percent back home the president's ratings on handling of [0:21] inflation are at the lowest level of his second term with only 31 approving for more we're joined [0:27] by our executive director of elections and surveys anthony salvato good to have you here anthony [0:33] morning margaret so what exactly are americans telling you well when i just ask how this war is [0:38] making you feel the top answers people give are worried and stressed let's unpack that why when [0:44] they look overseas they see a lot of important goals for the u.s big bipartisan majorities think [0:51] it is important to you can go down the list stop iran's nuclear program make sure the iranian people [0:58] are safe and free change the regime change the leadership in iran and most important open the [1:05] strait of khormuz and what you see is interesting is when you juxtapose that and ask them well have [1:11] those things been done you see a dramatically different answer because very few people think [1:17] that they have what that collectively tells you is this looks to people like unfinished business [1:23] there are goals okay the war began not everybody liked it but now they're saying make sure it pays [1:29] off in ways that come back to the u.s and let me pick up on that word pays off for a second because [1:36] when they talk about opening the strait so really talking about gas prices right and what we've seen [1:40] is people here telling us those higher gas prices are a financial hardship difficult to pay [1:47] and so that is having an impact both on their views of the economy more generally as well as their [1:53] pocketbooks and you mentioned those ratings at the top look sort of like first rule of politics gas [1:58] prices and prices go up and approval ratings start to go down well the president always uses social media [2:05] to make you know big statements of intent um a few days ago he posted a particularly incendiary one [2:13] it said quote a whole civilization will die tonight never to be brought back again i don't want that to [2:19] happen that statement drew rebukes from even some of the president's closest supporters as as well as the [2:25] pope you gauged reaction to that rhetoric what did the american public think so by the time we got to [2:32] talking to them people had heard and seen that post and we showed it to them the general view was they [2:39] disliked it there were some who said okay a little bit more alike and those were folks in the mega base [2:47] not all but relatively more but it's also a window into how people process some of these statements [2:53] and we've been looking at this for 10 years that are if you will shattering norms or changing the way [2:59] things have been done in the past and that is they thought it was at least as much a negotiating tactic [3:06] as it was an intention so how does all of that impact how the public views the president's leadership [3:12] so one consistent thing through this war is that most people have said they don't feel the [3:16] administration has clearly explained the goals i followed up on that this week and most folks who [3:22] feel that way think it's that the goals have kept changing that they've heard not that they haven't [3:27] articulated anything so there's that wide array and they're not clear which one exactly that relates to [3:34] most people saying they don't feel donald trump has a clear plan for this conflict those two things [3:40] together speak to that collective uncertainty about it if you will and when there's uncertainty you [3:47] inevitably start to see ratings overall and the feeling that the war isn't going well yet going down [3:53] anthony salvato interesting stuff thank you thanks and we'll be right back with a lot more face the nation [3:59] stay with us we're back now with republican congressman mike turner thank you for coming back to town [4:05] early to talk to us in person thank you um let's start on our our polling because you like many [4:11] people right now are running for re-election right uh you look at these this poll 64 of the american [4:16] people disapprove of the war 62 say the president has no clear plan there are these negative perceptions [4:22] the president's handling of the economy and inflation dayton isn't immune gas prices up a buck from where [4:28] they were same time last year how are you explaining to people in your district that this war is worth it [4:34] well first off no no conflict ever polls well i mean when there's a conflict occurring no one says [4:40] it's being handled well because you you have to to to go go through the conflict the president has [4:45] articulated i think very well um that that this is about ensuring that iran does not become a nuclear [4:51] state and uh no one is willing to trade lower gas prices for iran becoming a nuclear state and um when [5:02] vice president vance stood at the podium and said that the negotiations had broken off because iran [5:07] was not willing to declare that they would not become a nuclear state that should have set a chill [5:12] both through europe and around the world and i think you know for everyone because that truly is what [5:17] this is is about that that puts away what you know what senator warner was trying to dismissively say [5:24] that this was not an imminent threat and what everyone else has been saying in europe and around the world [5:28] the presence of the ambition but that that um that this is a a an immediate uh the iea grossi the [5:38] director had said they were weeks away from me having enough material to have he said there was no [5:43] evidence that they were pursuing he said they were they were weeks they were weeks away and and now you [5:48] have it no longer can people say that they did not they did not have the ambition here they are all the [5:52] way at the table they have been in this this massive conflict and they're unwilling to say they're not going to pursue [5:58] in our polling they're unwilling to pursue the weapon preventing that however the negotiation itself [6:04] is proof of the fact that militarily you cannot achieve destruction of nuclear ambition is it not [6:10] no it's not because they're still ongoing and that and the president has said this this this conflict [6:17] this this act the negotiations this is not this is this is not over and and as it's not over iran is [6:25] going to have to come to the realization as as our you know the jcpa the original um enrichment deal [6:32] that obama had negotiated where he said we're not going to allow them to have a nuclear weapon but [6:36] we're just going to watch and they didn't have a nuclear weapon and where we're going to watch [6:38] and they don't have a nuclear weapon and we're going to watch them enrich until they get close enough [6:42] and then we'll take military action ever europe everyone was a party to this deal this is not just [6:47] the united states this is not just a united states issue as we saw during this conflict where iran [6:55] in their missile technology set a missile all the way to diego garcia this was a wake-up call for [6:59] europe they now have missile technology that can reach europe right this is a regime a terrorist [7:04] regime that we cannot allow to have a nuclear weapon so you said the president has been very clear [7:08] here in his goals and intent art polling shows the american people aren't persuaded in the same way you [7:13] are let me run through some of the things he said on the hormuz straight at the outset of the war march [7:18] 3rd he said the navy would begin escorting tankers no matter what the u.s will ensure the free flow of [7:23] energy to the world march 9th he said he was still thinking about taking it over march 15th he said it [7:29] was someone else's problem our allies would take care of it maybe we shouldn't even be there we don't [7:33] need it we have a lot of oil six days later he threatened online the u.s would attack Iran's power [7:39] plants if it didn't open the street within 48 hours march 26 he went back to blaming [7:43] allies saying he's disappointed in nato and then he announced a two-week ceasefire saying [7:50] iran had agreed to open the street i'm not done because yesterday he said that centcom announced [7:57] they're sending two ships to set the conditions for clearing mines this morning he said the navy's [8:01] going to start blockading the street and interdict ships is that the final answer i mean can you see [8:08] here why the public doesn't think your adversary has has a clear strategy your adversary has a vote [8:14] in this too and they have a position at two which there were just negotiations just yesterday they [8:19] might they changed with just yesterday there were negotiations and and literally iran had an [8:26] opportunity just yesterday to say the world we're not going to pursue a nuclear weapon can you imagine [8:31] the largest exporter which is the thing that's causing your gas prices a terrorist regime to go [8:36] up having a nuclear weapon they have been enriching they have been enriching um uranium they've been [8:42] enriching um to the point where the iea they had the iea so they were weeks away from having enough to [8:48] have there has not been a single congressional hearing on this issue no one's disagreeing it's an [8:53] important one since this war hearings began you have been in session for 11 days congressman for [9:01] decades do you think this is adequate oversight there have been of this war decades of well actually [9:06] we have had classified briefings on this issue now this is this is an ongoing conflict there are going [9:13] to be continued briefings i think the administration certainly could and certainly the chairman of the [9:18] armed services committee has chastised the the department on needing to provide congress with [9:24] more information but we've had classified briefings but the issue that that's the crux of this that iran [9:30] cannot be permitted to have a nuclear weapon which is what the vice president stood before the world [9:35] and said that iran is unwilling to declare uh just yesterday which was the the breaking point of the [9:42] negotiations um has been the subject of of hearings do you know what the president means when he says that [9:48] the united states navy is now going to be blockading the strait of hormuz that we are trying to open [9:53] has that been briefed to congress i think well of course not because it was just it was just [9:57] announced yet as you were discussing this morning all along and this was part of what is what is [10:02] clear in the strategy as the president has said is the straits are not just the united states issue [10:07] it is also a europe issue it is a worldwide issue and iran should not be permitted iran should not be [10:13] permitted to control the straits and it's not just the united states issue did they mind and the i [10:18] and iran shouldn't be permitted to just decide who gets through and europe our nato allies um [10:25] others who have certainly an interest in in the straits should be coming to the table and it should [10:30] not just be a u.s issue um and uh the the president by saying we're not just gonna let them decide who [10:38] gets through is certainly calling um all of our allies and everyone to the table of this needs to be [10:43] addressed did they mind the strait of hormuz because in that tweet today the president also said [10:49] they might not have well i think because he said no i think you'll have to ask the president [10:54] but that's the point that congress has not been briefed on that you'll as a member i think you'll [11:00] have oversight and armed services do you feel like this has actually been adequately explained to you [11:05] because the american public does not the president just tweeted this this morning so you'll have to [11:10] ask the president we would love to ask the president or the secretary of state or the secretary of [11:16] defense um but members of congress from his party are the only ones sitting here today and we do [11:22] appreciate you answering questions on it thank you burgut all right we'll be right back on friday we spoke [11:29] with the managing director of the imf kristalina georgieva here in washington we began by asking her [11:36] about the war's impact on the global economy how do you calculate the economic shock from this mid-east war [11:44] we look at the size of the impact and the duration of impact and what i can tell you is that this [11:54] shock is large 13 of oil 20 of gas that would have flown in the world is now stuck for five weeks and [12:07] counting it is global everybody uses energy everybody feels the pinch of price is going up and it is [12:18] asymmetric it affects different countries differently if you are in the vicinities of the conflict [12:26] it's a big hit on you if you are an oil importer it is a big hit on you if you have no reserves to [12:35] protect yourself you're in a very tough situation it appears like asia bore a lot of the economic [12:43] impact here south korea they've got a big computer chip industry they have called on their citizens [12:49] to conserve energy india they're rationing energy the philippines had a national energy emergency the [12:56] australian gas stations are running out of fuel it seems like there's a large part of the planet [13:02] that's really in pain oh yes people are hurting they're hurting because of sheer lack of quantities [13:13] if you are in the philippines you're queuing the same way people were queuing here in the 70s [13:20] to fill your tank they are hurting because they may be in need of helium for semiconductors or for mris and [13:33] that comes out of qatar out of the that comes out of qatar and now it is cut to size they may be hurting [13:43] because of fertilizers now is the planting season if you are not getting fertilizers or [13:51] not getting them at a reasonable price we may see spike in food prices coming they're hurting [13:59] because of remittances just think how many people live in the gulf work in the gulf send money home [14:06] to places like india and bangladesh and this money is not coming they're hurting because of transportation [14:14] i'll tell you my heart goes for sri lanka a country that is coming out of a big shock [14:22] they were now affected because a third of flights to sri lanka go through the gulf now tourism is going [14:33] to be to be hammered so for many many reasons countries are affected and when you look at the [14:39] size of the impact it depends on how much your your reliance on imports is but it also depends on [14:49] what is your fiscal position do you have capacity to absorb the shocks right yes who has this capacity [14:56] poor vulnerable countries uh whether they are in asia or in sub-saharan africa [15:03] uh they're being uh hammered uh dramatically and when we discuss our response we will zero in on these [15:12] highly vulnerable uh countries here americans they're still spending they're still driving but [15:17] they have seen inflation go up prices at the gas pump right i mean the us is in the category of [15:24] countries that are somewhat less impacted because us is energy exporter but as i said everybody feels the [15:33] a pinch of price is going up why this is a negative supply shocks you have less energy but the demand is still [15:42] the same what happens prices go up and here in the united states people have not quite yet seen inflation [15:51] going down to target we were projecting this to happen by early 27 now that may be somewhat delayed and [16:01] what does it mean it means that people experience a tax on their uh income who is most affected of course [16:14] low-income part of the population well at at one point oil prices surged nearly 50 percent because of this war [16:22] in iran and you called it the largest disruption to global energy markets in modern history as [16:29] increases as you said to fertilizer to other prices that are going to push up food do you see this impact [16:35] stretching through 2026 even if we get a ceasefire that sticks so the impact is baked in because [16:45] already the tankers that should have arrived in asia have not arrived right so we already [16:52] have that impact but then on top of it we have the infrastructure impact 72 energy facilities have been hit [17:04] one-third of them severe damage you take the gas field in qatar it would take three to five years to reach its [17:15] full capacity that has significance and then we have other infrastructure impacts like [17:23] refineries if they don't receive oil on a regular schedule they have to shut down when they shut down to [17:33] restart that is with delay so yes we are going to see some a drag of this uh crisis over the year but [17:42] if we have peace of course conditions are likely to improve faster above all because confidence is going to [17:51] benefit from the knowledge that there is a resolution of the uh fighting uh before something that that is [18:00] very very important to recognize the world economy has been incredibly resilient we have been hit by one [18:06] shock and another and another we were actually projecting a small upgrade for growth in 2026 had it not [18:18] been for this war now we are going to have a a downgrade and the size of this downgrade will depend on [18:27] these two things duration and speed with which uh everything can come back to the same level of [18:36] production that we had before do you think that that global economists really overestimated the negative [18:44] impact of the trump tariffs ah very good question so the fund when the tariffs came was among the very [18:52] few institutions that were not not projecting recession we did project some slow down in growth [18:58] we did see some slow down should it be some somewhat disruptive uh we thought it would be somewhat [19:04] disruptive it was somewhat disruptive but then what happened was an adjustment adjustment in the united [19:10] states with agreements that have reduced the pressure that tariffs would put here and on the rest of the [19:19] world and we saw the rest of the world uh saying okay let's see how we can trade more with each other massive [19:27] increase in trade agreements more attention to regional trade if you look at the place like you're [19:34] saying turning away from the u.s well the u.s is saying we want to to have an economy that [19:40] is mostly based on investing at home having manufacturing at home that's a choice that the [19:47] country is making other countries are looking into their economic future small open economies they have [19:56] no choice they have to find ways to trade with each other because otherwise it would be very costly for [20:01] their people so the developments are relatively calming in a sense that we see trade [20:13] like water you put an obstacle it goes around it our full conversation can be seen on our youtube [20:21] channel website and our podcast we'll be right back now to some good news integrity splashdown the [20:29] artemis 2 mission has ended and it was a perfect splashdown for nasa and its crew with the capsule [20:35] integrity landing into the pacific ocean just off the coast of san diego friday evening nasa astronauts [20:42] reid wiseman victor glover christina coke and canadian jeremy hansen reflected on their extraordinary [20:48] mission saturday after being reunited with their families i would suggest to you that when you look [20:53] up here you're not looking at us we are a mirror reflecting you and if you like what you see then just [21:01] look a little deeper this is you the four spent just over nine days traveling to the far side of [21:08] the moon farther than any human had been the gratitude of seeing what we saw doing what we did and being [21:16] with who i was with uh it's too big to just be in one body i know i haven't learned everything [21:26] that this journey has yet to teach me but there's one new thing i know and that is planet earth you [21:37] are a crew it's a special thing to be a human and it's a special thing to be on planet earth that's [21:45] it for us today thank you all for watching until next week for face the nation i'm margaret brennan