Former DHS official says U.S. needs "a whole new model for counterterrorism"

[0:00] And we're joined now by a panel of experts. Johnny Gannon's former CIA operative with [0:04] extensive Iran experience. Sam Vinograd is a CBS News national security contributor [0:08] and was a top counterterrorism official under the Biden administration. And Kevin Book is an [0:12] energy policy expert and analyst. There is a lot for you to break down for me, but Johnny, [0:18] I want to start with you. You just came back from the UAE. They have taken a lot of incoming, [0:23] in particular, drones. More than anybody else. [0:25] And that seems to really have been underestimated by the United States. We've seen embassies, [0:31] CIA stations, U.S. posts hit. What was it like to be in the midst of that kind of warfare? [0:37] Well, look, there's a discipline to Abu Dhabi and Dubai right now. Commerce is continuing. [0:41] People are still going to work. You've probably seen video of Sheikh Mohammed, [0:45] the president of the UAE, in the mall, talking with civilians, greeting children. [0:51] But there is no doubt that people are beginning to feel these attacks. [0:54] I was on the ground. [0:55] I was on the ground in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai. After 26 years at CIA, it's my first war zone [1:00] observed from a luxury hotel. But I noticed that as the week went on, I was getting edgy. [1:06] There's the interceptors overhead. There's the loud booms, hotel windows shaking, [1:11] and alerts going off on your phone at all hours of the day and night. [1:16] So for the time being, it looks like the majority of expats are staying put. [1:20] Yeah. [1:20] But there is an exodus and there is impact on the economies there for our partners. [1:24] Paying for our partners. [1:26] Economically. And those partners, many of them oil producers, natural gas producers. [1:31] But those mines and those drones, they're cheap, but apparently they're effective at [1:35] shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, Kevin. Do you anticipate that oil prices are going [1:39] to be in this 100 range? I know Iran's saying $200 a barrel. [1:44] Well, look, if the Strait reopened today, it could still take weeks to bring production back on. [1:49] And damaged facilities, maybe months. So there's room for the price to rise as long as the Strait [1:54] stays closed. And then if we look at the strategy, we're going to see a lot of oil prices rise. [1:56] And we're going to see a lot of oil prices rise. And we're going to see a lot of oil prices rise. [1:57] The good news is that we've drawn $400 million barrels out of the oil savings account for the [2:03] industrialized world. The bad news is that we've drawn $400 million barrels out of the oil savings [2:08] account for the industrialized world. Long term, the White House says, oh, [2:11] we'll buy it back when it's cheaper. Well, that's the right way to do it. [2:14] You buy insurance when you don't need it. But right now we need it. [2:17] Sam, on the homeland, we had all these horrific incidents, including that 41-year-old man who [2:23] drove a car with explosives into Michigan's largest synagogue. [2:27] He was a naturalized U.S. citizen. Brothers were members of Hezbollah, [2:31] who had recently been killed in Lebanon along with their children. [2:36] We don't know yet if the attacker was involved with Hezbollah. But what do you understand about [2:41] the threat picture at home? Margaret, the diversity and volume of terrorist threats to this country [2:46] has never been higher. We have a broad range of threat actors in play, individuals inspired and [2:51] directed by countries like Iran, by foreign terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and ISIS, [2:55] and individuals motivated by domestic political grievances and racial animus and more. [3:01] At the same time, the Internet has been a force multiplier for terrorism. [3:05] Individuals have such easy access to content online that can radicalize them, [3:10] and importantly, such easy access to information on tactics, techniques, and targets, [3:16] which means that they can plot their attacks more quickly and make their attacks more effective. [3:21] What that really means is we need a whole new model for counterterrorism in this [3:25] country. We need a whole new model for counterterrorism in this country. [3:25] That includes law enforcement, but also includes members of the public. [3:30] We'll be listening if there are any answers at this worldwide threats briefing [3:33] later this week that Senator Warner will help oversee. [3:36] Johnny, on what is happening, we already had the Gaza situation having raised the global [3:46] threat picture. Now, around the world, Americans are being warned to be very careful. [3:53] How do you understand what Sam is talking about here at home? [3:56] I mean, what about Americans overseas? [3:59] Well, there's no doubt that the threats are increasing. I'm a little bit dubious that [4:03] the Iranian regime right now can reach out and touch us in the homeland. [4:09] Certainly, people who are still in the Gulf are vulnerable. And I think that on the back end of [4:14] this, the intelligence community and our federal law enforcement are going to have to be very [4:18] focused and well-resourced, given what we saw after the Soleimani strike, which was that the [4:23] Iranians engaged in lethal operations around the world. [4:27] Trying to kill American officials or former officials. So we can expect that, I think, [4:32] on the back end of this. [4:34] So, I mean, it's still making people really nervous. I mean, even just in New York, [4:41] you had the two Pennsylvanian men, two U.S. citizens who were arrested. [4:44] They were going to protest the anti-Muslim protest in New York, but they claimed that [4:51] they had ties to ISIS. It's not clearly directed by a state. It's not clearly directed by anyone. [4:58] Inspired. [4:59] How do you protect yourself? [5:02] Well, what we have to think about today is not just how to enhance physical security [5:06] protections at targets. Certainly, the government has a role to play in helping [5:09] synagogues, churches, mosques, schools, and others, and putting up security barriers, [5:14] training security officers, and those physical security enhancements. We also really have to [5:18] double down on information and intelligence sharing. That's a government function, but it [5:23] also has to include the public. And what I mean by that is the threat landscape is so dispersed. [5:28] There's so many tentacles. [5:29] There's so many tentacles of this. That when individuals and communities see an individual [5:33] that may be exhibiting signs of violence, they have to ask for help from law enforcement, [5:37] from a social worker, from a mental health worker, because the pathway and the path to [5:41] radicalization and mobilization is just so rapid. And I do think, Johnny, that the Iranian regime [5:46] has demonstrated an incredible capacity to be flexible and adaptive. They played a long game [5:52] here. They have invested in propaganda and tools in this country, as well as just hiring people to [5:58] do their dirty work for them. And I think that's a very important thing. And I think that's a very [5:59] important thing. And I think that's a very important thing. And I think that's a very their golden [6:02] key. They are working for them to such an extent that I am concerned that they have the intent and [6:05] the capability to, if not direct attacks here in the homeland, to inspire them. [6:09] I'm 100 percent on that, Sam. Well, I'm not a spokesman for the U.S. government. I would [6:14] add, though, that our intelligence community has been very focused on that in recent years, [6:19] as well as federal law enforcement. [6:22] So Kevin, we heard from one of the president's advisers , he's got a broad array of them, [6:28] David Sachs. [6:29] He's not a national security guy. He's a tech guy. But he had an opinion, and he went public with it. [6:29] As task force. [6:29] public with it. And he said, the U.S. is a much more powerful country than Iran, but they have [6:34] a dead man's switch over the economic fate of the Gulf states and beyond that. There seems to be [6:41] pressure to end this sooner rather than later. Is there a time frame on these projections you're [6:46] looking at in terms of the pain threshold for oil and gas for Americans? [6:52] Margaret, Iran's asymmetric control over the strait is a pretty powerful tool. And we're [6:57] seeing that right now for all these producers who require that seaborne access to their markets. [7:02] They're shutting in supply right now so that they don't overflow their own storage. What that means [7:08] is that the inventories that are forward positioned in the world are going to be exhausted. The [7:12] strategic reserves that are coming to the rescue will be used. But we're looking at weeks before [7:16] things start to get very tight. Already in Asian economies, you're seeing refiners cutting their [7:20] runs. You're seeing export controls so that products that are refined in those economies [7:24] aren't going to global markets. We're very insulated here. [7:27] In the United States, we're a net exporter. The world itself uses 36 percent less oil per dollar [7:33] of real GDP than it did 25 years ago. But we're talking about three to four percent of the energy [7:38] that supplies global consumption going offline. We're going to feel that. [7:42] Was there any justification to make up for the fact that America is helping put money in [7:48] Vladimir Putin's pocket by lifting these Russia sanctions? Is that going to make a dent in the [7:53] oil price? I think one way to think about it, Margaret, is that both the strategic reserve [7:57] and the Russia sanctions relief are tools that are available to the U.S. government right now. [8:02] The price might be higher without them. But we can't quantify it, really. [8:06] It's hard to prove a negative. But is it just to show they're doing something? [8:12] Well, there is a certain every person in public office tries to show responsiveness and correctness [8:15] like this. The problem is that as the price rises, interventions become more significant. [8:20] Sometimes the best thing is to do nothing, let the market work it out. But no one gets elected [8:24] to office on that basis. Fair point. Johnny, the U.S. [8:28] intelligence assessments say Iran's government is not at risk of collapsing. [8:32] You've been thinking about Iran for a while. What do you think of this new Supreme Leader, [8:35] who we haven't seen out in public? Well, most of Khamenei is clearly not [8:40] a charming public face. What he is, is a systems operator. So he was a gatekeeper [8:46] for the Supreme Leader's office in the past. He has strong ties to the IRGC and the Basij. [8:51] He knows how power actually operates. And he is effectively a symbol of continuity right now. [8:57] And I think that's more important. [8:59] Than being an actual, in an actual managerial role. He is the message from the regime [9:04] that they are still in control. And the stability of that regime. [9:11] It's the regime and the command and control over the asymmetric capabilities that Iran has to [9:16] include, for example, proxies that may seek to do Americans harm, sleeper cells in the United [9:20] States and more. So as we do think about the new Supreme Leader, I'm thinking about from a [9:25] homeland perspective, whether that individual has a command and control over the tools that [9:30] could, in fact, harm Americans. [9:31] Margaret, and these are open questions we're going to try to get answers to. [9:35] Thank you to all of you. [9:37] That's it for us today. Thank you for watching. [9:40] Until next week for Face the Nation, I'm Margaret Brennan.