Ret. Gen. Frank McKenzie says "we're on our way" to making Strait of Hormuz passable

[0:00] For more on the ongoing war in Iran, we're joined by Iran policy analyst Kareem Sajafour, [0:05] as well as former CENTCOM commander and CBS News contributor, retired General Frank McKenzie, [0:11] who joins us this morning from Tampa. Good morning to you both. Kareem, let me start with you. [0:17] Today in Islamabad, you have Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, these self-proclaimed mediators gathered [0:23] together to talk about how to de-escalate the war. Iran so far hasn't responded to the 15 points the [0:29] Trump administration put forward. And Rubio said he's not even sure who they'd be negotiating [0:34] with. So what is the reality of who we're negotiating with? And are we even negotiating? [0:41] Well, Margaret, this is a regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which came to power in 1979, [0:46] taking American diplomats hostage. And now they think they have the global economy hostage. And [0:51] they're fighting a war of survival. They're also fighting a war of revenge against President Trump. [0:55] So at the moment, they don't feel compelled to compromise, it seems, because [0:59] they're not going to be able to do anything. [1:00] The trend lines are, oil prices are going up. American public opinion about the war is going [1:06] down. And many of these leaders that we're hoping to negotiate with are right now living underground, [1:12] fighting for their lives. [1:13] Well, to your point on that difference, that asymmetric difference in power, [1:18] General, I want to bring you in here because one of the things that Iran had been waiting to do [1:24] was activate its militias, or the militias it supports in Yemen, the Houthis, over the weekend. [1:30] They jumped into the fight and fired on Israel. Do you think that this is a game changer, [1:37] given that they could not just disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, but another [1:40] passageway through the Red Sea? [1:44] Margaret, I don't think it'll be a game changer. Their ability to attack Israel is quite limited. [1:50] Yes, they will have the ability to further stop slow traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb going up [1:55] into the Suez Canal. We have the ability to go down there and prevent that. It will require [1:59] additional resources. But we have those. [2:01] We have those resources, and we can certainly do it if that becomes necessary. [2:04] Well, the president has made clear that he needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His language has [2:10] been contradictory on some of these points as to who's going to do it and when. [2:14] What's the military reality of making it passable? [2:20] We're on our way to doing that now, Margaret. This is part of a plan that's been in existence [2:25] for many years. What we're doing right now is we're reducing Iranian ability to target ships [2:30] in the Strait through their short-range missiles. [2:33] We're not going to do that. We're going to do it through our own drones and other activities. [2:37] We do that by maintaining air superiority over southern Iran on a 24-7 basis. Looking [2:41] for where these missiles are and striking them relentlessly. Once we reduce those to [2:46] a very low level, then you'll be able to go in, if necessary, sweep for mines. I'm not [2:49] certain they've put mines in the water yet. I predict eventually they will. It's their [2:53] nature. But we have the ability to do this. We're on plan. I'll be honest with you, Margaret. [2:59] I've simulated this many years in many positions at Central Command. [3:02] than we would have expected to be at this point in all the simulations that I've seen. [3:06] I'm going to guess in your simulations, you looked at what would happen to the [3:10] Strait of Hormuz, even though the president said no one ever thought of it. [3:13] You thought of it, didn't you? [3:16] U.S. military thinks of a lot of things. We certainly have thought of the Strait of Hormuz, [3:19] thought of Karg Island. Think of all those islands on the southern littoral of Iran. [3:24] Karim, the president said the Israelis killed the second tier pragmatist types that he had [3:30] thought he might be able to go and negotiate with. In recent days, the name that has emerged [3:35] is the parliament speaker, Ghalibaf. What do we know about him? Is he someone you can make [3:41] a deal with? [3:42] Ghalibaf is, importantly, a former senior Revolutionary Guard commander and a close [3:47] advisor to Mujtaba Khamenei. Under different circumstances, he is someone who aspires to be [3:53] Iran's modern strongman leader. I've actually met him in the World Economic Forum in Davos. [3:59] Just the fact that he shows up, [4:00] he's a strongman leader. I've actually met him in the World Economic Forum in Davos. Just the fact [4:00] that he shows up, he's a strongman leader. I've actually met him in the World Economic Forum in [4:00] Davos. Just the fact that he shows up, he's a strongman leader. I've actually met him in the World [4:00] Economic Forum in Davos. Just the fact that he shows up, he's a strongman leader. I've actually met [4:01] him in the World Economic Forum in Davos. Just the fact that he shows up, he's a strongman leader. [4:01] He shows up in Davos shows you a little bit about his world view. [4:03] But under the current circumstances, no one in that Iranian system is capable of changing [4:10] the longtime ideology of antipathy toward America and toward Israel, even if they wanted to. [4:18] Explain that, if you would. Because what we hear from the White House and from Israel is that [4:23] pressure will break them. You're saying they're unbreakable? [4:28] At the moment, and this could change in [4:31] in the future, but we haven't seen any cracks in the regime's resolve. [4:35] We haven't seen any cracks in the cohesion of its security forces. [4:41] And given the fact that so many of its top officials, including the Supreme Leader, have [4:46] been killed, it's a regime which is not prepared to compromise or change its ideology. [4:52] They actually believe that antipathy towards America is part of their identity. [4:58] And if you capitulate on that, it actually doesn't prolong your shelf life. [5:02] It actually could hasten your death. [5:04] So if there's not a negotiated settlement, how does this end? [5:10] I don't see any possibility of a resolution to this conflict. [5:15] I think the U.S. and Iran are miles apart when it comes to their goals here. [5:21] Now, I think we could see a potential ceasefire that opens the Strait of Hormuz, which would [5:26] shift this back from a hot war back to a cold war. [5:30] But there's no possibility, in my view, so long as this regime is in power, of a U.S.-Iran [5:35] normalization. [5:37] General, do you agree with that assessment? [5:39] I mean, it does seem that the Trump administration is acknowledging the regime will stay if they [5:44] are at least offering to negotiate with the regime, so it would allow for them to remain [5:51] in power. [5:53] The primary goal of Iranian statecraft, Margaret, is survival of the regime. [5:58] Back in the late 1980s, they signed a truce with Iran. [6:00] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:00] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:01] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:01] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:01] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:01] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:01] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:02] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:02] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:02] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:03] They signed a truce with Iran. [6:03] They signed a truce with Iran when things are going very bad for Iran in Iranian history [6:05] as known as drinking from the poison chalice. [6:07] I believe that they will break. [6:10] I believe that they will come to terms and it may be an imperfect solution, but I think [6:14] it would be one that would include opening the Strait of Hormuz, possibly some deal on [6:18] the missile systems. [6:21] The nuclear program is certainly a possibility. [6:23] But I believe eventually they'll make a deal. [6:26] But we need to keep the pressure up. [6:27] We need to continue to press them very hard, because that is, in fact, the only way that [6:31] thing they will respond to. [6:33] So the president had posted he's postponed the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz [6:38] as a result of the Iranian government asking for it. [6:41] He says he's shifted that to April 6th at 8 p.m. [6:46] We also hear from the secretary of state that he's talking to the allies about a post-conflict [6:52] necessity of having other countries help to essentially police the strait. [6:59] And he said that you will need tankers to have military escorts. [7:04] So this doesn't sound like this is a short-term project. [7:10] This sounds like, even if combat ends, we're going to be talking about a military presence [7:16] in the region for some time. [7:18] Am I wrong? [7:20] MARK SHIELDS, U.S. Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, You could be right. [7:22] Let's see what happens. [7:24] I think a negotiated – there are two ways the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. [7:27] It can be opened if the Iranians negotiate with us to open it, and, of course, that's [7:30] the desired solution. [7:31] The other solution would be if they don't and they decide to fight, we can open the [7:35] strait under that condition, too. [7:36] The second condition is obviously a lot more intensive in terms of ships and equipment [7:41] they would have to bring into the region. [7:43] And, yes, help from our allies would certainly be – would be very useful in that case. [7:48] We have the ability to open the Strait of Hormuz under any condition that the Iranians [7:52] choose to exist under. [7:53] AMNA NAWAZ Does it appear to you that one of the contingencies [7:57] that the White House is planning for, given that they're continuing to move troops into [8:01] the region? [8:02] I mean, you have these Marines who are moving into the area, as well. [8:07] Are they preparing for a ground troop presence? [8:12] And what does that look like? [8:14] GEOFF BENNETT Margaret, for many years, we've considered [8:18] options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases, typically [8:25] raids. [8:26] And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. [8:28] You're not going to stay. [8:29] But some of those islands you could seize and hold. [8:31] That would have a couple effects. [8:33] First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating. [8:34] GEOFF BENNETT Right. [8:35] GEOFF BENNETT It would be completely humiliating for Iran. [8:36] And it would give us great weight in negotiations. [8:38] The second, the example of Karg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Karg Island, [8:43] you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. [8:46] And the beauty of seizing it is you're not destroying it. [8:49] You're retaining it for further use by the global economy and possibly for return to [8:54] Iran under certain conditions. [8:56] So all of these things, this is not back of the envelope calculations. [9:00] These are things we've been working on for many years, and I think we're right to threaten [9:04] the entire littoral to hold all these options out there. [9:07] And I think the president's message is spot-on when he talks about all these alternatives. [9:11] STEPHANIE SY But can he achieve his goals without ground troops, which is what the secretary [9:17] of state says? [9:18] And how does this end? [9:20] How do you call this a success? [9:21] GEOFF BENNETT Sure. [9:24] I think a success looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open. [9:27] We get some kind of deal on the ballistic missile program, some kind of deal on the [9:30] nuclear program. [9:31] That's probably about as much as you could hope for. [9:33] But I think they're very discreet things. [9:35] But for me, at least, from an operational military perspective, would be, would look [9:39] like victory. [9:40] I believe all of those things are actually within our grasp. [9:44] We just need to continue. [9:45] Iran will ultimately respond to the use of force. [9:48] They know and understand it perhaps better than we have in the past. [9:52] This administration is willing to use force. [9:54] Other administrations have been thoroughly deterred by Iran. [9:58] President Trump is not deterred by Iran. [10:00] STEPHANIE SY Yeah. [10:01] Well, the president says he wants a deal. [10:03] GEOFF BENNETT Yes. [10:04] STEPHANIE SY Yes. [10:05] GEOFF BENNETT Even though I know you think that's going to be pretty hard to get to. [10:09] And he said Vice President Vance is going to be directly involved here, Kareem. [10:15] What does that signal to you? [10:16] KAREEM ZAIDANI Well, the Iranians actually want to negotiate with Vice President Vance [10:20] for a couple of reasons. [10:21] Number one, they think he comes from the anti-war wing of the Republican Party. [10:26] And number two, they think because of the fact that J.D. Vance wants to run for president, [10:30] he's incentivized to want to wrap this war up pretty quickly. [10:33] And I agree with something General McKenzie said, which is... [10:34] GEOFF BENNETT Yeah. [10:35] STEPHANIE SY Yes. [10:36] GEOFF BENNETT We know over the last five decades that this regime is only compromised under [10:40] really clear circumstances, when it faces existential pressure, coupled with a clear [10:45] diplomatic exit. [10:47] I think it's feeling existential pressure. [10:49] I don't think they've yet seen a clear diplomatic exit. [10:52] STEPHANIE SY Well, gentlemen, thank you both for lending us your expertise for this conversation. [10:57] We'll have to leave it there.