US NFP Release: Will Jobs Data Shift the Fed? DXY, Gold & US Indices Key Levels & Reaction

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: not too hot not too cold that's what markets want from today's all-important u.s non-front perils but as the song says you don't always get what you want things could go wild in a good way in a bad way lots of moving parts in today's non-front perils for gold us dollar nasdaq everything you're trading is about to move and there's no better person to cover this all-important event with me then nian coleman nian how are you doing i'm very well yeah yourself good good looking forward to another exciting and explosive hopefully uh coverage um so we're gonna cover all the charts fundamentals and of course we welcome your questions everybody here uh please put your questions and we'll be glad to answer them but before we examine any chart that you are suggesting us dear viewers ian do you have any specific asset that you have your eye on right now that is of [00:00:54] Speaker 2: high interest to you yeah um again welcome it's great to be here with you um dxy is what i'm looking at which is the dollar index um so obviously the driving force uh behind uh most products including uh gold which we will be getting onto in a while um but yeah it's we've seen a lot of choppy price action and that's quite normal uh going into uh high data releases or or you know highly anticipated uh data releases and what can happen is we get chopped around on a daily basis it sort of goes sidewards um and then we get a sort of defined move uh over the figures um but it's not always the right move as we know you know hey um a lot of the time we get sort of a knee-jerk reaction um market then as a rethink about what's really going on um and uh and then we move in the opposite direction so the first chart that i'm going to put out on if you can share that for me is uh the dxy and i'm actually going to do a reverse time frame analysis this time so what we normally do is start the monthly chart go to the weekly chart daily four hour blah blah blah blah blah but what what i'm actually going to look at i'm going to look at coming in from the other side so basically looking at the hourly chart and the reason i'm doing this is because the hourly chart is the one that's got the setup basically so looking at the hourly chart and then breaking down into higher time frames so this is sort of the choppy price action that we've seen since the beginning of august uh we're now on the 7th of august um so really sort of sidewards movement right we have made higher highs and higher lows but it's this level that interests me which is at 99.81 and it's purely from an uh elliott wave perspective so this to me looks like wave one wave two wave three wave four and wave five so this suggests um this time frame suggests that if we do get a spike to the upside um the rally will be limited and then we'll see a move lower and if we go out to a higher time frame um this is quite important this time frame this is the yeah this is the eight hour charts are near enough for daily um we've got a confluence zone down here so this would suggest we're actually going to move lower uh over the medium term down towards this confluence zone which is 97.80 97.76 elliott wave analysis would actually suggest that this current wave that we're in at the moment is a fourth wave correction now that will hold as long as we don't break above basically 100 the figure and i've got a note as we always do this is capital.com pricing your broker may have different pricing for uh the dx wife that the dollar index is that they're not always the same um so sort of prime short entry here and then a decent move to the downside and as we sort of always talk about um it's where there's value so there's basically value here because the formation is broken above there uh this is an entry level that's the target level comes in at about 7r so i think if you're looking at um over a medium term sort of outlook selling into dollar rallies [00:04:26] Speaker 1: looks quite beneficial got it okay so we have uh quite an interesting uh risk reward rate there on on the us dollar uh if it falls but why should it fall well there are good reasons uh to have it fall it all depends on the data let's talk a bit about what the data is expected to tell us so uh us non-form perils we'll start with the top figure with the headline the ethics trade economic calendar uh points to uh an increase of 80 000 jobs 80k in the u.s economy in july we have the report for july that's a bit better than 57 000 reported for june which was at the time a disappointment but this figure as ian said today is august 7th and yeah we are working in august somebody has to do this kind of work and uh in we had a few days already this month to get a few leading indicators so we will um talk soon about how this impacts gold how it impacts the us dollar these leading indicators uh showed us that the hiring was a bit weaker in the united states so adp's private sector jobs report was softer the employment component in the ism services pmi uh fell from above 50 to below 50 which means from expansion to contraction so real market expectations are probably below 80. now what do what markets want from the headline they wanted to show slightly slower hiring which means no pressure to raise interest rates but still a growing economy that's the goldilocks i've been talking about uh but it's not the only figure to uh watch out for and um yeah um we can um talk about the other figures but remember the initial response which is not always the correct response belongs to the headline i would say that real expectations are at 50 000 60 000 something like that any figure above 100 000 would boost the us dollar and weigh on golden stocks any figure under 50 000 would probably do the opposite which means help gold help stocks and weigh on the us dollar before we talk about the secondary uh figures and and gold that i know many people are um uh looking forward to it's it's been on the rise it's quite volatile and exciting ian i know you have another uh interesting chart uh on on your uh on [00:06:59] Speaker 2: your radar yeah i want to look at um at the us 30 which is the dow jones so we've hit record highs um and we've seen quite a decent correction to the downside um i put my linkedin um profile the other day that calling a top in in in us indices i don't know if i've been a little bit early but i do have a lot of sort of correlation here that suggests that we that we that we're going to see some downside pressure at least over the over the medium term so um and this all sort of this is all going to correlate back to gold believe it or not um so the reason that we're covering these subjects first is because it does give us a bias on gold so we've got the dollar in there giving us a bias on gold already then then we can use the us 30 we can correlate all of those back to a bigger picture analysis for gold so um 261.8 extension level at 54 422. it just sort of spiked through there could be seen as a liquidity grab but what i do like is that you can quite clearly see an elliott wave pattern to the upside i know it is really impulsive uh and then we've seen this this move lower we've still got gaps below now gaps do have a tendency to be closed and they normally get closed quite quickly but what i do like is going to excuse me going out to this this chart here okay so these are um different types of support and resistance levels you've got a 52 778 support that's located that's followed by 51 537 and then this support zone down here now basically what this is is a is a point of control uh and a cycle support and when all of these sort of line up it tweaks my interest basically so what i like to see i like to see a trend finishing with five waves and then a five wave projection uh to the to the downside to then complete a separate wave so this is sort of saying to me you know we're gonna we're gonna be making a top um in uh the us 30 obviously if the us 30 moves to the downside um there's scope for um it's well it's not quite as easy as just minus one minus one if if the us 30 moves to the downside that should boost gold but um if the dollar index moves to the upside that should also have a negative effect on gold so we're sort of we're in a bit of a conundrum at the moment if you like we'll we'll get to that [00:09:44] Speaker 1: once uh once we get to the gold charts okay yeah and just before we talk about uh gold i want to talk about other and non-farm payrolls figures that could steal the show once again the initial reaction belongs to the headline uh but afterwards i want to highlight two other figures first um average hourly earnings we haven't talked about that in a while but basically are americans getting a pay raise and it's important because it means that if they have more money in their pockets they can spend more of it and then inflation rises and that has become more important because the fed is focused on inflation they're sort of saying man the labor market is okay don't worry about it and um but if the labor market shows that prices are rising sorry wages are rising then um maybe they'll have to raise rates earlier uh so the figures we're looking for average our learnings are basically economists are saying more of the same these are exactly the cases where any kind of surprise can rock them so we're talking about 0.3 percent uh monthly raise and monthly average hourly earnings increase exactly like the previous month and on yearly basis 3.5 percent exactly the same if these figures are higher it should be positive for the us dollar again this is the secondary reaction not the initial one that belongs to the the headline and if these figures are below expectations then we can expect uh the opposite we can expect some useful weakness and it's good for gold and for stocks the second figure i want to talk about is what the fed actually talks about i mean its mandate full employment depends on this figure and the unemployment rate very simple 4.2 percent last month it was surprisingly good but there's a big asterisk here it fell to 4.2 percent in june because the participation rate also dropped now the participation rate is how many people in the total population or or total people who can work not uh the sick the elderly the the children um how many of them are actually looking for a job how many are uh are participating and this was dropping last time it dropped from 61.8 percent to 61.5 percent and this is the figure right here we don't have expectations for that but at some point the participation rate which is currently at the lowest it's been in around four years you can see here on the chart it's been dropping uh then we have um if it doesn't continue dropping i expect the unemployment rate to rise if the unemployment rate rises just a bit okay um that means lower interest rates good for uh gold good for stocks still a strong economy and uh but otherwise if it drops too much i don't expect it today then it's houston we have a problem um so these are the figures the secondary figures to look out to 18 minutes uh towards uh to the non-front perils until we get the actual data and maybe it's a good time to begin uh talking about uh goldian or do you have anything else hot on on your charts before we move [00:12:58] Speaker 2: on to the precious metal yeah my my favorite setup um for a swing trade actually at the moment is the euro against the us dollar uh we looked at dollar swiss this morning um and again i'd like to sell into rallies in dollar swiss but it's that actual currency pair move of hours and it's gone gone out of sync this one hasn't um this is uh the euro dollar it's the eight hour chart i do like eight hours 12 hours four hour time frames um this highlights that we're going to move higher or we are moving higher uh within um the cd lake of a bat formation i've got a really nice confluence zone up here 117 30 uh 117 37 is a 261.8 extension level and then 117 41 is the point of control the yearly point of control i do like using um high liquidity zones for either entry or exits so this suggests to me that we're going to push higher and then and then dump out around around 117 41 so that's the eight hour chart now we all we've already talked about the fact that the dollar index on a short time frame looks like it could spike higher before it then moves lower now obviously 65 of the dollar index is made up of the euro so that would suggest that the euro has the possibility to spike lower before we continue this trend to the upside and that really brings in quite a nice chart on the one hour chart or a nice uh pattern i should say on the one hour chart so i've got a support level at 1.1484 that is um virtually a perfect uh butterfly formation so it's a cypher pattern it's a 127 extension of this leg this a ax leg and then it's a 161.8 extension of this a b leg so what would that would dictate is as the dollar index is moving to the downside or correcting to the downside on an intraday basis this has moved higher on an intraday basis but when the dollar flips this should move lower get towards that trigger zone at 114.84 and then complete this cypher pattern and then move higher uh and again sort of just going back to this chart i love the fact um that it's near this previous swing higher here as well at 114.81 so basically what uh what was resistance uh now basically it becomes support so it acts acts as a pivot so out of all the sort of different products i suppose um today um that would be my favorite setup would be to buy into a dip uh in the euro against the us dollar and again sort of looking at a risk reward factor um you know getting all the way up oh excuse me to these sort of levels i think you could have your stop loss below um the previous point of control sort of brings in around about 5r uh for that in trade okay so i have [00:16:15] Speaker 1: opportunities on euro dollar and dollar index which are of course super highly correlated because of the euro's uh big weight in in um in the in the dollar index uh yeah we have lots of requests here for uh nasdaq kiwi dollar and but we'll the next chart we'll talk about gold it will be gold uh one thing i want to highlight before that um we're expecting high volatility at least i'm expecting because of many reasons but one of them is that um betting markets are pricing more or less an even chance almost 50 50 between uh the fed leaving interest rates unchanged and um and raising interest rates in september so when we have things that are too perfectly balanced that's one thing that's when markets uh can explode uh one asset that has moved quite nicely is uh that already seemed to explode finally is uh gold so um here please ian go ahead with gold a real messy chart i've done this on purpose this [00:17:25] Speaker 2: morning um somebody uh within the discord channel said to us this morning what's the what's the elliot wave count on four hours and i said well it depends and it depends where you take your wave count from so that's all these different horrible um basic basic wave counts um but we've got a 261.8 extension here and that's just off this little um last move to the upside and that screams to me that we might just correct lower off this fib but if the dollar gets stalled so in other words that dollar buying we see some dollar buying over over the the figures that should result in uh gold just pulling to the downside but i think it's going to be short-lived so let's get rid of that one to start with before we sort of confuse everybody let's get rid of that one as well um and i think that where we're looking over a medium term um basis is really up around these sort of levels so there's a point of control of 4552 i think we will see a knee-jerk reaction to the downside there's a support intraday support level located at 4277 and remember this is a four-hour chart so i wouldn't expect a quick move to there um and then obviously we're getting into sort of pivot levels if it gets below 4201 then the whole of these sort of sequences are blown out of the water so um at the moment we're still making higher highs and higher lows i think what we will see is we'll see a reaction to the downside i don't expect it to be sustained 4277 uh 4271 is an an intraday support area long-term long-term bullish just going back to what we said about sorry you know hey um and um the potential of a downside downside pressure for uh stock indices this could have a double whammy effect so obviously if the dollar moves to the downside it normally generates bullish price action for gold if stock indices move to the downside then we also um have the potential to move higher on on safe haven [00:19:46] Speaker 1: asset buying yeah i think it's going to be fascinating and uh i remember this morning you asked me a question uh what would it take to have both the us dollar and uh us stocks uh falling um and one thing that came to my mind is cheap chinese ai uh why is that well ai is everywhere and as ai stocks have been booming but what happens if uh it just comes more cheaply from china like so many other uh products like solar panels or or you name it then we could have a situation in which the us dollar falls because there's this inflation also as u.s stocks fall because especially tech stocks because they've been riding high on the ai wave and if this competition um and it's a different story and this um is a good opportunity to answer our viewers questions about nasdaq how is the tech heavy index doing [00:20:48] Speaker 2: technically um we've stalled so um there's there's a weekly pivot to 29 885 um we could just got about above there we gave this sort of bearish outside candle um and then we moved to the downside i wanted to see a longer extension so i wanted to see that move get down towards sort of 2008 uh sorry 28 600 28 534 area because then i can sort of correlate it with different support levels it is a strong band so if we look uh back um to where sort of price actions happened uh through sort of peaks in in july then a lot of sellers did get attracted around this this this area for me and just really just correlating it back to uh us 30 um as long as it stays below 29 885 and of course we've got that 30 000 big figure which attracts um buying and selling um then i would have a bearish bias down [00:21:54] Speaker 1: towards 28 547. yeah okay there's there's a difference between uh how much we use the tech and how much these companies can can make uh money stiff competition is is another uh factor uh yeah we have questions about uh the kiwi dollar uh the kiwi the new zealand dollar is a commodity currency uh before uh we yen observes the the kiwi chart i'll mention another commodity currency the canadian dollar uh which is of interest today i don't know how many of you are trading it um we apparently didn't get many questions but they also release in canada their jobs report so i'll just talk about it very briefly so canada is expected to report an increase of 15 000 jobs in um in july according to the fx street economic calendar and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.5 percent so also here expectations are for more of the same and when we have this rinse repeat i don't know if the i created these expectations but that that is when actual figures real data can make a difference okay we're seven minutes to go until non-front payrolls and um yeah ian uh please share with us uh what's going on in kiwi dollar there's been quite a bit of volatility there yeah um it's been it's been quite an [00:23:15] Speaker 2: interesting i look at uh single currency baskets a lot and it's really one that's been um gyrating should we say uh over the last uh couple of weeks couple of months it's been it's been a good uh single currency to trade uh at the moment we are seeing a bit of consolidation um on an intraday basis remember i'm i'm expecting a move higher in dxy over the short term that should push new zealand dollar uh lower over the short term what we look to be forming is uh just a corrective channel pattern um overlaying or overlapping price action um the points of control so there's two points of control here which have high liquidity zones 150 sorry 58.62 and 58.60 and all you can see is the market just keeps on going down grabbing that liquidity pushing back higher some might say that it looks like a descending um triangle formation that has a bias to break to the downside i think the immediate bias is bearish as the dollar moves higher but this is a prime long entry for me so we've got um the trend well it's not the trend of lower lows uh because this is actually the trend of higher highs but so it's the projected trend line support and it comes in or it will come in virtually perfectly with my bespoke support level at 0.5844 so what i'd expect to happen if we get that dollar move that we are expecting is a move to the downside and then a breakout of the channel looks like a flag i'm not quite sure how far it'll extend there is a another point of control up here uh at 59.28 which looks quite attractive [00:25:03] Speaker 1: okay interesting five minutes to go until the event non-front payrolls us non-front payrolls is coming out report for uh july expected to show an increase of 80 000 jobs but real expectations are a bit lower thank you everybody for joining us and uh yeah we have five minutes to go we love your questions keep them coming um one thing i'll i want to add is that um regarding that employment rate some commercial back what we see on our charts 4.2 percent but some are expecting uh 4.3 percent i suspect we could get a surprising increase in the unemployment rate if it's just 4.3 percent great unemployment is just a bit higher so interest rates are going down if it's a big jump unlikely then we will have uh worries about uh the u.s uh economy uh okay uh we have for something like four minutes to go um keep your uh questions coming we'll try to answer as many as possible and uh in the meantime uh yen i see you have a silver chart ready for us what's going on in the second precious metal yeah i just [00:26:16] Speaker 2: thought it was worth looking at this because obviously it's um it's correlated with uh with gold so obviously when silver moves to the upside there is a silver gold ratio but they have a tendency to move in sync with each other and just to sort of overlay um the view on gold in the fact that it's got a chance to pull to the pull to the downside to give a sort of buying opportunity for a swing trade higher um here we've seen a stalling in price action virtually pit perfect to the 161.8 extension level at 64.70 i've got a resistance level at 64.95 what it would say as an elliot wave sort of outlook is that we're just going to pull back in a fourth wave we've got sort of a confluence zone so 63.25 was a previous swing high and then we've got this little swing high here which is at 62.88 so basically what it would suggest is that we're gonna sort of make something like this before we before we power higher again so just mirroring what the potential outlook is in gold and dxy etc could get the knee-jerk reaction in in the dollar with the dollar moving higher that will push gold and silver to the downside but then that should be short-lived and then we can uh we can project higher and also just looking at this um this chart this is a really impulsive move higher is it sort of you know grabbing stop losses etc etc etc and elliot wave says you know the third wave should be the most impulsive impulsive so sort of quite not enjoying this analysis but i quite like this analysis that we could we could see more buying pressure over the medium term okay so we have a minute and [00:28:13] Speaker 1: they have to go 90 seconds uh yeah so uh once again now we're expecting a non-front payrolls us on for pills to come out shortly uh official expectations stand at an increase of 80 000 jobs which is a bit better than 50 000 in june real expectations are a bit low because adp ism came out weaker than expected but i want to remind everybody that uh non-front payrolls in the past few years had more upside surprises than downside surprises and uh the initial reaction yes begin belongs to the headline figure but uh the then we have two other figures to watch out for average hourly earnings and also the uh the unemployment rate which is actually the fed's mandate uh yeah we have a question here about this trade of vermouth uh it's being finalized and finalized and finalized we'll get to that after we get the data because we don't have a lot of time so we're talking about 30 seconds to go uh my synchronized watch here um and again uh beware the initial reaction is not necessarily the right one any last minute tip 20 [00:29:24] Speaker 2: seconds to go again before we examine the numbers no just look you know if you are trading uh elliot wave just look at uh wave breaks so you know at the moment i'm just staring at this this dxy one hour chart it breaks if it goes under wave one it's target a wave five and when you catch the data is coming out [00:29:51] Speaker 1: oh negative minus 23k the u.s economy lost not gained lost 23 000 jobs in july but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent that means a drop in the participation rate exactly 61.4 percent and also average hourly earnings are disappointing uh only 0.1 percent pay raise for americans last month sorry for that and uh only 3.2 percent uh or a year over year that is a negative jobs report uh on the outset we might have revisions here yes we have at least four um the month of june a downside revision from 57 to 20 000 on the outset it looks like a very bad report that means some price [00:30:41] Speaker 2: action ian what do you see on the charts yeah a little bit annoying i would have preferred to see a knee-jerk reaction to the upside first so obviously this count on the on the dollar index has been broken um so we can get rid of that and we sort of switch over to the to the medium term chart so uh it's looking very bearish very negative for uh for dxy uh seen stock indices move higher on the back of that figure which is bizarre um but yeah we can explain that go ahead yeah okay uh but yeah looking looking looking negative for dxy looking positive for gold at the moment yeah this is not exactly the goldilocks [00:31:24] Speaker 1: uh chart uh outcome we wanted we wanted just a bit of us uh economic weakness uh this looks like a bit more but there's a lot of confusion also with the drop in the unemployment rate again on the back of a drop in the participation rate so fewer people are participating in the labor force also it's important to note i'm sure we'll have questions about it how come the us economy lost jobs and the unemployment rate dropped it's not only the participation rate but it's another fact these figures come from two separate surveys one surveys households asking people did you work last week and the other uh surveys uh businesses the unemployment rate it comes from one and the non-form payrolls comes from another we'll soon get um more figures uh but ian is there another chart that is on the [00:32:14] Speaker 2: move that caught your attention you want to talk about something else yeah sorry gold um gold just hit that 161.8 extension level at 4 362. medium term bias is still to the upside i would i would not recommend um selling gold for for the correction downwards um the support zone is still four thousand two hundred and seventy seven four thousand two hundred and seventy one so potential for a dip but it should only be corrective um before before we move up to this sort of medium term target area at four thousand five hundred and fifty two four thousand six hundred and twenty okay so for those [00:32:54] Speaker 1: of us uh those of you joining us only now we had a shocking uh u.s jobs report showing a loss of uh jobs in the united states in the month of july july the american economy lost not gain lost 23 000 jobs last month that's a surprise that that doesn't happen every day uh the participation rate in uh the economy dropped to yet another four year low at 61.4 percent and that helped the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent so there's a bit of confusion uh wage growth is for that for the fed good for gold good for stocks that means that there is no rush for the federal reserve to raise interest rates and uh if we look here at odds of um um doesn't seem to that much of a rate hike in uh in september oh yeah it did move quite a bit it was around 50 50 and now it jumped to roughly um 62 percent um in according to polymarket that show uh no uh no change and only 36 percent for a rate hike so quite a substantial move uh over there yet another chart that caught your eyes in this surprising uh u.s non from perils [00:34:13] Speaker 2: reports want to talk about anything else yeah i'm just looking at dolly yen um i mean that's sort of powering lower um on the back of that that data release um i had a pivot up here at 160 which i would have liked to have sold into but this is this is really gathering speed now um it's blown um all the sort of daily support levels of 157 45 and it's it's just keeping on going so um obviously that dollar selling quite strong uh in that um in that currency pair um nothing else is really catching my right now but i will have a scan of the of the charts and see what's going on yeah keep your uh questions uh [00:34:58] Speaker 1: coming uh so yeah one pair we didn't talk about underwent such a huge intervention last week uh dollar yen coordinated intervention both the us and japan coordinated too and they sent it from around 163 to um 155 at some point but then it began creeping up because you can't find fight the fundamentals for too long u.s interest rates are much higher than japanese ones uh but in recent days it was freezing the u.s the dorian chart until it exploded right now policy makers are opening champagne bottles it's now something like half past uh at night if i'm not mistaken uh so yeah the weekend is about to begin in tokyo uh some rooftop party is going on there and uh as policymakers are celebrating the boost in the japanese yen um so quite a bit of price action again for those of you joining us right now u.s non-farm payrolls came out negative negative 23 000 a loss of jobs in um in the previous uh month in july um and on top of a downward revision and yen i see already with the euro dollar chart what's going [00:36:15] Speaker 2: on over there yeah i'm just saying do we do do we continue buying basically um so the gold chart highlighted a 161.8 extension we've got um silver at a 161.8 extension we've also got um some bespoke resistance there and the euro against the us dollar is also very close to a 161.8 extension level so elliot wave analysis in all in all three of these dollar denominated pairs would suggest that we're probably going to get a period of consolidation so what happens is we get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside um we then see something like this um as uh we consolidate within a fourth wave before we before we sort of power higher and a lot of the time as well we just get spikes out of these um sidewards rectangle um accumulation distribution zones just to accumulate or gather some stop losses before before the next move higher so what i'm trying to get through to our viewers and traders is just be careful on how much follow-through buying is going to happen today i think for me just as a swing trader um i prefer to buy into dips now i don't know if i buy into [00:37:36] Speaker 1: current levels yeah yeah it's a bit uh complicated we have a follow-up question here um uh will there be more interventions as dollar yen uh and how how low could it go well uh ian talked about levels on the charts uh more interventions of course um they can get more appetite again there was a coordinated intervention in which the us helped japan boost the yen and the us even sold euros without telling the european central bank as part of this process that shows for me to me lots of determination to boost the yen across the pacific um and we have more figures uh that maybe i guess support what you said yen that it's hard to maybe chase these moves so not all is bad news in the u.s economy uh let's start with the bad news that i found that the total revisions were a loss of 103 000 jobs that's substantial in may in june revisions from may in june but the upside is that this loss of 23 000 in headline non-farm payrolls if you look into the details private payrolls rose by 30 000 and uh when it's government jobs that uh cut 53 000 positions now every worker is is is the world's um and losing a job is not fun unless you uh uh you quit of course but um there is a difference markets see differently private sector jobs which are considered positive and government jobs which in some cases and not all cases of course are considered less important so um that is sort of a silver lining in general this is a bad report but not a disaster which means interest rates are unlikely to go up in september if we look at this report only non-farm payrolls here so keep your questions coming in the meantime um yeah we have uh yen you're ready with the dollar again and questions to answer afterwards uh yeah i'm just going to put a look [00:39:46] Speaker 2: at dollar swiss uh quite quickly um because this was actually a product that we we fancied this morning we put a cell limit on but then the structure broke so we we took it off before the figures we were we wouldn't have triggered uh because we were looking at selling at higher levels but i think this is quite interesting because we've got this confluence zone to the uh to the downside elliott wave again wave one wave two three four and then sort of an elongated fifth wave ending uh as a wedge pattern and we're now moving to the downside now unlike uh a lot of the other uh dollar products i.e euro against the us dollar gold gold silver this looks like it could continue to uh to power lower so um basically selling uh the selling the dollars on the back of uh or selling dollars on the back of the figures but also buying swiss which is a safe haven so there's two scenarios that are sort of pushing this and this is why this sell-off should be a more aggressive sell-off uh than uh the other products um also looks to be forming a back pattern so basically this first leg being uh the ab leg got a while to go until we get to that support and that support is at 0.7965 if we go back to this chart we could get a little bounce so a lot of the time there's liquidity just under trend lines we spike lower and then we back by its bounce higher if we get back up towards 80 88 or 0.8088 there's a liquidity band around here and i think that would be worth considering a short trade uh to take us down to this level uh which i said was at 79.65 and then down to this level over the medium term which is at 78.10 [00:41:39] Speaker 1: okay thanks ian uh yeah keep your uh questions uh coming for those of you joining us right now 11 minutes after later the u.s economy lost 23 000 jobs more driven by the government government jobs were lost so it's not all bad but uh labor market is is not doing excellently let's put it that way um we're talking about uh we'll cover more charts shortly we have a question here about uh macro about uh what um does the lower unemployment rate mean for policy moving forward well on it on its own it means uh i mean very on its own it means you have to raise interest rates but uh what it means for the fed which is now focused on inflation it means don't look at the labor market it's not important let's focus on inflation the bigger picture is more uh complex we have a low unemployment rate based on a low participation rate and we just received a surprising decline in wage growth um so i see there's some weakness in the u.s economy which adds to the case of leaving interest rates unchanged adds to the dovish case in addition to uh the net uh drop in jobs now the fear is again focus is inflation that's also a big sticking point political point in the united states groceries energy are all up um but other other things as well and we had a few signs this week of rising uh inflation next week's coverage is of the cpi for july we could get a bad situation uh of um on the one hand um job losses not wages are not rising but things uh costing more higher inflation that's called stagflation i think we're a bit far from that the but it's not good seeing job losses and lower wages and no signs of falling inflation okay that was from from me a bit about economics uh we have another question here just made a month salary in 20 seconds with gold that's great news we're happy for you gold has been quite exciting ian what do you please go [00:43:55] Speaker 2: ahead yeah uh we're gonna do it well you're going to explain why uh stock indices are moving higher on bad news i'm just uh just reminded just looking at at the us 30 uh which is ticked higher um after the the figures i'm still looking for downside pressure in here there's a pivot of 54 274 um and i'd like to sell it basically um for a move back down to these sort of levels so my question to you you know hey and obviously we don't normally do it this way um do you see a sustained rally in uh in u.s stock indices and if so why [00:44:37] Speaker 1: well uh yes i do see a sustained rally because of this mentality i think that's running since 2009 and was super pronounced also in kovid the global economy got stuck uh stocks collapsed and then it was just one of those bigger by the dip scenarios traders have an insect instinct to buy the dip it happened also last year with an april may liberation day big crash in stocks i also think that u.s president donald trump who has a significant influence on stock markets he cares about stock markets so if there's risk that let's say oil prices spike out of control he'll reach a deal uh to keep them in check even if that means uh making concessions to iran um so uh he doesn't have limitless um influence um but um he is gonna he's gonna do his best to keep stocks up again traders want to buy there's still lots of money uh sloshing around i think some of the valuations of ai companies are not that uh maybe realistic um i do find myself personally spending money on ai products but uh after i'm i'm culling uh unnecessary expenses and i think that's also what's going on in wall street now of looking at companies and their expenditure are they spending too much either as ai consumers or our ai producers the frontier labs having too much uh expenditure so i think we're going to see a bit of uh more uh violence in uh tech stocks we've seen that in korea more pronounced there uh but uh the general i mean i'm i'm still bullish on stocks this kind of report that we got today is the goldilocks thing is okay the us economy is not creating as many jobs even losing a bit of government jobs so maybe interest rates are lower so that's good for stocks all good no recession at this point uh once i mean hopefully not but if we get signs of recession it's going to be bad for your stocks and uh also uh and not necessarily bad for the u.s dollar because it will receive safe haven flows uh but that's another story again i don't foresee a recession at least until our next live coverage and uh probably a few more beyond uh beyond that uh so we're happy for our user that made a lot of money uh uh with the gold um yeah we have another question here since the loss of jobs are primary in the government i guess we can't attribute the job loss to the middle east issue no no i think it's uh general fluctuations in uh in hiring in the government there has no no doge like we had last year from elon musk uh killing jobs killing government jobs um no i don't see it related to the middle east um ian do you have any other chart you have on your mind that you've seen moving after this shocking [00:47:40] Speaker 2: nfp report no just uh really so just a stalling there in price action so we've had that sort of knee-jerk reaction gold is still sort of ticking up but it's sort of hanging around this 4363 uh level if you like silver remember i said there's bespoke resistance and it's just clipped that there at 90 64.96 so again i would still say that the biases is is bearish for for the us dollar um but my scenario as it was from the start of this it would be uh to sort of sell into rallies which would equate to buying dips in gold buying dips in euro dollar buying dips in in silver um the only thing that's sort of gone out of sync for me slightly is uh is the us 30 as i said um but um i'm i'm still bearish on that over the over the medium term [00:48:36] Speaker 1: okay um so we're 18 minutes after now from rolls uh we hardly talked today about the middle east when that's something i'm happy about uh that means at least no no extreme hostilities and that's good for for human lives uh but things are going on there and they do impact markets so the latest from the region is that a deal between iran and duman is about to be finalized that has been the headline since monday if i remember correctly now it's a deal between iran and duman not including the united states which is significant on its own but the idea there is to have some controls some agreed shipping lanes currently no collection of fees tolls tariffs you you name it um but basically um that's the that's the idea uh but it's not totally quiet iran reported firing at one ship uh the saudis have talked about attacks from houthis and from iranian-backed militias in iraq so it's not all settled the strait is not open um and let's just rewind to last week um israeli air force was also ready to attack iran then he said well we have a deal so we have oil prices rising on friday opening lower with the gap on monday maybe that could happen again um but um there's so much going on in the middle east with with fundamentals with headlines i wouldn't even call that fundamentals but what do the technicals say yeah and what what what do you see oil doing right now yeah as you said we've seen lots and lots of [00:50:18] Speaker 2: different gaps um we've got a gap here 86 92 from friday the 31st of july we've got gap here um at uh 91 27 from friday 24th of july gaps do have a tendency to be eventually closed i mean this screams out to me that we're in a an ending wedge pattern um that has an advice an eventual bias to break to the upside the support zone is just underneath the previous swing low so the previous swing low was around about 74.50 um the support zone is at 72.13 so there's basically two scenarios that i'm looking at and both of them are um a bullish over the over the long term um so either dip down to that level and then this sort of scenario which is a breakout retest after grabbing all this liquidity here or um let's just get to the cipher pattern or this uh come here uh or we produce this basically uh we suggest selling uh around about 80 50 81 35 but both both are um bullish over the over the medium term and this could just be a corrective bc leg the issue with this sort of shout out is that i prefer to sell to sell into this rally as opposed to buying to this dip um so yeah a bit of a mixed picture but both both scenarios buying dips for a long-term move to the upside [00:51:59] Speaker 1: got it okay yeah i think uh oil was sort of out of the radar for many traders in the first two months of the year at least uh and then the war broke out and things became a bit crazy over there and it has impact well beyond oil prices it impacts monetary policy is oil is energy so expensive that it crowds out and other expenditure and and creates a recession maybe in some countries but not in the developed world at least not now um currently just raises costs of other things what's called in monetary policy circles second round effects or in practical life well um the package i ordered from amazon is a bit more expensive not because uh that gadget is more expensive but because transport is uh costly uh because of energy and yeah it's it's been a fascinating year i think also forex has been doing a quite a comeback and um yeah we're talking about this comeback of uh foreign foreign exchange in the orange juice letter uh which i lead and i encourage you to uh subscribe to uh we also encourage you to subscribe to uh what are you reviewing now maybe it's on youtube uh so you won't miss um more live coverages um let's uh yeah talk about um remind everybody that we had a shocking non-farm payrolls report a loss of 23 000 jobs it had on lots of assets and there's quite a bit of action in the us dollar talking about [00:53:35] Speaker 2: currencies ian please go ahead with the dxy yeah so obviously as a swing trader i'm always looking at prime opportunities to get long or short um hence i i miss some moves but i also don't like sort of jumping on to waves that could potentially change so we've mentioned already the fact that um the euro against the us dollar is close to a 161.8 uh fib gold silver are also sort of hovering around those those levels so basically if i was going to short um well if i am going to short dxy over the next couple of days where where would i sell it now remember we've got this confluence zone down here at 97 80 um and then we've got a 261.8 extension level at 97 uh 61 so medium term target so sort of just breaking down into shorter time frames that would suggest that we have a pivot just underneath the previous uh swing low so the previous swing low 99.11 that would suggest a pivot at 99 the figure um and what can happen is just go down grab a bit liquidity come up and then continue to move to the downside so over the next couple of days if we see the formation and markets do what they want to do i can only react to what they uh what they do um is basically to then sell into that that second wave so if we stall i'm trying to say if we stall now uh with all of those different sort of pivots fib extensions then i believe it would just give an opportunity to get uh short of the dollar but at a better level uh 99.35 99.55 so quite a tight uh upside barrier uh that's going to be that's going to work for the next two days so obviously with friday so monday tuesday trading i'd look to sell into into dollar rallies [00:55:35] Speaker 1: okay looking good um yeah and um before we move on to talking about uh pound dollar a currency close to you ian well you use it every day um then um i just want to say that uh looking at the at the figures again they had quite an impact on interest rate expectations we it moved from 50 50 for rate hike or no rate hike in september to two-thirds uh odds for rate hike according to uh poly market so yeah that's good news for stocks again bad it the news is bad enough to to prevent a rate hike but not bad enough to stoke fear and panic uh so a bit of us dollar weakness and one of the winners um in terms of the bullish winners is a pound dollar cable any anything you see there ian um of interest [00:56:35] Speaker 2: what levels are again it was the same scenario i had with um euro dollar in the fact that i wanted to buy at lower levels so this morning i had um at this channel formation on basically uh and i was looking at buying into a dip uh at lower levels obviously knee-jerk reaction what's happened in um in the dollar index that's not uh that's not come to fruition uh what has happened is we've moved to the upside restored near the previous swing high um i've got a resistance zone up here at 136 the figure so i think what we're going to do is again sort of a period of consolidation um but then a breakout to the upside uh to achieve uh the target level at 136 uh it's a bullish bias the support levels intraday support levels now one for 1.3483 on 1.3449 [00:57:41] Speaker 1: bullish okay got it uh bullish yeah we have a question here on oil refineries uh let me get that talked about oil uh just now due to a shortage capacity of oil refineries we have expensive gasoline and diesel for months even if the price of oil drops does this mean we'll have a global inflation wave like in 2022 uh there are quite a few factors there so i wouldn't just put that on refineries uh to give some context and ref refining capacity is under strain due to all the changes that the crisis in the gulf created so you would think okay we have less oil uh floating around uh and uh markets uh in the middle east and that would impact uh have a negative impact on uh so refineries would have just less work to do and everything would be okay right but it's a bit more complex than that and um we have uh what happens in practice is that um we uh ukraine bombarded russian refineries and that lowers refining capacity from the entire world yes russian oil and um distilled products like gasoline diesel um still come from russia to to some extent and um another factor is that um because of all the rewiring of the global system or oil coming out of u.s reserves um saudi arabia pumping out oil through different uh through the pipeline the east west pipeline things have become more complicated in the world of refineries but so yes the answer is uh final products gasoline diesel jet fuel are probably going to remain more expensive for longer and the question is i don't think it's going to be like 2022 but the question is will these higher prices affect other things so of course uh they will propagate but to what extent um i think it's a long process like with tariffs um but i don't think it's going to be an inflation wave like in 2022 the world has learned to adapt uh much better than in the past i hope this answers uh the question um yen any comments on that how are petrol prices in the uk right now hideous [01:00:13] Speaker 2: uh no i mean i always um just relate it to how much it i always run the car until it's got the red light on um and then and then go fill it up so um i don't i've not seen a massive change um i think i used to used to cost like 62 pounds for a full tank i think it's like 68 pounds for a full tank now so yeah it's it's 10 up but it's not astronomical um but yeah the general cost of living is is a fortune in the uk um um it's had a knock-on effect to to groceries and and stuff like that so um and we've just had another hike in our you know gas and electric which was uh which was quite nice so the government took off the cap uh a few weeks ago so yeah i need my trading to make more money just so that i can survive [01:01:06] Speaker 1: uh yeah uh here in barcelona the big talk uh for quite a few years is the cost of living about the cost of living is mostly related to uh living i mean rent prices and uh and buying homes which has become really tough and if we have fewer young people able to rent homes in the city the city loses part of its charm uh so um yeah but also everything else is more expensive last weekend i went to the mountains with five friends and we shared one small car uh so it was both ecological and economical um and uh yeah my back hurt afterwards but uh yeah we have three more questions of course about gold uh so is gold going to keep pushing upwards can we expect uh interest rates to an interest rate rate cut in 2026 so before ian we'll take a small look a quick look at the gold uh price i will say i do not expect an interest rate cut in 2026 inflation is still too high at least in the us at least in the uk i think interest rates could even rise in the us at least maybe here in the eurozone maybe in other places so weak jobs report today um could be a one-off and even if it's not a one-off um the fed currently the the fmc leans more hawkish three members dissented in favor of of raising interest rates both in the us and in the uk so um it'll take time to turn the boat uh to the ship towards uh cutting interest rates and uh ian uh can you give us an update on gold and how it reacted to the non-farm perils [01:02:50] Speaker 2: yeah so all of those sort of sinking charts if you like but by by the way i don't mean sinking as in i mean sort of correlated uh charts um they're all sort of doing as we sort of expected so the four the 161.8 extension level at 4363 that's gathering some um sort of profit taking but all that happens is that we normally just see some sidewards movement like i said intraday support is at 4277 4271 but i wouldn't expect to get down to those levels um and as we possibly consolidate sidewards uh in a fourth wave then these these support levels they do move up okay so obviously there's a pivot here uh previous high becomes um was was resistance become support that's a 4295 so there's going to be there's going to be a lot of support levels there's going to be a lot of places where um traders look to buy into this this corrective leg over the medium term um and of course we haven't talked about sort of um time expiry or or or whatever on um i know we've said 2026 but that's um another four months i think over the short term and you know going into the end of this month um and that is the end of this month which is september obviously um sorry next month then i think we could uh we could exhaust there's there's there's a target zone here uh between 4552 and 4620. so immediate bias is negative medium term swing swing is uh is positive uh for gold but gonna gonna get chopped around for the next couple of days probably [01:04:43] Speaker 1: yeah yeah it's gonna be fascinating and uh yeah uh it's time to wrap up let's talk about what we had today we had high expectations for non-form parallels to trigger volatility and i think it exceeded at least my expectations so non-form parallels came out at a loss a loss in negative 23 000 jobs in the us in july expectations stood on 80 000 and real ones were just a bit lower but i think nobody expected a negative figure and these came on top of downwards revisions worth 103 000 so not good news news on that front um but um we did have a surprising drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent it's explained by two reasons the participation drop rate dropped from for 61.5 to 61.4 percent and it's always important to remember that these are two separate surveys the headline nfp and the unemployment rate uh figure that markets like is the drop in wage growth so only 0.1 percent monthly and 3.2 percent yearly both below uh expectations and uh all in all um expectations for the fed to raise interest rates dropped according to polymarket from 50 50 to only um well a third in favor and six and two-thirds against so it's quite a notable move we had uh quite a few interesting moves in charts us dollar down uh stocks up gold up substantial movements um and quite directional um and um yeah this is time uh uh to also say that our next live coverage is just around the corner and it's the figure that moves the fed and markets most it's cpi u.s inflation on tuesday we begin at the same time hopefully lots of excellent uh price action um ian uh you [01:06:45] Speaker 2: have a few words uh to say to wrap up to for our viewers uh it's been interesting as always uh love the macro um overlay because um as you know i'm not very good at macro economics um i think um the big picture is is pretty clear um we could consolidate talking about cpi you know we could consolidate it's summer markets we could consolidate all the way into wednesday's cpi um in the you know as the dollar decides to to to pause basically um so yeah um we've obviously got the weekend and then uh markets have a tendency to be slow on monday and tuesdays um over the over the summer period so yeah um it's been an interesting coverage like you say a bit of a shock figure i think you've um diagnosed uh what's uh what's going on there really well so yeah thanks yeah for that and just be safe out there just remember look for break levels look for decent r uh risk reward and and and don't outstay [01:07:52] Speaker 1: you're welcome yeah okay uh don't forget to subscribe to our youtube channel where you can see uh videos educational market videos from ian uh excellent uh you'll get an excellent understanding of this in-depth technical analysis and also from other colleagues at fx street sign up to the orange juice newsletter which i lead and yes the cpi will be on wednesday i wanted to come earlier because of all this excitement we we had today uh but we'll be with you when the data comes out and that'll be uh wednesday and we love your questions keep them well keep them for wednesday because we have to go now so thanks for joining the fx street non-front payrolls live coverage and see you next time thank you ian thank you yay thanks guys for tuning up appreciate it yeah my pleasure and that's it for now goodbye