US CPI (June Inflation) Reaction: DXY, Gold Price, and Forex Pairs Today

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: markets the middle east wars is going to testify tech stocks are falling but we will at least try to keep our focus on today's all-important u.s inflation release it's expected to show some kind of a cool down we'll talk about that shortly but first let me present ian coleman who is back and will be handling this uh live coverage how are you doing ian i'm very well yo hey good to be here with you again great and uh yeah we'll uh cover a chart your questions are more than welcome uh maybe we'll start with uh talking a bit about um the the event itself what are we expecting the fx street calendar is pointing to a small cool down in in inflation so we'll start from the headline because well americans do drive cars and do eat food like all of us so uh we're expecting a drop of 0.1 monthly and uh 3.8 percent year-over-year which is lower than 4.2 percent but markets and the fed we all focus on uh core inflation core is expected at 0.2 percent which is relatively low your monthly sorry and the year-over-year is expected to come down to uh 2.8 percent so that would be good news for markets which need a bit of good news what what do you see and how are the charts what do the charts tell you about uh about the mood in markets what what's going on in stocks for example yeah i mean we've [00:01:27] Ian Coleman: had um a decent sort of move to risk off um but you know you look at the dollar index move sidewards moving into this event so it's not really sort of dollar base we have seen some pretty erratic price movements in um in stock indices uh but we've seen a tip up on you know in in gold this morning as the dollar index has corrected lower so that could be a little bit of a little bit of a giveaway um i mean considering what's going on again uh in uh the um conflict between uh the us and iran you would expect to see well i would expect to see stronger sell-off uh in stock indices and we're not really seeing that i did see that trump in his latest um sort of live chat if you like did turn around and said yeah obviously there's still uh room for negotiations and i think the market i wouldn't say the market's getting bored with what's going on at the moment um but they are taking in in in their stride obviously we've seen a an aggressive move higher uh in uh us crude oil and that's still continuing this morning but really with regards to sort of stock indices uh it's been been pretty muted um so yeah i mean the first chart they'll want to look at and we're gonna i'm gonna talk about risk on risk off a fair bit before we get into the figure so the first chart that i want to look at is the nasdaq and i've actually got three products that sort of say you know we could see a recovery rally um but then it's going to be short-lived so nasdaq um this is the four-hour chart we were virtually pit perfect on this last move to the downside to the 78.6 pullback level and that was from this uh upward rally and that sort of screams out that we could be building a cipher pattern now we're in this leg this is the bc leg and this is always the hardest leg to predict but why what i do like about the bc leg is that if you do get a short entry then you know where where to place your stop loss because if it goes above this previous swing high over here which was around about three thirty thousand seven hundred and twenty then the then the pattern gets negated now i've got a resistance level at thirty thousand three hundred and eighty um and i've got intraday support at twenty nine thousand two hundred and sixteen and we can see we're holding above that at the moment so correlated studies that i'm seeing at the moment suggest that we could get a good print so basically what i'll be looking for obviously if we do get a good print then there's positive stock indices um we could move up and then basically form something like this over the medium term so that potential rally on the back of a good print um which would be a low print obviously up towards this resistance level maybe then escalation again with regards to uh the straight of the moves and uh and everything that's going on uh in the middle east and then and then eventual uh move to the downside so yeah looking at my different charts and always like to get a bias going into the figures it suggests that we are going to get a uh a better print in other words a lower print [00:04:48] Speaker 1: yeah let's hope so we all want lower prices especially the things we consume most energy and and food but we also was stock markets need lower interest rates we did have uh korean stocks crash the most notable stock there was sk hynix which tumbled yesterday by something like 15 percent the worst drop ever just after a successful listing also on the american market but as you said yen uh markets seem now a bit more optimistic uh at least in the us towards the open and uh one reason is that president trump in many cases he escalates to deescalate so i'll quick uh talk about what's going on the latest uh um president trump announced that he is reinstating the blockade on iranian ports it's an escalation in addition uh he talked about doing some uh charging some money he called it a reimbursement of 20 percent that's much higher than what the iranians want to charge and uh we learned today that he already notified congress a few days ago that fighting with iran has resumed so all that is uh worsening the mood in markets and uh pushing uh oil prices higher but uh maybe there's room for negotiations in many cases uh it gets darkest uh before uh dawn uh we have um yeah quite a bit of questions and also assets here uh to cover um yeah yeah maybe we can go with um uh the us dollar index to give us sort of a big picture if yeah [00:06:24] Ian Coleman: yeah okay yeah um i'm just going to briefly mention only because these are the sort of setups that are giving me my bias and then from that i can get a bit of a bias on uh on on the dollar index so this is new zealand yen uh elliott wave would suggest we're currently moving higher uh within a fifth wave so again that says risk off oh sorry risk on over the short term but then maybe in line with that nasdaq coming lower when it's when we see risk off again uh and the other chart that i have which sort of screams um that we're going to see lower levels uh over the medium term and this is one that i don't normally trade but um we did talk about this in our live chart coverage uh last week um we talked about this level 8355 uh and levels these upside rallies just keep on getting sold into around that level um if it breaks back into the wedge then it's probably invalidated so this is actually my favorite setup out of everything at the moment getting short of the cac uh and trying to target all the way down here at 7390. so that brings me on to the dollar index a little bit of a waffle there with regards to um risk on risk off and this is what i'm seeing in the dollar index so the medium term charts and this is one thing that we should reiterate before we go any further is that the um medium term base oh the medium term bias for the dollar index is still bullish so if we do see a move to the downside similar to uh risk on risk off with um the nasdaq new zealand yen and and the cac then if we do see risk off then a move to the downside should only be temporary like the move to the upside in those products should only be temporary as well so what's happened we've seen this consolidation going into today today's figure um prime resistance is at 101.15 i've got to just say these are this is a capital dot com dollar index chart your charts might have different uh data um and the prime support is down here at 99.64 which is also um a 78.6 pullback of this level so basically i think we're going to get choppy price action over the short term the long term bias is bullish but i think really this would be the prime sort of setup um over sort of the coming days so selling into rallies and then buying into dips obviously if uh the dollar index does move to the downside then it gives scope for um a corrective move higher uh in gold and we will cover gold got a lot of correlation going on in gold at the moment we can actually do quite a good time frame breakdown in that uh in that product [00:09:30] Speaker 1: yeah and you mentioned uh some bullishness in the us dollar and that is a result of first and foremost the um worsening intensifying hostilities in the middle east the effective closure of the straight of vermouth that announcement by iran over the weekend the us blockade afterwards uh the amount of ships has ground to a halt over the critical waterway oil prices are higher that means that everything that is transported uh uses the energy and that means every all the other goods are higher and that is the fear that if inflation is rising in the in general then the fed will have to increase interest rates and we have here bond markets uh pricing and now a 36 chance of the fed raising rates in july it was only 10 percent just a few days ago and the war in the middle east is one contributor if we compare it to uh betting markets to prediction markets on poly market here we have basically the same figures so we're talking about rising chances of an interest rate hike standing at 35 percent according to the latest read at poly market we'll visit it after the news comes another thing i want to mention in that background is that um we had um fed governor christopher waller who was also appointed by trump but back in his first term and he talked about um maybe a need to raise raise rates if core inflation comes up uh above expectations today core inflation again is expected to come out in 20 minutes alongside headline inflation and the figures we're looking for are not that high 0.2 percent on the monthly and not 2.8 percent on the yearly and another thing we'll talk about soon but we'll also talk about gold um is that kevin warsh uh fed chair will testify uh appear before congress in um an hour and a half after the data comes out he doesn't want to give forward guidance but he'll be asked questions and he's under oath and he will have to answer okay the asset you've been waiting for ian are you ready with gold yeah we're gonna do um a time frame breakdown so i'm [00:11:44] Ian Coleman: actually doing going to go reverse here so i'm going to start at a shorter time frame and then i'm going to actually move up time frames um because i think it makes more sense for from what's going on at the moment um so obviously this is the weekend gap so we've got a gap open at four four thousand one hundred and twenty dollars now gaps have a tendency to be closed there is data out there that you can look at but it's about 70 chance of being closed i think within the first week um and we are starting to see a little bit of a move to the upside we're in this corrective channel formation we've made a slightly disjointed um inside cypher pattern uh which gives it a mild intraday and i'm saying intraday uh bias to move to the upside so 4104 is a uh daily barrier 4153 is a more medium term barrier then we've got this gap open so we've basically got this confluent zone which i believe would be a target area for uh gold balls and obviously for that to uh to be achieved then we would need to see a move lower in the dollar index i believe so if we go to this time frame hopefully i'm not confusing everybody too much uh this is the daily chart so basically what i'm trying to get over now is the fact that this potential move to the upside looks to be corrective okay the the bias as far as i can see is still to the downside now this is the daily chart what has happened um on this chart is just a sidewards rectangle now weikoff theory will call this accumulation what happens in accumulation is that smart smart money basically accumulates um positions and then they have a tendency to break it to the downside once it's they've pushed it far enough to the downside they then reverse it and it moves back up so we've got this large channel formation um and we've got a projected support at 3620. now you know you can note that i'm not using the support directly down from uh today's candle and the reason i'm not using the support directly down from today's candle is because it takes time to get there you can't expect gold just to fly straight down to 3620. so you've got to take sort of time frames into consideration and that's my projected support level if we take this off which is the channel what do we have this then turns it into an ending wedge pattern so an ending wedge pattern has an eventual bias to break to the upside so even though the daily chart is saying yeah okay accumulation then the potential to move down over the long term i think we're going to get a break back up um so 3620 is very important over the medium term if we go to this chart let's move it up okay what's happening well that this inside pattern is what we've already seen in uh the four hour chart and i'll just quickly write it in so that's the inside pattern i'm sorry about the same colors we'll get rid of that so that's the inside pattern that we're seeing on the four hour chart this would suggest that we've completed wave one we then might move higher in wave two to that aforementioned resistance zone four thousand one hundred and five four thousand one hundred and fifty two we then move impulsively to the downside hit the 161.8 percent come back retest what was support then becomes resistance but the most important factor looking at all of this correlation from the daily the eight hour and the four hour chart is the fact that we've got a projected 261.8 extension level from current lows at 3627 and that lines up with the base of that wedge formation [00:15:56] Speaker 1: all right so you got the full comprehensive gold analysis um let's see how it moves after the figures come out i think it'll be a fascinating uh release we have 14 minutes to go a quick question here somebody asks uh will comberts bank says that historically the usd tended to lose ground on inflation data uh days is that true well it's true when inflation is weaker than expected but it isn't true when inflation uh smashed estimates and that also happened a few times i think that markets will move strongly uh the one of the reasons is what's coming afterwards warsh uh and fed chair he is focused on inflation in his first press conference after his first trade decision he talked almost exclusively about inflation hardly uh didn't say anything about uh about employment uh we heard waller talk about that too markets are focused on that the middle east moves inflation so i think it's going to be quite a big reaction to the cpi report and um yeah and the big driver we know from the previous uh previous oil crisis that wasn't that long ago when russia invaded ukraine some four years ago that the rise in oil prices propagated to other goods and uh it can impact uh interest rates and policy so let's talk a bit about uh oil what's going on with the most important commodity and what do you see on your charts well [00:17:32] Ian Coleman: yeah obviously this week we've seen a decent move to the upside um oh yeah we have seen the stalling in price action there is a sort of a a projected confluence zone if you like here um what i do like about this chart is the fact that we're getting indecision going into um the rate decision we've got support this is intraday support by the way at 75 dollars and ten dollars sorry 75 dollars and ten cents we've still got this gap open down here uh which is at 71.92 cents like i said sometimes gaps do get closed quite quickly um what i like about this sort of projection is that i've got a resistance level 102 dollars and six cents i've got a 261.8 extension level for this potential wave patent 104 104 dollars and 24 cents so quite a nice confluence zone to the upside there and also i mean if we look at the 161.8 projection it really lines up with this previous zone so what was support then becomes resistance uh for a third wave target so um what i believe is going to happen we're either going to see some stalling in price action potential sort of consolidation maybe um again that would be a distribution zone as far as why costs are concerned or a dip lower uh within a second wave before we see an aggressive move to the upside and of course this sort of goes in sync with the stock indices the risk on risk off so if we see risk on at the moment then obviously oil should move lower then when we see the risk off we should then see the rest of this sort of impulsive move to the upside and going back to cipher pattern formations you know you'd be looking at something like this with as i've already said you know this wave being the the hardest wave to uh to predict or trade but also the wave that offers the best risk reward as far as uh trade setups [00:19:47] Speaker 1: are concerned yeah got it yeah let's talk a bit about the middle east with 10 minutes to go until the u.s inflation figures so we talked a bit about what's going on uh but what's what's next uh there are a few options of course there's escalation in this round of of action military action kinetic action um the street of rumus is closed and the u.s attacks military uh installations in iran and iran attacks u.s bases in the gulf what happened in the intense part of the war in march was a bit worse for energy iran also attacked oil installations including knocking out part of uh qatar's uh gas city in asla fun and also hitting pipelines so this things could still get worse we're currently in a situation where uh some of the oil managed to get out of the persian gulf some of it circumvents the gulf by going either by the west the east west pipeline in saudi arabia or through um the united arab emirates the fujera port which is outside the persian gulf that still doesn't cover for all of global oil and once again these installations can be uh hit um but there are other scenarios as we said trump can escalate to de-escalate and in that case maybe oil prices will fall but i fear that there's a scenario where trump talks about um also uh getting into iran's game of charging money at iranian uh at the strait of vermuz maybe he'll do some deal with iran that they'll do some profit sharing maybe with oman as well and uh that would permanently raise oil prices um currently as you see in this chart here courtesy of bloomberg uh traffic in the strait of vermuz crashed when the war broke out and uh hardly managed to recover something similar happened when the houthis attacked uh um cargo ships in uh in the red sea very tricky situation and again policy makers fear it could propagate into inflation we have inflation figures in eight minutes time and keep those excellent questions coming uh yeah we have uh questions uh on um on euro dollar maybe that'll be your next uh chart to show us what's going on there [00:22:13] Ian Coleman: ian yeah i think it's quite interesting it's not showing i mean that's sort of my bias for the us dollar is is to the downside this sort of correlates but doesn't sink quite as quite as well as other products if you like um i've got an intraday resistance level at 1.1415 we've got this expanding wedge pattern so basically prices has widened if you like as as the uh the weeks have gone on this has a tendency to break to the upside now i've got a resistance level at 1.1470 and this uh has a measured move target of 1.1473 so again sort of correlating quite quite well um we if we pull back within a second wave then that would suggest cipher pattern analysis would suggest that we're going to build a crab pattern and that will complete at 1.1513 so my preferred stance for this product would be to buy into a dip back into the supply zone which is around about 113.90 but like i said this level is essential it needs to hold that level uh over the figures um so that would actually suggest sort of a pop down in euro strengthening dollar and then a reversal so if we go back to this chart i've got time frames mixed up a little bit then that would suggest that we do complete this pattern before we move move lower so yeah we've we're starting to see a move down or we have seen a move down uh in the dollar index and the run-ups of the figures but i'm just wondering if we're gonna we're gonna complete this first before uh we get a a dip to the downside got it okay we have six [00:24:07] Speaker 1: minutes to go until the u.s inflation figures uh come out reminder they're expected to cool down cool down on the measures that the measure that matters most uh core cpi cool down i mean rise by only 0.2 percent monthly and decelerate from 2.9 to 2.8 um on the yearly basis the ranges of forecasts are quite tight so any any surprise could matter quite a lot uh to markets and that's what we're here for markets are already on edge with for various reasons and uh yeah we will tackle another uh favorite now we talked about gold and uh now uh what's going on in the little brother little sister silver what's going [00:24:55] Ian Coleman: on over there under pressure it shows a different pattern for me um so obviously if i wanted to get uh longer dollars then this is probably just before the figures then this is probably a product that i'd i'd look at um it doesn't sit into my my sort of trade system if you like so um i won't be training it personally i should say that um but again cypher pattern analysis suggests we'll build a butterfly formation at 53.45 there's intraday resistance here which is quite tight at 58.25 and the overnight rally uh which was about six o'clock this morning actually got sold into at this level the next upside barrier is all the way up here at sixty dollars and thirty five cents and that would for me that would blow this pattern out because the cd leg is supposed to be quite impulsive so yeah you'd need for me you needed a need a strong move lower from current levels uh to uh to complete that formation got it okay so we talked about gold we talked about [00:26:00] Speaker 1: gold we talked about silver euro dollar u.s dollar index oil uh just a reminder uh we're in a sticky situation in markets uh they're now attempting to recover hoping that trump has only escalated to de-escalate or maybe well maybe tech stocks in korea sold off too much and it's an opportunity to buy and maybe these inflation scares um as reflected in bond markets are maybe not so bad um that is the current current current sort of shift in mood you can call it bottoming out but everything is super temporary in these markets where so many things are happening all at once we have four minutes to go until the next um until the data comes out us cpi thanks for joining us and for uh sending us all these questions um we uh welcome more questions perhaps we have the time to squeeze in one more before uh the data comes out again this is a reminder of what's expected this is the fx street calendar three minutes to go and we're expecting a cool down of sorts um yeah uh we have we have questions about uh crypto uh but maybe we'll go first uh before we go into bitcoin perhaps we'll go into pound yen with uh the japanese authorities now suggesting maybe uh they'll um allow uh tax-free buying of japanese bonds and that has helped provide some stability there what do you see on pound the end on the dragon yen yeah again this sort of [00:27:35] Ian Coleman: screams risk off to me but that we could still see an upside rally before before sellers return uh so we completed this crab formation it was slightly out of sync it was 217.50 uh was the projection and we actually made a 218 uh the figure uh top and then we've moved down we look to be forming a head and shoulders pattern so obviously the right shoulder here but i've actually got intraday intraday resistance at 217 point sorry 217.75 so this would be for me that would be the prime short entry um if it breaks this level which is 216.51 this is the neckline of the head and shoulders formation then that would suggest that the sell-off is already uh underway we've got an inside wedge here so you can see this wedge formation normally a finishing pattern for an elliot wave for um count um it's got a measured move target of 214.63 so at the moment i'd say we're sort of mid-range on an intraday basis but um the preferred stance for me would be to sell into gains like i said if it breaks this uh then uh this outlook is probably uh been negated and why do i say the preferred stance is to sell into gains because you know if you're playing the head and shoulders and you look at risk reward factors i mean 7r it's it's a very high risk trade but it's also uh very high risk setups or reward setups yeah yeah and [00:29:13] Speaker 1: i'll have to cut you off it we have 30 seconds to go until the data comes out uscpi we're expecting we're focusing on core cpi what's expected at 0.2 percent on the monthly one and uh 2.8 which is a deceleration on the yearly one okay 15 seconds to go uh we thank everybody for coming here and for your great questions let's see the data is expected to come out in now around five seconds so i'll let the chart say its words below expectations u.s inflation misses estimates only zero percent month over month instead of 0.2 expected and 2.6 percent year over year substantially below 2.8 always flying yeah so what do you see on [00:30:04] Ian Coleman: your charts yeah it's just it's just popped up um what 50 on on the back of that uh that that uh that news so yeah we got lower than expected um we'll have a look at all the stock indices and all the rest of it at the moment we're moving into that that barrier that 4105 4153 uh potential supply area so yeah an [00:30:28] Speaker 1: aggressive move uh u.s inflation u.s inflation misses on all figures we have uh headline inflation a loss of 0.4 percent month over month remember these are figures for june when oil prices were going down and the the yearly figure is only 3.5 percent a big fall from 4.2 percent below expectations of 3.8 and core cpi what matters for markets only zero percent uh well no change on the monthly basis and 2.6 percent yearly which is good news let's see if pa poli market betting markets have reacted i don't see any movement do i need to refresh this let's see if expectations have changed instantly yes a small drop 32 percent chance for rate hike according to uh punters here oh only 16 percent now we're seeing it live instead of 35 percent moving markets yeah yeah this moves faster than what we have here which is uh uh bond market pricing uh we have uh um some kind of delay here so uh it seems like at least bettors on um polymarket are pricing out pricing out the chances of rate hike which had increased in recent days following the rise in oil prices and some hawkish comments from fed governor waller so for those joining us right now u.s inflation figures badly missed expectations well it's not bad it's good news for uh americans who uh are seeing uh slower price rises and it eases pressure of the fed to raise interest rates everybody we thank you for joining us and your questions are more than welcome ian uh what what do you see uh what do you see on the charts maybe we'll start yeah i think dollar index it's really [00:32:17] Ian Coleman: important to have a look at this dollar index now to if you if you're not in the move then i i'd suggest personally that you you you don't automatically just jump on this uh this this rallying gold in the move that lower in uh in dxy the bias intraday bias is still bearish but only to this channel base okay we've got a confluence zone here it's around about 100 the figure it's 61.8 percent and it's the channel base so cypher pattern analysis analysis if this plays out and it's playing out pretty well from what we uh predicted before uh the off if you like um would suggest where are you arrow uh would suggest that we see this okay but you really want to be trading if you're looking at shorting the dollar now you know it could be could be limited think about the uh gold the upside in gold could be limited movements everywhere yeah we've got correlation so really down second entry to the short side uh for a move down towards 99.64 so at the moment dollar index still looks bearish but it could be [00:33:24] Speaker 1: short-lived that's what i'm trying to get out yeah yeah and uh well i have an interesting comment on the chart uh in the chat sorry somebody suggesting it's a good time for the for japan's ministry of finance to direct the bank of japan to intervene we're seeing a dollar yen drop for me this is a normal movement it's down less than half a percent on the day we're seeing a bigger movement in dollar swiss for example or in euro dollar uh but yes uh if anybody in tokyo is awake now it's around um something like um well uh midnight after midnight over there so maybe this is a good uh opportunity to push dollar yen down when it's falling uh so uh well if anybody's listening to us in tokyo uh we have to comment here uh but um yeah so for those joining us big movement big surprise the the inflation figures in the us came out substantially below expectations i would say out of ranges so no change on the monthly uh core inflation and only 2.6 percent uh euro for a year in core inflation the figure that matters [00:34:34] Ian Coleman: ian do you have another uh chart for us uh yeah i was just i was actually looking back at nasdaq to see uh how aggressive uh the move to the upside has been i mean percentage terms it looks quite good it's not super aggressive i mean we're up just over one percent uh from sort of pre pre announcement um i'm still bullish i'm still bullish up to around 303 80 so i think risk on could be prolonged um with regards to sort of stock indices but i'm not quite sure about uh how for how far uh the dollar index and [00:35:10] Speaker 1: gold can move to the move to the downside yeah yeah quite a quite a movement there and uh we had fears [00:35:20] Ian Coleman: sorry go ahead sorry i'm said i'm talking to myself i said i better have a look at bitcoin [00:35:25] Speaker 1: oh yeah yeah we had a question on on bitcoin uh beforehand uh just uh yeah before that we'll we'll mention that um um we have a question here is it good news or bad news for wash good news because well president trump nominated him uh to uh cut interest rates and if the data supports it well why not i mean it's all justified it's all aligned and um and uh yeah and and let's let's move to bitcoin we had just before the data came out a question about that and uh ian what's going on in cryptocurrencies are you seeing them react [00:36:00] Ian Coleman: yeah we're seeing a move to the upside on uh on an intraday basis um i've i've gone out to the weekly chart because we did talk about this last week and it is really important uh to look at these different time frames to get shorter time frame moves or try and move uh or try and get your trades aligned uh with what's happening over uh over the big picture if you like 61.8 percent 57 525 uh we've moved higher from that zone so we are within this corrective bc leg somebody asked the other day said what's the long-term forecast yeah i can see it going down to 40 000 over the long term but i mean this is sort of probably moving into next year uh and we could see a sustained move higher within this uh this bc leg on an intraday basis or on a short-term basis um let's go to all the way down here um i had support here today uh 62 2096 and i see resistance up here uh at 68 524 so i think the next stop for um bitcoin over the medium term is up around this uh this 68 uh tag and of course 70 000 has been pivotal in uh bitcoin forever so uh you know targets traders might target the big figure as well good we're seven minutes after [00:37:24] Speaker 1: the release the u.s inflation figures badly missed expectations and we're seeing massive movements in markets uh massive movement to the downside in the u.s inflation and sorry in the u.s dollar and uh we have a comment here uh that we might have a massive rate cut and the global recession well uh markets prefer the fed to cut interest rates in general but uh they want a lower uh borrowing costs because inflation is lower not because the economy is is doing poorly so far so good with the u.s economy growing a lot thanks to massive ai investments and the other developments uh over there and um so i see if they do cut interest rates again according to betting markets there's a 90 chance of no change now down sorry up from 64 percent before the data if they will be leaving rates unchanged or even cutting them it it'll be now for good reasons and markets would rise and uh yeah we have um well everybody likes uh gold it always shines so uh we have a question here from uh somebody in the chat asking a bit more elaborate after cpi is gold more of a sell or buy still below 4 120 resistance for 100 153 uh well ian what what levels are are you uh seeing on on your uh charts yeah i'm gonna flip back to gold [00:38:52] Ian Coleman: i just want to talk about system trading okay 8355 i keep on talking about this in um in the cac um that spiked to the upside you know we've seen a decent move up in u.s stock indices but all that's happened is we've just clicked that level again and moved to the downside it's a point of control we've done a video on that we're going to be doing more videos educational videos on our youtube channel go and have a look at it points of control are magnets for institutional money um and like i said you know the bias is still to the downside on that let's get to shorter time frames so let's go back to and i think it's important if you're trading gold you've got to have uh dxy uh as an overlay okay you need to be you need to be looking at both charts not simultaneously you can flick through uh from one to the other but if you're going to be trading gold then obviously if the dollar index moves down to this level and put an alarm on your chart um you know or or monitor it when it gets down to that level there is a very good chance that gold will then uh top out at least over the short term so like i said around about 100 the figure for dxy would then make me believe uh that gold my charts are a little bit slow today the gold will then top out so we're in the zone or we've hit 4104 like i said that's an intraday resistance it has clipped that you know scalpers are probably using that uh to get get short for short term uh but i think we'll still close the gap and i think we'll probably get to 4 153. i would then look at potential shorts around that level [00:40:41] Speaker 1: okay so there you have it on uh on gold we have lots of questions coming big dramatic move in um in markets we have a question here on spacex we have a question on kiwi dollar a kiwi dollar stands out because uh because the the reserve bank of new zealand raised rates and also uh had the hawkish message to send so it stands out against the dollar and against other currencies which are suffering such as uh the swiss franc uh but um yeah uh we have the chart of spacex and uh uh it's now trading at around 140 pre-market that's super close to the ipo level of 135 which i think is when we'll have alarm bells ringing in wall street okay if the world's largest ipo from the world's richest man cannot hold on to its inaugural price after one month hmm maybe we should doubt other ai trades maybe they've gone too far uh as we've seen now in south korea where indexes are falling very very uh sharply okay but let's switch to the kiwi dollar which is a standout i've been to that country many years ago and its beauty [00:41:54] Ian Coleman: is amazing what about the kiwi charts ian yeah i mean i'm still bullish on kiwi at the moment um obviously with we're seeing a power to the upside at the moment on positive uh new zealand dollar and obviously on negative um negative us dollar this is an eight hour chart okay so you've got to take that into consideration from moving from a one hour chart to an eight hour chart etc there's a 261.8 extension level here at uh 0.5895 um i would look for that because this is quite clean so wave one wave two wave three and then and then up in five so elliott wave uh analysis would suggest that we've got further to go but i wouldn't expect i'm still bearish on new zealand at higher levels hence the new zealand yen short but i wouldn't expect this to uh to extend past uh the 261.8 uh level uh intraday support is all the way down at 0.5731 39 so we're not going to uh we're not going to touch that today [00:43:03] Speaker 1: got it okay now we have another comment here about uh ai talking about um well uh lots of money flowing from mag 7 to semiconductors indeed um and they need to borrow yes they're spending a lot of money and lots of investment in data centers and everything lots of demonstrations against data centers it's a whole different story um yeah and so our commentary here says this fake ai build um won't last longer open ai and anthropic burn too much money yes they burn a lot of money but i i beg to disagree on on on on the well ai and the future i i use it a lot i see the productivity gains i can do much more i think it'll spread out i think in stock markets things will broaden they broaden from the magnificent seven which is a term that is not used that much to those semiconductor chips and i think all the other companies uh doing useful applications with ai uh will also thrive but maybe i'm uh uh tech tech optimist maybe too much uh we'll we'll know uh soon enough in any case um for those joining now us inflation figures crashed i don't think it's the ai productivity boom it's just a reaction to the big rises we've seen last time so uh core cpi monthly rose only zero percent not rose it stood it remained flat and um we had uh uh core cpi yearly 2.6 also below expectations um yeah we'll talk very shortly about dollar yen but first we'll answer a question here uh regarding the next big event in markets which is uh the testimony by kevin warsh will he sound more dovish after this data uh my instinct is yes because the data is really really dovish really uh inflation is not that high as core inflation which is not impacted directly from the middle east and what can markets expect from him right after this big risk on move triggered by well i think he said in sintra portugal a few weeks ago that inflation expectations are falling uh now uh he seems vindicated i think on the other hand he'll try to refrain from making big statements because he uh is against forward guidance it'll be hard when being quizzed or grilled by um by lawmakers but um yeah i think he'll he'll say it's it's a good piece of data we're waiting for more data and we'll we'll let you know in two weeks when we have the fed decision okay uh but in the meantime we have quite a bit of movement on mar in markets and uh we have uh dollar yen falling from those highs celebrations in tokyo falling yen what do you think if you were in tokyo now would you celebrate or not [00:45:59] Ian Coleman: yeah i think i'll be celebrating a little bit it might be short-lived um i mean this is a this this is a one hour chart there was prime uh resistance uh today at 162.58 we've obviously moved lower in front of that we talked about this in the discord channel this morning the fact that this is sort of a corrective channel formation a little bit of a mixed picture but we are moving down to that channel support we've got a weekly support level at 161.33 but because that's already been tested i think we will break down and we will get to this gartley formation which is at 160.94 remember obviously looking at the dollar what the dollar is doing at the moment there's also ample scope for sort of that sort of move we very rarely uh get one-way traffic so um yeah bearish short-term bearish but with a potential to bounce off the trendline support and then i'd watch for this target area at 160.94 that could actually stop the sell-off in uh in the us dollar against the japanese yen uh and somebody's actually asked aussie yen um i'm not going to waffle too much because uh as you can see i've got very very little uh on my charts uh with regards to this uh this cross all i will say is that the aussie uh i look at single currency baskets the aussie looked extremely overbought on a monthly basis a weekly basis a daily basis it highlighted 261.8 extension levels we did move lower but we have seen this correction to the upside i think when we get risk off this this this has the potential to collapse um on a short-term basis 113.18 is a is an upside barrier but i can't really get much in the way [00:47:48] Speaker 1: of patents to the downside um got it thanks okay we have more questions here uh asking us if we think that artificial uh general intelligence when uh the ai can uh think totally like humans will that impact markets yes i mean easy answer is yes but then there's another question is what exactly is the definition of agi and um when will it come and lots of other questions so i think it'll it's hard to know uh and the technology is undoubtedly developed uh fast um it's worth playing around it's also fun uh but and i think these companies are making money because other companies are paying them uh the frontier labs like anthropic open ai and the others uh so i think uh yeah it's moving in the right direction of course some people and businesses are left behind and data centers cause pollution so not everything is is rosy but uh yeah uh if i have to choose a camp i'll i'll choose that one um the the optimistic one once again we're some 20 minutes after the u.s inflation figures were amazingly soft which is good news let's see uh what bond markets are pricing now i'm refreshing this chart by um wow okay that's a change so according to cme uh bond markets now price price only a 16 chance of rate hike in uh in uh in july which is in two weeks time in comparison to uh something like 35 ahead of the release and um betting markets are around 80 percent well 18 percent chance of a hike so quite similar now they're aligned once again but betting markets jumped much much faster a few things to note about inflation uh yes the yearly figures are down but remember we had that government shutdown back in october november so we had the blank cpi read at least for october and distorted figures for november that's why the feds and likes to look at core pce we'll we'll see the exact figure uh the yearly figure um only in uh well in a few weeks but the encouraging news is that this flat read the zero percent change in core cpi monthly is the lowest since 2021 so the lowest since uh the big inflation of wave of 2021 2022 2023 began um okay we have more questions about uh gold do you see any changes in gold one reminder viewers where gold stands right now after the big jump yeah they just just a bit of profit taking [00:50:39] Ian Coleman: really um so the rally in the nasdaq which we've got on the screen at the moment you know it's uh there's a bit of profit taking but for me the bias is still to the upside um it would have to get through the days support which is 29 216 to turn bearish so i can't see that that's going to happen um also gold just the dollar index just to talk about what's happened there so this is the aggressive move to the downside again this is a bit of profit taking as far as i can see if this moves to too much further to the upside i think sellers will turn and push it down to this uh this level around about uh 100 the big figure uh before the day end uh and then we'll see this bounce to the upside so sort of using correlation it still says that we should get potentially uh more buying in um gold but like we said we did clip that first barrier or what was the high uh yeah 4104 so we flagged 4104 and 4104 was the uh was the top side at the moment which is quite nice um i still think we've got the potential to move into this zone as as the dollar uh hits that 61.8 pullback level and then choppiness basically over the next few days uh within this this corrective channel uh before we before we move to the downside remember the big picture the big picture is zero one two we're in a corrective second wave the only way that that corrective second wave gets negated is if it breaks above this uh this channel top sorry this previous swing high which comes in around about four thousand two hundred dollars good good okay well i'll jump to [00:52:27] Speaker 1: another quantity you have a question about uh why why oil is on the rise well um the middle east basically uh the straight of vermuse uh is effectively closed no traffic hardly any ships managed to pass by in the darker in the dark with their transponders off uran announced the straight is closed the u.s reinstated its blockade uh lots of fire exchanged between the sides u.s attacking mil iran military installations iran attacking ships and u.s american well u.s bases military bases in the gulf so quite a bit of action there in oil and um here uh yeah we have uh prices basically uh here i have a bit of bragging rights uh if you're reading the orange juice newsletter and you read what i wrote on july 6th that was last monday i wrote that it feels like uh oil prices have bottomed out well uh that happened what's next i don't know if my prediction will be right as well but i don't think at least they will come down very quickly um i think there will be some kind of a tolling system in the strait of vermuse eventually and in any case we have now over a hundred days of uh since the conflict began and no um no replenishing of strategic patrolling reserves so the situation is is bullish fundamentally for uh gold um okay do we have any any questions any more questions or we can begin uh wrapping up [00:54:06] Ian Coleman: i guess yeah i think well i think we've covered everything uh for technically um oil's just stalled at that 81.65 um projected uh first wave so again uh there's no change on it on a short-term basis there's a chance for a correction to the downside or a period of consolidation before we pop higher i think um i think um i think i think we've covered the dollar we've covered gold we've covered risk on risk off i think we've uh we've definitely covered all the bases today um i'll just like to say that it's been a pleasure um if you've not subscribed to our channel then please do when i'm talking about things like cypher patterns um points of control we've got a lot of educational videos in there that will help you understand what we're talking about on these uh on the live coverages uh we've also got the ecb rate decision uh on thursday the uh 23rd of july and that's gonna be at 12 gmt uh so please uh do come along and join us then and just to say if you're not uh signed up for yo he's orange juice newsletter then it's definitely my daily read and i believe you do one on saturday as well now you [00:55:21] Speaker 1: don't you on a you do a weekend read yes yes uh here the fx3 team prepares a weekend edition of the best articles published on fx street uh highlights so you can uh skim through and dive deeper into uh what's going on in the in the in the worlds of trading actionable content as always that's the focus here at fx street uh to get you up to speed to help you uh trade better help you uh pass that challenge if you're a prop trader and um yeah and we we also i mean enjoy interacting and we're super duper thankful for all your questions today uh we always have a funny meme um yeah one last question um what should we so should we wait for next pc uh made some changes to core pc calculation right uh well the advantage with the pc is it's inherently adaptive so let's say uh i eat a salad every day and and it includes tomatoes and cucumbers that's it boring salad so and now suddenly the prices of tomatoes jumped um so maybe some people will keep on eating the same salad but some will say okay i'll only eat cucumbers now uh so their basket of consumption uh changes and the pce adapts to these changes faster than cpi it's also the basket changes every six months and it captures uh and according not like cpi which is every two years or so so it's in general more adaptive and specifically it does take into account the government shutdown that happened uh beforehand in in october november so it doesn't sort of miss out on on this data uh so on a yearly basis it's more more precise at least at least for now uh but in the future zooming out worse wants to change how things are calculated what figures um are looked at but for now we have cpi we have pc uh cpi is released earlier markets love uh timely figures uh we try to be as timely as possible as well and it moves markets so if it moves markets that's what we're interested in um yeah every day is a school day i didn't know that you see yeah so uh [00:57:53] Ian Coleman: so thank you yo hey yeah yeah so uh as i've said before you are macro man yeah we are a team here [00:58:02] Speaker 1: balancing out the ian's technicals and my macro so uh and we hope you you enjoy these uh shows as the end said uh do subscribe to fx street's youtube channel um lots of important stuff there keeping you up to date and also helping you trade in the long term sign up to uh fx streets orange juice which i write day in day out with the help from the team and um yeah and their next life coverage we said uh we july 23rd afterwards we'll have the fed so yeah we're keeping that that cadence no no rest for us in in the summer heat uh and uh yeah and hopefully you enjoyed it uh if as much as the world cup or even more uh let's see who wins the semi-finals uh tonight france against spain and tomorrow huge match argentina against england um we will not be covering that live will be yours [00:59:05] Ian Coleman: yeah i might be covering it live yeah yeah from a comfy seat with a pint maybe yeah yeah pub commentary [00:59:14] Speaker 1: uh that's always fun okay so i guess that's it um for today for this exciting uh uscpi release thank you very much ian coleman thank you thank you and uh see you next time thank you and bye bye cheers [00:59:32] Speaker ?: Thank you.