US CPI Report: May Inflation Hits 3-Year High, Fed Rate Hike Priced In

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: first phrase i learned in spanish and this is our theme today welcome to our live coverage here at fx read we're going to cover u.s inflation figures which are going to add another layer of action to financial markets with everything going on in the middle east and ai and all that and i'm so happy to have here with me ian coleman ian how are you doing i'm very well yeah how are you yourself good good excited we had so much action on friday with non-farm perils that i'm sure we'll have fun here as well i hope so there's there's there's a lot of setups on the [00:00:36] Ian Coleman: charts i think we're gonna get some volatility over these figures yeah i'll just say a bit about the [00:00:42] Speaker 1: data we're expecting uh usa it's called consumer price index cpi it's the first inflation figure expecting an increase um of the most important figure is core cpi month over month expected to rise only 0.3 in may figures for now compared to 0.4 but on an annual basis on a yearly it's expected to rise from 2.8 to 2.9 core cpi means no food and no energy but americans do drive cars and eat food like all of us so uh the headline is expected to rise just a bit more uh 0.5 percent monthly and 4.2 percent yearly higher than last time and dan you mentioned uh some volatility on the charts uh so let us know what's what's keeping you up at night or what which chart caught your attention [00:01:34] Ian Coleman: well quite a few of them actually today um obviously we've seen a lot of volatility this week we saw it after uh non-farm payroll on friday um one thing i should say just at the start that we are live uh over three different channels uh youtube x and tick tock um please do post your questions in the chat uh we'll get to them um after uh this initial period um we're going to be looking at obviously the dollar predominantly but also stock indices uh there's an interesting setup in the euro against the us dollar um potentially sterling against the us dollar one i really do like today is uh the us dollar against the canadian dollar and obviously after today we've got uh well sorry after the cpi uh we've got the bank of canada interest rate decision this afternoon so that could be uh that could be [00:02:33] Speaker 1: pretty uh pretty volatile yeah i'm expected to leave rates at 2.25 but everything they say [00:02:39] Ian Coleman: can move the loonie go ahead sorry yeah um so yeah it's uh it's quite interesting so i mean my concentration today initially is going to be on the euro against the us dollar uh dollar cat and there's also a quite an interesting setup in the dax as well uh if we get down to those uh well slightly further to the downside i think it offers a potential buying opportunity um yeah and also melting and i know [00:03:08] Speaker 1: many of reviewers like to see what's going on in gold so plenty to talk about where do you want to kick [00:03:13] Ian Coleman: it off uh let's have a look at uh the chart for the euro uh against the us dollar this is actually an intraday chart i'm predominantly a swing trader um but i do obviously look at intraday intraday setups um and this has got my attention today so 30 minute chart there's quite a lot to take in here um there's some levels some break levels there's some resistance levels there's some support levels there's a cipher pattern there's an elliot wave formation not going to try and over complicate things but it it is um quite complex so this is basically the strong sell-off that we saw after non-farm payroll uh on friday and then we've seen this period of consolidation up until today's obviously very important inflation data um what i do have is i have a resistance level at 1.1611 now what i like to see in charts is i like to see correlation so i like it when certain levels line up and give you sort of strength uh for a potential signal so 1.1611 is my resistance level we've also got a 261.8 extension level at the same place so as always elliot wave formation as an overlay we could have already seen wave one come come coming lower in wave two this morning then up to three um previous swing high sometimes attracts some profit taking so around about 115.79 but the prime short entry for me is up here so 116.11 116.26 makes a bearish bat formation so we've got this sort of zone that says you should be selling rallies basically from today i'm not expecting this to be a medium term swing high but i do then believe that we've got the potential to move down to this zone here uh which is a weekly support zone so 115.33 to 115.17 so like i said probably high volatility over these figures one caveat is that if it blows this level this previous swing low which is at 1.1528 before the figures then it negates this whole pattern so all the hard work that i put in this morning will go out the window basically um it's quite a setup yeah yeah but it's quite interesting to look at this because and we will get to gold i know the there'll be um guys out there uh traders looking for uh analysis on gold but euro against the us dollar because it's today's figures really dominated by uh the dollar has a tendency to move in the same direction as gold so that would suggest or this chart would suggest that there's a potential correction to the upside in gold but that it could be short limited uh short [00:06:22] Speaker 1: lived and then we see another move to the downside right well you prepare your chart i'm sorry you [00:06:29] Ian Coleman: wanted to finish some something no no no i'm finished on the on the euro dollar yeah so as you prepare your [00:06:35] Speaker 1: chart for gold well it's been quite a sell-off there and if we zoom out it's not only golds we had uh bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies collapsed already last week um and that was seemed like a precursor a leading indicator to the downfall that we saw towards the end of the week in in tech stocks and nasdaq fell almost five percent on on friday after the non-farm payrolls report and this week it's the turn of uh precious metals gold and silver are under pressure seems like maybe those um ai ipos are sucking the air away and money away from from everything else maybe it's uh just uh people giving up on on bullish positions on on gold in any case it's quite dramatic and the end i'm sure you can enlighten us about the how gold is positioned right now yeah we've seen a strong sell-off um [00:07:32] Ian Coleman: obviously this again was um from uh friday's uh non-farm payroll data so moving quite aggressively to the downside i believe that we could get wrong-footed today or or potentially you know um short-term traders could get wrong-footed because we've got this level here so we've got a 261.8 percent extension level at four uh four thousand one hundred and forty four dollars and you can see that we're just clipping that uh as as we speak elliott wave would say wave one wave two wave three wave four wave five so there's good potential that um people will be locking who have been short in gold will be looking to lock in profits here we've got a support level a further support level at four zero nine five and we've got a previous swing low of four zero nine nine now what has a tendency to happen is that there's retail stop losses placed below these levels so what sometimes happens is that we'll get a spike to the downside accumulates those stop losses and then moves higher if this moves in correlation with uh the euro against the us dollar then it's quite uh feasible that we get a move to the upside that then triggers some sort of retail longs and then the market reverses and then comes lower and takes out this this liquidity zone if you like so all i would say to people that trade gold and i'm not an advocate of uh trading gold as you probably know uh i much prefer um major currencies basically because i can use single currency correlation but i think you've got to have a bit of a warning sign here if we do see a move to the upside it could potentially be short-lived and i'll watch that topside barrier in the euro against the us dollar as possible correlation with gold for an intraday top nice okay and we have a [00:09:45] Speaker 1: question here uh someone's saying that he thinks a 4.2 headline cpi is overestimated um well if you ask americans they would say that four percent or even five percent does not begin to describe what kind of inflation they're feeling and seeing and especially when they compare it to the prices they used to know in the past um but to answer it more precisely i think we have here 4.2 doesn't seem exaggerated think that 0.5 percent monthly which is what's expected right now is um if you uh multiplied by 12 very simple math then you already get six percent so if you have 0.5 percent this month 0.6 last month then things begin accelerating from 3.8 percent last month to 4.2 so and i think that if we have 0.5 that monthly we'll also get easily 4.2 uh yearly in any case once again the focus is for markets not for politicians is on core cpi which is expected to rise 0.3 monthly and 2.9 uh yearly um okay uh we have also a question on uh bitcoin we mentioned it before it has dropped quite sharply even dipping below 60 000 over the weekend yen what do you see on your charts there yeah it's a monster sell-off [00:11:12] Ian Coleman: isn't it i mean i think it was 17 percent that he devalued last week alone um obviously there's the saying that you know don't try to catch a falling knife um i my analysis suggests that there's still potential for for further losses um we did note the 60 000 level uh in last week's uh non-farm payroll or run up to the non-farm payroll data made a 59 106 low and then bounced to the upside i think this is sometimes where um a lot of traders get wrong footed so these they see the initial move higher and think well this could potentially be a bullish elliot wave count so wave one wave two and then up again in the in the fifth wave but if you're going to trade waves we haven't made a higher high yet so you need to break this previous swing high to get that change in lower lows and lower highs to higher highs and higher lows and that comes in at 60 64 196 um i've got a 261.8 extension level down here which is around about 55 000 um well 55 600 um i've got a projected support level around about 54 000 so for me um as a swing trade setup and you can see all of these currency pairs on the left hand so sorry on the right hand side they've all got amber lights next to them or or blue lights for potential setups or red lights for for saying that i'm actually going to trade this bitcoin has got nothing next to it so it's not on my watch list at the moment but if i was to buy into bitcoin i'll be buying at lower levels and [00:13:02] Speaker 1: that would be between 55 600 and 54 000. got it okay and we have somebody saying here he's expecting or she's expecting a similar movement as nfp day i expect that as well for various reasons we're seeing well we had a recent experience with nfp that's one good reason second reason is what's going on in the middle east i mean is this can we still call this a ceasefire every day they're in kinds of skirmishes in in lebanon and in the gulf and it's only self-defense and then it's only retaliation only tit for tat okay okay i understand it's not a full-scale war but the u.s and iran are not getting closer to a deal contrary to what the president of the united states says i mean there's ongoing fighting the strait of remove remains closed yes there is a trickle of ships but the recent incidents uh overnight with the us attacking iran and iran then attacking various gulf countries where there are us bases including jordan for a change um that also keeps markets quite nervous and they think small sparks can trigger uh quite uh quite a bit of price action and um yeah we also have a here a question about uh the australian dollar it's dropped over two percent in the past week [00:14:23] Ian Coleman: what's going on there ian yeah and down another point three percent today so uh risk risk off uh we're seeing a move lower in um in risk currencies um obviously the aussie dollar taking the uh the brunt of this uh this sell-off i think this is a good time to sort of look at aussie dollar look at correlation and look where we could potentially go from here elliot wave again any wave analysis down in five waves we've got a 261.8 extension level and this is on the four hour chart okay and it comes in at 0.6955 and i've put correlation here uh on uh this time frame because it's important because when we go out to this time frame we've got oh let's get that back we've got the same level so a higher time frame shows a 61.8 um extension level from this wave so we've got this correlated uh support so just so i can highlight what was on the on the other time frame so basically on the other time frame we've got this so five waves completing the third wave so at the moment it still looks bearish and that basically says that there's scope for further downside pressure in stock indices as far as i'm concerned but this sell-off is getting towards the end and that brings me on to very nicely onto onto the dax because i think that's quite an interesting uh chart to look at at the moment [00:16:10] Speaker 1: before we touch the dax i'll mention it's 15 minutes to the event we're here covering cpi for those of you u.s inflation for those of you joining right now we're expecting a small uptick in inflation markets are nervous lots of assets are falling and we talked about the aussie and now over to you ian to the german dax [00:16:30] Ian Coleman: yeah so a lot of the time stock indices will mirror um aussie products or aussie yen in particular uh because they're they're correlated they're sort of nearly plus one correlated so as uh aussie against the us dollar moves to the downside so does the dax and it's a similar story wave one wave two wave three wave four resistance level up here at twenty four thousand eight hundred uh there's a two sixty one point eight percent extension level at twenty three thousand nine hundred and sixty six i've got a support level at twenty three thousand nine hundred and five so what i'm expecting or what i'd like to see is a move down to this level and then the correction uh to uh to the upside so basically at the moment uh bearish bias but i think the sell-off will be limited and then we'll get this sort of choppy free wave [00:17:28] Speaker 1: correction uh potentially up to this level 24 800. super nice yeah and um we cannot talk about markets uh without talking about one specific special stock which is coming to to markets near you spacex the company led by elon musk which sends rockets to space says starlink satellites but also owns xai which is ai and it owns twitter so quite a lot of things coming to market and it's happening the pricing is happening tomorrow first day of trading is on friday lots of demand for that from institutional um traders four times over subscribed according to the latest report so there is lots of action over there and uh yeah let's uh move on uh back to currencies uh when what's going on in in sterling what's uh your base there in the uk [00:18:24] Ian Coleman: i actually thought that sterling was going to struggle to get uh to get much higher um i'm not a fundamental trader as you know but there's a lot of um issues should we say in the uh in the uk government at the moment um i believe we're seeing this so we're in a corrective uh channel formation at the moment interesting that we've got overlapping price action so overlapping waves will normally mean uh that the move uh to the upside is corrective does it mean that it's going to be um long-term bearish i don't believe so but at the moment there is a resistance barrier today at 1.3418 so similar story uh to the euro against the us dollar in that there's potential to move to the upside on an intraday basis but i would look for that to potentially be the first wave in a bullish uh elliott wave that's going to be the first wave in that um but i think it's going to be short-lived and actually the prime sort of long entry if you like would be in this zone um why uh because there's a um a medium-term resistance barrier up here and if you brought down in this zone the pattern the elliott wave pattern would be negated on a move through 1.3306 so just to just to wind that up a little bit bullish bias going into the figures but i think it'll be capped by one one point three three three four [00:20:13] Speaker 1: two two two on an intraday basis nice love that so uh we have 10 minutes to go until the event and uh the event is u.s inflation figures which of course impact the federal reserve now um inflation has been rising because of the war also other other events are happening and the latest on from payrolls report we mentioned it several times but didn't mention that it was excellent so the u.s economy gained 172 000 jobs much better than expected and if you have more jobs and more inflation there's one logical policy path which is raising interest rates will the fed do that well there's a new sheriff in town he's called kevin warsh the chairman of the federal reserve the he's not going to raise interest rates next week we'll be covering it in live here for you as well but he has a dilemma um he wants to drop forward guidance not to tell markets what to expect but the current uh bias of the forward guidance of the fed is that they're going to cut interest rates what warsh wants that's going to be a super exciting uh event and um also a new a new chair a new style uh wow we won't preview all of that um yeah now we have um a question about dollar cad i see ian do you wanna take it that's just me wanting to talk about [00:21:42] Ian Coleman: it basically yeah i mean this is this is one of my favorite pairs at the moment um if you look at the daily chart there's a doji style candle yesterday so that means in indecision it doesn't mean that there is a top in place but like i said we've got the canadian figures again uh later today this um this setup for me is really quite nice basically um five wave count to the downside this is a 30 minute chart um support is located at 1.3909 there's a 261.8 extension level at 1.3907 why do i like this because i can see this as being if it gets down to this level i can see it being a liquidity grab so basically stop loss is placed below here um i wouldn't expect a long-term sell-off so basically five waves down and then three waves back up there's resistance levels at 1.3941 and 1.3950 so it's really only a short-term potential intraday trade what we could potentially see is is this and we get these at the top they're not very common uh but they're called diamond formations so basically making or holding within this sort of big diamond pattern and then uh breaking to the downside um be interesting to look or follow uh the daily chart on this currency pair to see whether or not we eventually get a uh some [00:23:17] Speaker 1: sort of doji doji topping formation nice okay we have a question here about um what's the japan tolerance level the ministry of finance in tokyo is they're scratching their heads for sure now that usd dollar yen is above 160 and they haven't intervened are they allowing it to go higher what's their intervention level well first of all i wish i knew i think they are hesitant to intervene because each intervention is spending a lot of money and um they have to be careful they have to time it right they're also traders so they don't want to try to push something down when it's going up and i think at least they are waiting to see if they have a better uh moment to intervene and push it lower but they're certainly unhappy with 160. i don't know if they're going to intervene at 161 162. they i think they will just even at current levels they could intervene uh to uh strengthen the end they are super unhappy they import oil from other countries now oil prices are not extreme but uh they could certainly go up uh as well so uh we have uh six minutes to go enough time maybe to get a few more assets so ian do you want to go we have questions about silver which is melting down or dollar yen which i just [00:24:44] Ian Coleman: talked about yeah i've got a dollar yen chart up first um obviously the sort of correlation that i'm looking at at the moment is for um lower dollars over the figures um there's a very large uh trend line coming up or trendline resistance located around about 160 58 there's this um confluence level so it's a 161.8 extension level of this rally and it's a um 127.2 percent uh level from uh this decline and that actually forms a pattern known as a butterfly formation and you can see that we're just starting uh to drift lower uh from this topping formation so for me if i had to trade dollar yen at the moment especially with regards to sort of potential intervention um i would say it's got a bearish [00:25:41] Speaker 1: bias um from current levels um yeah it goes hand in hand with uh with what we talked about before um yeah we have another question here about uh silver silver has been melting alongside gold there has been been nothing fundamental in terms of directly related to silver because demand silver is used in in data centers for some uses and all that and demand is insatiable but uh yeah the speculative part is pushed silver higher and now pushes it lower what do you see on on the silver charts again it's sort of [00:26:22] Ian Coleman: mirroring um the uh the gold chart at the moment this is a four hour chart elliott wave again uh highlights lower levels we've got a 261.8 extension level around about 62 dollars uh we've got some support at 61.23 cents and again i think liquidity stops will be below for to trade these these metals at the moment i would have to see personally a switch from lower lows and lower highs to higher highs and higher lows uh because all that's happening at the moment is rallies are just finding sellers um so yeah bearish bias and i'd watch for sort of again similar to gold and liquidity grab to the downside [00:27:08] Speaker 1: right okay so we have something like three minutes to go until the u.s releases its inflation figures for may we're expecting an uptick in inflation um and the focus is on core cpi which is projected to rise by 0.3 percent monthly and 2.9 percent yearly any small deviation 0.1 percent to one direction or to the other direction can trigger massive movement we're talking about higher figures would support the us dollar and lower figures would support gold and oil we've seen a massive response to non-farm payrolls just on friday so five days have passed and we're all eager to see lots of price action anything get tips to for traders as we head into the event ian [00:27:58] Ian Coleman: yeah i mean i've sort of covered all all my favorite products if you like um i mean we can sort of have a look at dxy um it's pretty it's pretty choppy um let's just get this chart up um again i've got support down here at 99.05 that this is a again a 30 minute chart what we are starting to see is a move to the downside so this moving to the downside as um euro potentially against the dollar moving to the upside which was uh what i'd like to see um i think we'll get a pretty pretty choppy sort of price action over the figures um i haven't got a pattern is is is the honest answer i mean only really look try to to trade formations when they line up um and i'd have to see a bounce from 99.52 you know in a second wave to then highlight sort of further losses um for uh for [00:29:05] Speaker 1: dxy so yeah it's it's it's a no-go zone for me at the moment right okay we have around 30 seconds to go until the data comes out u.s inflation core cpi is the important figure for markets for the federal reserve it's the kind of inflation it has more influence on let it has less influence on energy prices which are lifting the uh well lifting uh headline scpi uh remember this is a big event it can cause massive movement trade with care remember that the initial move is not always the right one we had a good reaction on friday non-front payrolls but this one can always be different and yeah here we go euro dollar up 0.2 below expectations core cpi monthly in the us 0.2 percent against 0.3 percent seen last time and uh 0.4 last time and 0.3 expected however uh annual inflation does rise to 2.9 as expected so um immediate reaction is that the data is just below expectations but not extremely so headline inflation uh yearly up 0.5 percent and uh yearly 4.2 percent monthly 0.5 percent exactly as expected so all in all a minor downside surprise on core cpi we should see a weaker us dollar and higher gold and higher stocks what do you see on your charts yen yeah the euro against the us dollar we're seeing a [00:30:42] Ian Coleman: knee-jerk reaction to the upside um not much follow through buying at the moment um i mean one thing that i should mention um with regards to sort of my analysis on on the euro against the us dollar is it's a day trade uh if it doesn't get to that 1.16 11 level by the end of play which is well candle close at nine o'clock uh my time uh then it sort of negates this pattern but we are seeing a small move but most of it's been sort of rejected and again this is sort of a 30-minute chart so i would i would have expected to have seen uh more follow through buying or dollar selling uh which we're not seeing as yet [00:31:26] Speaker 1: right okay so um yeah inflation data is out in the us figures for may show a rise in inflation both core cpi is up 2.9 percent year over a year against 2.8 percent in april and headline inflation which is what matters for americans less so for markets is up to 4.2 percent from 3.8 percent so it's bad politically for president donald trump bad for americans but for markets there is an element of relief here because it could have been worse and we're seeing a bit of choppy market reaction right now we're seeing a bit of us dollar weakness but not extreme so far and this would allow this report could allow wars to find a silver lining and say that inflation maybe is not so bad but it's still rising for americans and the headline and the employment situation is quite good any other thing to add ian on any chart that you see [00:32:30] Ian Coleman: some instant reaction um just gold's obviously reacting from that 261.8 um extension level but it's not really on the move should we say uh dollar cad is uh consolidating uh knee-jerk reaction to the downside but sort of stabilized again another caveat uh this support level is only good for today um i don't uh see um if you don't if it doesn't clip today then it's uh it's invalidated basically in uh in dollar cad um might be worth having a look at uh stock indices um us s&p 500 ticking up a little bit on those figures um and again i haven't really got any strong levels if you like on on on this index i prefer the buy the dip on the dax um there's an intraday resistance level at 774 7410. okay yeah in stock markets uh markets [00:33:36] Speaker 1: are holding their breath towards the ipo of spacex the rocket and satellite company by elon musk the world's richest man who aims to reach the moon mars and a valuation of one trillion dollars and uh yeah it's pricing tomorrow and we're gonna get uh the first trading day of uh this uh stock with the ticker spcx on friday normally ipos come uh when a company is growing and wants to grow even further this company of course wants to reach mars but hey it's it's not a young company their their valuation that they're aiming for at the ipo is something like 1.75 trillion dollars not very cheap how high can it go so i don't know if uh we're gonna see lots of interesting price action uh over there and it's gonna affect all stock indexes even though spacex is not immediately included in them but it's gonna affect all stock markets and i see um yet now you have the us 30 the dow jones which is less tech heavy tech heavy uh you have it ready for us there's some interesting moves over there yeah it's quite an interesting sort of medium [00:34:52] Ian Coleman: term chart if you like um so i've put at the top here cypher so cypher pattern analysis quite interesting here we've got a breakout of this wedge formation and the measured move target is down here which is around about 49 246 now i've got a weekly uh support level monthly support level sorry at 49 428 now cypher pattern analysis so this goes out of sync really with the dax so cypher pattern analysis basically says that we could see this pattern so a lot of traders get wrong footed they see a wedge breakout and they think it's just going to be strong impulsive moves to the downside and what happens is we have a tendency to sometimes stall halfway and then we get quite a decent sort of pullback again uh sort of liquidating stop losses and stuff like that so what i do like to see is i like to see retests of uh the wedge breakout because then that can potentially give uh quite nice uh short entries so it's all about risk reward as we know um and this would be a potential setup of around about 5r so like i said us 30 not really in sync with the dax at the moment i think us stock indices uh can potentially push higher but those rallies um have the uh well i believe [00:36:25] Speaker 1: they'll be sold into basically right okay we have a question now about oil uh for those joining now us inflation came out more or less as expected with the core prices which do not include oil just a bit underestimates but uh oil is pushing headline inflation uh higher and we have a question here about oil um not not pushing inflation too much but it's so it's a win-win for the united states yes the u.s is the world's largest oil producer and thanks to the war it's exporting much more oil than before where does this new oil come from almost entirely from reserves okay now these reserves are not bottomless it's not uh a miracle eventually they could run out or or reach dangerous levels where they would need to be replenished so um it's good for the us to sell more more oil yes it's uh it's good for um refiners and all that but inflation is rising because global uh because global markets that determine oil prices and eventually once again there is there are many factors impacting the price of oil which is not extremely high some oil is passing through our moves despite the blockade some is going through saudi arabia the east to west pipeline um but the biggest factors are more uh exports from the us and other countries because of the reserves and less imports by china which also has lots of reserves and it's running down its reserves as well so yeah you can see the common word here is reserves um and this keeps oil high but not extreme what does the chart tell us ian [00:38:10] Ian Coleman: yeah it's an interesting chart um wti has been quite quite choppy um with all the breaking news like you say about uh about the the war and and different sort of supply uh and and demand um so here technical let's talk about technicals because i'm not very good at fundamental analysis ending wedge formation it's got a target down here i'm going to leave that to you yeah um 81.94 uh we've got a correlation uh or we've got a confluence level so crab formation will complete 81 and 83 cents what what have we seen today well you've got to be careful when you're trading cipher patterns and when you're trading elliot waves sometimes they interlink sometimes they don't uh wave wave analysis has now been broken because this little spike higher today has taken out this previous swing low um from the fifth of june which was last week so as far as elliot wave is concerned this bearish bias is is now broken but there is an intraday resistance level at 91.99 and we've made a 91.76 swing high today so for me the bias is still bearish and i'd look for a move down to 81.83 before i'll either look at locking locking in profit or potentially reversing uh reversing sentiment on on wti and one thing that i should say is that this pricing is uh on on an owanda chart um lots of different brokers have lots of different pricing so just be careful uh that you're uh trading the same levels and they are currently live at 90.77 so obviously you have to make the adjustments depending [00:40:10] Speaker 1: on your broker right okay um so we're 10 minutes after the release of us inflation figures core cpi month over month came out a bit below expectation 0.2 instead of 0.3 expected and that is enough to weigh on the us dollar help other currencies help gold and help uh stocks not major moves but uh but still uh significant uh yeah and we're seeing also as i mentioned the gold is um on the rise a bit uh yeah [00:40:43] Ian Coleman: and what what do you see there yeah it's just sticking it's sticking at that technical level uh 41 000 um or 4 144 um just looking at correlations so looking at euro um and looking at the dollar cad there is scope for a move to the upside from this from this support level but i'll just you know throw it in there i believe that it will be it will be short-lived and the bias is still or the medium term bias is still still still to lower levels um again using correlation keep an eye on that upside resistance level in the euro against the us dollar because correlation would suggest that it then dips to the downside so at the moment i'll give it a mild bullish bias if i had to trade it i would i would say it's probably going to go up from here but that it will be short-lived got it yeah and for [00:41:39] Speaker 1: a bit of fundamentals of gold well gold until february 28th when the war broke out was the safe haven of choice going up when things got worse in the middle east and falling when uh when there was some calm but then it flipped and now gold is less correlated or inversely correlated with the geopolitics and much better correlated uh in its classic form with u.s treasury yields because a safe haven competes with the safe haven uh u.s debt is giving more if u.s debt gives more high returns then why not buy uh u.s bonds and and and instead of uh gold so gold has been under under pressure which explains uh the substantial downfall we've seen there once again today inflation is a bit lower that pushes yields also puts a bit of pressure on them and that helps gold uh recover so um yeah we're heading towards um uh the u.s uh open and uh yeah it's uh 45 more minutes to go or something like that and um we're seeing a bit more price action in in stock markets and also on the us dollar any additional comments uh yen on any of the dollar [00:42:59] Ian Coleman: pairs or yeah i'm just looking at dollar cad so we're starting to get that move now so i would say that we're firmly in the fifth wave uh heading towards this this support level again using correlation um if the dollar moves lower than we have a tendency for sort of stock indices uh to uh to push to the upside so i think we'll probably get a positive open uh just with uh guys talking about the us stock market and where where they expect it to open so probably a positive open but as happens on an intraday basis uh could be short-lived uh so i'd i'd be wary uh wary of spikes yeah exactly and um we have um a question [00:43:42] Speaker 1: here about uh about buying the dips uh specifically on nasdaq well look at the nasdaq in the past i think maybe even 25 years since the big crash in the early 2000s many dips small and big proved to be buying opportunities tech stocks have been rising and rising and rising since the dot-com bubble burst when i was in university and had a bit of hair on my head but uh of course some it's always a question of timing and what any drop is this a dip or not uh how high will it go when is the next fall uh it's always hard uh to figure it out what i will say is that we have not only ipos now spacex and then anthropic and open ai but also uh companies tech companies which are long time in markets also tapping them also doing a secondary tertiary whatever you want to call it issuance we're talking about meta about google either debt or stocks seems like they're rushing to get money from markets uh because there's lots of money sloshing around or because they think it's going away so um one of these dips could be a precursor to an even bigger dip and not necessarily a buying opportunity once again timing is hard but maybe the technicals have better answers ian what do you see on nasdaq it looks like a typical inflation day [00:45:16] Ian Coleman: basically yeah that everybody gets wrong footed um and um and we get that sort of choppy intraday price action could even potentially post uh post an inside day today uh so obviously this was a large sell-off yesterday uh which was substantial um in fact how much was it uh info line let's have a look uh so you know we we devalued by five and a half percent yesterday so normally when that happens you get indecision the next day you get inside candles or inside arami candles that as they're known inside soldiers and they just highlight indecision uh there's an intraday resistance at 29 118 as i said as the dollar moves lower then stock indices should put should push higher but i'll be aware of that dollar dip buying and that could result in um in stock indices or the rally in stock indices being limited um what i'd prefer to do if i was a buyer in uh the nasdaq is to buy it on dips so around about 28 thousand three hundred and twenty three hundred and twenty four um i don't normally go down to sort of not going to call these micro time frames but you could potentially see this so an inside back pattern uh then forming a base and then giving a much better sort of risk reward factor and again that's the name of the game it's you know i don't like buying at highs um and i don't like selling at lows [00:46:54] Speaker 1: yeah yeah um and we have now a question about um could slightly below expectations u.s inflation affect the bank of canada's rate decision uh we're talking about uh usmca well uh many many topics here and in one question so in yes the economies of the united states and canada are highly correlated 75 of canadian exports go to their southern neighbor to the united states uh but a mess of 0.1 percent against economists expectations of u.s inflation is unlikely to impact the bank of canada's decision in addition the decision has probably already been taken i'm not talking only about the expected uh interest rate announcement which is projected to remain unchanged but also the statement is already probably already written they release it in around one hour just after the u.s markets open uh in general uh the canadian economy seems to be recovering now after suffering quite a few blows from uh housing housing bubble during covet that collapsed afterwards and rising unemployment unemployment now is on the is improving uh we've seen a big uh drop in the jobless rate on friday is 6.6 against 6.9 expected so uh things are getting better in canada that's why i expect them to remain a bit sorry not to remain to become a bit less dovish um and sort of say that they're on hold for a long time and i believe that if the fed will be forced to raise interest rates then uh the um bank of canada will do so as well again there is a high correlation between the economies now about usmca i think trump is quite busy with other agreements uh and he wouldn't like to tear up uh an accord with canada that he signed in his first term so uh i see stability on uh the u.s canadian trade front at least at least for now but you never know with trump right so uh yeah i mean usd cat has been one of your favorite currency pairs today yeah yeah i said i'm still lucky i'm just looking at [00:49:10] Ian Coleman: euro dollar i mean one thing that i like to see um and i know that a lot of people look at smart money concepts so i've just put an overlay on the chart at the moment and one thing that i like to see personally is when we get breakouts so a lot of um traders obviously trade breaking higher highs and higher lows um this is a change of character so coming above the previous swing high which was around about 115 59 what do we have i'm going to try and zoom in on the chart here so we have this okay this is this fair value gap now i know a lot of traders um use them as um uh they look for them to close and then and then and then trade them to the upside what i like to see is i like to see fair value gaps when we break changes of structure because it basically says to me that we've got a strong move to the upside and it's it's it's gapping higher gapping higher um so i mean i think as far as these sort of currency pairs and as far as gold is concerned at the moment it's looking bullish um but like i said it really needs to get up to these levels the this 116 11 level uh before um my 9 pm and close for me to be able to take a short entry i think dollar cad um has got more more chance of getting there um let's have a quick look uh just because you know we're already uh within the within the fifth wave whereas the euro against against the us dollar uh we're only actually starting the [00:50:53] Speaker 1: third wave right and um yeah i'll also uh mention that uh for those joining now 20 minutes ago we had u.s inflation coming out just a bit below expectations on the figure that matters to markets core cpi monthly came out at 0.2 percent against 0.3 but all the other figures did come in as expected and it's worth mentioning that the headline inflation rate at 4.2 percent as expected but it's still the highest rate since uh in three years in three years so that's quite some time and it's not as high as it used to be in um at the peak which was june 2022 uh which was almost four years ago and it was just above nine percent so now it's only 4.2 percent but americans uh have endured inflation it's a hot topic especially the price of the pump so it's uh quite uh painful uh we have i see more questions um about uh silver i see silver recovering just a bit i think the moves are a bit limited but uh ian can you refresh our minds with uh what's going on in the white metal yeah and again it's sort of it's [00:52:10] Ian Coleman: just mirroring well it is it's a reflection of of what's going on in the euro against the us dollar at the moment is the the fact that we're just getting this tick to the upside this is a this is a four hour chart i mean if we go down to 30 minutes and i've managed to get rid of my if we go down to 30 minutes we are seeing a spike to the upside that is not that's not a signal to trade as far as i'm concerned this just looks like wrong box this just looks like a distribution or accumulation zone as far as uh the wycoff area is concerned so smart money accumulating in here and then a spike lower uh to take out weak stop losses people who have taken longs early um and then potentially reversing maybe close to this 261.8 extension level but like i said there's still liquidity and stop losses below [00:53:11] Speaker 1: um it's it's not a setup for me put it that way got it yeah uh you mentioned the euro dollar um earlier and this this is an opportunity to tell everybody that we'll be back tomorrow tomorrow we will be covering the european central bank's uh rate decision and they are projected to increase borrowing costs making mortgages here in barcelona more expensive and uh other things to uh mitigate rising inflation also a result of the war again higher inflation uh headline inflation is up but it also has secondary effects especially if the economy is doing well and well here in europe the economy is a bit meh in comparison to the united states but still uh an interest rate so that was a super short uh preview okay i think we're uh getting close to the end of the of our live coverage uh ian um may you have anything good to say before i wrap up about the data once again reminding everybody what [00:54:15] Ian Coleman: figures we had no just an interesting session um you know we get a lot of whipsaw uh over these over these figures um the first reaction is not always the the long-term bias if you like um all i'd say is just stick to your levels uh if you're a technical trader you know don't jump in early jump in late um work out your risk reward factors um and uh always look at the big picture but apart from that no i'm [00:54:49] Speaker 1: i'm all good to go yeah great tips for me and again when we have decisive data like we had on friday we have clear moves markets uh go up and then up again and a bit more and a bit more when we have uh indecision it's much uh choppier luckily i don't see any uh extreme moves that could whip sat traders uh that much in any case a reminder of the data we had um u.s inflation figures coming out almost perfectly as expected but the one exception was core cpi month over month a bit lower some sigh of relief 0.2 percent not 0.3 and that allowed the u.s dollar to fall gold to rise silver to rise and as stocks to uh edge up as well uh not extreme moves um but uh yeah all the other figures came out as expected u.s headline inflation 4.2 percent is the highest in three years it's been great having you all with all your questions and i'm now even more excited towards tomorrow's uh ecb live coverage so uh yeah we'll be here uh what time do we kick it off here and i think it's uh 11 45 gmt right 11 45 gmt yep all right yeah and uh uh we're on quite a few platforms of course on the fx free website it's also available for you all um um and uh yeah we're at interesting times as they say we're in the middle east still uh going on uh for um some time uh the markets are moving quite sharply lots of exciting ai tools i feel i'm only working harder because of ai under pressure to to produce more and more i don't see the productivity gains but uh anyway um who knows what's going on it's really interesting and ecb tomorrow we kick it off at 12 gmt which is 8 eastern time and yeah it's been great having you here in this session and of course always a pleasure collaborating with an expert like yourself ian and the feelings mutual thank you thank you okay so i guess that's it uh for today uh we'll see you here uh tomorrow and thank you very much once again everybody for coming and for your questions that's it for now thank you and