US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX NDX RUT — Multiple Time Frame Analysis and Projections

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: so now we're going to move on and we're going to look at the charts we'll look at the key world stock indexes first the fxi fez then we're going to look at the s&p 500 nasdaq russell the vix and i'm going to show you a multiple time frame chart that's different than one i've ever shown because i think it will help with some understanding of a cyclical analysis the multiple time frame analysis and where we are right now at this moment plus some projections regarding some positive scenarios and negative scenarios so i think this will be important to look at so we're going to switch over right now to the charts this is the fxi now china is very weak china economy is just absolutely plunging and they're going to probably have to try to do something in here now if you look at this cycle that bottomed right over here you can see where the bottoms came here here here and the next one do if you believe in the timing right over here is either on the this daily trough right over here which is the end of october or this daily trough which is the end of november and you see the end of november aligns better with this so this looks to me like china stocks are going to go lower into the end of november and this is very important because i'm going to show you that the u.s stock market looks that way also so the if if uh asian stocks chinese stocks are going to be an influence on the u.s market it probably will be a negative influence let's take a look now as we look at the fez which is the top 50 weighted stocks in europe and you see a pretty similar scenario this weekly daily synchronization right over here is at the end of november way out over here it's mid to late november and that is suggestive that the european markets will continue to move down in towards that period of mid to late november so you have world you know heavyweight stocks in in europe you have the uh chinese stocks pushing down until the end of november and that's i think important information now i'm going to switch over to the vix right now because this is i think important analysis our analysis showed that on the weekly chart that it was fairly likely that what we were going to see was going to be a bottoming in here in implied volatility and then an upside move as money started to move out of stocks and as they look for insurance and you could see the vix right up over here is now at 20 so i have to revise that and project it up over here higher but you see if you can if you look at how many weeks this is on the upside right now it's only three so what happens generally is that you get a big burst in implied volatility it comes down again and then you get another move to the upside so this is early in this rising phase and it really comes on time here you could see wow i mean right now wow the s&ps are down almost 80 points right now falling very hard and of course this cycle now looks more like this so you see what happens is is that it will you know calm down it will have some kind of a move down over here and then what will happen will be it will move up again so if we're talking about sometime around mid-november that these other charts are aligning that takes you like somewhere out over here and likely to get higher prices and implied volatilities there so there might be some reprieve in here where the stock market gets a bounce and that might take you out towards the end of october that would be you know out somewhere about two weeks from now and then another hard hit out into november that's how it aligns let's take a look at the s&p 500 spx and you can see that what's happening is that the momentum is flattened out right over here after being positive and you get this big engulfing pattern that we're seeing right there that really looks like a top formation a double top or a complex top that would mean that the monthly patterns are pushing down because it wouldn't let it hold a new high there and when i look here at the daily chart this is really important because you can see that this is extending late over here so the number of days in this cycle is extending out in time now that means one of two things either there's so much selling that they're not done yet and there's going to be some kind of a brief rally in here but this tells you the strength of the selling in there or this low over here was that trough and it just failed in a huge way got below that number either way the messaging to me is negative when i look at that now um the the this has got the weekly cycle right in here as you can see and that points out to november right there the end of november so there's going to be some scenarios that i want to look at in here and i'll show those to you uh in just a moment so this looks like a top or a complex top that's formed momentum flat not giving us a negative signal yet and what looks like could be an extended cycle over here and then a potential rally that would fail when i look at the nasdaq you'll see the nasdaq the decline is much deeper and uh getting now into this support zone right over there and on the daily chart again another one that's extending late and lengthening out the cycle momentum negative right over here and this to me looks like again like a top that's formed in here of some significance and likely based on this rsp cycle bracket which has really been dominating in here you can see that trough here the trough here the trough here that puts it out into mid to late november so again this cycle over here is early november this cycle over here is late november i'm going to show you how this extrapolates out on another chart what this says that you get a rebound that rebound is very likely to fail and then move down again into november you can see the russell here and this russell chart is just you know momentum turned negative here and it's been just absolutely awful again we're in an area where there should be a bounce there should be a rebound in here and then get up into where these cell zones are now these cell zones are declining so i'll update these for our members uh i did an update yesterday but it's going to need another update over this weekend uh and this should be an area that you could get a bounce in here but that bounce is not likely to be able to hold because this points to early november to late november for this trough this is early november this is late november for that trough so what i want to do is i want to bring in a chart that's different than one that i have showed you shown to you in the past and let me just grab that over here and this is a chart that shows this is a two-hour chart and what it shows is the weekly on the left uh i'm sorry the uh s p on the left and the nasdaq on the right on the two-hour chart the weekly cycle that you can see here let me just grab this right across here so we have the same number of cycles so what you're looking at is basically this year in a two-hour chart and what's happened is that there has been um three periods of ranges this period of ranges over here in january february that eventually broke down on the downside you can see that head and shoulders that are made there and notice how it fell through this weekly period right over here and then once the weekly in the daily this is a weekly in the daily chart made its trough it began to rally same thing happened right over here this is your weekly and your daily coming to a a trough right over there and that gave you that decline sharp decline right over here you can see where we are right now this of course based on what i'm showing you is late november so if i blow this up for you to see this likely will give you some kind of a rebound in here i'm just going to blow this up two hours right there you can see the two hours negative here on the slim ribbon po and this is likely to give you some kind of a rebound in here but then fall again out over here into early november and then fall again over here into late november and this is where there could be a very sizable acceleration in late november that's the s p 500 and if i look at it on the nasdaq you can see almost the identical situation as it comes down here into um this date is november 4th right there and then that means that if you get a rally in here it fails comes down into november 4th and then this potential hard sell over here i want to look at the scenarios right now so what we're looking at on the left is the these are high ganache charts which which build in a momentum condition so what we what you could see in here on the on this chart is that it's red because the high ganache candles and the slim ribbon together make it look like this uh i think it's just super valuable look when it was green and positive how valuable that was and when it turned negative in here love that high ganache and slim ribbon together give you that look so let's uh switch this over now and look at the uh scenarios let's take a positive scenario because i want to look at both possibilities looking at this cycle right over here and this cycle right over here so if i switch to a positive scenario and that is it starts to make a bottom right in here and uh then starts to move up this is you can see following the cycle patterns from the daily chart i showed you the daily chart cycle pattern looking like it should bottom right in here if it could bottom in here it's at the 50 percent of this whole move that would be positive on the s p 500 let's look over here uh on the two hour on of the i wanted to give you the positive first gave you a little peek at that positive right over here now remember this came down and broke that down to that 78.6 that means that you're likely to fail when you get a rally in here and you can see that i'm showing you that the s p 500 under the positive scenario makes a bottom here can go to a new high i'm showing you that the nasdaq is in worse condition and likely fails here that's 30 366 this over here is 30 600 right there that is showing you a negative condition in the even under a positive scenario the nasdaq has a negative condition to it and the s p 500 under the positive scenario can go to a new high this points all the way up to near 79 50 to that extension right over there that's the positive scenario market gets its footing right now and then turns up uh right now the s p's are down almost 90 points so they're really getting hit hard uh as uh this uh is going on will this make a bottom in here and turn up that's what we're waiting for that's the positive scenario the negative scenario which i give more waiting to right now because i think that we see tops forming that are pretty significant and this decline into november so that's the negative scenario for the s p 500 and this is the negative scenario here for the nasdaq and that's following these cycle patterns so you can see in here this cycle this cycle that's right in here it's very clear what would happen would be you'd actually get some kind of an upside move in here and it would make a double top or it would start to not make new highs and that s p top 10 correction would begin in other words those heavyweights uh if you saw the show last week you know i showed the top uh heavyweights the s the uh apple and uh microsoft and the uh let's see apple microsoft nvidia were 21.5 percent of the index and if those start to correct then you get a bigger decline you'd get a rally in here it would then break underneath the cycle low which would be negative and then you would set up this next bigger decline out over here into november right there this is the scenario under the conditions that those top 10 heavyweight stocks are going to correct in that period where you could get a pretty significant decline in the nasdaq so this projects the somewhere a modest down to 75 77 this is down to 75 14 in this period in november it could be a lot worse than that yeah under the negative scenario uh in here this would be a support at 28 800 let's say this would be at 28 000 approximately down on the downside so this is the negative scenario this is those cycles the daily cycle that i showed you and the weekly cycle converging over here and as i showed you on the daily on the weekly and daily chart that's where you get these bigger declines so if i just go to the um and there you have it so that's where you get the daily chart and the weekly chart with these cycle patterns completely laid out for you can see the beautiful rhythm right in here and this period coming down into this november period there so this is how it exists now when you look at that if i switch it over to the um positive scenario it's that as you can see where it would make a bottom here and then move to a new high i just don't see that as likely and here is the negative scenario where it moves up from some low over here fails over here and then begins to move down takes out the cycle low and sets up this bigger decline into november this is the first time i've ever shown this kind of a chart where i have an overlay of the multiple uh cycles that you can see there on the weekly and the daily cycles put on a two-hour chart that has the slim ribbon po on the bottom so that you could see the two-hour momentum conditions on the bottom right over there uh and uh if any of our level four members are interested in having this chart uh just write to team at slim.com and i will be glad to send those the this chart grid to you that shows the s p 500 uh and the nasdaq just say whether you want the positive or negative scenario or both uh and i can send those to you level four members slim i'd like to study both [00:16:39] Speaker 2: pardon me i'd like to study both you can send them to me [00:16:45] Speaker 1: they're very good very interesting yeah just uh crazy how good that is so yeah i'll send i'll send it to you matt but you know what i'm just going to post them up on our grid page okay sounds good yeah so all of our level four members i'm going to post those up on the grid grid page the negative and the positive uh and you'll be able to uh see how that lays out based on weekly and daily uh cycle patterns on a two-hour chart so that's where i'm going to post them we're going to quickly look uh at the uh uh at the amazing mcm and this upgrade here that i absolutely love uh we have this uh set to the intermediate right now and this is interesting because if you were you know an investor or long-term position trader you'd look at this and when you look at the market that is just rolling over and you would say well i want to know should i sell all my positions or not or which is the weakest or which is the strongest and you could see it very very clearly in here the the s p 500 as i show you is this is strong the uh the iwm is only slightly bearish if you were an investor and the qqq is still bullish remember this is for a long-term holder but if you were a trader and you want to switch it over to short term right over here now the scenario changes now this you see the notify here this will i have alert set in there so it will uh tell me that's what these little bells are and you can download our uh application and get alerted so what's happened in here s p 500 has now gone to neutral on a short term slightly bearish and very bearish on the qqq and we've seen the dow up on the week and that's slightly bullish and you can see this reflects that absolutely beautiful if you were trading in your day and you wanted to you know put your positions in the right direction well you can see spy bearish qqq bearish that's the near term uh iwm very bearish and the dow is not one that you would sell because it's the strongest one so you pick the weakest ones if you want to be on the short side and they're in the for uh uh people that are uh level four members and you're interested in interday well you can get this which is you can see the very bearish conditions in her day and matt showed you on the day trader how a lot of our uh uh indicators had shown you that as it turned uh negative let's just look quickly at the trade setup conditions uh and uh you can see in here as matt showed you the bullish stocks uh are a lot in the uh oils and energy of course because that's been strong and you can see in here that there is uh uh the ones that are strong i'm apple is crazy if you ask me it's very bullish but it makes no sense to me because they have a two thousand dollar foldable phone that i don't think anybody's gonna you know that won't be enough buyers for it to make a difference for them and twelve hundred dollars for their iphone 18 so i i just think there's going to be bad news but that's my opinion and they see it's very bullish so i would be pretty careful about selling it based on that so there's the bullish stocks that you can see trade-up setup conditions for the short term right there for the bearish stocks you can see uh solar that's tan as the etf for the solar stocks broadcom is uh a semiconductor stock uh equinex uh digital realty trust uh real tinto uh camco corporation these are the ones that are very negative right there draft kings bank of america that's an interesting very bearish oracle we know how bad shape that is if you've been following that citigroup uh morgan stanley so these banks which are getting a bounce in here this is kind of giving you a sense that this bank bounce may not hold when you see that anyway that's our market condition monitor level three and level four uh and uh this is the magnificent upgrade to it uh please sign up for level three or level four and just uh get uh the use of this uh fantastic uh application that we have that's it uh i want to remind you this is the end of our day trader service and free level two access three months for only 87.65 uh it's just a fantastic deal it won't renew it's one time non-recurring you get a good chance to look at our day trader and our level two which has over 500 videos 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