US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX NDX — Multiple Time Frame Analysis and Projections

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: all right stock market we're going to look at things here just a little bit differently than i normally do especially on a market week brief because this is a very strange time that we're in right now this is thursday october 22nd and if you look at the charts or you look at what's going on during the day you can see a market with the s p 500 down 100 points here as i do this recording at about 145 eastern time that's down over 100 points now at the same time the advance declines are positive 1450 to 1100 and we see sizable gains when you look at some of the dow jones transportation stocks that's up 1.7 percent right now and the dow itself is only modestly lower so you have a very rotational market going on right now with the tech stocks ai stocks mostly very weak semiconductors certainly and you have a condition where there is buying coming in to the consumer cyclicals and interest sensitive stocks like home builders that were beaten up and this is a one of the more rotational periods that we've ever seen now what that's done is it's really been able to keep the stock market up but when you have a day like today with the nasdaq down 800 points at this point two point six seven percent you know that you have an extraordinary condition going on now historically these type of periods where there have been uh a very heavy concentration and i've shown this uh in historical periods uh where there's a group of stocks that were most of the weighting of the indexes and the rest of the stocks kind of lagging behind then what happens is is when the stocks that were heavily concentrated begin to correct the stock market then starts to roll over and at some point there's a risk they're all going to get together on the downside that might be just ahead of us in the meantime the money is flowing in both directions and we had a condition recently where the stock market was showing weakness as the bond market was moving lower because we had the inflationary worries going on well i don't think inflationary worries have disappeared yet and matter of fact we have oil up to uh two dollars and 63 cents today as conditions have gotten worse in the middle east and with iran and at the same time the bond market the 30 year is up two full points that's moved the 10 year yields now as the 10 years have also bounced down to under five percent you have a very very strong bond market so what does this mean well money is moving out of these high techs moving out of these ai stocks because they're starting to wonder can they borrow all this money they're starting to wonder can they ever get payback for all of this build out that's going through right now and planned out over the next few years so they got way ahead of themselves so money is moving out of there but at the same time if it's moving into things like bond market or consumer cyclicals or things that were beaten up you know that it's trying to find some value somewhere or looking for safe haven that's not necessarily a good thing either so it's important when we look at these that we understand there is a lot of chaos in the stock market right now either the correction has to finish for the tech stocks and then they all begin to move up together or the stocks that are being bought now with some of the money that they're you know getting out of these other uh high caps and tech stocks if they start you know giving up on that again then they all begin to move down together i have thought that uh there's a bigger correction coming out into november and we're going to have to see how that sets up but what i'm going to show you right now does point to that kind of risk in some of the indexes let's take a look now as we switch over to the s p 500 so these are the charts of the s p 500 you have weekly on the left you have daily on the right now what we showed in the last time we did this recording was the weekly and here you can see that our momentum indicator which is our reversal scout has been rolling over here it's really this market is still in a range so i mean ari showed you that it's still in a range uh in the future speak show that's on wednesdays of course and that uh is still the case here when you look at the s p 500 it's still in the range and actually coming down to support and where you look where it's trading now uh i mean it's basically three percent off the all-time high not even quite that so this this with all of the selling that's going on in the higher caps this still hasn't made much damage it is giving a sign of rolling over when you look here i have the actually the equal weight cycle brackets and now the dow cycle bracket which lined up to a low right over here and the dow actually has been very strong while the broader market has been weak interesting and i'll show you that of course because that's where the consumer cyclicals are or interest rate sensitive stocks that are getting a rebound let's take a look now at the daily chart now in the last update we talked about the fact that we thought there was going to be a rally this week it came you can see that and just got up in here and nailed that resistance and then turned down here's that cycle low right over here and that low is a seven thousand six thirty one seventy seven if it gets below that and it's threatening it right now then that's going to say that this declining phase which comes out into early november is likely to see some hard selling in there as it is you can see this is a quite a negative pattern because this turned over just on the third day out of what our cycles in here that are averaging about 17 bars and you see this cycle that turned down early and broke that had one more rally and then got hit very hard well yeah it's possible it's going to come down here try the upside again but then probably get hit hard out over here into early november with the possibility that it goes out to the end of november on the downside so that's the s p 500 which has turned weaker you see here the slim ribbon po which is now blue has turned neutral that's an important one and the option bias indicator has turned neutral but still in this range again getting under that cycle low would be quite negative and put the market into quite a risky period so that's the s p 500 now let's look at the nasdaq nasdaq is weaker and you can see the reversal scout here has actually turned over and that says that you're likely to have a further decline out over here towards mid to late november that's what we were looking for and of course we have these very weak tech stocks leading this on the way down and this decline is much steeper than what we see on the s p 500 now again on the daily chart now you can see how weak this is this actually broke that low already so that what that says to me is that and by the way you can see this kind of head and shoulders look in there because the cycles do to do make these things form and you can take our cycle analysis workshop we have a special now and you can learn about how these formations occur based on cycle theory so this is already pointing to the downside again this points out to the end of november when i look at the weekly timing this very well could point out to come down over here towards the end of november so this is a very bad looking uh chart and you could see in here the slim ribbon po here on the daily gave you this downside arrow and it's red it clearly tells you the momentum is on the downside and that and that the resumptions of momentum are the downside and here you could see this the option bias indicator which kept you on the long side for a long period of time turned red here a few days ago and that is now warning you that you should be biasing your positions to the short side if you're a trader so that is the nasdaq uh as we look at the weekly and daily so again this is the nasdaq you could see that very negative pattern right there this is the spx you could see that pattern in there not quite as negative but certainly about to be and looking really bad and these point out to possibly lows uh in early november and then later in november for this uh declining phase that i see here in the stock market so that's the s p 500 and the nasdaq now take a look at the rsp look what happened here as the tech stocks are getting hammered look at this bullish formation right over here in this broad market that shows you where it turned up right over here on this daily chart and uh that is it's just so interesting how that uh is shows the money flowing into the broader stock market and that's why we see this stronger advanced declines and now looking like we can get into a period on here where the next several days this is likely to have a pullback but then probably up again so this looks to me like the potential for more compound top or favorable period in here because this certainly looks like it'll pull back here into uh late october possibly early november and then begin to uh another try on the upside so if you look at the the broad market there in the rsp this is a bullish pattern i just showed you the bearish patterns on the s p 500 and the nasdaq now look at the dow dji and you can see wow almost the same thing incredibly strong and this saying well this could pull back into early november that's in line with the other ones we're looking at right in here and then after that it would probably try to get to the upside here so what this says to me is that there it's possible that this gets overdone in here and it gets to have a pullback and everything moves down together into early november uh the rsp the dow jones industrial averages and then the s p 500 and the nasdaq which looks like it will align in here for a pullback into this early november period and then the question is how much can they rebound and will the decline actually go into late november which is uh what i believe is the stronger alignments and i showed that in the previous update so right now one of the biggest rotational mixed markets i've ever seen clearly we have a condition where the uh money has moved from the high techs and ai stocks and mega caps into a lot of the consumer cyclicals and interest sensitives and that's just been a giant rotation and overall it's benefited the broad market even though it looks like the s p 500 and the nasdaq are in pretty dire shape let's see if they all get together on the downside and we get some sizable moves to the downside into the election or they begin to stabilize i can't tell you that because the market is so mixed right now all i can tell you is that my gut feeling is that based on everything i see in here there's probably going to be some washout on the downside where they all get together and sell them into that election time period and then try to rebound that's my best instinct that tells me that's what's coming and that's what i have right now because these things are so mixed as i look at them so uh that's a look at that now let's take a look here at our market condition monitor our important and amazing application available to level three and level four members i have this set now to intermediate so you can be on the trader type or the time frame type as you see right over there i like to use the trader type and uh you can either look at all the securities or the stocks or the etfs just absolutely crazy amazing and uh the uh i think it's important that uh if you like to um have important notifications about when these things are changing you get this application because you can download our desktop application and get notified uh when you think something is changing so in this case because i think that the iwm and the dow are going to be moving into a negative condition i want to be notified of that but i want to be notified of that uh in the short term so let's go to short term right over here and let's see i have some notifications in here so i have them switch to bearish and i'm just going to have the bearish one on there uh let me just uh take that off of there and now the iwm i want to let it let me know when it goes to slightly bearish is what i want so i'm just going to fix these it'll alert me when that happens slightly bearish is what i want to have right over there and uh let's just uh switch the dow and get this over to uh slightly bearish onto that one okay so now i have that set up and the system is going to notify me when those things occur uh they'll send a push notification here on my desktop so that's uh how you just use this let's take a look here now if you were a short-term trader uh let's say an interday trader a scalper or a interday swing trader let's go to interday right over here and you can see you know this is telling you what the conditions are in here if you get our day trader application which is astounding uh that will then uh also help you with this and you could actually look uh if you were a level four member at the intra at the uh intraday right there and yeah those are uh that takes in the uh very short term uh this is the near term which is the uh swing trader for inner four day or day trader and this is the inner day which takes in all the way down to the three minute chart so just a great way to see what's going on let's switch over to short term now and we're going to look at all and we're going to look at the trade setup conditions these are the ones that are very bullish right now let's just scroll down here a little bit so that you can see which of these are in very bullish short-term conditions so this would be you know the next several days to a couple of weeks that's what you're looking at there's apple in there i can't believe that one is holding up with a two thousand dollar uh foldable uh and uh ebay has done super well look at that uh you can see these all that are strong in their paypal wow and let's look at the very bearish ones and you can see them come up there so this is for the short term if you were day trading of course and you wanted to know what's going on uh for the near term right there then you would switch that you can just look at the setup conditions right there and look at this the top one right over there is the semiconductors that we talked about if you didn't watch the set the piece i did on semiconductors go back and watch it and you'll see the uh very significantly negative conditions and the cautionary conditions that i'm talking about there's micron in there you could see very bearish smh very bearish this is all intraday remember the purpose of this read would be for you to see the ones that you might want to be shorting intraday which ones might you want to be buying intraday well the ones that are very bullish in there uh axp dow see these are a lot of uh consumer cyclicals and cyclicals that you see in there interest sensitive because they're doing better today interesting lululemon's having a better day coca-cola chubb lows so those are intraday right there so again uh let's look at just the short term and you can see uh the uh stock market is right there and these are the uh short-term conditions that you see as the s p 500 is slightly bearish the qqq is bearish iw is neutral and the dow is bullish that's our amazing market condition monitor please do become a level three or four member uh to get that i hope that you enjoyed everything that i showed you today and uh make sure that you take a look at our cycle analysis special offer that we have right now for that workshop and to go back and watch that special that i did earlier in this show and it's probably a separate clip on youtube uh that talks about the semiconductor stocks and illustrating using cycle analysis if you're new get acquainted sign up for our snapshot light it's free matt sent you analysis on the s p 500 every single day in your email no cost no credit card uh go to youtube subscribe to our channel click the notification bell and do like this video give it a thumbs up on x follow me at ask slim and for our members uh to become a member and find out about our specials anything on our education and analysis write to matt at ask slim dot com