Trump’s ‘speech today was a knife in the creation’ of UN order: Political Scientist SLAMS address

[0:00] All right. Joining us, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, Ian Bremmer. [0:04] Ian, thanks for sticking around for us. I know they're trying to kick you out of there. [0:10] I appreciate it. How does the president say in one breath he's a peacemaker and then in the next that he wants to annihilate Iran? [0:19] Well, I mean, he said it repeatedly. There's no news here. [0:21] He said, I'm not sure annihilation is better or worse than the threat to destroy their civilization, which he also didn't do. [0:28] But I mean, the outcome, which is the important thing over the last six months, the most notable piece of the U.S.-Iran war is how comparatively constrained the United States has been in not engaging in military escalation to send troops in, to take the oil from Karg Island, to, you know, sort of to take to escalate and go after, assassinate more Iranian leaders. [0:49] All of which he has threatened at various points, none of which he wants to do because he understands that the direct response in terms of impact on global energy prices and on global supply chains and, of course, on critical infrastructure for America's allies in the Gulf. [1:06] He doesn't want to tolerate any of that pain. So that that's where we are, irrespective of what he happens to be saying, you know, if and then during the course of his speech. [1:15] How much power does he wield? [1:16] Less than he did a few months ago. I think peak Trump on the global stage was back in January when Maduro was forcibly taken out of Caracas and the regime was essentially changed by the United States, opposed to China, Cuba, towards the United States and U.S. oil companies, the free markets and the rest. [1:39] I think going forward, it got a lot harder, certainly with Iran. [1:44] It's gotten more challenging with the Canadians. It's gotten more challenging with Greenland, as we've just seen. [1:48] It's gotten more challenging. And of course, the fact that he only has a couple of years left. [1:51] The guy's 80 years old and many leaders on the global stage, not just longstanding dictators, but even some leaders that have been elected democratically, like Mark Carney in Canada, know that they're going to be in power for much longer than Trump. [2:03] So they are now starting to actively manage for what does our long term relationship with the United States looks like post Trump. [2:11] And as the more countries and more leaders that do that, the less flexibility that Trump has. [2:17] The exception to that is on artificial intelligence, where the unwillingness of Trump to engage in any sort of governance or regulatory structure in an environment where AI tech companies in the U.S. [2:28] are moving with both feet on the accelerator and it's going to have so much disruptive impact on geopolitics and the global economy. [2:36] Their two more years of Trump really, really does matter, Katie. [2:39] But on these other issues, it's significantly reduced than what we had seen in his first year and a half plus. [2:46] So what do they do about that? [2:47] I mean, if it is as immediate a threat as it seems to be and the president is unwilling to even entertain the idea of a global of global coordination on it, what do what does the rest of the world do about it? [3:01] Well, the Chinese don't do much. [3:02] They allow the Americans to have internal disagreements, both among the companies themselves, with Mark Zuckerberg on one side, Dario Amadei on the other and everybody lining up behind one or two, [3:11] or with Americans increasingly angry about AI and calling for slowdown, calling for steps that by themselves would hurt the United States, even though you'd want to see coordination globally in coordination with the Chinese. [3:25] Look, absent that, what you're going to see is some form of AI crisis that then we respond to. [3:32] It's not the best way to govern. [3:34] I do think that the meeting upcoming between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will go very well, but it's going to go well because Trump, the things that Trump wants are largely short term. [3:43] It's like wants to own TikTok because that algorithmic control matters to him, wants lots of soybean purchases from farmers in red states because that helps him in upcoming elections with his supporters, while Xi Jinping is thinking about Taiwan. [3:57] He's thinking about control and influence over multilateral institutions like the United Nations, where the Americans don't care as much right now. [4:04] And it's very easy to get a short term agreement between the world's two most powerful leaders when one of them is thinking about just just the decisions in front of his face in six and 12 months time. [4:13] And the other one is thinking about legacy decisions for 10 and 20 years down the road. [4:18] In terms of the next two years that Donald Trump is still in power, are the nations preparing or worried about or anticipating any sort of impulsiveness by this president? [4:30] Anything more erratic from him over the next two years as his power wanes and as he ages? [4:39] I would say yes, but they also see that he's constrained. [4:42] I mean, this is a president that put the largest tariffs on countries all over the world in almost 100 years. [4:48] And then it turned out both because China hit back hard and because the Supreme Court ruled that IEPA, that trade function for national security was illegal, had to be rolled off. [4:58] And because a whole bunch of Americans with influence and money were able to get exemptions, turned out that Trump had to roll it back. [5:05] Trump says, I want Greenland. [5:06] He makes a big announcement today, gets a deal done. [5:09] Americans don't get Greenland. [5:10] So despite the impulsiveness, it's the constraint that most of these leaders are increasingly seeing and that most of these leaders are increasingly aligning with. [5:18] Mark Carney says he's going to be skating to where the puck is going to be. [5:21] I think you're going to see more countries doing that. [5:23] What was the most consequential thing you saw today? [5:26] Most consequential thing is when President Trump spoke about Venezuela, said to the victor goes the spoils, which is the way he sees Iran. [5:36] It's the way he sees AI, but it's absolutely antithetical to the reason the United States set up the United Nations after World War II. [5:44] There it was to the victor goes responsibility for governance and stability and peace for not just the United States, but for the whole world. [5:52] That's why this organization behind me exists. [5:56] And President Trump, frankly, his speech today was a knife in the creation of that order. [6:02] You couldn't have said something that was more problematic for what the Americans used to stand for on the ashes of the Second World War that we won. [6:10] Not to put you in a precarious spot, but you're standing at the U.N. [6:14] How much power does the U.N. still have? [6:18] The United Nations doesn't have power. [6:21] It's a reflection of all of the countries in the world. [6:23] And if those countries are more fragmented, if those countries are less willing to take leadership, then, of course, the group of member states together, 193 of them, will be less effective. [6:32] That's not the fault of the United Nations. [6:33] That's the governments that are elected or that have dictatorships all over the world. [6:38] This organization, it's us. [6:40] Don't pretend it's some external entity. [6:42] All right. [6:43] Ian Bremmer, thank you so much. [6:44] And our thanks to everybody at the U.N. for allowing you to stick around for a couple minutes longer. [6:48] I appreciate your time, as always. [6:50] Good to see you, Katie. [6:51] My pleasure. [6:52] All right. [6:52] Coming up, what happens when Americans stop trusting their government? [6:56] I have a wife and four kids. [7:02] If anything ever happens to me, I want them taken care of. [7:05] That's why I have life insurance. 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