Trump: U.S. in 'serious' talks with Iran, Iranian officials insist no negotiations underway

[0:00] MSNOW's David Noriega joins us from Jerusalem and also with us MSNOW senior national security [0:05] reporter David Rhoad and MSNOW military analyst Colonel Jack Jacobs. Guys, just in the past 24 [0:12] hours, the Washington Post reports the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran. [0:18] The Wall Street Journal reports the president is weighing a mission to extract nearly a thousand [0:22] pounds of uranium from Iran. And now the president is threatening Iran's civilian infrastructure. [0:28] David Rhoad, just how much of an escalation is all of this? [0:32] It's a serious escalation. And the question is, are these serious operations that the [0:36] president's going to launch? If that's true, it'd be strange to telegraph them publicly. [0:41] But I do think there's negotiations going on with Pakistan. The Pakistanis are trying to [0:46] mediate things. And the focus there is how do you reopen the Strait of Hormuz? That's the one [0:51] thing that could maybe be the core of a ceasefire. But there's deep distrust from the Iranians. [0:56] They've negotiated twice. [0:58] With the United States in the last two years and then been bombed. And then I just want to flag [1:02] something the president's said about his the way he's describing these negotiations. He said this [1:09] to reporters. Have a listen. We're negotiating now and be great if we could do something. But [1:19] they have to open it up. They have to open up the Strait of Trump. I mean, Hormuz. Excuse me. [1:30] I'm so sorry. Such a terrible mistake. The fake news will say he accidentally said [1:37] that. There's no accidents with me. Not too many. [1:42] It's that kind of joking that, you know, 1500 Iranians have died. This is according to the [1:49] human rights groups that was tracking deaths also during the protests. So they're pretty [1:53] reliable. And so that's the thing that sort of alienates Iranians. And again, just a lack of [1:59] trust. They have negotiated twice for the United States in the last two years. Each negotiation [2:04] ended with U.S. airstrikes. Colonel, your reaction to hearing the president talk about renaming the [2:09] Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Trump? That's where his head is at. Well, I think very few [2:14] people take the things that he says seriously until he begins to actually act. So we haven't [2:22] renamed the Gulf of Mexico and we haven't renamed anything. And I'm not going to. It's sort of got [2:29] an adolescent sense of humor, which which was amusing some time ago is no longer amusing. [2:36] And here we are talking about real lives. [2:39] On the line and the impacts that could have really an impact that would reshape a region [2:45] that could have implications for the U.S. and vulnerabilities here at home for years to come [2:50] because of this military effort and this new reporting, Colonel, that the U.S. may be considering [2:57] ground operations. Can you explain the difference between like a ground operation and a full scale [3:02] invasion? Well, we we don't have the the troops for the latter. I mean, we've got [3:09] conventional troops amounting to probably maybe two brigades worth submarines and some of the 82nd [3:16] Airborne Division, which used to be my old unit. As a matter of fact, the division ready force, [3:22] an insufficient number of troops to conduct the kinds of operations one would expect from [3:27] conventional troops, and that is to seize and hold terrain for some period of time. Instead, [3:34] our focus is much more likely if we're going to do anything at all on the use of special [3:39] operations forces, Navy SEAL teams. [3:41] Rangers and others to conduct the kinds of things they're really good at, which is raids to grab some [3:50] control, let's say, of the fissile material in a couple of locations, which, by the way, is going [3:55] to take much longer than those kinds of troops are used to because all that stuff has to be bulldozed [4:02] and unearthed. And how would they stay protected during that? And that's that's a major consideration. [4:10] The instant that you put any American asset, [4:13] anywhere, it's immediately a fixed asset. And the Iranians have been husbanding their [4:19] resources, particularly the their missiles for exactly this eventuality. The Americans are going [4:26] to have troops on the ground, Karg Island, some other locations, and they're going to be there [4:32] for more than 28 microseconds. And they're going to unleash all their missiles on top of the [4:37] those locations. So the use of any troops, whether that's conventional troops or special [4:42] operations troops, is a big problem. [4:44] Huge risk. David Noriega, how are Israeli officials reacting to these reported plans [4:51] by the Pentagon? And what role could they play in a potential U.S. ground operation? [4:55] Well, Ana, Israeli political and military officials have actually been quite quiet about [5:04] the possibility of a ground invasion by the U.S. and about whether Israel or to what extent [5:08] Israel might participate in such an operation. And I think one thing we need to take into [5:13] account when assessing Israel's position, should that be the case, is whether or not [5:16] that come to pass, is that the IDF is not fighting one war like the United States is. [5:22] They're fighting at least two wars when you consider the fact that they are currently [5:25] expanding their ground incursion in Lebanon, where they are, in fact, seizing and holding [5:30] territory. And then when you consider, additionally, that they're still occupying about half of [5:34] Gaza, and even last week had to pull troops from the Lebanese front to the West Bank to [5:40] deal with some of the rising issues with settler violence there against Palestinians, the IDF [5:45] is understripped. [5:46] In fact, there was some reporting in Israeli media last week that the chief of staff of [5:52] the Israel Defense Forces warned political leaders in Israel's security cabinet that [5:57] if something didn't change significantly, then the IDF would be potentially facing a [6:01] crisis in terms of manpower and resources in this war. This is connected, by the way, [6:07] to an interesting political dynamic here in Israel, where there are rifts within Prime [6:10] Minister Netanyahu's own party about whether ultra-Orthodox Jews should be drafted to fight [6:16] in these conflicts. [6:16] At this point, they're exempt from that, and they continue to be exempt from that. [6:20] It's one of the ways that Netanyahu has to keep some of the far-right members of his [6:25] coalition in that coalition. [6:27] But this is going to be a huge question. If the United States does, in fact, launch this [6:32] major escalation by putting troops on the ground somewhere, we can't assume that Israel [6:36] is going to participate and contribute to that ground incursion, even though what I've [6:40] been hearing consistently from IDF spokespersons since I've been here is that Israel and the [6:44] U.S. are in lockstep in this war. [6:46] I will say, lastly, Ana, that I did ask the IDF directly whether they would or would not [6:51] or can comment in any way on whether they would participate in a ground incursion alongside [6:54] the U.S., and they're not answering the question. [6:56] AMNA NAWAZ David Noriega, you mentioned that the Israeli [7:00] operation inside southern Lebanon is expanding. [7:03] Fill us in. [7:04] Tell us more about that. [7:07] DAVID NORIEGA Well, there have been really important developments [7:10] on that front in just the last few days. [7:12] Today, the first U.N. peacekeeper in southern Lebanon was killed in that operation, in Israeli [7:18] airstrikes. [7:19] Over the weekend, three journalists and nine paramedics were also killed. [7:23] The nine paramedics figure comes from the World Health Organization. [7:27] Last week, when I spoke to an IDF spokesperson, he told me that Israel's military position [7:31] in southern Lebanon was defensive. [7:33] But then, yesterday, we heard Prime Minister Netanyahu in a video address say that they [7:36] were moving from a defensive to an offensive position in southern Lebanon. [7:41] One thing I will say that I have been paying attention to is that there are also some rumblings, [7:46] significant ones, in Israel around political questions. [7:49] Surrounding the question of whether Israel should actually expand its official borders [7:53] into southern Lebanon, there are some relatively fringe, but not insignificant groups in Israel [7:58] calling for the full annexation of southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. [8:04] These are some of the same groups who have been calling for the full annexation of Gaza. [8:07] These are political dynamics that, again, Prime Minister Netanyahu has to consider, [8:11] particularly when it comes to keeping people like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, [8:15] the far-right members of his coalition, in line. [8:17] And it's something that we have to consider. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:18] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:19] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:19] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:19] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:19] DAVID NORIEGA Thank you. [8:19] DAVID NORIEGA It's something that many in the international community have concerns about. [8:22] But what we can say for right now is that, militarily, Israel's operations in southern Lebanon [8:26] are escalating and growing territorially as well, Anna. [8:29] ANNA CHINES And there are political considerations for Iran. [8:32] There are political considerations for the U.S. as well. [8:35] Iran's parliament speaker was quoted as saying, quote, [8:38] Our men are waiting for the arrival of American soldiers on the ground to set them on fire. [8:44] David wrote, [8:45] If the U.S. were to put troops on the ground, [8:48] Is that something that would require congressional approval? [8:53] I'm sure Democrats are going to make that argument. [8:55] This has now gone on for a month. [8:58] Many Americans are at risk, so I think they will push the president on that. [9:01] And then it's up to, you know, will the handful of Republican moderates, Senator Murkowski from Alaska, Tom Tillis from North Carolina, would they switch parties on that vote? [9:11] If the U.S. were to come under attack, I mean, he's talking about setting American troops on fire. [9:17] Colonel, I mean, what's the move by the U.S.? [9:20] Is that what then triggers a ground invasion? [9:23] Well, we have to remember that our troops, of which we have something like 50,000 in the region, and almost always have no fewer than 30,000 there, have already come under attack since this war began. [9:37] So there's no expectation that that's going to change. [9:40] Like I said, the Iranians are husbanding their resources, particularly missiles, [9:46] so that they can come under attack. [9:47] And it's not going to just take the form of counterattacking of American troops who happen to be on Iranian soil. [9:54] It's going to be all over the Middle East. [9:57] Plus, there are also, they're liable to be individual terroristic acts that are motivated by whatever the United States does and what Iran wants to have happen. [10:08] So this, putting American troops on the ground in the region, but particularly in Iran, is going to have a very deleterious effect on national security. [10:18] And our national security strategy, generally, because we do not have a plan of how to react under those circumstances. [10:28] We're not going to reinstate the draft and send 200,000 troops to the Middle East. [10:34] The president has seemed to imply that it would be very easy to take Kark Island. [10:38] And he's talked about, he told the Financial Times, I'd like to take the oil from Iran. [10:44] Seizing Kark Island would be a part of that strategy, is how he's described it. [10:48] Compare it to the oil. [10:48] Compare it to how the U.S. went into Venezuela and, you know, is now kind of taking control there after Maduro was captured. [10:56] Is this anything like Venezuela, David Rode? [10:59] It's completely different. [11:00] And so the U.S. could seize Kark Island, these 2,500 Marines that have come in. [11:05] But then, as the general said, the Iranians will rain down drones and ballistic missiles. [11:10] And if the U.S. destroys that energy infrastructure, again, this is this escalation dynamic where the Iranians don't back down, they escalate. [11:17] If we destroy Kark Island, they will attack, they will attack the largest natural gas facility in the world, that's in Qatar, they will attack oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, they'll attack ports, and that makes this energy crisis not a weeks-long problem, but a months-long problem. [11:35] So it's, where is the long-term strategy? [11:38] That's the question.